What I think is going to happen with tickets!!

[lemur]

(this is all conjecture and assumptions, based upon no inside info, my opinion only and not likely to occur, not representing what black rock city LLC will do because i dont know what they will do.. this post is not that of an official representative or anything of the sort.. speaking for me only, from me.. based on no facts at all, just guessing..and reading tea leaves and making bullshit up, this is rumors and possibly falsehoods)


So.. theres some ticket stuff..

Theres 'radical-inclusion' at burning man ..but some people have been radically-not-chosen for a ticket.. much dismay occurred when camps/projects found out what really happened..

a very vocal group of people stood up and was like 'HEY DUDE YER HARSHIN MY BURN' ..black rock city LLC was like 'aw fuck here we go again' and sent out letters and blog posts to try to calm everyone down and say 'we are gonna make it right..'

well: my prediction..... RADICAL-INCLUSION is gonna take a slight hit this year:

I think that the Black Rock City LLC will cave in to community pressure and release a few Thousand tickets to camps/projects as a gesture to show them that they really care..

my guess is 1000-3000 tickets.

these tickets will be given to select camps/projects chosen by the LLC (likely after corresponding with the camps/projects), the camps will not get as many as they want, or maybe even as many as they claim to need... just enough to git er done, on some level.... if they need more than the LLC can give they might not get any, or a few consolation prize tickets to at least let them visit the burn (without their camp/project in tow)

people will be given a chance through techno-wizardry to buy a ticket at some 'open sale tier' price.. access wont be open to the public or gaming or scalpers of any kind, it will be strictly controlled using techno-wizardry

the gaps between the main sale and the open sale were designed into the system from day one in November or before to give the LLC enough time to gauge how many adjustments to the system would be needed, if any.. they didnt offer all of the tickets they expected to be able to sell in the open sale and the main sale.. with some left in 'reserve' just incase some shit went down (they only offered 57,000 for sale when they might have been expecting to be able to sell 60,000 and not draw the ire of the BLM and their permit restrictions)

camps will get some tickets.. projects will get some tickets..

people will feel like something happened... much hand wringing will occur when some camps dont get as many as they wanted, or not any at all.. burning man will still happen, the big camps/projects everyone has grown to expect out there will be there... big mutant vehicles and everyone else lives happily ever after.




that is all.


(again i have no inside info, i am speaking of my own opinion and dont know any facts, this is all based on assumptions and conjecture.. i am not speaking in a capacity that represents Burning Man or the Black Rock City LLC ..i do not know what will happen i am just making guesses and saying stuff that i am thinking on eplaya because i thought my guesses and conjecture and assumptions were super insightful.. and if i do turn out to be right, through some miracle.. i will be vindicated by registering my insight, in the form of conjecture and baseless assumptions without any facts... early on before the stuff is implemented and divulged to the public, again, this is all guesses, conjecture, baseless assumptions and rumor, possibly not to be implemented: VOID WHERE PROHIBITED)

[Raymaker]

I believe this is very likely and although 'unfair' I believe it is appropriate. (for ref. I am not a part of a art or theme camp, and I am not going this year)

[Elderberry]

http://www.sfbg.com/pixel_vision/2012/0 ... an-tickets
Your guess might not be far off. BMORG is actually concerned that if theme camps pull out the entire character of the event will be changed, and not in a good way.
And I can't resist another opportunity to say: A day late and a dollar short.

[wraith]

http://www.sfbg.com/pixel_vision/2012/0 ... an-tickets
Your guess might not be far off. BMORG is actually concerned that if theme camps pull out the entire character of the event will be changed, and not in a good way.
And I can't resist another opportunity to say: A day late and a dollar short.

Honestly, it might be for the best if a lot of the bigger camps did pull out. Maybe a little wake up call for the BMORG folks to remind them that most of the draw of the event is what the participants put into it.

[lemur]

http://www.sfbg.com/pixel_vision/2012/0 ... an-tickets
Your guess might not be far off. BMORG is actually concerned that if theme camps pull out the entire character of the event will be changed, and not in a good way.
And I can't resist another opportunity to say: A day late and a dollar short.

LET IT BE KNOWN THAT I DID NOT PUT A BOOK PLUG LINKING TO AMAZON IN MY PREDICTION LIKE THIS GUY DID:

In my book, The Tribes of Burning Man, I argue that these camps and collectives are the basic building blocks of this culture and the city it creates each summer in Nevada's Black Rock Desert. As LLC board member Harley Dubois said on its website, “Theme camps are the interactive core of Burning Man.”

(that book sucked, by the way..i borrowed it for free from a library)
( scathing review of sucky book here: http://eplaya.burningman.org/viewtopic. ... 0&p=783494 )

(edited to fix shitty link!! (and add link to review!))

[stinkyfoot]

My guess is people will be able to use their info already on file from the Main Sale in the Open Sale in advance of the open Open Sale.

[BBadger]

If that hypothesis by that blog were true, it probably wouldn't affect the current allocated 10k tickets, but rather the "extra 10k" tickets would come from allowances due to a negotiated BLM permit. To suddenly change up the open sale, which many people are banking on and the plan of which is already posted, would cause a very large scale uproar beyond whatever the theme camps might be squeaking about.

[The CO]

Grant funded art projects get honorarium tickets, so that's a non-starter.

Now, how would the borg determine who gets the 1000-3000 tickets? If you think people are pissed right now, imagine how angry they would be if there was another thing they could cry "unfair" about.

How is last-minute tossing around of a few thousand tickets going to fix anything, and what is even broken?

Plus, the idea supposes that the borg would be willing to violate one of the 10 Principles, which they themselves wrote and do a pretty heavy job of plugging.

I give the chance of this happening about 0.0000000013%.

My predictions:
1-They will activate the STEP program on the 22nd.
2-They will sell 10,000 more tickets in March.
3-Some theme camps will take a year off, or disappear, or morph into new camps.
4-New theme camps will emerge.
5-The Oregon Fire Conclave will be accepted to perform in the great circle.
6-The man will burn.
7-There will be dust.

I'm The CO, and I support these predictions.

[Nipple]

Even when you talk about the weather "fair" doesn't mean a thing.

[RevDusty]

Art grantees are not guaranteed any number of tickets and they don't (historically) come through until mid-summer. In my experience, people working on a funded piece of art have bought their tickets in January. I don't know how many people will put in the mega-hours knowing they might not be able to see their creation. I'm guessing not many.

I think the reporting of the possible cancellation of the March sale is a trial balloon put out by the BMORG to gauge sentiment. It creates an entitled class, which I don't like (even though I'd probably be the recipient of one of those tickets - and I need one).

I still think named tickets, with transfer only through the BMORG is the best way to ensure tickets in the hands of attendees as opposed to scalpers/speculators. Processes would need to be in place for gifting and/or designating tickets to specific recipients and narrowing of loopholes that could still be exploited by scalpers. (It wouldn't be perfect, but would greatly reduce the scalper hold on tickets).

Sadly, this isn't an issue best solved by the LLC and ticketing team, as they have shown that it is not their strong point. They should have access to resources well-versed in analyzing the use cases involved and crafting a system that remains true to the spirit of Burning Man and the 10 Principles.

It's not trivial, but it's not terribly difficult either, but it does require a thoughtful methodology to fully consider impacts (intended and unintended) of each policy and process.

[lemur]

Grant funded art projects get honorarium tickets, so that's a non-starter.

Now, how would the borg determine who gets the 1000-3000 tickets? If you think people are pissed right now, imagine how angry they would be if there was another thing they could cry "unfair" about.

How is last-minute tossing around of a few thousand tickets going to fix anything, and what is even broken?

Plus, the idea supposes that the borg would be willing to violate one of the 10 Principles, which they themselves wrote and do a pretty heavy job of plugging.

I give the chance of this happening about 0.0000000013%.


I'm The CO, and I support these predictions.

YEAH B..B.B..BUT.. only about 10% of the art projects are funded by the LLC

They will go to the ones we know are the biggest draw to people, and down the list, 10 o' Clock, 2 oclock esplanade, first.. clearly!!! Cover the big time sound camps first!! (edit: popularity contest)

Last minute tossing out of tickets will make the big people drawers show up..it wont fix the scarcity problem (in my mind nothing broken, BUT people seem to think it is.. if it happens the LLC would be appealing to the squeaky wheels wanton desires !! to save face (if my prediction is true))

Yes i predicted much hand wringing and whining in my original prediction, it's burning man!! some people are always gonna dislike what the LLC does! But ya kno, anything to make momma's little boy happy

(see: child crying in store wanting a toy, mom doesnt want to buy the toy, but doesnt want to be embarrased in public by screaming child that is also annoying everyone in the store.. mom caves and buys toy to shut up the kid and everyone lives happily ever after.. (except mommas ideals and true desires to not buy toys))

also SEE: THIS CAPTAIN PICARD QUOTE:



I dare say that they are willing to go against their own ideals JUST THIS ONCE to appease a very butt-hurt portion of the community that never seemed to understand those ideals in the first place! (whaa? radical-inclusion means i dont get to go?!!? OMG FIASCO, DISASTER THEY SCREWED UP!!!)

Also, I agree wholeheartedly with YOUR predictions.. 100%, CO, i predict that your prediction have a 100% chance of occuring..

i think that your prediction and my prediction might co-exist in a world where both of our predictions come to pass as a prediction that was predicted before becoming a fact.

[vargaso]

I officially agree with the OP. Not only is the BMORG worried about the impact on the event if none or very few of the usual big camps don't go, but there are also a lot of personal relationships between the BMORG members and the core people from a lot the established camps. I'm not exactly in favor of it, and things might be different next year, but for this year, yeah it'll probably go down as you say.

[The CO]

Oooh! New word:

Fiascosaster!

[Gravybrain]

I'm going to make the opposite prediction.... "we are sorry for what happened but it would be unfair to show favor to any particular group, so sort it out, good luck". I hope not but it's certainly an option on the table.

[lemur]

the more i think about it the less likely i think it is that larry harvey wants to do it


edit:

but stranger things have happened...

[greenmachinemike]

It's a good bet that if the theme camps and artists that contribute year after year don't show up, this years burn will be a disappointment. Borg knows this and is doleing out the remaining 10k tickets to established contributors. It's not a perfect solution, many people will be upset, but it is going to happen. Hopefully next year a system will be in place that thwarts scalping, and allows a fair mix of veterans and new blood. If it was up to me, I would invite 30k vets and leave 20 as fair game.

[ZaphodBurner]

If that hypothesis by that blog were true, it probably wouldn't affect the current allocated 10k tickets, but rather the "extra 10k" tickets would come from allowances due to a negotiated BLM permit. To suddenly change up the open sale, which many people are banking on and the plan of which is already posted, would cause a very large scale uproar beyond whatever the theme camps might be squeaking about.

I have a hunch something like that is going to be the solution. Or, at least, I hope. If highway congestion is a factor, then consider the number of early-entry and late-departure types etc who won't be using the highway during peak times.

Where there's a will, there's a way. (Unless the government interferes.)

[BlackRockCityPimp]

The OP and CO both make good points but I hink the Co is more on the money. I think the ORG is more likely to let the chips fall as they may and see what happens. But I would not be opposed to camps like Apok, MASH, HeeBee, BRC skate, etc etc getting special treatment on a small scale. 3000 tix seems a lil high, do we even have 3000 ppl prior to weekend early arrivals? I think alot if not most of the "lost" tickeys were due to attempts at lower prices. I said it before and I will say it again. If you are really committed to the community buy at the higher tier instead of trying for the el cheapo scramble.

For the future I see no reason why we cant have an allotment of tix issued somewhat fairly for themecamps and art builders etc. Maybe two lotteries next year. That would be extra lulzy.

[Mosquitopilate]

I have no idea what is going to go down in the next month but I am just hoping I have a LEGIT shot at 1 ticket unlike what the lottery provided us true passion filled burners, that is all I want

[socks]

Wow,So now they are picking winners and losers

[Sham]

My thoughts on this is once the hard tickets get distributed and in the hands of the lucky winners, they will start to circulate into the hands of people who are planning on going. Until the tickets get out, there will be nothing but anxiety from people not knowing if they are going or not. I know why the org doesn't want to release the tickets early, but there is a huge logjam of frozen tickets until deliveries take place. If they wait until June to distribute, then most won't have time to make plans to attend. It will only give 8 weeks or so.

I don't know the actual numbers, but let's say that last year found 2000 tickets short. That small amount of shortage is not enough to cause the kind of trouble that we're seeing this year.

Another interesting side effect that I can see coming, is a glut of tickets and BELOW face value prices. Honest. If there are speculators holding tickets thinking that they can make a score once they are released, but find not enough people needed them, then either drop the price or get stuck with them. I have seen lots of people planning on skipping this year because of the problems. Not enough people--glut of tickets--drop in prices. Next year, maybe the speculators will stay the fuck away if they lose their shirts.