Is BM too big?

dragonfly Jafe · Post by **dragonfly Jafe** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 8:18 am

One can find numerous examples of discussions (both on Eplaya and in the real world) that go like this;

"It used to be really cool at BM when you could (insert favorite activity that is now banned or heavily regulated)".

some examples; guns, vehicles, catapults, wind vehicles, no perimeter fence, fewer cops.

The standard reply is;

"yeah, but that was when there were only XXX people, it's different now that there are 30,000 of us!"

Has BM gotten too big for it's own good? Will it inevitably implode in a bureacratic big bang? Or can the event we have so loved over the years be retained without it having to change beyond recognition first?

What have we received in exchange for this (besides more neighbors!)? Do people think BM is better now than 5 years ago? 10 years ago? Is bigger automatically better?

If BM could be reverted to what it was like 5 years ago, but only by limiting ticket sales to 10,000 (for example) through a random lottery, would you support that?

If BM could be doubled in size (60,000 people) but only through even more "big brother" presences (more LEO, more registration, more rules, more limits, no vehicles, etc) would you support that?

(obviously bored at work...) Jafe

Zane5100 · Post by **Zane5100** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 8:27 am

Burning Man will continue to mutate and evolve. More rules will be applied as time goes on (for reasons of safety, economy, or regulatory procedure).

1st timers this year that are flushed with the excitement of this year saying "this is the best experience ever!" will be grousing about "how it's all changed and was better when..." five years from now.

Just something I've noticed over the years.

Alpha · Post by **Alpha** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 8:39 am

I believe this is the real motivation behind the regionalization efforts. The man in the hat surely recognizes that BM has drifted significantly from its Cacophony roots, and there's no way to get back to that with a single event that's so popular. By moving BM to regional events, some of those (particularly in lenient states) will be more like the original event.

Bob · Post by **Bob** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 9:10 am

stuart · Post by **stuart** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 10:31 am

for all of you who feel jaded, come by camp hi! this year and get one of my 'last year was better' t-shirts. Only those with a sense of humor (especially regarding one's self) need apply.

headquarters · Post by **headquarters** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 10:40 am

stuart wrote:for all of you who feel jaded, come by camp hi! this year and get one of my 'last year was better' t-shirts. Only those with a sense of humor (especially regarding one's self) need apply.

that is so funny. Jaded people make me laugh. i would love to wear one of those shirts. IMHO (which isn't much as i've only gone 2 times before) I like the extreme large size.. it's the same reason i like a big city, i personaly don't mind the rules. I realize they are all fairly necesary. I like being able to walk around for an entire week and not see everything. I would probably like a regional event also but for differant reasons. That would be more of an intimate event. I love the fact that this isn't an intimate event (for the most part) I LOVE THE PEOPLE!!!

Rob the Wop · Post by **Rob the Wop** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 10:54 am

In exchange for those pesky anarchistic roots, we've gained a thriving rave culture.

Now if we can just triple the size, I'm sure we can do away with that whole dangerous fire and artcar thing. We could then probably get some awesome gigs set up with some large name DJs and bands. Heck, we might even be able to have a Summer Break MTV at Black Rock.

Wait a second. That was sarcasm, wasn't it?
And y'know, I was going to quit that.
Guess it's time to get one of those jaded old-timer T-shirts, there Stuart.
Can you make one that says, "You missed it when it was good."

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 11:05 am

As someone who recently did the "XXX people can get away with different things than XXXXX people can" I'd like to add that I think it applies a lot more widely than BM. Frinstance, the ways behavior are guarenteed in any group of people changes as it gets larger. As I recall my Jared Diamond (yeah, I know he was referencing someone else) small hunter gatherer groups are on their best behavior because everyone's related and they need each other as protection from other small hunter-gatherer groups. Larger "tribes" rely on negotiations by persons related to both persons in an arguement--i.e. persons who have a steak in both their living. Larger groups still get police types or enforcers by the local despot.
ON the other hand, when you read about small towns enforcing behavoir by gossip and ostracism, laws and police sound like they might be an improvement--if overseen by a proper citizens review board.
And women do seem to be better off in large cities than in small hunting gathering groups. With lots of specific exceptions.
I don't want to say "bigger is better" and as sort of cacophonist fringe member I might have been happier w/BM back in the old days. But changes over time and with population growth don't in general seem to be a bad thing. I dislike bullying, and that seems to be a common default mode in small independent groups.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 11:06 am

stuart wrote:for all of you who feel jaded, come by camp hi! this year and get one of my 'last year was better' t-shirts.

Stuart, that's the coolest thing I can ever remember hearing you say.

Dork · Post by **Dork** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 12:07 pm

I'm not sure how much size really has to do with what we can get away with or how "cool" it is. There's a big time element here as well. If there were 2,000 people doing the same stuff every year there would still be more cops, more regulations, etc. Every time someone got seriously hurt or the perception that it could happen came up, more regulations would appear. Someone would realize things are easy to steal and cops would realize there's people there to bust.

The same shit every year will start getting boring no matter what. The same people who are complaining about how much things have changed would be complaining how boring things have become if nothing new had been added to the mix.

There is no way to bring the past back. It's gone. Go to smaller regional events or hold your own if you need a nostalgia fix.

Love the t-shirt idea!

Chai Guy · Post by **Chai Guy** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 12:50 pm

1986 = 20
1987= 80
1988 = 150-200
1989 = 300+
1990 = 800 (last year on Baker Beach)
1991= 250
1992 = 600
1993 = 1,000
1994 = 2,000
1995 = 4,000
1996= 8,000
1997= 10,000
1998= 15,000
1999= 23,000
2000= 25,400
2001= 25,659
2002= 28,979
2003= 30,586

My guess is that Burning Man has reached a kind of homeostasis. I don't think we will see the numbers rise much above 30,000. Just for comparison here are some other numbers to compare these with

Sturgis "Bike Week" (motorcycle rally) 2002 = 450,000

dragonfly Jafe · Post by **dragonfly Jafe** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:15 pm

[quote="Dork"]I'm not sure how much size really has to do with what we can get away with or how "cool" it is. There's a big time element here as well. If there were 2,000 people doing the same stuff every year there would still be more cops, more regulations, etc. Every time someone got seriously hurt or the perception that it could happen came up, more regulations would appear. Someone would realize things are easy to steal and cops would realize there's people there to bust.

This is kinda what I was getting at - Let's assume that I decided to start my own "desert getaway week" somewhere, and tell ~1000 friends about it. Would it be possible today to create a new event that had more of the "values" people seem to be missing? Or are those days "gone for good" post 9/11? (or maybe those days never were that good to begin with but our collective memory keeps improving?)

If the time element dominates (a BM of only 2000 people today would still be heavily monitored because it has been around for so long and is so well known), starting a new "event" in a new location could help (for a few years at least). If the size element dominates, then reducing the size would help.

So what do people think, is the important factor the length of time an event has been around (regardless of size) or is there a critical threshhold below which we could escape most attention? Or is it something else (like bad publicity) or a combination of all things?

Another way to look at this; If 30,000 members of a "saintly" group got together for a week on public land (absolutely no drugs, injuries, bad experiences, or anything else objectionable), how many LEO would there be and how many "rules" would there be compared to BM? Fewer? The same? More? How about LNT? Would such a hypothetical group do better? The same? or worse? (and why do you think so?)

regards, Jafe

III · Post by **III** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:18 pm

>>Would it be possible today to create a new event that had more of the "values" people seem to be missing?

based on empirical evidence - yes.

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:19 pm

if "saintly" means "right-wing christian" they may get away with not supervision what so ever. Good for plotting anti-Planned Parenthood strategies.

III · Post by **III** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:21 pm

>>critical threshhold

depending on where you go, though, that critical threshold can be as low as 50 people (though also as high as a couple hundred). and you've got a point with the time thing: you've gotta keep moving - once you've gotten a a couple visits for leos (regardless of whether you're breaking laws or not) you'll be under scrutiny if you stay in the same place.

Chai Guy · Post by **Chai Guy** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:25 pm

Would such a hypothetical group do better? The same? or worse? (and why do you think so?)

While not exactly meeting your criteria The Rainbow Family meets on public land every year. Their numbers range from 10,000 - 30,000 people and based on all reports that I have read law enforcement is greater and far more excessive. Again, this isn't the best comparisson as RF does not believe in asking for permits and operates under the assumption that our right to gather on public lands is guaranteed in the Constitution.

http://www.welcomehome.org/rainbow.html

KellY · Post by **KellY** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 2:34 pm

One thing I'm sure of, there's no going back. Even if Burning Man cut the size of the event by two-thirds, it would still be under the scrutiny of the cops, the Nevada health inspectors, the BLM, etc. New, small events that are still under the radar are the only way to recapture what "ye olde dayef" , I am thinking.

ronski · Post by **ronski** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 3:30 pm

It's harder to come in under the radar nowadays because the radar is so much more sensitive and deployed all over the place.

Like Chai Guy says, the event will probably reach a homeostasis, but whether that's 30K, 40K or more is questionable.

The biggest limiting factor is the fact that it's held miles from no where in a hot, dusty, harsh environment with a LNT policy. If they started having indoor plumbing, showers, and dumpsters LOTS more people would attend. Keep it hard and primitive. These conditions also help fundamentally shape the experience for the people and create a sense of community. As an old teacher once told me, "the best blueberries grow on the top of the mountain. They're not any sweeter or juicier-- they're the best because it takes more effort to get them."

I think the event/org has much more danger of being shut down, whether by the LEOs, federal agencies, insurance companies, or trial lawyers, for getting really out of hand and getting whacked for it. Either the RAVE act comes into play, or someone dies (like Katherine Lampman) and BMORG gets sued for everything they have, or whatever. Does anyone remember Woodstock '99? Think they'd get permits to hold it again without "significant guarantees" that crowd control, public health issues etc would be much better addressed?

dragonfly Jafe · Post by **dragonfly Jafe** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 3:53 pm

For what it is worth, my opinion is that the event will continue to grow until it implodes from it's own size, then it will be over. How many more years? certainly not more than 10, and I would say less than 5 years. Maybe only 1-2 years more. If it does manage to make it longer than this it will be due to massive changes that radically alter the event beyond recognition...(hoping I am VERY wrong...)

So assuming that BM does eventually end, what will people do in September? Visit their families? Do lawn work? Attend another festival? Create a new festival? Bitch 'n Moan 'bout the "good old days"? Jafe (will still be avoiding work one way or another)

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 4:04 pm

I suspect it will go on until the price of gas kills it.

My nominee for the limiting factor.

Other possibilities:
Larry Harvey's death, or death of other key LLC member (I doubt it, the LLC itself will most likely go on.)

Nasty accident or other negative event followed by hidious, huge lawsuit. (Once again the LLC innoculates to some extent.)

Something else engages the mind of the participants. (All of them?)

the well is running dry

In all of these scenarios I suspect that the existence of a large cadre of participants who have volenteered and worked on theme camps will argue for some form of continuation--although maybe not as regional burns.

I also am not sure if the ~30,000 is a celing or a plateau. I suspect that with another economic boom attendence might increase. Or to phrase another way, I suspect that with a general increase in discretionary income, attendence might increase.

III · Post by **III** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 4:17 pm

>>less than 5 years

you realize they've been saying that for the past 8 years or so?

imminent death of the burn predicted, film at 11:00.

my suspicion is that it will probably hold steady at its current population, progressivly getting more mainstream and comfortable for a variety of reasons.

Chai Guy · Post by **Chai Guy** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 4:24 pm

I think the event/org has much more danger of being shut down, whether by the LEOs, federal agencies, insurance companies, or trial lawyers, for getting really out of hand and getting whacked for it. Either the RAVE act comes into play, or someone dies (like Katherine Lampman) and BMORG gets sued for everything they have, or whatever. Does anyone remember Woodstock '99? Think they'd get permits to hold it again without "significant guarantees" that crowd control, public health issues etc would be much better addressed?

BLM- We are the single largest user and cash infusion to their organization, I don't think the shut down will come from them.

LEO (local)- These guys are just extensions of the local politic which also appreciates (for the most part) our cash infusion to their economy.

Lawsuits (insurance companies/lawyers)- I find it hard to beleive that any judge is going to listen to a case involving an injury as the result of having your big toe run over by a giant pinky bunny slipper in the middle of the desert.

Rave Act- ??? Since it's been under the supervision of the BLM for so long, I find it difficult (but not impossible) to believe they could invoke this now.

Death- Although I believe Kathy Lampman is the first person to have died on the playa, several people have been lost their lives or been seriously injured as a result of attending the event. ( 6-10 people die every year at Sturgis, a week long motorcycle rally). I've heard the magic number for the event to be cancelled is 7 deaths in one year, why 7? I have no idea.

In fact I think the biggest danger currently facing BM's extinction is the porrta potty issue:
http://www.cieux.com/bm/portaPotties2001.html

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 4:49 pm

Chai Guy wrote: Death- Although I believe Kathy Lampman is the first person to have died on the playa, several people have been lost their lives or been seriously injured as a result of attending the event. ( 6-10 people die every year at Sturgis, a week long motorcycle rally). I've heard the magic number for the event to be cancelled is 7 deaths in one year, why 7? I have no idea.

I believe the formula is "died on the playa during the event," something that has a faint wifff of weasel to me. And maybe Sturgis is an apt comparison. Who cares if Bikers die--they are scum. (I developed this hypothesis watching how people drive around motorcycles, when I was a pillion passenger.) We might not matter to the larger public who could bring the "shut down" pressure to bear.

Or is that "bare"?

ronski · Post by **ronski** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 4:55 pm

Chai's comments:

I tend to agree with all you indicate, except maybe with the disbelief that some rogue lawyer won't go to court over a Art Car incident or something. If a lawyer senses deep pockets anything is arguable.

While I think there may be MORE danger to the event from these issues, from what I've seen, BMORG does a FINE JOB in acting as a shield. They get to be the (((SNARF))) "adult" supervision at the playground. Which is exactly what they should be.

Nice link to Rainbow. One of the things apparent from glancing over their stuff is that they actively pursue a line of "no one is in authority here" as a sort of defense. Which doesn't seem to cut it with the BLM or others.

III · Post by **III** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 5:22 pm

>>Which doesn't seem to cut it with the BLM or others

my experience with this is that the leo's will happily offer to start carting people away until the remainees start to comply. as far as i can tell, you have the option of trying to stay under the radar (though i'd still recommend being as law abiding as possible, because at some point a leo will show up) or going the permit route. either route requires you to make some compromises.

III · Post by **III** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 5:23 pm

>>BMORG does a FINE JOB in acting as a shield

my experience is that it depends on what you think they should be shielding. i will admit that they seem to be rather deft at avoiding legal entanglements.

Chai Guy · Post by **Chai Guy** » Wed Mar 31, 2004 5:33 pm

i will admit that they seem to be rather deft at avoiding legal entanglements

.

As I've stated before your ticket is basically a "party tax" collected by a private agency (Burning Man LLC) and given to the government (after they skim a nice piece off the top and pay for the infrastructure stuff like the potties, the fireworks, the man and the Rev. Billy).

In other words, going up against the LLC would be like going up against the punk little brother of the biggest, meanest kid in your school. You might be able to shut him up, but then you'd have a much bigger problem on your hands.

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:08 pm

30,000! I didn' realize. Obviously it's not too big for them.

robbidobbs · Post by **robbidobbs** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:25 am

Chai Guy wrote:In fact I think the biggest danger currently facing BM's extinction is the porrta potty issue:
http://www.cieux.com/bm/portaPotties2001.html

Thank you Chai for bringing this up. 2004 was a weird year for shit. Several issues if alone could have stopped us, were it not for clever brains working the problem(s): JotS got a permit for "land use" of the sewage 11 days before the event. This meant that instead of spending 6 hrs driving to and from Truckee Meadows Water Treatment Plant, they processed the sewage on site, and trucked it to the non-edible garlic farms in the area. Major time savings. There was 3X more sewage this year by friday than last year, and their creativity saved the Event. Another issue was a 50% newbie population, and some major education had to get underway quickly. I have the Citizenry to thank for spreading the word. Hypothetically, if someone wanted to end BM, they have only to attack the potties, and we're done.

pippster · Post by **pippster** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:45 am

Port A Potties are the weak point then?

So in the end, the BM did get too big eh?

sorry - the play on words was just staring me in the face :shock: [/quote]

Is BM too big?

Is BM too big?

I like it big.

Is BM too Big?