The Long Cold Winter

[can't sit still]

Sue, it's great to see you back. Hope that all has been well with you. I think that everybody is getting tired of the cost of the EMU. Maybe they'll just toss it.

1durful, there is still a lot of uncertainty and speculation about a new gold confiscation. Supposedly, on page 16 of the patriot Act, there is an exact definition for bullion coins vs numismatic coins. The original gold confiscation law is reportedly still on the books.
The safest way to purchase gold is to walk in and pay cash. In Ca, there isn't sales tax if the purchase is over $ 1,000. The coin shops don't want to get burned so they check incoming metal very thoroughly. In general, the coin shops are more concerned with their reputation than a sale. It is wise to be aware of counterfeits;
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGl ... eiters.pdf
Silver is especially bad. China has flooded the market with silver dollars that stick to a magnet.
Try not to leave a paper trail if you buy metal.
Here is a VERY good article about the much underrated value of gold from a very different perspective. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/01/livin ... g-off.html

[can't sit still]

Well, as I've harped on in the past, the U/S. bond market is the key to the survival of GOV. Here are a couple of quotes from Bill Bonner;
"the US government has amassed $1.8 trillion of new indebtedness during the last 15 months."

"For one final bit of perspective, $1.8 trillion is more than double the total debt America had accumulated during its first 200 years as a nation. America's debt load did not crack the trillion-dollar level until after 1980. These days, we rack up 200 years worth of debt every six months or so."
"The initiatives that are aggravating America's runaway budget deficits are so mindless and uncoordinated they are, to paraphrase White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel, "profanely moronic."
Obama said that he's going to freeze $250 billion in a 10 year period. If we're racking up over $ 1 trillion a month, he's essentially stating "business as usual"
Investors are still buying treasuries but, short maturity only;
http://www.runtogold.com/2010/01/one-month-treasuries/

We continually hear that "this time is different" It's not;
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_0 ... 40209.html
This is a quote from that site;
"History teaches that inflation cures deflation"
More BS and crap. Not fuzzy thinking,,, just pure lies.
In our current posture, our wages will never go up. We're now competing more and more in the global market. We're sliding towards a "global mean wage" It's true that manufacturing isn't the whole economy. But, We can't subtract whole segments of the economy and expect to march happily on.

So, we get currency inflation. It MAY or may not cause price inflation. Prices have fallen Europe for the last 12 months. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 4gfroRmwGM
If they do manage to institute price inflation and DO NOT manage to institute wage inflation, it will wipe out the consumer economy. It will also murder those on a fixed income. SO, we destroy the consumers and the consumer economy so that GOV can inflate away the debt.
IF/WHEN investors lose confidence in U.S. debt, the U.S. will have to default. That would be messy.

[Rabbi Dali Rick]

Well, let's all ring around the fire and sing songs....




A friend bought some coins off the street, silver that turned out to be fakes from China. boy was he pissed luckly he only paid the guy $10. The coins were in fantastic condition, well aged and every thing...



so watch out guys, if it's too good to be true....




the rebbi

[ygmir]

yeah, I've been hearing about those......gotta carry a magnet....seems the chinese didn't think not to use steel.......dang

[can't sit still]

They're such a raging good deal that a friend of mine bought $ 300 "worth"
Ring around the fire and sing songs sounds like a good idea. As I recall, I left a big stack of wood back towards the mountain. All we need is a guitar and songbooks,,,, and people.

[can't sit still]

Well, I posted about the debt load. I found a great paper from Ty Andros
http://www.traderview.com/tedbits/tedbi ... ookPt2.pdf
" US treasury, state and municipal receipts are off approximately 10.9%, but the debts and new obligations are growing at almost double the rate of the collapse in receipts"
The doc has some great graphs. Ty claims that GOV is following the Cloward Piven strategy and purposely trying to crash GOV.
There is no possibility of escape. It would seem that GOV is aware of this.
The Cloward-Piven strategy assumes that things will all be straightened out after the crash. History says that we'll get a dictator.

There are many claims that the Illuminaughty wants to provoke a complete crash. There are claims that some power group wants to reduce the world population by 10---95%
There are very credible claims that the banking elites want to crash the whole thing to buy up EVERYTHING for pennies.
OK, so the dis-advantaged want a crash
The bankers want a crash
The Illuminaughty want a crash
The investors want a crash so that they can "short" the dollar on the way down
Our competitors want a crash
The Muslims want a crash so we get off their backs

Hmmmm, do you think that we'll have a crash?

[Sail Man]

Hmmmm, do you think that we'll have a crash?

Have?




Or are having?

Presumably like the driver here that was t-boned, I doubt we'll fare better.

[ygmir]

but, then again, the greatest opportunities are during times of crisis........

Lemonaid, is all I'm suggesting......not koolaid.........

[can't sit still]

ygmir, yes , there are great opportunities FOR A FEW ! The majority eat shit.
Here is a very good paper from Professor Hudson, critiquing Professor Bernanke.
http://www.infowars.com/deepening-debt- ... ry-afraid/
Professor Bernanke is stuck deep in a Keynesian rut. HE believes that Depression One was caused by people not having enough money. His solution is to print lots of money. The minor little sticking point is that he hasn't figured a way to get that money in the hands of insolvent people. He also hasn't reached the point in his lesson where;the people pay back the money. As Professor Hudson states : everything works out fine until just before the collapse. Bernanke just hasn't factored in the re-liquefying part, the crash part, or the repayment part.
Bernanke,Greenspan want to inflate the crap out of equities believing that this will magically restart the rest of the economy. Pulling $ 13 trillion out of our future earnings may help the banks for a little while. It does nothing for Main Street.
Professor Hudson's analysis is accurate and logical.
This page has a great picture;
http://www.businessinsider.com/we-are-so-screwed-2010-1

[Rabbi Dali Rick]

Due to the current financial situation caused by the slowdown in the economy, Congress has decided to implement a scheme to put workers of 50 years of age and above on early retirement. This scheme will be known as "R.A..P.E." (Retire Aged People Early).Persons selected to be RAPED can apply to Congress to be considered for the S.H.A.F.T. program (Special Help After Forced Termination).

Persons who have been RAPED and SHAFTED will be reviewed under the S.C.R.E.W. program (Scheme Covering Retired-Early Workers). A person may be RAPED once, SHAFTED twice and SCREWED as many times as Congress deems appropriate. Persons who have been RAPED could get A.I.D.S. (Additional Income for Dependants & Spouse) and/or H.E.R.P.E.S.. (Half Earnings for Retired Personnel Early Severance). Obviously persons who have AIDS and/or HERPES will not be SHAFTED or SCREWED any further by Congress. Persons who are not RAPED and are staying on will receive as much S.H..I.T. (Special High Intensity Training) as possible.

Congress has always prided themselves on the amount of SHIT they give our citizens. Should you feel that you do not receive enough SHIT, please bring this to the attention of your Congressman, who has been trained to give you all the SHIT you can handle.



Sincerely,

The Committee for Economic Value of Individual Lives(E.V.I.L.)

PS - - Due to recent budget cuts and the rising cost of electricity, gas and oil, as well as current market conditions, the Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off.



the rebbi

[can't sit still]

Sailman is there a hidden message in that pic. Is our economy going to have it's doors ripped off by a huge hydraulic device?

Everyone asks me for a timeline for this action or that action. Since there is so much irrationality and deception, it is impossible to make a prediction.
There is a good paper that points out an important benchmark.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-de ... 2010-02-02
"Forbes discovered the trigger mechanism in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff: The "90% ratio of government debt to GDP is a tipping point in economic growth." For 800 years "you increase it over and beyond a high threshold, and boom!" Well guess what? "The U.S. government-debt-to-GDP ratio is 84%.""
The article lists 20 things that are parts of the "trigger"

Currently, Alt-A loans are defaulting faster than sub-prime did. Of course, option-ARM and commercial RE and credit cards are melting too. The banks will blow and there isn't any way that the FDIC can rescue all of them. Their exposure is over $ 200 trillion.
Long before [hopefully] this happens, investors will demand higher interest to hold U.S. debt.
That's the story coming to Greece,,, soon Portugal. The surprising thing is that even the Swiss Franc is in trouble. Rising interest rates will wipe out some sectors of the economy. They will also initiate a "debt trap" for GOV.
When GOV reaches the magical 90% debt-to-GDP ratio, they [WE] won't be able to pay off maturing debt. When you borrow money to pay back previous loans, you have a very finite future.
Different writers are projecting different timelines for this sequence. It varies from 6 months to a decade. My guess is; about a year til default.

According to Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti, there is no escape from our debt. We're long past the benchmark that they set years ago.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/0 ... krupt.html

[can't sit still]

This is an interesting article. It calls for a financial crash caused by a food crisis.
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2 ... mmies.html
Reportedly,, the dept of Agriculture overstated food production so that prices wouldn't rise. That doesn't necessarily sound bad but, it is. You can't just "turn on" food production like a factory. It all has to be allocated and planned in advance. you have to fertilize in the winter,etc.
It's a very long article but the guy has ALL the numbers, graphs, testimonials, etc.
"For months now, the media has been reporting two distinctly, contradicting realities. One of these realities is filled with record crops and plentiful supply, and the other is filled agricultural devastation and ruin. It has been a mad, frustrating experience to read about agricultural disasters and horrendous crop losses in virtually every state combined with predictions of a US record harvest, sometimes in the same article."

He has great maps of all the counties that are disaster areas and all the counties that are major producers,,, they're the same.
"The same USDA that is predicting record harvests is also declaring disaster areas across half the Midwest because of catastrophic crop losses! To eliminate any doubt that this might be an innocent mistake, the USDA is even predicting record soybean harvests in the same states (Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Alabama) where it has declared virtually all counties to have experienced 30 percent production losses"

There is conflicting info from GOV;
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2010/01_12_2010.asp
This is the same GOV that reports bogus employment and GDP numbers.

There is also food shortage info from other sources around the world;
http://world-hunger.suite101.com/articl ... sis_part_3
It is true that drought is a big problem worldwide. I don't have enough outside info to corroborate this story. I do know that Iowa is still buried in snow. Dunno about the rest of the Midwest.
Dan

[can't sit still]

I missed one other link about soil destruction. Reportedly, China is destroying it's topsoil at 55 times the rate that GB does;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/agricu ... years.html

[Sail Man]

Sailman is there a hidden message in that pic. Is our economy going to have it's doors ripped off by a huge hydraulic device?

Jaws and their counterparts, I've used Holmatro personally, are such a joy to use. It's hard not to let out a few Tim Allen grunts when using them. Of course, when not cutting/jawing/ramming vehicles for training purposes, then you are either using them for when lives are at stake, or to remove those for which there is no hope.

The only message in the picture CSS is that I think the economy has already "wrecked". Here in my parts, the latest I hear yesterday is that Wayne county where Detroit is, is at 48% unemployment. I sure as hell hope the rest of the country doesnt fair so poorly, but.....

[can't sit still]

Sail Man, the "rust belt" became rusty because heavy industry wasn't competitive. GOV turned a blind eye towards heavy industry. Also, environmental regulations made it more expensive. GOV believed that the U.S. could "make it" on tech and finance and pharma.
The "rust belt" was the first to go.
Tech and pharma are now done in low-cost countries. U.S. finance '"screwed the pooch" by rating junk bonds as AAA. By pricing ourselves out of competition, the U.S. continues to lose market share. It follows that other segments of our economy will go the way of steel making.
Bio-tech looks good but, the results will likely extend the human life span. This will result in fewer entry-level jobs and a longer-term retirement demands.
Film is one industry where the U.S. seems to have a lead.
Industry leaders say that 26% of U.S. jobs can still be outsourced. Employment does not look good.
POX Americana has tried to maintain an empire based on belligerence. Like all previous empires, it has learned that empires cost a LOT of money. Obama's budget calls for cutting domestic spending and maintaining the military budget. Since GOV is the epitome of inefficiency and military is the epitome of waste, what does that imply prosperity for "main street"?

I was just up at the scrap yard. There was a guy there,,20s,,, nice shirt, slacks and tie. He was scrapping out $8 worth of insulated wire that he had found. Is that a metaphor for our future?

[can't sit still]

Well,,, mah fellow Burners. I would like to post some good news.
The only good news that I can think of is that, GOV will probably be able to postpone the rise in interest rates and the collapse of the bond market for several more months.

There is the threat to stability posed by the possible collapse of Greece.
"Because of the way the European Monetary Union was designed, there is in fact no mechanism for a bailout of the Greek government by the European Union, other member states, or the European Central Bank (Articles 123 and 125 of the Lisbon treaty"
http://www.gata.org/node/8317
There is MUCH talk of the contagion spreading to other countries. Now, they find that Germany is in NO position to bailout Greece. There is much talk about the European Monetary Union failing,,,, as predicted by senior wonks when it was founded.

This is a comprehensive paper talking about the necessity of maintaining the interest on debt below the GDP growth rate.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/just-h ... on-reality
It also talks about GOV doing overly optimistic projections for the economy. They compare it to a gambler in Vegas or a heroin addict. When the interest cost is above the GDP growth, there is a net outflow. The published numbers about the U.S. GDP are bogus. GOV will do anything to keep bond buyers from deserting the market.

This author and MANY other writers state that the FED will continue to print zillions of dollars in the future. Foreign investors are dumping their exposure to Mac N Mae. That leaves the FED as primary purchaser. But wait, the FED said that they will buy $ 200 billion this quarter and NO MORE.
Now, the FED says that they want to pull a $ trillion out of the economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... bl1g&pos=4
With $ trillions poured in the economy is staggering. What can be expected when $ trillions are pulled out?
This guy says that the FED will print like mad but, we'll still default;
http://trueslant.com/michaelpollaro/201 ... cy-part-4/

As I mentioned earlier, the FED is in a tug-o-war with GOV. The FED says; no more printing. GOV is committed to spending $ trillions that can only be supplied by printing.
It is presumed that the earlier bailouts were done by the FED to reimburse the European banks [ and Goldman] so that they could recoup their losses. IF the FED has recouped the losses AND doesn't want to incur any more liability, I suppose that there is the possibility that the FED will NOT print any more bucks for GOV.

Since the European banks "own" the dollar, I'm not really certain what the U.S. GOV could do to the FED if they didn't want to print. The FED may be trying to preserve the value of the dollars that they hold.

This guy really knows his stuff. He sees default as inevitable;
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/20 ... will-fail/

As y'all know, Moodys, Fitch and S&P were all guilty of rating "liar loans" as AAA. That's what got foreign and domestic investors to buy them. OK, so the major bond-rating companies are American.
Now, we hear that S&P is threatening to downgrade U.S. debt. What gives, American rating companies downgrading American debt??? It seems that they wouldn't risk this action unless we were close to default anyway. Dunno.

S&P has also warned CITI and B of A that they are NOT too big to fail;
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... s-lay.html
WE may stagger on til the end of the year,,, depends. If the Euro blows, the contagion could take it all down; The Daily Bell spells it out; the EMU is pure NWO, and NWO is losing control;
http://www.thedailybell.com/802/EU-Will ... Fails.html

If the FED supports GOV, things could drag on for quite a while. If not, a default would come quickly.

[can't sit still]

Well, Ron Paul has a few things to say;
http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2010/02 ... html#links
Also, the Chinese see the collapse of our stock market coming fairly soon. Their investment Guru is a smart cookie.... Zhu
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/edito ... /0212.html
I read writers that say that the Euro can never collapse and others who say that it could collapse in 3 months. Greece is BIG news.
The Guardian is screaming collapse here;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/fe ... c-disaster
But, GB is in far worse shape.
Lotsa headlines; "How America's two classes are preparing for a descent into anarchy"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to ... 2010-02-09
The only good news that comes to mind is that OPEC members are ignoring their assigned quotas and pumping like crazy. Gas should remain cheap for the next burn
Commercial RE and prime mortgages are crashing badly. By now, you're all very used to bad news.
Just stock up on toilet paper and bacon, She'll be right mate.

[Sail Man]

Sail Man, the "rust belt" became rusty because heavy industry wasn't competitive.

I was just up at the scrap yard. There was a guy there,,20s,,, nice shirt, slacks and tie. He was scrapping out $8 worth of insulated wire that he had found. Is that a metaphor for our future?

I believe that a big reason that companies like the big 3 here in the D are having such problems is a result of greed. High wages, from the top down, which leads to high pension's to maintain the lifestyle they've been accustomed to. The average line worker at the big 3 makes twice the average hourly rate of a Paramedic. Skilled trades like electricians and plumbers make considerably more. They are now getting smart and using an entry level wage that is more realistic. However, executive compensation, "bonuses" and stock options often take a big chunk out of the pie. I'm not sure if GOV control and oversight of those salaries is a road that should be traveled, but something needs to be done.

Health care is another big cost. Not sure if the national health care plan they are arguing about is the way to go but companies that do offer insurance could probably benefit from wellness programs, gyms, etc to prevent smaller issues becoming more costly bigger problems.

Companies outsource because it is cheaper overseas. To remain competitive we must compete with them and if that means wage concessions, then that is what it will take. Either that or say bye bye to your job.

The marina where I dock my sailboat (a 4500$ fixer-upper btw) was filled 2 summers ago with 20-30' go fast cruisers many owned by big 3 workers driving there super-sized trucks (the gold uaw sticker is a good identifier) Last summer, many were not put in the water. On my dock, half the slips were empty. Many on cradles sported for sale signs. That is my bell-weather.

Too many people live for the here, and dont plan for the future. WTSHTF they will be hurting, if not already. Hence the young man at the scrap yard. At least he was recycling something that was probably an eyesore somewhere. What is the job market coming out of college? What is it without college? Hell, even on the other end its tight. I have a friend mid 50's, CFO etc out of work and lucky to get occasional consulting jobs or short term jobs as companies scale down and/or close. He just did a loan modification on his home. I bet the thought of loosing/downsizing it weighs heavily on his mind.

Me, I'm trying to plan for a simplified life in the future. More off the grid and less dependent on outside help/utilities.

[ygmir]

Sail Man, the "rust belt" became rusty because heavy industry wasn't competitive.

I was just up at the scrap yard. There was a guy there,,20s,,, nice shirt, slacks and tie. He was scrapping out $8 worth of insulated wire that he had found. Is that a metaphor for our future?

I believe that a big reason that companies like the big 3 here in the D are having such problems is a result of greed. High wages, from the top down, which leads to high pension's to maintain the lifestyle they've been accustomed to. The average line worker at the big 3 makes twice the average hourly rate of a Paramedic. Skilled trades like electricians and plumbers make considerably more. They are now getting smart and using an entry level wage that is more realistic. However, executive compensation, "bonuses" and stock options often take a big chunk out of the pie. I'm not sure if GOV control and oversight of those salaries is a road that should be traveled, but something needs to be done.

Health care is another big cost. Not sure if the national health care plan they are arguing about is the way to go but companies that do offer insurance could probably benefit from wellness programs, gyms, etc to prevent smaller issues becoming more costly bigger problems.

Companies outsource because it is cheaper overseas. To remain competitive we must compete with them and if that means wage concessions, then that is what it will take. Either that or say bye bye to your job.

The marina where I dock my sailboat (a 4500$ fixer-upper btw) was filled 2 summers ago with 20-30' go fast cruisers many owned by big 3 workers driving there super-sized trucks (the gold uaw sticker is a good identifier) Last summer, many were not put in the water. On my dock, half the slips were empty. Many on cradles sported for sale signs. That is my bell-weather.

Too many people live for the here, and dont plan for the future. WTSHTF they will be hurting, if not already. Hence the young man at the scrap yard. At least he was recycling something that was probably an eyesore somewhere. What is the job market coming out of college? What is it without college? Hell, even on the other end its tight. I have a friend mid 50's, CFO etc out of work and lucky to get occasional consulting jobs or short term jobs as companies scale down and/or close. He just did a loan modification on his home. I bet the thought of loosing/downsizing it weighs heavily on his mind.

Me, I'm trying to plan for a simplified life in the future. More off the grid and less dependent on outside help/utilities.

nailed it.......

[can't sit still]

Well, I'll keep it short. I posted some good info on the 'survival" thread. It seems that the developed world is on an in-escapable slide. The self-destruction of western fiat currencies,,, china included,, maybe.
Here's a couple of good articles;

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=10651

http://www.thedailybell.com/823/How-Glo ... -Dies.html

This short essay is an idea that I haven't seen anywhere but my own perceptions;
There are $2.4 quadrillion in contracts denominated in dollars. Let's say that there are 4 times that total in existence. Say $ 10 quadrillion in instruments.
Those instruments only have value if they can be [eventually] redeemed for goods and services. By siphoning off the wealth of everyone and making them work that much harder, the power elite have created an "amount" of instruments that is so massive, it can never be redeemed.

By impoverishing the populace, the Illuminaughty have created a situation where goods can be created but, no one has the buying power to purchase them. The bonds, [promises of redemption] can't be redeemed without commerce. The parasites have starved the host down to a dry husk. Since the notional value of the bonds is far greater than all the tangibles in the world, the value of the bonds will evaporate.

What good is a $ trillion in U.S. treasury bonds if U.S. manufacturers produce nothing? We have unlimited production capacity and VERY finite purchasing capacity.
AFTER the holders of instruments discover that these instruments can't be redeemed, there will be very little incentive to purchase more of them.
The Power Elites may hold enormous amounts of bonds and huge amounts of tangibles but, the aggregate wages of an unemployed populace will not be able to redeem those bonds or vitalize the production capacity. After the bonds evaporate, it will be a LONG time before any new ones are issued.

As you said "it is different this time"
Considering the complexity of our society, there isn't a ready substitute for the fiat money system that wouldn't entail a big interruption. That big interruption will be the death of hundreds of millions.
Dan

[can't sit still]

Well, I'm back to the bond market. These are quotes from Weiss.
"The size of just ONE WEEK’s debt auction has ballooned to almost $120 billion — more than the total supply hitting the market in a FULL year not long ago. "
"The 2009 budget deficit of $1.4 trillion was the worst in history — more than three times larger than the previous record. "
The U.S. [WE] has fallen into a debt trap where it borrows money to pay off loans.
"The bottom line: In less than one decade, investors who trusted Washington and Wall Street were fleeced to the tune of $22.1 TRILLION! "
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/on-the-b ... se-3-37892
There is a video link in the story.

[can't sit still]

Well, the attention is focused on Greece. Ireland was willing to institute austerity measures. The Greeks are not. They're striking to preserve cushy GOV-funded jobs. Their finance minister says that they have enough money to last til the middle of March.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... AHOdlqJz5A
Capital is rapidly deserting Greece;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... un-on.html

Some claim that the attention is focused on Greece [3 % of EU GDP], when it should be focused on Spain which is actually worse,,, and much bigger. Others claim that the real focus should be on UK and US. Jim Rogers is quoted as saying that the pound would collapse within weeks,, then, he recanted;
http://www.thedailybell.com/846/Jim-Rog ... -Ruin.html
Who knows. Morgan Stanley said the same thing a few weeks ago.

The IMF is licking their chops at the thought of providing an alternative to the dollar in the [near?] future;
http://www.gata.org/node/8380
Adrian Ash seems to have good data to prove that the COMEX will run out of gold in about 8 months;
https://marketforceanalysis.com/index_a ... 0Trend.pdf

LEAP 2020 is calling for a big crunch after the second quarter;
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-42-is-ava ... a4294.html
Mish seems to agree;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... econd.html
Europe is getting messier by the day. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

[can't sit still]

I know that y'all have been waiting for a new post on this thread. Problem is, I don't have any real inspiration on which direction this is going.
For the last 800 years, any empire that reached our debt levels always collapsed. According to our numbers and percentages, we're way past the point of no-return.
BUT, the world has never previously had some of the conditions that exist today.
The "Machine Age" has produced so much wealth that it can't possibly be expressed as tangibles. The world has never had such an excess of wealth. Reportedly $ 22 trillion in wealth evaporated in the U.S. already.
"Our" central bank originated about $ 15 trillion in new "wealth" In previous times, that would have been hugely inflationary. [monetary inflation] This would have quickly resulted in price inflation in previous times. In previous times, most consumption was for needs, both private and public.
Nowadays, a very large part of our consumption is for WANTS and not needs. We've cut way back on spending for wants. SO, this huge increases in the money supply has been met by a huge decrease in the velocity of money. It seems that the velocity of money is more important than the actual quantity of money. In most areas, what should have been a big bout of inflation has actually resulted in deflation.
We have inflation is a few select areas.

With the public's newly found sense of frugality, most prices are falling. The frugality is here to stay. People see that high unemployment is here to stay.

GOV would very much like to see hyper-inflation to make debt-repayment very painless. It won't work. The currency of our main creditor is pegged to OUR currency. Our pain of repayment won't lessen to any great degree.
The consumer economy was 70% or so of the total economy. With a big part of this removed,,, with GOV revenues WAY down, there isn't much chance of any large inflation. Prices aren't likely to rise at the same time that consumption is falling off a cliff.

Much of the actions of GOV are pure Freidman economics. Big Bad Bald Ben was greatly surprised to see Freidman's theories completely fall apart. He is / was relying on both Keynes and Freidman. It's all turning to crap. It took a while but, the future is here, now.

Bernanke has done an admirable job of keeping interest rates down. BUT, the word is starting to leak out. Bond auctions are failing. The primary dealers are buying because they are required by law to buy a certain quantity. The FED has been buying like crazy. Foreign buyers are absent, for the most part.

If GOV follows the Argentine example and steals all the private wealth, I expect that it can stagger forward for a couple more years.
The end WILL come. People will run out of money. Confidence will come to an end.

This is a good article talking about how small occurrences can have very big results;
http://www.newswithviews.com/Vieira/edwin206.htm
It's hard to say what may happen in the future to destabilize the system.

[can't sit still]

Well, the stage is set. The players will repeat their parts.
The banks promote a labor or a populist gov. Since all democracies fail eventually, the script is very old. The banks prints lots of paper so the GOV can make all the plebes very happy. Then the banks retract all the money and GOV can't pay back.
Numbers from The daily Reckoning:
".and pay interest on money spent years ago. Until now, they were borrowing money that would have to be repaid sometime in the future. But today is the tomorrow they didn't worry about yesterday.

"Several countries are already past the point of no return," Bill concluded. "Even if America taxed 100% of all household wealth, it would not be enough to put its balance sheet in the black. And Professors Rogoff and Reinhart show that when external debt passes 73% of GDP or 239% of exports, the result is default, hyperinflation, or both. IMF data show the US already too far gone on both scores, with external debt at 96% of GDP and 748% of exports.""
OK, so a crash looks to be unavoidable.
This is from James Turk;
"The Federal Reserve reports M1 to be $1,716 billion as of February 15th. When deposit currency created by the Federal Reserve is added to the traditional definition of M1, M1 after adjustment is actually 170% higher at $2,918 billion. Its annual growth increases to 29.5%, nearly 3-times the rate reported by the Fed and more importantly, is an annual rate of growth in the quantity of dollar currency that is approaching hyperinflationary levels. "

I suspect that in a hyperinflationary crash, the prices of anything controlled by a monopoly would go VERY high. At the center of this would be ENERGY.... and everything dependent on energy.
Y'all might get to experience what it is like to only consume what is produced locally.

[can't sit still]

This is a very good article by Lendeman;
http://www.rense.com/general90/houd.htm
It covers the present situation very well.
This has all been done many times in many places before.
Problem is, this time it IS different.
You can't knock the entire middle class all down to lower class and still expect to have a consumer economy. If they subtract the savings and the spending of the middle class, there will be a huge drop in both economic activity and tax receipts.
POX Americana can't continue unless most social programs are eliminated to preserve the military.
Poverty, outsourcing and automation should push the jobless rate to about 60%
Bernanke said that America needs to cut way back or eliminate the social net. That will definitely make this an unhappy country.
Our standard of living is no longer sustainable on the world stage. That, combined with the parasitism of GOV and banks, is going to make us all poor
And, don't forget crime.

[can't sit still]

Well, the landscape is definitely changing. The FED lost it's appeal to block release of data on just who received the bailout money. It's position was supported by several banks. Wonder if there's any connection.
The FED doesn't want to be audited. Ron Paul's bill to audit is moving along. OK, so what's next?
"Bernanke is warning the US Congress about the danger. In a statement before the House Financial Services Committee,[3] he said that the US public debt might no longer be sustainable very soon"
OK, The U.S. treasury has about $ 2 trillion in short-term debt to refi this year.
GOV has to rely on the FED to print money BUT, GOV is pushing to audit the FED.
Big Bad Bald Ben told congressman Sherman that the FED would NOT monetize the debt.
The US needs to borrow $ 3.6 trillion this year. Bonds aren't selling.
Focus on Bernanke's words,,, "very soon"
http://www.asianews.it/view4print.php?l=en&art=17781

Jim Willie has a great article on new debt. AMAZING.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1269374400.php
He talks about the "tipping point"

The Daily Bell is talking about a "super bubble" in China. It's very easy to believe. China grew to the MAX to supply the world. The world quit buying. The excess steel capacity in china is equal to the total steel capacity in Europe. China pulled out all the stops to put everybody to work and move them into the new cities.
As the demand crashes, employment crashes.
http://www.thedailybell.com/910/Global- ... ntrol.html

If you want to read a brilliant article on the Euro, FOFOA has a great one. He claims that the foundation of the Euro will keep it from crashing.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/03/synthesis.html
Dan

[Rabbi Dali Rick]

It doesn't make a difference how cheap you make something if there's no money, there's no money...



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... YxPZ56vjys







the rebbi

[can't sit still]

Rabbi, you,re exactly right. I read that 4 million families are facing foreclosure.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases ... 00367.html
Everybody knows that Alt-A, Prime and Commercial loans are crashing. Our utilization of industrial capacity has crashed,,, gee, I wonder why.
Here's an article speculating about stocks. They argue that the last 40 years have been a bubble and that prices will return to their long-term trendline.
http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/03/ ... ig-bubble/

It's more or less unavoidable. Without buyers, what company can sustain a decent P/E ?
Current earnings in MANY companies are realized from big internal cuts,,, not from sales.
The PPT is the only thing holding up valuations now;
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... lling-Over
Wiley Coyote can explain it to you.


The second leg down is expected to hit fairly soon. The few people who have any money left won't be spending it. GOV is very close to default and they won't be spending.
I'm hoping that some Burners took this thread seriously years ago when I started it.
Ask yourself??? ; just how many of the pillars supporting society and the economy can one remove and still have a functioning economy??
Attendance at the local shooting range is 50% higher than the record from last year. I believe that I saw a poll from FOX news that stated that 80% of Americans thought that the country would collapse.
I do hope that y'all are prepared for 2 years of radical self-reliance.

[Sail Man]

I ran across this book in some online forums, not sure if it was posted here before, apologies if it was, here's the link: http://www.goinsreport.com/2009/11/alph ... -book.html


It's called The Alpha Strategy.

In the basic message that I took from it, the best hedge against inflation was to buy stores now, and I'm not talking about Abercrombie and Fitch, I'm talking about food, seeds, alternative energy, household commodities like TP, building material etc, weapons and ammo, etc etc etc. That money in the bank when and if hyper-inflation hits would be worthless to you. It is far better to stock up on tangible items that will retain their value.

CSS, you have posted many warnings. Who else will listen? I know that some, including myself, are listening. But then, I have always prepped to some degree. Every now and then it's nice to have a fire lit under my ass. Keeps my cheeks warm, and my mind focused. Thank you.

Here's some more light reading: http://inflation.us/hyperinflation2015.html

Who is the squirrel?

[ygmir]

some of us listen........