Burning Blog official ticket update

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Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Eric » Thu Feb 09, 2012 7:19 pm

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by BetaBox » Thu Feb 09, 2012 7:27 pm

I was completely for keeping the 10k ticket sales open, but now, not so much. However, that feels so wrong. I need a hug.

I feel better after reading it, but starting to freak out even more at the 40% virgin quote. What percentage of the population could we accept as virgins? 100%? 50%?
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by junglesmacks » Thu Feb 09, 2012 7:37 pm

120,000 applications with 40% listed as first timers. Wow.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Eric » Thu Feb 09, 2012 7:39 pm

BetaBox wrote:I feel better after reading it, but starting to freak out even more at the 40% virgin quote. What percentage of the population could we accept as virgins? 100%? 50%?
All that buy tickets. Like the blog says, other than Larry Harvey we were all virgins once (and, technically, that first Burn on the beach he was one as well)
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Elderberry » Thu Feb 09, 2012 7:50 pm

That was sure a lot of words to say that they still don't know what the fuck they are going to do to solve the problem.

It was actually a lot like reading that post here from the PR person. Some of it almost word for word.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by alt12 » Thu Feb 09, 2012 7:58 pm

Wow, that is one depression blog post.

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by socks » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:00 pm

I am very sure scalpers are the major part of that 40%
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by tamarakay » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:00 pm

And now we all take a big deep breathe in, slowly exhale and wait.
I find it interesting that they encourage more discussion of ideas. I have felt at various times attacked, shamed and at one point threatened on this board for not towing the party line and gave up on discussion. It will be interesting to see if the tone here gets a bit friendlier.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by BetaBox » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:13 pm

Eric wrote:
BetaBox wrote:I feel better after reading it, but starting to freak out even more at the 40% virgin quote. What percentage of the population could we accept as virgins? 100%? 50%?
All that buy tickets. Like the blog says, other than Larry Harvey we were all virgins once (and, technically, that first Burn on the beach he was one as well)
I would welcome the day that we have a near full turnover of participants yet create an even better city every year. Maybe it really will get that big.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by stinkyfoot » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:17 pm

Nice.

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Saguache » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:21 pm

Well, 120,000 requests total. 48,000 of those were virgins, that means 72,000 returning burners?

Ok I'm going to stick by my rule of assuming best intentions, I get that BMORG is just as flummoxed as I am (even though they can probably get in with a ticket). Those numbers don't make much sense however; 19,000 return burners who've simultaneously decided this was the year to return after a break from home? That's a might big coincidence. I'm not complaining or ranting so stop trying to read between the lines. Rather I'm suggesting that the data analysis being performed might need some additional work.

Ultimately I'm happy to work with BMORG, happy to work with my camp and happy even to sit this one out if I have to. A ticket will come my way if it works out that way.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by cooked 2242 » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:29 pm

tamarakay wrote:And now we all take a big deep breathe in, slowly exhale and wait.
I find it interesting that they encourage more discussion of ideas. I have felt at various times attacked, shamed and at one point threatened on this board for not towing the party line and gave up on discussion. It will be interesting to see if the tone here gets a bit friendlier.

Me Too...

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Eric » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:34 pm

Saguache wrote:Well, 120,000 requests total. 48,000 of those were virgins, that means 72,000 returning burners?
Roughly 120,000 tickets were requested, not 120,000 requests for tickets ("we had nearly three times the number of tickets requested than we had available tickets", quote from the Burning Blog).

They said earlier that each request averaged 1.7 tickets, so that would be about 70,000(ish) requests for tickets (+/-, since this is all guesswork). Assuming the percentage getting tickets = the exact same percentage requesting them, that would be roughly 42,000 veterans, 28,000 virgins/other; all of which are pretty believable numbers.
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Déjà entendu

Post by knowmad » Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:37 pm

Agreed JK Mostly heard this in the PR
Now we wait and plan(?), while the guys upstais decide what/how we move forward with the block of 10k.
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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by VultureChow » Fri Feb 10, 2012 6:31 am

knowmad wrote:Agreed JK Mostly heard this in the PR
Now we wait and plan(?), while the guys upstais decide what/how we move forward with the block of 10k.
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Yep. Someone read the PR piece.

I have sort of mixed feelings about the whole thing. Full disclosure, I have 1 ticket for myself.

As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.

I hope that whatever solution they ultimately come up with helps to create an event that I can recognize as the Burning Man I always wanted to see (yes yes I know... no expectations).

At the same time, I wonder what would happen if they let the apocalypse just happen. If too many virgins is actually a problem and the event sucks, you've stemmed the tide for a few years. People will go home, tell their friends it sucked and never return. Then in 2013 you can have BM back. If it works, if the thousands of virgins bring new art, and new ideas, and a new positive energy, then the only downside is that Burning Man becomes something that is just not available to everyone every year. But the upside is a much larger community of people living and experiencing the culture of Burning Man. More regionals, more art off Playa, more everything.
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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by BBadger » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:05 am

VultureChow wrote:Yep. Someone read the PR piece.

I have sort of mixed feelings about the whole thing. Full disclosure, I have 1 ticket for myself.

As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Saguache » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:17 am

Eric wrote: Roughly 120,000 tickets were requested, not 120,000 requests for tickets ("we had nearly three times the number of tickets requested than we had available tickets", quote from the Burning Blog).

They said earlier that each request averaged 1.7 tickets, so that would be about 70,000(ish) requests for tickets (+/-, since this is all guesswork). Assuming the percentage getting tickets = the exact same percentage requesting them, that would be roughly 42,000 veterans, 28,000 virgins/other; all of which are pretty believable numbers.

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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by Drawingablank » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:20 am

VultureChow wrote:As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.
I wouldn't worry about this - people will be extremely nice on the playa even if they acted like complete asshats on eplaya. Besides most of the anti birgin postings here was from just a handful of people.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Igneouss » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:26 am

jkisha wrote:That was sure a lot of words to say that they still don't know what the fuck they are going to do to solve the problem.

It was actually a lot like reading that post here from the PR person. Some of it almost word for word.
I noticed that too. I saw input there from at least 3 of us. There is actually one phrase that was mine verbatim. But the woman that wrote the PR blog gets the lions share of credit for influencing Marian.

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Max Callahan » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:39 am

Eric wrote:
Saguache wrote:Well, 120,000 requests total. 48,000 of those were virgins, that means 72,000 returning burners?
Roughly 120,000 tickets were requested, not 120,000 requests for tickets ("we had nearly three times the number of tickets requested than we had available tickets", quote from the Burning Blog).

They said earlier that each request averaged 1.7 tickets, so that would be about 70,000(ish) requests for tickets (+/-, since this is all guesswork). Assuming the percentage getting tickets = the exact same percentage requesting them, that would be roughly 42,000 veterans, 28,000 virgins/other; all of which are pretty believable numbers.
You keep saying this, and I believe your logic is incorrect. Yes, it is 120,000 tickets requested, and yes it was 1.7 tickets per request, so that means there were 70588 requests, but that doesn't mean that only 70588 people want to go.
If I put in 1 request for 2 tickets it doesn't mean just I want to go, it means my wife and I want to go.

I'm not saying that 120,000 people are trying to go this year, there had to be an overbuy factor (ie, both my wife and I put in for 2 tickets when we only needed 2 between us) but how much that overbuy was is a matter of conjecture at the moment, and may well be close to 1.7x, so I'd agree with your final numbers, just not how you're getting there.

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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by RedHeaven » Fri Feb 10, 2012 10:05 am

Drawingablank wrote:
VultureChow wrote:As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.
I wouldn't worry about this - people will be extremely nice on the playa even if they acted like complete asshats on eplaya. Besides most of the anti birgin postings here was from just a handful of people.

Yeah, and who is going to WASTE their week at Burning Man on being angry at newbees? thats not only a waste of their time but a true waste of a ticket! Really, it does turn into unicorns and bacon rainbows out there. Right now everyone is still getting over Anger aspects, sitting at home/working and generally have the winter blues/negs.
A few virgins on my music message board are saying the same thing but I am letting them know its just not going to be like that. Unless its your gimmick, nobody has time to spread that kind of hate out there when there is so much other great things to do. And if that is someones gimmick, then they are far and few.

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Eric » Fri Feb 10, 2012 10:44 am

Max Callahan wrote:You keep saying this, and I believe your logic is incorrect. Yes, it is 120,000 tickets requested, and yes it was 1.7 tickets per request, so that means there were 70588 requests, but that doesn't mean that only 70588 people want to go.
If I put in 1 request for 2 tickets it doesn't mean just I want to go, it means my wife and I want to go.

I'm not saying that 120,000 people are trying to go this year, there had to be an overbuy factor (ie, both my wife and I put in for 2 tickets when we only needed 2 between us) but how much that overbuy was is a matter of conjecture at the moment, and may well be close to 1.7x, so I'd agree with your final numbers, just not how you're getting there.
My guesses have nothing to do with how many people want to go and never say they do; they certainly don't include people like myself who want to go but didn't enter the lottery due to financial issues, they don't include people who would love to go but are sitting it out, or people who are still thinking about it, or even who the tickets were intended for.

All I've been trying to show is that a far smaller number of people actually requesting tickets were needed for the system to explode than most people are guessing. I keep seeing people guessing that there had to be 120-150,000 people applying, or other nonsense. All my numbers show is that around 70,000 people could have caused only a third of the applicants to get tickets. Based on the information released the yesterday it looks like my guesses are at least in the same ballpark as the actual figures.

And, no, I don't think my 70,000 is an accurate guess, it's based on the averages, which is all we have to work with.
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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by VultureChow » Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:23 am

RedHeaven wrote:
Drawingablank wrote:
VultureChow wrote:As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.
I wouldn't worry about this - people will be extremely nice on the playa even if they acted like complete asshats on eplaya. Besides most of the anti birgin postings here was from just a handful of people.

Yeah, and who is going to WASTE their week at Burning Man on being angry at newbees? thats not only a waste of their time but a true waste of a ticket! Really, it does turn into unicorns and bacon rainbows out there. Right now everyone is still getting over Anger aspects, sitting at home/working and generally have the winter blues/negs.
A few virgins on my music message board are saying the same thing but I am letting them know its just not going to be like that. Unless its your gimmick, nobody has time to spread that kind of hate out there when there is so much other great things to do. And if that is someones gimmick, then they are far and few.

thanks for the encouragement, everyone. There's a reason I've been trying to stay away from the ticket discussions. I'm working on my prep and my art project and trying to focus on that. Worst case scenario is, of course, a desert camping trip with an ass-load of booze. Best case scenario is mind blowing awesomeness.

Either way, a good way to spend a week.
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Max Callahan » Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:27 am

Eric wrote:
Max Callahan wrote:You keep saying this, and I believe your logic is incorrect. Yes, it is 120,000 tickets requested, and yes it was 1.7 tickets per request, so that means there were 70588 requests, but that doesn't mean that only 70588 people want to go.
If I put in 1 request for 2 tickets it doesn't mean just I want to go, it means my wife and I want to go.

I'm not saying that 120,000 people are trying to go this year, there had to be an overbuy factor (ie, both my wife and I put in for 2 tickets when we only needed 2 between us) but how much that overbuy was is a matter of conjecture at the moment, and may well be close to 1.7x, so I'd agree with your final numbers, just not how you're getting there.
My guesses have nothing to do with how many people want to go and never say they do; they certainly don't include people like myself who want to go but didn't enter the lottery due to financial issues, they don't include people who would love to go but are sitting it out, or people who are still thinking about it, or even who the tickets were intended for.

All I've been trying to show is that a far smaller number of people actually requesting tickets were needed for the system to explode than most people are guessing. I keep seeing people guessing that there had to be 120-150,000 people applying, or other nonsense. All my numbers show is that around 70,000 people could have caused only a third of the applicants to get tickets. Based on the information released the yesterday it looks like my guesses are at least in the same ballpark as the actual figures.

And, no, I don't think my 70,000 is an accurate guess, it's based on the averages, which is all we have to work with.
I'm with you on it only taking 70,000 people trying to get to the burn to cause the results we saw (and 70k is a very reasonable number, it's right on line with where we would be if it weren't for the economic meltdown). I'm just saying that we don't get from 70k burners to 120k tickets via the 1.7 tickets per request, I'm saying that we get there through people overbuying to improve their chance in the lotto (and scalpers, i'm willing to throw scalpers in there too), and that and that by using the 1.7 tickets per request number you may be causing people to discount what is a valid line of thought.

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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by waynerd » Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:44 am

VultureChow wrote: Yep. Someone read the PR piece.

I have sort of mixed feelings about the whole thing. Full disclosure, I have 1 ticket for myself.

As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.
Another virgin here too. I too was a little worried when I first found out that I got a ticket and started reading the (few) negative posts. I soon realized that the real burners aren't like that. I played by the rules set out before me, perhaps even more so than some veterans. I requested one ticket, for one and lucky me I got one. A few "burners" don't like it, well go start your own elitist club somewhere and let me experience the playa just as you once did.
Excuse me, this is way different than what was described in the brochure!

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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by Eric » Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:51 am

Max Callahan wrote:I'm just saying that we don't get from 70k burners to 120k tickets via the 1.7 tickets per request, I'm saying that we get there through people overbuying to improve their chance in the lotto (and scalpers, i'm willing to throw scalpers in there too), and that and that by using the 1.7 tickets per request number you may be causing people to discount what is a valid line of thought.
The "1.7 tickets per request" average is from Jack Rabbit Speaks- it's the LLC's estimate, not mine. It's not per Burner, it's per entry into the lottery (ie: "request").

Again, nowhere do I even begin to guess at who those 70,000ish requests came from- we know that some are from all the reasons you list, including scalpers; my whole exercise was just to show a reasonable number could still completely screw up the system.

[70,000 entries] x [1.7 average tickets requested per entry] = 119,000 tickets requested
(all numbers guesses, as always)
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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by VultureChow » Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:03 pm

waynerd wrote:
VultureChow wrote: Yep. Someone read the PR piece.

I have sort of mixed feelings about the whole thing. Full disclosure, I have 1 ticket for myself.

As a virgin I hope this does help to ameliorate the anti-virgin sentiment that has been expressed openly and often. That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school, and having people look at me and see not me, but someone who took a ticket away from one of their friends.
Another virgin here too. I too was a little worried when I first found out that I got a ticket and started reading the (few) negative posts. I soon realized that the real burners aren't like that. I played by the rules set out before me, perhaps even more so than some veterans. I requested one ticket, for one and lucky me I got one. A few "burners" don't like it, well go start your own elitist club somewhere and let me experience the playa just as you once did.
I think what others pointed out here is true too. If one went by what anonymous posters on the internet said our country should be embroiled in a 7 way race, school lunch, circumcision, contraception, gay marriage, soda/pop, Jersey Shore Civil War. When we're in BRC, it will be a different world.
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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by alt12 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:07 pm

VultureChow wrote: That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school

hahaha! That is precisely what you will feel on the first day and has nothing to do with the ticketing situation! It takes at least a couple of days to feel comfortable at burning man and not an outsider at some strange alien society (which you are and it is). Well at least that was my experience anyway. Some people never feel comfortable and don't come back but I would guess that if you are already on eplaya that is an unlikely situation... Don't let the ticket drama worry you... Once people out in the dust, all this other bullshit tends to fade away. Everyone is either too busy partying or trying to keep their shit from falling apart.. Of course there will be some assholes but there assholes everywhere.....

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Re: Déjà entendu

Post by Eric » Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:55 pm

alt12 wrote:
VultureChow wrote: That has scared me more than anything. Showing up in BRC and feeling like the unwelcome freshman in high school

hahaha! That is precisely what you will feel on the first day and has nothing to do with the ticketing situation! It takes at least a couple of days to feel comfortable at burning man and not an outsider at some strange alien society (which you are and it is).
I dunno- I felt a bit more like Dorothy in Oz. A whole lot of "whoa" and "omigod" and "what's that!".
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Re: Burning Blog official ticket update

Post by uncle sticky » Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:35 pm

Anybody see the comment on the blog attributed to Larry Harvey re: cancellation of the open sale? Doubt it was authentic, but wondered if others saw it too.
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