Playa Conditions 2014

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FossaFerox
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by FossaFerox » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:23 pm

melodiousdirge wrote:
FossaFerox wrote:
zorro sings wrote:While no fun for those out there now this current weather is probably good news for the rest of us.Have lived in Reno area 26 years and have never seen 3 straight weeks of thunderstorms and grey clouds this time of year.When this pattern breaks I would be willing to bet we get a 2 or 3 week calm and sunny period.Just have to hope it breaks before next week.If not no fun for anyone.
I think that's pretty much the common "gamblers' fallacy." Good weather is never "due."
Mmmmmmmm, while mathematically you have an argument I'd suggest that weather is not actually a random event and as such the gamblers fallacy does not actually apply here. Feel free to discuss, I have chemically obliterated most of my statistics education.
It doesn't have to be random for past outcome to not weight the next "trial". Expecting weather to break because it's rare for it to do what it's currently ding is silly. By that logic today's storm shouldn't have happened since we just got one.
ygmir wrote:Everyone loves you there, and no one cares a shit about you..........all at once. and vice versa.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by melodiousdirge » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:29 pm

FossaFerox wrote:It doesn't have to be random for past outcome to not weight the next "trial". Expecting weather to break because it's rare for it to do what it's currently ding is silly. By that logic today's storm shouldn't have happened since we just got one.
Well, actually yes it does have to be random. To be clear (because I'm probably not being clear) the specific property of randomness I'm talking about is that a "random" event is unaffected by previous events. A coin doesn't remember where it landed last time you tossed it, but with something like a weather system, rain locally depletes the moisture from the atmosphere, sun changes wind patterns, large wet areas absorb more solar energy than dry ones, etc. etc. This is all very pedantic and ultimately the weather is going to do whatever it feels like doing, but I don't think it's necessarily "wrong" to say that several weeks of extreme weather could weight the dice a little bit in favor of less extreme weather.
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by FossaFerox » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:35 pm

melodiousdirge wrote:
FossaFerox wrote:It doesn't have to be random for past outcome to not weight the next "trial". Expecting weather to break because it's rare for it to do what it's currently ding is silly. By that logic today's storm shouldn't have happened since we just got one.
Well, actually yes it does have to be random. To be clear (because I'm probably not being clear) the specific property of randomness I'm talking about is that a "random" event is unaffected by previous events. A coin doesn't remember where it landed last time you tossed it, but with something like a weather system, rain locally depletes the moisture from the atmosphere, sun changes wind patterns, large wet areas absorb more solar energy than dry ones, etc. etc. This is all very pedantic and ultimately the weather is going to do whatever it feels like doing, but I don't think it's necessarily "wrong" to say that several weeks of extreme weather could weight the dice a little bit in favor of less extreme weather.

That's not the heart of the gamblers' fallacy, though. It's attributing odds that an event is due since it hasn't happened where no favorable odds necessarily exist.

For example, the Gamblers' fallacy might apply to a sporting event where one side is thought to be "due," even though that sure isn't random.
ygmir wrote:Everyone loves you there, and no one cares a shit about you..........all at once. and vice versa.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by melodiousdirge » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:40 pm

FossaFerox wrote:
melodiousdirge wrote:
FossaFerox wrote:It doesn't have to be random for past outcome to not weight the next "trial". Expecting weather to break because it's rare for it to do what it's currently ding is silly. By that logic today's storm shouldn't have happened since we just got one.
Well, actually yes it does have to be random. To be clear (because I'm probably not being clear) the specific property of randomness I'm talking about is that a "random" event is unaffected by previous events. A coin doesn't remember where it landed last time you tossed it, but with something like a weather system, rain locally depletes the moisture from the atmosphere, sun changes wind patterns, large wet areas absorb more solar energy than dry ones, etc. etc. This is all very pedantic and ultimately the weather is going to do whatever it feels like doing, but I don't think it's necessarily "wrong" to say that several weeks of extreme weather could weight the dice a little bit in favor of less extreme weather.

That's not the heart of the gamblers' fallacy, though. It's attributing odds that an event is due since it hasn't happened where no favorable odds necessarily exist.

For example, the Gamblers' fallacy might apply to a sporting event where one side is thought to be "due," even though that sure isn't random.
Okay, I understand. I wasn't trying to dispute the gamblers fallacy, just pointing out that it may not really be 100% accurate when applied to weather patterns.
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Eric
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Eric » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:02 pm

FossaFerox wrote:That's not the heart of the gamblers' fallacy, though. It's attributing odds that an event is due since it hasn't happened where no favorable odds necessarily exist.

For example, the Gamblers' fallacy might apply to a sporting event where one side is thought to be "due," even though that sure isn't random.
By this reasoning we can't have any sort of weather report other than looking at the sky. Weather is not random, it's driven by patterns. While we have limited knowledge of the depth of what makes the patterns run, we do know about them and how they act to a degree (like El Niño), so it is possible to predict with some degree of accuracy what the weather will be in two weeks. Can it change - absolutely, but once we're a week away from the event you can pretty much guarantee that the forecast for the Burn will be fairly accurate.

An example: the monsoon rains hit India within a certain season. The exact date they hit might vary some (and due to climate change is getting earlier & stronger), but there is knowledge of roughly when they are coming, years in advance. Hell, the "trade winds" ancient sailors used are weather, and they knew enough about them to plan ventures years in advance. "Random" does not involve a pattern, it is just that - random, absolutely to chance.
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by FossaFerox » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:07 pm

They aren't making a scientific forecast, though, they were simply saying we're due for good weather as if storms and high winds are something you can get out of the way.

What can I say, I get anxious when I see people rationalizing away the potential threat of what we're facing.

Bottom line, the weather will be whatever it will be. Plan for the worst, hope for the best, deal with whatever it is we get.
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by thirt33n » Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:07 pm

FossaFerox wrote:They aren't making a scientific forecast, though, they were simply saying we're due for good weather as if storms and high winds are something you can get out of the way.

What can I say, I get anxious when I see people rationalizing away the potential threat of what we're facing.

Bottom line, the weather will be whatever it will be. Plan for the worst, hope for the best, deal with whatever it is we get.

Your bottom line is the correctest thing on this thread.
blow.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by zorro sings » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:15 pm

FossaFerox wrote: t they were simply saying we're due for good weather as if storms and high winds are something you can get out of the way.

What can I say, I get anxious when I see people rationalizing away the potential threat of what we're facing.

Wow 10 posts on a simple weather observation.Glad to see that in above I am now described as"they" and"people".What do you know,living in LA,about weather in Reno? They are called weather patterns for a reason.

You are always facing a"potential threat" when you go there.Fools errand though talking conditions with those who have never even sniffed a real BRC dust storm.
Be careful. You can spend all your money in there..............................Oriental Visitor

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Eric » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:46 pm

zorro sings wrote:Fools errand though talking conditions with those who have never even sniffed a real BRC dust storm.
[media]


Just had to.
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by lucky420 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:37 am

Rain on black rock this morn :coffee:
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by LowePro » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:11 am

Reports of hail in Reno too... confirmation from any locals?

Lots of energy swirling around the region lately! Maybe it's the force of collective subconscious from all of us thinking and dreaming of the Playa right now. Or maybe not.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by melodiousdirge » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:17 am

Eric wrote:Just had to.
:lol:
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Just_Joe » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:35 am

asr9754 wrote:Reports of hail in Reno too... confirmation from any locals?
Burning Man office in Gerlach has had .4" of rain so far today, which is quite a bit by our standards.

Carson City got nailed by pea size hail yesterday. I recorded a 61mph wind gust at my home, which is about as strong as they come here.
The ten minutes of heavy rain that followed was enough to cover streets with mud.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Ano » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:40 am

I'm seeing some pictures of a beautiful double rainbow breaking through the rain near point one this morning.

BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN? WHoaaaaaAAAAAaahhh....

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by homo ardentum » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:43 am

Radar shows that the playa just got hammered! Cant wait to hear an update. I recall back in 2010 when it rained and the streets dried into lumpy cement bumps. Riding a bike was a real chore on the main spokes.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Madgirl » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:49 am

Just checked the 10 day weather forecast for Gerlach and it says 40% chance of T-storms today then sunny and clear through late next week. Highs in the low 80's, lows in the upper 50's.
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by lucky420 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:50 am

asr9754 wrote:Reports of hail in Reno too... confirmation from any locals?

Lots of energy swirling around the region lately! Maybe it's the force of collective subconscious from all of us thinking and dreaming of the Playa right now. Or maybe not.

I live in Northwest REno and it was crazy shit up here yesterday afternoon. In downtown Reno they didnt get much at all and over in Sparks I think they got 3 drops...

Scattered showers are forecast for today mainly to the east and north of Reno.
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Train Wreck » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:57 am

These pics were taken within an hour ago. Yikes!
IMG_0325.JPG
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by FIGJAM » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:59 am

8)
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Train Wreck » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:04 am

Hail...
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Train Wreck » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:07 am

IMG_0326.JPG
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by remi » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:08 am

Train Wreck wrote:Hail...
IMG_0327.JPG
Reno, Gerlach, Playa?? Where?
Can you at least admit that nuclear explosions are awesome!?

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by TT120 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:08 am

Free ice cubes from heaven. No need to stand in the ice line, just open your cooler and let it fill up!
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Train Wreck » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:08 am

Pics were taken at Point 1

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by FIGJAM » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:12 am

If he doesn't recognize the playa, I don't think he'll know what point 1 is. :lol:
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Jackass » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:31 am

Well, there's another 1000 or so tickets for the OMG! WTF?! SALE. Going on now, thru opening...


Nice pics, keep'em coming TW!
Sooner or later, it will get real strange...

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by TT120 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:55 am

Jackass wrote:Well, there's another 1000 or so tickets for the OMG! WTF?! SALE. Going on now, thru opening...


Nice pics, keep'em coming TW!
SHHHHHH, those tickets are for me and my camp.......
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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by 1durphul » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:24 am

Eric wrote: By this reasoning we can't have any sort of weather report other than looking at the sky. Weather is not random, it's driven by patterns. While we have limited knowledge of the depth of what makes the patterns run, we do know about them and how they act to a degree (like El Niño), so it is possible to predict with some degree of accuracy what the weather will be in two weeks. Can it change - absolutely, but once we're a week away from the event you can pretty much guarantee that the forecast for the Burn will be fairly accurate.

An example: the monsoon rains hit India within a certain season. The exact date they hit might vary some (and due to climate change is getting earlier & stronger), but there is knowledge of roughly when they are coming, years in advance. Hell, the "trade winds" ancient sailors used are weather, and they knew enough about them to plan ventures years in advance. "Random" does not involve a pattern, it is just that - random, absolutely to chance.
Weather patterns are random only to a degree.

Doesn't the Farmer's Almanac exist for the very purpose of accumulating past data for the purpose of predicting seasonal weather patterns and prime dates for planting? An Almanac is only a guideline, and there will be a degree of variance. That variance is the randomness Fossa speaks of, however that degree of variance in weather patterns shrinks and grows throughout the year. For example, we know that with near 100% certainty that it will not snow on the day the gates open at Burning Man.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Train Wreck » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:34 am

I hope it snows now.

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Re: Playa Conditions 2014

Post by Ano » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:39 am

1durphul wrote: For example, we know that with near 100% certainty that it will not snow on the day the gates open at Burning Man.
You heard it here first, folks. It's going to snow on the day the gates open.

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