Dutch Auctions are the answer for how tickets should work

[Elorrum]

Each day the price goes down $20.

The tickets sell in an instant... I don't think there would be any price dropping. AT ALL.

[vpismo]

I agree Dutch auctions are the way to go. The only problem I see with is that it's complicated to explain and when people don't understand something they throw up their hands and yell " BMorg conspiracy!" I would love to see someone from BMorg say why they think Dutch Auctions are a bad idea.

[vpismo]

Each day the price goes down $20.

The tickets sell in an instant... I don't think there would be any price dropping. AT ALL.

If that was true why didn't the $800 tickets sell out in 5 minutes?

[Captain Goddammit]

The $800 tickets sold out record quick, not as quickly as possible because most people figured they had a good shot at $400 tickets.

Anyone who doesn't immediately bid $1000 on that Dutch Oven system would be a fool.

[vargaso]

Each day the price goes down $20.

The tickets sell in an instant... I don't think there would be any price dropping. AT ALL.

If that was true why didn't the $800 tickets sell out in 5 minutes?

Because there's general sale with lower ticket prices after the presale, so people for whom $800 is a big deal were counting on that. If there was only one sale, people's price threshold would rise significantly. I know mine would.

[jneilvindy]

Again. the dutch oven system especially with low income tickets is all about removing the middle guys and having the desperate and the rich pay for the lower priced tickets.

So instead of the current random chance system you'd rather see a money talks system. Oh and auction even! Just make it all about the dollars.

[Elderberry]

There would be a lot of folks today willing to pay $800 for a ticket who passed on the opportunity when offered it a few weeks ago in the Presale.

How true. Peace of mind,especially for those coming from a good distance, had to be worth $400. In retrospect of course.

THAT'S THE ANSWER!!!!!! Put the pre-sale expensive tickets AFTER the regular sale and just call it the post-sale. People will be happy to pay the higher price and nobody can be called an elitist anymore for waiting to buy the expensive tickets. WOW a win-win.

[bradtem]

Many people would bid high, I agree -- but as many as 30,000 or 50,000? I have a lot of doubt. Remember, in these auctions it doesn't matter what the high bidders bid, it's what the 50,000th highest bid is that sets the price for everybody.

But let's examine this, what is the right thing to do if there is really that much demand. Use a lottery, or a supposedly first-come-first-served ticket site that is really a lottery in disguise to sell tickets at well below market value? What is the virtue in that? What I am proposing is there be (at least) 2 options -- paying market value and getting certainty, or paying a below-market price and accepting the risk of losing out for bad luck or server glitches. Both have their virtues, and you can balance the numbers to meet other goals.

All of this is much more possible now that the organization is a non-profit. Tapping the surplus demand of the burner community, rather than discarding it or letting scalpers take it, allows us to have more of what we want inside the community. More art. More services. An efficient no-wait gate. Cleaner potties. More BRAF taking art out into the community. Better playa restoration. Kickstarting money for regionals. More people getting in with subsidies. You give up a lot to feel good about doing a lottery at below-market prices. And frankly, I am not sure we feel all that good because of it.

I've been feeling a lot better about the org now that it's been revealed that they donated the event to the non-profit, and the idea of the org taking some of the tremendous value of Burning Man and flowing it into the community has much more attraction.

[Elorrum]

Each day the price goes down $20.

The tickets sell in an instant... I don't think there would be any price dropping. AT ALL.

If that was true why didn't the $800 tickets sell out in 5 minutes?

If the $800 ticket sale was the only sale, it would be instantaneous as well. If they do a pre-sale next year, my prediction is
those tickets will go instantly.

[bradtem]

If the $800 ticket sale was the only sale, it would be instantaneous as well. If they do a pre-sale next year, my prediction is
those tickets will go instantly.

None of us has the data, but the event has sold out since 2011 and was widely expected to sell out this year, so I am not sure why there would be a sudden shift to everybody paying $800.

In 2009, sales were well under $40,000 (Attendance was 41K but there are _lot_ of comps) at a ticket price of $210 to $360. The next year, attendance did get just over 50K but the event did not sell out. Burning Man is not an exponential growth event. I did exponential growth from 91 to 99, but since then has been on a more linear path, even dropping some years. It's been world famous for quite some time. Ticket prices did rise and sales at the gate were (mostly) stopped to harness in the growth, but mostly I think it's on that linear path because the playa is harsh and remote -- it takes work and time to come to BRC and is supposed to.

There is a large group who are not price elastic. I'll admit to being one -- the cost of tickets is a small portion of what I spend to go. But I build art installations, run camps and rent an RV. But there are lots of people who would say "At $1,000, I might not go every year, much as I love it." Sad, but as a sold out event, all of us can't go every year, and there is little that can change that.

[Lonesomebri]

....then there is nothing you can do to prevent such a wall of money from having its way. You can try...

YES!!!! As long as that messy oddity of human will and existence can be done away with and money can finally have complete control over everything like so many money-is-god folks want. The problem here, as far as I can see, is treating money as a natural force, it does whatever it wants and there is no control, so get out of the way and let it do it's thing... rather than seeing money as a human tool, that can be managed and controlled. Add to that the thought that the event is running static, and hasn't hit an exponential growth spurt...

Anyway, I believe the event should utilize a Dutch Oven type ticket distribution but I really don't have the time to go into that now....

[jneilvindy]

Anyway, I believe the event should utilize a Dutch Oven type ticket distribution but I really don't have the time to go into that now....

And here I thought the blowjobs for Larry was going to be the breaking point....

[melodiousdirge]

I see a well thought out and cogent solution to the problem in the OP; I can probably conclude based on that alone that it won't be adopted.

I see a lot of people replying who don't understand the mechanics of what's been proposed, raising objections that are actually addressed in the OP. No worries though, the BMORG won't ever adopt a system that makes this much sense, so you'll never have to actually learn a new concept.

[some seeing eye]

I believe the event should utilize a Dutch Oven type ticket distribution

Here here, a chicken for every pot. (Hoover said that and gave us the depression)

[Captain Goddammit]

You would be an IDIOT not to bid the $1000 the instant the Dutch Oven started.
Here's why.
Let's say you bid the $1000... now you have a guaranteed place in line. MAYBE the price will even drop. Yay!
Worst case scenario, the price stays at or close to $1000. You now have the option of paying the going rate, or selling your ticket.

If you DON'T bid immediately, you likely don't get to go, period.

There's no way in hell I would risk waiting for the price to drop. And I doubt that I'm the only person (besides you) who can see that there's no risk in it, because the tickets will sell.

Even IF the market wouldn't bear $1000 tickets, you could at least get most of your money back, and I'd risk selling at a slight loss sooner than risk not being able to obtain tickets at all.
Chances are, if the market were so soft, you wouldn't have ended up paying $1000 anyway.

[jneilvindy]

I see a well thought out and cogent solution to the problem in the OP; I can probably conclude based on that alone that it won't be adopted.

I see a lot of people replying who don't understand the mechanics of what's been proposed, raising objections that are actually addressed in the OP. No worries though, the BMORG won't ever adopt a system that makes this much sense, so you'll never have to actually learn a new concept.

Again I'll ask the question. How is the dutch auction going to help 50% of the people who want tickets but can't get them because there aren't enough tickets available for everyone?

That is the fundamental problem with burning man ticket sales right now. Scarcity. Not price. Not server rushes versus slow server bids. Scarcity.

How is the dutch auction going to solve scarcity?

And saying by raising ticket prices to a point where the middle guy can't afford them isn't an answer. It's just a way of making people who want to go to burning man pay more for the privilege and subsidizing the lower income tickets.

[melodiousdirge]

If the $800 ticket sale was the only sale, it would be instantaneous as well. If they do a pre-sale next year, my prediction is
those tickets will go instantly.

They didn't go instantly the year before, so I'd say that's a pretty strong prediction based on nothing. The event is gentrifying, but I don't think it's far along that curve that all attendees can afford $800 tickets.

The fact of the matter is, space is limited, and scarcity has not only increased the ticket value, it's widened the appeal to exclusivists who want in now that there's a lineup to get in. The face value of tickets is irrelevant now unless something is done to eliminate resales on stubhub and ebay. I don't know if a dutch auction would solve that, but it seems like it might at least serve to address some of the resale market. The only other good solutions I've seen proposed are non-transferable tickets, but that seems to be an unpopular idea. Another idea is to give first crack at 2016 registration to people who registered but didn't get tickets this year. There's just not enough room for everyone to go every year, and that's that.

[melodiousdirge]

You would be an IDIOT not to bid the $1000 the instant the Dutch Oven started.
Here's why.
Let's say you bid the $1000... now you have a guaranteed place in line. MAYBE the price will even drop. Yay!
Worst case scenario, the price stays at or close to $1000. You now have the option of paying the going rate, or selling your ticket.

If you DON'T bid immediately, you likely don't get to go, period.

There's no way in hell I would risk waiting for the price to drop. And I doubt that I'm the only person (besides you) who can see that there's no risk in it, because the tickets will sell.

Even IF the market wouldn't bear $1000 tickets, you could at least get most of your money back, and I'd risk selling at a slight loss sooner than risk not being able to obtain tickets at all.
Chances are, if the market were so soft, you wouldn't have ended up paying $1000 anyway.

You're presupposing that enough people are willing to spend $1000 that the tickets would sell out at or near that price... in which case that's the fair market value of those tickets and Burning man is no longer radically inclusive. Looking on ebay and at the messaging boards i'd say that both those things are already true - at least this way the scalpers don't profit.

[melodiousdirge]

How is the dutch auction going to help 50% of the people who want tickets but can't get them because there aren't enough tickets available for everyone?

It doesn't. That problem is basically unsolvable unless you eliminate some of the demand, or increase the space. The dutch auction simply removes some of the scabby assholes from the mix who run ticket buying software to get face value tickets and then sell them for $1500.

[FlyingMonkey]

Again. the dutch oven system especially with low income tickets is all about removing the middle guys and having the desperate and the rich pay for the lower priced tickets.

So instead of the current random chance system you'd rather see a money talks system. Oh and auction even! Just make it all about the dollars.

I thought the real beauty of the Dutch Oven was that the thick cast iron retained the heat which made them ideal for cooking over open fires.

But getting back to the Dutch Auction..... With the exception of the LI sale & the DGS(which I think work & are important for insuring camps have their core members) why is the current randomness such a bad thing? If anything it makes everyone more equal regarding ones level of affluence. Someone working a lower paying job has just as good a chance as someone making over $100K/year.

Yes, we all run the risk of not getting a ticket with the current system, but the Dutch Auction ensures that people of lesser means who don't qualify for the LI sale get totally shafted by a system that favors someone who can spend over $1000. That to me seems radically exclusive.

I have to agree with jneilvindy on this.

[melodiousdirge]

It's just a way of making people who want to go to burning man pay more for the privilege

Hey I don't like that means of filtering down the demand either; it runs contrary to radical inclusion and it skews the burner demographic away from creative beautiful souls with something to share and towards rich kids with white rimmed oakleys - but this is 'merica and that's generally how things are done. Other systems of weeding people out are possible but they are all problematic. The lottery was the most 'fair' but it was a ridiculous failure for many reasons. I don't know what the answer is to the need to exclude half of the people who want to go. Extend the event out to 2 weeks or a month? Move it somewhere even less hospitable? Have two events? I don't know.

[jneilvindy]

How is the dutch auction going to help 50% of the people who want tickets but can't get them because there aren't enough tickets available for everyone?

It doesn't. That problem is basically unsolvable unless you eliminate some of the demand, or increase the space. The dutch auction simply removes some of the scabby assholes from the mix who run ticket buying software to get face value tickets and then sell them for $1500.

I guess I got faith in the ORG's efforts to control scalping. I'm pretty sure I've read that they have kept scalping far below normal for events like this and take a very pro-active stance in hunting down scalper systems that try to game the ticket sales.

All I know is I would hate to see burning man become a race to the top of prices as a way of determining who gets a ticket and I see any sort of auction system as taking us down that very road.

I think setting the price for tickets at a reasonable price and then giving us all an equal chance at them internet connection and luck willing is the best most fairest way of dealing with the situation.

may the odds be ever in our favour

[some seeing eye]

jnielvindy has hit the proverbial Dutch auction on its head: auctions don't solve scarcity. But they can be designed to the advantage of certain classes.

Raising the population cap and shifting to regionals addresses scarcity.

Raising the population cap requires scarcity in the vehicle pass system to encourage switching to the burner express and more ride sharing.

The BORG has the burner express numbers (maybe they will be in the afterburn report), which are growing. They have the airport numbers, growing, and they may even have data on the riders per vehicle, growing, early entry and after gates open. They would have some data on the exodus pulse lineups. As for tickets they would have a rough breakdown by country and region and how that breaks over the various ticket sales. They know emails identities, maybe credit card data. They have the numbers in the PnP camps, how many RV's were delivered by vendors.

I think it is fine that burners are creative in improving things, but there will be a shortage for the foreseeable future. Any well thought out proposals are probably better mailed to the BORG. But realistically they have a lot of data to design the system each year.

I kind of like Elorrum's every other year system, but it is impossible to enforce.

[Captain Goddammit]

Flying Monkey I must correct you on one issue, fine sir.
In the context of this issue, the name Dutch Oven refers not to cooking utensils, but specifically the act of farting under a blanket.

[melodiousdirge]

the Dutch Auction ensures that people of lesser means who don't qualify for the LI sale get totally shafted by a system that favors someone who can spend over $1000. That to me seems radically exclusive

I can't disagree with you on that front. My preference would be to keep the system more or less as it is, with STEP as the ONLY option for transferring tickets. I realize that would inconvenience a lot of people but it would really put the hurt on the secondary market.

[FlyingMonkey]

Flying Monkey I must correct you on one issue, fine sir.
In the context of this issue, the name Dutch Oven refers not to cooking utensils, but specifically the act of farting under a blanket.

LOL Captain, I know that other definition as well but chose not to go there. Maybe we can start a Dutch Oven thread (this one has beat the horse to death).

[Eric]

In 2009, sales were well under $40,000 (Attendance was 41K but there are _lot_ of comps) at a ticket price of $210 to $360. The next year, attendance did get just over 50K but the event did not sell out. Burning Man is not an exponential growth event.

Brad, you've been going ages longer than me, surely you can see this is a total straw-man argument? Burning Man's current size has nothing to do with "growth" and everything to do with the BLM population cap. For the last few years we've been capped at 65-70,000 (this is year two at 70,000), but the demand for tickets has grown like crazy. By BMorgs estimate on their own blog it's at least double the number of registrants to tickets available (and that's just the people who didn't fuck up their registration, which seems to be a pretty high number this year based on posts here & on fb). The Captain is right - I know I'd scrimp & save to enter at the $1000 level to guarantee entry, and there are thousands of people out there who make more than me (or have better credit ratings) and are willing to do the same. A price-based auction is guaranteed to end at a high dollar amount when the "item" is scarce, only happens once a year, and can't be repeated.

All your addendums just bring it more in line with what is already being done, except people currently at least have a shot at getting a ticket for $390, under your plan that just wouldn't happen.

The dutch auction simply removes some of the scabby assholes from the mix who run ticket buying software to get face value tickets and then sell them for $1500.

No it doesn't. Those are the people most likely to be able to afford throwing a higher amount at the tickets in the first place, and it'll be worth it to them because they know people will pay outrageous prices once they're quickly sold-out. This would do zero in solving any (way overstated) scalping problem. Counterfeiting is much more of a problem than real scalping, and the Dutch Oven plan would drive that through the roof.

[vpismo]

I guess I got faith in the ORG's efforts to control scalping. I'm pretty sure I've read that they have kept scalping far below normal for events like this and take a very pro-active stance in hunting down scalper systems that try to game the ticket sales.

BMorg has clearly stated that scalping tickets IS legal in the state of Nevada and there is nothing they can do about it.

[melodiousdirge]

Those are the people most likely to be able to afford throwing a higher amount at the tickets in the first place, and it'll be worth it to them because they know people will pay outrageous prices once they're quickly sold-out. This would do zero in solving any (way overstated) scalping problem. Counterfeiting is much more of a problem than real scalping, and the Dutch Oven plan would drive that through the roof.

You may be correct; I guess it depends how the actual auction went. If tickets did sell out at $1000 as some are speculating they would, then scalpers could still make profits, but it takes a bit of the wind out of their sails if they have to hang $1000 out there to make a $1500 sale instead of scamming the system with software and getting tickets for $390 to turn around at $1500.

[melodiousdirge]

nothing they can do about it.

Except perhaps make tickets non-transferable.