5280MeV wrote:I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012.
So my thought is that people are incorrectly focusing on the actual BRC population growth curve of each individual year to talk about the perceived demand for tickets. But the fact is that each individual year's population only represents people who actually made it to the playa that year. To get a real idea of the potential demand for tickets you'd have to consider the total population of individuals who have gone to BRC in the last decade or so and who might want to go in the future, in addition to people who've never been and want to go. My guess is that this number is much higher than any one year's attendance numbers.
Basically, when people have the course of nine or seven months to buy tickets, the unknown number of people who'd want to go at the beginning of the year decide they aren't going to go after all without having ever bought a ticket. This year, all those people bid on tickets if they paid attention and knew about the lottery, not because they knew for sure they were going to go, but because they thought they might go. That is the reason for inflated number of ticket bids.
But take heart, because if that is the case, there should be some free tickets to be had as ticket holders' various hardships or simple ennui over the course of the year forces them to give up their opportunity to go home.