Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:18 am

Canoe wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:12 pm
  • For those who are not vaccinated, Omicron is both more severe and more fatal than Delta.
WHO is now saying that Omicron is less severe than Delta.
Let’s be clear: while Omicron causes less severe #COVID19 disease than Delta, it remains a dangerous virus, particularly for those who are unvaccinated. Almost 50,000 deaths a week is too many. Learning to live with this virus does not mean we should accept this number of deaths.

https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1481342273384337408

Counts, Tests, Deaths
Jan 12
  • Record 15 million cases reported in last seven days
  • challanges in detection & reporting
  • access to testing
  • self-testing at home not counted
  • we know the 15 million is an underestimate
  • lower proportion of cases are dying
    [~edit: Omicron less severe, or due to vaccinations as seen in severity & deaths of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated...]
  • 43,000 deaths in last seven days
  • False naratives:
    - the common cold - not true
    - just mild - not true
  • vaccinations!
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1481254500161794050
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:30 pm

Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:26 am
... Note on those un-vaccinated who think they're 'protected' by a prior infection: while there is still a decent antibody count, the effective antibodies that actually rally an immune response wane significantly by three months, and is negligible by six months. This was with variants prior to Omicron.

I've not seen anything on that with Omicron. Nor on if an infection of a variant prior to Omicron has any benefit regarding Omicron (nor on a prior Omicron infection for a new Omicron infection). ...
Omicron has Immune Avoidance
Limited benefit from a prior pre-Omicron Covid-19 infection or a prior Omicron infection.
Can be infected or re-infected by Omicron.
  • “We’ve had a number of well-documented second infections with COVID,” ... “... there’s no reason to think that Omicron in this regard is any different than the previous variants.”
  • “Just as we have seen over the course of the pandemic, one infection does not necessarily protect from a further infection,”
  • Omicron also has a large number of mutations—including at least 34 on its spike protein, which is what the virus uses to latch onto your cells—and “it’s so very contagious,” Dr. Schaffner says. “People shed so much virus with Omicron. As with other infections, sometimes immunity can be swamped if the exposure is very intense,"
  • recent research from the Imperial College London found that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times higher than it was with Delta, the previous dominant COVID-19 strain.
    [edit: 6.36 times higher for unvaccinated, 5.02 times for vaccinated]
    Omicron was associated with a 5.41 (95% CI: 4.87-6.00) fold higher relative risk of reinfection compared with Delta. The relative risks were 6.36 (95% CI: 5.23-7.74) and 5.02 (95% CI: 4.47-5.67) when estimated separately for unvaccinated and vaccinated cases, respectively.
  • Researchers specifically found that protection against reinfection by Omicron from a past COVID-19 infection could be as low as 19%.
  • “One of the key features of Omicron is that it’s much more resistant to immunity, whether vaccine-induced or caused by previous infection,”
  • “Yes, you can get Omicron twice,” ... “Omicron is highly contagious and it would appear to not induce fantastic protective immunity,”
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/omicron ... 00558.html
https://doi.org/10.25561/93038 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... ort-49.pdf
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:47 am

The way I think about vaccination changed.

Used to think of:
- direct protection (1°) — protect SELF from illness, and
- indirect protection (2°) — protect OTHERS by reducing transmission.

Now I think about systemic protection (3°) — avoid healthcare system collapse & RN+MD exodus.

"antibody waning is very indiosyncratic - some lose nearly all antibodies after six months and some don't."

“The hospitalization rate among 3x-vaccinated 80+ year olds is lower than the hospitalization rate among unvaccinated 12-29-year-olds.”
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:28 pm

Omicron "less severe"

Keep seeing epidemiologists saying that using "milder" for Omicron is misleading. That Omicron has the full range of outcomes, with the numbers of severe cases reduced by vaccine use. Properly described:
- Delta was more severe than prior variants
- Omicron is less severe than Delta but more severe than priors, while being significantly more contagious.
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:42 pm

In the U.S., hesitancy (such a polite term) for vaccines, masks, social distancing and limiting gathering sizes, is very polarized by political leanings that had already been manipulated to be divisive so they could panic people into a polarized support. While stoking that further likely looked like a good tactic at the time, it appears to be on track to decimate those supporters, hence their support. Those areas more affected by those leanings, and despite the outcomes and warnings, and are stubbornly hanging on to their "hesitancy", continue to face more consequences in covid cases, covid deaths, covid treatment bills and Long Covid. Along with all Americans - other than the profiteers - facing economic consequences. It's starting to appear that those consequences will have a meaningful affect on future voting. Not counting the gross & intentional mismanagement in some states having people change their vote, just by simply killing off supporting voters.

It's starting to look like Long Covid will be a factor in voting too. Unknown numbers of people will be
- unable to stand in long lines to vote, let alone for several hours duration (or can't afford so much time away from someone needing care),
- would be unable to vote by mail or
- unable to have someone "harvest" deliver their completed ballot.
With higher numbers of red voters affected by covid, they'll be proportionally more affected by the various voting measures being put in place to counter phantom unrealized "risks".

The graph below is prior to Omicron. The graph's time period shows the U.S. with Delta in place with vaccines available, and illustrates the consequences of stoking decisiveness and pushing "hesitancy". Without that manipulation, all states - as in all Americans - should have easily been able to be under 400 deaths per million. And with the majority of people following public health measures, rather likely that most Americans would have been living in an area well under 200 deaths per million. For example, for the same period with Delta & vaccines, with most people following public health measures, the Netherlands came out around 100 deaths per million.

How many American deaths, and deaths of their supporters, has those pushing "hesitancy" caused. (Clue: look at the graph and compare it to the Netherlands' 100/m.) How many more American deaths will they cause. Plus all of the American lives and American families affected by those deaths, and the consequences of covid treatment costs, long covid limitations, treatment costs and lost earnings, etc.. While the disinformation has been traced back to various actors, including Russia, China and Iran, at what point do those internal to the U.S. who are promoting that disinformation, that is killing and harming American people, face civil or criminal liability for the consequences their actions caused and continue to cause.
.
Showing Delta in place, with vaccines available.jpg
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:07 pm

Canoe wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:33 pm
Long Covid people are missing naive T cells.
Immunological dysfunction persists for 8 months following initial mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection
- Patients with LC had highly activated innate immune cells, lacked naive T and B cells
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01113-x?s=09
Increasing discussions showing up on the loss of immune fuction due to Long Covid, and how long term it may be. Considering if there will be long term impacts similar to AIDS/HIV and other RNA-virus damage to T-cell immunity. Both at the patient level and due to the large numbers affected, at a society level or even country level.

Good news.
(I'm assuming this means for those double-vaccinated who then got covid-19, NOT those with Long Covid who then got vaccinated.)
We revised the paper and not only are #covid19 cases who got 2 #vaccine doses reporting much less #longcovid symptoms than unvaccinated-they're reporting no more than uninfected people- suggesting vaccination brings these symptoms back to baseline
https://twitter.com/epi_michael/status/ ... 7359495172
https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 22268800v2
and already...
some concern, should discuss if selection bias as a potential limitation here
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:52 pm

Canoe wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:07 pm
We revised the paper and not only are #covid19 cases who got 2 #vaccine doses reporting much less #longcovid symptoms than unvaccinated-they're reporting no more than uninfected people- suggesting vaccination brings these symptoms back to baseline
If this is correct, that those double-vaccinated are protected from Long Covid, then moving forward there will be an even greater difference (in deaths, disabilities, financials & insurablity) between U.S. voters who are vaccine "hesitant" (along with their families) compared to those who got vaccinated before acquiring Long Covid.

NYTimes & Mayo Clinic report U.S. vaccination rate has improved to around 63 % fully vaccinated and 75 % have at least one dose (caution that the 75 % may be high, as some doses are misreported as a first instead of a full or second).

Interesting to do the math and see how many were so badly mislead. Once they realize that, and how much that cost and will continue to cost them, there's well over one hundred million Americans, or their surviving relatives, who are going to be really pissed off. In some States, due to what they're doing or not doing, that's going to be near everyone in the state.
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:16 am

Health Canada has approved Paxlovid, Pfizer’s oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19
  • "This is the first COVID-19 therapy that can be taken by patients at home, which is an important distinction,”
    “Until now, the medications for treating COVID-19 we have authorized have to be given intravenously or by injection in a hospital or health-care setting."
  • The treatment, which must be prescribed, has been approved for adults with mild to moderate forms of the illness who are at high risk of developing more severe outcomes.
  • The treatment works by stopping the virus that causes COVID-19 from replicating itselfand invading healthy cells. It’s a combination of the Pfizer antiviral nirmatrelvir and the antiretroviral ritonavir, a medication used to treat HIV.
  • It can only be taken within five days of symptom onset for those who have received a positive test result confirmed by a health-care provider.
    - Meaning it cannot be used as a preventative measure before or after exposure to COVID-19.
    - It also can’t be used as a starting point for treatment for those requiring hospitalization for severe COVID-19 cases.
  • “The study showed that treatment with Paxlovid compared with no treatment reduces the risk of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19
    - by 89 per cent when the medications were started within three days of the beginning of symptoms, and
    - by 85 per cent when started within five days,” Sharma said.
  • Short supply of the medication has led to the government prioritizing who will first get the treatment when it is dispensed in Canada. That includes some immunocompromised people who can’t mount an effective response to COVID-19 — regardless of vaccination status — and those over age 80 whose vaccinations are not up to date. Those ages 60 and up who live in rural and remote communities, long-term-care settings or Indigenous communities whose vaccinations are not up to date will also be among the first to receive the treatment.
  • The federal government has already signed a deal with Pfizer for one million courses of the treatment.
  • A separate agreement was also inked with Merck for up to 500,000 courses of its oral treatment, molnupiravir, with options for up to 500,000 more courses of the yet-to-be approved drug.
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federa ... -pill.html
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:17 am

January 13, 2022
Canoe wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:00 am
... Also, more criticism of the CDC Director is flying around for the CDCgov guidance for a shortened 5-day isolation not following the science, as Omicron cases have been found to be infectious up to 12 days after positive.
Small study (small sample size)
Published Dec 7, 2021
Persistence of clinically relevant levels of SARS-CoV2 envelope gene subgenomic RNAs in non-immunocompromised individuals
One in 10 people with COVID-19 still could be infectious beyond 10 days, and some could remain so for as long as two months, a new study suggests.
  • This study aimed to evaluate the associations between COVID-19 severity and active viral load, and to characterize the dynamics of active SARS-CoV-2 clearance in a series of
    retrospective collection of swab RNA samples from 265 clinically confirmed COVID-19 cases from the South West of the UK during the first wave of infection, between March 17, 2020 and November 29, 2020.
    [Edit: Not Delta. Not Omicron.]
  • A key component of the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is the identification and isolation of infected individuals. A better understanding of who is likely to present an extended infectious period, and for how long, would greatly inform strategies to more effectively limit transmission. Limited findings suggest that most COVID-19 transmission occurs in the early stages of the disease, or before the onset of symptoms.
  • Most evidence suggests that replication-competent virus cannot usually be recovered from individuals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 disease beyond 10 days of symptom onset.
  • Other studies have suggested that whilst the shedding of viral fragments may be prolonged, the duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived and prolonged transmission potential may only be evident in individuals with severe disease or in severely immunocompromised patients.
  • [This study found] 13% of sgRNA-positive cases still exhibited clinically relevant levels of virus after 10 days,
  • with no clinical features previously associated with prolonged viral clearance times.
    "Furthermore, there was nothing clinically remarkable about these people, which means we wouldn't be able to predict who they are," Harries added in a university news release. [Edit: wouldn't be able to predict who will be contagious for these longer periods.]
  • some individuals retained sgRNA positivity for up to 68 days
  • Our results suggest that potentially active virus can sometimes persist beyond a 10-day period, and could pose a potential risk of onward transmission. Where this would pose a serious public health threat, additional mitigation strategies may be necessary to reduce the risk of secondary cases in vulnerable settings.
    "We may need to ensure people in those settings have a negative active virus test to ensure people are no longer infectious."
  • "We now want to conduct larger trials to investigate this further,"
  • Standard PCR tests check for the presence of viral fragments and can reveal if someone recently had the coronavirus, but not whether it's still active. The new test -- which is not yet available -- only gives a positive result when the virus is active and potentially infectious.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2022/01 ... 642177829/
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.312 https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S120 ... 6/fulltext
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by The Rod » Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:21 am

two months. what a nightmare.

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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:38 am

> two months. what a nightmare.

Months?
We're just reaching two years of it going public!
On or around January 23, 2020.

And it gets better... check this out.
Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:38 am
(We shouldn't need to be discussing this...)
Also unknown: contrary to social media, any efficacy benefit provided by drinking one's own urine, the urine of someone who is infected, from someone who is recovered, from someone who treated themselves with horse-dewormer, or from a horse or cow treated with dewormer. ...
Now to the list that includes bleach, Lysol, dewormer & urine, we add "inhale hydrogen peroxide via a nebulizer" after you've been out and about unvaccinated & unmasked.
Critical Care Surgeon here.
Please Do Not Inhale Hydrogen Peroxide. This is Dangerous.
Refusing to get vaccinated is one thing— but intentionally inhaling a harmful substance that can land you in the hospital, on a ventilator, or result in your death is mind blowing.
"Just wait, next they’ll be recommending to put your piss in the nebulizer!"
"He goes to the back of the lung transplant list"
"Does he drink piss at the movies? Don't want to know what he puts on his popcorn."

On a meme: Dewormer is so 2021. We're drinking our pee now.
Last edited by Canoe on Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:20 am

And this...

From the list of consequences covid-19 can cause or affect, we have blood clots rearing its head in a way I've not heard before. There's the infertility in males known from 2020, but this could wake up a few people.

"A man who suffered agonizing penis pain due to a “mild” #COVID19 infection 3 weeks earlier that caused a blood clot of his penis vein—mid-erection. It took 2 months of blood thinner treatment before he regained normal function."
Deep dorsal penile vein thrombosis in a patient with COVID-19 infection: A rare complication and the first reported case
  • The case study is devoted to investigating of penile pain in a 41-year-old married man. According to medical evaluation, the pain extended to the perineal and inguinal regions and it was reported to be more acute during erection. The patient was referred by urologist for sonographic evaluation of penis and testes. The pain had started 3 days before the urologist examination, following his first full erection for intercourse, after his positive COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test.
  • The patient did not have any other urologic symptoms such as discharge, hematuria, or dysuria. He denied any trauma to the penis, previous pelvic tumor, pelvic surgery and history of recent immobilization. He did not use vasoconstrictive drugs. The patient reported positive nosopharyngeal swab test for COVID-19 three weeks earlier. He had mild symptoms of COVID-19 infection including muscle pain, fever, cough, and fatigue. He had received conservative treatment and had not taken any anti-coagulants, antivirals, and corticosteroids. His medical history did not show any significant underlying disease and any risk factor for cardiovascular disease. He also did not have history of previous deep vein thrombosis. In physical examination of the penis and testes, no pathologic finding was detected such as skin tissue changes, discoloration, edema, tenderness, or palpable nodularity.
  • Ultrasound evaluation of the deep dorsal penile vein shows no flow in the vein. Also the vein is dilated and contains echogenic thrombosis from the middle part of the penis extending to the root of the penis at posterior of the pubic symphysis. The thrombosis is not extended to the superior of the urogenital diaphragm. Above findings are in favor of subacute thrombosis of the deep dorsal penile vein.
    [The deep dorsal penis vein runs the whole length of the penis and is involved in supply of oxygenated blood to the organ.]
  • The coronavirus is mostly known to cause pulmonary disease such as pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome; however, during the course of COVID-19 pandemic, it exhibits some extrapulmunary manifestations including hematologic, neurologic, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and renal manifestations. This pathology may be due to extracellular proliferation of the COVID-19 virus and the induction of immunopathological reactions, as it has been reported previously for other zoonotic coronaviruses in the literature.
  • Coagulopathy as a part of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome is a prevalent feature of COVID-19 infection. Roughly, 20%–50% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection have abnormal coagulation tests (elevated D-dimer, prolonged prothrombin time, prolonged clotting time, thrombocytopenia and low fibrinogen levels) which can cause thrombosis and microvascular occlusion, due to endothelial dysfunction, cytokine storm, hypoxia, and immobilization. Increased D-dimer leads to consumption of natural coagulation inhibitors that can cause vascular thrombosis.
  • Searching the literature showed no previously published similar case of deep dorsal penile vein thrombosis fallowing COVID-19 infection and our patient is the first reported case. Only superficial dorsal penile vein thrombosis are reported previously.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ccr3.5117 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ccr3.5117
There have been other penile clots reported from covid-19, causing persistent erections; some where Doctors had to drain blood from the penis using a needle because ice packs did not work to bring the stiffness down. Experts have found evidence that COVID may damage the blood vessels of the penis, making it harder to get an erection.

Not exactly a usual medical resource, ...
My penis SHRANK more than an inch ‘due to damage from Covid’ – and docs say it’s permanent
...
Ashley Winter MD, a urologist in Portland, US, and associated with Kaiser Permanente, explained that penile shrinkage after Covid is a domino effect of erectile dysfunction.
She told the podcast: “It is true that having erectile dysfunction leads to shortening. You have this period of time where the penis is not stretching itself out, where it’s not, you know, getting all this full blood into it, and that can lead to scarring of the penis and shortening of the penis.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/mens-he ... permanent/
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:29 am

For those of you outside of the U.S. ...
Remember that most people in the U.S. pay for own health care, or pay a "co-pay" (which can be for more than what the tests, treatments or meds costs... your co-pay covers the treatment AND more profit for the insurance company) from a screenshot of a news program:

Non-Complex Covid-19 Median Charges
- National: $54,000
- California: $84,000
- Maryland: $28,000
- Utah: $71,000

A web source
In-Network (an insurance approved provider) Complex COVID-19 Hospitalization costs varied by state, with the highest in-network cost averaging $128,650. Maryland was the lowest at $49,127 for COVID-19 complex hospitalizations. [edit: source below says different]
https://revcycleintelligence.com/news/i ... -than-128k
Another source reports
The state with the highest average charge for a complex COVID-19 hospitalization is Nevada, at $472,213. The lowest is in Maryland, where facilities charge an average of $131,965.
Highest Non-complex was Wyoming, with Complex: $353,623, Noncomplex: $102,772.
Lowest Non-Complex was Maryland, with Complex: $131,965, Noncomplex: $31,339.

Browse this for an eye opener...
Shows Average Complex and Average Non-Complex, by U.S. state.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/f ... state.html
So if you're travelling to the U.S. (like coming for BM), you need travel medical insurance, and be aware of the co-pay (pay more to get a lower co-pay), and be VERY aware of In-Network (you go to an insurance approved/partner provider) vs. Out-Network (you go to another provider), as suddenly the co-pay is higher or there are Out Of Network charges in $10,000s or $100,000s of dollars. Make sure your insurance will prevent you from being bankrupted by a medical event. And you want air ambulances or medevac covered too. Last I heard a medevac from the playa to Reno was around $40,000? More?
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:39 am

U.S. Daily New Cases appears to be settling back to the 500,000 to 600,000 range. I don't know any way to know if this is truly reflective of the numbers, or if the drop is due to issues with testing limitations. Global Daily New Cases also appear to be rounding. Same issues regarding limitations.

The U.S. tallied 546,904 Daily New Cases, with a population ~334 million.
North American had 629,614 Daily New Cases, with a population ~553.5 million, and includes a number of 2nd and 3rd world countries.
  • The U.S. has ~60.3 % of the population of North America, with 85.3 % of the Cases, 68.5 % of the Deaths and 86.9 % of the New Cases.
  • The rest of North America has 39.7 % of the population, with 14.7 % of the Cases, 31.5 % of the Deaths, 13.1 % of the New Cases.
  • Canada has 6.9 % of N.A.'s population, with 3.5 % of Cases, 2.5 % of Deaths, 3 % of New Cases.
    .
  • The U.S. shows: 1637 New Cases /million, one Case for every 7 people, one Death for every 432 people.
    - U.S. New Case rate 4.3 times that of the rest of N.A..
  • The rest of N.A.: 377 New Cases / million, one Case for every 19 people, one Death for every 545 people.
  • Canada shows: 495 New Cases / million, one with one Case every 14 people, and one Death every 1202 people.
    - Low deaths per is likely due to access to 1st world health care and the resulting general good health: Canada is a 1st world country, with most of its population living in 1st world conditions, with "free" (people's tax dollars pay for it; health insurance for everyone) 1st world health care for most of the population. Note: most Indiginious communities and some rural communities get the very short end of the stick on such access, with a number not even having clean water.
France tallied 464,769 Daily New Cases, with a population ~65 million.

Europe (Russia lumped in data) had 1,431,138 Daily New Cases, with a population ~748,358,572. Includes a number of 2nd world countries, with a number of their population living near 3rd world conditions.
  • Europe is showing 1912 New Cases /million, one Case in every 7 people and one Death in every 474 people.
  • France is showing 7096 New Cases / million, one Case in 4, one Death in 513.
    - A New Case rate over four times that of the U.S., and over five times that of the rest of Europe.
  • Europe w/o France, 1415 New Cases / million, one Case in 7, one Death in 470.
    - Without France, the New Case Rate is ~ 86 % that of the U.S..
  • The U.K. is showing 1376 New Cases / Million, one Case in 4, one Death in 449.
Numbers for the past seven days and the prior seven days are a more meaningful comparasson than the above. I may get time to get to that.
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:42 pm

Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:39 am
Numbers for the past seven days and the prior seven days are a more meaningful comparasson than the above. I may get time to get to that.
2022 New Cases by 7 Days, January
(Population): 7 Days to 11th, 7 Days to 18th
USA (334,003,597): 5,450,918, 5,078,315
Canada (38,253,698): 269,667, 195,488
Rest of N.A. (219,496,403): 322,053, 505,034
.
Covid-19 N.A. 7 days - 2022-01.jpg
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4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:12 pm

Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:42 pm
2022 New Cases by 7 Days, January
(Population): 7 Days to 11th, 7 Days to 18th
USA (334,003,597): 5,450,918, 5,078,315
Canada (38,253,698): 269,667, 195,488
Rest of N.A. (219,496,403): 322,053, 505,034
Wrong number. That's North America less the U.S..
Number used for chart is correct, N.A. less the U.S., less Canada, is 181,242,705.
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Molotov » Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:30 am

COVID is running wild in the rural counties of Kansas. My small county with a population of 5292 has had 1487 cases (29%) with 25 deaths. But the resistance is change is strong here on the plains with only 50% of the eligible population in my county being fully vaccinated. Of the current 103 active cases, 37 are school-age children.

I have even know families who intentionally got exposed to Covid to contract a case and as they say "to get it over with", much the same way moms in the 1960's used to send their kids to play with their neighbors who had chicken pox so they could catch it and get permanent resistance. Nobody knew that shingles would rise up and bite them in the ass when they reached middle age.

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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:49 pm

In case anyone google brings to your post misunderstands, I'm going to respond even though it should be obvious to those who have informed themselves.
Molotov wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:30 am
... I have even know families who intentionally got exposed to Covid to contract a case and as they say "to get it over with", ... "chicken pox so they could catch it and get permanent resistance. Nobody knew that shingles would rise up and bite them in the ass when they reached middle age.
sigh...
Like other coronavirus, due to antibody waning and antibody effectiveness waning, with Covid-19 there is no permanent "natural" resistance. Coronavirus (virus, not Covid-19 variant) immunity range is typically from three months to five years, depending on which coronavirus (virus, not Covid-19 variant). It was originally hoped Covid-19 might provide meaningful immunity benefit out to the year mark, with any longer benefit a bonus against a pandemic. While count waning shows antibodies can sometimes last longer, with antibody effectiveness waning, the immunity benefit Covid-19 provides is turning out measured in months and is effectively zero by the half year mark (with some immunity lasting somewhat longer for some individuals for unknown reasons). With Covid-19, any post disease immunity benefit is not even long lasting. Some individuals might get lucky, but from what is known now, we can forget about lasting herd immunity.

Then came Omicron with its Immune Avoidance and "appear to not induce fantastic protective immunity".
Canoe wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:30 pm
...
Omicron has Immune Avoidance
Limited benefit from a prior pre-Omicron Covid-19 infection or a prior Omicron infection.
Can be infected or re-infected by Omicron.
  • ...
  • “One of the key features of Omicron is that it’s much more resistant to immunity, whether vaccine-induced or caused by previous infection,”
  • “Yes, you can get Omicron twice,” ... “Omicron is highly contagious and it would appear to not induce fantastic protective immunity,”
viewtopic.php?f=65&t=109964&start=60#p1212232

And then along with post-Covid-19 immune damage turning up, there's
Some bad news: LongCovid (after Covid-19 resolves, symptoms or medical problems continuing for: 3 months+, 6 months+, or > 12 months) is affecting more and more children. #LongCovidKids
Like males with Covid-19 in their 20's and 30's, I wonder how many children will later find out there were unknown consequences regarding fertility.

AND, while Omicron may have peaked for adults (peaked - not over, still huge), it is still spiking for children, and is expected to get worse as various jurisdictions send children back to in-school teaching.
Last edited by Canoe on Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:57 pm

An interesting tip - UNVERIFIED - on judging a positive test strip for viral load.
Video of what a REALLY strong positive looks like.
Time to positivity is a measure of virus load - as is line intensity.
Here, note that the sample line (T) becomes visible AND dark before the fluid gets a chance to even hit the control line.

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 4228415489
And lower down on that tweet thread, is their implementation of the 'furnance filters as particle filter' we saw promoted and on eplaya during the forest fires in California. In this case, they're using HEPA filters to make such a filter for their home after an occupant tested Covid-19 positive.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 4032733186
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:17 pm

Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:39 am
U.S. Daily New Cases appears to be settling back to the 500,000 to 600,000 range. ...
The U.S. tallied 546,904 Daily New Cases, with a population ~334 million.
North American had 629,614 Daily New Cases, with a population ~553.5 million, and includes a number of 2nd and 3rd world countries.
That was short lived.
As data caught up, that number for that day has changed to the U.S. tallied 710,905 Daily New Cases. (And the prior day nudged up over 600,000, to 602,158.)
For North America, 821,508 Daily new cases.
The U.S. with 60.3 % of the North American population, shows with 86.5 % of its Daily New Cases.
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:30 pm

Canoe wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:39 am
... France tallied 464,769 Daily New Cases, with a population ~65 million.
... [*]France is showing 7096 New Cases / million, one Case in 4, one Death in 513.
- A New Case rate over four times that of the U.S., and over five times that of the rest of Europe. ...
France, prior to late December 2021, had Daily New Cases under 85,000 (record 83,324 Nov 2020), and usually under 40,000, and within those often under half that. The 85,000 is 1298/million, 40,000 is 611/million.
Then with a spike starting in mid December 2021, France with 5,627,602 Active Cases (~8.6 % of their population) & 15,613,283 Total Cases (~23.8 % of their population), for that last three days has had Daily New Cases of
464,769, for 7096 New Cases /million
436,167, for 6659 New Cases /million
425,183, for 6492 New Cases /million.

While Europe w/o France is showing Daily New Cases in the 1400s /million.

With its Omicron spike having decreased to "only" four and a half times higher than the rest of Europe combined, France has decided to set lockdown relaxation.
Covid-19 restrictions could be loosened in France from February onwards, the prime minister has said, shortly after country’s Covid vaccination pass comes into effect.
Jean Castex said on Thursday the pass will come into effect on 24 January, provided it gets approved by the Constitutional Council.
From 2 February, guidance recommending employees work from home three days a week would be dropped, with remote working arrangements now at the discretion of individual workers and their bosses.
Nightclubs would reopen from 16 February.
Jean Castex said that the general Covid situation in the country was becoming more favourable. He added that the Covid pass could even be suspended, if the Covid situation improved dramatically.
I'm curious. Is "France" used to refer to two different countries?
Is their PM on drugs? Needs to be?
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:05 am

After looking like Omicron had peaked and was early on rounding over, two days ago to UTC/GMT global Daily New Cases was back up to 3,598,784, then yesterday a new global record at 3,669,810 Daily New Cases.

For the U.S.

- Two days ago has had data catch up, from 546,904, then 710,905, and is now showing 727,414 Daily New Cases (2178 /million), 86.8 % of North America's 838,017.
- Yesterday 692,320 Daily New Cases (2073 /million), 84.5 % of North America's 838,773 Daily New Cases, with some data expected to catch up and nudge the U.S. count somewhat higher.
In spite of this latest Omicron surge, new cases may still be rounding over. While numbers for the U.S. have headed back up some, they're still distinctly below (over 100K below) the all time peaks which are within this past month. There will be, so very unfortunately, a surge due to returning to school..., with this recent surge likely related, along with returning to work after the holidays.

Although dreading it, I had a look at Florida. It is the cluster-f expected. 5,289,959 Total Cases, 24.6 % of its population, 246,300 /million. Total Deaths of 63,569, for 2,960 /million. And 1,562,643 Active Cases, 7.3 % of its population. And that's with Florida under reporting and putting the brakes on the woman who was publicly reporting actual numbers...

But then sorting by Total Cases /Million (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), worse than Florida in Total Cases % of population are: Tennessee (24.7 %), Alaska (24.9 %), Utah (25.4 %), North Dakota (26.9 %) and Rhode Island (30.6 %).
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:26 am

Looking at the U.S. Resolved Cases (Total - Active), U.S. Deaths are 1.968 %.
Global Deaths are 1.994 % of Resolved Cases.

As a percent, that doesn't seem so bad. But that's equivalent to two out of a hundred who caught Covid-19 died. (And that doesn't reflect all of the additional Excess Mortality due to Covid-19.) As the Covid-19 vaccines are used more, provided the vaccines get to people faster than the virus does, we should be seeing the death rate decline.

With U.S. Total Cases of 70,544,862, 21.6 % of the U.S. population caught it, means that over 70 million Americans got thrown on the two out of a hundred lottery. And how many will be paying treatment costs, plus the ongoing financial & life costs of Covid-19 damage, including Long Covid, some facing consequences for the rest of their life. Tell me again why the medically capable are not getting vaccinated. Do they want to die, abandon their family? Do they want to lose their family's home? Do they want to bankrupt their family?

For the U.S. currently known active cases, 25,613,160, applying the U.S. Death Rate would mean another pending half million (503,865) deaths added to the 5,596,114 Americans who have already died. And that's without the hundreds of thousands of new cases every day. But that U.S. death rate includes the early cases where development of treatments was rapidly evolving, Delta, and the death rate is down for those who are vaccinated. The death rate for cases detected quarterly or monthly would significantly better reflect where we were and where we're going. I don't have that data, nor the time to work it, and I can't recall seeing a source that has done that.
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:20 am

Canoe wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:05 am
... then yesterday a new global record at 3,669,810 Daily New Cases.
[U.S.] 692,320 Daily New Cases
More numbers have caught up for that day, the 20th.
Global Daily New Cases was 3,735,575.
With updates for the U.S. now showing 748,733 Daily New Cases.

For the 21st,
Global Daily New Cases of 3,652,349
U.S. Daily New Cases of 779,036

Also as of the 21st,
- Neck & neck Total Cases the day before (U.K. 15,613,272, France 15,600,647),
- France's 400,851 Daily New Cases (6120 NC/m) for 16,001,498 Total Cases 'advances' to pass the U.K. with 95,787 Daily New Cases (1400 NC/m) for 15,709,059 Total Cases.
- France is also 'ahead' with 244,305 Total Cases /million over U.K.'s 229,529 Total Cases /million.
- U.K. is higher in Total Deaths at 2,243 /million, to France's 1,960 / million.

Brazil doesn't have any Covid, or at least not in any numbers to bother with. So I shouldn't be pointing out Brazil's 23,757,741 Total Cases, 168,820 Daily New Cases, or 622,647 Total Deaths. Brazil's 110,549 Total Cases /million, is less than half that of the U.S. (213,744). Yet Brazil's Total Deaths of 622,647 is 2,897 deaths /million, higher than the U.S. 2,657 deaths /million.

India, With a population of 1.4 Billion,
- With issues tallying all cases, India's 38,003,731 Total Cases is in 2nd place behind the 'top place' U.S.A..
- But with its population, that's only 27,767 Total Cases /million for India, to 213,744 Total Cases /million for the U.S..
- India's 337,704 Daily New Cases is only 241 New Cases /million. U.S. has 779,036 Daily New Cases, for 2,332 /million.
- India's 488,911 Deaths to U.S. Deaths of 887,643, has India showing 349 Deaths /million, to the U.S. with 2,657 Deaths /million.

Global, 44,494 Total Cases /million, 719 Deaths /million.
4.669
.
That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

Post by Canoe » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:45 am

Just f'n ducky.
Omicron has three variants: BA.1, and now BA.2 & BA.3.
  • BA.2 seen gaining ground (20 %) in some places where BA.1 was ~100 %, and it's starting to look like Omicron BA.2 might spread faster than Omicron BA.1.
    (Just as more jurisdictions are starting to look like they're ~50 % through an Omicron wave. A meaningfully faster spread for BA.2 could resurge that wave, impacting hospitals/health-care, and with more exposures resulting in more of a surge.)
  • No significant data yet suggesting severity is any different than Omicron BA.1.
  • BA.2 Immune Avoidance & viral load in question regarding spreading.
might
4.669
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That's one word I regret googling during breakfast.
.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
, but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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