How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
Because the weather is looking pretty amazing right now. For anyone monitoring last year, was the cold a surprise?
Re: How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
Not for those of us that were paying attention...Leap wrote:Because the weather is looking pretty amazing right now. For anyone monitoring last year, was the cold a surprise?
Sooner or later, it will get real strange...
11th Principle: Depussyfication - Keeping Burning Man potentially lethal. Token
11th Principle: Depussyfication - Keeping Burning Man potentially lethal. Token
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lucky420
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Re: How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
It's about as reliable as any 10 day forecast in Nevada
Oh my god, it's HUGE!
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trilobyte
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Re: How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
I hate to state the obvious, but I didn't think it needed to be said. You may find that weather forecasts are about as reliable and subject to change as... 10 day weather forecasts.
The further out any forecast is, the less likely it will be to be accurate. Forecasts can change pretty significantly in a matter of days due to the nature of how weather forecasting and storms and fronts work, if you want to be prepared you should pack and prepare for any of the reasonably extreme conditions known to occur on the playa. Temps as low as the 40's at night, and into triple digits during the day. Usually it's dry, but sometimes it's not. There are calm and mild periods, and there are also periods of high winds and frequent gusts. Prepare for everything, and nothing will surprise you.
Also, this is also worth pointing out. BRC conditions can vary quite a bit from Gerlach. Gerlach isn't in the middle of the desert, it's off to the side. I think of it as a more socially acceptable form of weather than Black Rock City.
The further out any forecast is, the less likely it will be to be accurate. Forecasts can change pretty significantly in a matter of days due to the nature of how weather forecasting and storms and fronts work, if you want to be prepared you should pack and prepare for any of the reasonably extreme conditions known to occur on the playa. Temps as low as the 40's at night, and into triple digits during the day. Usually it's dry, but sometimes it's not. There are calm and mild periods, and there are also periods of high winds and frequent gusts. Prepare for everything, and nothing will surprise you.
Also, this is also worth pointing out. BRC conditions can vary quite a bit from Gerlach. Gerlach isn't in the middle of the desert, it's off to the side. I think of it as a more socially acceptable form of weather than Black Rock City.
Re: How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
10-day runs of the model ensemble can be fairly coherent but most meteorological agencies stop interpretation at day 7.
Hurricanes stop at day 5 due to very large energies involved.
So, the 10-day or longer forecasts done by third party commercial entities, well they are driven by business needs, not the science or federal mandate.
You may be able to get a hint next Monday what it might look like.
Next 10 days: several low pressure fronts will fly over northern Nevada so forecasts will be sketchy at best.
Wind is just about the only thing there will be plenty of.
Hurricanes stop at day 5 due to very large energies involved.
So, the 10-day or longer forecasts done by third party commercial entities, well they are driven by business needs, not the science or federal mandate.
You may be able to get a hint next Monday what it might look like.
Next 10 days: several low pressure fronts will fly over northern Nevada so forecasts will be sketchy at best.
Wind is just about the only thing there will be plenty of.
Re: How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
Thanks everyone'
Re: How reliable is the 10 day forecast for Gerlach?
Charlatans speaking with forked tongue, every one of them. The only one you can trust is me.
Temperatures will range between cold and hot, dead calm to 50+mph, clear as a bell to complete white out.
Bring condoms.
Temperatures will range between cold and hot, dead calm to 50+mph, clear as a bell to complete white out.
Bring condoms.