CoVid-19 and The 2020 Burning Man Event

[Canoe]

Oh man, Canoe, that ship has sailed long ago.

As I said, a simple model. What do the numbers show...

Three - count them - 3 Federal medical screeners at LAX airport are already confirmed infected ...
... how many infected people did they get in contact with for a typical 15 - 30 second interaction to get ill, while wearing protective gear? ...

Their work environment would accumulate the expelled droplets out to one metre for each person expelling. Plus touching. Then Indirection Transmission from contaminated surfaces. Whatever PPE they're wearing has to be fitted and worn properly, and then removed properly, etc., ... and they have to have designated areas for the related activity. Apparently that wasn't done adequately.

One couple travelled from the UK to Vietnam, picking it up somewhere along the way, and left a wake of infected people behind them as they travelled in Vietnam. 64 they infected?, without knowing they had it.

... Best case scenario is to slow the spread enough so our health care facilities continue to operate at capacity through this wild ride.

That slow spread is what the containment is for.

...
Now is a time to prepare for coping with the pandemic.

That was being called for weeks ago. The question back then was, how many hospitals to prepare and for what capacity. How many in the U.S. ramped up? Separate wards? Separate ACU/ICU? Separate Emerg? Designated ambulances?

Some hospitals have some capacity. Which is why there's some examples of people who needed to get tested or someone thought they coughed at the wrong time, and they're suddenly isolated/quarantined, and there's a $3,000+ uncovered bill. Researchers and Public Heath are wondering how many will skip getting checked out - to avoid the bill - and simply try and self-quarantine at home, or continuing to go to work as they're "just mild, so safe, right?" and need to pay their rent and put food on the table. People shedding viruses and infecting while in incubation without any symptoms, and a number have symptoms that are so low they wouldn't even suspect they're ill. There's a reason the World Health Organization is calling for Social Distancing measures while practising Preventative measures: wash your hands (with soap), don't touch your face, stand one metre apart, don't shake/hug nor even hand bump, etc..

Burning Man 2020: air hugs from ten feet... wind from the side...

[Canoe]

Now is a time to prepare for coping with the pandemic. The time for containment is over.

Best case scenario is to slow the spread enough so our health care facilities continue to operate at capacity through this wild ride.

Exactly!!!

WHO's T, bottom line.png

[Canoe]

Getting nasty in Italy, ... significantly too many Deaths for Confirmed. ...
If we assume that the current 631 Deaths reported represents 60% of the total deaths that the current infected population will accumulate, then with the 2.05%, the infected population size is 51,301. Which would mean an undetected infected population of 41,142 who are contagious.[/list]

The U.S. is up to 950 Confirmed and 30 deaths. That's a CFR of 3.2%. If the WHO is correct and it should be ~2.05%, then the U.S. would have in the order of 1,500 undetected infected/contagious individuals. ...

If we give the same treatment to the global External cases (non-Mainland China), the reported as of March 10 is: 1,126 Deaths + 4,298 Recovered for 5,424 Resolved, with 37,825 Confirmed, for 32,401 Active.
If Deaths represents 60% of the total deaths that the current External infected population will accumulate, with the 2.05%, the expected infected population size is 91,545. Less Reported, less Resolved, that's 53,720 undetected infected contagious individuals.

[Canoe]

...
A source familiar with the arrangements tells me that the Coachella festival will be postponed due to Coronavirus concerns and moved to the weekends of October 9 and 16.

bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-51829199

The event's organiser Goldenvoice has now postponed it until October, at the request of local health authorities.
Stagecoach, a country music festival organised by the same company, has also been moved from April to October.
Coachella will now take place on the weekends of 9, 10 and 11 October and 16, 17 and 18 October, while Stagecoach will be held on 23, 24 and 25 October.
Coachella attracted some 250,000 attendees last year, while more than 70,000 people went to Stagecoach.
South By Southwest in Austin, Texas, was called off for the first time in its 34-year history after the move was ordered by the city's mayor.

From the UK

The UK Health minister has been diagnosed with coronavirus, after developing symptoms on the day she attended an event hosted by the prime minister.
The 62-year-old, who began her career as a nurse, later tweeted that it had been "pretty rubbish but I hope I'm over the worst of it now". But she added she was worried about her 84-year-old mother who was staying with her and began to cough on Tuesday.
A second MP has been told to self-isolate due to a meeting with the Health minister.
NHS England said it was scaling up its capacity for testing people for the infection, with the number of cases set to rise.

From Italy

... in the town of Piacenza, which has had over 600 cases of coronavirus, things are much quieter. Locals who spoke to me via smartphone told me the streets are very quiet, apart from the sound of ambulance sirens.
...
Back in Bologna, Maurizio, who owns a bar and restaurant, said he was very concerned about his business and his 10 employees. "They have children, and perhaps in the next month, starting from now, salaries will be very small. It's a very, very difficult time," he said. ...

[Canoe]

numbers for the U.S.
cases, beds, supplies
www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math ... -covid-19/

[Canoe]

www.bbc.com/news/av/health-51637561/coronavirus-watch-how-germs-spread

Very short video shows contamination, and proper hand washing.

[Lightspeed]

you don't have much to worry about. It's only twice as bad as the flu. So instead of 1% dying it will be 2%. Big deal. Just don't shake hands or hug and you should be ok.

This kind of language is bonkers.

[Jackass]

I am fairly convinced the event will not happen this year. The political pressure will be too great as we see more "large gatherings" cancelled either voluntarily or by government edict. Coachella should be an interesting test case here shortly.

This outcome seems more and more a possibility with each passing day, there are a lot of events already being canceled. NBA suspended the rest of their season and the NCAA is going to do March Madness with no spectators in the stands, if they get that far.

[Sham]

Six months is a long way off. No decision has to be made for 4 months from now. I remain optimistic that everything will take place as usual.

[unjonharley]

What has happened to safety third ..Burning Man has always be dangerous .. Read the back of your ticket

[XPTom]

The 18 months I lived in the high desert was the healthiest of my life. Never got bit by a mosquito or pulled a tick off my dog. If this thing goes from bad to worse and I need to bail the desert will be my first choice of refuge.

[Token]

[edited] - Double Post.

[Token]

The 18 months I lived in the high desert was the healthiest of my life. Never got bit by a mosquito or pulled a tick off my dog. If this thing goes from bad to worse and I need to bail the desert will be my first choice of refuge.

This is solid thinking!

I’m fortunate that my climate will soon transition into what we lovingly call “crematoria” in honor of the Riddick movie.

When humidity drops to 10-15% in our parts, things clear up fast.

[Canoe]

you don't have much to worry about. It's only twice as bad as the flu. So instead of 1% dying it will be 2%. Big deal. Just don't shake hands or hug and you should be ok.

This kind of language is bonkers.

I like this...

Saying the flu kills more people than COVID-19 is like saying stairs are more dangerous than man-eating tigers. Far more people die falling down stairs than being eaten by a tiger. But which one would you rather have in your house?

In some places in SE Asia, they're showing how to make & wear your own mask - in large groups.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2SjV3mXwXY

[Canoe]

... If this thing goes from bad to worse and I need to bail the desert will be my first choice of refuge.

If enough west coast people head for the hills, we may start seeing emergence on the east slopes of the coastal mountains of displaced Bigfoot.
Most will likely think it's just the hippies getting an early start on their yearly migration to Burning Man.

[Traveller in Time]

Things will get busy in Deep Hole . . . (Second Life - BM site)

[Lonesomebri]

As my mind returns to the scene of horroring indignity at my camp last year, what I want to know, what is the transmission rate of the virus via some "free spirit's" sweaty ball sack resting on the seat of my camp chair?

[Token]

... If this thing goes from bad to worse and I need to bail the desert will be my first choice of refuge.

If enough west coast people head for the hills, we may start seeing emergence on the east slopes of the coastal mountains of displaced Bigfoot.
Most will likely think it's just the hippies getting an early start on their yearly migration to Burning Man.

We have way lots much tons of ammo for this to ever be a problem ...

[Canoe]

... what is the transmission rate of the virus via some "free spirit's" sweaty ball sack resting on the seat of my camp chair?

Well, one research paper findings was that anal swabs would be a significantly better source of samples for testing for Covid-19, as intestinal shedding of the virus was significantly higher than respiratory tract shedding. I think it was 20x to 80x? I don't think it's the balls per se that you would be most concerned about.

Some tests with SARS-CoV-2 have shown the virus viable up to six days on some surfaces.
Media got another study wrong that published the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 on a variety of surfaces as though that was the time it was viable.
And with SARS, SARS-CoV-1 was shown to be viable on stainless steel up to nine days.

CSSE Johns Hopkins dashboard and time series data release is a day behind for many reported countries. Instead of New Cases over 8,000, it's showing ~2,500. For example, CSSE Italy showing 12,462 Confirmed, when Italy's release six hours before the UTC EOD showed 15,113 Confirmed and 1,016 Deaths, 1,258 Recovered. (Italy is also showing 1,153 in ICU, with an additional 6,650 hospitalized.)

[Token]

In two - three weeks we will be where Italy is at ...

... then there is 6 to 8 weeks for the thing to peak ...

... how much food you got in that freezer?

Grub-hub much?

You r all doomed!

[Canoe]

In two - three weeks we will be where Italy is at ...
... then there is 6 to 8 weeks for the thing to peak ...

From China's reported numbers, after China hit 550 cases, it peaked 27 days later. 23 days after that on March 11, it reported active cases were down to 26% of that peak.
How do you get to your numbers?

Note, with all of the delays in developing & approving testing in the U.S., and with who was allowed to have a test, along with the continued delays in testing due to limited availability in sourcing the required testing materials, no one really knows where the U.S. is in regard to cases. The firemen who responded to the care-home had their tests delayed so long their samples were no longer valid for testing. Officials are now wondering how many of the U.S. flu deaths may have been early Covid19 deaths.

P.S.
I buy rice & lentils in bulk as the price is good. I usually have four to six months worth. Meat in fridge freezer for a month. Two if I cut portions in half (still above daily requirements). Dice it and put in in the rice or lentils, six months easy. And I've got around 80 lbs. of electrolyte powder left over from Burning Man (got a good deal online).

[Canoe]

...
Note, with all of the delays in developing & approving testing in the U.S., and with who was allowed to have a test, along with the continued delays in testing due to limited availability in sourcing the required testing materials, no one really knows where the U.S. is in regard to cases. The firemen who responded to the care-home had their tests delayed so long their samples were no longer valid for testing. Officials are now wondering how many of the U.S. flu deaths may have been early Covid19 deaths. ...

The latest release from South Korea (3.13/March 13) midnight shows 248,647 tests: 7,979 Confirmed, 222,728 negative and 17,940 tests underway and waiting results.
Since their prior report (3.12) they've completed results for 13,436 (13,326 + 110) tests. They've taken 13,649 more tests.
Top row is the prior release, bottom row is the net change.)
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mi ... 0&bid=0015

SK tests.png

From
www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html
As of March 11, 2020, the U.S. has done 13,624 tests since January 18, 2020:

• 3,903 in CDC labs
• 9,721 in US Public Health labs

Which means that the U.S. has done 188 more total Covid-19 tests by March 11, than South Korea completed in a day. South Korea's prior day was 13,416 tests completed. Also less than the total U.S. tests...

[Elderberry]

you don't have much to worry about. It's only twice as bad as the flu. So instead of 1% dying it will be 2%. Big deal. Just don't shake hands or hug and you should be ok.

This kind of language is bonkers.

Not really. Dump fired all the staff at CDC over a year ago because he thought it was a waste of money. So we're way behind in testing ability and a vaccine. But it's not much different than the flu. A bit of precaution, hand washing, avoiding crowds in contained spaces, not shaking hands, washing you hands (repeated because it's the most important) and we'll all survive. Especially if you're under 60. At 72 I'm pretty healthy, so even if I get exposed I'm optimistic that I'll survive... As most everyone will. Now stop the panic and start thinking positive.

[Molotov]

We don't need the CDC to find a cure. Leave it up to private enterprise or other researchers, The folks who develop a vaccine and patent it will get rich beyond their dreams. That is probably more efficient then a bunch of white-coated lab rats existing on the taxpayer dime.

[Canoe]

... But it's not much different than the flu. A bit of precaution, hand washing, avoiding crowds in contained spaces, not shaking hands, washing you hands (repeated because it's the most important) and we'll all survive. Especially if you're under 60. At 72 I'm pretty healthy, so even if I get exposed I'm optimistic that I'll survive... As most everyone will. Now stop the panic and start thinking positive.

It is similar to the flu, in that it shares the same Transmission paths.
And yes, the precautions you list - adding don't touch your face - are a start, but no. No you won't all survive.

The science shows it is significantly more fatal than the flu.
And it is significantly more contagious than the flu.
Thinking positive will not change that.
It didn't change it for China. It didn't change it for Iran. It didn't change it for Italy. It isn't changing things for all of the other various countries facing significantly increasing cases and hospitalized and deaths. Nor will it change it for the U.S., nor anywhere else.

And given the significant population of the United States that is informed about how to avoid the flu, yet still catch it, if those same people don't step up their prevention measures to an effective level, then take that 20,000 deaths number and multiply it by twenty to get a starting point for U.S. deaths. And flu had the benefit of lessening symptoms for many with the flu vaccine. There is nothing for Covid-19 available yet. Then that number would get increased by the increased number of people who would catch Covid-19, as it is significantly more contagious.

Do not all of the precautions taking place that are announced on the news and by Public Health sources not provide you with a clue that something different is taking place? Have you not seen the reports of what is continuing to happen in Italy, even with all of the measures they've taken? Do you think that 'thinking positive' is going to make the measures so many countries have taken irrelevant? Unnecessary? Stop imitating an ostrich or acting like you've gone senile before your time, or you may find you end life before your time. Spreading the myth that Covid-19 is just like the flu misinforms others and can lead them into unknowingly risk losing their life before their time.

As Tedros Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization said, "This is not a drill. NOT the time to give up. NOT a time for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops.".

In addition to the percentage that present with Severe symptoms, some critical and some facing death, what the WHO determined includes that previously healthy individuals with Covid-19 of Mild or Moderate severity, will suddenly have their immune system crash, go critical and many die. This includes those under 50, and it includes individuals with no prior conditions.

"Now stop the panic and start thinking positive" will not do a damn thing to prevent catching the disease and facing what your outcome will be.
Lies that it is "not much different from the flu" encourages people to ignore the warnings from Public Health, and from taking appropriate precautions. It is a disservice that could cost the lives of anyone stupid enough to be mislead.

The only thing available right now, is to prepare yourself by educating yourself on what should be done to prevent catching it.
Start with the CDC website.

• Read up on prevention.
• Read up on how to wash your hands adequately with soap (alcohol based cleaners are a distant second, for use when washing with soap is not available).
• Read up on its Transmission Paths.
• Read up on cleaning Frequent-Touch Surfaces.
• Read up on Social Distancing.
• Read up on providing home-care for someone with mild or moderate symptoms who has to isolate at home.

Be prepared to stay at home while providing entirely for yourself for a period of time, to prevent exposure during a local outbreak.

Want to know more? Many scientific papers are published, and most are NOT behind a paywall. So many that I gave up keeping up with them two weeks ago. Go read some, instead of propagating myths that are factually incorrect and may lead people to their death.

[Canoe]

oh oh

I missed this.
(twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD is one of the ones to keep an eye on. I didn't keep up.)
Places in the U.S. already switching from Containment to Mitigation.

(selected points)
In what is likely a harbinger of things to come as the number of COVID-19 cases rises across the country, Sacramento County announced Mar 9 that it is shifting its efforts to slow the spread of the virus from containment to community mitigation.
...the move is an acknowledgement that the novel coronavirus is in the community, and that trying to contain it through quarantines and contact tracing is no longer feasible.
...
With the number of COVID-19 infections steadily rising across the country and more cases expected nationwide, the discussion around containment versus mitigation is taking on new urgency. Some experts say that at this point, the coronavirus is likely in the community in many parts of the country, and containing it is no longer an option.

Therefore, the focus needs to be on measures at the population level that slow the rate at which people get infected and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

"We certainly are past containment. We have to think about aggressive steps at mitigation," former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, MD, said in an interview with USA Today. "My concern now is we're not taking aggressive enough steps at mitigation to prevent a broader epidemic."

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... mitigation

ECDC - COVID-19 Not Containable - set to overwhelm hospitals

(selected points)

• The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020.
• If the change in the slope of the curve does not take place soon, the clinical and social problems will take on unmanageable dimensions, which are expected to have catastrophic results.
• This is challenging for Italy, as there are now just over 5200 intensive care beds in total.
• In the meantime, the government is preparing to pass legislation that will enable the health service to hire 20 000 more doctors and nurses and to provide 5000 more ventilators to Italian hospitals. These measures are a step in the right direction, but our model tells us that they need to be implemented urgently, in a matter of days. Otherwise, a substantial number of unnecessary deaths will become inevitable.
• Intensive care specialists are already considering denying life-saving care to the sickest and giving priority to those patients most likely to survive when deciding who to provide ventilation to. ... Our doctors and nurses are modern heroes in an unexpected war against a difficult enemy. In the near future, they will have no choice. They will have to follow the same rules that health-care workers are left with in conflict and disaster zones.
• the most effective way to contain this viral outbreak in European countries is probably to avoid close contact at the individual level and social meetings in each country.

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9

[lucky420]

We don't need the CDC to find a cure. Leave it up to private enterprise or other researchers, The folks who develop a vaccine and patent it will get rich beyond their dreams. That is probably more efficient then a bunch of white-coated lab rats existing on the taxpayer dime.

Jared, is that you?

Hahahahaha we’re doomed

[Elderberry]

Everybody is going to die sometime, it's inevitable. Enjoy the time you have and stop worrying about it.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ ... -to-panic/

[Kimo]

[quote=Elderberry post_id=1198567 time=1583646833 user_id=26392]
If you ain't old and don't have some sort of preexisting condition you don't have much to worry about. It's only twice as bad as the flu. So instead of 1% dying it will be 2%. Big deal. Just don't shake hands or hug and you should be ok. Oh, and don't forget to keep washing your hands.
[/quote]

Uhhhhh.... how about 10X “as bad” as the flu! Stay informed.

[unjonharley]

No Sweat.. We can just live on trumps lies . pandumpic #19 .. Same as panstupidic # 45