Dutch Auctions are the answer for how tickets should work

[pink]

Make the event harsher. Actually pretty easy. Go back a few years. No onsite water deliver. No RV delivery. No commercial airlines. No grey water removal. Definitely no gas delivery for art cars, genny delivery, the list goes on & on. All of these things make camps less radically self reliant, and make it easier for those that buy their burn.

Exodus was easier because a lot more people stayed until Tuesday.

[some seeing eye]

Pink, cool suggestion. We could alternate radical years with spa years and see which wins out! I'm more interested in radical years.

[Captain Goddammit]

That's nothing... I've always gone self-supplied, and every camp I've ever been in has been self-supplied.

[pink]

I and my camp are all self-supplied. But more and more camps are going the delivery route. You couldn't have a PnP without deliveries. It would require people to go back to thinking of creative ways to dispose of grey water and conserve water.

[Eric]

I'm wondering if the reality of how foolish a Dutch auction would be is more obvious now that actual ticket sale figures have been released by the Org. Lets break those down, so it's clear why this type of "auction" would fail for most Burners who aren't rich:

40,000 tickets available.
80,000+ people registered, each of whom can potentially purchase 2 tickets (so ~160,000 tickets desired)
~21,500 people purchased the 40,000 tickets (1.87 tickets average per sale)

What this means is that people would go into the Dutch Auction knowing that only the first 20,000 people are going to get a chance at tickets (or 1/2 whatever the number of tickets for sale is) - meaning at least 3/4 of the people who enter would not get a ticket due to the incredible demand for a limited item (and that's if demand doesn't increase, while supply stays the same).

Yeah, those $1,000 tickets would be gone in an hour, just like now. Only difference is that people who can't afford that are completely cut out. The current way they at least have a chance, even if it involves some luck on when the server grabs them (see the post I linked).

The Org has fucked up many things over the years, but I think since 2012 they've balanced the needs of the event & Burners pretty damn well, especially when you discover that demand is almost 4 times higher than available tickets. Welcome to reality, it may suck but you still have to live with the facts of it.

[Tiahaar]

It would no longer be a Dutch Auction as such but a similar effect could be achieved by returning to the tier pricing, with a variation. Have a separate link for each tier, choose the tier you want to enter at the start of the sale and be locked into it until it sold out. For higher risk of sellout and missed purchase (because the low tiers will get more hits) but potentially a better price, choose the lower tiers. For more chance of success but at greater cost choose the higher tiers.

A person's financial resources will always be a factor but this then could mitigate risk of sellout for those with the means, and people who choose the higher tiers would then not take up ticket chances for those of modest income. It was supposed to be that way by the honor system in the old tier system (snicker), didn't really work, but at least it spread out the main sale over days rather than seconds. For more fun 2 or more 'main' sales could be held a month apart.

such as this:

**Click this link for $300 tickets (2 each maximum)** 20,000 available

**Click this link for $400 tickets (2 each maximum)** 10,000 available

**Click this link for $500 tickets (2 each maximum)** 5,000 available

**Click this link for $600 tickets (2 each maximum)** 3,500 available

**Click this link for $700 tickets (2 each maximum)** 1,500 available


(oooh, edit to add: total sales $390 x 40,000 = $15,600,000 and total sales using the tiers = $15,650,000 good number estimates! )

[Eric]

choose the tier you want to enter at the start of the sale and be locked into it until it sold out.

In other words, create 5 times as much work for Ticketing, since they'll now have to scrub 5 different lists to make sure there aren't scalpers on them, and that there aren't people entered in multiple tiers. Plus this again assumes that people won't try to game the system, which, if anything, we should have learned over the last few years is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

All of these seem to be further attempts to "fix" a system that is actually functioning pretty well, considering that there are ROUGHLY FOUR PEOPLE TRYING TO BUY EVERY SINGLE TICKET in the Main Sale, and even in the DGS there's more demand than tickets (but no way to estimate that demand, since numbers haven't been released).

Oi.

[bradtem]

Um, "the tickets will be gone in an hour" is not how a Dutch auction works. Or a more basic 2nd price sealed bid multi-item auction. There is no time constraint really, unless you are bidding near the final price and it is announced that they might decide who among those in a last place tie gets the tickets if there are too many. (I have generally used random for tiebreaking because if you bid the exact price, you are supposed to be fairly cool with either winning or not winning. If you are not cool with not winning at that price, you should have bid more.)

I am in fact starting to believe that a single sealed bid is better than the Dutch. The Dutch does disclose more information about what is going on, and can induce fear as the supply starts running out. If 50,000 tickets run out on the first day for $1,000 I will eat my playa hat, though it would be interesting to see what happens to have an event with $50M and tons of people who got in for near free based on luck or merit or some other mix.

[Sham]

If people dedicated 100% of their attention to this sales process and all the intricate details, it could possible distribute tickets. I read some of the excruciating details and know that it's just not feasible for people who have other things in their lives---such as jobs, families or outside interests.

Even now, with a fairly simple system, there are people who forgot to make a profile, forgot to register, forgot they needed a credit card and forgot the date of the sale.

Once you add pages upon pages of convoluted horseshit, you will have 70,000 annoyed and angry people.

[bradtem]

Funny how millions of people every day happily do auctions like this. (It's the system eBay uses, though many are not aware of it.)

There is only one rule -- figure out your true price, and bid it. If you win, you're happy, if you lose, you're happy or go for the 2nd sale.

The extra explanation is just to help people figure out how to discover their true price.

[Sham]

I follow what you're saying. You are talking about a finite group here and no one can be bothered with this mess.
If the org ever proposed something like this, most everyone would consider them to be imbeciles.

[Eric]

Um, "the tickets will be gone in an hour" is not how a Dutch auction works. Or a more basic 2nd price sealed bid multi-item auction. There is no time constraint really, unless you are bidding near the final price and it is announced that they might decide who among those in a last place tie gets the tickets if there are too many.

When there are enough bids to take all of the items being offered, the auction is over. You can't keep it running if there are no more of the item to sell, correct? Otherwise, what makes it different than what we have now?

With Burning Man tickets, that would be in the first hour, since people would be unwilling to risk being left out in the cold, especially when they realize that if they don't put money down for a ticket there are three other people ready to toss cash at it, and that the magic number of purchasers is ½ the number of tickets being sold (for this sale that just past, that would be 20,000 purchasers for 40,000 tickets, which is roughly what it turned out to be). Hence, tickets gone in an hour. Unless, for some reason, you think this mythical auction would just run on and on, even when there were more people wanting to purchase the tickets than there were tickets available.


Here is my question: what perceived problem is the dutch auction supposed to fix? In four pages I still can't figure that basic detail out.

[Captain Goddammit]

Um, "the tickets will be gone in an hour" is not how a Dutch auction works.

This isn't a typical situation. The tickets will be gone in an hour because that's how Burning Man works.
Ebay may use that system but that situation is very different. There are millions of items on eBay.
Here, everyone is all after one thing, and generally a whole hell of a lot more desperate to get it.
There's no way in hell I wouldn't bid whatever the opening price was, the instant the sale started.
Whatever price it ended up settling on doesn't matter. If it's too much, I could easily sell out, the auction will prove the value and once sold out the value usually goes up.

The nearly free tickets for the lucky ones, paid for by the others... Hmm... something sounds less than fair about that too. At least the system we have now requires people to demonstrate financial need to try for the subsidized low income tickets.

As usual I'm with Eric, the basic problem is too many people wanting too few items.
The only way to make them want it less is to raise the price.

[Elderberry]

OK, I propose we all come up with new ways to make the ticket process 'easier'. Most rediculous proposal wins.

I say all tickets should be sold at the gate the day the event starts. Then there won't be any reason to complain about computer glitches.

[AntiM]

Random airdrops over flash mobs.

[mudpuppy000]

OK, I propose we all come up with new ways to make the ticket process 'easier'. Most rediculous proposal wins.

I say all tickets should be sold at the gate the day the event starts. Then there won't be any reason to complain about computer glitches.

Extend the event to 2 weeks and double the number of tickets. Half the tickets can enter after week 1. Would ease congestion on the roads on entry but may or may not work for exodus if people want to stay for 2 weeks. (ugh)

[Sham]

Sell them alphabetically. That's the only fair way. Start with the A's and work to the Z's.

[Simon of the Playa]

[media]

[Captain Goddammit]

Sell them alphabetically. That's the only fair way. Start with the A's and work to the Z's.

Hey that's a great idea!!

Signed,
Zachary Zimmerman.


Oh... wait...

[Tiahaar]

OK peoples, number 1, Ebay no longer uses Dutch Auctions (it is a different multiple item format now)

AND number 2, Dutch Auctions as Brad describes have a set opening time and a set closing time. The winning price for everyone is the lowest bid of all the winning bidders at the closing time. You can set the auction to run for days, weeks, or months as you fancy. The uncertainty of what the winning price will be can make for crazy frenzy at the END of bidding, rather than at the start, as bidders below the cutoff number of winning bids (not the price, an important point) seek to get above it. Good times! But yeah...what we have is likely what we'll continue to get.

p.s. I'm gonna move my idea to a new thread, or maybe Elderberry or someone will create a Crazy Ticket Sale Ideas for 2016 thread

[bradtem]

Actaully, there are a couple of different auction styles I have been talking about, though they all have a similar component, that all winners pay the price of the lowest winning bid.

In the Dutch variant, you actually set a starting price (which is picked to be so high that you are sure it will not sell out at that price) and the price keeps dropping and is public until the item sells out, and everybody pays the price it sold out at.

In sealed bid, there is simply a period of bidding - a day, a week, a month as you like. People can submit bids at any time, even revise bids. Nothing is published until the auction closes, and the top "N" bidders win, and all pay the price of the lowest winning bid.

The Dutch auction reveals more information as people watch the number of bids go up as the price goes down. That can be useful, or it can cause panic.

I actually prefer the sealed bid approach, but some may have an easier time understanding the descending price method.

The core principle is that everybody pays the price of the lowest winning bid.

In the Dutch variant, the opening price is set so high that you are 100% sure it will not sell out on day one. So no, you can't have the tickets all be gone in an hour. In the dutch variant, you can't bid more than the price of the day (you can bid less) after the day has past. In the basic sealed variant you can bid any amount at any time. You don't know who the winners are until the final result is disclosed. There usually are enough bids to sell out fairly soon, but that says nothing about who gets the tickets, because anybody can put in their bid or a new bid 1 minute before close, and if it's enough, it will be among the winners. But there is no rush, you can bid any time, and so there is no overload on the servers. (It is in fact silly to wait until the end, and serves no purpose.)

Yes, to correct things, eBay no longer does multiple item auctions and instead pushes people to do buy-it-now. Ebay's single auctions however are a minor variant of the 2nd price sealed bid auction, but it is complicated by the misleading impression that there is an ongoing auction in the going, going gone style. In fact, on eBay, the highest bidder is the winner no matter when they bid, but if they bid early, they can disclose their hand as other bidders test it. That's why most ebay bidders have software to place the bid in the last 30 seconds to avoid disclosing any information.

[maladroit]

Your original false assumption: "It's possible to set a top price that won't sell out immediately even with demand 4x higher than supply, yet still end up with a reasonable price at the end of the process because Burning Man tickets follow all the same rules as other commodities."

Your current false assumption: "People don't understand why my idea is right and their worries are wrong, so if I keep repeating myself eventually they'll get it."

[vargaso]

Your original false assumption: "It's possible to set a top price that won't sell out immediately even with demand 4x higher than supply, yet still end up with a reasonable price at the end of the process because Burning Man tickets follow all the same rules as other commodities."

Your current false assumption: "People don't understand why my idea is right and their worries are wrong, so if I keep repeating myself eventually they'll get it."

Pretty much. Brad, I highly respect your opinion and your many years burning and contributing. Your write up on your blog about deep cycle batteries was indispensable to me in 2008 when I was putting together my power set up, so I thank you for that. But the auction as you describe almost certainly would result in tickets selling out in minutes at a very high price. Let it go, man!

[bradtem]

Once again, it does not do that.

Let's say, for a theory, we start at $20,000 per ticket. You really think 40,000 tickets would sell out immediately? Then it drops $500 an hour for 36 hours to $2,000. Then it drops $50 an hour for 24 hours, and then $20 a day thereafter. Can you tell me which of these levels is the level where it all sells out? Do you tell me there is no series of levels I can design (with all the knowledge BMOrg would have) where you can't tell me you are sure it all sells out at that level?

(Ie. don't tell me you think you know the answer for this, tell me why, no matter what schedule of prices you will always be able to reliably spot the level at which it sells out. I could start it at $1,000,000 per ticket if I wanted, will it sell out within minutes?)

No, I won't let this go. If you think it will sell out in minutes, I don't mean to be insulting, but you don't understand how it works -- which may be my fault in explaining it. However, it is not necessary that people understand this component. All that is required is that they learn how to bid their true value.

In the sealed bid model there is no "selling out in minutes" -- it's not even possible. Yes, it might be that within minutes the auctioneer learns that $300 bids are a waste of time. Generally the auctioneer is not even looking at that, because it is important they don't share this information, that is what sealed bid is all about -- the bids are not opened, even by the auctioneer, until the auction closes, and anybody can win at any time during the auction with a bid over the minimum winner. A bid one minute after it opens, or 1 minute before it closes, or any other time.

[vargaso]

Once again, it does not do that.

Let's say, for a theory, we start at $20,000 per ticket. You really think 40,000 tickets would sell out immediately? Then it drops $500 an hour for 36 hours to $2,000. Then it drops $50 an hour for 24 hours, and then $20 a day thereafter. Can you tell me which of these levels is the level where it all sells out? Do you tell me there is no series of levels I can design (with all the knowledge BMOrg would have) where you can't tell me you are sure it all sells out at that level?

(Ie. don't tell me you think you know the answer for this, tell me why, no matter what schedule of prices you will always be able to reliably spot the level at which it sells out. I could start it at $1,000,000 per ticket if I wanted, will it sell out within minutes?)

No, I won't let this go. If you think it will sell out in minutes, I don't mean to be insulting, but you don't understand how it works -- which may be my fault in explaining it. However, it is not necessary that people understand this component. All that is required is that they learn how to bid their true value.

In the sealed bid model there is no "selling out in minutes" -- it's not even possible. Yes, it might be that within minutes the auctioneer learns that $300 bids are a waste of time. Generally the auctioneer is not even looking at that, because it is important they don't share this information, that is what sealed bid is all about -- the bids are not opened, even by the auctioneer, until the auction closes, and anybody can win at any time during the auction with a bid over the minimum winner. A bid one minute after it opens, or 1 minute before it closes, or any other time.

The thing I'd be willing to bet a lot of money on is that this kind of auction would result in a higher ticket price than $390, because it's already been proven that that price point results in a sellout in minutes. At what price point it would sell out, I can't say for sure. With demand being 4x supply, I would guess in the $800 range. How quickly it would reach that is irrelevant, but I'd guess it wouldn't take long at all. I don't see an upside to your proposal.

[bradtem]

The thing I'd be willing to bet a lot of money on is that this kind of auction would result in a higher ticket price than $390, because it's already been proven that that price point results in a sellout in minutes. At what price point it would sell out, I can't say for sure. With demand being 4x supply, I would guess in the $800 range. How quickly it would reach that is irrelevant, but I'd guess it wouldn't take long at all. I don't see an upside to your proposal.

Absolutely it will return more than $390 -- I said that in the opening post. My estimate is in the $500 to $600 range, but it could go higher. I don't think $800, but in fact you can learn where it will be by doing a survey, and the second time you do it you know a lot about where it will go.

But that''s the point. You sell one block of tickets a market price -- which is high -- so that there is no shortage for those folks, and you use that excess to meet other community goals, like subsidized tickets, art funding and many other things. (Though apparently suggesting that more money could help a team be more effective is saying fuck you to them, because all teams are executing perfectly with their current budets

That is the point of this -- how best to combine markets, which are the only real solution to shortages, with the burning man ethic of not making the event only accessible to the wealthy. Even if you don't think this is the best way to do that, I think it is the right goal, and that randomness is a poor solution to the general ticket problem. Some agree with me on that, some don't

[forty_eight]

choose the tier you want to enter at the start of the sale and be locked into it until it sold out.

scrub 5 different lists to make sure there aren't scalpers on them

does this even happen, tho

to an extent that makes it effective, at least

even the whole report scalped tickets thing seems weak

they suspended/cancelled how many tickets last year ... not a lot, iirc.

but, i agree with one thing peeps have been saying.

no method of selling tickets makes more tickets appear and there are going to be intenders on the outside looking in

life ain't fair is what my momma always told me

don't know why burning man would/could be different

just like life

it takes luck

then determination and some luck

[vargaso]

The thing I'd be willing to bet a lot of money on is that this kind of auction would result in a higher ticket price than $390, because it's already been proven that that price point results in a sellout in minutes. At what price point it would sell out, I can't say for sure. With demand being 4x supply, I would guess in the $800 range. How quickly it would reach that is irrelevant, but I'd guess it wouldn't take long at all. I don't see an upside to your proposal.

Absolutely it will return more than $390 -- I said that in the opening post. My estimate is in the $500 to $600 range, but it could go higher. I don't think $800, but in fact you can learn where it will be by doing a survey, and the second time you do it you know a lot about where it will go.

But that''s the point. You sell one block of tickets a market price -- which is high -- so that there is no shortage for those folks, and you use that excess to meet other community goals, like subsidized tickets, art funding and many other things. (Though apparently suggesting that more money could help a team be more effective is saying fuck you to them, because all teams are executing perfectly with their current budets

That is the point of this -- how best to combine markets, which are the only real solution to shortages, with the burning man ethic of not making the event only accessible to the wealthy. Even if you don't think this is the best way to do that, I think it is the right goal, and that randomness is a poor solution to the general ticket problem. Some agree with me on that, some don't

I think most people, myself included, are more accepting of the vagaries of chance or "randomness" than of over-engineering by an institution. Your solution introduces more complexity and human meddling, for lack of a better word. Also, as you state, ticket prices will be higher for most, and subsidized for a few. This would create a highly stratified BRC population, artificially. I don't think that's a good thing. We can quibble about whether the price would be 600 or 800 bucks, but that is irrelevant.

[maladroit]

Absolutely it will return more than $390 -- I said that in the opening post. My estimate is in the $500 to $600 range, but it could go higher. I don't think $800, but in fact you can learn where it will be by doing a survey, and the second time you do it you know a lot about where it will go.

And this is the end result we all, with full understanding of this concept (because it's simple and you're insulting us by saying we can't grasp it), don't like about the idea. With demand 4x supply, $800 seems fully attainable. Your proposal does nothing to solve the problem, except price certain people out of the event. And even while you admit this will happen, you still refuse to admit that's what it would be. "Don't you see, it's a Dutch Auction, everyone sets their own Tru-Heart(tm) price. It's not raising the price until only the rich can afford it, it's just capitalism at work therefore automatically fair!"

[Eric]

No, I won't let this go.

[mod hat off]

This is obvious. It's also obvious that you won't listen to very realistic and honest appraisals of the enormous weaknesses in your idea. Please, feel free to continue blowing smoke into the internet, but this idea has so many flaws that it will never be taken up. There's a reason that you don't see a single professional event that sells out use this plan (like Coachella, or Bonnaroo, or major concerts).
It. Doesn't. Work. For. Scarce. High-Demand. Items.

[/mod hat on]

Absolutely it will return more than $390 -- I said that in the opening post. My estimate is in the $500 to $600 range, but it could go higher.

So, honestly, your entire plan is to make it so Burners with less money can't go, unless they get one of the "special" tickets that still have 4 people vying for every single one! At least you're honest that your plan is about making the event shift it's focus to the better-off.