The Long Cold Winter

All things outside of Burning Man.
Post Reply
can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Sat Mar 12, 2011 10:02 pm

Another interesting doc.
" For example, 20 percent deficits were behind all but four cases of
hyperinflation." " currently the U.S.
deficit is over 30 percent of all government spending."
"*Paper money standards with central banks independent of political authorities are less inflation-based than those with dependent central banks." That would that the more independent the FED is,,,, the less likely hyper-inflation.
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploa ... 031111.pdf
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Simon of the Playa
Posts: 19050
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:25 pm
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: La Guilde des Hashischins
Location: Rochester, Nevada.

epic flail!

Post by Simon of the Playa » Sat Mar 12, 2011 10:04 pm

Image
Frida Be You & Me

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:21 am

This article has excellent graphs on the whole cost-structure rising while revenue is falling;
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/thi ... t3-11.html
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:06 pm

Well, you knew that I wasn't going to post good news. GOV, economists and investors have been moving closer the date of arrival of our fiscal problems. The obvious thing to do is to read their archives and judge their accuracy. Here are a couple of quotes. DON"T shoot the messenger.
John Williams, " Williams also predicted 2 years ago we would have a “hyperinflationary depressionâ€
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:36 pm

The financial worry du jure is the bond market. Seems that the Japanese are dumping treasuries to finance problems at home. http://dailyreckoning.com/why-the-curre ... ort-lived/
My German is not good but, reportedly the Chinese banks have stopped buying bonds;
http://www.ftd.de/politik/konjunktur/:a ... 23857.html
The question is; who will buy bonds when the FED stops?
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmark ... 1/id/33411
Everybody knows that the bonds won't be repaid. Everybody is in 90 day paper to allow a quick exit. If the market decides that now is time for an exit, it would get messy. There are some who believe that this will come to pass very soon.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/aler ... n-progress
I believe that Martinson is a bit hasty.
We are spectators at a parade. We don't know when the last float will pass. We don't know if there will be fireworks. Wait and see :wink:

Edit; This is from Jim Rogers,,, not quite an optimist, though VERY rich. "Somewhere along the line we're going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then it's all over," he offered. "I thought it would happen in a few years; maybe it's going to happen in a few weeks."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... g-Point%22
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Simon of the Playa
Posts: 19050
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:25 pm
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: La Guilde des Hashischins
Location: Rochester, Nevada.

Post by Simon of the Playa » Fri Mar 18, 2011 5:36 am

can't sit still wrote:The financial worry du jure is the bond market.

YOUR STUPID IS SHOWING MR. "I'VE STUDIED FIVE LANGUAGES"...

horseshit.



go away you fucking moron.
Frida Be You & Me

User avatar
Ugly Dougly
Posts: 17172
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:31 am
Burning Since: 1996
Location: เชียงใหม่

Post by Ugly Dougly » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:55 am

Would one of you fucking geniuses explain why the Japanese yen is still strong? It's trading at 80 per dollar now, where for the longest time recently it was 110 -120 per $.

You throw a 9.1 earthquake and a tsunami and a nuclear disaster at them and their currency is stronger. WTF?

User avatar
Sic Pup
Posts: 1440
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 9:51 am
Location: Location, Location

Post by Sic Pup » Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:52 pm

I'm not sure but I do know the $ has dipped vs the £ in the last week or two so maybe it has more to do with the $ than the yen?
"Enjoy every sandwich" - W. Zevon

User avatar
Ugly Dougly
Posts: 17172
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:31 am
Burning Since: 1996
Location: เชียงใหม่

Post by Ugly Dougly » Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:55 pm

That's what I am thinking, maybe we need a national disaster to bring it back up again. :?

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Fri Mar 18, 2011 6:04 pm

I don't see any geniuses around so, you'll have to read a link. "Now, with homes and towns and power stations to rebuild and massive insurance claims to settle, they need their money back."

"So holdings denominated in dollars and pounds and euros and rand are being repatriated. That means buying yen. And nobody is selling, so the price goes up."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 45276.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/multi- ... rkets-pt-2
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:35 am

It has been well-proved that the Consumer Price Index is a big fraud designed to reduce the payments to retired people, SS recipients and people with Cost Of Living clauses in their pay schedule.
This article shows that inflation is eating away at everyone's salary. Congress wasn't happy with the loss of value in their salaries so, they voted themselves a COL increase. Since GOV was lying about the CPI, this lowered the value of the COL increase. Congress then voted themselves increased remuneration over and above the COL increases.
Then, the judges complained about the loss of pay related to inflation. One Appeals court judge filed a lawsuit in a lower court to have judge's salaries changed so that they wouldn't lose anything to inflation.
GOV employees don't want to take the hit that the rest of us take.
http://www.hillsdale.edu/news/imprimis/ ... 1&month=02
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Rabbi Dali Rick
Posts: 1848
Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:28 am
Location: Red Rock City, California
Contact:

Post by Rabbi Dali Rick » Sun Mar 20, 2011 1:17 pm

It just dawned on me why the unemployment numbers are so low, most of the people who are losing their jobs, aren't on the gov employment rolls. When they say the only ones working are the illegal aliens, it stands to reason that the only ones losing their jobs, are the illegals as well. We should just pull a Immigration scam like Utah, and give in-state amnesty for $2500 a pop, you can drive, get insuance, and pay to go to the public schools and healthcare, then when things get better recend the deal and keep the money. That's it! Somebody get Jerry Brown on the horn, I think we've solved his budget delema...

the rebbi

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:57 pm

Re : FED GOV employment rolls.
The FEDS have an unpayable debt. The classic road that is usually followed is to inflate away the debt. On average the U.S. eliminates half the debt burden by inflation. First off, inflation has the same result as taxes but, is much sneakier. The tried-and-true method to cause inflation is to print money and pay the [GOV] bills. Since GOV bond holders would get a bit pissed off at receiving a bundle of new bills with the ink still wet, GOV diversifies.

GOV pays for all it's other bills with still-wet money. The more people that GOV employs, the more money that it can pump into the economy. At present, most GOV jobs at the FED level pay double the private sector. This gives GOV a huge conduit to pump in inflation. Those TSA agents aren't just giving you a thrill, they are doing their part to inflate away the debt.
In their neo Keynesian shit-for-brains mentality, GOV is saving us all by pedal-to-the-metal spending. The simple-minded fucks in DC seem to believe that they can jump start the economy by using an ever-increasing army of GOV employees to spend debt-money into the economy. Since too much debt was the original problem, there isn't any way that new, additional debt will fix the problem.

It would seem that GOV knows that it will destroy the dollar on it's way to inflating away the debt. GOV [the bankers] are willing to wipe out those on a fixed income if it will reduce the liabilities of BIG GOV.
GOV prints currency to pay it's bills. The private sector has to work to get it's currency. The GDP is made up of the two. GOV causes currency inflation. The currency inflation is causing price inflation and weakening the private sector. As the private sector continually weakens, GOV has to try to make up the difference in employing as many as possible.
It borrows more and more money and squeezes the private sector out of credit markets. The private sector faces rising producer costs at the same time that it has reduced access to credit. GOV's efforts at taking up the slack are destroying the private sector.
Investors have abandoned the bond market. It survives by the printing press. Bernanke wrote years ago that the printing press will not work. The stock market is supported by infusions of $ trillions from the PPT. $ 6 trillion in new money showed up without source or explanation. http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php ... conspiracy

So, stocks and bonds are all held up by printing. GOV survives by printing. Printing has universally failed.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Simon of the Playa
Posts: 19050
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:25 pm
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: La Guilde des Hashischins
Location: Rochester, Nevada.

Post by Simon of the Playa » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:01 pm

what will happen, dear little boy, when the Wolf is actually at your door.



no one will hear your rants.
Frida Be You & Me

AKDMAN
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2009 12:41 am
Location: Alaska
Contact:

poke

Post by AKDMAN » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:18 pm

Mommy and Daddy say I have cried wolf too many times and when he comes to my door no one will hear my rants, I say Ill make a snare out of my sex swing so then I can poke him whenever I want
The Spenard Bar 2.0
We did this shit already, but fuck it, lets do it again

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:29 pm

This is a strange article. The pres of the Dallas FED says that WE are insolvent and will go off a cliff if GOV doesn't stop spending. Nothing new there. It does sound, like the FED may have some plan to square off with GOV. Kinda strange ?
The other strange thing is that he worries about ONE Billion Dollars expenditure in Libya.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... 1-day.html

This article lists some facts about just how well the rich are doing. It also lists 14 statistics about how bad the poor are doing.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... c-recovery
Strange, desperate times.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Ugly Dougly
Posts: 17172
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:31 am
Burning Since: 1996
Location: เชียงใหม่

Post by Ugly Dougly » Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:35 pm

Image

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Sun Apr 03, 2011 11:06 am

Good on yer, Dougly. This thread needs a little humor. As long as you're among the employed, life really isn't that much different. We hear all the gloom-and-doom stuff. True, it is gloom-and-doom for a certain percentage of people. Will the percentage go up,,, remain the same,,, or go down?
Here is a presentation by a research and investment company that predicted the credit crash in 2004. They predicted it on technical reasons. This presentation isn't about something that hasn't already been mentioned. It's about municipal bonds. It's worth listening to the presentation because they give a lot of cites, quotes and precedents.
All their earlier predictions were initially scoffed at. This didn't prevent the predictions from coming true.
http://clicks.hsibaltimorew.com//t/AQ/A ... p3I6A/X0g5

Just in case you had any doubts about the competency of the people guiding the financial ship-of-state, here's a quote from ,, New York Fed President William Dudley said the Fed is nowhere near succeeding on the employment front or price stability, for that matter. "We are still very far away from achieving our dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability,"
This is fucking marvelous. They're printing gobs of money to create "price stability"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42381193

Greece is going to keep taking bailout money to pay off previous bailouts. Everyone agrees that Ireland can't possibly pay back the banks debts. Portugal just flat-out isn't going to make it. That big chunk of real estate over the Pyrenees is primed for collapse. Nothing will save Spain.
The EMU just prints more money and the investors just keep shorting. The Germans and French are getting sick of propping up terminally sick banks. The banks are scared shitless that the PIIGS will emulate Iceland and tell the banks to shove it.
There is DEFAULT blowing in the wind and investors are crapping in their britches.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:34 pm

The crude goods price index went up 22 % in the last 6 months. That's a yearly inflation rate of 44 %. We're just getting started. We all need to keep in mind that there is a certain amount of disposable income. This will be spent on necessities and non-essentials. As the price of necessities goes up, the purchase of non-essentials goes down.
Reportedly, food prices will go up a lot;
http://www.financialsense.com/financial ... ce-markets

About 78 % of the economy was for consumer goods. Historically, before being force-fed credit, the number was down in the 60s percent. I suspect that it will revert.

OUR funding comes to a halt in a few days. GOV needs to raise the debt ceiling. A few republicans say that they will filibuster
"Lee has said he will consider dropping the filibuster – which may put a raise in the debt limit out of reach for Democrats, whose 53 votes fall short of the 60 needed to break filibuster – if the Senate passes a "major" concession, such as a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution."

OK, a major concession will be a big tax increase or a major spending decrease. The proposed spending cuts;
"If it means eliminating Obamacare, so be it. If it means eliminating the Department of Education, so be it. If it means eliminating the Environmental Protection Agency and Planned Parenthood funding and PBS and NPR subsidies, so be it"

Hmmm, none of the above cuts would make a meaningful difference. The republicans are floating a $ 4 trillion proposed cut over 10 years. That won't do it either. Supposedly $ 4 trillion is only 1/4 of what is needed.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... to-be.html
It will make for interesting news if the debt ceiling rise is blocked.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=283289

Almost everywhere that I read, the "investors" have a mindset that entitlements have to be cut drastically. This is shaping up as a class struggle in an Ayn Rand sort of way.
http://ftmdaily.com/ftm-financial-news- ... o-poverty/
1/3 of the income in America is from social welfare programs.
At the risk of catching a lot of shit, who should be cut back? How much? Should it be head-start or should it be super-expensive medical procedures for the elderly? Should it be farm subsidies? Should it be tax breaks for industry?

Should it be cuts instead to the armaments industry?
The prevailing mindset is to cut social programs.

Mish says, "Making the rather safe assumption that the GOP will not propose $1.2 trillion per year in tax hikes," Tax hikes are off the table.
If you consider that corporate taxes once paid 30 % of the federal revenue and now pay about 3 %, someone should be talking about tax increases.
A very-low tax on corporations is much more of a burden on the poor than it is on the rich. The poor lose out on the benefits from corporate taxes. The rich see diminished returns for their stock investments. This could maybe ignored but, the wealth transfer is getting so egregious that the poor are really suffering. A huge cut in the safety net will drive many millions into dire poverty.

Cutting out the dept. of education or energy or whatever will throw many thousands out of work. Cutting out high-dollar arms contracts will do the same.
State and local GOV are already pushing a lot of people out the door. If FED GOV does the same, millions more will be on the street.
I don't see much hope for taxing the corporations. The spending cuts will be very bad. A continuation of deficit spending would be very bad.
I wish you well.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Sat Apr 09, 2011 9:00 pm

This is an article looking at FED GOV as if it were a corporation with 50 subsidiaries. It claims that the corp is bankrupting the subsidiaries to keep itself afloat;
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27347.html

Forecasters are burning up the keys arguing deflation vs inflation. Jim Willie seems to have the best grasp of the larger situation;
http://www.financialsense.com/node/4779 ... m_term=FSO
Bernanke seems to have to worst.
GOV is doing it's damndest to inflate away the debt. The basic commodities index is up 44 % annualized. This will translate into consumer-price hikes with a bit of a lag.
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/inflation-t ... customers/
The rich seem to be doing OK.
"As the Economic Policy Institute has reported, the richest 10 percent of Americans received an unconscionable 100 percent of the average income growth in the years 2000 to 2007"http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... rates.html
100 % doesn't seem quite fair. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=24160
Another paper on inflation;
http://dailyreckoning.com/the-inflation ... -of-three/

The most critical item is the price of energy. Big, Bad, Bald, Ben, Bernanke says that he isn't creating any inflation. But; "Now, the Fed has three times the monetary base it had before the crisis. And oil is three times as expensive.

But here’s something else. Where’s the price of gold? It hit a new record yesterday. $1,458. That’s up about 3 times too? What a coincidence!

Read more: The Coincidental Rise of Oil and the Monetary Base http://dailyreckoning.com/the-coinciden ... z1J5DlPq7n

The important thing to keep in mind is inflation AND bonds. GOV claims that inflation is say, 2.1 %. GOV bonds sell for say, 3.1 %. investors make 1 %,,,,, just as an example.
Shadow Stats says that inflations is just under 10 %.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_da ... ion-charts

That means that bond holders lose on their purchases. If a bond returns 3.2 % and inflation is 10 %, investors are better off to buy bonds from countries that don't have high asset inflation.
The FED is now buying about 70 % of bond issuance. The FED also does currency swaps with Great Britain and GB buys bonds with fresh money. Many institutional investors have completely deserted the bond market.
SO, the FED prints money and causes currency inflation. This causes the bond buyers to desert the market and the FED has to print more money to buy more bonds. Pretty simple. The more money that the FED prints, the more that it has to print.

OK, so the FED prints money to buy bonds. This causes inflation and chases away bond buyers. This eventually forces up interest rates. The FED has to come up with more money to pay debt service. The FED has to print an ever-increasing of money to pay off those who don't roll-over their bonds. The more that the FED prints, the higher % of investors leave the market instead of rolling over.
The FED has to increase printing to make up for absent bond investors AND to pay for cash-outs from bond redemptions AND increasing debt-service.
The more that it prints, the worse the negative factors become.
It's true that I'm using FED in places where I should use "treasury". With GS at the helm, there's little difference.
This page has graphs of bond yields. They are rising in spite of what Bernanke is doing;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... rates.html

If you track the price of gold, it's going up steadily;
http://www.goldencharts.com/
if you track the price of oil, it looks similar;
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt ... CDYQ9QEwAQ

The dollar is going down steadily;
http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?imag ... cker=FUTDX

As oil goes up, the economy slows down. This slows down the velocity of money. The oil companies and speculators do better. The rest of the economy suffers. Unemployment goes up and there are fewer and fewer people working to support the whole shebang.
The parasites have perfected their methods and it is not going to get better. Some think that it will get worse;
http://www.alternet.org/economy/150416/ ... ploitation
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Sun Apr 10, 2011 9:46 pm

March was a tough month for GOV. Here are the numbers;
"Treasury paid a net of $1.0528 trillion in federal expenses for March."
"That $1.0528 trillion in spending for March equaled 8.2 times the $128.179 in net federal tax revenue for the month. "

As I mentioned above, GOV is having to redeem a LOT of bonds. Nobody trusted GOV so, they put the money into 90 day paper.
"The lion’s share of this federal spending went to redeem Treasury securities that had matured during the month—most of which were short-term Treasury bills that have terms of one year or less. In fact, during March the Treasury redeemed $705.3 billion in Treasury securities of which $623.9 billion were short-term bills with a term of one year or less."
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... shark.html

$ 705 billion paid out. 70--90 % of that was from fresh printed money. That fact will insure that everybody cashes out, rather than rolling over.
GOV also burned through about 1/3 of it's cash.

"To help pay off its $1.0528 trillion in monthly bills on only $128.179 in monthly tax revenue, the Treasury turned primarily to new borrowing. During the month, according to the Treasury statement, the government sold $786.5 billion in new securities. It also drew down its cash balance from $190.6 billion at the beginning of the month to $118.1 billion at the end of the month. "

GOV claims that it sold $ 786 billion in new securities,,, to who?? Last years sales were nothing like that amount. "Net private foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities were $306.4 billion
in 2010, up from $22.8 billion in 2009.
Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities
were $175.4 billion in 2010"
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/interna ... elease.htm

That's only $ 481 billion for the whole year. You have to add in domestic purchases also.
QE II was supposed to buy $ 100 million a month of long-term treasuries. GOV claims that it sold $ 786 billion in just one month. Very strange that it could sell that much when everybody has deserted the U.S. bond market. It's reckoned that the FED is buying at least 70 % of bond issuance. So, instead of Bernanke printing $ 100 billion a month, he's actually printing at least a half trillion dollars a month.

GOV printed a half trillion last month and burned through 1/3 of it's cash.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Simon of the Playa
Posts: 19050
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:25 pm
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: La Guilde des Hashischins
Location: Rochester, Nevada.

Post by Simon of the Playa » Mon Apr 11, 2011 3:56 am

I Love Lamp.
Frida Be You & Me

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Mon Apr 11, 2011 9:37 pm

Martin Armstrong is the absolute master of computer modeling for the economy. He just got out of prison and is adjusting and back to work. He is well worth reading. This is not for the faint of heart;
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/armst ... 040911.pdf

If you understand "shorting" it's more-or-less a bet that something will go down in the future. It's hard to short and get the timing right. The PPT pumped an estimated $ 6 trillion into the stock market and destroyed a lot of shorts. GOV is famous for printing money and killing shorts to teach others a lesson.
Bill Gross is fabulously wealthy and seems to be a smart guy. Bill Gross is shorting U.S. GOV debt;
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclus ... ime-record
This is extremely risky. If GOV can't squash him, it will make other sharks move in. George Soros made a cool $ billion by executing this play against the British Pound.

Erskine Bowles says that we have 2 years,, a bit more or a bit less;

I doubt that Bill Gross believes that it will take 2 years.
We shall see.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
Simon of the Playa
Posts: 19050
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:25 pm
Burning Since: 1996
Camp Name: La Guilde des Hashischins
Location: Rochester, Nevada.

Post by Simon of the Playa » Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:43 am

Image
Frida Be You & Me

User avatar
ygmir
Posts: 29386
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:36 pm
Burning Since: 2017
Camp Name: qqqq
Location: nevada county

Post by ygmir » Tue Apr 12, 2011 6:54 am

Image
YGMIR

Unabashed Nordic
Pagan

User avatar
Ugly Dougly
Posts: 17172
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:31 am
Burning Since: 1996
Location: เชียงใหม่

Post by Ugly Dougly » Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:20 am

[youtube][/youtube]

User avatar
1durphul
Posts: 704
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:14 pm

Post by 1durphul » Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:54 am

can't sit still wrote:Martin Armstrong is the absolute master of computer modeling for the economy. He just got out of prison and is adjusting and back to work. He is well worth reading. This is not for the faint of heart;
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/armst ... 040911.pdf

If you understand "shorting" it's more-or-less a bet that something will go down in the future. It's hard to short and get the timing right. The PPT pumped an estimated $ 6 trillion into the stock market and destroyed a lot of shorts. GOV is famous for printing money and killing shorts to teach others a lesson.
Bill Gross is fabulously wealthy and seems to be a smart guy. Bill Gross is shorting U.S. GOV debt;
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclus ... ime-record
This is extremely risky. If GOV can't squash him, it will make other sharks move in. George Soros made a cool $ billion by executing this play against the British Pound.

Erskine Bowles says that we have 2 years,, a bit more or a bit less;

I doubt that Bill Gross believes that it will take 2 years.
We shall see.
So, assuming this is all correct, the end is coming. Where does a person put their money that allows it to remain liquid, and will beat inflation?

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:11 pm

1durphal, the stock answer was always gold. In the video, "Petrovoltaics" , John Bedini claims that he figured a way to make gold. He was then visited by "people". They told him to desist. They also told him that 50 % of Russian and American gold was manufactured.
I won't make any claims. BUT, a standard side-product from cold-fusion experiments is a big variety of elements,,,,, even though the starting electrodes are pure palladium. You could search up on "platinum cannon" for another curious story.

To answer your original question. Farmland has been appreciating close to the rise in gold. The big oil guy T. Boone Pickens invested very heavily in water,,, an aquifer in Texas. Water is going to be increasingly scarce.

After the war, America had a lock on manufacturing. Our standard of living went way up. Now, the world is full of manufacturers. Our standard of living will go down. Americans will have FAR less purchasing power. You could invest in essentials. I believe that Con-Agra and Cargill are privately held. Maybe you could marry into the family.
Dunno. I bought farmland.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
Posts: 4645
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
Location: SoCal

Post by can't sit still » Mon Apr 18, 2011 9:08 am

Standard and Poor is an American bond rating company. They had a big part in the mis-rating of derivatives and instruments. They went along with anything that the bankers wanted. NOW, S&P is threatening to downrate U.S. GOV debt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13118834
The IMF is a bastard child of American imperialism. The IMF is a tool used by mega-bankers to pillage other countries and economies. Now, the IMF is warning that there is an urgent need for America to cut the deficit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13050017
GOV has only made the very slightest reductions. Even the budget proposed by Ryan is inadequate to balance the budget. Nobody actually expects to balance it though.
If fiscal irresponsibility from U.S. GOV has the IMF and S&P panicked, the situation must be dire. I suspect that the unseen problem is NOT debt service,, not yet anyhow. I suspect that bond holders are NOT rolling over their investments. This may be why Bill Gross is shorting U.S. treasuries. Instead of just paying debt service, treasury has to pay bond liquidation.
Stay tuned for further fuck-ups :mrgreen:
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

User avatar
1durphul
Posts: 704
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:14 pm

Post by 1durphul » Mon Apr 18, 2011 2:05 pm

can't sit still wrote:Standard and Poor is an American bond rating company. They had a big part in the mis-rating of derivatives and instruments. They went along with anything that the bankers wanted. NOW, S&P is threatening to downrate U.S. GOV debt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13118834
The IMF is a bastard child of American imperialism. The IMF is a tool used by mega-bankers to pillage other countries and economies. Now, the IMF is warning that there is an urgent need for America to cut the deficit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13050017
GOV has only made the very slightest reductions. Even the budget proposed by Ryan is inadequate to balance the budget. Nobody actually expects to balance it though.
If fiscal irresponsibility from U.S. GOV has the IMF and S&P panicked, the situation must be dire. I suspect that the unseen problem is NOT debt service,, not yet anyhow. I suspect that bond holders are NOT rolling over their investments. This may be why Bill Gross is shorting U.S. treasuries. Instead of just paying debt service, treasury has to pay bond liquidation.
Stay tuned for further fuck-ups :mrgreen:
I wonder if investing outside the US through mutual funds might help avoid the imploding dollar?

Post Reply

Return to “Open Discussion”