Population Predictions?

[zorro sings]

Judging by the great number of tickets for sale alot of people have seemingly changed their minds about coming.Costs may have become prohibitive for this desert lark.Lots of evidence.

There is a glut of tickets on Ebay(we know about the problems some experienced but willing to wager most all are legit).

On our local Craigs List from Aug 5-7 you had a choice of 23 different parties offering their tickets to The Project.

There seems to be a record number of offers for tickets on E-Playa.A good number of posts offering tix priced at face or less have no responses.When has this happened?

Anone care to predict?I say less than last year.44,762

[Marscrumbs]

Number of tickets on sale less than 0.1%. I was expecting two orders of magnitude or more dropping out cause of gas.

I'd say a third as many artistic geniuses, and double the yahoos this year.

[Orchid]

I'm holding out hope that the no ticket sales at the gate change will keep the completely unprepared crowd to a minimum.

I guess we'll find out soon, eh?

[ZaphodBurner]

The BLM documents seem to suggest that a population of 50,000 would exceed the current capacity as permitted, OR, they're using Alternative 2 which expects a crowd greater than 50K

Alternative 3, by the way, was to deny the special use permit but that was not considered favorable because even with radically fewer numbers, the people who showed up for an "unauthorized event" around the playa would have a greater impact on the playa and surrounding springs than the event itself.

In any case, if the population exceeds 50,000 it could pose a problem with the BLM for next year.
-c

[Intubater69]

Populations estimates? Somewhere between 1 and 1,000,000 burners would be my guess

[Toolmaker]

42,247

[dragonpilot]

42,248

[Simon of the Playa]

ONE DOLLAR!


oh wait, wrong game.....


over 48,000 by a hair. or two, depending on the hair.

[thirt33n]

9.

[Marscrumbs]

Maybe burningman.org and the BLM can take a page from corporate America and have a ticket buy back at the gate this year instead to decrease the overpopulation.

[ZaphodBurner]

Maybe burningman.org and the BLM can take a page from corporate America and have a ticket buy back at the gate this year instead to decrease the overpopulation.

What we need are random hungry sabertooth cats. That would thin the population. Alas, I hear Random Sabertooth Camp isn't coming this year.

(They stopped coming to Black Rock City in about 14,000 BC. WAY before all the tourists started showing up. That was back when they still had the Critical Tusk Mammoth Stampede.)

-c

[Marscrumbs]

Maybe burningman.org and the BLM can take a page from corporate America and have a ticket buy back at the gate this year instead to decrease the overpopulation.

What we need are random hungry sabertooth cats. That would thin the population. Alas, I hear Random Sabertooth Camp isn't coming this year.

(They stopped coming to Black Rock City in about 14,000 BC. WAY before all the tourists started showing up. That was back when they still had the Critical Tusk Mammoth Stampede.)

-c

Was that also back when Burning Man was held in the La Brea tar pits?

(Black Rock desert was underwater as part of Lake Pyramid.)

[wedeliver]

8

So I type the number 8 hit submit and I get an error message that says "you must enter a message when posting". My message was the number 8

[wedeliver]

Maybe burningman.org and the BLM can take a page from corporate America and have a ticket buy back at the gate this year instead to decrease the overpopulation.

What we need are random hungry sabertooth cats. That would thin the population. Alas, I hear Random Sabertooth Camp isn't coming this year.

(They stopped coming to Black Rock City in about 14,000 BC. WAY before all the tourists started showing up. That was back when they still had the Critical Tusk Mammoth Stampede.)

-c

Was that also back when Burning Man was held in the La Brea tar pits?

(Black Rock desert was underwater as part of Lake Pyramid.)

Actually the historic lake that covered the whole place was Lake Lahontan

Wikipedia:
Ancient Lake Lahontan was a large endorheic lake that existed during the ice age, covering much of northwestern Nevada, extending into northeastern California and southern Oregon. At its peak approximately 12,700 years ago (during a period known as the "Sehoo Highstand"), the lake had a surface area of over 8500 square miles, [1] with its largest component centered at the location of the present Carson Sink. The depth of the lake was approximately 900 feet[2] (290 m) at present day Pyramid Lake, and 500 feet (150 m) at the Black Rock Desert. Lake Lahontan, during this earlier ice age, would have been one of the largest lakes in North America.[3]

Interesting that the Black Rock Desert was under 500 feet of water. Lake Lahontan still exists between Silver Springs and Fallon..

[sputnik]

10

ETA: Huh, 10 worked for me. 8 must be a special number.

As to the topic, I am hoping for less then 50,000. Too bad the org doesn't post sales numbers.

[gyre]

8.

[brickmaster]

Am i right in thinking that this could be the first year the population would have decreased year on year?
This might have an affect on next years theme, which should be decided upon sometime around now.
Any ideas?

[RegRad]

This is it.. right here 40,666

[Timezone LaFontaine]

46,248

[Marscrumbs]

What we need are random hungry sabertooth cats. That would thin the population. Alas, I hear Random Sabertooth Camp isn't coming this year.

(They stopped coming to Black Rock City in about 14,000 BC. WAY before all the tourists started showing up. That was back when they still had the Critical Tusk Mammoth Stampede.)

-c

Was that also back when Burning Man was held in the La Brea tar pits?

(Black Rock desert was underwater as part of Lake Pyramid.)

Actually the historic lake that covered the whole place was Lake Lahontan

Wikipedia:
Ancient Lake Lahontan was a large endorheic lake that existed during the ice age, covering much of northwestern Nevada, extending into northeastern California and southern Oregon. At its peak approximately 12,700 years ago (during a period known as the "Sehoo Highstand"), the lake had a surface area of over 8500 square miles, [1] with its largest component centered at the location of the present Carson Sink. The depth of the lake was approximately 900 feet[2] (290 m) at present day Pyramid Lake, and 500 feet (150 m) at the Black Rock Desert. Lake Lahontan, during this earlier ice age, would have been one of the largest lakes in North America.[3]

Interesting that the Black Rock Desert was under 500 feet of water. Lake Lahontan still exists between Silver Springs and Fallon..

Most Excellent! However I believe at the time the locals called this lake, "Bruuurgh" (The sound they made getting out of the cold water.)

[gyre]

Whether population goes up or down, costs will further reduce the serious burners coming from the east side of the country.
The ratio of casual tourists from california will increase in percentage further than last year.

I wonder how many gate sales were made last year?

[wedeliver]

Whether population goes up or down, costs will further reduce the serious burners coming from the east side of the country.
The ratio of casual tourists from california will increase in percentage further than last year.

I wonder how many gate sales were made last year?

8

[TomServo]

the fewer the better..Burning Man...or probably more accurately.. the playa.. has a natural selection process, that keeps it to a managable level.

[Badger]

Interesting that the Black Rock Desert was under 500 feet of water. Lake Lahontan still exists between Silver Springs and Fallon..

The historical high being in the neighborhood of 888' give or take a few.

[gyre]

I don't feel so dry out there now.





Or thirsty.

[mdmf007]

Not sure of a number, but it will probably be less than last year.

reasons, i believe.
1. Last years theme was a big draw for a lot of people
2. Not as much advertising as last year, or media coverage.
3. No gate sales - this will knock a few thousand off I am sure. Some folks dont like going through the hassle of buying a ticket online.

just my thoughts

[TomServo]

Not sure of a number, but it will probably be less than last year.

reasons, i believe.
1. Last years theme was a big draw for a lot of people
2. Not as much advertising as last year, or media coverage.
3. No gate sales - this will knock a few thousand off I am sure. Some folks dont like going through the hassle of buying a ticket online.

just my thoughts

the dust may have scared away a few as well..

[motskyroonmatick]

54,875

[theCryptofishist]

888 is the new 666.

[nocturnal_steve]

There is no glut of tickets on E-bay. Out of 10's of thousands of tickets sold, there are always many who when the time comes simply can't make it.
Conversely, there are many who's circumstances change and find they can make it. Last year I browsed tics for sale and brought mine late.

I don't think the "no tickets for sale at the gate" policy is going to discourage anyone except a few frat boys or Yahoo's. Anyone who really want's to go will find a ticket. I have purchased at cost or slightly below cost tickets in Gerlach on opening day or Mon or Tues multiple years. Just hold up a sign or ask around. Good Luck

P.S. I personally will be buying any and all extra available tickets floating around this year and be handing them out to Jesus Freaks, disgraced politicians and John Birch Society members"showing up and attending at the Temple of Atonement" mandatory.