Stock Market Mania

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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:15 pm

Zeus, we all figured that 8,000 was what you meant. I posted that california was the 11 th largest economy in the world. It's obviously the 6th. So much of what I post is a synthesis of many things that I've read. The inaccuracies creep in easily.
As far as the stock market goes, GOV is trying for postponement. They can't hope for much more. People without jobs don't qualify to take out loans. People with jobs have seen a $14 trillion loss and they've put their wallet away. GOV keeps pushing money at the banks. The banks keep hoarding it. The new money injection provisions mandate that the banks must loan the money. I doubt that the banks will find anyone who is credit-worthy who is willing to buy into a declining economy.
Here's a good technical paper; http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... count.html

Most stocks aren't worth much if the consumer is maxed out and broke. GOV is so worried about lighting a fire under the consumer that they don't worry about GOV. The foreign investors are pulling out of American assets. Lately, they're pulling out of treasuries except for very short notes. Just as investors didn't see long-term viability in many financials, they're doubting the long-term viability of GOV.

We're borrowing more to run the country than we pay to service our debt. There isn't any long-term viability in that.
GM and Chrysler are talking about a merger. Survival is the name of the game. GOV doesn't have a play-book for that game. :roll:
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

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Apollonaris Zeus
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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:43 am

Foreign markets get pummeled in weekend trading many down nearly 10%

Next week reports are due on economic statistics and the word is bad! And all indicators vic etc read high volatility.

Expecting another week of downward movement into 7,000 range, but talk is now guaranteeing bank to bank secure loans as the same action as the europeans have taken over the weekend. They say its temporary. Actions like this might have dire consequences with abuse without oversights. If that happens it could at least form a temporary bottom in the 7,000 range. But that depends more on next week reports

AIIZ

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Post by Elderberry » Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:00 pm

can't sit still wrote:Zeus, we all figured that 8,000 was what you meant. I posted that california was the 11 th largest economy in the world. It's obviously the 6th.
Speaking of Califonria, can you all please buy our bonds! :D Arnold would like it if you did. :D

JK

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Post by can't sit still » Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:17 pm

Zeus, every time that the US has a holiday that falls on a monday [recently], the ,markets turned to total shit. The PPT wasn't there to influence the market. Tomorrow is a holiday here. I won't be surprised if they have to close the market on tuesday. The counter party fallout from Lehman Bros. is crashing all over. The payout is about 91% The economy is looking less like dominoes and more like a house of cards.

At the end of the day when you get your pay, you're expected to trust GOV and the banks. Since I've never put much faith in either, I held on tight to the buck. It made sense to me :D

It appears that what was a planned controlled demolition has avalanched out of control. I don't believe that the money powers intended to destroy the bond market. That glib mofo Greenspan started using the word "recession" shortly after he turned the reins of power to the designated fall guy, Ben. I believe that a recession was the planned outcome.

This may all be part of some NWO plan for a one world power / currency. I doubt that NWO was planning quite this much destruction.
The US is completely unprepared. All the money is in electronic, not paper. There will be a large segment of the population that will feel betrayed. They will let it be known that they are displeased. I'm guessing 3 to 6 weeks for martial law.

The army was moved into the south. I imagine that they will try to evacuate non-coms to the camps. Ugly to contemplate.
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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:39 am

Well surprise, surprise. I woke up late today and didn't hear the oversea market's response to the governments stock buying and load guarantees combined with a week of losses with a general belief that there are discounted stock ripe for some upward movement.

At the time of the posting, there already seems a upward cap is forming already at the 9,000 mark. This indicates to me that this is about all the market is going to go and that investors are wary about negative news in reports due out this week on my sectors- including housing starts and consumer spending. They are not going to look good!

Right now the dows has formed a plateau is stagnant- Flat Lined!

Which means I'm not doing anything today ( I missed the buy rally this morning (I'm still recovering from my art opening last friday)) and stay in cash except for my short sell which were bought at 14,000.

AIIZ

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Mon Oct 13, 2008 11:00 am

The upper cap has fully formed and the market seems to be rebounding strong from and a profit-taking-sell-off is now highly likely.

AIIZ

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Post by Ugly Dougly » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:29 pm

I guess the sale's over.

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Post by EvilDustBooger » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:32 pm

kA-Ching !!!

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Post by can't sit still » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:48 pm

How about that. The stock market went up. Can you say sucker's rally?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008 ... RKETS.html
A couple of quotes;
"Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister and former EU president, let the cat out of the bag last Thursday when he blurted out (God bless his soul for being such a loose cannon!) that the G7 want to shut down the markets this coming week while they figure out how to deal with the crisis."
"Judging from the success rate of elected and appointed leaders in politics and economics so far, whatever they will come up with over this weekend and the succeeding week will undoubtedly be an unmitigated catastrophe. Just picture a time line from Bear-Stearns in mid-March to IndyMac in May, Freddie and Fannie,in July, Lehmann, AIG, WaMu, and Wachovia in September, the bailout package fiasco a couple of weeks ago, and then last week's post-bailout market-action, and you'll see a direct, negative correlation between official action and market performance."

And a nice word picture
"mother-sow that is the global banking elite. Mama sow is currently having a serious case of food poisoning, though. She is bleeding red ink from one end and vomiting credit from the other, and that invariably causes fatal dehydration."
WE can watch it all on TV]
Something will have to give – and the elites aren't powerful enough to make the entire rest of the world cry uncle. Their power only extends so far as their phony bag of tricks actually works to some extent, so that people are at least marginally satisfied with their lives. Once we come to the point at where whatever the elites do flat-out stops working, things will change – and we are now very close to that point!

The more they try to do, the less it works. The law of diminishing returns is spitting them right in the face. The more they try what doesn't work, the more people will lose respect for them, the less people will look to them for solutions. Accordingly, the harder they try, the weaker they get. All you and I have to do is sit there, watch them on our television screens, chuckle to ourselves - and wait"
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6762.html
Hang on tight, Dan
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Apollonaris Zeus
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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:44 am

can't sit still wrote:How about that. The stock market went up. Can you say sucker's rally?
Julian Chillingworth, chief investment officer at Rathbone Unit Trust Management in London, said the market had been due for a rally after the sell-off of recent weeks. But even if it is only a “relief rally,â€

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Post by Ugly Dougly » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:51 am

Investors have been waiting for the signs that we've hit bottom, to start buying stocks on that.

Since there are no signs, other than an upward movement, a little rise will tend to encourage more stock purchases.

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Post by mojo » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:04 am

We bought heavily Friday, went camping for the weekend and came home last night to find we made 12k yesterday. NICE birthday present!

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Post by can't sit still » Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:59 pm

"Mr. Market is a decent chap, after all. He always gives you opportunities to get out...or get yourself in deeper. After the market crashed in ’29 for example, prices gained 18.8% over the next two days."
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

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Post by can't sit still » Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:36 pm

This whole thing is moving SO fast!!! The "Bond Vigilantes" are starting to notice all the inflationary measures coming from GOV. They're pulling out of bonds to a certain extent. Even treasuries are losing. Everyone is deathly afraid of the counterparty risk.
GOV seems to be right at the edge of collapse. It doesn't look bad until you look at the CAFR sheet. GOV has enormous exposure to derivatives.
"
It is an acknowledged fact that the #1 player in the derivatives market is now government.

Thousands of US local, state, and federal agencies and funds monopolize that market internationally, writing 65% of the paper transacted therein. This has yielded several trillions of dollars of profit over the last several years."
These trillions don't show on the regular balance sheet from GOV. You have to look at the CAFR sheet to find them. California is crying bankrupt. The Govenator is doing radio ads to sell bonds. CA GOV doesn't want to touch the money in the CAFR accounts.

Treasury auditor general's bank derivative holdings report shows in table #1 that the top eight banks were holding over three hundred trillion dollars in derivatives. ** 2008 March http://cafr1.com/STATES/US-TreasuryRepo ... arch08.pdf
http://www.rense.com/general83/bur.htm
The stock market rally isn't justified considering that the job picture and the economy are falling fast.
I think that GOV was waiting to see just how much the bailout would juice the markets. It won't surprise me if they close the markets when they continue to fall.
Sooner or later, GOV is going to default. That will make a big splash :twisted:
Dan
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Stock Market going to pot

Post by wedeliver » Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:07 am

I found this to be an interesting article, hope you do also.


From the Scorched Earth Files:


Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse.

Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank
counterparties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy. Enjoy:

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, "What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it." I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.


I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don't worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer's company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.



On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government.

Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man's interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft's near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

From Portfolio: Who Got Screwed in the Wall St. Bailout?
Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won't see it included in BP's, "Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions," television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM's similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country?

Ah, the female. The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let's stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde
I'm a topless shirtcocking yahoo hippie

www.eaglesnestrvpark.com

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Apollonaris Zeus
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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:15 pm

Its the hedge funds you should be watching. They're in cash right now. Why? Because they know this is a discount market. People not big hedge funds are doing the buying. If they're in for the short term they should be OK, but as many of you and I are saying there is nothing but bad news in the reports. You can buy and hold but it might two years before you will see a profit.

We do have a weak bottom forming at 8,600 but there nothing to support it. If we break though it big time, its on into 7,000 and better place to buy for a long term.

Mojo are you still holding or are you shorting?

The market trend is still pointing down and the discount buyers that are holding are nuts!

When the hedge funds start pumping money into the market that when you jump on for the ride I don't expect that until we have hit below 8,000


AIIZ

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Post by gyre » Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:30 pm

Very interesting.
If he is the same person from Dalton Investments, here is a little more.

Mr. Lahde has extensive experience in company and industry analysis, particularly in the telecom and business services sectors. As a Senior Research Analyst with Roth Capital Partners, Mr. Lahde was instrumental in generating investment ideas and performing in-depth research on individual companies. Prior to joining Roth, he was a Research Associate for the investment bank, Gerard Klauer Mattison, where he covered the wireless sector. As an Investment Analyst at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management, he focused on analysis of distressed debt and arbitrage opportunities for hedge funds. Mr. Lahde began his investment career in 1995 at TD Waterhouse where he was a Relationship Manager in the Institutional Division. Mr. Lahde holds an MBA from The Andersen School at UCLA and received his BA in Finance from Michigan State University. He is a CFA charterholder and a member of the Los Angeles Society of Financial Analysts and the CFA Institute.

I'd like to congratulate him on his timing.

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Mon Oct 20, 2008 12:16 pm

Here's comes another "Economic Stimulus Plan" to drive up the market!

OPEC will meet to reduce output!

Reports due this week! I don't need to say that it will not be good.

I've got shortsl set to buy if the dow gets to 9300 which I expect sometime tomorrow, because I expect there is nothing but bad news on the reports due and OPEC reducing output is bad news

(+1)-(-2)=negative 1=bad news

If the congress buys the economic stimulus plan #2 without any changes from the original failed program, it will again be a waste of money.

AIIZ

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Mon Oct 20, 2008 1:02 pm

mojo wrote:We bought heavily Friday, went camping for the weekend and came home last night to find we made 12k yesterday. NICE birthday present!
Again Mojo are you still holding?

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Mon Oct 20, 2008 4:31 pm

Bernake is saying this: ...warned that the economy is likely to be “weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown.â€

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:23 am

Damn my auto-buys on shorts were set too high at 9300. I notice that there where a gazillion auto shorts set at the same mark and the houses started a major sell off so they wouldn't kick in.

I'm fucking kick myself in the ass for setting them too high. it should have 9200!!!

Its all bad new reports coming out and the government should lay its hand off the market because they aren't allowing it to bottom out! Their slowly killing the market and wasting tax dollars!

Call you congressman and tell them no more bailouts and stimulus plans!!!

We need to get below 7,000 so this market can start seeing some real cash (not taxpayer cash) be injected into it. Without the big hedge fund money, this market ain't going to get fixed for a long time!

AIIZ

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Post by can't sit still » Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:33 am

Zeus, it's expected that 10,000 hedge funds will go broke. That might take a while. As we go into a recession, I think that a smart investor should look at future earnings rather than price. Unemployment is expected to go up another 3%. The consumer drives 78% of the economy and she has put away her purse.
If a company can't produce earnings, the price hardly matters. IMHO 8)
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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Tue Oct 21, 2008 7:49 am

can't sit still wrote:Zeus, it's expected that 10,000 hedge funds will go broke. That might take a while. As we go into a recession, I think that a smart investor should look at future earnings rather than price. Unemployment is expected to go up another 3%. The consumer drives 78% of the economy and she has put away her purse.
If a company can't produce earnings, the price hardly matters. IMHO 8)
America is starting to save

Finally!

If they give me another $600 bucks that one is going into playing the stocks like the last one. I turned the last one into $2200 already!

Give me more!! more!! more!

/AIIZ

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:45 am

The overnight biz reports is taking the market down to real profit levels!

Then we can take it up back to 14,000 in five years!

I'm of course holding my shorts that I placed at 14,000. 40% of it is in the housing related industry.

I don't expect that market to see the light for another five years! Prices in this area need to come down 50% from where its at now. I will start to sell off those shorts (certain sectors first, housing last) once we get near 6,000 levels! And only when I start seeing fund money moving back in the billions! That 's the plan!

Again, I telling you if you haven't moved to cash (i told you to go cash and short at 14,000), you are going to lose a lot of money.

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Post by mojo » Wed Oct 22, 2008 5:20 pm

Apollonaris Zeus wrote:
mojo wrote:We bought heavily Friday, went camping for the weekend and came home last night to find we made 12k yesterday. NICE birthday present!
Again Mojo are you still holding?
Yes sir - those flying monkeys don't scare me. (Lions and tigers and BEARS, oh my!)

We are in it for the long haul.

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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:36 pm

mojo wrote:
Apollonaris Zeus wrote:
mojo wrote:We bought heavily Friday, went camping for the weekend and came home last night to find we made 12k yesterday. NICE birthday present!
Again Mojo are you still holding?
Yes sir - those flying monkeys don't scare me. (Lions and tigers and BEARS, oh my!)

We are in it for the long haul.
You cleared 12,000 and didn't sell off yet!

Looking at the time you first posted and were we are now, means you have lost most of your $12,000. You missed the boat and now you have to ride it out all the way to the bottom and start all over again. But you are in a good position for the long haul! When you said it was a birthday gift, I thought you took your profits and partied!

I'm hoping we get to under 7,000 before the election because we are going into a democratic rule and they have been bullish! But I'll still hold the housing, Travel and auto shorts along with the investment banking shorts I placed before they put a temp hold on placing shorts on that industry. But those were placed several years ago when the housing problems were just a rumor.

AIIZ

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Post by Toolmaker » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:11 pm

Apollonaris Zeus wrote:
can't sit still wrote:Zeus, it's expected that 10,000 hedge funds will go broke. That might take a while. As we go into a recession, I think that a smart investor should look at future earnings rather than price. Unemployment is expected to go up another 3%. The consumer drives 78% of the economy and she has put away her purse.
If a company can't produce earnings, the price hardly matters. IMHO 8)
America is starting to save

Finally!

If they give me another $600 bucks that one is going into playing the stocks like the last one. I turned the last one into $2200 already!

Give me more!! more!! more!

/AIIZ
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Post by Apollonaris Zeus » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:32 am

Greenspam just finished speaking

What he said was all negative


Dow drops

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Post by Elderberry » Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:49 am

Apollonaris Zeus wrote:Greenspam just finished speaking

What he said was all negative


Dow drops
Ya, I saw that too.

JK
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Post by Ugly Dougly » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:57 am

He just said he was wrong about the Free Market.
Mattresses suddenly gain extra stuffing all over the country.

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