Global Cooling

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 4:46 pm

Ugly Dougly wrote:Li'l flower, I am not sure where you get the idea that earthquakes could be linked to climate change. Maybe there is a connection that I am not aware of?

dougly, i never meant to suggest that they were linked. knowing my extremely limited ability to understand all of this stuff, i tend to follow the arguments, reading stuff here and there, rather than studying the science itself. naturally, that gets confusing, and i forget what i read where, and no doubt dream stuff that i thought i read .... dog knows there's a ton of info out there. so, thinking about naturally occurring CO2, i couldn't help wondering if the earth was letting off CO2 with volcanoes, earthquakes, &c. it's hard to explain what i mean. but i have heard other people link them, particularly around the time of the huge earthquake/tsunami a few years ago, so i thought i'd ask, knowing that doc knows a lot about this stuff.

ultimately, it's one big planet... and there is so much we do not understand...

Oldguy · Post by **Oldguy** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:54 pm

I recall reading somewhere that like the ocean tides, the earth's mantle is also affected by the moon's cycle. I assume that the varying ocean depths also affects the rate and location of seismic events. Seems reasonable that the weather also affects seismic events...wave swell and weather front movements across the ocean's surface. I suppose there is a chart somewhere co-relating moon cycles with activity...

_____________
I edited to spell reasonable reasonably well.

dr.placebo · Post by **dr.placebo** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:17 pm

It's highly desirable for a scientist (or anyone else) to stay aware of what is not known, and to cope honestly with uncertainty, and to stay open to new data and explanations.

It's just as important to be able to build upon what we have learned. Issac Newton, in an uncharacteristically modest moment, said that if he had seen farther than others it is because he stood on the shoulders of giants. It's critical to be able to build on sound foundations. Laying the foundations over and over again is a hopeless task.

Strictly speaking, climatologists are not especially interested in the weather (at least professionally). What fascinates climatologists is improving the understanding of a very large and complex system, and being able to predict the trends soon enough that we can take some action. The vast majority of climatologists think that we have enough knowledge to make reliable predictions, and many believe that the time for corrective action is quite short. Denigrating their work is not helpful.

What worries me the most is not where the climatologists may be wrong, it's that they may be right, but that we won't act on the information until it is too late. Not too late to preserve our species (we do seem to survive a lot), but too late to avoid the needless suffering of billions of people. Maybe that's the way it has to be, but I don't have to like it, even if it will mostly take place after I'm gone.

I greatly like the Amerindian proverb: "We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children."

Dad · Post by **Dad** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:31 pm

Lil" Flower,
My thought and perhaps abstract and beyond those who accept the teachings they are given.

1st, volcanoes and earthquakes are common.

The atmospheric testing is rather new.

No one can trust anything sponsored by a government.

The Stars are untouched by humans.

We all know what is just.

The earth will do what it does.

We will question what the earth does and blame some one.

And than there are a few who just say? Been there, done that, and just have to watch.

Amazing were this went. LOL

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:02 pm

You can argue all you want about biotic oil. Nobody has ever presented a mechanism for nature to convert solid cellulosic material to liquid hydrocarbons.

The hypothesis to connect earthquakes to space weather is very simple. The universe is one big plasma flow. These plasma flows supposedly cause the reverse of the piezoelectric effect. When you squeeze a crystal, it can give off electricity. Reportedly, when you induce a current in a crystal it can expand. I haven't checked it myself. There are often reports of lightning during earthquakes. http://perspect.siuc.edu/05_fall/earthquakes.html
I haven't seen any connection between climate change and earthquakes.

This report says that we cross the galactic plane every 33 million years;
http://answers.google.com/answers/threa ... 76560.html
I can't seem to find the "26,000" year reference that I read before.

John Bedini claims that the sun powers the rotation of the earth like a big Faraday motor. If that is true, perturbations to the sun could cause perturbations to our crust. With all the new probes in space, I'm sure that we'll learn a lot in the next few years.
All very interesting

sputnik · Post by **sputnik** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:23 pm

You know...when people say things the way you do CSS...well...what's the point.

Dad · Post by **Dad** » Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:48 pm

A friend asked me to look into Santa ana's and Hurricanes. Found 2 Fire Storms during Hurricane issues but have not found true Santa Ana Wind Data to do a true look at. Any One know of a site that shows Santa Ana Wind Data?

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:59 am

Dad wrote: No one can trust anything sponsored by a government.

This is waaaaaaaaaaaay too blanket. Should we not have trusted Churchill when he said all he had to offer was "Blood, toil, sweat and tears?"
Life's complicated, governments are complicated and using a simple rule to cut through that (note: I am not talking about Occam's razor and what that cuts through) makes you function on idiot level.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:30 pm

Dad, we get the hot, dry winds here. They call them the "Santa Ana". In Germany, I believe they're called "foen. Other names, depending on locale are sirocco chinook, nor'wester, sundowner. I think that it would be difficult to collect data.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:09 pm

Ah, love those positive ions...

And I believe there's an r in foern, but those damn umlauts always confuse me on that issue.

RingO'Fire · Post by **RingO'Fire** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:04 pm

can't sit still wrote:...I can't seem to find the "26,000" year reference that I read before...

The 26,000-year cycle is one of the three Milankovich cycles, which consist of cycles of:
1. Axial tilt (41,000-year cycle)
2. Orbital eccentricity (413,00-year cycle)
3. Precession (26,000-year cycle)

Precession can be thought of as the circular "wobble" of Earth's axis. Here's an amimation of the precession concept http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gyros ... ession.gif)

All three cycles change the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface, and thus have some contribution to Earth's long-term climate cycles. The exact amounts of these contributions are still under debate.

Here's the wikipedia entry for the Milankovich cycles, which also describes some of the controverting data: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:38 pm

Ms, crypto, you always keep me honest. The German word was dredged up out of memory from reading "The Eiger Sanction" many years ago. I do a lot of things from memory and sometimes my files get corrupted. Are the umlats cousins of the Inupiat? or the oubliette?

RingO'fire, Thanks for the clarification. I'm sure that you know how time consuming it is to present accurate information.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:38 pm

This guy has been a meteorologist for 55 years and does a very good presentation;
http://www.kusi.com/home/78477082.html?video=pop&t=a

Badger · Post by **Badger** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:37 pm

No one can trust anything sponsored by a government.

Then why not go to a strip mall psychic or buy a fucking ouija board for your info then.

Cheesus.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:40 pm

Badger wrote:
No one can trust anything sponsored by a government.
Then why not go to a strip mall psychic or buy a fucking ouija board for your info then.

Cheesus.

true, because, we know the government is always accurate, and, honest, if not forthcoming and open, about the info they give us........

unjonharley · Post by **unjonharley** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:21 pm

ygmir wrote:
Badger wrote:
No one can trust anything sponsored by a government.
Then why not go to a strip mall psychic or buy a fucking ouija board for your info then.

Cheesus.
true, because, we know the government is always accurate, and, honest, if not forthcoming and open, about the info they give us........

Including the USDA rubber stamp of aproval on your food.. Right?

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:27 pm

UJH always stabs it........

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:39 pm

can't sit still wrote:The German word was dredged up out of memory from reading "The Eiger Sanction" many years ago. I do a lot of things from memory and sometimes my files get corrupted. Are the umlats cousins of the Inupiat? or the oubliette?

MOre like the hacek (which is misspelled because you can't spell hacek without a hacek) and the tilda.

Â¨v
ÃŸ
Ã¸
Ã¥
Â£
Â¢
haâˆšxek

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:22 am

littleflower wrote:
Ugly Dougly wrote:Li'l flower, I am not sure where you get the idea that earthquakes could be linked to climate change. Maybe there is a connection that I am not aware of?
dougly, i never meant to suggest that they were linked. knowing my extremely limited ability to understand all of this stuff, i tend to follow the arguments, reading stuff here and there, rather than studying the science itself. naturally, that gets confusing, and i forget what i read where, and no doubt dream stuff that i thought i read .... dog knows there's a ton of info out there. so, thinking about naturally occurring CO2, i couldn't help wondering if the earth was letting off CO2 with volcanoes, earthquakes, &c. it's hard to explain what i mean. but i have heard other people link them, particularly around the time of the huge earthquake/tsunami a few years ago, so i thought i'd ask, knowing that doc knows a lot about this stuff.

ultimately, it's one big planet... and there is so much we do not understand...

My dear friend, I have access to the same internet that you have, same amount of information, same approx number of braincells and a freaking AA in English. Do some googling, please.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:11 am

drive the Prius, drink the kool aid........

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:30 am

Ugly Dougly wrote:
littleflower wrote:ultimately, it's one big planet... and there is so much we do not understand...
My dear friend, I have access to the same internet that you have, same amount of information, same approx number of braincells and a freaking AA in English. Do some googling, please.

my dear dougly,

i suspect that one of us has more faith in his ability to interpret a spectacular amount of information than does the other! thank you, i'd rather ask the good doctor ... and he can choose to ignore me, if he likes. but i don't see how that should put you out.

dr.placebo · Post by **dr.placebo** » Sun Jan 10, 2010 6:16 pm

Littleflower, sorry if I missed your question. Looking back, it seems like you were inquiring about the relation between earthquakes, volcanoes, and climate.

As far as I know there is no direct causal relation between quakes and climate. However, since both quakes and volcanoes are often caused by one tectonic plate subducting under another, increased quakes could be an indicator of increased action at the plate boundaries, which could be related to increased volcanic activity in the near future. Certainly there tends to be more quakes right before an eruption, although that has local causes associated with magma movement.

Recent quakes in California along strike-slip faults (like the San Andreus) probably have no link to climate, since they not due to subduction, and not linked to volcanoes. But volcanoes could erupt in many places in Cali, especially from Long Valley or further north in the state (like Lassen).

Volcanoes affect the climate mainly by emitting ash, SO2, and CO2. Ash and SO2 work towards cooling by cutting down on solar radiation reaching the ground. CO2 works towards warming by scattering the infrared (heat) radiation from the surface, which reduces the rate at which heat escapes from the surface. Since ash and SO2 don't stay in the atmosphere very long (usually years, not decades) volcanic effects on climate tend to have a cooling burst of a few years followed by a longer term warming due to CO2. Which one winds depends on the mix of ash and gases for any given eruption.

So, the summary is that I don't know of a direct link, but it remains possible that increased quakes are evidence for something that could be related to climate.

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Sun Jan 10, 2010 7:27 pm

There is no direct link.

There are those who'd insist - to the contrary - that there are but... well, there aren't any.

None.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:13 pm

Iso would know.

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Mon Jan 11, 2010 8:37 am

thank you, doc ... you have a way of making this stuff easy to understand.

i'm freaking about these earthquakes, more than anything else. don't want to go through that again.... but don't exactly want to leave cali, either. my parents managed to be in lake tahoe for the 1989 loma prieta quake, i gotta figure out how to be out of town when a big one hits! the northridge quake was not fun.

yeah, i know, stop peeking at the USGS site....

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Mon Jan 11, 2010 9:54 am

He made that up.

dr.placebo · Post by **dr.placebo** » Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:50 am

First, if you stay where you are you can still do plenty of things to minimize the harm from an earthquake. Here's a place to start:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/prepare/

If you want to completely avoid the risk of earthquakes then you have to leave the planet. No earth, no earthquakes.

If you want to stay in the US and minimize your risk, consider the following info:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... states.php

If you want to stay in California and minimize your risk, here's a small map:

The absolute worst state in terms of earthquake density is Hawaii, which has more quakes per area than any other state by far (4.7 times the quake density as second place California).

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Mon Jan 11, 2010 12:39 pm

fun stuff ..... i'm up on earthquakes, actually, they've always interested me. and i think they're a lot of fun, as long as they're under 6.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Mon Jan 11, 2010 6:47 pm

Of course, you can probably get a good idea of if your house is on bedrock (good) or fill (bad) by looking up your local governments (they'll have maps on line) and decide whether to get it retrofitted or skedaddle. yadda, yadda, plan, yadda, yadda, food for a week, ect, ect.

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:26 pm

http://www.theskichannel.com/news/skine ... to-weather
Host of the Olympics, Cypress Mountain, to close early due to weather
Due to the warm rainy weather in Vancouver lately, the Vancouver Organizing Committee for the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games (VANOC) and the Cypress Mountain ski area management decided to close the ski resort's alpine runs to the public from now until after the Olympics.

This is happening two and a half weeks before it was supposed to. By closing early, officials are ensuring good snow conservation at Cypress for the Games. There are also several tasks that must be completed before next month, including: the installation of warming tents, fencing, wayfinding signs and Look of the Games banners around the venue.

Tim Gayda is VANOC's vice president of sport: â€œClosing Cypress Mountain early is the responsible thing to do, given the recent weather, in order to make sure weâ€™re ready to host the worldâ€™s best athletes in one monthâ€™s time. We appreciate Cypress Mountain managementâ€™s support and weâ€™d like to thank all Cypress Mountain users for their understanding and look forward to helping welcome them back in March.â€