CoVid-19 and The 2020 Burning Man Event

[Token]

In two - three weeks we will be where Italy is at ...
... then there is 6 to 8 weeks for the thing to peak ...

From China's reported numbers, after China hit 550 cases, it peaked 27 days later. 23 days after that on March 11, it reported active cases were down to 26% of that peak.
How do you get to your numbers?

China data is not applicable to the world cuz the world generally doesn’t have iron-clad communist rule.

My numbers are from standard epidemiology, case doubling every 5 to 8 days, exponential growth through saturation factors, both physiological and social/cultural.

The variables such as virulence, severity, morbidity, mortality and the likes tend to become less of a factor once they meet pandemic thresholds and the exponential nature of the spread overwhelms the variability. All these factors simply move the peak up/down by a week or few.

[Lonesomebri]

"...cuz the world generally doesn’t have iron-clad communist rule."

The BRCCP is ready to assist....

FB_IMG_1583972818380.jpg

[Traveller in Time]

Thinking positive but also expect the worst.

Live healthy (vitamins, exercise) eventually you will die anyway.
We will all get infected, unless you keep living like a hermit in solitude for the rest of your life.

It is worse then the flue, in some cases.

Be sensible with antibiotics and immumo effecting drugs your own resistance is key.

Spare bulk toilet paper may be an advantage. (?)

[Captain Goddammit]

Are people trying to shit the virus away?

[The Rod]

I've managed to shit away 34 years of my life so I'm hoping this isn't any different.

[Token]

We don't need the CDC to find a cure. Leave it up to private enterprise or other researchers, The folks who develop a vaccine and patent it will get rich beyond their dreams. That is probably more efficient then a bunch of white-coated lab rats existing on the taxpayer dime.

This is the kind of ignorance that is just Embarrassing!!!.

All those government funded lab rats at the NIH have a mandate to do research. Over 70% of all modern medicine, drugs, devices ... originate from the NIH.

The big Pharma Industrial Complex takes that publicly funded research and patents it, packages it, and sells it at multiple orders of magnitude costs for pure greed an profits.

That private sector you so praise would collapse if there was no publicly funded NIH to hold the backbone of research afloat.

You have been educated!!!

[some seeing eye]

We can all relax now! COVID-19 is completely under control. Jared is on it...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/1 ... ook-127941

[Canoe]

Are people trying to shit the virus away?

Not sure.
From the fuller buying patterns, it appears they're going to protect themselves from the virus by wrapping themselves in toilet paper soaked in alcohol gel, sprinkled with pasta, rice and beans.

[Traveller in Time]

Afrikaburn Cancelled

[Canoe]

Apparently there's now going to be free testing for Covid-19 in the United States...

(Rep. Katie) Porter then went after CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield, asking if he had any interest in knowing who in America had been infected or only the rich.

Redfield noted that he wanted to know if “all of America,” had been infected.
...
Porter pressed on.

“Dr. Redfield, I hope that answer weighs heavily on you. Because it is going to weigh heavily on me and on every American family. You don’t need to do any work to operationalize. You need to make a commitment to the American people so they come in to get tested. You can operationalize the payment structure tomorrow.”

“I think you’re an excellent questioner,” Redfield replied, “so my answer is yes.”

“Everybody in America hear that?” Porter asked. “You are eligible to go get tested for coronavirus and have that covered regardless of insurance. Please, if you believe you have the illness, follow precautions, call first, do everything the CDC and Dr. Fauci—god bless you for guiding Americans in this time. But do not let a lack of insurance worsen this crisis.”
...
(Stephen A. Crockett Jr.)
I did the math: a full battery of coronavirus testing costs at minimum $1,331.
I also did the legal research: the Administration has the authority to make testing free for every American TODAY.

https://www.theroot.com/watch-rep-katie ... 1842311586

[Canoe]

Uhhhhh.... how about 10X “as bad” as the flu! ...

Some numbers for you

Italy, March 13, 2020

17,660 Confirmed:

• 14,955 Positive (Active)
• 1,266 Deaths
• 1,439 Recovered

Some simple calculations:

• Resolved = Deaths + Recovered = 1,266 + 1,439 = 2,705
• Crude Fatality Rate = Deaths / Confirmed = 1,266 / 17,660 = 7.2%
  This is without all of the deaths that will accumulate from the current Detected infected population.
  And that population is still growing, up 16.9 % from yesterday.
  Eleven days ago, Italy had detected 2,036 cases.
  The U.S. is reporting 2,269 cases right now.
  • A CFR of 2.0 is twenty times more fatal than the flu.
  • That 7.2% is seventy-two times more fatal than the flu.
• And Italy has one of the better health care systems (should have been seeing a CFR between 0.7 and 2.0, closer to 0.7), but it is getting overwhelmed by the number of cases requiring hospitalization and treatment.
• That is why public health officials are taking the risk seriously and are asking you the public to take the risk seriously, and learn and practice the various preventative measures.
  .
• Resolved Case Fatality Rate = Deaths / Resolved = 1,266 / 2,705 = 46.8%
  Fortunately, only (2,705 / 17,660) 15.3% are Resolved, so the 46.8% is not considered valid.

.
.

Italy, march 13 2020 low res.png

[Canoe]

I got curious how Italy's numbers "looked".
Note: this doesn't indicate the portion of the Mild and Moderate cases within Home Isolation & Hospitalized that the World Health Organization says will typically suddenly crash to critical with many being fatal.
.
(opps - wrong data - mixed two days)
.
That's better.
But made me realize that over half (56.7%) of Confirmed cases are in hospital or dead.
.

Covid-19 Italy Cases - 2020-03-13.png

[Captain Goddammit]

Ok, so I have the best idea. Hear me out ya'll:

Zorbs.

Now I see it... how did I miss that?!

[lucky420]

We don't need the CDC to find a cure. Leave it up to private enterprise or other researchers, The folks who develop a vaccine and patent it will get rich beyond their dreams. That is probably more efficient then a bunch of white-coated lab rats existing on the taxpayer dime.

This is the kind of ignorance that is just Embarrassing!!!.

All those government funded lab rats at the NIH have a mandate to do research. Over 70% of all modern medicine, drugs, devices ... originate from the NIH.

The big Pharma Industrial Complex takes that publicly funded research and patents it, packages it, and sells it at multiple orders of magnitude costs for pure greed an profits.

That private sector you so praise would collapse if there was no publicly funded NIH to hold the backbone of research afloat.

You have been educated!!!

I seriously thought Molotov was joking/snarking

[Canoe]

I seriously thought Molotov was joking/snarking

All is explained, by a study that was fully-funded by the government.
Although already paid for, the study is only available behind a paywall of a third party.

[Canoe]

Trump's National Emergency testing update...

During today's press conference in which he declared the new coronavirus to be a national emergency, President Trump announced that Google was developing software that would be central to the US' containment strategy. Trump, along with Dr. Deborah Birx, the administration's Coronavirus Response Coordinator, said that Google's Web portal would be central to the process of helping US residents take advantage of a promised expansion of the country's testing capacity.

Google's role in the process was mentioned twice, first by Trump himself, who said, "Google is helping to develop a website. It's going to be very quickly done—unlike websites of the past—to determine whether a test is warranted, and to facilitate testing at a nearby convenient location." He went on to claim that Google currently had 1,700 engineers working on the project right now.

Two hours later, however, Google communications felt compelled to issue a statement saying that nearly everything about this is either not quite right or badly mistaken. The portal is being done by a different company, and isn't even ready for testing in the single location it's planned for: California's Bay Area.
...

We are developing a tool to help triage individuals for Covid-19 testing. Verily is in the early stages of development, and planning to roll testing out in the Bay Area, with the hope of expanding more broadly over time. We appreciate the support of government officials and industry partners and thank the Google engineers who have volunteered to be part of this effort.

...
As of this report, the administration had not not clarified what its actual plan is. Given that key figures in devising said plan were acting as if this portal were ready for use just a few hours ago, it may take them some time to develop one.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03 ... us-portal/

[Token]

We don't need the CDC to find a cure. Leave it up to private enterprise or other researchers, The folks who develop a vaccine and patent it will get rich beyond their dreams. That is probably more efficient then a bunch of white-coated lab rats existing on the taxpayer dime.

This is the kind of ignorance that is just Embarrassing!!!.

All those government funded lab rats at the NIH have a mandate to do research. Over 70% of all modern medicine, drugs, devices ... originate from the NIH.

The big Pharma Industrial Complex takes that publicly funded research and patents it, packages it, and sells it at multiple orders of magnitude costs for pure greed an profits.

That private sector you so praise would collapse if there was no publicly funded NIH to hold the backbone of research afloat.

You have been educated!!!

I seriously thought Molotov was joking/snarking

Either way, we covered. So LOL and Education , whatever creams the coffee.

<— these work and there is the snark font too

As my hippie friends say: “it’s all good”.

[lucky420]

Of course ^^ & hugs

[Token]

Since we mentioned gubermint...

... I find it curious that the main scientific bullhorn and lead on official testimony to both the public and Congress is led by the NIH.

The expectation based on the org chart would be for CDC to lead this clown show.

Basic chart is under the HHS - NIH does research, USDA does regulation, CDC does outbreak management.

I’m guessing Redfield may be in over his head. The whole testing fiasco is not getting nearly as much investigative reporting treatment as it should. Epic Fail CDC.

Thank goodness for the old Playa bins ... I got so many N95 respirators, all sterilized by 15 year old playa dust ... I feel rich!

[Canoe]

... CDC does outbreak management.
I’m guessing Redfield may be in over his head. The whole testing fiasco is not getting nearly as much investigative reporting treatment as it should. Epic Fail CDC.
Thank goodness for the old Playa bins ... I got so many N95 respirators, all sterilized by 15 year old playa dust ... I feel rich!

Does the CDC have enough of the proper staff left?

I've got N95, and then N99 and N100 cartridges for the full-face. Wait until the OCDs find out there's better than 95%.

[Canoe]

...
Italy, March 13, 2020
...
[*]Crude Fatality Rate = Deaths / Confirmed = 1,266 / 17,660 = 7.2%
...
[*]That 7.2% is seventy-two times more fatal than the flu.
[*]And Italy has one of the better health care systems (should have been seeing a CFR between 0.7 and 2.0, closer to 0.7), but it is getting overwhelmed by the number of cases requiring hospitalization and treatment.
...

To compare, here's China for March 13:

China is getting close to being able to have a Case Fatality Rate, as more of their reported cases (80,824) are resolved (68,617), 84.9%.
The Crude Fatality Rate (Deaths / Confirmed):

• 3.95% for China
• 4.54% for Hubei province
• 4.89% for Wuhan city
• 0.87% for China excluding Hubei province

• Hubei province has 83.9% of China's 80,824 Confirmed cases, and 96.4% (3,075) of China's Deaths.
  Hubei is 82.6% Resolved, with a Resolved Case Fatality Rate showing 5.49%.
• Wuhan city within Hubei has 61.9% of China's Confirmed cases, and 76.7% (2,446) of China's Deaths.
  Wuhan is 77.8% Resolved, showing a Resolved Case Fatality Rate of 6.29%.
• China non-Hubei has 16.1% of China's Confirmed cases and reports 114 Deaths. Cases are 97.53% Resolved, showing a Resolved Case Fatality Rate (Deaths / Resolved) of 0.90%.

[Canoe]

Here's the top Confirmed growing countries Confirmed curves, aligned to the day their count was closest to 400 cases.

Many have a surprising match out to where Italy continues upwards and South Korea starts to round flatter. Let's hope that the knowledge gained so far and the preventative measures being taken will let those following behind to round their numbers flatter sooner.

• You can see how Japan got their outbreaks clamped.
• South Korea took a while due to the huge outbreak associated with the religious group (9,000 reported symptoms...),
• but they appear to be rounding their Confirmed curve over towards flat nicely now.
• Italy and Iran are just heading upwards, and it looks like Spain is taking off after them.

I need to redo this looking at Current cases.
.

Covid-19 TOP Eight aligned 400 2020-03-14.png

[Canoe]

Adding Active cases doesn't add as much as I thought it would.
In time, it will show the rollover.
.

Covid-19 TOP Eight C&amp;A aligned 400 2020-03-14.png

[Kimo]

[quote=Canoe post_id=1199056 time=1584197984 user_id=49997]
Trump's National Emergency testing update...

[quote]During today's press conference in which he declared the new coronavirus to be a national emergency, President [b]Trump announced that Google was developing software that would be central to the US' containment strategy[/b]. Trump, along with Dr. Deborah Birx, the administration's Coronavirus Response Coordinator, said that Google's Web portal would be central to the process of helping US residents take advantage of a promised expansion of the country's testing capacity.

Google's role in the process was mentioned twice, first by Trump himself, who said, "Google is helping to develop a website. It's going to be very quickly done—unlike websites of the past—to determine whether a test is warranted, and to facilitate testing at a nearby convenient location." He went on to claim that Google currently had 1,700 engineers working on the project right now.

Two hours later, however, Google communications felt compelled to issue a statement saying that nearly everything about this is either not quite right or badly mistaken. The portal is being done by a different company, and [b]isn't even ready for testing in the single location it's planned for[/b]: California's Bay Area.
...
[quote]We are [b]developing a tool to help triage individuals for Covid-19 testing[/b]. Verily is [b]in the early stages of development, and planning to roll testing out in the Bay Area, with the hope of expanding more broadly over time[/b]. We appreciate the support of government officials and industry partners and thank the Google engineers who have volunteered to be part of this effort.[/quote]
...
As of this report, the administration had not not clarified what its actual plan is. Given that key figures in devising said plan were acting as if this portal were ready for use just a few hours ago, it may take them some time to develop one.
[/quote]
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03 ... us-portal/
[/quote]

Trump is such an idiot!
In a press conference at the White House, President Trump announced that 1,700 Google engineers were working on a coronavirus screening site. That site was supposedly the first step in a new screening process that would lead people from figuring out if their symptoms warranted more testing to the location of new “drive through” testing stations. But Trump was wrong. This screening site isn’t being developed by Google . Instead, it’s being built by Verily, Alphabet’s life science division.
I should mention that Verily is a company under the Alphabet umbrella, as is Google. Nonetheless, Trump spouts our fake news, which is exactly what he accuses the media of doing.

[Token]

Breaking Nooz!

Google releases comprehensive diagnostic tool for the POTUS to use over the duration of the Covid-19 crisis!



Saint God’s National Hospital

It’s got electrolytes!

[Canoe]

(theguardian)
United Kingdom coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

• The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
• The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.
• The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”
• It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.
• “A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology. “I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.
• If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.
• Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks. That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure.
• The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope.
• There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... spitalised

[Canoe]

A look at the current top

Note that the rising curve of China Active (Confirmed + Suspected - Deaths - Released) is not as usually presented. Usually we see just the Confirmed number graphed, which ignores what China said: that reported Suspected cases were Diagnosed Covid-19 Mild or Moderate non-lab-confirmed. Usually we see the rising Confirmed curve, then the sudden jump as 13,322 Moderate pneumonia CT imaged cases were administratively collected & transferred from Suspected into Confirmed so:

• they would be allowed to be treated (hopefully preventive of becoming severe), and
• with treatment at government expense.

Graphing strictly Confirmed + Suspected results in the jagged graph seen, as those Moderate cases were collected and Suspected count reduced, then 13,322 collected were all added to the Confirmed count on one day. The world howled about the hidden cases, as they hadn't paid attention to the Suspected non-lab-confirmed Mild & Moderate cases... The adjustment dashed line in the graph shows those collected & transfered proportioned to each day that the Suspected count shows they were collected.
.

COVID-19 TOP &amp; daily deaths 2020-03-15.png

[Canoe]

WASHINGTON (AP) — The first participant in a clinical trial for a vaccine to protect against the new coronavirus will receive an experimental dose on Monday, according to a government official.

The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. The official who disclosed plans for the first participant spoke on condition of anonymity because the move has not been publicly announced.

Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

Testing will begin with 45 young, healthy volunteers with different doses of shots co-developed by NIH and Moderna Inc. There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots, because they don’t contain the virus itself. The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects, setting the stage for larger tests.

https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1

[Canoe]

People were queuing outside Dutch coffee shops on Sunday to stockpile cannabis ahead of the closure of most public places in the Netherlands (~ed. for three weeks), Jennifer Rankin, the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, reports.

When it became known that Dutch coffee shops would be closing along with cafes and restaurants until 6 April, people rushed to stockpile cannabis. The daily newspaper Volkskrant reported that people were queuing outside coffee shops in cities across the Netherlands.

One student in Amsterdam, Juan, 21, told the paper he had bought nine slices of space cake for him and his eight roommates.

At least then it will be a bit more fun in the coming weeks. We have connected two Playstations. That space cake is for later. Tonight we will start with the Harry Potter marathon.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achter ... ~b3d448c9/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... atest-news

[Canoe]

One Italian province had early containment measures.
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USPopCompExpectedDeaths.2400x2400.jpeg

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