CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:10 am

lucky420 wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:05 am
[...] Our Governor will say no to any large scale events if numbers don’t go down and it doesn’t look like he could even give bm a definitive answer until May. Would bm need to know yes or no from Nevada before May?
Or the org sells tickets, makes expenditures & cuts contracts, and then an outbreak, wave or full ICUs means permission is never given or is rescinded/barred and gets a BM 2021 cancelled.

Which I guess would be better than BM forever being known as a Super Spreading Event owning downstream cases & deaths, spreading outwards from BRC through the towns of the county, Nevada, and all across America (and to a number of countries around the world?), including decimating previously safe or affected towns along the way. With at least two known more infectious/contagious variants already known to be in America and spreading, how big of a wave could be seeded from a BRC in 2021 as a Super Spreading Event?
  • Where would either a Cancelled event or a Super Spreading Event leave BM and the org going forward?
  • And for either event, where would the liabilities fall: BMOrg, staff, directors, Nevada, Band Councils, towns/cities, counties, BLM, contractors, etc.. Civil? Criminal?
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Token » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:21 am

It would be a mighty experiment in culture for the BORG to just open up pre-registration for tickets and actually know how much demand there is.

The survey is really unreliable for that kind of stuff.

Even if they survive to hold another permitted Playa event, I’d expect it to be reminiscent of the post dot-com bubble burst years.

It was a pleasant ghost town for a spell until monies got infused again.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by art walsh » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:46 pm

If they do a pre-registration, they need to get some useful info.

1. How many tickets - 1 or 2, vehicle pass Y/N
2. As of time of pre-registration, likelihood of going 1 thru 3
1. If it happens I'm going
2. Have to see how vaccinations are going
3. not sure - up in the air --- planning, money, vaccine etc may influence
3. From US, Canada, or other

Other suggestions ???

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:20 pm

4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Elliot » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:06 pm

For whatever thoughts this may suggest:
BMP is hiring an Administrative Coordinator (Temporary) for the period of March to September 2021, which sounds like the "event cycle" to me.
https://recruiting.paylocity.com/Recrui ... ils/446059

"Full disclosure": A camp-mate of mine is applying, and I feel she is splendidly qualified and I support her with all my heart in any and all of her endeavors.

And I also feel it borders in insanity for BMP to even think of holding the event this year.
.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by lucky420 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:48 am

Isn’t bmp more for fly ranch? Maybe it’s for fly ranch tours? :coffee:

I’ll just go read the article and come back
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Token » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:06 am

art walsh wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:46 pm
If they do a pre-registration, they need to get some useful info.

1. How many tickets - 1 or 2, vehicle pass Y/N
2. As of time of pre-registration, likelihood of going 1 thru 3
1. If it happens I'm going
2. Have to see how vaccinations are going
3. not sure - up in the air --- planning, money, vaccine etc may influence
3. From US, Canada, or other

Other suggestions ???
Go bold! $20 non-refundable deposit that gets applied towards ticket purchase, whenever that might be.

Also do one registration : one ticket

I know, too radical for the “gifting culture” hugs.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Elliot » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:42 am

Lucky420, as I understand it, Burning Man Project is the "parent" or "umbrella" organization of everything related to the event in any way, from the event itself to Fly Ranch to Burners Without Borders and so on and so forth.
(I have been wrong before I will be again.)

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:51 pm

Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:44 am
  • 7 out of 10 studies (of numbers so far) suggests B117 has a 30% increased mortality risk.
Variant B117 is now a Variant Of Concern (VOC)
  • With more data and more study, from the U.K., new from scientists on NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group), "it is likely that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation and death compared to infection with non-VOC viruse."
    - "It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low."
    VOC B117 may be 30-70% more severe/deadly than old strains.
  • Hospitalization now ~50:50 male-to-female ratio (compared to more men during 1st wave). “The higher transmissibility means that people who were previously at low risk of catching COVID (particularly younger fitter females) are now catching it and ending up in hospital.″
Variant B1351
  • Both Novavax and J&J vaccines still effective against B1351, albeit attenuated. Both ~50% efficacy.
  • Re-infection: WHO says they're getting reports of people getting re-infected by B1351, "suggesting people who’ve had prior infection could get infected again."
  • B1351 growing in Austria (where British holidaymakers broke rules to visit).
  • B1351 confirmed in Ontario, Canada.
Dr Fauci warned: “The data really are quite suggestive: The level of immunity that you get from natural infection — either the degree of immunity, the intensity of the immunity or the breadth of immunity — is obviously not enough to protect against infection with the mutant”.

Because of poor genomic surveillance in the US, it took a while to realize it’s becoming a problem and growing across the US.
Seven new converging variants with same 677 mutations found independently by experts across the U.S..
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/heal ... ution.html

More news confirming transmission risk through Stool, Blood, Semen & Eye secretions.
Including aerosols coming up out of sewer systems in residences. (multi-unit buildings)

Masks
“False sense of security”—high tech gathering of 49 tech thinkers was held in 4 day “bubble” without mask mandate after arrival testing & daily testing. Result? ~43% (21 of 49) of attendees got COVID19 soon after, but 0% of masked support staff.

from twitter > If indoor dining isn’t okay, then why indoor school cafeterias safe?
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:58 pm

.
A U.S. Covid-19 milestone, call it 500,000 Deaths

U.S. numbers to today ending midnight UTC (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
(using a population size of 332,225,037)
  • 28,381,220 cases - 1 in 12 people
  • 499,991 deaths - 1 in 664 people
  • 9,401,881 Active cases - 1 in 35 people
As in, 1 in 35 people are infected. 1 in 35 people can infect others... (plus those undetected)

On the CDC site, from a study of Covid-19 Excess Deaths
From http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6942e2
U.S. Covid Excess Deaths to Oct 3 is 198,081 deaths.

A simple average gets an estimate for U.S. Covid-19 Excess Deaths for Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, & Feb to today.
All Covid Deaths in the U.S. as of today, February 16, 2021, are around 838K deaths (838,665). 1 in 396 people.

Using simple averages going forward for a ballpark figure, if more of the same, without any extraordinary outbreaks and without any vaccine benefit, All Covid Deaths for the U.S. will be in the order of:
  • 1.109 million Deaths by the end of May 2021, 1 in 299 people.
  • To end Aug 2021, 1.341 million Deaths, 1 in 248.
  • End Dec 2021, 1.651 million Deaths, 1 in 201.
But ballparking it beyond May really isn't valid. But given the factors below, what is...

But they are expecting more outbreaks & waves from the more infectious variants. And at some point a vaccine benefit should start kicking in as rollout continues. And they'll need boosters tailored for those variants as by some time in March to April (depending on where in U.S.), > 50% of cases will be from those variants. So that will reduce vaccine rollout benefit. But as boosters get developed and rolled out, they'll start kicking in. Plus new variants. So when, where, by how much...
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Token » Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:48 pm

Canoe wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:51 pm
Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:44 am
  • 7 out of 10 studies (of numbers so far) suggests B117 has a 30% increased mortality risk.
Variant B117 is now a Variant Of Concern (VOC)
  • With more data and more study, from the U.K., new from scientists on NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group), "it is likely that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation and death compared to infection with non-VOC viruse."
    - "It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low."
    VOC B117 may be 30-70% more severe/deadly than old strains.
  • Hospitalization now ~50:50 male-to-female ratio (compared to more men during 1st wave). “The higher transmissibility means that people who were previously at low risk of catching COVID (particularly younger fitter females) are now catching it and ending up in hospital.″
Variant B1351
  • Both Novavax and J&J vaccines still effective against B1351, albeit attenuated. Both ~50% efficacy.
  • Re-infection: WHO says they're getting reports of people getting re-infected by B1351, "suggesting people who’ve had prior infection could get infected again."
  • B1351 growing in Austria (where British holidaymakers broke rules to visit).
  • B1351 confirmed in Ontario, Canada.
Dr Fauci warned: “The data really are quite suggestive: The level of immunity that you get from natural infection — either the degree of immunity, the intensity of the immunity or the breadth of immunity — is obviously not enough to protect against infection with the mutant”.

Because of poor genomic surveillance in the US, it took a while to realize it’s becoming a problem and growing across the US.
Seven new converging variants with same 677 mutations found independently by experts across the U.S..
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/heal ... ution.html

More news confirming transmission risk through Stool, Blood, Semen & Eye secretions.
Including aerosols coming up out of sewer systems in residences. (multi-unit buildings)

Masks
“False sense of security”—high tech gathering of 49 tech thinkers was held in 4 day “bubble” without mask mandate after arrival testing & daily testing. Result? ~43% (21 of 49) of attendees got COVID19 soon after, but 0% of masked support staff.

from twitter > If indoor dining isn’t okay, then why indoor school cafeterias safe?
117 and 1351 are so last week’s news ...

B.1.525 is the schnitzel!

All the nasty mutations shoved into one variant.

I think this bug is expert at recombination.

https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.525.html

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:57 am

Token wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:48 pm
[...]
B.1.525 is the schnitzel!
All the nasty mutations shoved into one variant.
[...]
mit pommes frites
possibly mit Jäger Soße
Token wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:48 pm
[...]
I think this bug is expert at recombination.
https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.525.html
yup
Impressive is sequences turning up seemingly independently in multiple lineages, instead of being present upstream. Need more genome testing to know where things really stand.

With so many people going around without adequate or faulty preventative measures, or without any, we're generating so many cases we're sure creating opportunities for mutation. ~28 million cases is like ~28 million labs running contaminated replication experiments with potential recombination events, with how many per case...
And that's just the U.S..
At least 110,083,285 cases world wide.
If you roll those dice often enough... what if we get something truely nasty. It's enough of a world-changing event as it's been so far.
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:25 pm

Canoe wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:27 am
[...]
  • 'B117 is starting to surge. It is much much more transmissible and will cause another surge in March and April.'
  • Israel is seeing a sharp rise in <18 cases, as more than 50,000 children and teens have gotten COVID19 since the start of Jan., “This is something we did not witness in previous waves,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said. Some Israeli experts think it’s due to B117.
[...]
Places B117 is hitting children includes
  • Israel update: "Instead of around 29% of new cases coming from children and teens, as in the second wave, now they are around 40% of cases, Public Health Services head Sharon Alroy-Preis said in the Knesset on Monday. The greatest spike was in children between ages of 6 and 9"
  • Kindergarten & primary schools in Denmark
  • Kindergarten in Austria (also B1351 is spreading)
  • Dominant in ages 5 to 9 in U.K., increasing in ages 0 to 4
  • Kindergarten & primary schools in Italy
    - one town, 10% of all residents 60% children, 40% their parents
B117 is still spreading in areas under lockdown/stay-at-home. People need to up their compliance with their personal protective measures.
Variants spreading in Toronto region of Canada.
B117 surging through Florida.
Increasing B117, with wave anticipated in many/most jurisdictions in the U.S..

On the good side, for some. (if early data, i.e., to day 28)
new #COVID19 vaccine efficacy study from Israel concludes that Pfizer/BioNTech's jab is up to 85% effective after the first dose after 15 days to day 28—and even 75% including asymptomatic cases
In that same line, there's multiple conversations that: given how effective some two-dose vaccines are after the first dose (for at least a period of time), should we delay giving the second dose in exchange for getting a first dose to more people.
  • It's thought that while that may not be the best protection for those already given the first dose, spreading a first dose around more may drop the spread significantly that it: saves more lives, reduces hospital load, etc..
  • In some places it seems to be leaning towards: highest level risk tiers will continue getting first & second dose, high then medium risk tiers will get a first dose; as that takes time, look at the results, and decide on:
    • going back with the second dose, or
    • vaccinate lower tiers with first dose before going back with a second dose.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by lucky420 » Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:59 am

Received 1st shot (Pfizer) yesterday. Second dose is scheduled for 3/12. Grateful to receive it but there’s also a weird guilt thing in my head about it too.

I’m too stupid emotional these days. And ffs it’s 3am my time right now...
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:09 am

lucky420 wrote:
Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:59 am
Received 1st shot (Pfizer) yesterday. Second dose is scheduled for 3/12. Grateful to receive it but there’s also a weird guilt thing in my head about it too.
I’m too stupid emotional these days. And ffs it’s 3am my time right now...
Get it when you can, guilt free. While it provides meaningful benefit for you, the real benefit is - significantly reducing the spread for everyone. As more people have a vaccine, your chance of getting exposed goes down, as does everyone's. Finally you get to join the small but growing part of the herd that is low spreading, even though you may still get it. Still need to protect oneself against it (latest believed in the order of 75% efficacy), and against variants. I suspect you understand that it's not a free card to go anywhere do anything.

Emotional isn't unexpected. This has been, and is, a long haul.

In other news, I believe somewhere on here I mentioned a family of four where the mom was going for cancer treatments and was told that she had Covid-19. All four got it. Very mild symptoms. All four have recovered.
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by lucky420 » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:17 pm

Thank you ^^

Yes, I’ll continue to protect myself after the vax

:coffee:
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by ygmir » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:47 pm

side question, but I'm betting someone here knows:
Are there numbers of actual effectiveness, compared to initial claims, for the various vaccines?
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:52 pm

ygmir wrote:
Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:47 pm
side question, but I'm betting someone here knows:
Are there numbers of actual effectiveness, compared to initial claims, for the various vaccines?
Available numbers are all early numbers, and changing numbers.
For example, from a few posts above, out earlier this week
new #COVID19 vaccine efficacy study from Israel concludes that Pfizer/BioNTech's jab is up to 85% effective after the first dose after 15 days to day 28—and even 75% including asymptomatic cases
Back on Feb 9th
Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:27 am
Study in South Africa of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed:
  • 22% efficacy overall against mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (includes all SARS-CoV-2 strains)
  • 10% efficacy for cases known to be B1351
Early in the study — before B.1.351 emerged — the vaccine appeared over 70 percent effective at preventing mild-to-moderate cases of COVID-19.
Study size of 2,000, half placebo, is unpublished and not peer-reviewed. [...]
South Africa has halted its rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
“Put very simply, we don’t want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated a million people or two million people with a vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease,” Salim Abdool Karim, the co-chair of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19, said in a press conference Monday.
If I remember correctly, from newer numbers, efficacy was in the order of 50 %. (not sure on that)

So numbers are early, and fluid, and vary on vaccine and location, and likely there's a different mix of variants. Over time, as more numbers are gathered, we'd expect more reliable numbers due to increased sample size. But with variant % of infections growing, the efficacy numbers will likely be changing due to a different mix of variants. So we also need to see the genome tests done, so efficacy is properly known by 'original' vs. variant.

But that's difficult, as when looking back at samples for a particular variant,
Canoe wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:51 pm
[...]
Because of poor genomic surveillance in the US, it took a while to realize it’s becoming a problem and growing across the US.
Seven new converging variants with same 677 mutations found independently by experts across the U.S..
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/heal ... ution.html
[...]
And California found a new one.

Generally, the practical efficacy is somewhat lower across the board, but apart from what appear to be either outlier studies - or outlier locations and hopefully not an indication of things to come - still very worthwhile for meaningfully or significantly reducing the spread - depending on enough people getting a vaccine. Also, the more who get vaccinated and the number of new infections reduce, that's also reducing the opportunities to mutate.

The other general result seems to be that all are very effective at lowering severity, such that deaths are significantly lowered (appears near eliminated some places). So far. Variants growing.

Then there's
Canoe wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:51 pm
Variant B117 is now a Variant Of Concern (VOC)
  • With more data and more study, from the U.K., new from scientists on NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group), "it is likely that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation and death compared to infection with non-VOC viruse."
    - "It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low."
    VOC B117 may be 30-70% more severe/deadly than old strains.
    [...]
Plus variants infecting a higher number of woman and children than was seen in prior 'waves'. Consequences unknown.

Results are very much early, and earlier...
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by ygmir » Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:22 am

thanks Canoe. I knew you or someone would have the info, and appreciate your synopsis on it.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Token » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:16 am

Just to be extra pedantic here ...

Efficacy is a property of the vaccine itself. It doesn’t change over time.

Effectiveness is a property of the population. It is highly variable. - did you get the second shot? Did the nurse use a thicker needle so you got more vaccine? Did FedEx accidentally let a batch thaw and refreeze? I.e behavior and environment are also variable in effectiveness.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:44 am

Token wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:16 am
...
Efficacy is a property of the vaccine itself. It doesn’t change over time.
Effectiveness is a property of the population. It is highly variable. ...
The reports I'm reading state it as "practical efficacy", in the field, results actually obtained, compared to the efficacy published by the maker, the "stated" efficacy, which they seem to treat as or outright call it a "claimed efficacy", as though the trial(s) that determine the vaccine efficacy can be or is in question. Is this normal, a lack of 'politeness'/normal-protocol in referring to the stated efficacy, a result of 'rushed' or overlapped trials, or _____?
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:29 pm

Canoe wrote:
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:52 pm
ygmir wrote:
Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:47 pm
Are there numbers of actual effectiveness, compared to initial claims, for the various vaccines?
Available numbers are all early numbers, and changing numbers. ... out earlier this week.
new #COVID19 vaccine efficacy study from Israel concludes that Pfizer/BioNTech's jab is up to 85% effective after the first dose after 15 days to day 28—and even 75% including asymptomatic cases
[...]
The other general result seems to be that all are very effective at lowering severity, such that deaths are significantly lowered (appears near eliminated some places). So far. Variants growing.
[...]
VOC B117 may be 30-70% more severe/deadly than old strains.
[...]
newer numbers, released Feb 20 & 21, 2021
  • "The vaccine (~edit: Pfizer-BioNTech), which was rolled out in a national immunization program that began Dec. 20, was 89.4% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed infections, according to a copy of a draft publication that was posted on Twitter and confirmed by a person familiar with the work. The companies and Israel’s Health Ministry worked together on the preliminary observational analysis, which has not yet been peer-reviewed".
  • "Separately, Israeli authorities on Saturday said the Pfizer-BioNTech shot was 99% effective at preventing deaths from the virus."
  • "In Israel, nearly half the population has at least 1 shot of vaccine. And 4 out of 5 infections during the study period in Israel were the B117 variant from the UK. So it’s pretty good for B117 too."
Note: It appears that the 89.4% at preventing infections and 99% effective at preventing deaths, were both determined during the study period where 4 out of 5 infections were B117.
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Sun Feb 21, 2021 4:02 pm

With B117 reported infecting men & women equally, infecting children in unprecedented numbers (with their parents becoming infected), and surging in Florida & anticipated to soon be dominant there, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was caught misleading the public about school infections...

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/stat ... 3870143489

More reports from multiple jurisdictions, that if they have schools open, they are opening only in the morning; children sent home before lunch, so they are masked their entire time at school to reduce spread. No super-spreading activities, like sitting with masks off to eat lunch.

Various other places show their decisions regarding schools are ignoring or pretending or have missed the warning about aerosol transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Some have been so badly hit they couldn't ignore it anymore and closed schools.
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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:17 pm

From U.K.
article includes, cherry picked:
Three studies came to similarly positive conclusions about the protection offered by the vaccines – one in Scotland and two in England – although they were set up to look at the effects in different groups of people.
  • In England, the Siren study in healthcare workers under 65 found that one dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine reduced the risk of catching the virus by 70% – and 85% after the second dose. The healthcare workers were all tested for the virus every two weeks, so the study picked up asymptomatic infections as well as those who had symptoms.
  • results of routine testing in the over-80s,...That found that 3 weeks after the first dose, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was 57% effective against symptomatic illness, whether mild or more severe.
    Although not many people have had a second dose, the evidence suggested efficacy rose to 85% in those who did.
  • “On top of the reduction in symptomatic infection, vaccine protection against more severe disease from a single dose is even higher – at least 75%,” said Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE, at a briefing.
  • She said these results justified the government’s policy of giving a first dose to millions of people and delaying the second dose for up to 12 weeks later.
  • By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines had reduced the risk of hospital admissions from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94% respectively, according to a study by Scottish universities and Public Health Scotland.
  • Among people aged 80 and over, vaccination was associated with an 81% reduction in hospital admission risk in the fourth week, when the results for both vaccines were combined.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-evidence
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:10 pm

Covid-19 Pandemic.
Variant ~= pandemic within a pandemic.
Pandemic like a Flood, or a Fire.
  • When there's a fire, we put it out all the way.
  • You don't leave a few rooms in a house on fire and say you need to get back into the house and balance living with the fire.
  • We put the fire out, and we never ever tolerate it spreading to other buildings.
https://twitter.com/thelittlegreen6/sta ... 6905706502
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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:16 pm

Make your fan work really well, for filtering Covid-19 virus or wildfire smoke particles.

Cube of furnace filters on fan intake.
https://www.texairfilters.com/a-variati ... r-cleaner/
Shroud on fan exhaust.
https://www.texairfilters.com/how-to-im ... r-cleaner/
  • Lowered speed through filter for increased dwell time, increased filtration.
  • Minimized resistance, for a low load on fan, even when using high MERV filters.
  • Shroud increases efficiency, and seriously reduces unfiltered air sneaking in the exhaust and getting distributed with the filtered air.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:33 pm

.
Remember the variant discovered in California?
Canoe wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:45 pm
Scientists in California searching for the fast-spreading British variant, found a California variant that is gaining track.
CAL.20C, a.k.a. B1429.
[*]Is not believed to be more fatal.
[*]Is believed to be more contagious. Rising in multiple counties in California. May surge.
UPDATE— the California homegrown variant B1427/B1429 (20C/L452R), has grown from 20-30% in Jan to now over 50% of new cases in California.
  • spreads FASTER
    - "those who were infected with the California strain had viral loads in the nasopharynx that were twice as high."
    - "19% to 24% more transmissible. But in some circumstances, its advantage was much greater: In one nursing home outbreak, B.1.427/B.1.429 spread at a rate that was six times higher
  • evades antibodies from #COVID19 vaccines or prior infection
    - moderately but significantly more evasive than other variants
  • causes more severe illness
  • Likely to become a Variant of Concern (VOC).
With the limited genome testing in the U.S. in 2020 and its late discovery, it had already spread and has shown up in 45 states to date, and in several other countries, including: Australia, Denmark, Mexico & Taiwan.

A B1427/B1429 surge is expected in addition to the B117 variant surge.

So we have three pandemics, original, B117 and B1427/B1429. The original is getting pushed out. The new are competing to infect people. Too early to know, but some are suggesting the surge in California could be in May/June.

Good news. So far, most vaccines appear to still be effective with variants. As numbers are early, many companies are developing boosters for #B1351 and others just in case.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:02 pm

Anyone who says healthy kids don’t die from influenza is willfully ignorant and awful. Also, my son almost died from influenza when he was 2 and he likely caught it from a healthy kid or adult with the flu. So yeah, fuck right off.
Active #COVID19 cases surged faster in teachers & students than Quebec public.
TEACHERS & STUDENTS Covid in province of Quebec, Canada
  • Pre-holidays, school cases surged faster than general population.
  • Schools closed for holidays—cases plummet
  • Winter break over—school cases rose again.
In the whole province, the worst hit are children under 10 years old, making up 17 % of cases. Nearly double that of the next closest group making up 10 % of cases, also school age, 10 to 19 years.
Children under 10 were exempt from the province-wide mask mandate.
(Next lower was 30-39, at 9.6 %)
(The lowest were 90+ 5.3 %)
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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BBadger
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by BBadger » Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:41 pm

Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:02 pm
Anyone who says healthy kids don’t die from influenza is willfully ignorant and awful. Also, my son almost died from influenza when he was 2 and he likely caught it from a healthy kid or adult with the flu. So yeah, fuck right off.
Active #COVID19 cases surged faster in teachers & students than Quebec public.
TEACHERS & STUDENTS Covid in province of Quebec, Canada
  • Pre-holidays, school cases surged faster than general population.
  • Schools closed for holidays—cases plummet
  • Winter break over—school cases rose again.
In the whole province, the worst hit are children under 10 years old, making up 17 % of cases. Nearly double that of the next closest group making up 10 % of cases, also school age, 10 to 19 years.
Children under 10 were exempt from the province-wide mask mandate.
(Next lower was 30-39, at 9.6 %)
(The lowest were 90+ 5.3 %)
Hey do you have the cites on those figures? I'd like to see and pass them on.
"The essence of tyranny is not iron law. It is capricious law." -- Christopher Hitchens

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Token » Wed Feb 24, 2021 5:11 pm

Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:33 pm
...

Good news. So far, most vaccines appear to still be effective with variants. As numbers are early, many companies are developing boosters for #B1351 and others just in case.
So, what you’re saying ... sometime in August ... maybe ... when it’s my turn to get a vaccine ... it will be obsolete? Or is it gonna be the vaccine for COVID-21?

;)

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