After sleeping on it for a couple of days, I think I know why many of us don't like the lottery system.
Being a system, it can be gamed. Average Burners of average means will be the most disadvantaged.
The participants in the lottery will be Burners and Speculators. Burners want tickets for themselves, many at the lowest possible price; Speculators (scalpers, but read on) want to buy at a sufficiently low price that they can resell for a profit or use profitably.
In the first round, you can buy tickets for $420. These are almost entirely valueless to speculators because the event would have to sell out for themto be worth face value, and even then it's a gamble to see if you can get enough to compensate for the purchase, delivery costs, paying proxies, etc. They are good for people putting together $10,000 packages, where the the ticket is a minor part of the cost, and, similarly, for key members of theme camps whose expenses are so gargantuan that assuring their attendance is worth the $30 extra over the third tier.
Then there's the main lottery. Here's the flaw: The $240 tickets are VERY valuable to scalpers, since they can mark them up quite a bit before they hit the second tier, let alone the third tier. If you score a $240 ticket, you can sell it for $300 and still come in at less than the second tier, and, probably more to the point, you can sell it for $320 to $350 and still be markedly cheaper than the third tier and turn a nice profit. You don't need the event to sell out for these tickets to be valuable, all you need is for 28,001 people to want to go.
The second tier is more of a gamble for out-and-out scalpers, but there's another category of speculator that would be interested in the bottom two tiers: theme camps. I'm guessing most camps are like mine, they can always use a few extra tickets to trade for labor and to provide for key members who are in economic trouble. As this is money that would otherwise be spent on the camp budget, you'd much rather pay $240 or $320 for extra tickets than $390. If you can save an average $100 on 5 tickets, that's $500, which is real money for most theme camps.
So here's what I see: there will be a LOT of bids at $240. If you're a scalper, it's the only way to go, and there's no reason not to go heavy. They'll offer proxies $20, $25 per ticket, so if you're a starving college student or whatever, you can earn $40 or $50 for bidding for 2 tix. Even with $20 shipping and handling, that's still costing the scalpers below $300, so they can sell for $350 and make a pretty low-risk profit.
For theme camps, the math is even more attractive. You get your non-Burner friends to put in for either of the bottom two tiers, while the members with their acts together bid at all three levels. We'll assume that most people who bid $390 will actually get their tickets for $390 (and if not, there's another chance) and that a few people who bid at the lower tiers will get theirs. There is a small risk that you end up with too many tickets, but pretty much those will be low-priced tickets, so you can sell them for less than $390, which should be do-able even if the event doesn't sell out. If it DOES sell out, then you sell the $390 tickets and keep the cheaper ones.
Finally, because $240 is so much less than the other tiers, especially the third, there will be Burners of limited means who won't bid at the $390 level and maybe not at the $320 level (for a couple, that's $780 or $640 vs. $480). They'll all pile in at $240 -- because if you decide not to go, you can always sell the ticket for what you paid for it plus s/h.
It used to be that the first- and second-tier tickets went to early purchasers, but now there's no specific reward for being early, just a penalty for being late -- you'll DEFINITELY pay $390 or you won't get a ticket except from a scalper.
From the Bmorg's point of view, the lottery looks the same, three tiers at increasing prices, but for bidders, your odds of scoring a first tier ticket is pretty low. The weighted average price of the available tickets is $326.25, but for the average bidder, who only needs tickets for personal use, the most likely outcome is $390.
(cross posting this on Tribe)