Black Moon for the 08 Burn

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myredcarpet
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Black Moon for the 08 Burn

Post by myredcarpet » Sat Jan 26, 2008 7:41 pm

OoooOOOh!

I was just checking out the moon cycles to see what was in store our firey weekend since last year's lunar eclipse was otherworldly... and found out that burn night will be the second new moon of the month. This phenomenon only happens every 2 1/2 years and is called a Black Moon, similar to a Blue Moon which is two full moons in one month. This night will be a time of great power for some of us crazii pagans, and apparently because of the ruling planet Saturn, the day will be full of contradictions, which should go right along with this year's theme! Should be interesting!!

Hmm, maybe I'll try casting a love spell on.. YOU! :shock:
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Post by erri2000 » Sat Jan 26, 2008 9:06 pm

This is what the Mayan Oracle has to say about the Black Moon on August 30th 2008

---------------------
White Crystal Wizard
Yellow Southern Castle of Giving
Earth family- Gateway
Clan- Truth

I dedicate in order to enchant
Universalizing receptivity
I seal the output of timelessness
With the crystal tone of cooperation
I am guided by the power of death
-----------------------
It is alot like sex,
Some people just don't get it

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oneeyeddick
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Post by oneeyeddick » Sat Jan 26, 2008 9:30 pm

Both My birthday and my girlfiend's were under the Black Moon.
I am 2 1/2 years older than her.
What are the odds ?
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Post by erri2000 » Sat Jan 26, 2008 9:51 pm

oneeyeddick wrote:Both My birthday and my girlfriend's were under the Black Moon.
I am 2 1/2 years older than her.
What are the odds ?


One Eye that is wild. If there are 6.5 billion people and then you divide that by how many people where born on both those days and then find what percentage that is, you might have your answer.

This is to complicated, I am going with 3 to 5 maybe? :wink:

FYI I believe that when the Mayan Oracle mentions "Death" it refers to a destruction of beliefs and perceptions and not to be taken literally.
It is alot like sex,
Some people just don't get it

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oneeyeddick
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Post by oneeyeddick » Sat Jan 26, 2008 10:08 pm

When we were cross referencing the birthdates,
the vendor told us the odds were 3.5 million to one.
I have no idea what the formula for this would be .
Where is Stargeezer ?
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Post by MikeVDS » Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:20 am

Well the chances of you being born under a Black moon are 100%. It's going to happen to some people no matter what and you happen to be one of those people. If it happens every 2.5 years then that is once every 913 days. So about one out of every 913 people were born under a black moon. So the odds of you currently dating someone who was born under a black moon would be 1 out of 913. To find the odds of you ever having dated someone under a black moon you divide 913 by the number of people you've dated. If that number is 10 for example then it would be 1 out of 91. (edit: rereading this I realize that just dividing by the number of people you've dated is incorrect. It's a more complicated statistcs formula. The one I give you is close for small numbers of people you've dated, but gets less accurate the when you get into the 100's.)

More number fun:
The odds of any random couple you meet up with having both been born under the black moon: 913*913= about 830,000. So it's about one in a million.

The odds of any couple having some weird "unlikely" coincidence, probably 1 out of 1. There are so many "unlikely" things that can happen the odds become very great for one or more of them to occur.

*I generously round all number since I figure once every 2.5 years is already a rough estimate.
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Re: Black Moon for the 08 Burn

Post by Zhust » Sun Jan 27, 2008 10:00 am

myredcarpet wrote:and found out that burn night will be the second new moon of the month.
Eh.

Last year the Man burned under a black moon. Then it burned under a nearly full waning moon.
May your deeds return to you tenfold,
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Post by myredcarpet » Sun Jan 27, 2008 10:53 am

erri2000: "FYI I believe that when the Mayan Oracle mentions "Death" it refers to a destruction of beliefs and perceptions and not to be taken literally."


I hope so!! I don't actually know a lot about all the cosmic forces behind this happening and I only choose to believe in it when it doesn't scare the shit out of me... kinda like horor-scopes.
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Post by Simon of the Playa » Sun Jan 27, 2008 11:09 am

wait a second here, are you telling me that cheese is black?

i dont think so....blue maybe, but not black.

your theory has holes in it, like swiss moon.
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Post by erri2000 » Sun Jan 27, 2008 12:29 pm

Simon of the Playa wrote:wait a second here, are you telling me that cheese is black?

i dont think so....blue maybe, but not black.

your theory has holes in it, like swiss moon.
Simon could I offer you a piece of Black Cheese from my private Mousey Mouse stock? Do you have a cracker?
Image
myredcarpet wrote:I only choose to believe in it when it doesn't scare the shit out of me... kinda like horror-scopes.
Horrorscopes! :P
What kind of day will your inner monster have. :roll:
It is alot like sex,
Some people just don't get it

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Post by Simon of the Playa » Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:14 pm

having eaten blood sausages while in Martinique, i can only assume that the above cheese is french, and tastes like poo.
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Post by Teo del Fuego » Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:42 pm

MikeVDS wrote:Well the chances of you being born under a Black moon are 100%. It's going to happen to some people no matter what and you happen to be one of those people. If it happens every 2.5 years then that is once every 913 days......
Now Mike, ya sure you didnt just pull this outta yer butt? :wink:

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Post by MikeVDS » Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:49 pm

Pull what out? 2.5 years is about 913 days and the 2.5 years was given to me. So that's where that comes from.

The 100% was also given. He said he was born under a black moon. That is a given and doesn't change. It's like flipping two coins. If I say one already landed "heads" then the chance of getting two heads is 50%. He's already "heads" so you don't count him into the equation.

That's also why I mentioned that it's different if you want to know the chances of any random couple being two black moons. That is closer to one in a million. The chance of him dating another girl under the black moon are still 1 in 913.
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Post by Teo del Fuego » Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:00 pm

I was just kidding you, Man

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Post by myredcarpet » Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:13 pm

i suck at math, sooo makes sense to me!
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Post by oneeyeddick » Fri Feb 01, 2008 8:43 am

MikeVDS wrote:Well the chances of you being born under a Black moon are 100%. It's going to happen to some people no matter what and you happen to be one of those people. If it happens every 2.5 years then that is once every 913 days. So about one out of every 913 people were born under a black moon. So the odds of you currently dating someone who was born under a black moon would be 1 out of 913.
Well, right from the git-go there is a bit of skew in your calculative skills.
If the odds of my dating someone born under a black moon are 913 to 1, then you are assuming that I also date men.
If you factor in the percentage of women in our population (57% ?? )
this number changes again.
When we met in Elko, the male to female ratio was 7 to 1, according to census. Use this as an odds multiplier.
OK, now is where it gets tricky.
We were both raised in Montana, but met in Elko, Nevada. That changes numbers again(bear with me)
Our social security numbers only have two digits that are different, Her only Brother and I have the same birthdate(making him a black mooner also) and we also have the same middle name(brother and I).

There are more coincidences, but they are mostly characteristic in nature.

OK, your turn VDS............roll those numbers !!! :D
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Post by MikeVDS » Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:38 pm

Nope. I factored women into that equation. 1 out of every 913 women is born under the black moon. See, same thing. :)

The ratio of 1 woman to every 7 men reduces your chance of getting a girlfriend, but still doesn't change my numbers. It may reduce the number of girlfriends you've had, but even if you've only had one, it's still one out of 913 per girl.

There are a few assumption that throw off the number. I'm assuming that births are evenly distributed through the year. It's possible that the black moon appeared in high or low periods during the period of the age group you're willing to date, but still minor changes.

As far as you sharing the birthday with her brother, that is probably more likely than 1 in 10,000. Most peoples siblings are within a few years age and you probably only date people around +-5 year of your age. So that's a range of 26 years which is around 9500 days.

You cannot really combine the odds with the black moon things otherwise I could think how unlikely it was that I dated someone with the same color eyes as me, who likes the same songs, who had a dog who shared my first and middle name, who's friend was my 2nd cousin who I'd never met before and whose family moved 5 hours away to the same town that my family moved to. The odds of everything that happen are astronomical, but there are so many unlikely things that could happen that it's more likely they will happen than only ordinary things. For example, it's much more likely that many people will win the Lotto more than once than the odds of you winning even one time.

I had something happen to me once which is the most unlikely measurable thing I've ever seen. I rolled a couple handfuls of dice and they all landed on the number 2. I believe there were in the 20's of dice and they were not all six sided. I think it was.
d4
d4
d6
d6
d6
d6
d6
d8
d8
d10
d10
d10
d10
d10
d10
d10
d10
d12
d12
d20
d20

I know it was those for sure, but there may have been more. d# means a die with # of sides. So a D4 has 4 sides and a d20 has 20. Now if I had rolled all 1's 3's or 4's it would have been just as weird so that has to be factored in. So the first d4 would be just one.

1*4*6*6*6*6*6*8*8*10*10*10*10*10*10*10*10*12*12*20*20

=

1.14661786 × 10^19

or

1 in 11,466,178,600,000,000,000

The weird thing was I dropped about 6 of the dice and I thought it was weird that they were all 2's. I throw a few more down and yet more twos, I called my friend over as I rolled the rest of the dice one by one and they kept coming up 2's. Not a single other number. Weird huh?
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Post by oneeyeddick » Fri Feb 01, 2008 6:35 pm

That's beyond wierd.
Why don't you take that to the craps table ?

Bet you can't calculate what your winnings would be if you started out
with $5, let your money ride on the hard 4 but only betting on the come-out rolls of other players
with an average of 102 rolls per hour while tipping 12% of your accumulated winnings
to the cocktail waitress every 43 minutes and and playing for a totalof 6 1/2 hours.
Try to come up with an answer to that !!! :D

also, you never addressed the chances of our social security # only having two different digits. :o
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Post by MikeVDS » Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:02 am

I'll assume yours is:

600-00-0000

This number makes it easy for the mental exercise and your actual one might change it by a very small amount it won't change it significantly. I'll also assume that she received hers after you had yours and within 5 years (since your birth times were already set before you applied for your socials). If you received the closer together the odds are much more likely. My brothers and I are only one number off but my parents applied for them at the same time.

About 17 million social security numbers were given out during that period and only numbers issued where one or two of the numbers are not 0. If only one wasn't 0 you'd have only one number different but I don't discount those numbers because it would be more odd if that happened, so I'm calculating the graters odds of something that weird or more weird happening.

Out of the next 17,000,000 issued, 2,669 have one or two digits in common with yours.
99 + (100 * 2) + (100 * 3) + (100 * 4) + (100 * 5) + (70 * 6) + (10 * 7) = 1 989

The way you get that calculation is that if the 1's or 10's digits are changed, it would be one or two different, then if the one hundreds and the tens are changed it would be different, then if the hundreds and the ones are changed... You can see the pattern. By slightly modifying the formula you can do this for larger spreads.

So roughly 1 in 6400.
OK. I'm going over the numbers and I'm doing something wrong here. Fun little mind game and I'll get back to it, but it looking like it's more likely than one in 10,000. I'll get you a better number soon though.
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Post by MikeVDS » Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:16 am

Yeah, that's pretty close. The artifacts I was running into in my math comes from the specific assignment of numbers. There is no specific answer for this question. It would depend on your specific social security number. For example, if you number has the millions digit in the mid range (3,4,5,6,7) the odds are going to be much more likely of that close of a match. If it's 1 or 9 the odds are much worse of finding someone that close.

Also there are something anomalies that there are no accounting for. Some people don't get a social security number until they are a bit older in life. In those cases the odds would be worse but I have no idea how often that occurs so I cannot reasonably take that into account other than saying +- some amounts.
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Post by MikeVDS » Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:19 am

As for the rolling dice, yeah it's pretty weird. I figure that was my one shot. I'll never win the lotto or trip over a giant pile of money out in the woods. All my luck is up.*





*there is no mathematical basis for this, I'm just making crap up.
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Post by oneeyeddick » Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:36 am

Our millions digit (3rd) is one of the two that is different.
My millions digit is a 7 hers is a 3.
The second one that is different is the tens.
I will have to find if her mom waited for some reason.........
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Post by theCryptofishist » Sat Feb 02, 2008 11:50 am

You have the close first three digits because you were both in Montana--those are the the office where the number was applied for. Do you have similier last names?
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Post by oneeyeddick » Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:45 pm

Her last is Kralich and mine is Martin.
I shot out of my mom in Idaho.
She made her escape in Montana.
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