ygmir wrote: ↑Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:47 pm
side question, but I'm betting someone here knows:
Are there numbers of actual effectiveness, compared to initial claims, for the various vaccines?
Available numbers are all early numbers, and changing numbers.
For example, from a few posts above, out earlier this week
new #COVID19 vaccine efficacy study from Israel concludes that Pfizer/BioNTech's jab is up to 85% effective after the first dose after 15 days to day 28—and even 75% including asymptomatic cases
Back on Feb 9th
Canoe wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:27 am
Study in South Africa of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed:
- 22% efficacy overall against mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (includes all SARS-CoV-2 strains)
- 10% efficacy for cases known to be B1351
Early in the study — before B.1.351 emerged — the vaccine appeared over 70 percent effective at preventing mild-to-moderate cases of COVID-19.
Study size of 2,000, half placebo, is unpublished and not peer-reviewed. [...]
South Africa has halted its rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
“Put very simply, we don’t want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated a million people or two million people with a vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease,” Salim Abdool Karim, the co-chair of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19, said in a press conference Monday.
If I remember correctly, from newer numbers,
efficacy was in the order of 50 %. (not sure on that)
So numbers are early, and fluid, and vary on vaccine and location, and likely there's a different mix of variants. Over time, as more numbers are gathered, we'd expect more reliable numbers due to increased sample size. But with variant % of infections growing, the efficacy numbers will likely be changing due to a different mix of variants. So
we also need to see the genome tests done, so efficacy is properly known by 'original' vs. variant.
But that's difficult, as when looking back at samples for a particular variant,
Canoe wrote: ↑Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:51 pm
[...]
Because of poor genomic surveillance in the US, it took a while to realize it’s becoming a problem and growing across the US.
Seven
new converging variants with same 677 mutations found independently by experts across the U.S..
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/heal ... ution.html
[...]
And California found a new one.
Generally, the
practical efficacy is somewhat lower across the board, but apart from what appear to be either outlier studies - or outlier locations and hopefully not an indication of things to come -
still very worthwhile for meaningfully or significantly reducing the spread - depending on enough people getting a vaccine. Also,
the more who get vaccinated and the number of new infections reduce,
that's also reducing the opportunities to mutate.
The other general result seems to be that all are
very effective at lowering severity, such that
deaths are significantly lowered (appears near eliminated some places).
So far. Variants growing.
Then there's
Canoe wrote: ↑Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:51 pm
Variant B117 is now a Variant Of Concern (VOC)
- With more data and more study, from the U.K., new from scientists on NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group), "it is likely that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation and death compared to infection with non-VOC viruse."
- "It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low."
VOC B117 may be 30-70% more severe/deadly than old strains.
[...]
Plus variants infecting a higher number of woman and children than was seen in prior 'waves'. Consequences unknown.
Results are very much early, and earlier...
