Using eplaya posting metrics to determine city population

[1durphul]

I wonder if you could use eplaya posting metrics to predict the population of the current year. Is there a correlation? Is there a certain month that correlates better than others?

[Captain Goddammit]

What?
All you have to do is look the population limit imposed by the BLM.
That's the population. If they allow 70,000 tickets, 70,000 will be there, it's a sold-out gig.

[BBadger]

The experiment might be interesting to carry out, but unfortunately, since the population levels are artificially capped we will never know what the "true" demand is. The fact that it sells out might also increase interest and demand beyond what the event might otherwise experience.

It might be interesting to see how many new accounts get made or used for the explicit purpose of trying to obtain tickets though. Might be a way to assess overall availability or desperation.

[Dr. Pyro]

What?
All you have to do is look the population limit imposed by the BLM.
That's the population. If they allow 70,000 tickets, 70,000 will be there, it's a sold-out gig.

70,000 tickets does not mean the population is 70,000. Many people are there to build, construct, and tear down who don't have tickets. Are law enforcement and the people from United Services considered part of the population? I would argue yes, just as "undocumented immigrants" are considered part of the population of the country or state. And Larry & Co. certainly don't buy tickets. I have no real evidence, but I suspect the population, if you indeed considered everyone on site, probably is closer to 75,000 people. But what the hell do I know, I'm just a grown man playing with Barbies.

[1durphul]

The experiment might be interesting to carry out, but unfortunately, since the population levels are artificially capped we will never know what the "true" demand is. The fact that it sells out might also increase interest and demand beyond what the event might otherwise experience.

It might be interesting to see how many new accounts get made or used for the explicit purpose of trying to obtain tickets though. Might be a way to assess overall availability or desperation.

Oh yes indeed! I didn't even consider that postings aren't the only metrics that eplaya could produce. New accounts could also provide some interesting data.

As for the cap, yeah that does create an artificial upper limit that would confound for years after 2011 (I believe that was the first single day sell out year.) But I bet the data for eplaya prior to 2011 and population/ticket sales would provide for some interesting correlations.

[1durphul]

The experiment might be interesting to carry out, but unfortunately, since the population levels are artificially capped we will never know what the "true" demand is. The fact that it sells out might also increase interest and demand beyond what the event might otherwise experience.

It might be interesting to see how many new accounts get made or used for the explicit purpose of trying to obtain tickets though. Might be a way to assess overall availability or desperation.

Oh yes indeed! I didn't even consider that postings aren't the only metrics that eplaya could produce. New accounts could also provide some interesting data. Postings in specific forums (Tickets for example), etc...

As for the cap, yeah that does create an artificial upper limit that would confound for years after 2011 (I believe that was the first single day sell out year.) But I bet the data for eplaya prior to 2011 and population/ticket sales would provide for some interesting correlations.

[ygmir]

it seems somewhere, I've seen a number from the tech team/ticket vendor, as to how may inquiries for tickets there were, compared to how many tickets were sold.

[Captain Goddammit]

I don't think there's any useful data to be had from eplaya. Only a very minute percentage of burners are on eplaya.
It's hardly a blip on the radar.

[Eric]

I don't think there's any useful data to be had from eplaya. Only a very minute percentage of burners are on eplaya.
It's hardly a blip on the radar.

Sad to say, since this is our little playa-away-from-The-Playa, but this is the correct answer. Most attendees have probably never even heard of us.

[trilobyte]

There isn't any connection at all. First, one need not be a ticket holder in order to post. Then there's no connection between post activity and attendance whatsoever. We do see spikes in activity, but it's not connected to attendance as much as it's connected to frustration and outrage. In 2012 when there was that perfect storm of random drawing, viral video, and crushing demand we saw our biggest spike in both new users and posts... people were coming here to vent their frustration and talk things out and work out alternative plans. The population was relatively unchanged from the two previous years.

With the event continuing to be a sell-out since 2011, the only metric that's proven to have any connection to the city's population has been the population cap.

[Traveller in Time]

So the level of new users is more or less related to the number of burners missing out on tickets.

Determining potential city overpopulation

[Captain Goddammit]

So the level of new users is more or less related to the number of burners missing out on tickets.

Determining potential city overpopulation

You're not making any sense whatsoever.
The event is a sellout and has been for years. We already know exactly how many people will be there, there's nothing to determine.

[Traveller in Time]

You are absolutely right it makes as much sense as counting people stranded without gas to determine the used fuel.

Still it is somewhat related >> more people stranding suggests there is probably more fuel used.

[Captain Goddammit]

No man, it's like trying to determine how many eggs are in a carton of a dozen.

Your logic is severely flawed, in your fuel example as well. The stranded people wouldn't use any more or less fuel, they just didn't bring enough. If I had 300 gallons and I made it all the way there, and someone else had 150 gallons and ran out halfway, who "used more"?

[EGAZ]

Sad to say, since this is our little playa-away-from-The-Playa, but this is the correct answer. Most attendees have probably never even heard of us.

Can confirm. I asked everyone I met if they were on ePlaya, going to the M&G, very few ever heard of ePlaya....

Another precentage got their info off FB and other sites. What surprised me was the number that have been to BM.org, but not ePlaya.

[trilobyte]

That shouldn't be too much of a surprise.... hardly anyone reads things thoroughly anymore. Hell, they barely even skim the blatantly important stuff (I can not begin to tell you how many people ask questions that are answered in the two most obvious places to look, ticket info and the ticketing FAQ). ePlaya's linked on the site, but it's hardly a great big fat 'go here' kind of thing. That and historically this place had been a lot more rough and tumble (and more often than not scared people away), and not likely to be recommended.

[Traveller in Time]

Completely off topic: Why are the Journal comments not on e-Playa ?

Make it topic: the comments on Journal.burningman.org may be also part of the "posting metrics"

[EGAZ]

That and historically this place had been a lot more rough and tumble (and more often than not scared people away),

True. The other thing is some of the threads are years long. Many click onto ePlaya, see the hundred of pages and the thousands of posts and say, Funk Dat! I'm not reading all that!!

I post links to here all the time on FB and Reddit. I explain how to get info, (like I did, which means one needs to read a lot before asking questions) Some make the trip. I'm guessing some visit, then leave to FB, Reddit, etc. Heck Reddit is tougher than here many times!