It looks like Europe will be the first to fall. The yield on Greek bonds is over 12%. Greece needs another bailout to pay for the first bailout.
http://poorrichards-blog.blogspot.com/2 ... e-now.html
The ECB might print-to-pay. Who knows?
We're closing in on the culmination of a credit cycle. The structural defects preclude an exit. Here is a list and explanation of the major defects;
http://www.alternet.org/economy/149104/ ... ytime_soon
Here are some interesting details on how the wealth is transferred.
In 2008, the Royal Bank of Scotland posted a 24 billion pound loss. Their cronies in GOV swooped in and bailed them out. How did RBS go insolvent?
"According to the FSA, RBS’s collapse was solely due to its decision to pay, along with its European partners Fortis and Santander, the astronomic sum of £71 billion to buy the Dutch bank, ABN Amro, "
OK, so I give you 71 billion pounds for your soon-to-be-worthless bank. Then, I send that bill to the taxpayers. Voila' ,,, we're both rich.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/dec20 ... -d24.shtml
The reason that there won't be a painless exit from this whole mess is because, it's systemic and too pervasive.
Bankers made NINJA loans knowing that they weren't any good. It would have been tolerable to the system if only a few had been made. The same is true for the rape of the taxpayer,,, the system and the paper currency.
The S&L crisis was such a wonderful opportunity that it was taken "mainline" to get even better results. Just as the bankers ignored the pervasiveness of NINJA loans, they ignored the scope of the collateral damage accretting to the financial system.
They wrote over 1 $ quadrillion in "loan insurance" expecting to be paid off when the loans blew. Their little greed fest has blown the system all to hell.
Hundreds of $ billions in sour loans to Mac n Mae have gone bad and have to be
taken back onto their books.
This debt exposure can only be paid off by the producing economy. Banks / GOV are bending over backwards to get the producing economy to start producing profits,,, to be skimmed off. They keep extending credit to pay off earlier loans because the producing economy is unable to pay them off.
They keep printing tons of paper to pay off the banks for loans that can't be paid off by the producing economy. Actually, they push a button,,, create zeros,, and send in those zeros to pay off each other.
The producing economy is very fragile. GOV is going to drop down with a shitload of taxes to hurry up the payoffs to the financial system.
GOV takes in a chunk of money from the people and sends some of it back out to the people. Banks want the payouts to stop so that they can absorb the chunk that formerly went to SS benefits, etc. So far, GOV has been able to borrow and print enough to avoid austerity.
The bankers will demand borrowing FIRST,,, Austerity SECOND,,, and printing THIRD.
Borrowing can be defaulted= no loss.
Austerity= no loss to them
Printing= dilution of their existing dollars.
Borrowing is falling off in a big way. Banks want austerity to kick in. Since they severely miscalculated the enormity of the credit bubble, I believe that they severely overestimated the ability of the producing economy to make good on the debts that it received from the financial sector.
Either the banks will be eventually overwhelmed by their debt OR the banks will print enough "money" to pay off their debts,,, at the same time destroying the dollar.
Maybe a combination of the 2.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.