Earthquake prediction

[can't sit still]

Well, as most of you know, there is a California geologist who has a good record of earthquake prediction. He was right on target for the "world series earthquake". He says that various indicators predict a quake in Ca for this weekend.

There was another guy who reportedly predicted the Christchurch earthquake. I don't have a link at the moment. Too lazy.
Ca has hundreds of faults. The main one being the San Andreas. It's 250 miles deep.
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/484/289/ ... ornia.html
The northern end is about due. The last time that it slipped was the Great Tejon Earthquake of 1865. It is now due to make up about 35 meters of displacement,,, northward. USGS says that there will be lateral accelerations of 3 Gs. I believe that this works out to about 55mph.
The southern end , down by the Salton Sea is reportedly about 300 years overdue. This from memory,,, still too lazy.
There was a Russian guy who predicted an earthquake for us but, then recanted before the date because he had discovered a flaw in the data. Now, there is a new Russian report that is pretty vague.
http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=843

I see a lot of BS out of Russia. The reason that I mention it is because most of these reports are based on tidal forces from various celestial bodies.
Piers Corbyn has used this data in his weather predictions with good accuracy.
Jennifer Lawson Phd. did a lot of work several years ago using the same influences to predict weather. She wrote that we would have SEVERE weather after 2010. It was a private E-mail so, I have no link. The weather is indeed severe.
She was also quite clear in saying that volcanoes and earthquakes would be very common.
This is a 2004 article about the super-caldera in Yellowstone;
http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellow ... elease.htm
If I recall correctly, it has a "period" of about 585,000 years. We're still several thousand years short and I'm not too worried.
The 2012 alignment is supposed to cause some minor perturbations with our sun. That isn't hard to believe.
The new twist is the claim and questioned effect of gravity waves. I will not make any claims because I haven't had time to read up on the subject. Too lazy
http://www.metaresearch.org/cosmology/s ... ravity.asp

If there is indeed an effect [gravity waves], our upcoming alignment may be something than we expect. Time will tell.
If I can spare 50 hours for reading up on the subject, I'll let you know the general beliefs. If y'all can give me a short education, it will save me reading on one more interesting subject. Y'all might want to put your good wine bottles someplace safe.

[Thecatman]

I grew up in the LA area. I been through one 6.1, one 6.2 and two 6.6 and numerous 4 and 5+, but I can't imagine what an 8.9 or I guess 9.0 now, would be like.
Seems like since the 1971 Sylmar earthquake, trying to predict them escalated......after that event, California was supposed to falll into the ocean.....at least west of the San Andreas fault.

[ibdave]

after that event, California was supposed to falll into the ocean.....at least west of the San Andreas fault.

at the time I was 11-12 living in Camarillo. My mom was drinking a lot at the time and took us Kids to the beach on the big day.. She figured if it did happen, we should have front row seats....

[TomServo]

L.A. wont fall in the ocean, but alot of it will be under water, as are areas below sea level. In a few million years, the coastal part of california will be up near Oregon...or at least thats what I learned in our "plate techtonics" class.

[Isotopia]

Right.

We're moving towards the archipelago of Alaska where we'll eventually 'dock' as a terrane (spelled correctly BTW)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrane

and eventually become part of a greater land mass which will be completely irrelevant - unless you believe in reincarnation.

[can't sit still]

To those of you living east of Palmdale, you're going to stay, more or less, where you are. To those of you living west of Palmdale, you're going on a short trip north. Most of the San Andreas creeps north at the rate that fingernails grow.... aseismic creep. The Palmdale bulge causes a stick-and-slip for the local area. The fault is 250 miles deep,,, the ocean is a few thousand feet deep. there isn't really a question of just, falling off.
California isn't related to a subduction scenario, so there really isn't a likelihood of a tsunami.
I believe that USGS predicted a magnitude over 7 but under 8. Don't quote me. The duration in L.A. is supposed to be 7 minutes.
The main danger AFTER the quake is the probable lack of an exit. The small quakes take out the local bridges. An extensive quake could be expected to do the same in a bigger area. There are only 4 roads into L.A.,,,, 5 15 10 and 101. There are a few small roads. All of them have bridges. A couple of the aqueducts could be expected to suffer and the power transmission lines would have problems.

The Long Beach refinery would probably be off-line. The backup generators in emergency facilities would need refueling eventually. It takes 1100 trucks of food every day to feed L.A. It becomes obvious that re-supply would begin to be a problem. With the bridges down, it would make sense to head for a marina and try to get on a boat north. Preferably, a power boat because it is difficult to get past Point Conception much of the time. It would be interesting.

[Simon of the Playa]

beware of false pro fits.


go prognosticate yourself into a hole in the ground you sad, sad man.

[ygmir]

I'm going with Gordon Michael Scallion.........I've got beachfront where I am.

[teardropper]

Well, I was in the '71 LA quake, now live in south-central Oregon and missed thier last fairly big one here in '93, which was only (I say 'only') a 6.0. Pretty mild by the 9.0 we've been thinking about lately. Lot's of old brick buildings in our 19th century downtown and it knocked down a some of those and killed some folk. I have volcanic geothermal heat that heats my house and domestic water, free heat is nice, and have been fearing another big quake, not because of the quake so much, I live in a single story frame house, as much as that it may disupt my geothermal heat. I have no other source, no back up source, of heat and no water heater. Big quakes have been known to stop some hot springs and create new ones. Though, technically, my heat doesn't come from a spring, but a 'hot spot'.

[Ugly Dougly]

Free heat is great until it erupts.

[FIGJAM]

There was a guy that found out that in the 30 days leading up to a quake, that the number of run away and lost pets jumped by 20 to 30%.

[Bob]

Well, as most of you know, there is a California geologist who has a good record of earthquake prediction. He was right on target for the "world series earthquake". He says that various indicators predict a quake in Ca for this weekend.

There was another guy who reportedly predicted the Christchurch earthquake. I don't have a link at the moment. Too lazy.
Ca has hundreds of faults. The main one being the San Andreas. It's 250 miles deep.
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/484/289/ ... ornia.html
The northern end is about due. The last time that it slipped was the Great Tejon Earthquake of 1865. It is now due to make up about 35 meters of displacement,,, northward. USGS says that there will be lateral accelerations of 3 Gs. I believe that this works out to about 55mph.
The southern end , down by the Salton Sea is reportedly about 300 years overdue. This from memory,,, still too lazy.
There was a Russian guy who predicted an earthquake for us but, then recanted before the date because he had discovered a flaw in the data. Now, there is a new Russian report that is pretty vague.
http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=843

I see a lot of BS out of Russia. The reason that I mention it is because most of these reports are based on tidal forces from various celestial bodies.
Piers Corbyn has used this data in his weather predictions with good accuracy.
Jennifer Lawson Phd. did a lot of work several years ago using the same influences to predict weather. She wrote that we would have SEVERE weather after 2010. It was a private E-mail so, I have no link. The weather is indeed severe.
She was also quite clear in saying that volcanoes and earthquakes would be very common.
This is a 2004 article about the super-caldera in Yellowstone;
http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellow ... elease.htm
If I recall correctly, it has a "period" of about 585,000 years. We're still several thousand years short and I'm not too worried.
The 2012 alignment is supposed to cause some minor perturbations with our sun. That isn't hard to believe.
The new twist is the claim and questioned effect of gravity waves. I will not make any claims because I haven't had time to read up on the subject. Too lazy
http://www.metaresearch.org/cosmology/s ... ravity.asp

If there is indeed an effect [gravity waves], our upcoming alignment may be something than we expect. Time will tell.
If I can spare 50 hours for reading up on the subject, I'll let you know the general beliefs. If y'all can give me a short education, it will save me reading on one more interesting subject. Y'all might want to put your good wine bottles someplace safe.

I predict you will put your pants back on when FedEx arrives with your hot Israeli soldier porn.

[Simon of the Playa]

DRE DILL DRE DILL DRE DILL

i made him out of clay

and when he's dried and ready

He'll Make you go away...

[Isotopia]

Well, as most of you know, there is a California geologist who has a good record of earthquake prediction.

I predict your doctor will suggest you change your meds for plastering this bullshit up and expecting half-sane people to take it seriously.

[cowboyangel]

I wouldn't be surprised if California had a big shake somewhere, but right now, I'm more interested in driving the Texas Panhandle looking for tornadoes, like those tornado chaser guys.

Let's see, Ive been close to an erupting volcano (Kilauea) looked down the throat of Popocatepetl before it erupted & Mount Spur in Alaska right after an eruption, stood in a great east coast hurricane, been "in" a gale at sea, felt Loma Prieta, ( I'm starting to feel like Owen Glendower from Henry IV part 1), but never have I been up close to a Tornado. Gotta do it.

<i>Cousin, of many men
I do not bear these crossings. Give me leave
To tell you once again that at my birth
The front of heaven was full of fiery shapes,
The goats ran from the mountains, and the herds
Were strangely clamorous to the frighted fields.
These signs have mark'd me extraordinary;
And all the courses of my life do show
I am not in the roll of common men.
Where is he living, clipp'd in with the sea
That chides the banks of England, Scotland, Wales,
Which calls me pupil, or hath read to me?
And bring him out that is but woman's son
Can trace me in the tedious ways of art
And hold me pace in deep experiments.</i>

Owen Glendower

[can't sit still]

FIGJAM, I'm sure that you're familiar with the Piezo-electric effect. Squeeze a rock [quartz crystal] and it gives off electricity. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piezoelectricity
It is theorized that the strain on crustal rocks produces small currents that are sensed by many animals.
"There have also been examples where authorities have forecast successfully a major earthquake, based in part on the observation of the strange antics of animals. For example, in 1975 Chinese officials ordered the evacuation of Haicheng, a city with one million people, just days before a 7.3-magnitude quake. "
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... imals.html
Seismologists don't want to accept anything that they can't quantify.

30 days before the Northridge quake, USGS said that strain was building up at a very rapid rate. They use piezoelectric sensors buried in the rocks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piezoelectric_sensor
Half-wits don't seem to be aware of current science.

[Simon of the Playa]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.


shut up, i'm trying to watch bibi.

[FIGJAM]

Was the "75" quake the one where they were watching cockroaches?

[can't sit still]

That's the one but, they were monitoring lots of other things too;
http://www.earthmagazine.org/earth/article/1fe-7d9-4-7
This was posted before the Japan quake.
"According to traditional Japanese lore, the fish rise to the surface and beach themselves to warn of an impending earthquake"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Japan.html

[Thecatman]

at the time I was 11-12 living in Camarillo. My mom was drinking a lot at the time and took us Kids to the beach on the big day.. She figured if it did happen, we should have front row seats.... Cool Rolling Eyes Shocked

That was about the age I was, going on 12

[Thecatman]

In a few million years, the coastal part of california will be up near Oregon...or at least thats what I learned in our "plate techtonics" class.

I've heard too that in around 10,000 years, maybe more, the Dodgers and Giants will be cross town rivals again

[Isotopia]

I'm more interested in driving the Texas Panhandle looking for tornadoes

Always thought that was mid to late summer but I see that things actually get started up from April to July.

If I were chasing a tornado I think I'd forget the whole armored, satellite directed bus and stick with the go kart and the modified 25 gallon gas tank.

[cowboyangel]

I'm more interested in driving the Texas Panhandle looking for tornadoes

Always thought that was mid to late summer but I see that things actually get started up from April to July.

If I were chasing a tornado I think I'd forget the whole armored, satellite directed bus and stick with the go kart and the modified 25 gallon gas tank.

I'm glad you understand. This is definitely a job for playa experienced drivers.

[ygmir]

modified gas tank?

[gyre]

Long live the supercontinent!


Try the windrider, designed to be picked up by the tornado.

[Kinetik V]

Anyone who wants to go chasing tornadoes or even thinks about it needs to chase down their local NWS meteorologist and get storm spotter training before doing anything else. Follow that up with any courses offered by your local emergency management team. Then instead of rushing out to chase on the first good day stay home and use your internet connection to learn more. And even further you can look and learn even more with these Spotter Guides: http://spotterguides.us/, or follow along with Severe Studios and their Ustream feeds and save yourself some gas and serious hail damage....

That being said the last thing tornado alley needs is another addition to the road clogging, emergency vehicle blocking caravan of idiots that put themselves and first responders at risk by not knowing what the fuck they're doing out there. If you chase...if you think about chasing, go educate yourself. Otherwise stay the fuck at home and watch the Discovery Channel.

Sorry for the rant but I've been "chasing" and reporting for the NWS for over 14 years now, and this is a subject I am quite familiar with. The best "chasers" can stay parked most of the time while the zoo goes flying by...we get the NWS the warning info they need, and we get our video...while the rest gets the gas bill and hail damage.

[Isotopia]

modified gas tank?

A split tank. Regular un-leaded gas for when you're driving around looking for a tornado and Jet-A fuel when the tornado is looking for you.

[ygmir]

modified gas tank?

A split tank. Regular un-leaded gas for when you're driving around looking for a tornado and Jet-A fuel when the tornado is looking for you.

hahaaa, I get it.

I guess I missed the memo.

so, Iso, what do you hear about the quake prediction for you in the Bay this weekend?
I'll be in Fremont on Saturday......wondering if I need swim fins.

[Trishntek]

Anyone who wants to go chasing tornadoes or even thinks about it needs to chase down their local NWS meteorologist and get storm spotter training before doing anything else. Follow that up with any courses offered by your local emergency management team. Then instead of rushing out to chase on the first good day stay home and use your internet connection to learn more. And even further you can look and learn even more with these Spotter Guides: http://spotterguides.us/, or follow along with Severe Studios and their Ustream feeds and save yourself some gas and serious hail damage....

That being said the last thing tornado alley needs is another addition to the road clogging, emergency vehicle blocking caravan of idiots that put themselves and first responders at risk by not knowing what the fuck they're doing out there. If you chase...if you think about chasing, go educate yourself. Otherwise stay the fuck at home and watch the Discovery Channel.

Sorry for the rant but I've been "chasing" and reporting for the NWS for over 14 years now, and this is a subject I am quite familiar with. The best "chasers" can stay parked most of the time while the zoo goes flying by...we get the NWS the warning info they need, and we get our video...while the rest gets the gas bill and hail damage.

But But Buttttt! You are making the huge assumption they want to survive!

[littleflower]

The main danger AFTER the quake is the probable lack of an exit. The small quakes take out the local bridges. An extensive quake could be expected to do the same in a bigger area. There are only 4 roads into L.A.,,,, 5 15 10 and 101. There are a few small roads. All of them have bridges.

CSS ... did they say how big an earthquake would need to be, and exactly where it would need to break, to take out ALL of these freeways at once, from all directions??????

i mean, this is really very funny ...... and i know that you know how huge LA is ....