2016 Playa Conditions

[pink]

It's gonna be dusty. Just had a white out at gate. Big dust across the play.

Edit: and another. Ain't moving at all. Can't see at all.

[1durphul]

So here is forecast as of Today (Thursday Aug 16) for the week of Burning Man 2016 from Gerlach (apply playa factors of +5 degrees F for highs, and -5 for lows)

Looks like low 80s to mid 90s during the day, low 40s to low 30s at night. I'm excited to be able to use my night time wear again! The last four years I went the nights were very warm.

[maladroit]

WUnderground uses Alturas, CA for Gerlach...so...pretty far away and across a mountain. More locally source forecasts still look like 50 degree nightly lows.

[1durphul]

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[1durphul]

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[1durphul]

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[Token]

Climate Prediction Center at NOAA has some outlook data that is interesting:

CPC NOAA

They update this daily so pay attention to the embedded date in the outlook image (not a forecast).

They are projecting a 33% chance of cooler than average temperatures for the first week, trending to 50% chance of cooler than average for second week.

There is also greater chance of precipitation around labor day.

The GFS Model shows a nice series of low pressure waves moving through starting ~ Wed and going through Temple burn.

You can very nicely the surface wind increasing in that timeline.

And the jet-streams illustrate the driving engine, make that low pressure front really pop out front and center mid-week.

The only collision for the CPC and GFS - GFS is projecting much warmer surface temperatures, but I give CPC the edge in the outlook. CPC uses many models, not just the GFS and most other models are not public accessible like the GFS. Gotta pay to see them.

Bottom line:

Gonna Be Dusty As Fuck!

[Token]

Here comes the dust!

Wed - Friday, looking like a few periods of sustained 15-20Mph winds in Gerlach (Yes, NOAA shows Gerlach wind speeds).

This will likely amplify on the Playa.

http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/nev ... recast.htm

Thursday afternoon/evening looks to be the strongest wind event.

Beak out the goggles and bandanas, live the dream!

[Token]

Oh, BTW, forgot to mention ...

These winds will be blowing all the wrong ways!

General direction will be deep Playa towards center camp - i.e. winds from East flowing to West.

[Canoe]

As in, the typical cross winds.

[Token]

As in, the typical cross winds.

No, cross wind would be airport to The Man direction.

East wind is reverse of the typical west-ish direction.

Remember the clock is rotated and north is 4:30 radial - 10:30 direction

[Canoe]

Naming is backwards.
Prevailing winds are from ~South-West, sorta airport to man.
Cross winds come down the playa at the man. As in, from the ~East-North-East.

[Token]

Well that is now all complicated and dyslexic.

On the pretty picture, it will blow from the East toward West.

So from esplanade down the 7:30 Plaza, more or less.

Not quite Xwind, but closer to that than prevailing.

[Traveller in Time]

Wow a sundial, now we can see from the direction of shadows what time it is.

If the sun is behind the man it is morning.
If the shadow points to the man it is noon.
Sun and wind from the same direction it must be afternoon.
No sun and no shadow it will be party time.

Is it not just always playa time?


NB my Avatar says ten to two

[FlyingMonkey]

I find myself watching the live feed as there is a total white out thinking......Damn, I wish I was there right now.

[forty_eight]

I find myself watching the live feed as there is a total white out thinking......Damn, I wish I was there right now.

*burner logic*

[Token]

White-out is picking up. Pretty solid now.

Two more afternoons of this.

[Canoe]

Currently a Westish wind is blowing through Gerlach and out onto the playa (Blue Mountain is showing wind: SW 10 G 19 MPH).
As the wind passes over the broken playa surface of the roads to Gate, and then in BRC, it stirs up a huge amount of dust. In the view from Gerlach, you can see the cloud of dust over BRC. Under the zoom of the livefeed webcam as it pans around BRC, the playa appears like a white out, but when it zooms back you can see how you do have some distance you can see to navigate. When the playacam was pointed straight down, it was surprisingly clear for the distance of the height of the tower. I'd guess the visibility to be in the 150' to 200' range, less in gusts. Playa cam shows flags snapping nicely in the wind.

Just so you Virgins understand: this is NOT bad conditions!!!

The dust is stirred up high enough that the usual trick of looking upwards to see the man (for navigation) likely won't work, and the man is rather short this year anyway.

West wind stiring lanes to gate over BRC.jpg

[Verve 2]

Thank you all for these comments. Watching the live stream and reading this thread, from those of you that are usually out there, has really helped make my conceptual visualization of the playa way more 3 dimensional and real. 2017.

[Canoe]

Thank you all for these comments. Watching the live stream and reading this thread, from those of you that are usually out there, has really helped make my conceptual visualization of the playa way more 3 dimensional and real. 2017.

Watching the live stream, assuming you aren't familiar with, be it intuitively, by shear force of brain power, or by training, interpreting images, a big clue is to watch what the people on the ground are doing on the playa. Walking straight/curved, in lurches, bike riders bobbing forward as they pedal against wind, etc., flag motion. Are they looking around struggling to find where they are. Under bad conditions, you won't be able to see them... But while you can, it's interesting. Are they plodding along, or are some jogging comfortably (you'll never catch me jogging on the playa). What one person is doing usually doesn't count (as there are countless explanations for lurching, etc.), but watch for what are most of them doing and how they're doing it. When there's enough people visible in the image, it's rather amazing how good of a look & feel you can get.

A real big insight, is to read the first hand accounts from prior years. Not the happy-hippy/happy-new-age/happy-____ recountings (which can be interesting in their own way), but the eplaya stories by the many regular eplaya posters (whom would get called out for B.S. posts, and watch out as some of them enjoy that), and often their accounts are corroborated by others who were on the playa at the same time and sometimes even at the same location or event. You do have to look over a few years. Like one year weather conditions were a-walk-in-the-park, which had Virgins from that year posting the following year that you didn't need to pay attention to all the dire warnings on being prepared for the playa; those that followed that advice were not happy campers, and technically no longer campers after the first wind went through and removed their tents (or the two doctors' hexayurt that literally blew apart as they had assembled it with duct tape; spent the rest of the Burn in a gifted pup tent, well staked in the lee of a vehicle).

A good place to start are the various 'playa conditions' threads from prior years.

[Verve 2]

Thanks Canoe, more good points I'll check out. One thing I realized watching is that it never occurred to me there were so many mutant vehicles, I'm working on being as prepared as possible for any of the conditions I read about. It's nice to have veterans giving real time feedback during the event for those of us not yet having been there.

[burner von braun]

I'm working on being as prepared as possible for any of the conditions I read about.

Good on ya Verve 2, that kind of thinking, along with follow through, counts for a lot around here, as you may already know.

Certainly a welcome relief from the many cringeworthy "ticket and need a camp" posts we've seen swamping eplaya recently.

[Verve 2]

Thanks Burner Certainly in my case it has been have my camp and all that goes with it together before going for a ticket. For me that includes a camp that is comfortable and one I can put together pretty much myself, that includes shade. But then I am older and want to be prepared and self reliant. What I would suggest to other newbies, read, read, read, digest, plan then reread, reread, reread, make changes accordingly.

[GadMatt]

Yaw;
Go camping with whatever camp structure you come up with... Try it out in the "real world" of heat and wind and cold.
I don't know where you live, but go to the most inhospitable locale available and try it out... Try-out your food choices and cooling options in the real, real world complete with fierce winds and blowing dust.
Audition camp-mates! Look for troopers that take care of any camp business with a grin. Even at 3 am in the pouring rain... those are the ones that will have your back, no matter what... They are worth their weight in swag, and are worth a kiss, first thing in the morning after a hard night.
Go to the closest regional burn's and make friends. Learn from the smart and clever ones that you will find there. (You might find life long friends.) Learn and ask advice based on what you got planned for a home at "that thing in the desert".
You are on the right track. Ya gotz about a year ta prepare. Good on ya mate!
There are some incredible people here on E-Playa that can help with technical questions; do your own research but if ya get stumped, ask...

[Token]

NWS has Saturday night through Sunday morning at ~ 30% chance of thunderstorms and showers.

Rainbows for everyone!

It will also cool down some during this time.

[skibear]

Yes, dust may end !

FWIW the NWS Reno posted this 1 hour ago:

"A cold front will be moving through the region this weekend: Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will bring a period of scattered rain showers to locations mainly north of Interstate 80.

This image shows the current expected precipitation along and behind the cold front. While 0.05-0.15" does not sound like a lot of rain, this could result in difficult travel conditions on or off the playa in the Black Rock Desert. It doesn't take much rain to turn the talcum-like dust into a muddy mess!"

[Canoe]

That was close.
Weather radar shows there was some light rain in the hills: immediately to the East of Gerlach and further up the playa to the South East, East and North East of BRC. Some right at the East edge of the playa, at the same Lat as Winnemucca.
And a brief tiny touch in the hills North of Gerlach...

[Canoe]

F

Radar image 2016-09-03 4:30 PM.

2016-09-03 4.30pm radar rain.jpg

Some very small pockets of rain, light to moderate, heading East, towards Gerlach/BRC.
Current tracking has the lower piece of rain along the road on the North edge of the playa?
This is too close for comfort, but at least they're small bits of rain.

[Canoe]

And these weren't upwind. The clouds just started dropping water.

Radar image from 6:00 PM.

2016-09-03 6.00pm rain.jpg

Nothing else currently raining upwind.

[Canoe]

6:15 PM image
so a little more rain to come, it might slip by under BRC or go right over
it's not displaying the 6:30 PM image yet

2016-09-03 6.15pm rain.jpg

Live feed is showing people, bikes, art cars, pickups & golf carts moving around without difficulty. Looks like it was light enough to work as dust control.

And as of 6:52 PM, no affect on traffic posted on https://twitter.com/bmantraffic