2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:31 pm

Monday 6:47 PM
Cedar Pass on 229
hit & run collision

roadway clear

Sep 5 2016 6:47PM
1182-Trfc Collision-No Inj
299/cedar Pass
Sep 5 2016 8:16PM [32] 60-S3 RDWY CLR
Sep 5 2016 7:10PM [27] 60-S3 ONLY HAVE ONE WAY TRAFFIC CONTROL, NEG TOTAL BLK
Sep 5 2016 6:59PM [17] LE : RP ADV THAT THE TC OCC WHEN SHE WAS PASSING
Sep 5 2016 6:57PM [19] [Appended, 18:59:21] [2] IN THE EB LN ROLLED FRM THE WB LN
Sep 5 2016 6:50PM [11] 2ND RP CALLED ADV THEY VEH IS RIGHT AT THE TOP OF CEDAR PASS
Sep 5 2016 6:49PM [9] OTHER VEH THAT RAN HER OFF THE RDWY LEFT THE SCENE
Sep 5 2016 6:48PM [8] VEH WAS TRAVELLING TOWARDS ALTURAS
Sep 5 2016 6:48PM [6] VEH IS 1125 IN THE RDWY UPSIDE DOWN
Sep 5 2016 6:47PM [3] 1 SOLO VEH
Sep 5 2016 6:47PM [1] NON - INJURY TC
Last updated: 09/05/2016 8:23pm
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:02 pm

Monday 9:00 PM

Exodus time has gone from 3 to 4 hours late Sunday morning, up to 7 hours reported at 9:00 PM by Burning Man Traffic.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:27 pm

I-80 Westbound out of Reno still experiencing serious backup & delays from before Robb Drive, past Lawton through to Mogul.
Monday 10:22 PM


Accident still not cleared.
wme_-_i80_at_robb_dr. mon 10.22.jpg
Once clear of the above, I-80 Westbound is currently green/clear all the way through to Sacramento California.
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:43 pm

Monday 11:40 PM
Accident Westbound leaving Reno is cleared.

I-80 Westbound is green/clear from Fernley through Reno, through to Sacramento.

I-80 Eastbound has one tiny piece of congestion/delay at 3/4 of the way from Lovelock to Mill City. Otherwise green/clear through the Salt Lake City.
Last edited by Canoe on Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:45 pm

Exodus exit times to Monday 11 PM
2016 early Exodus times 4.png
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:22 am

As of 7:00 AM Tuesday.
2016 early Exodus times 5.png
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:38 am

On I-80 Westbound in Reno, the map is showing slowdowns between Sparks and 580.
The cameras show there's some volume there, but it's moving nicely.

I-80 Westbound out of Reno is green/clear all the way to Roseville California, then has delays all the way into Sacramento.

I-80 Eastbound from Reno is showing as green/clear all the way to Salt Lake City.

Wadsworth is having the continuing issues where Main Street splits for East and West, and on the stretch West down past the gas station to the Eastbound ramp and Westbound Ramp.

From Burning Man Traffic around 7:00 AM
Nevada DOT reports that debris from a returning BM participant is causing delays on 447 near the event. Please secure your load.
This doesn't appear on the traffic map, so no help there.

North from Gerlach is showing clear, except for some road maintenance near Mammoth on 39.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:32 am

I-80 Westbound, from Gold Run to Magra and Cape Horn, before 174
Tuesday 9:14 AM

blocked by jack-knifed tractor-trailer, with Hazardous Materials
additional vehicle(s)
reported detour at Rollings Lake


Westbound Interstate 80 MAGRA RD W WB OFF TO
In Placer county WB I-80 Magra exit has both lanes blocked due to a jack knifed crash. Motorists are being held at Rollins Lake exit. There is no estimated time of clearing.

Sep 6 2016 9:14AM
HAZMAT-Hazardous Materials Inc
I80 W / Secret Town Rd Ofr

Sep 6 2016 10:20AM [80] 1039 PGE DRUM FOREBAY FOR WATERWAY / ADVS HE WILL NOTIFY NEVADA IRRIGATION DISTRICT
Sep 6 2016 10:14AM [78] 1039 ENVIROMENTAL HEALTH - THEY WILL ADVS' THEIR SUPERVISOR
Sep 6 2016 10:09AM [76] 1039 OES - CONTROL # 16-5410
Sep 6 2016 10:09AM [75] 1039 FandG - THEY XFERRED CALL TO OES
Sep 6 2016 10:00AM [74] 1039 PC WATER AGENCY
Sep 6 2016 9:57AM [73] [Notification] [CHP]-UPDATE SIGALERT WB 80 HAS THE LANES BLOCKED AT MAGRA DUE TO A CRASH. TRAFFIC IS BEING HELD AT ROLLINS LAKE EXIT. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME OF CLEARING. [Shared]
Sep 6 2016 9:56AM [72] 1039 PC ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH / 1039 TO CB 70-S1 ON HIS CELL // ALL SUPERVISORS ARE IN A MEETING RIGHT NOW THEY WILL CB ASAP
Sep 6 2016 9:49AM [68] 1039 CALFIRE NOTIFIED - REQ CB IF THEY ARE WANTED TO RESPOND
Sep 6 2016 9:48AM [67] 1039 CT
Sep 6 2016 9:46AM [63] [Notification] [CHP]-Problem changed from 1182-Trfc Collision-No Inj to HAZMAT-Hazardous Materials Inc by CHP [Shared]
Sep 6 2016 9:42AM [62] PER 70-S1 - UNK IF ENTAC ALSO NEEDS TO BE NOTIFIED // CONTAINER COMPLETELY DRAINED, DID GO INTO STORM DRAIN IN CD
Sep 6 2016 9:37AM [58] [Notification] [CHP]-IS TRAFFIC NO LONGER USING SHOULDER AND NOW HOLDING AT ROLLINS OR DETOURING AT ROLLINS LAKE [Shared]
Sep 6 2016 9:36AM [57] LE 70-6 RLEAVING D2 AT ROLLINS LAKE WERE TRAFFIC IS STOPPED
Sep 6 2016 9:35AM [55] CT TASKED LN 53
Sep 6 2016 9:35AM [54] UU 70-S1 REQ 6 OR 12 TO RLEAVED D2 // 70-12 HIM RAN BREAK BACK TO Q // EB AGAIN CONTUAL BREAK
Sep 6 2016 9:34AM [53] 70-4 S1 CLEAN UP // BLACK TANK BROKE ON TRAILER OPEN 20-40 GAL SEWAGE ON ROADWAY // 70-S1 COPES REQ ADVISE CT'S
Sep 6 2016 9:32AM [52] [Rotation Request Comment] 1039 FOOTHILLS 530-637-4200 CPY WRECKER, TK AND TL, BLOCKING
Sep 6 2016 9:31AM [51] 70-S1 WB CLOSED AT ROLLINS LAKE
Sep 6 2016 9:30AM [50] 70-4 1185 WRECKER FOR DODGE 4X4 W/ TRAVEL TRAILER // OGING HAVE TO PULL TRAILER IN TO NUMBER#2 TO GET UN HITCHED
Sep 6 2016 9:29AM [49] [Notification] [CHP]-ISSUE SIGALERT WB LANES ARE BLOCKED DUE TO A JACK KNIFED BIG RIG. THERE IS NO ESTIMATED TIME OF CLEARING [Shared]
Sep 6 2016 9:28AM [47] REQ SIG ALERT UNK ETO ALL LANES BLOCKED // VEHS DRIVING ON RHS TO PASS
Sep 6 2016 9:28AM [46] 70-12 STARTING BREAK FROM GOLD RUN
Sep 6 2016 9:27AM [41] 70-4 97 IN TRAFFIC WORKING WAY THREW // WB JWO 55 MILE SECOND S CURVE
Sep 6 2016 9:26AM [39] [Appended, 09:27:06] [3] DRVR STILL IN VEH
Sep 6 2016 9:26AM [37] [Appended, 09:27:06] [1] TRUCK TOWING A TRLR - TC'D INTO CD - BLOCKING #1 LN
Sep 6 2016 9:25AM [32] 70-S1 REQ SIG ALERT
Sep 6 2016 9:25AM [31] 1039 TMC
Sep 6 2016 9:23AM [26] 70-12 COPES HOLD TRAFFIC AT SECRT TOWN
Sep 6 2016 9:23AM [24] 70-4 VEHS GETTING BY ON RIGHT SIDE // REQ UNIT HOLD TRAFFIC AT SECRT TOWN // VEH IS W/W IN LN#1 BLKG #2
Sep 6 2016 9:22AM [23] 70-4 WB 55 MILE CURVE // BLKG BOTH LNS
Sep 6 2016 9:19AM [17] [Appended, 09:20:59] [5] [Appended, 09:20:24] [1] PK W/ CAMPER // WHI W/ TRAILER LEFT LNS
Sep 6 2016 9:16AM [15] [Appended, 09:20:59] [3] UNK INJ
Sep 6 2016 9:15AM [5] VEH HIT CD
Sep 6 2016 9:15AM [4] NO INJ
Sep 6 2016 9:15AM [14] [Appended, 09:20:59] [2] FISHTAILED, JACKNIFED INTO CD // 1125 WHOLE RD EXCEPT SHOULDER
Sep 6 2016 9:15AM [2] BLOCKING BOTH LANES
Sep 6 2016 9:15AM [1] ONE VEH TC
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Canoe
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:54 am

Two hours ago BMT posted "Pulsing operations are striking their lanes and traffic controls."
Gerlach webcam showing groups of vehicles with good flow and spacing.

Some minor points with increased volume on I-80 Westbound in the passes into California.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:57 am

Sep 6 2016 10:35AM [87] [Notification] [CHP]-CANCEL SIGALERT ROADWAY CLEAR [Shared]
Sep 6 2016 10:33AM [85] 70-S1 ALL LANES OPEN

Map shows the traffic is clearing out.
Canoe wrote:I-80 Westbound, from Gold Run to Magra and Cape Horn, before 174
Tuesday 9:14 AM
blocked by jack-knifed tractor-trailer, with Hazardous Materials
additional vehicle(s)
reported detour at Rollings Lake

Westbound Interstate 80 MAGRA RD W WB OFF TO
In Placer county WB I-80 Magra exit has both lanes blocked due to a jack knifed crash. Motorists are being held at Rollins Lake exit. There is no estimated time of clearing.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:12 am

Burning Man Traffic
Tuesday ~11:09 AM
NDOT reports an accident with injury on 447 near Nixon. The incident appears to already be cleared, but please be careful out there!
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:04 pm

Sep 6 2016 11:58AM
1125-Traffic Hazard
I80 W / RAINBOW RD OFR (between Kingvale and Cisco Grove)
Sep 6 2016 11:58AM [1] RED ROLLED UP CARPET IN #1 LANE
Last updated: 09/06/2016 12:02pm
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Traveller in Time » Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:24 pm

Calm down, you sound annoyed by the trace they do leave.

Not that it is OK to leave traces, it does not help winding yourself up.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by JohnEBGud » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:00 pm

Left camp at 7:21 PM Sunday, pre Temple burn. Hit pavement at 4:41 AM Monday. Sat in the same spot in exit queue for nearly 6 hours without moving between 9:00 PM and 1:30 AM. Clearly the gate road was closed during that time, but I've yet to see an explanation why.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:09 pm

Traveller in Time wrote:Calm down, you sound annoyed by the trace they do leave.
Not that it is OK to leave traces, it does not help winding yourself up.
ah, you're aware that I'm simply copying and pasting posts from Burning Man Traffic and police reports?
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:16 pm

Looks like no more Burning Man Traffic tweets to log.
Here's what 2016 Exodus Wait Times they posted look like.
2016 Exodus Wait Times.png
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Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Ano » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:53 pm

I want to give a special thanks to the teenager who decided to disappear from her plug and play camp because she was mad at her parents and go off to party with a 30+ year old stranger. Thanks to her, we had one of the historically worst exoduses in a very long time. Hooray!

It's time to take a long hard look at the presence of children at Burning Man. Like guns, drones, uncontrolled burns, renegade parties within the city, massive sound systems outside of the DMZ, and food permits, it's probably time to consider the problems with kids at Burning Man rather than saying "they've always been here, its fine!"

Next time we think about how cool it is for some parents to bring their toddler to the worlds biggest free-for-all festival, maybe think about the abandoned kids who end up needing help to find their parents, the teenagers who run away and shut the gate down, babies in deadly environments that they can't process whatsoever, and little kids walking past hardcore bondage camps that practice their craft on the street corner. The Black Rock Scouts and Kidsville are certainly cool and sure, many kids are great out there, but... five hours of exodus completely stopped because a teen was mad at their parents and wanted to get high at a sound camp with a stranger.

Also, special thanks to the 2nd-year Burner who has clearly solved the exodus issues and proceeded to lecture me while I was on shift pulsing about how to fix it. I'm sure your clusterfuck involving six exits with ten minute pulses would surely solve the problem.

/anger

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Captain Goddammit » Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:19 pm

I can see the gate (well, actually right now I cant see a fucking thing - whiteout) and there's no traffic at all.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by bradtem » Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:57 pm

The slope is too steep. It suggests Tuesday at 3am there was a 3 hour wait, but at 4am there was a 1 hour wait. So if you left at 4 you got out an hour before the people who left at 3. :wink:

But on a more serious note, it should not be able to clear that quickly, unless what I have been told -- that the bottleneck is in Gerlach, not on 34 or the left turn onto 34 -- is not quite correct. Or is it that at 3am, all the Gerlach distractions are shut down, so people just barrel through, in which case they should be pulsing people faster onto 34?
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:17 am

As it was explained to me, the rate of vehicles getting off the playa is capped at a maximum, that's the bottleneck, so that the flow of vehicles off the playa can't overwhelm and bottleneck in Gerlach or further down the highway, which would cause unsafe conditions. Allegedly the theory.

I don't know for sure if the published time is:
- the time those leaving the playa were waiting in line, or
- the time those arriving into line should expect to wait in line before they get off the playa (I think it's this one).
If the rate of vehicles arriving into the line suddenly drops, then as the wait line clears out, those in the line see improved wait times.
If the rate at which vehicles from BRC join the line suddenly drops, then the wait time will suddenly drop.

In practice, on the Gerlach webcam, I saw consistent great flow through Gerlach for Exodus, with good and safe spacing between vehicles.
I have no idea what happened going South, in Nixon or Wadsworth, but the traffic maps were showing some consistent issues at Wadsworth as noted in this thread. From what I saw I'd guess Gerlach could handle some more, but not Wadsworth. No idea about Nixon. My gut feel (but I haven't got any reliable data to back it up), is that all of the towns downstream from the playa are each limiting factors governing the safe rate of flow of vehicles off of the playa.
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by bradtem » Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:47 am

That does not make sense to me. Since they don't know (unless they are asking or tracking licence plates) how long people who are leaving had to wait, I do agree that the time is likely what the length of the line was at any given time. If the line is 2,400 cars long and they are releasing 1,200 cars an hour, they would report the line as 2 hours.

Anyway, once you get in line, it should not matter one whit to your departure time how fast people are getting into line behind you or not. It will of course change how the length of the line (and new wait time) changes, but in theory, it should not be possible for the wait time to decrease by more than one hour in an hour, if they are letting the cars out at a fixed rate. The only way for the wait time to decrease faster than that would be for them to let cars out faster.

And it does make sense that they could let cars out faster at 3am because there should be no Gerlach bottleneck then. There is nothing to see or stop for, not much to distract unless gas sales are running. However, they should not be able to let cars out twice as fast, the opening of the bottleneck could not be that great.

It would be very odd if there is a regular bottleneck in Wadsworth. If that is the case, it is easily solved by directing half the traffic to turn right at Nixon and take 446/445 to Sparks. There should be no bottleneck after Nixon (barring accidents) because there is a full doubling of capacity at Nixon. Naturally accidents and Labour Day traffic could cause bottlenecks on I-80 and in Wadsworth.

I remain curious as to the precise bottlenecks. I have suggested some years ago that they ask Burners to turn on GPS tracklogs in their phones and email them in. (Google's My Timeline only works if you have cell signal I think.) These tracklogs would reveal immense amounts of data -- speeds at every place and time along the route, and even some distribution of how many people take the different routes. Combined with a pneumatic tube at 34 and the playa exit, you would know pretty much everything there is to know. I hope that is done some day. (There are other methods of course, including cameras, more tubes, bluetooth tracking, and just recording a video with an ordinary camera and processing it later with better software as the tools improve.)

The Gerlach bottleneck is hard (as you note there are safety issues.) The turn onto 34 is pretty easy to speed up, as noted. I am told the railroad tracks and possibly the Empire store offer some extra bottlenecks, but I still don't know what the core bottlenecks are.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Canoe » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:50 am

bradtem wrote:That does not make sense to me. Since they don't know (unless they are asking or tracking licence plates) how long people who are leaving had to wait, I do agree that the time is likely what the length of the line was at any given time.
I'm obviously not explaining it adequately.

They know how long the wait is, as they group vehicles in the line, advance the groups, then "pulse" groups of vehicles off of the playa. Over the years they've improved it greatly. Google Exodus pulsing.

And if you lookup what the org has published from earlier years, they have, and likely still do, monitor how long it takes to reach selected waypoints along the way, including all the way to Reno. Google for the graphs.

>Anyway, once you get in line, it should not matter one whit to your departure time how fast people are getting into line behind you or not.

No, but when the total volume of vehicles waiting is decreasing then the expected wait time of those arriving in line is decreasing. If there's almost no one joining the line, then it gets cleared out rather fast.
Remember, any indicator lags as it can only measure what has been and then we treat that as a future estimate. If you want another example that will drive you nuts, look at Simple Moving Average crossovers on a stock market graph.

> And it does make sense that they could let cars out faster at 3am because there should be no Gerlach bottleneck then.

At no time did I observe a bottleneck in Gerlach. At least from the hours I had the Gerlach webcam running; I wasn't watching every hour. They may vary the rate, but that's not my understanding. This is why I believe that the limiting place for avoiding bottlenecks is further away from Gerlach.

> It would be very odd if there is a regular bottleneck in Wadsworth.

Not really. Speed limit, choosing & turning East vs. West on Main Street, a bias to West plus West if you're hitting the gas station, traffic getting into/out-of the gas station, then traffic to the Westbound ramp or through the underpass to the Eastbound ramp. I turned on Satellite-View to confirm, and saw that the red section in the lane going towards Wadsworth was indeed at the gas station. The gas station on the West side explains the issue on the West side for getting through the underpass to the Eastbound ramp there.
There were frequent issues at Wadsworth observed on the traffic map, as reported in this thread. I can't recall checking and there not being an issue. It was so consistent, I never bothered to take a screen shot to post as example.

I have one. I outlined the sections that I typically saw marked orange or red, with an additional line showing the Wadsworth bound lane that was usually red. With no red in front of the gas station, and no-red I only saw in the middle of the night, it made me suspect the gas station could be closed.
Wadsworth.jpg
At all hours of the day or night I saw good flow through Gerlach, and traffic map indicating slowdowns in Wadsworth. So if you let more out off the playa, it can only make Wadsworth worse.
Wish there was a traffic webcam in Wadsworth to confirm what the traffic maps were indicating.
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... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Sergeant Sweetleaf » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:07 am

I have not read this entire thread, so forgive me if this is a repeat. Can someone construct a spreadsheet of the estimated wait times for each hour beginning Maybe Saturday at noon through Tuesday? Being able to see a graph of traffic trends over the last 2-4 years will help those in the future that want to plan a departure with low probability of heavy traffic.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by FIGJAM » Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:39 am

All day Monday and into Monday night they were saying 5 to 6 hours.

GARS was updating every hour.

Woke up at 5am yesterday and left camp at 5:15am.

Made it to the Love's in Fernley by 7:30am!!! 8)
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by AntiM » Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:00 am

Left camp after 9 am Monday, definitely before ten. Six hours to the pavement, two+ more to Fernley. Drivers were tired, so we spent the night in Winnemucca rather than push through all night.

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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by bradtem » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:16 am

Oh, I know how the pulse works, been through it many a time, and I believe you're saying the same thing I am -- they have markers to measure the length of the line, and while strictly those measure it in distance, they know the translation from distance to number of vehicles, and they have a rate they let vehicles out onto the road. To the best of my knowledge, the pulsing should not be visible at the turn to the road, only on the playa, but it could be if they are deliberately reducing flow through Gerlach, but it should only be slightly present there. (You would not see this unless you worked Exodus or , if it happens, you got stopped for Pulse and could see an empty road to the turn to an empty 34 in front of you, has anybody actually seen that?)

I have seem some charts from pigglywiggly like these: -- I would be curious as to others. They are not the sort of data I seek.

We're still not clear though on this other point. If people stop arriving as fast behind you, the wait time for them will decrease but it can't decrease faster than one hour per hour, unless the wait time estimates are seriously wrong. Which does seem to be the case, but of course I am curious as to how they could be that wrong -- the only thing I can think of is they start releasing cars to 34 faster.

Consider your chart, which says at midnight Tuesday morning they were tweeting the wait at 6 hours, presumably because the line was stretching to the point measured as being 5-6 pulses. Yet at 3am they say a new arrival at the line will wait one hour, meaning those who arrived at midnight are probably already gone or at most gone in an hour. So the 6 hour estimate was off by probably 3 hours, which should not be able to happen and is not affected by the rate at which people arrived behind those folks.



At no time did I observe a bottleneck in Gerlach. At least from the hours I had the Gerlach webcam running; I wasn't watching every hour. They may vary the rate, but that's not my understanding. This is why I believe that the limiting place for avoiding bottlenecks is further away from Gerlach.
That's what I am trying to find out. Gate/Exodus has told me it's Gerlach. Understand of course that a camera placed after the bottleneck will of course show smooth sailing all the time, unless there is a worse bottleneck ahead of it. So the Borg webcam suggests any bottleneck in Gerlach is before the water tower. If that's where it is. If there are bottlenecks at the gas station, or railway tracks, or just possibly the Empire store, then from time to time those could cause backups all the way to the water tower.

Not really. Speed limit, choosing & turning East vs. West on Main Street, a bias to West plus West if you're hitting the gas station, traffic getting into/out-of the gas station, then traffic to the Westbound ramp or through the underpass to the Eastbound ramp. I turned on Satellite-View to confirm, and saw that the red section in the lane going towards Wadsworth was indeed at the gas station. The gas station on the West side explains the issue on the West side for getting through the underpass to the Eastbound ramp there.
There were frequent issues at Wadsworth observed on the traffic map, as reported in this thread. I can't recall checking and there not being an issue. It was so consistent, I never bothered to take a screen shot to post as example.
Those things will cause a slowdown and do in the graphic. The true bottleneck -- which is the point in the route of lowest capacity -- will cause a backup which grows backward. Fortunately for us all, drops in speed limit only modestly reduce capacity. The biggest capacity reducer, as far as I know, is the large number of slower trucks and RVs in our flow. The large gaps generated between them at the cars that speed ahead of them is the biggest loss.

Wadsworth will have slowdowns for the reasons you say, but a decent fraction of vehicles turn right at Nixon (though nowhere near 50% and if Wadsworth is truly a bottleneck they should start a campaign to tell people to turn right and have a flagger when not enough are doing so. Then capacity doubles at the fork in Wadsworth again, as the easterners head the other way. You could also encourage westbound vehicles to turn left there for a slight detour if this were an issue.

A route like this will have multiple bottlenecks. The worst one (lowest capacity) will dictate how fast you should release cars from the playa. In particular, you want to avoid stop-and-go collapse because that can reduce capacity. But as you usually have several, fixing one doesn't always do that much for you. If Gerlach's taxidermy lane is 900 v/h you might fix it, but if the Empire store is 950 v/h and the highway itself is 1000 v/h, you can only get modest improvement.

On the main highway, passing actually provides a major improvement, but for safety reasons, BMOrg strongly discourages passing on 447.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by GreyCoyote » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:46 am

Brad: A bunch of us hams run APRS. That gives a minute by minute time/position/velocity update. If this is the type of data you could use, PM me. You could also reach out to the Burning Hams group and get quite a few additional participants.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by bradtem » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:56 am

GreyCoyote wrote:Brad: A bunch of us hams run APRS. That gives a minute by minute time/position/velocity update. If this is the type of data you could use, PM me. You could also reach out to the Burning Hams group and get quite a few additional participants.
I am sure that could be useful but it's a tiny fraction of vehicles. Pretty much every vehicle heading out of the city has a smartphone that could be recording a GPS tracklog. Even randomly selected tracklogs would reveal a lot, but if you had a way to know if they were truly random it would be a bigger goldmine, eliminating the need for any pneumatic tubes or other measurements. (The tubes have the advantage that they record every single car, no sampling, but they don't know where that car went.) Some traffic engineers have been discovering that about 10-15% of cars (and the phones in them) will respond to a bluetooth discovery, which lets you track individual vehicles to know how long it took them to get from A to B, and where they went, without the person doing anything. But tracklogs are better. If it weren't for the lack of cell signal the information would probably be already there.

If you have one of the cell carriers with coverage on playa and down 447, go to https://www.google.com/locationhistory and check the period of your exodus -- I would be curious to know how many people have it recorded there, and at what level of detail. (Because I am on TMo it only records a few points for me.)
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Ratty » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:37 pm

Left at 10 am Tuesday and of course there was no delays all the way to the Bay Area.

figjam, I knocked on your pod Monday night with my light-up swim noodle. (It knocks very silently). I talked to you through the wall wishing you a safe trip and see you next year. I think Mohairs was laughing at me.
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Re: 2016 Exodus: Traffic, stories, etc.

Post by Captain Goddammit » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:41 pm

I can report that there is very little outbound traffic as of Wednesday afternoon.

447 still has the usual asshats. Two motorhomes passed me on a narrow stretch even though I was rolling at the speed limit. Another had all goddamm day on clear straightaways but decided to pass when we got to a curve.
The usual.
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