CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

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some seeing eye
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by some seeing eye » Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:45 pm

From faceboo

Death Guild Thunderdome will not be attending Burning Man at Black Rock City this year.

After very little deliberation and a lot of listing of reasons, Death Guild Thunderdome has made the rather easy decision to not attend Burning Man at BRC this year. At this writing, we do not know whether Burning Man plans to hold the event in Black Rock City this year. We wanted to make this crew statement prior to, and not as a reaction to, any decision/announcement from Burning Man Project.

Is it easy for us to not see each other?
No.

Is it easy for us to lose a huge sense of purpose, and opportunities for creation, collaboration, production, performance, management, building, getting shitfaced and being a burden on our campmates, and whatever else it is that makes Burning Man at BRC compelling for us?

FUCK NO.

We love each other. We want to see each other. Without Burning Man at BRC, in the before-times, we vacationed together. We have, over the last year, had Zoom cocktail hours together. Had distanced visits. Mailed each other SO MANY things. So of course we want to go to Burning Man at BRC (yes, I’m going to keep saying this because Burning Man is not just the event).

But, because we love each other, the decision to not attend was easy.

Because we have a lot of scientists and smart people in camp, there was not any hesitation.

We care - a lot - about each other, other people, and our impact on the world. Because we have a lot of very thoughtful people in camp, despite the immediate desire to Do That Thing We Do and to see each other, it is not a complicated choice to say, “No, we will not do the thing.”

We miss you. We miss shenanigans, love, dust, conflict resolution, being your dark beating heart of the playa. But, because we miss you, and want to see you again, we will not be participating. The nature of our show means that we will need herd immunity before we can safely and ethically run it again. But it’s not just that.
We broke our reasoning into four main areas:

Ethics
Impact
Safety (it’s the most important but… third)
Logistics
Ethics

Risking lives and participating in a non-essential event that is already lacking in diversity during a time when people of color are being disproportionately impacted by a global health crisis is unacceptable to us.We recognize that Burning Man Project is taking steps to address its historical diversity issues, but that doesn’t solve the world’s issues relative to employment privilege and health insurance privilege, particularly during a pandemic. As a result Burning Man at BRC 2021, if it happens, risks being the whitest, richest event ever, with a bonus risk of being potentially deadly, and we can’t, in good conscience, participate. We see disparity issues within our own camp and will not create a situation within camp where participation is limited to those who have had the privilege of being minimally impacted by the pandemic. Then there is location privilege - travel restrictions will not be lifted in time for people outside the U.S. to plan. Finally, there is health privilege. Because we will not have reached herd immunity by August, people who are, for health reasons, unable to be vaccinated, will not be able to attend. So the event as a result becomes more ableist.

Also, we do not want to be the next Sturgis.

Impact
Doing an event in 2021 will further the downward spiral of issues Cultural Direction Setting was trying to address, and cause those issues to be further compounded in subsequent years. Burning Man at BRC is a massive, high-profile event. Other event organizers will be encouraged to throw their own events without doing the research that Burning Man Project has done and will continue to do.
We are concerned about the impact of commuting through indigenous land. As a result, we will be donating to a few organizations benefiting local tribes, and encourage readers to do the same. Information on how to do this is here (thank you to the DGTD crew for putting this document together): https://docs.google.com/.../12li4R8UzHS ... rG.../edit...

Health and Safety (not really third)
We do not believe, even with the best information, organization, and intention, that it is possible to safely attend Burning Man in 2021. This is the most important one. When we polled the crew about the possibility of attending Burning Man at BRC 2021, the biggest “what would it take to get me to attend” response was “everyone is vaccinated and there is proof,” followed closely by “herd immunity”. We cannot safely run Thunderdome until there is herd immunity. There is/are people breathing heavily on each other, tightly packed bodies, and fluid exchange (nope, still not OrgyDome (much respect, we love your work)). There is so much that is currently unknown. We aren’t sure (there have been small studies) whether people who have had the vaccine can still transmit. We don’t know how long the vaccine lasts. Even then, the Burning Man community has anti-science members who may not take the vaccine though they are physically able to do so. We don’t believe it’s reasonable to ask volunteers to check for vaccine status. Per the 2019 BRC Census, 47% of the US-based Black Rock City population is based in California, with 83% of the overall Black Rock City population (who completed the census) from the U.S. So that’s about 39% overall from CA. The California vaccine rollout has been abysmally slow and mismanaged (second from the worst in the country as of this writing), and most of our membership is located in California. Even if most people are vaccinated, we will certainly not have reached herd immunity by then. We will not ask our crew, who already put their bodies on the line being kicked, bled on, spat on, have drinks poured on, have items dropped on from 20’, touch harnesses that touch many, many sets of underwear, etc., etc., etc. to put themselves at even greater physical risk.

Death. We know it’s in our name. We’re not interested in causing it. Our lawyers just aren’t that good and we're broke.

(plea for funding edited out)

Logistics
There are too many unknowns to reasonably plan for an event in 2021. While logistics fell far below safety, ethics, and impact in terms of our concerns, you can take the event away from the project manager, but you can’t take the project manager away from (thinking about) the event. Even if most people are vaccinated by early August 2021, we won’t have time to plan and will not have anything built before then, as we will not be able to safely gather for builds. How will vaccinations be determined? Will already-taxed volunteer gate staff also be tasked with policing vaccine status? Any proof of vaccine will definitely be faked and lied about. Because of current travel restrictions, people from other countries will not be able to plan. We have multiple members in different countries who would need to start planning immediately. What we see are a lot of moving targets. If this were a piece of software, we wouldn’t commit to a ship date prior to 2023, TBH. But that’s because shareholders. We think we can do this in 2022, but not before.

What now?

We had our first 2021 meeting last week.

We’re taking the opportunity to talk about our show. To ideate about new offerings in the form of performance, our show, our fights, our set, our characters, narrative, vehicles, props, and rituals. We haven’t had anyone bring up a pants cannon in a meeting for years. Until this year. We haven’t talked about changing up our esplanade frontage in a long time. We haven’t had the luxury to ideate this freely and without constraint since we started. And we are RUNNING with it. DGTD fire troupe v.3.0? MAYBE. A two-story bar? We’ll see. More ritual around the dome ceremonies? Most definitely. We are not idle. We don’t know how to be. And we will not let this unique moment of stillness turn into inaction.

We do want the organization to survive. We have invested deeply in Burning Man and its culture for decades. It is why we feel strongly about not attending this year, so that we can, when the time is right, not be missing anyone when it’s time to come back together. If the cost of survival of the event is, at best, the inability of the most marginalized among us to participate and, at worst, death, the price is too high. The world is watching, and Death is listening.

See you in 2022 (even if we have to start from scratch),
Death Guild Thunderdome 2021 - We Can Ruin It Next Year

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Simon of the Playa » Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:08 am

wtf man?

why are you posting in the thread ABOUT the topic in the thread?

get with the program.





HOW 'BOUT THEM METS?

i like soup.

also, lemme tell you about the time i went to my first rodeo.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Simon of the Playa » Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:45 am

ANAL SWABS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE PRICE OF THE PARKING PASS!!!
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Token » Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:43 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:45 am
ANAL SWABS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE PRICE OF THE PARKING PASS!!!
Shouldn’t that be in the 2021 Theme thread?

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by some seeing eye » Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:24 pm

Token wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:43 am
Simon of the Playa wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:45 am
ANAL SWABS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE PRICE OF THE PARKING PASS!!!
Shouldn’t that be in the 2021 Theme thread?
2021 Theme Announced: "all your biome are belong to us"

The BORG could make a lot of money selling the information collected in the bodily fluids from participants under their shrink wrap user agreement. How much are the DNA of Grimes and Elon worth?

They should probably be analyzing the porto stream too. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... lance.html

While we focus on the spread of COVID from the lungs, the ACE2 protein the virus targets is also found in the gastrointestinal tract. So with the excellent BRC hygiene (not), portos are a spreading vector.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Simon of the Playa » Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:07 pm

"spreading vector" sounds like sci-fi porno.


or a theme.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by The Rod » Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:04 am

Image

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:44 am

Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:28 pm
SARS-CoV-2 B117 Variant, seems it may make 2021 yell Fuck Yer Year!
This is NOT good.
B117 growing in numbers.
...
  • 7 out of 10 studies (of numbers so far) suggests B117 has a 30% increased mortality risk.
  • "We need to switch to KN95, KF94, or European FFP2 masks ASAP. The new B117 is just too contagious. Cloth isn’t enough anymore folks."
    - FFP2 now required on public transit in various European countries.
    - Some area require it in stores too.
    - Double masking of lower grades improves filtration, but not as good.
  • British researchers have discovered that the already more contagious B117 has further acquired the other troublesome E484K mutation seen in South African B1351 & Brazilian P1 variants. E484k is blamed for partial vaccine-evasion.
    Believe multiple B117 samples acquired E484K independently of each other (not just one single origin). This suggests convergent evolution taking place—where it evolves to acquire E484K separately—which indicates it is key.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ngland.pdf
  • Another researcher thinks E484k, to some extent, has a stabilizing effect on the 501Y - structurally it appears to me together the 2 mutations "grip" onto Ace2 better since they are at the end of a loop.
  • “We now know that mutations (K417N & E484K) have allowed SARSCoV2 to become resistant to antibody neutralization.”
    - B1351 with E484K shows a 10x reduction of neutralization (“neutralization” = stopping the virus) by various antibodies
    - “Blood samples from 1/2 tested showed all neutralizing activity was lost.” “complete immune escape”
    - 90% of the people tested showed reduced immunity!
    - The B1351 variant with E484K mutation has serious potential for reinfection.
  • Various companies have stated they're working on booster shots for new variants.
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by FlyingMonkey » Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:26 am

The Rod wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:11 pm
OK BOOMERS
Ouch.

I love you guys. Well.....some of you.
In your wildest dreams you can not imagine the marvelous SURPRISES that await YOU.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by FlyingMonkey » Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:33 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:
Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:08 am
wtf man?

why are you posting in the thread ABOUT the topic in the thread?

get with the program.





HOW 'BOUT THEM METS?

i like soup.

also, lemme tell you about the time i went to my first rodeo.
Ok Death Guild, I don't often get mad but look at what you have done.............You made Simon use words.

Inexcusable!
In your wildest dreams you can not imagine the marvelous SURPRISES that await YOU.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by FlyingMonkey » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:04 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:45 am
ANAL SWABS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE PRICE OF THE PARKING PASS!!!
Nice to see the BORG take strides to reduce the wealth privilege.

Sure it may not seem like much but some people save all year, eat ramen for every meal, steal from their kids college fund and still can't afford to get their anus swabbed.
In your wildest dreams you can not imagine the marvelous SURPRISES that await YOU.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Simon of the Playa » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:14 am

pro tip: Ask for "Mint".


the "cinnamon" lingers for days.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by some seeing eye » Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:27 am

Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:44 am
Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:28 pm
SARS-CoV-2 B117 Variant, seems it may make 2021 yell Fuck Yer Year!
This is NOT good.
B117 growing in numbers.
...
  • 7 out of 10 studies (of numbers so far) suggests B117 has a 30% increased mortality risk.
  • "We need to switch to KN95, KF94, or European FFP2 masks ASAP. The new B117 is just too contagious. Cloth isn’t enough anymore folks."
    - FFP2 now required on public transit in various European countries.
    - Some area require it in stores too.
    - Double masking of lower grades improves filtration, but not as good.
  • British researchers have discovered that the already more contagious B117 has further acquired the other troublesome E484K mutation seen in South African B1351 & Brazilian P1 variants. E484k is blamed for partial vaccine-evasion.
    Believe multiple B117 samples acquired E484K independently of each other (not just one single origin). This suggests convergent evolution taking place—where it evolves to acquire E484K separately—which indicates it is key.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ngland.pdf
  • Another researcher thinks E484k, to some extent, has a stabilizing effect on the 501Y - structurally it appears to me together the 2 mutations "grip" onto Ace2 better since they are at the end of a loop.
  • “We now know that mutations (K417N & E484K) have allowed SARSCoV2 to become resistant to antibody neutralization.”
    - B1351 with E484K shows a 10x reduction of neutralization (“neutralization” = stopping the virus) by various antibodies
    - “Blood samples from 1/2 tested showed all neutralizing activity was lost.” “complete immune escape”
    - 90% of the people tested showed reduced immunity!
    - The B1351 variant with E484K mutation has serious potential for reinfection.
  • Various companies have stated they're working on booster shots for new variants.
Viruses are a selfish gene. They need a host to reproduce. Humans have done a pretty good job eliminating smallpox and polio by vaccination.

All the vaccination denial and refusal, which was not discouraged by Trump, means that the virus will circulate in the human viral reservoir of the unvaccinated, mutating in each cycle until a more infectious variant emerges. COVID has also been shown to survive in a reservoir of animals from which it can reemerge to infect humans too.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:13 pm

some seeing eye wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:27 am
COVID has also been shown to survive in a reservoir of animals from which it can reemerge to infect humans too.
SARS-CoV-2 ability to quickly infect ACE2 receptor cells by quickly destroying the ACE2 cell's internal immune function, comes from a specific identified string within the SARS-CoV-2 genome.
  • That same string (not SARS-COV-2) was found in the genome of another previously unknown covid virus that was found in some Pangolin samples.
    (Many Pangolins (and other animals, including bats) were sampled following the Covid-19 outbreak, turning up a number of known and previously unknown covid viruses.)
  • That string, from an unknown virus, is believed to have joined an unknown covid virus in a pangolin through Recombination, forming that new covid virus or strain.
    (Recombination: where fragments of dissolved/ing viruses can recombine with a reproducing virus, combining/inserting fragments of genes from two or more viruses or strains into a new viral strain. I think I got that right...)
  • That new Pangolin covid virus was then present in an unknown animal (which may have been a Pangolin), and that string ended up Recombining with another unknown covid virus or viruses, forming SARS-CoV-2.
  • From that unknown animal or after transfer into another animal, the original zoonotic transfer to humans occurred.
Or so the genome showed. I stopped following the genome origins tracing ~May 2020, so this may have been updated since then.

p.s.
One treatment possibility that was being explored was searching for something benign (or more benign than Covid-19) that would have a good or greater affinity for ACE2 receptors, thereby blocking SARS-CoV-2 from infecting them. If such could be found or developed, it was thought it may have potential including: prevent infection from occurring, reduce or prevent infection after known exposure, reduce the growth of the disease after detection (limiting severe and fatal cases, less ventilator and ICU load, faster recovery, the recovered have less long term or permanent damage).

p.s.s.
It's scary how quickly the new variants are taking over as the dominant occurrence of new and active cases.
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by some seeing eye » Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:03 pm

I'm going to place my bet on bats over pangolins. We had the "bird flu" and "pig flu" with their named reservoirs. According to the CDC, COVID-19 has been found in cats, dogs, ferrets, hamsters, mink, and tree shrews. But the human reservoir travels globally.

It's natural that more aggressive spread variants would emerge.
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:05 pm

some seeing eye wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:03 pm
I'm going to place my bet on bats over pangolins. ...
You're not alone.
The genomes show that the string in question had its Recombining in a pangolin, and that new covid strain spread through a number of pangolins. Then, in an "unknown animal"...
> That new Pangolin covid virus was then present in an unknown animal (which may have been a Pangolin), and that string ended up Recombining with another unknown covid virus or viruses, forming SARS-CoV-2.

It is suspected that the "unknown animal (which may have been a Pangolin)", in which SARS-CoV-2 formed by Recombination, is a bat. There was no genome to prove this.

And it was also considered most likely that the original zoonotic transfer came from a bat, or first back to a pangolin then to people. But due to the variety of animals at the Wuhan wet market (I forget its name), there are a number of potential suspects. Again, no genome to prove this.

(again, my knowledge of this is old, ~May 2020)

The officials visiting China right now to look at origins could turn up some interesting data. But that will be difficult to get due to the Not-From-China narrative underway there for some time.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:41 pm

Another example of Covid-19 strikes...
Verónica García Fuentes, 36, from the state of Tachira in Venezuela, fell ill with a fever in mid-December. She took a PCR test which came back positive and isolated herself at home, but she told her husband and children she had a bad case of the flu. According to the Venezuelan newspaper La Nación, Fuentes may have kept her COVID-19 diagnosis a secret out of fear.
- At the end of December, she told her husband José Antonio, 33, she had coronavirus, as he was on his way to a family party, to stop him from mixing with other relatives.
- In January, Fuentes developed pneumonia. Her husband and three children, one aged 17 and twins aged four, all tested negative in a rapid test.
- Two weeks later, Fuentes' condition deteriorated and she was admitted to hospital. The rest of her family then tested positive for COVID-19, but appeared to be asymptomatic.
- Days later, her husband was admitted to hospital with severe symptoms and a week later, both died.
- The couple's three children had also passed away by the end of January.

https://www.newsweek.com/family-dies-wo ... st-1566735
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:10 pm

Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:13 pm
... (Recombination: where fragments of dissolved/ing viruses can recombine with a reproducing virus, combining/inserting fragments of genes from two or more viruses or strains into a new viral strain. I think I got that right...) ...
Well this is timely.
An article on Recombination how it relates to SARS-CoV-2.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/heal ... oUQ4a98Vq7
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:15 am

B1351 variant from South Africa is spreading in Europe.
  • Outbreak in Austria's Tyrol.
    - Germany and its state of Bavaria are both considering closing their border with Tyrol.
    - Tyrol’s provincial leader only proposed very very minor public health mitigation and refused to accept Austria
    ministry of health’s COVID19 infection numbers. Tyrol is Austria's Florida.

    - Tyrol’s hotel lobbying organization has threatened to REOPEN ALL HOTELS if Austria’s Ministry of Health closes the border to Tyrol.
    - And that's with a new outbreak in Tyrolean Ischgl, this time with variant B1351, and after an independent commission, chaired by the former vice-president of the Austrian supreme court, into the March 2020 Ischgl Covid-19 outbreak found that Austrian national and local authorities made “momentous miscalculations” by first hesitating and then rushing to evacuate the Tyrolean Ischgl village alpine ski resort, which has been described as the “ground zero” of the coronavirus first wave in Europe, as that seeded the rest of Europe. The state prosecutor in Innsbruck is meanwhile investigating four main suspects for negligence, including Ischgl’s mayor, for “deliberate or negligent endangerment of people through transferable diseases”.
    - Latest (a few hours ago) from Austria shows that B1351 is not only in their state of Tyrol, but has spread to their states of Styria and Lower Austria.
    - 30% of new cases in the greater Munich area in Germany are variants.
  • Experts expect the course of the disease from B1351 to be more severe and its resilience to vaccinations should be higher.
  • Study shows B1351 infection rates for new and prior Covid-19 patients near equal. No meaningful anti-body protection for B1351. B1351 will cause re-infections.
  • Vaccines that showed a high efficacy in trials are now showing a lower efficacy in practice. This is believed to be due to the spread of variants.
    - Novavax vaccine has only 50% efficacy for B1351.
    - Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has only 22% efficacy for B1351.
If the development of boosters for the variants are not quickly forthcoming, and ongoing as new variants are discovered, Covid-19 could become even more of a world-changing event than it already is.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:27 am

Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:15 am
- Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has only 22% efficacy for B1351.
Correction
Study in South Africa of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed:
  • 22% efficacy overall against mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (includes all SARS-CoV-2 strains)
  • 10% efficacy for cases known to be B1351
Early in the study — before B.1.351 emerged — the vaccine appeared over 70 percent effective at preventing mild-to-moderate cases of COVID-19.
Study size of 2,000, half placebo, is unpublished and not peer-reviewed.
But the small study has so many limitations and caveats, experts caution that drawing any conclusions from it is difficult. ... The trial was just too small to produce statistically solid results.
Note that it is reported that South Africa has halted its rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
“Put very simply, we don’t want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated a million people or two million people with a vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease,” Salim Abdool Karim, the co-chair of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19, said in a press conference Monday.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:45 pm

.
Scientists in California searching for the fast-spreading British variant, found a California variant that is gaining track.
CAL.20C, a.k.a. B1429.
  • Is not believed to be more fatal.
  • Is believed to be more contagious. Rising in multiple counties in California. May surge.
  • Expected to be detected in other states. "have so far found it in Arizona, Connecticut, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming, & DC. It’s not clear yet how common it is outside California.”
  • Unknown if spread is due to biological advantage (over other strains) or if due to super spreader events, or both.
  • Contains mutation L452R.
    Not as "bad" as E484K, but L452R yielded at least 4-fold decrease in sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies.
    https://doi.org/10.1038/s41392-020-00302-8
  • More calls for "Elimination not Mitigation: viruses can't mutate if they can't replicate!"
  • First-hand reports out of England, which is under increased lockdowns for a huge outbreak, that over 90% of people seen on the street are maintaining distances but are not wearing masks of any type.
  • Following CDC report https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... 007e1_w%20
    CDC urges either double-masking (double cloth, or surgical under cloth) or use surgical mask with tight fit, to better protect against threat of new and more contagious variants of the coronavirus.
    CDC wrote:
    Make sure your mask fits snugly against your face.


    DETAILS MATTER - CDC Mask Guidance: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... masks.html
More study needed.
California had produced a variant of its own.
That mutant, which belongs to a lineage known as CAL.20C, seemed to have popped up in July but lay low till November. Then it began to quickly spread.
CAL.20C accounted for more than half of the virus genome samples collected in Los Angeles laboratories on Jan. 13, according to a new study that has not yet been published.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/19 ... y-suggests
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:03 pm

.
Simple tie & fold gets Surgical Mask fitting much more snug to face.
.
https://youtu.be/2TTg53aAP8Q?t=51
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:03 am

Covid-19 variant B117
Canoe wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:44 am
Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:28 pm
SARS-CoV-2 B117 Variant, seems it may make 2021 yell Fuck Yer Year!
This is NOT good.
B117 growing in numbers.
[...]
  • [...]
  • British researchers have discovered that the already more contagious B117 has further acquired the other troublesome E484K mutation seen in South African B1351 & Brazilian P1 variants. E484k is blamed for partial vaccine-evasion.
    - B1351 with E484K shows a 10x reduction of neutralization (“neutralization” = stopping the virus) by various antibodies
    - “Blood samples from 1/2 tested showed all neutralizing activity was lost.” “complete immune escape”
    - 90% of the people tested showed reduced immunity!
    - The B1351 variant with E484K mutation has serious potential for reinfection.
    [...]
  • new data shows the more contagious B117 variant is growing so quickly in Florida—now almost 10% of all COVID19 case. California only ~2 weeks behind. Surge of B117 may yield April wave if vaccine rollout slow.
    https://public.tableau.com/profile/heli ... FDashboard
  • Florida on pace for early March when B117 passes >50% & dominant. Study by K_G_Andersen
    put it at ~March 9th, with ~9 day doubling time.
    B117 is 38-49% more transmissible in Florida, but 40-60% more transmissible according to UK data.
  • Nationwide, doubling time is ~10 days and with an estimated data it becomes >50% dominant around March 23rd.
    Preprint https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:27 am

Epidemiologist's notes on masks following CDC report
  • Source Control (masks preventing infected persons from exposing others by blocking exhalation of virus-containing droplets into the air) is important because at least 50% or more of transmissions are from presymptomatic & asymptomatic COVID19 cases.
  • glaring finding that one sloppy mask worn by the receiver has little protection
  • double masking better than poor unfitted surgical mask
  • if double masked or carefully fitted & sealed, receiver-only-masking does work!!!
  • We know that universal masking works,” said John T. Brooks, medical officer for CDC’s covid-19 response. “And now these variants are circulating … whatever we can do to improve the fit of a mask to make it work better, the faster we can end this pandemic.”
  • Two effective methods (from report):
    1. One is wearing a cloth mask over a surgical mask.
    2. The second is improving the fit of a single surgical mask by knotting the ear loops and tucking in the sides close to the face to prevent air from leaking out around the edges and to form a closer fit.”
      (Simple tie & fold gets Surgical Mask fitting much more snug to face https://youtu.be/2TTg53aAP8Q?t=51)
  • Both of those methods reduced exposure to potentially infectious aerosols by more than 95 percent in a laboratory experiment using dummies, the report said.
  • the report said
    • A three-ply surgical mask blocked 42 percent of particles from a simulated cough, and
    • a three-ply cloth mask blocked 44 percent.
    • But a cloth mask covering a medical mask blocked 92 percent of the particles
  • In a second experiment using dummies:
    • When infected source was masked, it reduced exposure for unmasked bystanders:
      - if double masks, 82 %
      - if knotted&tucked medical mask, 62 %
    • When source was not wearing any masks:
      - a bystander wearing a double mask had exposure reduced by 83 %
      - a bystander wearing a knotted&tucked medical mask had exposure reduced by 64.5 %
    • But when both source & bystander wore either double masks or knotted&tucked medical masks, the bystander’s exposure was reduced by more than 95 percent!
Note: I think "double masks" refers to the cloth mask over surgical mask under the "two effective methods".
  • 'B117 is starting to surge. It is much much more transmissible and will cause another surge in March and April.'
  • Israel is seeing a sharp rise in <18 cases, as more than 50,000 children and teens have gotten COVID19 since the start of Jan., “This is something we did not witness in previous waves,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said. Some Israeli experts think it’s due to B117.
  • “Experts tell us that it will be only a matter of time until these mutations will become dominant,” Merkel said in a speech to parliament in Berlin. “We know that the danger of mutations can again wreck our successes.”
Burning Man time is just around the corner. Unless there's a miracle - and there's none on the horizon and we variants rapidly gaining & heading for prominence - a full blown .org 70K+ BRC in 2021 does not look feasible and does not look responsible.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by lucky420 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:18 pm

Listening to our Governor (NV) and the lifting of restrictions etc

Here’s a nutshell

Changes start Feb 15th bars and restaurants
Indoor at 35% capacity or 100 people whichever is less (was 25%)
Outdoor unlimited capacity
6 per table (was 4 per table)
No reservations required (reservations were required, no walk ins)

Gyms, churches, yoga studios, gaming floors, pool halls
Feb 15th: 35% capacity or 100 people
March 15th: 50% capacity or 250 people
May 1: Transfer mitigation to local authorities IF numbers are down and staying down

:coffee:
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:22 pm

lucky420 wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:18 pm
Listening to our Governor (NV) and the lifting of restrictions etc
[...]
o.k.
Our Funeral Home is Overwhelmed With Bodies
28 Jan 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpSgEQKVNE

[...]
> from 0:43

It took ten months for L.A. to reach 400,000 Covid cases. So yes, we had Covid deaths at my funeral home, but we weren't overwhelmed. But then came winter. Families travelling for Thanksgiving, disjointed government policy, weariness and a desire for this just to be over. And boom; in December alone, 400,000 cases in L.A.. <1 every eight seconds>
Humanitarian disaster. I cannot emphasis this (that?) strongly enough. It's like nothing I've ever seen.

You may be thinking, L.A. is America's second biggest city. If it's really all that bad we should be hearing all the celebs dying from Covid, right? That is the fundamental misunderstanding about Los Angeles.

If your vision of L.A. ticktock houses and paparazzi, that is not the L.A. I live in or the L.A. my funeral home serves. There are vast stretches of Los Angeles that are primarly homes to Latino and black people. Those communities are filled with front line workers, who live in densely situated multi-generational homes, many of which are low income. They can't not work! Or work form home! And they can't just live somewhere else. These are the people who are filling our funeral home.

To put a human face on this, there was a bus driver living in South L.A. who migrated from El Salvador. He lived with his mother and children. The family doesn't know how Covid infected their home, but the whole family has it.
  • Covid has put him on the brink of death and he doesn't have health care.
  • Calling an ambulance would just mean driving around in circles.
    - They have no where to go.
    - No hospital to take him to. <Headline: Southern California's ICU Capacity Is Now At 0%>
    - You hear the sirens all night long.
  • So he dies at home.
A police officer has to come sit with the body until a funeral home picks him up. But no funeral home has room. This is not a home funeral, by the way, the magic of a body in the living room, the family making an informed choice to care for their own dead. There is no magic, when you have no idea if you're going to be able to get anyone, no matter how much you pay them, to pickup this body.

So how did this happen. We know how this happened. But the question I think about all day very day, is where is the government? This has been going on for almost a year. This didn't catch you by surprise. What are you guys doing, huh?

The fact that the government feels no need to step in - at all - is so frustrating - especially since they killed a lot of these people. With their arbitrary policies, their lack of health care, their lack of financial help for the unemployed. And then you do absolutely nothing to help them or their families once they die. You don't provide any money to get them cremated or buried. You don't even provide refrigerated storage for their bodies, so their families at least know they're somewhere safe. Things like refrigerated trucks, communal burials, mobile crematoriums, those aren't the enemy, those are the solutions. My issue is, is that we don't have any of those.…

It's a mass causality disaster.
[...]
When you're frantically calling anyone to help you with your dead, large corporate funeral homes may be the only one who has the capacity to pickup your family member. And then the second they pick them up, you're on the hook for a bare minimum of $4,000 cremation. If you need a burial for religious or personal reasons, that's a year's salary.

I hate the idea of private business and donors stepping in where the government should be, especially in a mass disaster situation. But frankly, Amazon would be handling this better. At least they have trucks and workers. MacKenzie Bezos, hey, what's up. Bill Gates. Help. Help. Elon Musk: you wanted to build a submarine for those Thai cave divers. What you up to?

I'm not an expert on natural disasters and mass deaths, that should go without saying, but here's what I think should be happening.
There should be one phone number.
  • If a death has occurred from Covid or suspected Covid, the family can call the number and it goes to a Central Command, an abandoned We-Work or something with tumbleweeds rolling through the background.
  • To start, it's staffed by about thirty people: FEMA (or Federal Emergency Management (agency?), California National Guard, death care experts, drivers, phone operators.
  • The phone operator takes all the information from the family.
  • A driver picks up the body and brings it to a well managed location that is clean, bright, cold, well-labeled, so the family knows their dead are safe.
  • The Death Certificate is fast-tracked through the county, and
  • the family is told “We are so sorry this is happening. We will handle the practical and financial logistics of this cremation or burial.
This should have been the plan since the beginning of the pandemic. If the right person was given the power and, I don't know, a million dollars?, half a million dollars?, this could be up and running in several days. This sounds like 'I don't like the government'. No, I love big government, that supports and cares for all its citizens – especially its more vulnerable. I don't know how much more vulnerable you get than overflowing freezer trucks full of poor income corpses from L.A.'s least supported neighbourhoods.
[...]
This is about mass death.
[...]
The corpses don't lie. The shear staggering amount of corpses don't lie. We're not running cremations all day and night for our health, in fact it's bad for our health.
[...]
Everyone on my team, funeral directors, people at the corner's, doctors, nurses, the health department, everyone is working so hard. But none of us are disaster relief experts. Where are those people?

It's like that scene in a disaster move when the plane flies over and it doesn't see you, and for the first time you go “Oh shit! No one is coming!”
[...]
<One day later...> "State health officials have lifted the Stay At Home Order for all regions." "All regions effective immediately are no longer in the Stay At Home Order."

< end transcription
Just in time for B117, CAL.20C (a.k.a. B1429), et al.
Experts predict a wave starting at various times in March, depending on where in the U.S., through April. How long will this/these wave be.

Note: Since that video came out. Costs for low-income, but not handling the Mass Deaths Disaster.
In a joint press conference earlier this week, Senator Chuck Schumer and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announced that the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) will now reimburse low-income families for COVID-related funeral and burial costs.
https://twocents.lifehacker.com/how-fem ... 1846238544
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by Canoe » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:46 pm

lucky420 wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:18 pm
Listening to our Governor (NV) and the lifting of restrictions etc
[...]
p.s.
[...] a California variant that is gaining track.
CAL.20C, a.k.a. B1429.
[...]
- "have so far found it in Arizona, Connecticut, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming, & DC. It’s not clear yet how common it is outside California.”
- Unknown if spread is due to biological advantage (over other strains) or if due to super spreader events, or both.
- Contains mutation L452R. Not as "bad" as E484K, but L452R yielded at least 4-fold decrease in sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies.
[...]
> "4-fold decrease in sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies."
Read as, re-infection potential.
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

MutantGarage
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by MutantGarage » Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:18 pm

So, who's getting the shot?
and Who is Not?

I'd love to see a survey of Vaxxers vs Anti-Vaxxers


(FWIW, I just got Moderna'ed today)

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lucky420
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by lucky420 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:00 am

MutantGarage wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:18 pm
So, who's getting the shot?
and Who is Not?

I'd love to see a survey of Vaxxers vs Anti-Vaxxers


(FWIW, I just got Moderna'ed today)
Mine is scheduled for next Friday. I’m on the list due to my job. I’m glad to begetting it
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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lucky420
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Re: CoVid-19 and the 2021 Burning Man Event

Post by lucky420 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:05 am

Canoe wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:46 pm
lucky420 wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:18 pm
Listening to our Governor (NV) and the lifting of restrictions etc
[...]
p.s.
[...] a California variant that is gaining track.
CAL.20C, a.k.a. B1429.
[...]
- "have so far found it in Arizona, Connecticut, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wyoming, & DC. It’s not clear yet how common it is outside California.”
- Unknown if spread is due to biological advantage (over other strains) or if due to super spreader events, or both.
- Contains mutation L452R. Not as "bad" as E484K, but L452R yielded at least 4-fold decrease in sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies.
[...]
> "4-fold decrease in sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies."
Read as, re-infection potential.
Oh I’m just sharing what Nevada’s doing so far as in the sense that the burn happens or not. People on FB seem to think it’s all up to the bmorg...it’s not. Our Governor will say no to any large scale events if numbers don’t go down and it doesn’t look like he could even give bm a definitive answer until May. Would bm need to know yes or no from Nevada before May?
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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