Round 3 of Covid vs the timeline (2022 episode)

[some seeing eye]

Covid is always going to evolve. The new variants may get through the 5 or so major vaccines or resist the about 4 scientifically proven treatments.

We have built up an amazing real time worldwide response system. Many complements are being made to the fast South African response and sharing unlike the early days in the US and China. They detected an outbreak and sequenced it in just a few days, and they are sharing the clinical response daily.

It is expected the world will get the severity of symptoms, and vaccine-previous infection resistance to the new strain, in about 1-2 weeks. The mRNA vaccine companies are saying they can develop a variant vaccine in 1-2 months, but then it has to be tested and approved in clinical trials.

Right now the media is selling Omicron sensation and panic for pageviews. We just need to wait for the science.

Meanwhile, while people rained a lot of criticism on the Burning Man CEO, she did a stellar job putting together a medical advisory team, and discussing options with the Nevada health department and the BLM. She also saved the bacon in the form of staff, and has, with staff, built an online universe, and a year around network of video events.

On the negative side, we have hard resistance to vaccination and masks as a form of identity and politics in some US localities. There are similar movements in small segments in Europe. France and Germany are examples.

The planning discussions probably included proof of vaccination, negative test result, country restrictions, and kids/no kids. It certainly included a lot of discussion with ESD Medical, and our medical contractor which has been CrowdRX.

Goldenvoice has resumed, and EDC Las Vegas appears to have been successful.

The event has a master schedule - timeline. Usually it starts off with ticket presales, which gives the organization budget to keep staff, and hire late Winter-early Spring event staff. So the whole ticket sale vendor, design, and contract has to happen now, or has happened.

Then all the permits, BLM cost negotiations, negotiations with the tribes, negotiations with Nevada, negotiations with the Nevada highway patrol, Outside Services, and negotiations with our lovely BFFs in Pershing, has to happen.

The departments have to spin up and the theme camp-placement has to begin.

They did get some experience compressing the timeline last year, which is useful.

Then we had a board member in Gerlach stop all the Covid precautions for philosophical reasons. I would say to that, shit or get off the pot. The board members could retire comfortably, but that is not a good reason to kill the goose laying the golden eggs of community.

If you are interested in the science look up https://twitter.com/trvrb. He is active and useful. This dude has been a key scientist in the response, and won a MacArthur in the latest round for viral genomic bioinformatics. (His lab is hiring)

In the picture below, derived from @NextStrain, red is the Omicron escapee. Because one does not look like the other, likely either one person got an early alpha or beta, was chronically sick for months, it mutated, then became contagious, or a closed isolated group got the alpha or beta, incubated it in their group for months, it mutated, then it escaped as Omicron.

Afrikaburn is still on, but watch their FB.

Red in this diagram is Omicron. Each line branch is an evolutionary change in the virus genome.

bedford omichron nextstrain.jpeg

[Canoe]

Wow!
It came from a clade that far back!

Given how Delta has/had squeezed out almost everything, amazing that a clade from that far back be anywhere in the wild to become those variants now grouped as Omicron. Apart from 'chronic then mutated' or 'incubated in an isolated group then mutated', could or should there be some missing clades between its ancestor clade and Omicron? Clades undiscovered (now lost?) and then pushed out by the current Omicron clades? Not possible; possible; plausible, likely, or not relevant?

[art walsh]

The emergence of a potentially troublesome variant is concerning. I'm sure BORG is saying "Oh boy - contingency plan 23 (or is it 24)"

As to timeline. I would think that with 2 cancellations, plans and contingencies were discussed and can be re-activated if needed.
I'm sure discussions and tentative agreement were made with many of the involved parties - BLM, vendors, ticket suppliers, ticket handler, counties, tribe etc.
As we get closer to what is the key date for many of us - TICKET SALES DATES - some changes may be necessary. The no refund policy may have to change. If there is a no admittance from xx country due to virus, refunds could be made if profile had a mail address to that country or something along that line. Refunded tickets could go into OMG sale.

On a side note, it would be nice if blanket e-mails would include some meaningful info (beside requests for $$). such as: changes is how PNP camps will be handled. Target dates for when ticket sale dates will be issued. Any changes to vehicle rules i.e. ebikes and other vehicles.

[some seeing eye]

The placement timeline has dropped on the Journal so things are looking up!

[Canoe]

Also looking up: Active Cases, Serious/Critical Cases, New Cases and Deaths, with New Deaths just starting to look up too.

Sometime during the recent days where eplaya wouldn't load for me, the total U.S. Deaths went up above 800,000 Deaths. Depending on how the new variant goes, it doesn't look like it will get above 1,000,000 by the end of the year. But total U.S. Deaths will probably top a million by the anniversary of the first domestic case in the U.S., which is given as February 17 in Oregon. Currently showing one case for every seven people, and one death for every 413 people. With ~9.6 million known Active Cases (who are capable of infecting others), that's around one in every 35 people who are infectious.

Some anecdotal accounts that Thanksgiving brought a number of extended gatherings in small towns, where inevitably the conversation turned to who knew someone who died from Covid-19. Seems that the towns that didn't believe didn't protect themselves, so they got hit more. One family & friends Thanksgiving dinner came up with 10 friends, family or neighbours died. A sombre silence, then giving thanks for 'god providing the knowledge of vaccines and the people who found and developed the vaccines'. I saw this morning, reports that vaccinations in the U.S. appear to be on an upswing.

Another issue starting to appear. With the occurrence of skeptics and antis often running rampant through extended families, there's the increasing reports of Covid running rampant through those families leaving multiple deaths in its wake. This is often enough taking out both mother & father, and sometimes even multiple mother & father pairs through the extended family. Plus the financial hardship for the medical treatment, and with fewer earners, plus those who survived but have ongoing medical consequences and resulting further financial consequences. So who is going to look after all of their children... And it's more common in small towns, were it's hitting multiple families. So along with fewer extended family members and with fewer dollars, there's also fewer families in the community able to take in surviving children. This is possibly becoming a family shortage.

Seen going around: "Santa has been reading your posts all year. A lot of you are getting science books."

[FlyingMonkey]

Slightly off topic (shocking, I know) but folks are always talking about the economic impact that Burning man has on the surrounding communities as a talking point for rebutting detractors. Has anyone seen any data on what the lack of a Big Burn for the last 2 years has actually had?

[art walsh]

I haven't seen any current estimates.
But, if you look at the 2019 survey, the average burner spent $745 in NV.
using 60,000 that's approx. $45 million. sales tax along would be approx. $3.4 million
Airport impact not included.

[Token]

I got three things to say …

Darwinism, from a big picture perspective, ain’t a bad thing.

Viruses like to evolve to more contagious and less virulent, until they are endemic.

Juplaya will get bigger and bigger and bigger

[Canoe]

...
Darwinism, from a big picture perspective, ain’t a bad thing. ...

Vaccine mandates are causing teachers who don't believe in science to quit, nurses who don't believe in medicine to quit, and cops who don't believe in public safety to quit.
I'm failing to see the downside to this.

[FIGJAM]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQyDxt6-UdI

[Token]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQyDxt6-UdI

I played the video and YouTube served up an add for Toenail Clipper for the Elderly - and they were basically modified bolt cutters …

FML.

[BBadger]

...
Darwinism, from a big picture perspective, ain’t a bad thing. ...

Vaccine mandates are causing teachers who don't believe in science to quit, nurses who don't believe in medicine to quit, and cops who don't believe in public safety to quit.
I'm failing to see the downside to this.

^^-- this

[Canoe]

I keep seeing variations on

• Is it just me, or are others seeing that it looks like they modified the virus to only kill people who didn't get the vaccine?
  - and -
• As it's largely Republicans who didn't get the vaccine, it must be Democrats who modified the virus to kill Republicans.

There isn't a forehead slap large enough to cover all that encompasses.
You're a contender for Here's your Darwin Award.
If you don't qualify as you had children already, whether you live or die, remember you may be promoting your children onto the recipients list, while you may still qualify for the Herman Cain Freedom Award.
It's one thing if your stupidity ends up costing you your own life, but it's another when it takes the life of your children, your neighbours, your co-workers or your their children.

With having kept somewhat of an eye on the pre-Covid-19 ongoing adjustments in planning regarding pandemics in response to SARS, West Nile, H1N1 & others going around, I never once thought that a pandemic propagation/prolongation vs. survival would turn into an IQ or Critical Thinking event...

[Token]

I never once thought that a pandemic propagation/prolongation vs. survival would turn into an IQ or Critical Thinking event...

That there is a signature worthy quote.

[some seeing eye]

Beyond Darwinian reproductive rate is cognitive function post Covid infection: https://www.npr.org/2021/12/14/10642210 ... have-learn

[Canoe]

Beyond Darwinian reproductive rate is cognitive function post Covid infection: https://www.npr.org/2021/12/14/10642210 ... have-learn

Related symptoms have been turning up from spring 2020.
A friend brought this study to my attention, concerning how SARS-CoV-2 may be getting into the brain.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100046
(That's interesting. The other day the DOI took me to the full study at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lana ... 7/fulltext
Now the DOI links to a summary at sciencedirect.com)

(~edit: cherry picked points...)

• Furthermore, our findings of ChP infection and viral neurotropism suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may invade the central nervous system by blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier disruption.
• The first proposed neuroinvasive pathway of SARS-CoV-2 was anterograde axonal transport via olfactory neurons. A recent study detected SARS-CoV-2 virions in nerve endings of olfactory mucosae.
• The olfactory nerves and bulbs were not preserved because of cerebral softening.
• We observed a severe pneumonitis with massive cerebral atrophy and oedema and morphological features of hypoxic encephalopathy – a comorbidity that might have contributed to the poor outcome of COVID-19 – secondary to prolonged seizures and respiratory failure.
• Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 infection of the ChP observed in this study could have disrupted the blood-CSF barrier, thus enabling neuroinvasion. In support of this hypothesis, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in the CSF of a patient with COVID-19-related encephalitis

But I'm going to spoil it with

It's interesting the uncertainty in how it got into the brain for this Pt..
Early on in the pandemic, there was some discussion that included that autopsies on some SARS survivors, when they scummed for other reasons ~10 years later, found they had SARS-CoV in the olfactory nerves leading all the way into their brain. I don't recall if the virus showed in other areas of the brain.
I don't know how much weight should be given to a brain infection potentially via blood-CSF barrier when they don't have results for the olfactory nerves. And how much of the brain damage was due to Covid-19 vs. a comorbidity. Did the comorbidity cause a blood-CSF vulnerability that resulted in its SARS-CoV-2 brain infection? Did the infection first get into the brain via olfactory nerves due to high level of ACE2 receptors, then attack the blood-CSF from inside?

While interesting, given this is a study with a study size of one, with a potential comorbitidy that questions what caused various brain abnormalities, and a big unknown for olfactory nerves as an infection path, I'm not sure how medically 'interesting' this study actually is.

Then there's Black-Baby Syndrome...

Black baby in Brazil is hospitalized, yet there's no lab test done for the suspected diagnosis. She's hospitalized five times before she's tested for Covid-19. She succumbs.

There are frequent claims that black people in Brazil get inferior attention, consideration and treatment when they present at a doctor's or hospital. Despite a hospital visit resulting in hospitalization,

Viral meningitis was suspected, although no specific laboratory testing was performed to confirm the diagnosis.

And she had three more hospitalizations following that, before during a fifth hospitalization they tested for Covid-19. It's unkown if there were other prior visits to doctors or hospitals that didn't result in hospitalization.

It would be interesting to have the dates of her various visits. And to compare those against when Brazil was vs. wasn't allowing Covid-19 testing, and when their president was incredulously claiming there were no cases.

It also leaves me curious about consent for an autopsy.

[Tyrion]

I haven't seen any current estimates.
But, if you look at the 2019 survey, the average burner spent $745 in NV.
using 60,000 that's approx. $45 million. sales tax along would be approx. $3.4 million
Airport impact not included.

That hurts

[Canoe]

This Omicron is really speeding up. Becoming dominant so fast it's driving new case counts up in multiple regions around the U.S., and around the world.
Too many people without vaccines, and too many with vaccines who think it's a magic shield so they can do what they want.
I wouldn't be placing any bets on a regular BRC in 2022.

In related news, yet another doctor has been tipped over the edge.
Posted in r/QAnonCasualties on December 6, 2020, by an infectious disease doctor.
https://www.reddit.com/r/QAnonCasualtie ... has_ended/
(Worth the whole read. There was no bolding nor underlining, but I'm adding some to aid a quick scan)

My career of treating patients has ended

After more than three decades as a physician, the Q maniacs have succeeded in driving me out of providing care to patients. I, like many of my colleagues, am moving into medically-adjacent work, where we can continue to apply our training and decades off knowledge without ever having to come in contact with sick people.

I've been able to deal with the years of patients who attended Google Medical School, and the hours wasted explaining things such as why cinnamon cannot be used to treat diabetes, or that garlic and beetroot can't treat HIV. And Lord save me from essential oils.

COVID and Q finally proved to be the one of amateur "experts" that was too much for me. The horrific deaths are beyond what you might imagine. They emerge almost unrecognizable to their families. Since June, I have never seen a horrible case of someone who was vaccinated. I have seen people struggling to breathe through lungs that have hardened to near uselessness, begging us in their ignorance to give them the vaccine now. We can tell, almost without fail, which ones will die when they come through the door of the ICU, but we do everything in our power to keep them alive - BIPAP, ECMO, ventilator - knowing we are stretching out the inevitable. We use paralytics with ECMO and ventilators, then ease them off to see if they can function. And as the drugs wane, the look of terror emerges, the tears. We try to calm them, to swallow our desire to scream at them: This is your fault! This didn't have to happen! Often, their spouse or their uncle or neighbor is nearby, dying along with them. And we work hard for those rare cases where we can pull them back from the edge.

I could deal with all of that. What I can no longer handle is the screaming, not from the patients, but from the families. They are not screaming in anguish, or in recognition of how their foolishness has led them to this point. No, they are screaming at me. Because, you see, I am part of the global conspiracy to commit genocide. If only I would give 10,000 mg of Vitamin C - even though the body can only absorb a maximum of 100 mg a day, with the rest creating the world's most expensive urine - they would be saved. Or hydroxychloroquine. Or ivermectin. Those have never been studied, they assure me, and when I tell them they have been, they snap that I don't know what I'm talking about. I want, oh god I want, to tell them that if we are the ones responsible for killing their loved ones, then why the hell have they brought them to the hospital? Why throw them into our clutches? I know the answer: They know it is all lies. But their egos are so huge they cant bring themselves to admit it.

My breaking point came three weeks ago. I dealt with a particularly horrible case. This was a husband and father, 38 years old. A wife, two daughters, one son. All of age to get vaccinated, none vaccinated. If you could have seen his face, and the ravages left by both COVID and the time he spent prone on his stomach. An enormous clot kept reforming in his leg, and we had been forced to amputate his foot in hopes of keeping him alive. When he was awake, the look of terror in his eyes, the crying, the pain. It was nothing new. But the begging, over and over, "Don't let me die." And "Give me the vaccine." All I could tell him is "We won't let you" - although I never said we might not have any choice in the matter. And I told him, repeatedly, it was too late for the vaccine.

He begged me to bring in his family. A nurse called them, because they had never come to the hospital. They refused to wear masks, and so would not be admitted. The nurse told the wife that her husband was likely dying, and was begging to see them. All she cared about was masks. She would only come if she and her daughters didn't have to wear any.

The nurse came to me and told me the wife wanted to speak to me. I got on the phone and she ordered me to cure him with ivermectin and vitamin C & D. I explained to her, those do not work, they have been extensively studied and the amount of ivermectin needed to treat even mild COVID would kill a human being. Once again, I was told I was ignorant. I asked her to come down to the hospital, to bring her children, to at least wait outside. Somehow, she agreed.

The nurses were all busy, and I took over the role they usually perform, comforting the dying. I sat beside the man's bed. Through tears, he rasped out sounds I could vaguely understand as a question. I guessed at what he was asking, and assured him that yes, his family was coming. He was so frightened, and I could tell he knew death was unavoidable. I'm not religious, but I knew he was, and I talked about the comfort of Jesus as I held his hand. About a minute later, he coded. We tried to save him, but there was nothing to be done. He died.

Twenty minutes later, I heard from a nurse that the family was here, that they had made a ruckus down in the lobby demanding to be let upstairs without masks, and had been thrown out of the hospital. I consulted with a few colleagues who agreed to cover me so that i could speak to them in the parking lot. I took the elevator down, and asked security to point out the family that refused to wear masks. Fortunately, they had not left.

I stepped outside, went to the wife, and identified myself. I told her that I was sorry, that we had done everything we could, but her husband had passed a few minutes earlier. I did not manage to get the words of the sentence fully out of my mouth when I felt the fist strike my face and heard the screamed words "You murderer!" I fell backwards, tripped, and plopped onto the pavement, the back off my head striking asphalt. I vaguely heard the words being screamed about ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine and god knows what else. I heard "you could have saved him if you listened!" I tasted blood from the top of my lip. It took a moment to know it was seeping from my nose, which she had broken. My mask was getting wet, and thus useless. Security grabbed her. They were getting ready to call the police, but I knew if they did, I would become the next national target for the Q maniacs. I told them to just put her in her car. I wasn't going to press charges. I went back to the hospital.

I started looking for a new job the next day. I will never treat a patient again.

Thank God.

Another quote: "America. The greatest country in the nation."

[some seeing eye]

That's a very sad example. I point back to my original post.

[lucky420]

This Omicron is really speeding up. Becoming dominant so fast it's driving new case counts up in multiple regions around the U.S., and around the world.
Too many people without vaccines, and too many with vaccines who think it's a magic shield so they can do what they want.
I wouldn't be placing any bets on a regular BRC in 2022.

In related news, yet another doctor has been tipped over the edge.
Posted in r/QAnonCasualties on December 6, 2020, by an infectious disease doctor.
https://www.reddit.com/r/QAnonCasualtie ... has_ended/
(Worth the whole read. There was no bolding nor underlining, but I'm adding some to aid a quick scan)

My career of treating patients has ended

After more than three decades as a physician, the Q maniacs have succeeded in driving me out of providing care to patients. I, like many of my colleagues, am moving into medically-adjacent work, where we can continue to apply our training and decades off knowledge without ever having to come in contact with sick people.

I've been able to deal with the years of patients who attended Google Medical School, and the hours wasted explaining things such as why cinnamon cannot be used to treat diabetes, or that garlic and beetroot can't treat HIV. And Lord save me from essential oils.

COVID and Q finally proved to be the one of amateur "experts" that was too much for me. The horrific deaths are beyond what you might imagine. They emerge almost unrecognizable to their families. Since June, I have never seen a horrible case of someone who was vaccinated. I have seen people struggling to breathe through lungs that have hardened to near uselessness, begging us in their ignorance to give them the vaccine now. We can tell, almost without fail, which ones will die when they come through the door of the ICU, but we do everything in our power to keep them alive - BIPAP, ECMO, ventilator - knowing we are stretching out the inevitable. We use paralytics with ECMO and ventilators, then ease them off to see if they can function. And as the drugs wane, the look of terror emerges, the tears. We try to calm them, to swallow our desire to scream at them: This is your fault! This didn't have to happen! Often, their spouse or their uncle or neighbor is nearby, dying along with them. And we work hard for those rare cases where we can pull them back from the edge.

I could deal with all of that. What I can no longer handle is the screaming, not from the patients, but from the families. They are not screaming in anguish, or in recognition of how their foolishness has led them to this point. No, they are screaming at me. Because, you see, I am part of the global conspiracy to commit genocide. If only I would give 10,000 mg of Vitamin C - even though the body can only absorb a maximum of 100 mg a day, with the rest creating the world's most expensive urine - they would be saved. Or hydroxychloroquine. Or ivermectin. Those have never been studied, they assure me, and when I tell them they have been, they snap that I don't know what I'm talking about. I want, oh god I want, to tell them that if we are the ones responsible for killing their loved ones, then why the hell have they brought them to the hospital? Why throw them into our clutches? I know the answer: They know it is all lies. But their egos are so huge they cant bring themselves to admit it.

My breaking point came three weeks ago. I dealt with a particularly horrible case. This was a husband and father, 38 years old. A wife, two daughters, one son. All of age to get vaccinated, none vaccinated. If you could have seen his face, and the ravages left by both COVID and the time he spent prone on his stomach. An enormous clot kept reforming in his leg, and we had been forced to amputate his foot in hopes of keeping him alive. When he was awake, the look of terror in his eyes, the crying, the pain. It was nothing new. But the begging, over and over, "Don't let me die." And "Give me the vaccine." All I could tell him is "We won't let you" - although I never said we might not have any choice in the matter. And I told him, repeatedly, it was too late for the vaccine.

He begged me to bring in his family. A nurse called them, because they had never come to the hospital. They refused to wear masks, and so would not be admitted. The nurse told the wife that her husband was likely dying, and was begging to see them. All she cared about was masks. She would only come if she and her daughters didn't have to wear any.

The nurse came to me and told me the wife wanted to speak to me. I got on the phone and she ordered me to cure him with ivermectin and vitamin C & D. I explained to her, those do not work, they have been extensively studied and the amount of ivermectin needed to treat even mild COVID would kill a human being. Once again, I was told I was ignorant. I asked her to come down to the hospital, to bring her children, to at least wait outside. Somehow, she agreed.

The nurses were all busy, and I took over the role they usually perform, comforting the dying. I sat beside the man's bed. Through tears, he rasped out sounds I could vaguely understand as a question. I guessed at what he was asking, and assured him that yes, his family was coming. He was so frightened, and I could tell he knew death was unavoidable. I'm not religious, but I knew he was, and I talked about the comfort of Jesus as I held his hand. About a minute later, he coded. We tried to save him, but there was nothing to be done. He died.

Twenty minutes later, I heard from a nurse that the family was here, that they had made a ruckus down in the lobby demanding to be let upstairs without masks, and had been thrown out of the hospital. I consulted with a few colleagues who agreed to cover me so that i could speak to them in the parking lot. I took the elevator down, and asked security to point out the family that refused to wear masks. Fortunately, they had not left.

I stepped outside, went to the wife, and identified myself. I told her that I was sorry, that we had done everything we could, but her husband had passed a few minutes earlier. I did not manage to get the words of the sentence fully out of my mouth when I felt the fist strike my face and heard the screamed words "You murderer!" I fell backwards, tripped, and plopped onto the pavement, the back off my head striking asphalt. I vaguely heard the words being screamed about ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine and god knows what else. I heard "you could have saved him if you listened!" I tasted blood from the top of my lip. It took a moment to know it was seeping from my nose, which she had broken. My mask was getting wet, and thus useless. Security grabbed her. They were getting ready to call the police, but I knew if they did, I would become the next national target for the Q maniacs. I told them to just put her in her car. I wasn't going to press charges. I went back to the hospital.

I started looking for a new job the next day. I will never treat a patient again.

Thank God.

Another quote: "America. The greatest country in the nation."

Gosh dang it Canoe, it’s to damn early for tears and cracked heart's. Good morning

[Canoe]

Gosh dang it Canoe, it’s to damn early for tears and cracked heart's. Good morning

Sorry Lucky.
(I've been seeing similar N. & Dr. decisions and Pt. accounts for over a year.)

I haven't confirmed this, nor its range, but it got posted around twitter on December 20th.
Good news for some.
Not so good news for those that can't take the vaccine, or lack critical thinking skills or who got fooled.

Latest CDC data by vaccine status:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k

In related 'news'...

"It'll be over my dead body."
-- Sarah Palin on the likelihood of her getting the COVID vaccine

Also from twitter,

Just took my daughter to her Kindergarten orientation & we had to show a vaccine passport for her admission. Let that sink in. The Govt is forcing kids to show vaccine passports.

Wait... wait my wife is telling me this has been going on for a century & is how we eradicated polio.

After winning in 2020, for 2021's Social Distancing Champion, on track to win again is Bigfoot.

[Canoe]

Sigh
I've been hoping that if Omicron proves to be milder, it becoming dominant might be a good thing by it out competing more severe more deadly variants. Only Omicron is too infectious. Milder, but more infections -> so more hospitalizations -> overwhelmed hospitals mean more deaths from Covid-19 and other untreated or under-treated diseases or conditions.

Projected:

• Dominant > 90 % in most parts of the world by Dec 31st.
• Three billion infections in three months. As in, two years worth of infections may occur in three months.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 4662505481
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 2191985671

And so much for unvaccinated counting on their "natural immunity" of a prior infection.

First #Omicron US death in Texas—in an unvaccinated man **reinfected** after previously having #COVID19. New convalescent bloodDrop of blood studies of survivors (of Alpha, Beta, or Delta variants) show little to no neutralization defense against Omicron.

[some seeing eye]

There are probably not any critical decisions burners have to make in the next 10 days having to do with the Labor Day campout. Relax, chill, be with loved ones!

As we get into January we will know more about the severity of Omicron and immunity.

Meanwhile, these are the latest forecasts for the US and by countries burners might fly from.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... &tab=trend

https://www.healthdata.org/sites/defaul ... rica_2.pdf

[Canoe]

There's enough Omicron cases elsewhere to get a good idea.
In many areas, cases are doubling every 1.5 to 2 days.
Omicron has 2.4X the hazard (likelihood) of causing REINFECTION vs primary infection. #Delta is 0.7 (less likely).

Florida: cases are up 500% and hospitalizations are up 20% and DeSantis is MIA.

Omicron seems less severe, but is more.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status ... 7861761026
UK data: Omicron is as severe as Delta for cases that would be infected by Delta, and infects people who would not be infected by Delta (due to immunity of prior infection or vaccination). Those cases are less severe. By Simpsons paradox Omicron seems less severe, but is more.

Also the medical definition of "mild" continues to mean "not hospitalized".

Both so-called mild cases and long covid that can follow can be devastating and life changing.

A word of warning. I’ve had Long Covid for 12mths and counting. In this time, I’ve been diagnosed with neurological sleep apnoea, encephalitis, sensorineural hearing loss, tinnitus dysautomnia and POTs, and myopericarditis. I was never hospitalised. My case is mild.
https://twitter.com/fearnley_k/status/1 ... 2216707074

And it's hitting children worse

https://twitter.com/Antonio_Caramia/sta ... 39/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Antonio_Caramia/sta ... 8398862339

And lingers in the air after you leave the room.

COVID19 can transmit between people even without each other’s physical presence—in poorly ventilated areas.
Case study: infected healthcare worker leaves room they're sleeping in. Two others enter to rest, both get infected.
Poor ventilation & no masks.
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/ ... 4894986244

[Canoe]

Omicron
And it's hitting children worse...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/27/health/c ... index.html

A five-fold increase in pediatric admissions in New York City this month. Close to double the numbers admitted in Washington, DC. And nationwide, on average, pediatric hospitalizations are up 35% in just the past week.

... "I think we are going to see more numbers now than we have ever seen," ... "Cases are continuing to rise between Christmas gatherings and we're going to continue to see more numbers this week from that," ... "Now we're going to have New Year's on top of that this coming weekend, with more people getting together -- more exposures and then those numbers will continue to climb," ...

And while the Delta variant infected more children than previous variants, Omicron is looking even worse, ... "What's concerning on the (pediatric) side is that, unlike the adults -- where they're reporting for the number of adults getting infected relatively low numbers getting hospitalized -- what we're really seeing, we think, is an increasing number of kids being hospitalized," ... "So that is a concern to us, especially with those that can't be vaccinated under 5 or those that are not fully vaccinated or not vaccinated at all that are eligible over 5. ...

While Spinner sees little evidence the Omicron variant is causing more severe disease in children than previous variants did, he's also seeing no evidence it's milder. ... "They're needing oxygen. They're needing some other assistance. Even if they're just really dehydrated, needing IV fluids, most of these kids that we're admitting for Covid are kids that have respiratory issues -- that they need oxygen and they need other support. ..."

"I can tell you that virtually all of our kids that are hospitalized have either been unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated -- maybe having received one dose but not having the second dose and not having the full protection from the vaccine," ...
...
And the affected children are not any sicker than they were when previous variants circulated. But there are definitely more kids with symptoms there than before, she said. "We have just seen a striking increase in the both volume -- the number of tests that are positive, and the percent of tests that are positive," DeBiasi told CNN in a telephone interview. "We've had up to almost half of the tests -- 48% of the tests -- to be positive and that's much, much higher than in prior waves where it was more on the order of, at the most, 17%. ...

Owensby is worried about multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C. "We can see it as early as two to three weeks," she said -- but most cases start turning u eight to 10 weeks after kids are infected. MIS-C is marked by inflammation of the heart and other organs and it is usually seen in children who were not terribly ill with Covid-19. "The vast majority are asymptomatic," Owensby said. "The scary part was they were totally normal kids before that. They did not have underlying disease. They were perfectly healthy kids who showed up in heart failure and shock."

"You could have even mild symptoms -- a runny nose, a slight cough or even a fever, like any other respiratory virus," Owensby said. "You have to watch for symptoms -- exhaustion, an inability to play," she added. Symptoms can be subtle, but MIS-C is serious. "That is the thing about kids. They are fine until they are not. Then all of a sudden they are critically ill," Owensby said.

[Canoe]

A few jumps...

Global Daily New Cases: over 1.5 million (1,596,451)
.

Global Daily New Cases - Dec 29, 2021 - over 1.5 million.jpg

.
U.S. Daily New Cases jumps to 465,670.
.

U.S. Daily New Cases - Dec 29, 2021.jpg

With the U.S.A. number 1 in the world, for:
- Total Cases, 54,656,866
- New Cases, 465,670
- Total Deaths, 844,272
- New Deaths, 1,777
- Active Cases, 12,404,303
- Serious, Critical, 17,182

Much is owed to those - well to those of them still alive - who:
- think Covid-19 is fake
- won't get vaccinated (that's won't, not can't - there are some legitimate exemptions)
- won't social distance
- won't wear a mask
- won't wash their hands
And in particular, to those who mislead people in the above.
The above have grossly expanded the growth and consequences of the pandemic in the U.S.A., and continue to reap expanding consequences by prolonging its strength over time.

[The Rod]

theres that good ol american exceptionalism for ya.

gotta be number one!

[Canoe]

Global Daily New Cases: over 1.5 million (1,596,451)
U.S. Daily New Cases jumps to 465,670. ...

A few days with lower numbers was hopeful. Then on 2021-01-04 we're looking at:
- Over two million (2,163,256) Global Daily New Cases.

- The U.S. Daily New Cases had a 515,250 day, followed by a 567,696 day.
- That 567,696 Daily New Cases day is one new case in 588 people.
- In those two days, that's one new case for every 308 people.
- Active Cases: 15,288,098. One in every twenty-two people in the U.S. are infected, and contagious.
- To date, U.S. Total Cases is over fifty million (58,040,720). Or, one case for every six people.
- One death for every 392 people.

[Canoe]

That last

- Over two million (2,163,256) Global Daily New Cases.
- The U.S. Daily New Cases had a 515,250 day, followed by a 567,696 day.

means that the U.S. had 26.2 % of the Global Daily New Cases.

Latest Daily New Cases is Global 2,533,699. The U.S. with 703,887, has 27.8 % of the Global Daily New Cases.
U.S. Active cases up to 15,952,549. At least one in twenty-one people in the U.S. are currently infected and contagious.

[Canoe]

The prior U.S. Daily New Cases had a slight upwards correction to 712,617, the top record. Then the latest 24 hours at 751,512 beats that new record. Together, the two day New Cases for the U.S. was 1,464,129. That's 28.7 % of the two day Global Daily New Cases of 5,085,007.

Leaves the U.S. just slightly shy of 16 million Active Cases, with 15,959,008 Active Cases.

Global Total Cases just nudged over 300 million (300,688,344). The U.S. is showing 59,564,116 of those (19.8 %).