2018 Playa Conditions

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Traveller in Time
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2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Traveller in Time » Mon May 28, 2018 10:22 am

4 inches of rain on wednesday morning

Floodings at many unexpected locations around the world
Dreaming a temporary world improving the default world



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...I can make anything I can imagine . . . I just can't make _some_ things happen



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lucky420
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by lucky420 » Mon May 28, 2018 12:29 pm

Just got back from the Black Rock Rendevousz.
Playa is for the most part dry. You can drive from one side to the other at about where the event is held. There’s a few wet or dicey looking areas but very few.

It’s going to be dusty cuz it always is... :mrgreen:
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Just_Joe
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Just_Joe » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:10 pm

On the hualapai....
The Saturday before last, a front blew in and we fell to 38°.
Three days later we touched 98°

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Canoe
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Canoe » Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:19 pm

Just_Joe wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:10 pm
On the hualapai....
The Saturday before last, a front blew in and we fell to 38°.
Three days later we touched 98°
Cool!
Then not.

So good you post those.
"Veteran" Burners who came in walk-in-the-park years don't believe/understand this.
Don't understand that during Burn week one can experience frost or falling snow through to over 100F.

Similar to camping in the Namib Desert: 36 in the tent near morning to 113 in the shade at 14:00, day after day (1990; "pre- climate change"). So dry, few clouds, doesn't hold heat. So dry so much light gets through the atmosphere you can read by moonlight and can see to walk around just from the milkyway. (Did I manage to read by milkyway? Vague memory of that.)
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

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Just_Joe
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Just_Joe » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:40 pm

In case anyone was wondering...it's hot. Hotter than normal.
We've been right at 100° or higher all month.
41 days without rain.
Humidity is touching single digits in the afternoon.

I'm having some database issues with daily/monthy extremes reporting,
but in the meantime, here's some cool wavy graphs. Click on the "Monthy" tab to see a good picture of recent highs and lows.
http://www.gerlachweather.com/wxwugraphs.php

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Canoe
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Canoe » Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:09 pm

Nice site!
I'd seen the remote forecasts for 104F and the like and was wondering what the actual values were.

Any word on playa soil conditions? Hard or soft?
Video games are giving kids unrealistic expectations on how many swords they can carry.
.
... but don't harm the red dragon that frequents the area from time to time. He and I have an agreement.

Craigboy
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Craigboy » Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:35 am

Just_Joe wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:40 pm
In case anyone was wondering...it's hot. Hotter than normal.
We've been right at 100° or higher all month.
41 days without rain.
Humidity is touching single digits in the afternoon.

I'm having some database issues with daily/monthy extremes reporting,
but in the meantime, here's some cool wavy graphs. Click on the "Monthy" tab to see a good picture of recent highs and lows.
http://www.gerlachweather.com/wxwugraphs.php
Sounds like an extra serving of dust this year. :)

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:45 am

It dusty every year.

The Journal has a bunch of pics from the Golden Spike.

Looks pretty firm and dust free on day one. Lots of smoke tho.

https://journal.burningman.org/category ... lding-brc/

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lucky420
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by lucky420 » Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:22 pm

Crazy smoke right now. You can even see Mt. Rose, Peavine or Donner Summit from I80 here in town...
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:25 pm

Yeah, it was 10 degrees cooler than forecast yesterday on the CA side in the foothills from the smoke.

Crazy sunset.

Reminds me of 2001 when we had bad fires going up Donner Pass.

pink
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by pink » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:55 pm

The smoke has been horrible here in Stagecoach. Some days couldn't see any of the hills/mountains, including the range right north of us. It's a little bit clearer now...I can see that range.

I hope it isn't as hot as last year. for the first time I left early, right before the burn on Saturday.
I'm not a slut, I'm good time floozy!

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lucky420
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by lucky420 » Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:35 am

Just read on my local news that this July has been the hottest on record here in Reno for he last 125 years of record keeping 8)
Oh my god, it's HUGE!

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Just_Joe
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Just_Joe » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:40 pm

Token wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:45 am
Looks pretty firm and dust free on day one. Lots of smoke tho.
As of this morning, the playa (at least inner playa and between 2:30-7:00 on G) was stellar. Rock hard.
Smoke is better than last weekend but comes and goes, depending on winds. Yes. it's dusty.

I spent last night under the stars, about 5 miles north of BRC. At 4:30 this morning I heard tapping noises on my cot and realized it was raindrops. They stopped almost as soon as they started and wouldn't even be called a "trace" by any measure, but it was something....

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:53 pm

Just_Joe wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:40 pm

I spent last night under the stars, about 5 miles north of BRC. At 4:30 this morning I heard tapping noises on my cot and realized it was raindrops. They stopped almost as soon as they started and wouldn't even be called a "trace" by any measure, but it was something....
How was the meteor show?

I miss all the good stuff cuz I’m in the woods and hills, despite zero light pollution.

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:48 am

Gonna be a hot one.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Please note the CPC is prognostication of probability for departure from normal seasonals, not an actual weather forcast.

Strictly probability.

First one is for all the WAP folks. Look at the “Valid” date range in the image.

Second is for early event days.

Be prepared.
30976881-1B7F-493C-8918-13976DAED042.gif
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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:41 pm

NOAA just updated their Outlook for September (1/2 month lead probability chart)

All points to warmer than seasonal with ~ 50% probability.
25C5B555-C12B-4BD2-BFDA-6A31AD33FE38.gif
Any monsoonal moisture or rogue Pacific tropical storm remnants are not likely as the steering currents have been strong with taking storms towards Hawaii. So looking nice and dry.

Stay dusty my friends!
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Drizzt321
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Drizzt321 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:56 pm

Based on https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/u ... alwx_10day, if it holds accurate, camp Build week will be be balmy, mid 90s during the day. I like those lows though, mid 50s? Not too bad.

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:27 pm

Please remember that Wunderground, Accuweather and the likes ate often off by +- 10 degrees WRT playa weather.

Good for wind and storm tracks n such.

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:57 am

The Playa gods appear merciful this year!

Good news for all WRT temperature probability prediction (not a forecast)

Latest NOAA prognostication points to near-normal seasonal temperatures and no rain.

Please mind the date range for each image.
F5AAFD6C-C13D-4B99-A206-9ACFB7E5AE40.gif
Unless there is some nasty anomaly in the GFS or ECMFW, this will be the final prognosticators update for this years Goat Rodeo.

Burn Hard!
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Traveller in Time
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Traveller in Time » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:14 pm

How is the air?

Smokey all day or only during dawn?
Dreaming a temporary world improving the default world



Not expressing yourself but embracing all other expressions is The Challenge




...I can make anything I can imagine . . . I just can't make _some_ things happen



Have some Free will

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:23 pm

National Weater Service in Sacramento posts daily loops of the smoke coverage and also model forecasts on their Twitter account.

Look them up.

I’m sure Reno NWS does similar as a major dopler site.

littlemonkey
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by littlemonkey » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:35 pm

https://airnow.gov/

littlemonkey

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Traveller in Time
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Traveller in Time » Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:35 pm

Thanks anyway :D
Dreaming a temporary world improving the default world



Not expressing yourself but embracing all other expressions is The Challenge




...I can make anything I can imagine . . . I just can't make _some_ things happen



Have some Free will

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Drizzt321
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Drizzt321 » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:09 pm

littlemonkey wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:35 pm
https://airnow.gov/

littlemonkey
Currently looks like the AQI is Moderate (I think this is the direct Nevada link), so some possible issue for some folks. Probably not as bad as a good whiteout.

Looks like weather should be really nice, https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/u ... alwx_10day. Seems like might be low 90s for the rest of build week, might even be into the 80s beginning of the event. Possible concern is the slight chance of rain Monday/Tuesday next week, but doesn't seem like it'd be more than a sprinkle with short term shutdowns.

Unless it suddenly turns and we have another Black Top City Monday :shock:

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:27 pm

80’s on Playa are fucking chilly. If it continues to trend that way, bring warm coats for night time.

It’s that darn lack of moisture that makes 80 nippy.

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Drizzt321
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Drizzt321 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:41 am

True, true.

However night times seem like they'll be decent. 60's at midnight isn't bad, although fortunately it doesn't look like it'll be doing low 40s this year. Remember 2-3 years ago when it felt like it was 40 by midnight? COLD. Of course, there are ways to simply not feel the cold... ;)

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Traveller in Time
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Traveller in Time » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:45 am

Expecting weather report live from BRC around noon
Dreaming a temporary world improving the default world



Not expressing yourself but embracing all other expressions is The Challenge




...I can make anything I can imagine . . . I just can't make _some_ things happen



Have some Free will

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Drizzt321
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Drizzt321 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:57 am

Traveller in Time wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:45 am
Expecting weather report live from BRC around noon
Nice. If you can inquire about Playa surface specifically, how it is so far that'd be awesome too. And if not...well, I'll find out tomorrow! =D

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Token
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Token » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:15 am

NOAA totally flipped the script and is predicting a cooling trend setting in for the week.

Go figure.

Bring warm clothes.
16CEEF71-F29E-4DE8-AFD5-6DC6F425BF4A.gif
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Jackass
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Re: 2018 Playa Conditions

Post by Jackass » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:10 pm

Drizzt321 wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:41 am
Remember 2-3 years ago when it felt like it was 40 by midnight?
That was 2015, and that's what you get when daytime highs are only in the 80s or low 90s. It didn't just feel like 40 by midnight, it was 40 by midnight. I was getting temps in the high 30s inside my tent trailer before going to bed... Brrrr, hope it's not one of those this year.

I couldn't do enough jumping jacks, sprints, or ride my bike fast enough to get warm on several nights that year...
Sooner or later, it will get real strange...

11th Principle: Depussyfication - Keeping Burning Man potentially lethal. Token

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