It doesn't matter whether people put in for one or two tickets, the numbers are the same.
Based on results from our relatively small camp and friends, and news that many people that are new, perhaps friends and family also put in for tickets, as well as a few casual scalpers who aren't weeded out:
Personal estimate is 40K ticket requests by 22K people for $240, 35K ticket requests by 20K people for $320, 25K ticket requests by 17K people for $390.
I truly hope the scalpers and casual scalpers are very, very aggressively weeded out! After some very basic math:
If request $240 tickets: 10% chance of $240, 90% chance of no tickets
If request $320 tickets: 10% chance of $240, 25% chance of $320 tickets, 65% chance of no tickets
If request $390 tickets: 10% chance of $240, 25% chance of $320, 60% chance of $390 tickets, 5% chance of no tickets
The good news is that many of the ones requesting $240 tickets, which includes a lot of the friends, family, and casual scalpers, won't apply for follow on sales or lotteries, so the number of people who need tickets at that point should relatively match the tickets available. I hope the the follow on sales are just non-transferable rights to a ticket to be held at will-call.
Whatever, we'll find out within a couple days by the firestorm that may erupt on these boards and people putting out actual sampled numbers from their campmates and friends. By Thursday facts about this will talk, bullcrap will walk, and some people should apologize for previous statements
What are your guesses?