Survival

[Sail Man]

ygmir, I have to say, in a way I do envy you. There is def. some satisfaction gained by surviving the elements. Boy, I'd sure love to smell a wood stove right bout now...

[unjonharley]

ygmir, I have to say, in a way I do envy you. There is def. some satisfaction gained by surviving the elements. Boy, I'd sure love to smell a wood stove right bout now...

com'on in, snowed in 4 2 days.. fire holding @64F. i eat out of stored good, so nothing diff there. have rocket stove 4 standby. 12v standby. reading 2day. bd time @ sundown. life is good.

4 wheeler just tryed our hill.. slide-away. kids r sleding now.

[Elderberry]

well,
we got a foot of snow last night, and, the power went out this morning.......
I'm operating on emergency generator and have been cooking on the wood stove...............
food in the pantry, candles and oil lamps.........we're set..........
Plowed all the neighbors places who don't have 4 wheel drive.........

Just thought I'd report on, as minor as it is, my satisfaction with being prepared for emergencies, natural disasters, and such...........

in keeping with the spirit of the thread, that is.......

Just don't think of 'a foot of snow' and 'california' in the same thought.

But I remember some big snow storms back in ohio where we had power outages. It was actually sort of an adventure--got a chance to start a fire in the fire-place; bundle up to keep warm; and there always was a full pantry.

Hope things get back to normal for you up there and they get your power back on soon.

JK

[Barbie]

We saw blue skies for the first time in 4 days here in Hawaii- at the height of the storm we got 13 inches in 12 hours. Houses and cars floated away.
Most of the Bizs here in my little town took 3 inches to foot and a half of water and mud...

Outside my door is a big ag. field. At one point there was a water fall coming off the road into the field - making a raging river about 4 to 6 feet deep.

I feel so sorrry for those farmers- the food is RUINED. ANd they worked hard in that field

soooooo anyways... were hoping the Dam HOLDS!!!

Or you'll be hearing about us on The NEWS...

[mdmf007]

Even though EMS doesn't pay worth shit (my garbage man makes more then I do!)At least I have a job. Can't see them off-shoring my line of work.

Oh Horrors! What if they off-shored 911 operators?!

I've heard of this being done.
Reactions were not favorable.

Call centers are often consolidated - I know of many communities mnaged from centers hundreds of miles away - very common in Alaska. I see no reason 911 couldnt be outsourced overseas. I think its a matter of time until this happens. Even if it is only outsourced from metorpolitn areas to rural areas where the cost of living and prevailing wage is a lot less. Any savings realized by a municipality is welcomed these days.

[unjonharley]

Even though EMS doesn't pay worth shit (my garbage man makes more then I do!)At least I have a job. Can't see them off-shoring my line of work.

Oh Horrors! What if they off-shored 911 operators?!

I've heard of this being done.
Reactions were not favorable.

Call centers are often consolidated - I know of many communities mnaged from centers hundreds of miles away - very common in Alaska. I see no reason 911 couldnt be outsourced overseas. I think its a matter of time until this happens. Even if it is only outsourced from metorpolitn areas to rural areas where the cost of living and prevailing wage is a lot less. Any savings realized by a municipality is welcomed these days.

i was depressed. i called the helpline. i got a call center in Pakistan. i told them i was suicidal. they got all excited. asked if i could drive a truck.

[MoisturePup]

Even though EMS doesn't pay worth shit (my garbage man makes more then I do!)At least I have a job. Can't see them off-shoring my line of work.

Oh Horrors! What if they off-shored 911 operators?! :shock:

I've heard of this being done.
Reactions were not favorable.

Call centers are often consolidated - I know of many communities mnaged from centers hundreds of miles away - very common in Alaska. I see no reason 911 couldnt be outsourced overseas. I think its a matter of time until this happens. Even if it is only outsourced from metorpolitn areas to rural areas where the cost of living and prevailing wage is a lot less. Any savings realized by a municipality is welcomed these days.

I would hate to call 911, not knowing my exact location, and naming a nearby landmark only to have the Indian national respond "I do not know this place you speak of sir."

[BAS]

Good point, MoisturePup! There already is enough of that sort of confusion with non-emergency numbers and locals answering the call. (Personal experience speaking here...)

[Elderberry]

Good point, MoisturePup! There already is enough of that sort of confusion with non-emergency numbers and locals answering the call. (Personal experience speaking here...)

I think GPS will eventually make not make knowing your exact location irrelevant to being located anyway.

JK

[mdmf007]

I've heard of this being done.
Reactions were not favorable.

Call centers are often consolidated - I know of many communities mnaged from centers hundreds of miles away - very common in Alaska. I see no reason 911 couldnt be outsourced overseas. I think its a matter of time until this happens. Even if it is only outsourced from metorpolitn areas to rural areas where the cost of living and prevailing wage is a lot less. Any savings realized by a municipality is welcomed these days.

I would hate to call 911, not knowing my exact location, and naming a nearby landmark only to have the Indian national respond "I do not know this place you speak of sir."

good point - unfortunately they can learn these landmarks as well. Thats done now. I worked dispatch for a short time when I was laid up on injury. I was dispatching for an area at the south end of the county I had never heard of. So its done, maybe not well, but still possible.

[can't sit still]

Guns are great and all that but, for now, survival means keeping some kind of job. Since things turn out worse than GOV predicts, next quarter is going to be very bad. GOV predicts 2 million jobs lost. We'll see. GOV is also talking about lots more taxes. That should put another nail in the coffin of manufacturing and commerce.
Shadow stats says that unemployment is 16%. No telling how high it will go.

There are very credible predictions that the US will lose 1/3 of it's economy in the next 4 years. Celente, the Austrian and Russian economists all agree. It will be worse in many other countries. The IMF reports that there is going to be worldwide rioting. The IMF also says that there is going to have to be a different system for distributing the world's wealth. Strong words from an organization like that.

Bare-knuckles capitalism has never come to an accommodation with automation. Right now, our system has 3 tiers,,, more or less. If you're one of the very wealthy, your wealth just keeps multiplying itself. If you work, you get by at one level or another. If you don't work, you live on the fringe,,, more or less.

No new system will ever work unless it ties remuneration to responsible reproduction. There can't be any stability in the developed world if the developing world is exploding their population to garner the manufacturing jobs. The developed world can't survive with falling birth rates if GOV imposes crushing taxes.
Bare-knuckles capitalism can't help but bring about these problems. Socialism is a catastrophe unless it has strict limits on population. Democracy is hopeless because the populace always bankrupts the state.

A fusion of the isms is what is needed. It won't happen until the non-developed countries voluntarily limit their populations. As long as you feed them, their pop will grow to the limits of their resources. As long as the UN food trucks keep coming, so will the babies.
In the meantime, 35,000 children under the age of 5 die every day. Most die from polluted water. With global-cooling kicking in, there will be less evaporation and less precipitation. The pollution levels will get worse.

It's a sad scenario. Since the non-developed world will not accept outside controls on their population, it's up to mother nature.
In short............Get a job

[mdmf007]

Dr. Hubbert predicted this decades ago, vut you dont need to be a rocket scientist to see that coming -

Oil is finite, and basically evil. look at what our population has done in terms of numbers in the last 150 years.

It took 10000 years to reach a billion people around 1810
1.65 billion by 1900
2.50 billion by 1950
6.00 billion by 2000

you see a problem with this? best estimates are that the earth can support around 9.5 billion with food being distrubited efficiently from the growers (US) to the not so good growers (africa and parts of Asia)

when it hits 10.5 billion this will break down, as the oil will be hard to get and expensive, so there will be a big die off, pandemics famine etc. best part is that the US will probably simply isolate our selves, toughen up our borders and take care of ourselves whilst a couple or three billion people die off or more. this will alleviate the problem until it repeats.

happy daus coming!!!

[Ugly Dougly]

Dr. Hubbert predicted this decades ago, vut you dont need to be a rocket scientist to see that coming -

Oil is finite, and basically evil. look at what our population has done in terms of numbers in the last 150 years.

It's primarily "evil" modern medicine that has allowed the population to grow as it has. Woman don't generally die in childbirth anymore and most children are likely to grow up to reproduce.

[Sail Man]

Call centers are often consolidated - I know of many communities mnaged from centers hundreds of miles away - very common in Alaska. I see no reason 911 couldnt be outsourced overseas. I think its a matter of time until this happens. Even if it is only outsourced from metorpolitn areas to rural areas where the cost of living and prevailing wage is a lot less. Any savings realized by a municipality is welcomed these days.

I would hate to call 911, not knowing my exact location, and naming a nearby landmark only to have the Indian national respond "I do not know this place you speak of sir."

good point - unfortunately they can learn these landmarks as well. Thats done now. I worked dispatch for a short time when I was laid up on injury. I was dispatching for an area at the south end of the county I had never heard of. So its done, maybe not well, but still possible.

"Hello, this is 911, I am Rajah and I thank you for calling us this fine day."

""Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh""

"Hello, thank you, I am fine, yes? What is the problem you are having today?"

""I just cut my leg off with a chainsaw!!""

"Oh, I see...so it is a hardware problem, this you speak of. Please let me transfer you to the proper department. And remember, your call is valuable to us"

[can't sit still]

A couple relevant notes;
"But worse, once these small businesses fail, the resulting loss of jobs will cause millions to add to the ranks of the unemployed. Note that self-employed business owners (16.2 million according to the SBA) employ between 1-10 employees.
An NASE survey at www.nase.org , was the first to provide compelling evidence of small business involvement in the upcoming toxic mortgage crisis. The survey was created by Prof. Samuel D. Bornstein and Jung I. Song, CPA of BornsteinSong Consultants in Oakhurst,NJ,and was conducted by the National Association for the Self-Employed (NASE) which issued a Press Release on November 21, 2008.

According to this survey, it is estimated that 3,709,800 small business owners hold Alt-A and other toxic mortgages, and 1,279,800 are already delinquent as they have missed one to three or more monthly mortgage payments at mid-November, before the expected Resets that are scheduled to begin in 4th Quarter 2008 through 2012. These small business owners will be at-risk of payment shock and default as their monthly mortgage payments skyrocket. Small business owners were especially targeted for these Alt-A loans which required little or no documentation of income which appealed to many small business owners who previously were unable to qualify.

The resulting defaults will be the cause of the upcoming second tsunami wave of foreclosures that will dwarf the subprime crisis and will take many homeowners, small business owners, and their employees at this critical time when our economy can ill afford it.
Thank you,
Samuel D. Bornstein
Professor of Accounting & Taxation
Kean University, School of Business, Union, NJ
Half the loans are already in default before a reset!

"Police crushed "Dissent Marchers" holding copies of Russia's constitution above their heads in Moscow's Triumfalnaya Square. "
Imagine that; You're a dissident if you march with the constitution. That could never happen here. Where would you ever find a copy?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... world.html
"Guangdong, now the riot hub of South China. Some 40m Chinese workers are expected to lose their jobs. Party officials have warned of "mass-scale social turmoil". "
I imagine that 40 million hungry people could get quite restless.
Get a job

[can't sit still]

The gold bugs are getting even more strident;" We don’t have riots in the streets; we don’t have a revolution. That’s coming; that’s about two to three months off. "
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/1991
Hmmm, 2--3 months. I should quit my job and head for the hills. I can survive by eating gold.
The U.S. has priced itself out of the global wage market. We're now spending-down our savings. Same as Japan. Private individuals have made a quick adjustment to the cash-flow problem. GOV is spending even more. It's classic Keynes. Keynes and Bernanke never learned that academia and the real world often have different outcomes.

U.S. wages are slowly reverting to the global mean. We had prosperity after WWII because we owned all the manufacturing capacity that didn't get blow up. The world now has it's own manufacturing capacity. We got used to high wages and don't like the idea of working for the global norm. We have to get used to the idea of working for survival rather than luxuries. But, since we have such an "overshoot" in credit, manufacturing capacity, housing and Starbucks, we're going to have a long stagnant period until this adjusts.

The danger is that GOV is going to try to revert to version 1.0 and blow the whole system out of the water. There is a very real possibility that GOV will blow the bond market. That will be messy.
Get a job!

[Elderberry]

The U.S. has priced itself out of the global wage market. ...

...U.S. wages are slowly reverting to the global mean.

I have said this many times. Which is the main problem with unions--they need to accept the problem and re-train their members for higher paying jobs or let them know they will be doing the same jobs for much less money and have to adjust their life style appropriately.

JK

[Box Burner]

I would hate to call 911, not knowing my exact location, and naming a nearby landmark only to have the Indian national respond "I do not know this place you speak of sir."

good point - unfortunately they can learn these landmarks as well. Thats done now. I worked dispatch for a short time when I was laid up on injury. I was dispatching for an area at the south end of the county I had never heard of. So its done, maybe not well, but still possible.

"Hello, this is 911, I am Rajah and I thank you for calling us this fine day."

""Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh""

"Hello, thank you, I am fine, yes? What is the problem you are having today?"

""I just cut my leg off with a chainsaw!!""

"Oh, I see...so it is a hardware problem, this you speak of. Please let me transfer you to the proper department. And remember, your call is valuable to us"

Call centers in rural areas (USA)) are not as attractive as the appear.

Call centers always have a high turnover on employees. In rural areas there is a very limited labor pool. Often when jobs become available in a big city emloyees who live close to that city will quit and go there instead. So in order to meet staffing requirements it is often nessesary to have lots of overtime, sometimes this can be forced overtime. Because of the shortage of needed employees rural call centers often have to hire back former employees who were fired for fucking up. Even those who intentionally screwed the company or the people who called in for service. Not just the ones who missed too many days of work or were late too often. In rural areas people are used to taking jobs (full or part time) and leaving them after only a few months. I knew people who had worked at almost every place in town (rural Kentucky) without ever being fired. Most of the people were farmers and so a job was always supplimental income. Higher wages would improve the employee turnover situation but just as in the big cities the wages would have to be significantly higher to have any real effect. And of course just as in the big cities, many of the newhires are kids who really don't care and will probably quit in a few weeks anyway.

Outsourcing 911 services is a monumentally stupid idea. And that is why it will probably be done.

[BAS]

Because of the shortage of needed employees rural call centers often have to hire back former employees who were fired for fucking up. Even those who intentionally screwed the company or the people who called in for service. Not just the ones who missed too many days of work or were late too often.

Actually, in my experience, being late too often is worse than nearly all other fuck ups. It is called "time theft", and is considered stealing from the company-- because "time is money", "money is power" and power is All. It is seen as trying to usurp the company's power-- and trying to rebel against the Order is the biggest sin of all. (Sort of like in the Bible, since business is the religion of the United States of America, and the pursuit of material wealth the greatest virtue.)

[can't sit still]

Well, January is just around the corner. Who knows what surprises are in store? Biden and Powell have stated that we have a huge problem waiting to hit us jan 21 or 22. It's comforting to know that our disasters are scheduled. Here is an article that makes good points speculating exactly what the January surprise is going to be.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... leId=11491
He says; default. It doesn't seem unlikely. Our debts are truly unpayable. The US GOV probably wouldn't have any problem at all,,, giving the finger to the rest of the world. I imagine that our big Jan surprise is no surprise to most world leaders. Interestingly enough, a GOV official in Japan said that Japan should write off the debt owed by the US. Are they trying to put a magnanimous face on a done-deal?
The WORLD won't have a lot of options. They can piss and moan,,, and keep exporting to us. They can piss and moan and stop exporting to us. This will be partly determined by how much they need our food exports.
bush did insist on filling the petroleum reserve in spite of record high prices,,, even after Pelosi asked him to postpone. GOV did buy ALL the freeze dried food from Mountain House. bush did lay all the groundwork for martial law. Well, in 3 weeks, we will have a better idea. The general expectation of default was for summer.
Dan

[ygmir]

yeah,
it'll be interesting if "we" do default..........
for the most part, IMHO, the rest of the world needs us more than we need them...........and, life still goes on..........so, a bunch of paper and electronic treasure disappears.
well, we still need cars, electricity, rutabagas. and, chicken.........we still gotta get it somewhere, and, so does everyone else..........

I'll be putting a seatbelt on my lazyboy recliner..................

[Sail Man]

I'll be putting a seatbelt on my lazyboy recliner..................

Don't forget a roll-bar

[ygmir]

you are so smart.....

[can't sit still]

It's projected that the U.S. will lose jobs at the rate of 1 million a month through 2009 and into 2010.
"On average, unemployment rises for almost five years, "
http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers ... trieve.php? The cited study mentions that the great depression in the U.S. was unusual in that unemployment was unusually high. It hit 25%. Currently we're already at half of that according to "shadow stats" If we lose 1 million jobs a month and unemployment rises for 5 years, we're definitely going to be in deep do do.
Obama says that he'll create 3 million jobs. He won't find the funding. He plans to create those jobs in infrastructure works. That's nice but, infrastructure investments do not increase the wealth of the country. Neither do service jobs. Manufacturing and resource extraction increase the wealth of a nation.
The wealth of the country will be pissed away paying for imports, war, debt interest and GOV. None of these things increase wealth. There are plenty of countries that have less environmental protection and can extract resources cheaper than we can. That means that we should seriously increase R&D and manufacturing in the areas that are innovative for high-value products.
If Obama pisses away time and money on shitty Keynesian economics,,,, trying to reinflate a bubble with serious leaks,,,, building highways and bridges with borrowed money.................................... we're forked.
Germany is the strongest and most responsible economy in the West. They just did a GOV bond offer. It failed. The U.S. can't service it's debt without huge bond sales. I doubt that the U.S. GOV will last much longer than the end of this year.
How many times do I have to say it; GET A JOB!!!

[can't sit still]

Here's some general links on financial survival. They are generally gloomy. There is tons of reading though;
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/survival.html
The link that I posted above was incomplete. Funny that nobody asked for the complete link
http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers ... ?pdfid=140

Now, Obama is taking over the helm of the ship of state. He talks about spending lots on infrastructure. Problem is, infrastructure work does not increase national wealth. There is a sort-of exception. If he directs money to alternative energy, it will reduce our annual $ 800 billion oil expenditure.
If he can wrestle the country out of the hands of the war-for-profit nobility and the oil-gods, he may be able to mitigate the worst effects of the depression. If the military-banking-war industry powers continue to hold sway, we'll just spiral farther down. GOV spends 36% of the GDP. It's proving to be unsustainable in the long run.
How does Obama plan to stimulate the economy, reduce GOV and create jobs,,,,,,,,, all at the same time? If he doesn't come up with a plan that sounds viable, he's dead in the water,,,,, and so are we. He expects to borrow a few trillion for a stimulus. He also needs a few trillion to float the banks. That might come from the FED
The stimulus package needs to be funded with borrowed money.
If he can't convince investors that the package is some kind of miracle, he won't get the overseas funding. No funding,,,,, no stimulus.
Most other countries are using their reserves to stimulate their own economies. It's doubtful that he can pry lose the money even with a miraculous plan.
I imagine that the markets will let Obama know just what they think of his plan by February. So far the markets have rejected any and all plans.
The investors know deep down in their cold hearts that only the middle class can create the wealth of the nation. Any rescue plans that don't get the middle class working on salable export products,,,,, will only reshuffle existing wealth.
GET a job

[can't sit still]

An interesting history of paper money;
http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00405

[Elderberry]

That was interesting--especially the graph showing the purchasing power of the dollar over time.

JK

[can't sit still]

Well, I don't have any survival advice that hasn't been given before. Mental preparedness is very important. Just imagine yourself as a hunter-gatherer
We seem to be in a race. Is the dollar going to collapse as suggested by Ron Paul? OR Is the U.S. going to default on it's foreign debt payments? GOV is talking about borrowing a few $ Trillion for stimulus. Nobody is talking about lending it to us. That would lead to default. The dollar is showing some strength because the rest of the currencies are so much worse. That might throw the race to default instead of collapse.

Then again, the banks may all collapse and take down the productive economy with them.

Money is starting to flow out of treasuries and into money markets. That too, would lead to default. In 8 months, we should know for sure.
Film at 11:00 !! http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/1 ... ntina.html
Get a job!!!

[can't sit still]

Some of the fundamentals of the current economic problems are worse than the fundamentals in 1933. A crash of commercial real estate seems to be unavoidable. Also, a crash of Alt-A loans is moving right along. All of these things will hurt the dollar;
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/01/t ... ollar.html The dollar can only take just so much thumping and it will collapse.
GOV is currently fighting deflation. Only problem is that, we don't have deflation. We have price reductions due to fundamental supply and demand changes. Nobody wants to buy shitty financial assets. This includes overpriced commodity instruments. GOV is creating inflationary pressures to fight non-existent deflation. Soon, they will get their wish.

It's expected by some that hyperinflation will begin in China and spread to the rest of the world; http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08 ... 12009.html
The debt spiral and the inflation will be bad for employment.
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/def ... px?cat=pmp
When/if Obama's stimulus plans fail for lack of funding, there really isn't any "plan B"
GET A FUCKING JOB !!!!

[can't sit still]

"Jim Sinclair is the world's largest gold trader. He is telling people to get a portable generator. The MAN carried 22,000 gold futures contracts at the peak of the last bull market and sold at the top"
" And food. Bread lines are coming. I see a lot of writers laughing at the possibility of a depression. I'm not talking about a depression, I'm talking about a total wipeout of the system. "

http://www.superiorsilverco.com/data/in ... colates%3F++)1%2F29%2F09...Stewart+Thompson
I tried twice on that link,,, oh well.
He seems a bit pessimistic