2019 Playa Conditions

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FlyingMonkey
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2019 Playa Conditions

Post by FlyingMonkey » Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:19 am

Has anyone started this thread yet?

Any locals want to chime in??

Thanks in advance.
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maladroit
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by maladroit » Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:55 am

Wow yeah, this thread usually starts around May or June. What does it mean? Have we finally realized it's always going to be flat and dusty?

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FlyingMonkey
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by FlyingMonkey » Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:42 pm

maladroit wrote:
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:55 am
Wow yeah, this thread usually starts around May or June. What does it mean? Have we finally realized it's always going to be flat and dusty?
A few years back when it took so long for the lake to dry up it was actually very humid. That made a big impact on the conditions. 115 degrees & 33% humidity really sucked.

Yes it was flat & dusty but there's more to it than that.

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Ano » Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:42 pm

2017 again. Potato chips. It was still moist-ish through July. Expect a crackly top-layer that breaks down and turns into dunes upon dunes.

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by maladroit » Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:40 pm

I hope it's not 2017 heat again. I don't have the air conditioner this time.

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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:09 pm

Yep, Ano nailed it. Potato Chip Playa.

We had a generally mild winter with decent rain and mountain snow.

What we didn’t have is any big freeze-thaw-freeze again cycles. That is the action that compacts the Playa.

Biking may become hazardous after mid-week.

Bike repair camps will again get lots of love with shredded bearings.

Bring lots of bandannas and extra goggles.

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Molotov
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Molotov » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:25 pm

Pictures I saw of Golden Spike looked like nice hard pack.

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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:40 am

NOAA is showing a cold low pressure that seems to linger a bit through build week for all y’all WAP folks.

Bring warm clothes ...

10-day Prediction of departure from normal: (not a forecast but probability):

Image

14-day:

Image


Notice how they look very similar. That’s the low system lingering.

These will dynamically update every day so check back the closer we get to TTITD.

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Lonesomebri
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Lonesomebri » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:13 pm

This week
Camp THREAT: Dominating the porta potties 3 years running.
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Ano » Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:22 pm

It's gross.

It's really gross this year. I have a feeling a lot of crappy burners are in for a surprise. "But its been so flat and nice!"

duney as fuck once the chips break. the chips can be sharp... yeah, sharp.. The only part of the playa that's packed is parts of deep on the 2:00 side, and a chunk of 2:00 - 6:00. Otherwise, it's disgusting. If anyone recalls that one year where the 3:00 street was literally foot-deep dunes, that's what we're getting this year.

The weather has been random; rainy, kinda cold, kinda hot, no way to tell. It's been fucked.

We're fucked. Finally. A year where the sparkleponies are gonna be like "this sucks!"

tell your friends. Awful conditions. Duney. If you have a fat tire bike, you'll be happy. I sold mine this year. I'm dumb.

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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:46 am

C1A137C5-078D-448E-979C-1C2C618DE780.jpeg
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Fat-tire bikes highly recommended this year.

Watch out for the rough spots out there.

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Skuzzy61 » Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:07 pm

I put Schwalbe Big Apple tires on the bikes for this year. Here's hoping.
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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:52 am

Token wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:40 am

10-day Prediction of departure from normal: (not a forecast but probability):

Image

14-day:

Image

These will dynamically update every day so check back the closer we get to TTITD.
Looks like the big bake is setting in!

The 1/2 month lead prediction (updates 1st and 15th each month) also looks to support a hot-days, warm-nights outlook and probability.

Image

NOTE: these are predictions, not forecasts. Weather still happens on top of the trends.

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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:04 pm

FWIW, GFS model run today shows a front rolling through ~ Fri 23rd - Sun 25th.

Being that the model is good for ~ 7 days on weather forecasting and this is near day 10 ...

That would make for all kinds of fun.

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by asteroid » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:08 pm

extrapolating from the comments on this reddit post, consider a map (satellite image from june, visible playa patterns match up)
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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:34 am

Very rarely does NOAA show 80% confidence in a prediction ...

... and they have one for Gate this year.

I’m posting this one static for reference so we can circle back.
.
A4C8F1A6-B2A8-4EE6-8912-BB95FA4A1D89.gif
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Looks like a scorcher.

Jet stream fled up North to Canada.
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Joeln » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:04 am

Interestingly the 10 day forecast for Gerlach never goes above 90.
One can hope it won't be 2017 all over again.
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son_of_mars
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by son_of_mars » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:38 pm

How applicable is the Gerlach forecast for the playa? Is it a pretty fair indicator of general temp/humidity ranges?

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Captain Goddammit » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:46 pm

Joeln wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:04 am
Interestingly the 10 day forecast for Gerlach never goes above 90.
One can hope it won't be 2017 all over again.
Or do you mean 2015!
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Joeln » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:49 pm

Captain Goddammit wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:46 pm
Joeln wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:04 am
Interestingly the 10 day forecast for Gerlach never goes above 90.
One can hope it won't be 2017 all over again.
Or do you mean 2015!
2015 was great! The pre-burn windstorms were awesome.
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by lucky420 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:17 pm

son_of_mars wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:38 pm
How applicable is the Gerlach forecast for the playa? Is it a pretty fair indicator of general temp/humidity ranges?
You can also check the weather for Lovelock, it’s just over the hill from the playa too
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Joeln » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:55 pm

96 in Gerlach right now, 5PM Sunday.
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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:44 pm

son_of_mars wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:38 pm
How applicable is the Gerlach forecast for the playa? Is it a pretty fair indicator of general temp/humidity ranges?
Depends on where you get the forecast.

NOAA is pretty good.

Others are hit and miss.

Nearest official weather station is on a mountain so all of it is extrapolated.

General rule of thumb: calm days can be +- 5-10 degrees; highs tend to be higher, lows lower.

Windy days in general are closer to NWS forecast.

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by son_of_mars » Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:46 am

Awesome, thanks. Coming from an area with microclimates that can vary 20+ degrees in 5-7 miles I'm always a little unsure of how well forecasts apply to nearby areas. I've been using NOAA, so sounds like it should be reasonably accurate as far as these things go.

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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Just_Joe » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:52 am

A couple of rain cells and some pretty wild lightning east of the playa made sunset on Friday pretty spiffy.

Current conditions in Gerlach

The "potato chips" are getting crushed by tires and feet, but underneath is rock hard. In a twist, much of the 3 side didn't chip up and is normal looking, hard playa.

The forecast is for dust.

And doom:

Beyond the forecast period...we are looking at the possibility of
the remnants of a possible tropical system lifting north toward the
southwestern U.S. by the middle of next week. The system has not
developed yet...but the hurricane forecasters are giving it a 90%
chance of formation. Remnant moisture lifting into the region could
mean a shift to more active weather prior to Labor Day weekend. We
will keep an eye on this potential as we move through the next week
and a half.

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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:30 pm

That’s a smashing good spin on the tropical moisture.

The GFSv3 shows some fun stuff getting pulled up north near the end of the loop.

Too soon to tell 10 days out but worth watching.

https://weatherstreet.com/models/gfs-sl ... recast.php

See the animation in the link.

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Canoe
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Canoe » Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:55 pm

Just_Joe wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:52 am
...
Current conditions in Gerlach
The graphs at that link weren't working for me when I tried recently. Now it shows a selection page for the graph type, but then says the page linked to doesn't exist.
Shame, as I found them very useful.

The temperature highs are interesting. (Ambient; not baking in solar)
- Today 93.7 °F at 4:03pm
- Yest. 95.9 °F at 3:27pm
- Month 98.9 °F on Aug-15-2019
- Year 100.3 °F on Jul-28-2019

No 105 F, not even over 102 F, in month nor year.

Today's latest is walk-in-park low 90s F, winds 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 16, with typical humidity - in mid teens ~14 % RH.
So no big dust through town nor over the playa.
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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:37 pm

Canoe wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:55 pm
Just_Joe wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:52 am
...
Current conditions in Gerlach
The graphs at that link weren't working for me when I tried recently. Now it shows a selection page for the graph type, but then says the page linked to doesn't exist.
Shame, as I found them very useful.

The temperature highs are interesting. (Ambient; not baking in solar)
- Today 93.7 °F at 4:03pm
- Yest. 95.9 °F at 3:27pm
- Month 98.9 °F on Aug-15-2019
- Year 100.3 °F on Jul-28-2019

No 105 F, not even over 102 F, in month nor year.

Today's latest is walk-in-park low 90s F, winds 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 16, with typical humidity - in mid teens ~14 % RH.
So no big dust through town nor over the playa.
http://webcam.burningman.org/
That weather station links to:

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us ... 66,-119.66

Posts every 5 minutes. You can get the graphs on Wunderground with their widgets if you click into things.
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Canoe
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Canoe » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:24 pm

Token wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:37 pm
That weather station links to:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us ... 66,-119.66
Posts every 5 minutes. You can get the graphs on Wunderground with their widgets if you click into things.
Thank you

I see they're forecasting 98 F for the Sunday, Monday & Tuesday. Likely low teen RH or even single digit, for a density altitude that should be over 7,500.
That'll fill up Medical with Virgins.
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Token
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Re: 2019 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:05 pm

Daytime on-Playa is usually single digit RH on hot days.

Had my weather station out there couple years. Lost the data since then. Them flash cards in a Raspberry Pi don’t last long. :(

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