We can't guess the odds, because we don't know how many people are registering and for which tiers they are registering for. I think. Let x be the # of people in for 1st tier and only first tier, y is 2nd tier and not third tier, and z equal those in 3rd tier. So x + y + z = total number of tickets...

Thanks trilobyte.

...And of course, the reality of how many people act is somewhat irrational. There will be people who will enter at say the $240 level, but once they lose, express regret and be ready to pay much more in the secondary sale or after market.. Why is this irrational? Here was my reasoning: [*] Tier 3 ...

This reminds me of math problems in my college Probably And Statistics class (which i nearly failed). Has anyone else calculated the odds for each tier? I remember seeing a Math camp last year on the playa. I registered at the $240 level (before reading this thread), my basic calculations showed odd...