Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

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Finxiekins
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Finxiekins » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:19 pm

troyboyperez wrote:My girlfriend just got the email! We got two $320 tickets!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :mrgreen:
WOOHOO! They're in the second tier! YAY!

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jorgebongo
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by jorgebongo » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:19 pm

Thanks, that helps
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by The CO » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:20 pm

ORed & I got 2 @ $390!

See y'all at TTITD!
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Savannah » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:20 pm

Yaaaaaaaaay!
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Minxy
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Minxy » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:21 pm

BBadger wrote:Drawing the third tier first makes the most sense to increase the odds of people who can only afford those tickets. I do wonder if the knowledge of that would've changed peoples' strategies, and if the drawing order was purposely suppressed?
They specifically said they were not going to do that. So much so that Trilo PMed me about it when I complained that the wording was vague, REASSURING me they were being pulled bottom Tier first. So...I dunno.

/grumble
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Finxiekins
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Finxiekins » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:21 pm

jella wrote:My email account is "experiencing technical difficluties" aaaaauuuuuggghhhh

edit to add.........wwwaaaaaaaahhhhhoooooooooooooo we got 2
320.00 ea
That's awesome Jella! I've been rooting for you! I just called my bank and they said my card is good until midnight, and if they're in second tier that gives me a HUGE chance! So glad to hear you got your tickets.

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5280MeV
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by 5280MeV » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:21 pm

Image

Yeee-Hawww! I'm going to Burning Man!
Image

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Nipple
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Nipple » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:23 pm

Minxy wrote:
BBadger wrote:Drawing the third tier first makes the most sense to increase the odds of people who can only afford those tickets. I do wonder if the knowledge of that would've changed peoples' strategies, and if the drawing order was purposely suppressed?
They specifically said they were not going to do that. So much so that Trilo PMed me about it when I complained that the wording was vague, REASSURING me they were being pulled bottom Tier first. So...I dunno.

/grumble
They could have pulled everything already, and are just now running the credit cards in reverse order.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by MedullaB » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:25 pm

I would have like to have seen it go from top tier to bottom - but if I were placing money on this, I'd wager that they randomly selected all tiers at the same time at the beginning of this process (how hard is it to randomly select 'winners'?) then started processing the biggest $'s first.

Well, that's what I see in my crystal ball anyway...

Still waiting... not even a victoria secret email yet.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by 7chix&me » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:26 pm

Ok, so it took about 5 hours to go from $390 to $320. I figure it will take another 5 hours for the $320s and then a couple more for the $240s. That will be sometime after midnight, but before I get up in the morning. Hopefully we'll ALL know where we stand by morning.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Savannah » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:26 pm

jella wrote:My email account is "experiencing technical difficluties" aaaaauuuuuggghhhh

edit to add.........wwwaaaaaaaahhhhhoooooooooooooo we got 2
320.00 ea
Yay Jellalallalaaa! :D
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Woo-hoo!



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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by BBadger » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:28 pm

tinydancr wrote:
BBadger wrote:Drawing the third tier first makes the most sense to increase the odds of people who can only afford those tickets. I do wonder if the knowledge of that would've changed peoples' strategies, and if the drawing order was purposely suppressed?
i feel like this is a math word problem, and I got a C in statistics. Elaborate?
I did poorly in that subject too! However, here's the idea:

Drawing tiers from cheapest to most expensive would means you have a lower probability of receiving a cheaper-tiered ticket because everybody is eligible for the cheaper tiers. For example, if X people signed up for T1, T2, and T3, Y people signed up for T1 and T2, and Z people signed up for T1, then X + Y + Z people would all be vying for those cheaper tickets.

Now reverse the order. At each drawing, the number of people eligible for the cheaper tiers reduces. Assuming there are enough tickets, a person in group Y would not need to compete with people in group X because those people had already received their tickets. A person in group Z would not need to compete with anyone from group Z.

To put things to numbers: assume 15,000 people signed up to be eligible for T3, T2, and T1; 15,000 signed up for only T2 and T1, and 10,000 signed up for T1 exclusively. In the most-expensive-drawn-first order, everybody would receive their ticket at exactly the highest price they could afford. This is ideally how it should work in the "take the highest price you can." In a cheapest-tier-drawn-first ordering, 10,000 T1 tickets would be spread randomly among all 40,000 people who signed up, 15,000 T2 tickets would be spread among a remaining 30,000 minus whomever could only afford T1 tickets and did not receive a ticket. Then the remaining tickets would go to whoever was left of the 15,000 people who signed up for T3 and below. We'd probably have extra tickets for the main sale in that drawing order.

How would that affect your decision?

Assume your goal is to maximize the chances of drawing a cheaper ticket, not just get a ticket at all; however, you're still willing to pay for a full ticket if you have to. Under the cheapest-drawn-first order, you might as well just sign up for the most expensive tier because everybody has an equal chance at a cheaper tier. However, in the most-expensive-drawn-first, you might consider taking your chances and only signing up for cheaper tiers, because the probability of receiving a cheaper-tiered ticket is increased over the other drawing order (and you could buy the full-priced ticket in the open sale if you didn't win).

BMOrg made a smart decision in drawing most expensive to least expensive in the context of sparing cheapest tickets for those who needed them most. However, stating or implying that cheapest tickets would be drawn first could have important consequences on tier-choice decisions.

What I'm most surprised about is that while people suggested selling tickets most expensive to least expensive, few people suggested drawing most expensive to least expensive.
Last edited by BBadger on Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Jackass » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:28 pm

7chix&me wrote:Ok, so it took about 5 hours to go from $390 to $320. I figure it will take another 5 hours for the $320s and then a couple more for the $240s. That will be sometime after midnight, but before I get up in the morning. Hopefully we'll ALL know where we stand by morning.
Don't count your chix till they hatch, pun intended :?
Last edited by Jackass on Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Mosquitopilate » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:29 pm

I am trying to keep positive but every hour I feel like it is slipping away- (7:30 PM in Pittsburgh,Pa) Nothing Yet
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Thanks to all that made BM 2012 great. You people are the best on planet earth )'( )'( )'(

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by stefuhnee » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:29 pm

ahhh... really hope i get to make it this year! it has been a few years...

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by illy dilly » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:31 pm

HELL YEAH!!!!!!
2 tickets at $320 each!!!
Requested 2 tickets at max $320 each.

We'll see everyone Thursday Night August 30th!!!!

Good luck everyone!!! Stick with it!!!
Last edited by illy dilly on Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by jella » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:33 pm

Finxiekins wrote:
jella wrote:My email account is "experiencing technical difficluties" aaaaauuuuuggghhhh

edit to add.........wwwaaaaaaaahhhhhoooooooooooooo we got 2
320.00 ea
That's awesome Jella! I've been rooting for you! I just called my bank and they said my card is good until midnight, and if they're in second tier that gives me a HUGE chance! So glad to hear you got your tickets.
Thanks...I'm rooting for you too finxiekins, I'm sure your card will be fine :)
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Bounce530 » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:34 pm

I hear ya Mosquitopilate, but it'll work out in the end, there will be plenty of tix around if we don't get them tonight.
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Killbuck » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:34 pm

Que the crickets
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by amarantha » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:35 pm

I got two $390 tickets; email came through at 3:36 Pacific time. Was really hoping for $240 but whatever. Good to have tickets.
Last edited by amarantha on Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by piehole » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:35 pm

illy dilly wrote:HELL YEAH!!!!!!
2 tickets at $320 each!!!

We'll see everyone Thursday Night August 30th!!!!

Good luck everyone!!! Stick with it!!!

CONGRATS!!!! Patiently waiting for an email here :D :D :D :D
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by 7chix&me » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:36 pm

Jackass wrote:
7chix&me wrote:Ok, so it took about 5 hours to go from $390 to $320. I figure it will take another 5 hours for the $320s and then a couple more for the $240s. That will be sometime after midnight, but before I get up in the morning. Hopefully we'll ALL know where we stand by morning.
Don't count your chix till they hatch, pun intended :?
Oh, I'm counting on burning...one way or another!
But I'll leave the chix at home--too many feathers! Plus I don't like my chicken burned :wink:
Last edited by 7chix&me on Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Savannah » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:36 pm

Yay, Illy Dilly! Say hi to Smashley for me! :D

Congratulations, Amarantha!


. . . Stay positive, folks! There will be an official thread for sadness and commiseration too, but it's too soon for that--unless you want to use one of the any dozen threads already out there (there are 4 pages of threads on ePlaya for 2012 Tickets)!

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Ratty » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:37 pm

Still waiting on the west coast. Thinking, re-thinking. Smiling.
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by cheyenne88 » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:38 pm

Can you explain something to me? I apply for the 390$ tier, does that mean that I still have a chance for the 320$ and the 240$???
thank you for your help.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Ratty » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:38 pm

yup
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by illy dilly » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:39 pm

BBadger wrote: To put things to numbers: assume 15,000 people signed up to be eligible for T3, T2, and T1; 15,000 signed up for only T2 and T1, and 10,000 signed up for T1 exclusively. In the most-expensive-drawn-first order, everybody would receive their ticket at exactly the highest price they could afford. This is ideally how it should work in the "take the highest price you can." In a cheapest-tier-drawn-first ordering, 10,000 T1 tickets would be spread randomly among all 40,000 people who signed up, 15,000 T2 tickets would be spread among a remaining 30,000 minus whomever could only afford T1 tickets and did not receive a ticket. Then the remaining tickets would go to whoever was left of the 15,000 people who signed up for T3 and below. We'd probably have extra tickets for the main sale in that drawing order.
...
BMOrg made a smart decision in drawing most expensive to least expensive in the context of sparing cheapest tickets for those who needed them most. However, stating or implying that cheapest tickets would be drawn first could have important consequences on tier-choice decisions.
My understanding was that folks who could only afford T1 would be drawn from the T1 ticket pool, then if any T1 tickets were still available, they would be added to the T2 ticket pool. Then all the T2 people would have a shot at T2 tickets. If there were any left then they would go to the T3 ticket pool.
But if there were more requests for only Tier 1 than Tier 1 tickets available, then there would be no 'left overs' to move on to the Tier 2 pool. Same goes for requests for Tier 2 and available Tier 2 tickets. So in essence, all Tiers could start drawing at the same time.

But what your explaining makes a hell of a lot of sense.

Whats really interesting is that Tier 3($390) and Tier 1($280) were receiving confirmations first?

What would be interesting is to see who got a ticket from a tier lower than what they selected as their max ticket price?
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by gravityzero » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:41 pm

Should I feel good for a friend that got 2 tier III tickets? .... Yeah. I've already congratulated him on his victory. Here's to wishful thinking.
Hope to see everyone on the playa. :D
I feel like I've finally arrived... wait it's not August.

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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by illy dilly » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:42 pm

piehole wrote: CONGRATS!!!! Patiently waiting for an email here :D :D :D :D
Savannah wrote:Yay, Illy Dilly! Say hi to Smashley for me! :D
Thank you very much!
Hold tight!!! There are a lot of tickets to distribute.
Good Luck, I'm sure the good Karma will bring you both a ticket!!!!
Last edited by illy dilly on Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official "Awarded Tickets" Thread

Post by Dusty McShroomface » Tue Jan 31, 2012 4:42 pm

Got my 2 tickets to paradise... @ my highest tier $320 each at 4:30 pm PST
Thank you all for keeping me entertained and hopeful today as I was going back and forth between this thread and my email.

See you at the Music Savages camp!
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