Do the math: over 50% of tickets went to scalpers

[stinkyfoot]

I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012.

So my thought is that people are incorrectly focusing on the actual BRC population growth curve of each individual year to talk about the perceived demand for tickets. But the fact is that each individual year's population only represents people who actually made it to the playa that year. To get a real idea of the potential demand for tickets you'd have to consider the total population of individuals who have gone to BRC in the last decade or so and who might want to go in the future, in addition to people who've never been and want to go. My guess is that this number is much higher than any one year's attendance numbers.

Basically, when people have the course of nine or seven months to buy tickets, the unknown number of people who'd want to go at the beginning of the year decide they aren't going to go after all without having ever bought a ticket. This year, all those people bid on tickets if they paid attention and knew about the lottery, not because they knew for sure they were going to go, but because they thought they might go. That is the reason for inflated number of ticket bids.

But take heart, because if that is the case, there should be some free tickets to be had as ticket holders' various hardships or simple ennui over the course of the year forces them to give up their opportunity to go home.

[Dr Dilemma]

I'd like to address the notion that has been cited from The Powers That Be that they only see 1% of the total tickets sold on scalping sites RIGHT NOW and so the situation really isn't as dire as everyone thinks. Now let's think about this: if I'm a professional scalper I'd be crazy to post my tickets for bidding until after all the face value tickets are gone. Add to that a smart scalper wouldn't dump all their tickets at once but rather trickle them out much much later in the year for maximum profit. Ask anyone who has dealt with ticket sales and scalpers and they will confirm that no scalper dumps all their tickets at once, it would flood the market and depress prices. I've seen the 30% success rate amongst camps confirmed from many sources, with Marian telling us only 20-25% of the people people needed to bring projects to the playa got tickets. So the question is how many actual burners who aren't going got extra tickets for friends. In my group, the number is 0. I've heard from other groups that they've got a couple, but I've yet to hear from ANY group that they have any significant number of extra tickets. If there are other group leaders who have had a different experience and you have enough, or close to enough or hell even "enough to get by" PLEASE tell us. I'd LOVE to hear some good news. But if things are really as bad as folks think then pretending the scalper problem isn't an issue is gonna make for a really really horrible burn.

[Killbuck]

.

[vargaso]

I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012.

So my thought is that people are incorrectly focusing on the actual BRC population growth curve of each individual year to talk about the perceived demand for tickets. But the fact is that each individual year's population only represents people who actually made it to the playa that year. To get a real idea of the potential demand for tickets you'd have to consider the total population of individuals who have gone to BRC in the last decade or so and who might want to go in the future, in addition to people who've never been and want to go. My guess is that this number is much higher than any one year's attendance numbers.

Basically, when people have the course of nine or seven months to buy tickets, the unknown number of people who'd want to go at the beginning of the year decide they aren't going to go after all without having ever bought a ticket. This year, all those people bid on tickets if they paid attention and knew about the lottery, not because they knew for sure they were going to go, but because they thought they might go. That is the reason for inflated number of ticket bids.

But take heart, because if that is the case, there should be some free tickets to be had as ticket holders' various hardships or simple ennui over the course of the year forces them to give up their opportunity to go home.

That's a very good point. Just anecdotally, my cousin and his partner have always bought tickets as soon as they go on sale, and end up selling their tickets in July or August about half the time. (The did not receive tickets this year, so don't blame them, ha!) I'm sure lots of other people do the same. I hope!

[Savannah]

I don't think that anyone can accurately predict or even ballpark the number of people seriously trying to go to Burning Man in 2012.

So my thought is that people are incorrectly focusing on the actual BRC population growth curve of each individual year to talk about the perceived demand for tickets. But the fact is that each individual year's population only represents people who actually made it to the playa that year. To get a real idea of the potential demand for tickets you'd have to consider the total population of individuals who have gone to BRC in the last decade or so and who might want to go in the future, in addition to people who've never been and want to go. My guess is that this number is much higher than any one year's attendance numbers.

Basically, when people have the course of nine or seven months to buy tickets, the unknown number of people who'd want to go at the beginning of the year decide they aren't going to go after all without having ever bought a ticket. This year, all those people bid on tickets if they paid attention and knew about the lottery, not because they knew for sure they were going to go, but because they thought they might go. That is the reason for inflated number of ticket bids.

But take heart, because if that is the case, there should be some free tickets to be had as ticket holders' various hardships or simple ennui over the course of the year forces them to give up their opportunity to go home.

That is a really interesting point, one that hasn't been made-to-death. (That's pretty hard to do these days). Someone who wanted a decent chance of going this year has had to "shoot first and ask questions later", and while I think there are many causes for the # of ticket bids, I think the Maybe Attendees being forced to act probably had a significant effect.

I would say on any given year, my friends are 50/50 split into two camps. On one side we have the die-hards who have created or found stability; those for whom it would take a true crisis to prevent attendance (these are the ones with vacation hours and few or no dependents, a little cash to themselves, and/or a really understanding family and a determined streak a mile wide). On the other side you've got friends with brand new jobs or no jobs, or young children or other unpredictable responsibilities, and these are the friends who say "maybe, maybe, maybe" until June of every year when you get the Firm Answer.

A lot of the Maybes I know did not historically buy tickets early--I have only one friend who was always seemingly selling her ticket. But this year the Maybes knew 1) they had to buy now and unload later, and 2) that this would be easier than ever to do.

[BeachBum]

I'll agree that the growth curve could be much higher this year ... but we are talking the difference between 5% and 300%... 55,000 tickets vs 170,000 requests. I don't think you can justify anywhere near 170,000 actual participants wanting tickets no matter how you look at it.

I agree that 170,000 people seems pretty far fetched. My official stance is I dunno, but just to give another scenario:

There could have been 50,000 requests for Tier-1, 50,000 for Tier-2, and 40,000 for Tier-3. The Tier-1 requests would have a 7% chance of success. The Tier-2 requests would have a 22% chance of success. The Tier-3 requests would have an 65% chance of success. Then the average chance of success is about 29%.

My take, based on numbers that have been released: 1.7 tickets were requested average per transaction, there were way more transactions than the LLC expected, and the success rate seems to be about 30%.

40,000 tickets times 3 (only 1/3 success rate)= 120,000 requests.
40,000 tickets times 1.7= 68,000 requests.

With what we do know I'd guess between 68,000-120,000 requests, total. I'm not going to try to parse tiers because we have been given zero information that would let us do that. This is of course a wild guess, because without knowing the hard number of requests made there is simply no way to know. ...

Actually, Eric, 5280MeV, it's fairly easy to parse tiers, from some minimal sampling. About 10 people put reasonably reliable info on the $390 and $320 tiers on these boards. The percentage of $240 tickets can be wildly estimated by the low end of the numbers posted here. Nearly no one got tickets for less than their max price bid, so the numbers can be done per tier. The $390 and $320 tier estimates are fairly close since the data is fairly good. The $240 estimate is just a ballpark, since the difference between a 5% win rate (200,000 tickets requested) and a 10% win rate (100,000 tickets requested) is huge.

$390 - 70-80% got tickets - 15,000 tickets - about 22,000 tickets were requested
$320 - somewhere around 50% got tickets - 15,000 tickets - about 30,000 tickets were requested
$240 - jack got tickets, significantly less than 10% - 10,000 tickets - well over 100,000 tickets were requested

This means about 50,000 tickets were requested in the upper two tiers, with a range of between of about 45,000 and 65,000. And, a massive number, 100,000+, of $240 tickets were requested. A lot of the 100,000+ $240 tickets were probably by newbies just taking a flyer on getting a ticket, and scalpers trying to maximize profit.

[Eric]

Actually, Eric, 5280MeV, it's fairly easy to parse tiers, from some minimal sampling. About 10 people put reasonably reliable info on the $390 and $320 tiers on these boards. The percentage of $240 tickets can be wildly estimated by the low end of the numbers posted here. Nearly no one got tickets for less than their max price bid, so the numbers can be done per tier. The $390 and $320 tier estimates are fairly close since the data is fairly good. The $240 estimate is just a ballpark, since the difference between a 5% win rate (200,000 tickets requested) and a 10% win rate (100,000 tickets requested) is huge.

$390 - 70-80% got tickets - 15,000 tickets - about 22,000 tickets were requested
$320 - somewhere around 50% got tickets - 15,000 tickets - about 30,000 tickets were requested
$240 - jack got tickets, significantly less than 10% - 10,000 tickets - well over 100,000 tickets were requested

This doesn't take into account that anyone who entered into a higher tier was automatically entered into the lower ones. That's why I ignored the tiers- all we know is that 10,000 1st, 15,000 2nd & 15,0000 3rd were awarded. I still think that there isn't a "missing" or "scalpered" 70%, but that everyone only averaged 1/3rd, and that 2/3's got no tickets at all.

I actually thought about my numbers- if roughly 70,000 people entered the drawing, averaging 1.7 tickets ea, that would put the requests at 120,000 tickets- 3 times the number awarded. You'd end up with only 1/3 of the people getting a ticket (roughly 23,000 entries, or 40,000 tickets)- our current situation, without having to have hundreds of thousands of newbies or scalper cartels gaming the system.

Again, any guess is just that- an "I pulled this out of my ass number"; the LLC hasn't released any numbers on the amount of people who entered, without those numbers there is no way to guess how the tickets were distributed.

[BeachBum]

This doesn't take into account that anyone who entered into a higher tier was automatically entered into the lower ones. ...

Eric, sorry, but that was not actually done, probably because then the 100,000+ people who bid $240 would have been even more shut out. Check the thread on "Did you win tickets for less than your max bid" for info if you don't believe me. I think your number of 30% is also high, so many of the bigger camps, whose people probably had a lot of bids in at $240, reported way lower percentages. I believe that my numbers are very reasonable estimate to what actually happened.

[Eric]

Ah, see the difference is you believe your numbers are a reasonable estimate & I admit that mine are just guesses. Unless the LLC releases the actual amount of tickets requested, there are no reasonable estimates. There are guesses, wild guesses and pretend-I'm-not-guessing guesses.

[Dr Dilemma]

Ah, see the difference is you believe your numbers are a reasonable estimate & I admit that mine are just guesses. Unless the LLC releases the actual amount of tickets requested, there are no reasonable estimates. There are guesses, wild guesses and pretend-I'm-not-guessing guesses.

A really great point here. The only thing we all seem to agree on is that around 25-30% of the folks that wanted tickets got them. How much the other 70% went to newbies, scalpers, speculators or friends and family no one really knows for sure. The party line at the BMorg, which I've seen published and in private correspondence, is that "There is no reason (yet) to believe that half the tickets went to scalpers. Less than 1% of tickets has shown up on scalping sites." (And as many folks who have dealt with scalpers will tell you, you won't see tickets on the sites now, they will trickle out AFTER the final sale).

So what IS the number? What percentage DO the scalpers have? Who knows. It's somewhere between 70% and 1%. But that's the point, no one at the organization really knows. I think it's just ridiculous, though, to think it's as low as they are trying to believe it is. There's an old adage "plan for the worst and hope for the best" and I just don't see that happening. They seem to be stuck in the "denial" stage. I think I've moved past anger and bargaining and am about ready to accept that it's looking very unlikely our camp will be going this year because we've all decided we're not paying scalpers for tickets. (But I'd love to be pleasantly surprised that some remediation is worked out)

[lemur]

scalpers? speculators ? hoarders? newbies ? illuminati ?! 'BMORG' ignorance ?

JUST SOMEONE FIND ME THAT SCAPEGOAT SO I CAN GO ON HATING!!!

You know what?
You need hate
And we need to let you hate, because we're your friends
And we want to see you happy, and healthy, and just a little bit angry

So don't hold back or hesitate
Sit back, smile, relax, and hate

Everyone needs a scapegoat
Everyone needs a whipping boy
When you find someone to hate
It fills your heart with joy

[Dr Dilemma]

scalpers? speculators ? hoarders? newbies ? illuminati ?! 'BMORG' ignorance ?

JUST SOMEONE FIND ME THAT SCAPEGOAT SO I CAN GO ON HATING!!!

I'll agree too much hatin has been going around. If it does end up that the bulk of the tickets went to virgins I'll not begrudge them, I don't "deserve" to go any more. What I think you are missing here is that we could take some action here to ameliorate the situation if we so chose. Why would we ensure that ticket prices for most people wanting to go this year are at scalper rates if we can do something to fix it?

I'd like to see solutions NOT scapegoats. There is a workable solution here, but it would require extra effort. Make all tickets sold this year will call. It would be a pain, but what we've got now is a fiasco. I know my camp would work gate shifts to help.

[lemur]

[The CO]

Why would we ensure that ticket prices for most people wanting to go this year are at scalper rates if we can do something to fix it?

Here's my proposal for solving the "scalping problem". It involves 100% community interaction, can be implemented at no cost, and shows the do-acracy spirit of BRC.

Step 1-DON'T BUY TICKETS OVER FACE VALUE.

[stinkyfoot]

This doesn't take into account that anyone who entered into a higher tier was automatically entered into the lower ones. ...

Eric, sorry, but that was not actually done, probably because then the 100,000+ people who bid $240 would have been even more shut out. Check the thread on "Did you win tickets for less than your max bid" for info if you don't believe me. I think your number of 30% is also high, so many of the bigger camps, whose people probably had a lot of bids in at $240, reported way lower percentages. I believe that my numbers are very reasonable estimate to what actually happened.

I don't believe that the tiers are significant to the number of bids placed on tickets. The tiers are significant to the odds of getting a ticket. Put simply, if you only bid on the lowest tier, you're 80,000 people competing for 10,000 tickets, if you bid on the highest tier you're competing for the full 40,000 and you're only competing against the people who chose to enter into the highest tier, so that's 80,000 minus 1st and 2nd tier people. So camps whose members mostly chose to bid on the lowest tiers would have a lower percentage of members (somewhere between 5%-10%) with tickets than camps whose members mostly chose the highest bidding tier. But really, I'm talking about a hypothetical camp with hypothetical members, it wouldn't even be like that unless the camp was big enough to be statistically representative of the larger body.

[Eric]

The only thing we all seem to agree on is that around 25-30% of the folks that wanted tickets got them. How much the other 70% went to newbies, scalpers, speculators or friends and family no one really knows for sure.

How do we know that the "missing" 70% went to anybody?

If you look at my guess above it's quite possible that only 1/3 of the people who regisistered got tickets, and that the "missing" 70% just didn't get them. That 1/3 that would be awarded was spread out amongst theme camps, newbies, scalpers, hoarders, individual campers, volunteers... not all of whom are active on ePlaya or necessarily connected to Burning Man groups, and not all of whom want to admit they got them in this over-heated atmosphere.

Every keeps looking for a "missing 70%" while ignoring the fact that the LLC said that the demand was much higher than expected. More demand= a smaller percentage actually getting tickets

[lemur]

The only thing we all seem to agree on is that around 25-30% of the folks that wanted tickets got them. How much the other 70% went to newbies, scalpers, speculators or friends and family no one really knows for sure.

How do we know that the "missing" 70% went to anybody?

If you look at my guess above it's quite possible that only 1/3 of the people who regisistered got tickets, and that the "missing" 70% just didn't get them. That 1/3 that would be awarded was spread out amongst theme camps, newbies, scalpers, hoarders, individual campers, volunteers... not all of whom are active on ePlaya or necessarily connected to Burning Man groups, and not all of whom want to admit they got them in this over-heated atmosphere.

Every keeps looking for a "missing 70%" while ignoring the fact that the LLC said that the demand was much higher than expected. More demand= a smaller percentage actually getting tickets

sooo...... the missing 70% of tickets went to scalpers?

[stinkyfoot]

sooo...... the missing 70% of tickets went to scalpers?

100% of tickets went to 30% of the people who requested tickets in the open lottery.

[Killbuck]

scalpers? speculators ? hoarders? newbies ? illuminati ?! 'BMORG' ignorance ?

JUST SOMEONE FIND ME THAT SCAPEGOAT SO I CAN GO ON HATING!!!

.

[Eric]

sooo...... the missing 70% of tickets went to scalpers?

100% of tickets went to 30% of the people who requested tickets in the open lottery.

Dammit. Why couldn't I write it that clearly?




Lemur, don't make me spank you. We both might enjoy it.

[The CO]

2burners1spanking.com

[Dr Dilemma]

Good points here, Eric. I appreciate what you've added to this conversation. Something you said made me think a bit. "LLC said that the demand was much higher than expected" Now to be fair, I don't think most people, myself included, thought the demand out prior (or I would have bought $420 tickets in December). In hindsight, what was created was a perfect situation for speculating of all sorts. Whether group knew that there was no risk in ordering tickets you weren't intending to use for whatever reason because you knew you could sell them later for at least what you paid for them, whether that be for benevolent (get extra for camp mates, friends) or malevolent (sell for max profit) purposes. So for a myriad of reasons, a good number of tickets are in the hands of people that have no real intention of going because the system just made speculating so appealing.

Whatever solution is devised, because I think we all can agree that system needs to be revamped (save for the folks that are defending the system they devised who are fantasizing that a YouTube video caused there to be a 300% increase in actual participants) we need make it impossible to speculate. This will mean some sort of non-transferrable ticket system being devised.

[lemur]

2 burners 8 cheeks ?!

[Eric]

(save for the folks that are defending the system they devised who are fantasizing that a YouTube video caused there to be a 300% increase in actual participants)

That video didn't have to cause a 300% increase- a 10% increase over available tickets (say 4,000 people) plus the other reasons you mention could easily make 70,000 people requesting tickets, at 1.7 tickets per request that's roughly 120,000 requests- 3 times as many that were available. E.g.= 2/3 of the requests get no tickets. I do think the video played a small part, I'm not sure why people keep assuming that there have to be over a hundred thousand people requesting tickets to totally mess this up.

Honestly, if "just" 40,000 people had entered the drawing at 1.7 tickets each, half the people wouldn't have gotten tickets, and we'd still be screwed. The only way it would have worked is if only 20,000 people entered for 2 tickets each.

20/20 hindsight sucks.

[graidawg]

sooo...... the missing 70% of tickets went to scalpers?

100% of tickets went to 30% of the people who requested tickets in the open lottery.

Dammit. Why couldn't I write it that clearly?




Lemur, don't make me spank you. We both might enjoy it.

oh a spanking and then the.....

no its to perilous

[The CO]

I keep hearing the word 'speculator' thrown around. It seems to be gaining traction as a replacement to 'scalper.'

Speculator (current eplaya usage):
Someone that wants to go to Burning Man, so they entered the lottery. However, there is a possibility that they (a- Might not be able to go, or (b-they bought an additional ticket(s) for some reason-significant other, camp mate, hedging bet, whatever, and as such, they may have a ticket that they are going to wind up selling for an undetermined price later.

Personally, I call those kind of people prepared and self-reliant.

[stinkyfoot]

That video didn't have to cause a 300% increase- a 10% increase over available tickets (say 4,000 people) plus the other reasons you mention could easily make 70,000 people requesting tickets, at 1.7 tickets per request that's roughly 120,000 requests- 3 times as many that were available. E.g.= 2/3 of the requests get no tickets. I do think the video played a small part, I'm not sure why people keep assuming that there have to be over a hundred thousand people requesting tickets to totally mess this up.

That's about how my math looks too.

We know that 1/3 of people who requested tickets got tickets.
The average ticket request was 1.7 per person.
And there were 40,000 tickets available.

If x= people who applied for tickets
and If y= people who got tickets

Then y*1.7=40,000 so y=23,529

so the number of people who got tickets is 23,529

and y/x= 0.33

so x=23,529/0.33

then solve for x=71,300

so that means that roughly 71,300 people wanted to go to Burning Man in January and requested tickets in the lottery.

Which doesn't seem that crazy if you consider that 56,000 went last year when the event sold out in July and that the number of people on the playa every year only represents the number of people who actually make it out there in September. I think the level of interest in the event is much higher than the number of people who actually go.

Having the lottery in January has simply given us a glimpse of the number of people who're willing to put down a lot of money for something that's nine months away and logistically, very difficult to get to. What is the total real population of BRC over all the years that Burning Man has taken place? It's not all bad because I think this lottery method actually favors people with a high level of investment in the event anyway. If you look at it that way, that means that there are 70,000 Burners in the world, and that is pretty sweet.

[Ugly Dougly]

That's it. The 4th of Juplaya tickets are all sold out.
Fucking scalpers.

[lemur]

Fucking scalpers.

[Savannah]

That video didn't have to cause a 300% increase- a 10% increase over available tickets (say 4,000 people) plus the other reasons you mention could easily make 70,000 people requesting tickets, at 1.7 tickets per request that's roughly 120,000 requests- 3 times as many that were available. E.g.= 2/3 of the requests get no tickets. I do think the video played a small part, I'm not sure why people keep assuming that there have to be over a hundred thousand people requesting tickets to totally mess this up.

That's about how my math looks too.

We know that 1/3 of people who requested tickets got tickets.
The average ticket request was 1.7 per person.
And there were 40,000 tickets available.

If x= people who applied for tickets
and If y= people who got tickets

Then y*1.7=40,000 so y=23,529

so the number of people who got tickets is 23,529

and y/x= 0.33

so x=23,529/0.33

then solve for x=71,300

so that means that roughly 71,300 people wanted to go to Burning Man in January and requested tickets in the lottery.

Which doesn't seem that crazy if you consider that 56,000 went last year when the event sold out in July and that the number of people on the playa every year only represents the number of people who actually make it out there in September. I think the level of interest in the event is much higher than the number of people who actually go.

Having the lottery in January has simply given us a glimpse of the number of people who're willing to put down a lot of money for something that's nine months away and logistically, very difficult to get to. What is the total real population of BRC over all the years that Burning Man has taken place? It's not all bad because I think this lottery method actually favors people with a high level of investment in the event anyway. If you look at it that way, that means that there are 70,000 Burners in the world, and that is pretty sweet.

Between these two posts, this is exactly what I think happened, numbers-wise. I was thinking about it this morning, not so much by dividing it into tiers & odds, but simply thinking, "Goddamn, if 60,000 people wanted to go, & all of them registered, but 20,000 people requested two tickets each--especially when they might more usually request one"--that's 1 in 3 requests (of a lowball 60,000 people) getting lucky. Not counting the pre-sale, & the fact that some people only ordered 1 ticket, whereas others gamed and might have tried for 3 or 4. I'm totally willing to believe 70,000 people want to go, but tens of thousands more than that seems more unlikely (to me).

And of course it seems even more extreme because there are still 10,000 tickets left to allocate (in whatever way) plus the Low Income tickets, and the people slowly and quietly shifting their extras around, and the few thousand that inevitably drop out once they hear it's dusty out there.