CoVid-19 and The 2020 Burning Man Event

[Canoe]

South Korea has made 274,504 tests:

• 8,236 Confirmed
• 361,297 negative
• 14,971 processing

Confirmed
38.48% Male
61.52 Female

Deaths
54.67% Male
45.33% Female

Ages 20 to 49 are 52.32% of cases, 2.66% of deaths.
Ages 50 and up are 41.4% of cases, 97.33% of deaths.

even if 80% cases are mild+moderate, which most young adults would be— imagine 80 young carriers vs 20 elderly carriers. The 20 elderly get hospitalized & reach limited others. But the 80 young mild carriers can infect maybe 800 others

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Covid-19 South Korea March 16 2020, Confirmed and Deaths by age.png

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https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mi ... g=&nPage=1

[Canoe]

Recent history on the effects of late vs early measures for containment.
This is why it's important to be aware (testing) of cases.

Wuhan began measures (city lockdown Jan 23) when they had 495 Confirmed cases and 23 deaths.
They had over 2000 ICU beds in use and near 20,000 hospitalizations.

Guangzhou began measures (public health level 1 Jan 23) when they had 7 Confirmed cases and 0 deaths.
They had 15 ICU beds in use and had under 300 hospitalizations.
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COVID-19 Measures taken - Late (495,23) ICUmax over 2,200, vs Early (7,0) ICUmax 15.jpg

[Token]

In other pandemic news ...

... I shaved my beard.

Last time a razor touched my face was 2009 ...

It feels fucking weird.

I look fucking weird with tan lines on my face.

But now I can proper fit my cartridge half-face respirator should I need to go shopping.

Pro “End Days” Tip: Practice shooting your long guns while wearing a respirator... fucker gets in the way and takes getting used to.

Stay Safe FKOs.

[Savannah]

You know it's serious when Token shaves his beard!

I've got a decent gas mask (which will probably get me arrested) and 2 N95's. One was a gift from my boss last year, because he was worried about my lungs in the desert (b'aaaw!) and one was in a clamshell packaging under my couch . . . just 'cause I'm a Burner like all y'all, and that's the kind of random crap that just turns up in the course of vacuuming.

I'll be really interested to see what happens with the 2020 event. Numerous sites have said that viruses like this one tend to hit in waves.

[Token]

Pics or it didn’t happen!

Trying to keep it fun for LeFrenchie
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B2BC9C28-B07A-4D11-A7A9-788E12707249.jpeg

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The beginning
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8599FA7F-215D-49A5-B65F-CDB3D3E9A10C.jpeg

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Pause worthy of consideration
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Final rendition.

Half-face respirator approved!
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[lucky420]

Hi Tokens face

[Just_Joe]

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Final rendition.

Half-face respirator approved!

If nothing else Token, you are my canary in the coal mine.
Be well.

and Jesus Fuck, you're ugly.

[Token]

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Final rendition.

Half-face respirator approved!

If nothing else Token, you are my canary in the coal mine.
Be well.

and Jesus Fuck, you're ugly.

Sure am, but I’m a look this good for a long time!

[XPTom]

172 days to grow it back...…

[Canoe]

... But now I can proper fit my cartridge half-face respirator should I need to go shopping. ...

Really?
So far for SARS-CoV-2, every research paper I've seen published that covered Transmission said:
Droplet Transmission - yes,
Aerosol/Airborne Transmission - no.
Has that changed while I was away?

I was driving my friend up into the "hills" where he wants to stay "alone" (one of 15 owner-occupied units in a large Covid-closed resort) for the next three weeks...
I was impressed with the stop at the liquor store on the way up. I pointed out that you only got the 15% discount for 12 or more bottles. He said that won't be a problem. Carrying them was. I wasn't aware that he drank that much in three weeks. I forgot about the nights out where I was designated driver and he was the designated drinker, and he'd have 16 to 34 large draft in a night. Good job he was only getting hard liquor and wine, and not any beer. Not enough room in the car. He killed a bottle of wine the first evening in a drinking game over the phone with his girlfriend...
He brought food from home, plus we did a round through Costco. He looked at the basket and said, we have to go around again, and we did. Up where he is, if the store is open, it's a mile there and a mile back, so not too bad.
He almost brought his coffee roaster, but he managed to roast and grind enough to last him three weeks, but he "has to" drink coffee from pre-ground beans for those three weeks.

... Pro “End Days” Tip: Practice shooting your long guns while wearing a respirator... fucker gets in the way and takes getting used to.

Whole new meaning to cheek weld.

[BBadger]

Really?
So far for SARS-CoV-2, every research paper I've seen published that covered Transmission said:
Droplet Transmission - yes,
Aerosol/Airborne Transmission - no.
Has that changed while I was away?

The research is ongoing with SARS-CoV-2, but there are some indications that it is stable in aerosols.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... s-surfaces

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/cor ... an-doomed/

The unique ability of measles to infect via aerosols is a reason why it's so contagious compared to other viruses..
Given the contagiousness of this virus compared to other coronaviruses, it could indicate that the virus also has the ability to stay active and airborne for longer periods.

Most of the assessments regarding the methods of transmission for Covid-19 are based on previous coronaviruses, but this is a new strain. Hopefully, it keeps some of the features that limit the spread of other coronaviruses, while avoiding other features such as regular mutations, making it a perennial visitor.

[Token]

... But now I can proper fit my cartridge half-face respirator should I need to go shopping. ...

Really?
So far for SARS-CoV-2, every research paper I've seen published that covered Transmission said:
Droplet Transmission - yes,
Aerosol/Airborne Transmission - no.
Has that changed while I was away?

I was driving my friend up into the "hills" where he wants to stay "alone" (one of 15 owner-occupied units in a large Covid-closed resort) for the next three weeks...
I was impressed with the stop at the liquor store on the way up. I pointed out that you only got the 15% discount for 12 or more bottles. He said that won't be a problem. Carrying them was. I wasn't aware that he drank that much in three weeks. I forgot about the nights out where I was designated driver and he was the designated drinker, and he'd have 16 to 34 large draft in a night. Good job he was only getting hard liquor and wine, and not any beer. Not enough room in the car. He killed a bottle of wine the first evening in a drinking game over the phone with his girlfriend...
He brought food from home, plus we did a round through Costco. He looked at the basket and said, we have to go around again, and we did. Up where he is, if the store is open, it's a mile there and a mile back, so not too bad.
He almost brought his coffee roaster, but he managed to roast and grind enough to last him three weeks, but he "has to" drink coffee from pre-ground beans for those three weeks.

... Pro “End Days” Tip: Practice shooting your long guns while wearing a respirator... fucker gets in the way and takes getting used to.

Whole new meaning to cheek weld.

[Canoe]

Really?
So far for SARS-CoV-2, every research paper I've seen published that covered Transmission said:
Droplet Transmission - yes,
Aerosol/Airborne Transmission - no.
Has that changed while I was away?

The research is ongoing with SARS-CoV-2, but there are some indications that it is stable in aerosols.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-re ... s-surfaces
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/cor ... an-doomed/

This is why I go for the underlying paper.
The study tested for the viability of the virus if it got into aerosol.
It does not address if the virus can get into aerosol by natural human activities.

• Aerosols (<5 μm) containing SARS-CoV-2 (105.25 50% tissue-culture infectious dose [TCID50] per milliliter) or SARS-CoV-1 (106.75-7.00 TCID50 per milliliter) were generated with the use of a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum to create an aerosolized environment.
• Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible

https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

Plausible, but no evidence that humans are expelling SARS-CoV-2 aerosols.

• The studies suggesting that it can be aerosolized are only preliminary, and other research contradicts it, finding no aerosolized coronavirus particles in the hospital rooms of Covid-19 patients.
• The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic.
• But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols.
• “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”
• A study by virologist Ke Lan of Wuhan University and his colleagues found that “rare” does not mean “never,” however.
  - They took 35 air samples at two hospitals as well as public areas in Wuhan, where the Covid-19 outbreak apparently started. They found no coronavirus in intensive care areas where Covid-19 patients were being treated, in general patient rooms, in hallways, or outside the hospitals.
  - But coronavirus aerosols were found near patients’ toilets in Wuchang Fangcang Field Hospital. That wasn’t a total shock: Receptors for coronavirus exist not only in the airways but also in the gastrointestinal tract, so cells there can become infected, shedding virus into fecal material.
  The paper, posted to a preprint site, has not been peer-reviewed.
• The NIAID study “is measuring virus under ideal conditions and with a lot of virus,” said microbiologist Benjamin ten Oever of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. “So their results are all likely to be overestimates.
• A 2014 analysis concluded that “airborne spread was the most likely explanation, and the SARS coronavirus could have spread over a distance of 200 meters,” or about 600 feet, apparently starting with a SARS patient who had diarrhea.

[*]Note that Covid-19 does have intestinal virus shedding (and greater numbers than respiratory shedding), and violent diarrhea can produce fine droplets that can disperse up to 200 metres (656 feet).

There's still a question about the one transmission in the apartment building (Singapore?), that had a fault in the toilet lines in the unit where someone became infected from someone infected living a few units above. Did the transmission happen due to, in order of most likely:

• droplets expelled into the bathroom by the faulty pipes,
• aerosol created by high-pressure air/liquid applied to fecal-contaminated liquids,
• aerosols generated by human flowing into the bathroom.

But last I'd heard it was still undetermined.

There's a huge difference in transmission epidemic consequence between aerosols created in an air-managed isolation hospital setting vs. naturally expelled by someone walking down the street. Given how contagious SARS-CoV-2 is, R0 would have been through the roof. But it could certainly contribute to understanding how so many medical staff become infected in Wuhan.

Until in-field aerosol transmission is indicated, I'm skipping the full-face respirator with N100 and going with the one metre droplet expelling distance. Or for more droplet protection, the large/thick cotton bandana that can cover face over nose, including beard, down to the chest and around to behind the neck.

[Canoe]

Overview
Active cases, known infected/contagious

• China ~8,000
• Rest of world 99,602

Covid-19 Overview 2020-03-17.png

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COVID-19 TOP &amp; daily deaths 2020-03-17.png

[Canoe]

infection curves of Confirmed
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Covid-19 TOP C&amp;A aligned 400 2020-03-17.png

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Covid-19 TOP Eight &amp; DP 2020-03-17.png

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[Lightspeed]

you don't have much to worry about. It's only twice as bad as the flu. So instead of 1% dying it will be 2%. Big deal. Just don't shake hands or hug and you should be ok.

This kind of language is bonkers.

Not really. Dump fired all the staff at CDC over a year ago because he thought it was a waste of money. So we're way behind in testing ability and a vaccine. But it's not much different than the flu. A bit of precaution, hand washing, avoiding crowds in contained spaces, not shaking hands, washing you hands (repeated because it's the most important) and we'll all survive. Especially if you're under 60. At 72 I'm pretty healthy, so even if I get exposed I'm optimistic that I'll survive... As most everyone will. Now stop the panic and start thinking positive.

No. I think saying to people "you don't have much to worry about", and using vague made-up language and science like "only twice as bad as the flu" is irresponsible. And then to further suggest "just don't shake hands or hug and you should be ok"...that right there is already counter to what most of the experts suggest.

I know Pres. Dump killed the CDC, true to his form, unfortunately.

[mournlight]

Canoe (and anyone else), I've been thinking a lot about the porta potties on playa. Your comments regarding the toilets and possible transmission in Singapore(?) bring it to mind again. Who knew diarrhea could shoot so far.

If this pandemic settles enough for BM to happen, it sounds reasonable based on what I'm reading that we will still need to be more mindful of sanitation. In spite of how often they are cleaned, unless you're the first person to use them, the portos aren't very sanitary, especially by the weekend. I'm thinking about what we can all do to be more prepared regarding viral transmission on the playa.

My camp uses a shower system with 3 pump outs. We haven't been providing hand washing. We do have a hospitality area where snacks and coffee are generally available.

I'd love to hear input. I'm thinking of these changes for my camp and burners in general:
-Each burner bring more water to allow for hand-washing (or hand sanitizer if we can get it by then)
-Set up portable hand-washing stations in camp
-Why couldn't at least one porto at each line be set up as a reservoir for a hand-washing sink?
-Consider more use of personal toilets so as to avoid porto usage (use them more for dumping)
-Encourage more sanitizing of personal cups
-Do more bleaching of the shower, coffee spigot, tables, etc after usage
-Encourage everyone to bring enough water and food for an additional four-five days

What else? Assuming we burn this year, how can we be more prepared? Can you imagine if we had an outbreak there, and were told to shelter in place on playa an additional few days? I don't think that's an unreasonable scenario to plan for at this point, do you? Even though the org is more prepared than people realize, there still would be some chaos. I always bring too much, but I may bring even more of too much this year.

I'm ready to have my ideas trashed.

[Canoe]

Glastonbury's famous Pyramid Stage will remain dark in June, as the festival becomes the latest event to be cancelled due to coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-51942898

China shows 81,202 cases, 3,242 deaths.
Iran adds 1,192 cases, 147 deaths, to 17,361 & 1,135.
Spain adds 2,084 cases, 90 deaths, to 13,910 & 623.
Germany adds 753 cases, 1 death, to 10,120 & 27.
S. Korea adds 92 cases and 3 deaths, to 8,413 & 84.
France showing 7,730 cases and 175 deaths.
USA adds 976 cases and 7 deaths, to 7,387 & 116.
others reporting are each under 4,000 cases and each under 100 deaths.

[some seeing eye]

"President Trump’s surprisingly sober press conference on Monday was reportedly sparked by a British study suggesting that the U.S. could face 2.2 million fatalities if the coronavirus epidemic goes unabated.

The report — embedded below — was put together by a team of epidemiologists at Imperial College London."

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker ... d-response

[Canoe]

People attending a festival in Panama have been put on lockdown after the country declared a state of emergency over the coronavirus, organisers say.

The Tribal Gathering festival said officials had taken the "extraordinary step" of ordering all guests at the site to remain there until 23 March.

Katie Hughes, who played and worked at the festival, said the event was allowed to continue until its last day on Sunday, when the government was expected to provide transport to take all attendees to the capital, Panama City. ... everybody was forced to stay on site until the result of a test on Monday, which came back negative. On Monday afternoon, ... the evacuation was interrupted again amid rumours that the government had imposed a lockdown on the festival and that nobody would be allowed to leave.

Ms Hughes estimated some 300 people had been unable to leave, including citizens from the UK, the US, Germany and France. The nearest town to the festival site, Sabanitas, is some two hours away, according to the event's website.

Ms Hughes said. "We don't know what's going to happen about them getting food or water as the festival is obviously all closed down, no music, nothing."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51936132

[Canoe]

"President Trump’s surprisingly sober press conference on Monday was reportedly sparked by a British study suggesting that the U.S. could face 2.2 million fatalities if the coronavirus epidemic goes unabated.

The report — embedded below — was put together by a team of epidemiologists at Imperial College London."

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker ... d-response

https://doi.org/10.25561/77482

[Canoe]

... USA adds 976 cases and 7 deaths, to 7,387 & 116. ...

Italy sure reported in.
4,207 more Confirmed, 475 more Deaths.
2,629 heath care workers (8.3%) are infected.
In the Lombardy region (where they delayed taking containment measures), 118 out of 600 family doctors are infected.

U.S. already up again, 8,019 Confirmed, 125 Deaths.
Globally, 18,207 more Confirmed, 941 more Deaths: 216,626 Confirmed, 8,908 Deaths.

Since the U.S. Confirmed curve seems to best be following where Italy went, here's what Italy looks like.
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Covid-19 Italy cases 2020-03-18.png

[Canoe]

China reported meaningful success with treating Severe patients with anti-bodies collected from Recovered patients. They were promoting this to get Recovered patients to donate.

Treatment had to be carefully timed to be effective. Treatment was timed to when the patient's immune system had degraded, then revived some in prelude to crashing, and if administered just before the immune system started to crash, not too early and not too late, it could prevent that crash and would buy the patient more time in which to attempt to recover. With that and other treatments, they moved the course of the disease out from four weeks to eight weeks, deaths dropping off and Recovered tallies growing.
I haven't heard more on that.

Then there's

• try to develop an antibody-based prophylactic. This would be an antibody that targets some feature of the virus
• The virtue of this kind of a product is that it would basically be a monthly injection, that you would use it for either frontline healthcare workers or patients who are vulnerable—nursing home patients or immunocompromised patients, maybe people who are going to chemotherapy, people with significant heart disease or lung dysfunction. You give it to them monthly and it would be a prophylactic that could protect them against coronavirus.

Gottlieb: You are going to want two things. One is a point of care diagnostic. You’re going to want a diagnostic that you can deploy to doctor’s offices so that you can diagnose people really easily so that when you find people who have coronavirus, you can quarantine them. ...

The other thing you’re going to want is an extremely robust surveillance system. You’re going to want a system that basically looks at people who present with influenza-like illness but who test negative for the flu. And you then test their samples to see what they have. We currently do that. We have a surveillance system distributed throughout multiple cities and we take a certain number of samples—it’s a small amount—it’s not tens of thousands but thousands and we test them for other things to see what is circulating in the population. We also do that to try to have an early detection in case, like, a pandemic flu stream is circulating. But we don’t do it for this novel coronavirus and we don’t do it on a mass scale.

What you’re going to want by the fall is to really blow that out, do it at a mass scale, and obviously build out the capability to do it for coronavirus. Because this coronavirus is not really going to come and go. It’s going to be with us. And unless we have those kinds of tools available to us and this kind of surveillance system in place, this is going to change daily life in perpetuity until we have a vaccine. And that’s not sustainable. The kind of posture that the nation is in right now isn’t sustainable. And another major epidemic won’t be sustainable. So we need the tools to change the landscape for how we deal with this and people need to be really focused on that right now because I think we got caught a little flat-footed with this epidemic.

there is now good evidence that people who even become mildly infected to coronavirus develop a sustainable immunity

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ne ... zon-134147

[Canoe]

... U.S. already up again, 8,019 Confirmed, 125 Deaths.
Globally, 18,207 more Confirmed, 941 more Deaths: 216,626 Confirmed, 8,908 Deaths. ...

Up again.
9,014 for the U.S..

Globally, less than a hundred away from breaking 20,000 new cases today.
And at 8,927 Deaths, that might break 9,000.

The young (under 50) thinking they get a free ride isn't turning out as they thought.
Hospitalizations and ICU interventions are still occurring, just not as many deaths.

Covid-19 hospitalizations, ICU, deaths - USA.jpg

[Token]

there is now good evidence that people who even become mildly infected to coronavirus develop a sustainable immunity

And that there is critical with all the efforts out there to develop a vaccine. Without a lasting immune response a vaccine would be a pipe dream.

Now why the frack we don’t already have an antibody test is beyond comprehension.

[Canoe]

https://www.genengnews.com/news/to-deve ... -platform/

Within a week of receiving a blood sample from one of the first U.S. patients to recover from COVID-19, AbCellera, a Canadian therapeutic antibody discovery company, put its rapid pandemic response platform to work, identifying more than 500 unique fully human antibody sequences, the largest panel of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies reported to date.
... the Dale and Betty Bumpers Vaccine Research Center of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). The Center will assess those antibodies, and find those with the greatest potential against COVID-19 by identifying antibodies that bind the pandemic strain of SARS-CoV-2 the best.

NY Times got a hold of the "not for public distribution or release" PanCAP Adapted U.S. Government COVID-19 Reponse Plan.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper ... d/full.pdf


Infographic on Italy available at
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... ianza-dati
the current one is
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... %20ENG.pdf
Includes,

Covid-19 Italy - Presentation of Confirmed in infographic mar 18 2020.png

[Canoe]

22,984 more global cases detected today... so far.
Likely pass a quarter million tomorrow.
Over an additional thousand global deaths today, so far. At 9,989, it's pretty much a given that the global total will exceed 10,000 before the day is out.

Comparative size of Confirmed between Wuhan, Hubei, China, World, for February 18, March 1, March 18, 2020.

Covid-19 Confirmed, Wuhan, Hubei, China, World, Feb 28, Mar 1, Mar 18 2020.png

[Popeye]

[Sham]

I'm really jealous. The United States really needs someone in charge like her---not the jibbering pile of orange mucus that we have now.

[some seeing eye]

Merkel has a PhD in quantum chemistry. Most of the Chinese leadership are engineers. We have an individual who was sent to military school to improve their behavior, which failed, and all their grades after are "classified."

From a practical standpoint, an easy and highly effective thing to do is to chart your and your family's temperature daily. Actually normal is a little below 98.6F.

Burners would never be: right?