The Long Cold Winter

[ygmir]

it seems I remember somewhere that a healthy economy requires around 10% unemployment..........you need a pool of willing and able workers for new ventures..........

I think part of our outsourcing problem is that for quite a few years, unemployment has been so low, you can't find people that need jobs, that, can and will actually work..........

Many of my friends with businesses complained about the fact that everyone that was worth hiring already had a job, and, you had to steal good workers............

I found in hiring people, they expected to start and learn at a pretty high wage, and, even at that, didn't show up, or, came in late, or, if the work was hard, just walked away.............and or were mentally challenged enough I couldn't train them anyway.........

It's not that I don't feel for anyone losing their job, either. That's a huge bummer, and, life altering at times...........

[can't sit still]

Americans are a long way from lowering their expectatations. I hear that Boeing is going on strike. As the US moves into the global economy, it can expect to get global wages. I see that plasterers in Seattle are offering to work for 1/3 their historical wages. This will take a long time to sink in for most people.
As the purchasing power of the dollar declines, we want more money. The Mexican maquiladores are losing jobs to China. The Chinese are losing jobs to other asian tigers.
Americans are accustomed to working for luxuries. We compete against people who work for survival. Capital follows cheap labor. The money is leaving. It won't come back, logicly, until our labor rates are attractive.

Our corporatocracy, or kleptocracy if you prefer, is not kind to people who are not producing. Millions are on food stamps and over 10% of Americans report "food insecurity" The war industry is sucking up all the money that might be used for cushioning the crash of those who lose their jobs.
Half the people in Ohio and Michigan are on food stamps and GOV doesn't show any sign of addressing the basic problems. As jobs in these states leave with the capital, what future can these people look towards? It's not so much that the jobs have left. It's the fact that GOV has no ability or interest in bringing them back.
We've priced ourselves out of manufacturing. I would suspect that we can look forward to a permanent unemployment rate of about 25% until our labor rates are competitive. About 50% work directly or indirectly for GOV and get paid with borrowed money. I doubt that this can go on forever.
Dan

[ygmir]

I think a lot of the overpriced labor relates directly to unions.........they started out as a necessity, and, did the good work, but, IMHO, now, they are bloated and driving companies out of business..........they require not just a very good wage (in comparison to non union doing the same job), but, a huge amount of money, for, what I call, "Protection"...........

And, high labor equates to high prices, and so on........

[can't sit still]

Here's an interesting vid on "Fraudie and Phoney" http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... rmath.html
The guy makes some good legal points about stock ownership.
GOV is trying to maintain confidence in the economy. Then, at the same time, it wipes out all the stockholders in Mac and Mae. With a precident like this, nobody will hold paper in big institutions that show any weakness. ALL the banks reported to the St Louis FED that they have negative unborrowed assets. Their balance sheets are soon to be reported publicly. The stockholders will try to dump Citi, B of A, WaMu, Wachovia, etc just as fast as they tried to dump Mac and Mae. Some of them didn't get out in time. That will be a lesson the next time around.

Even Wells Fargo, after saying that they're fine, went out and borrowed 2 billion at 9.75%. They can only loan out this money at 6%.
All the banks are hanging on to threads hoping that some money will come in. At the same time, commercial loans and credit cards are starting to blow,,, just like residential loans.
The equity loss so far is reported at 6 trillion. The financial industry loss so far is 1/2 trillion with another 1 1/2 trillion to go. Some of this paper is leveraged at 20 or 30 to 1. Some even higher. When it unwinds, the leverage goes backwards.
Since the cost of the average house has to be affordable to the average worker, it is speculated that the price of houses in the oversupplied areas will drop below the cost of the building materials used in that house's construction.

Paul Volker said that the financial problems are the most complex that he's ever seen. He was too polite to say fucked up instead of complex. He's the guy who straightened out the mess last time we went into serious inflation.
As investors lose their shirts, there's less money spent into the economy. Everyone who depends on descretionary spending for their livlihood will see reductions.
GOV would very much like to avoid a downward spiral of reduced spending/job losses, but, it won't do anything meaningful about jobs.
It's too preoccupied with stealing oil.
We have the psychotic ex-president of Haliburton running the show and he doesn't give a damn about jobs.
Here's something to keep it all in perspective; http://www.rense.com/general72/size.htm
Dan

[can't sit still]

As the economy softens, investors can make money by "shortselling" a stock. Since there are so many weak companies, shortselling has become very popular and lucrative. If investors believe that a company is weak, they short sell it. When others learn of the shortselling, they assume that it is for a very real reason and they bail out of the company [simplified].

The current problem is that investors [sharks] are shortselling any company that they believe that they can drag down by their actions. Even Bear-Stearns was brought down by malicious actions by Goldman. Since there is no money to be made in the stock market under present conditions, the sharks have turned to canabalism.
Lehman Bros is dead. It's expected that Merril-Lynch will be next,,, also WaMu. Wall Street is eating their own all in the hopes of consolidating and destroying the competition.
In typical American shortsightedness, the big players believe that they can survive. They believe that now is the time to destroy and buy the competition.
They don't seem to care that they're destroying confidence in the banking system.
Goldman-Sachs doesn't seem too worried that this contraction has just begun. The default problem has moved into prime loans as well as credit card, student loans, commercial loans as well as SIVs and CDOs, etc.
There are still 2 years left of major loan interest resets.

There have been $6 trillion lost in equity. The bozos in the banks seem to think that the $ 1/2 trillion that they've already lost is the end of it.
Continued job losses and 2 more years of interest resets will make all their loss projections useless.
The banks are obligated to pay everything out that they owe regardless of wether or not they are receiving anything. They already admit to being insolvent. How long do they think that they can continue until they reach illiquidity?
We're losing banks every week. The overwhelming consensus is that next year will be much worse. The sharks will continue to consume any Bank that they can destroy.
Paulson put a moratorium on naked short-selling for 19 banks for 30 days. If he doesn't do more to stop short-selling, the banks will fall week after week. Our economy functions on credit.
I doubt that Barky/McCain have a viable plan to create good jobs.
If we could switch from a war economy to an infrastructure building economy, we might stop the spiral.
GOV will never face up to the fact that GOV is the major problem. I don't see an obvious solution as long as GOV is running the show.

[can't sit still]

Monday looks to be bad; http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/ ... omment-644

[can't sit still]

First, a disclaimer. I have no schooling as an economist. I read and I report what I think is important.
I figured out what road we were on 3 years ago.
Greenspan lowered the interest rates too far 5 years ago. The FBI knew that there would be a bubble and asked for more personel in their real estate fraud division. Their personel level was cut 93%.
The FED created zillions of dollars and told the banks to lend it to any warm body. We marked these loans AAA and sold them to the whole world. The banks knew that AAA was bogus but bought them anyway. [drinking the koolade]
Then, the banks got really stupid. Lehman bros had 1.56% reserves.
"With a look back, at how a company that survived the Civil War, the railroad bankruptcies, the Panics, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, and the Cold War couldn’t survive the biggest financial boom in Wall Street history? Or a look ahead, at what will happen after one of the biggest dealers in the $400 trillion derivative market bites the dust? Lehman has $615 billion in bebt"
Even Goldman-Sachs and Morgan-Stanley are looking shaky. The short-sellers have then in their sights.
Both B of A and CITI have huge amounts of bad paper. Trillions. They're trying to wait it out for money to come in so that they can meet their obligations and survive.
Since western style capitalism is just a Ponzi scheme, they need a continuous infusion of new capital. The SIVs, CDOs, ABSs etc were/are just a rearrangement of existing capital,,, not new blood.
As it becomes obvious that the economy is shrinking, there isn't any new debt issued. NO new fees,,, NO new paper. It's become perfectly obvious to every prospective homebuyer that we're a long way from bottom. No loans, no fees, no derrivative sales. NO new money to the banks. We have 2 years to go of serious loan resets. The banks have NO prospects for income.
The bank loans you $100,000 to buy a house. You pay back $300,000 total. They figure their profit based on a fixed inflation rate. If the inflation rate goes way up, your payback isn't worth squat. The banks are facing inflation so bad that they won't gain even if you do pay back the whole loan.

It costs 30--50 thou $ to do the foreclosure paper. They lose on the interest, They lose on the huge devaluation. They lose on the paper processing. Most of the banks have no future.
Our shithead GOV is trying to re-inflate the bubble by giving the Federal Home Loan agency unlimited access to treasury money. They also want to squeeze out money to refi existing loans that are going to reset. GOV can't face the fact that the prices are never going to come back and people are going to walk by the thousands.
Fucking GOV have their head up their collective asses so far, they can't see around them.

Japan had a property bubble burst 18 years ago. They've now had 18 years to recover. That's nice. Commercial property in Tokyo is selling for 1% of it's bubble price. Residential property is selling for 10% of it's bubble price. The US has more oil than Japan. Japan has more savings than the US. It's hard to compare apples and oranges.

After all is said and done, the price of a house has to reflect the wages in the same area. There's no getting around this. As we get global economy, we get global wages. Some niches my be an exception, but in general, people have to be able to afford a house to buy it.
China keeps buying our debt as long as we buy their junk. As our economy dries up, we'll spend a lot less for Chinese crap. Also, the cost of shipping has gone way up; http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... emand.html
The Chinese are going to stop buying our bonds one of these days.

The foreign exchange trades $3.2 trillion every day. If investors get tired of our dollars, things could change very quickly. Our current economy is referred to as the "FIRE" economy. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate.
Finance is dead because we ripped off too many people with our Koolade. Real estate is dead because it was way over valued and nobody is going to buy until a bottom is established. American Insurance Group is dead because they invested in Koolade like all the rest. They had a $1 trillion balance sheet. Insurance isn't a good bet. Especially now that the violent weather is destroying more trailer parks.
The thing that everyone is afraid of is the counterparty exposure. EVERYONE drank some of this koolade. Now , everyone is exposed to Lehman, Bear-Stearns, Merril, WaMu and on down the line. The country has lost $6 trillion in equity so far. It has to come out of someone's pocket. Not the guy who walked.
The investor class is rapidly going broke. The US GDP is $15 trillion,,, in good years. Subtract $6 trillion and somebody is going to notice.

Years ago Greenspan boasted that he could bypass the Kondratieff winter by dumping liquidity into the economy. Bernanke is famous for saying that he would drop cash from helicopters. Bankers believe their own BS. Liquidity is not wealth.
They're creating "money" at about 19%. If you see a black helicopter over your house, run out with a shopping cart
Normally, with this liquidity infusion, the economy would slowly inflate. The world has really changed. Things are happening so fast, it takes your breath away. You can expect the price of houses to continue to fall as fewer and fewer prospective buyers are willing to enter a falling market. Very few can get financing.
Wages are going nowhere. They have gone nowhere in Japan. Commodities are falling some but food commodities are going to go way up pretty soon. It's going to get realy crazy.

It's expected that a few thousand banks are going to fail. For every bank that fails, people have less and less confidence. The banks have no money but have recieved $6.24 trillion in deposits. A bank run would be the ultimate horror. Four tenths of a percent of US money is in paper and much of this circulates outside of the country. I had the numbers somewhere,,, I believe that there is something like $950 dollars per person.

The SEC is trying to ban short selling or naked short selling. I'm not clear.
This will help a bit. The plunge protection team is buying up lots of stocks to punish short sellers.
The day of reconning has been postponed so long that, it can't be denied much longer. The fantastic speed of events means that it will arrive with a global crash. It was expected to wait til 2009. I doubt it.

If Iran is attacked or if the US defaults, it will get VERY ugly.
And, I wish all you Burners a good evening.
Dan

[Ugly Dougly]

Seems to me there is a pattern of de-regulation before disasters and re-regulation after disasters.

[can't sit still]

Dougly, the US senate passed the Glass-Steagall act in 1935 to prevent the excesses caused by the "pools". Fast-forward a few decades; Greenspan convinced the senate to junk the act. This fostered the creation of the funds. Same animal,, different name.
Greenspan should be given a LOT more credit for this credit destruction. He was the main front man and architect.
There are lots of guesses who is behind it all.

Currently, the US is borrowing tons of money to do these bailouts. The interest on all these loans is $2 billion a day. It's all guaranteed by the "full faith and credit of the US government" Since we're no longer competitive in many areas, our creditors are eyeing the exits. Nobody wants to be left holding the bag so, things don't look so good.
In search of safety, many investors are buying treasury bonds. The treasury has money coming in. It's anybody's guess what they'll do with it.
Dan

[Ugly Dougly]

There are lots of guesses who is behind it all.

Not the Illuminati, that's crazy talk. Crazy.

[ygmir]

There are lots of guesses who is behind it all.

Not the Illuminati, that's crazy talk. Crazy.

I think it's the Jehovah's Witnesses.........

Of course, we've not see the Rev. Sun Myung Moon it a while.........perhaps he's gone covert and is really .............

[can't sit still]

Maybe it's the LDS. The Mormons have been buying tons of farmland for years.
You know what they say; follow the money trail. Who gives Greenspan his marching orders?
Just like the last time ["29], some people made a killing buying up assets at fire sale price.
This time, it's different. B of A is getting indigestion from eating too much Countrywide. Goldman is getting heartburn trying to digest Bear.
I really believe that the PTB have lost control. There's always the possibility that the Rockefellers, et al don't care about losses if they can achieve the end results that they want.
Look at Japan though; nobody won. It's a stalemate. Big social changes don't come from a stalemate. The phoenix won't rise unless there's a conflagration.
The stated cause of a few groups is to bring about world banking and world GOV. They also state that they want to destroy nationalism in the name of peace.
John Lennon wrote about a world without causes. It will never happen in a world without universal birth control. If this birth control can't be proactive,,,,,, well, it's just going to have to be retroactive.

There is a lot of hate-mongering against the muslims. The Christian right considers them to be tools of the devil. I drove around in the middle-east to get my own impressions. The Muslims cling to a seventh century mentality as protection against the erosive powers of modern life.

Obviously, one has to make different comments depending if a muslim is Shia or Sunni. Since Muslims turned their back on education centuries ago, they live by an antiquated set of guidelines. Kill non-believers, honor killings, women as chattel,,,, things like that.

The muslims are like many groups. They seem to get along OK until they get a good quorum. In Australia, they tried to chase bathers off the beach because they were offensive to god. The Aussies, with their well-know delicate sense of humor returned ,en masse, to the beach the next day wearing T-shirts that read "Ethnic Cleansing Unit"

Europe is starting to wake up and realise that the muslims are not going to integrate. This economic downturn is going to bring out serious problems; http://www.theoccidentalquarterly.com/a ... dwara.html
We are going into a global downturn. The central banks are panicked. It's easy to see the speed. It's impossible to see the bottom. It's not beyond possibility that the PTB are going to crash the world to set free the Phoenix.
We're in for quite a ride

[Ugly Dougly]

The phoenix won't rise unless there's a conflagration.

Spoken like a burner. You, I salute!

[can't sit still]

Dougly, thanks very much for the salute.
There is much to read about in the financial news. I don't need to be smart. I just need to report what the smart people are saying;

"But I wouldn't be surprised if the Dow sinks to 8,000. When you add up the data it equals Depression," said Celente, who also accurately predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the Asian currency crisis, the last two recessions and the dot.com bust, to name a few of his major calls."
http://www.rense.com/general83/cele.htm

This part is of interest to stockholders. This language is in the AIG bailout;
"The conglomerate financial firms are permitted at this point to use private individual brokerage account funds to relieve their own liquidity pressures. This represents unauthorized loans of your stock account assets. So next, if the conglomerate fails, your stock account is part of the bankruptcy process"
Is it any wonder that partricipants are leaving in droves from AIG? WE will be left holding the crapo, while all the worthwhile assets have flown the coop.
"Perhaps because the threat of default for USTreasurys is seen as inevitable, even imminent"
"Since the Bear Stearns bailout killjob merger by JPMorgan, all Wall Street investment banks are aligned in similar fashion, with common bond risk and common counter-party risk. So when one Wall Street firm goes down, several will immediately go down, and AIG is the umbilical cord to the Main Street economy"

" Nations led by Russia, China, Arabs, and Japanese are meeting to form a formal committee. They have a common purpose, to maintain and manage massive US$-based debt securities in danger. So they are working to organize a committee of giant USTreasury Bond creditors. They wish to confront the US debtor with a single voice. Regard this important step as a prelude to possible default of the USTreasurys "
The Market Oracle.
It serves no purpose for me to be wildly pessimistic in this thread. I try to be even or balanced. I write to the larger Burner community so that they can judge if this info is accurate.
I am hoping for a crash in that it might bring about a change from our debt'slave economy. It will also bring death and suffering. The latest research says that 7.4 million Americans starved in the great depression. That was back when many people lived on the farm and could provide basic sustinance.
In many choices in life, we chose the perceived lesser of two evils. Do we continue on in the anthill society, the kleptocracy that demands that we produce until we die? Do we continue to suffer the trampeling of the human spirit, the erosion of freedoms and rights, a future so bleak that we don't want to bring our offspring into the ugly world?
Do we burn it all down, hoping that greed will not take the seat at the head of the table the next time around?

I've never been much of a participant in the kleptocracy. I saved money, bought dirt, cut down trees, and built a house,,, just using my savings.

No democracy has ever survived, no fiat currency has ever survived. This might be the rationale for my tiny pessimistic streak. History will be our final witness; http://richleonardi.blogspot.com/2006/0 ... e-not.html
Dan

It looks like America is in serious danger.
Edit, this pic is too much; http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post48757

[can't sit still]

Brought to you from Rabbi Ricks Ranch. I'm out in the desert getting ready for the party.
Bush wants to ask congress for $700 billion. He needs to ask the Chinese. They're getting very tired of loaning us money. They lose 15% a year on our bonds. America won't be calling the shots much longer. Our creditors have banded together and are going to demand that we get our house in order.
What America has historicly done in a case like this is to send in the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International settlements.

They raked Argentina, Indonesia, etc over the coals.
They impose economic conditions until repayment is moving along well.
The IMF is already here checking our books. The US has refused foreign investment participation in our financials because it would expose our books to foreign inspection. We want Investment, yes. Participation, no
Now, I hear that they want to make the FED a super bank to control everything. This would be BAD,,, simple as that.
The US is VERY close to default. Soon, they are going to close the banks [speculation, of course]
The mariage of B of A and Wachovia is a marriage of the dead. B of A has $78? trillion in derrivatives that aren't on the books because they're tier 3 assets.
The IMF and BIS are going to ask our creditors what they want. They, of course, want their money. They have to be careful not to make things worse. Saudi [and the rest] have not imposed any birth control. They spend $70 of each barrel of oil for social programs.
My guess is that they're going to insist that we severly cut our military to preserve much of the general economy.
The rest of the world is tired of our shit. They tired of the tail wagging the dog. Russia has put missles around israel to stop them from causing so many problems.
The other monkey wrench in the works is that the PTB are in the process of engineering a HUGE famine. World leaders are in agreement that the developing world needs population reduction. They just don't want total destruction to go with it.
Normally, all settlements through the BIS are done in gold. That can't be done in this case because the world doesn't have that much gold. That won't stop GOV from confiscating all the gold again

Goldman and Morgan are walking dead. GOV is trying to control the financial markets by decree. There is no way to stop millions of investors from yanking their money from the financials. There has already been a run on the various funds by investors. How long before there is a bank run by the public?
My recomendation is to put your money into a Japanese bank like Sumitomo. After the banks are allowed to reopen Sumitomo will still be there. There are plenty of smaller banks that will survive. It's just hard to know who is exposed to what.
To ride it out, I suggest letting your bills fall in arrears for a month and keeping cash in the house.
The Canadians are our biggest oil supplier. They may continue to send us black goo, especially during the winter. The Saudis will sell for cash on the open market. The IMF will take it's time allowing payment. There will be interruptions.
It's obvious that FDID, the FED and treasury are panicked. Why, you ask?
Well, they don't have a backup plan. No plan means default.
If the people running the show don't have a plan, YOU sure as hell better have a plan. It better include radical self-reliance.

It's impossible to imagine everything going smoothly without any hiccups.
A hiccup will bring riot. I'd suggest that Burners prepare for an exodus if the cities get torched. Like any exodus, a few gas cans [full] comes in real handy.
Months ago, I probably sounded pessimistic. I actually just try to be realistic. IF there is insurrection, GOV will clamp down the cities. You won't have much time to leave before there is curfew and possibly exit closure.
It would be wise to keep your camping gear in one area with full propane tanks. If money is a problem, buy potatoes and pasta for emergency.
You saw the GOV response to Katrina. Imagine the problem greatly multiplied.
I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Don't shoot the messenger.
Dan

[can't sit still]

Here's some interesting speculation. It has lots of specifics but I haven't had time to try to corroborate the info.


1. At the beginning of July, the Bank of International Settlements in Switzerland, which is owned by the thirteen [Illuminati] Banking Families under Rothschild, stated that it wanted to audit the US Federal Reserve. Bush reluctantly had to agree to this, but with the proviso that the audit would not be conducted until he has left office. However, when the truth inevitably leaks out on 30th September 2008, clearly the Bank of International Settlements will no longer be prepared to accept the US Dollar.

2. With the realization that the Federal Reserve has been pumping two billion US Dollars a day into the economy in a forlorn effort to try to keep the US afloat, the US is now construed as 'the poor kid on the block', the 'bankrupt of the world' and nobody is prepared to lend them anything. Foreign governments have said 'We will no longer take your bonds'.

3. This situation has resulted in worldwide repercussions: for example China, which is the biggest US creditor, has told US importers that they may not pay more then 20% of the total cost of their goods in US Dollars.

4. Also since the beginning of July, Germany has announced that it will no longer accept Euros from eight of their fellow EU members, the two countries with which they are most concerned being Italy and Spain.

5. The Real Estate market is expected to go down by an additional 50% from its value on 16th August. Because of the collapse of the Real Estate market, which is expected to lead to at least a further two million foreclosures within the next 12 months, US Banks are no longer prepared to trust each other, so inter-bank lending has virtually ceased.

6. This has had a knock-on effect on would-be house purchasers. Like the old days, anyone who now wants to get a mortgage has to put 20% down and to satisfy the lender that their job is secure.

7. You may have seen Bush go on television to tell everyone not to worry as the US Government-sponsored Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will guarantee the safety of their bank deposits. However, the truth is that the FDIC can barely raise 30 cents on the dollar to cover its potential liabilities; and Bank of America and Wells Fargo are in a similar situation.

8. Banks have already started telling their depositors that they cannot withdraw their own cash.

9. It is universally accepted internationally that the US Dollar is going to collapse by the end of September 2008. some foreign banks have already started to refuse to take U.S. deposits and, since the Patriot Act, if you do manage to send money to a foreign bank, they are required to report the fact to the USG, who will make you prove how you obtained it and if you cannot do so, they will automatically label you a 'terrorist' or a 'drug dealer' and confiscate it.

10. The Bank of South America is trying to organize its own currency for use within the South American continent when the US Dollar finally crashes, based on an initial provision of eight billion dollars.

11. As at July 1st, the Japanese stock market was down 12%, the Australian stock market was down 18%, the German stock market was down 22%, the Indian stock market was down 36%; and China's Shanghai Exchange was down 50%.

12. Within the next year, the DOW is expected to fall to between 7500 and 8000.

13. Everyone is now desperately trying to get liquid; and Oil, Gold and Drugs have become the only universally accepted world currencies.

14. The only sensible advice is either to change dollars into other currencies, or buy gold and silver (while you still can, because the US is likely to make it illegal to own gold); and stock up on canned food and ammunition, the price of which is going to go through the roof. Already the major canners have reduced the size of cans by 20% to preserve stock whilst also maximizing their profits.

15. Already 80% of the cost of an apple in a supermarket is due to energy costs; and this proportion is likely to rise. We have already started to see the situation where growers, producers and importers have stopped supplying many basic foodstuffs because the price of oil has meant that the cost of getting it to market is more than they can hope to sell it for. The food shortages that have resulted are likely to become even more acute because the USG is talking of introducing price controls. Who will be prepared to continue to supply the market when they are sustaining increasing losses?

16. The falling value of the dollar has created artificial shortages because other countries can now buy US goods cheaper than they can produce them themselves.

17. Inflation is expected to rise by 35 - 40% by the end of this year in real terms. Gasoline 5 Dollars a Gallon everywhere.

18. Following the collapse of the US Dollar, the Euro is also expected to collapse. In fact, Russia is already negotiating with Germany about a new currency.

19. The Iranian Oil Bourse was set up to trade oil internationally in Euros (see: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/12125 <http> ) but, just when the bourse was ready to go live, the submarine cables were conveniently cut.

20. You can forget about the NAU's Amero. The Amero is off the table - the Canadian Prime Minister said 'We're not going to support a bankrupt country'; and Mexico is so corrupt that nobody knows where they're coming from.

21. In the future, South America will be one of the safest areas on the planet. They have ample commodities and very little debt. Not everywhere is ideal (in some countries you would need to live in a defended compound). Ecuador is close to becoming self sufficient in food terms.

22. Kissinger and the population reduction crew are trying to get WW3 started before September 30th (end of the US Fiscal Year), then Bush can suspend everything. Israel and the US are working out the details to attack Iran to start WW3. The main reason for the use of Depleted Uranium munitions in Iraq is 'to cull the herd'.

23. Of the US population of 300 million, half are over 50 and most of the kids can't read or write. Sport and entertainment are what has been used to keep everyone going. When (rather than if) Bush calls a National Emergency, if you are over the age of 44 only if you have a use which 'they' want will 'they' be prepared to keep you alive. Moreover, what law will we have which says that we even own our own homes?

24. Everybody must downsize into small self-contained and (as far as possible) self-sufficient communities, People will have to forget their 'wants' and to concentrate solely on what they actually need to survive.

25. In short, we are marching towards our self-imprisonment. I'm ready to get out of harm's way. I know high ups who will tell me when it's time to leave.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... rwLRqYW-Aw

I try not to post outright bullshit. I posted this because mondays have been really BAD on Wall street. Bush is going to pay for everything and rule by edict. The problem is that he can't control investors. They stopped short-selling for 496 financials. That's only a drop in the bucket.
The stock market will go up and give the smart people time to get out on a rally. Tomorrow morning will be a postponement or it will be financial armageddon.
Dan

[Elderberry]

Isn't that the same "George Green" wacko that has those UFO videos too? Can't believe you put any credibility into his rants.

JK

[can't sit still]

jkisha, this post and your post on immigration show a very limited imagination. If you go to Stealthskater and read the records of UFO problems worldwide and the interviews with political and military leaders in dozens of countries,,, you might learn a few things.
http://www.stealthskater.com/UFO.htm

The info in my previous post has some exaggerations and one notable discrepancy but, much of the info is correct. I'm hoping that others will post relavent info in this thread, not drivel.
The western stock markets did not have an impressive opening this morning. Aparently, investors are not impresed by GOVs latest show of panic. If markets don't react favorably on day one, what are they going to do later?

[Ugly Dougly]

It's interesting to hear the economists reference the Depression and add a caveat: "but we won't possibly go to that extreme, since some regulation has been added to keep that from happening."
Now how do we know that regulation hasn't been removed since then by some incumbent president in order to get re-elected?
I'm telling you, get some vegetable seeds. Maybe start raising rabbits. You can hide them more easily than chickens in the city.

[Ugly Dougly]

http://www.stealthskater.com/UFO.htm

Sorry, that site fails the color test: the number of colors used on any particular website is inversely proportional to the legitimacy of its academic content.

[can't sit still]

Sorry about the color test. If you read the doc from military and political leaders all over the world,,,, I believe that it is black and white. I'm having computer problems. My new mother board with Ubuntu did a Kamakazee on the memory.
In 1935, the senate banking committee passed the Glass-Steagoll act because of the enormous damage done by the "pools" Fast-forward and we had Greenspan telling congress that we had to repeal Glass-Steagol to make our banks competitive. He should have said suicidal. The Graham-Leechy act undid Glass-Steagol and the rest is history.

In the 29 crash, our debt was 260% of our GDP. It now stands at about 380%. When you count all our liabilities each person owes about $441,000. There is no way in creation that social-security or Medicare will survive. Our combined private and public debt is $37 trillion. Our unfunded liabilities is variously counted from $56 trillion to $92 trillion. One estimate is from our former comptroller-general. The other is from the St. Louis FED.

GOV is trying to re inflate the bubble. The banks are trying to protect $1 quadrillion in CDOs and other derivatives. We still have 2 years of heavy loan resets. Commercial and credit-card stuff is blowing.
The best-case scenario is that we have horrendous inflation of our worthless dollar.
The worst-case scenario is that the fiat currency system falls through the floor. The farmers are already having trouble obtaining credit to plant crops. That could be the worse than worse-case scenario.
Dan

[EvilDustBooger]

As usual, the working people are going to have to bear this.

I understand that congress, as part of the bail-out legislation, will attempt to remove the "K" from 401K programs after Social Security programs go belly up.
The "K" will then be added to a tax rebate program for the indigent.
From then on, our currency will be called monKey.
It sounds like sound policy.
We should then have an advantage over the Euro and other currencies in the various MonKey Markets.

I can`t wait to see what they dream up for us next.

[ygmir]

forgive my naivete....

What's to stop gov. from just saying "poof, we don't owe anyone anything", and asking the debtors "what ya gonna do about it?".......

Seems as a nation, we could be pretty isolated and still survive, maybe not our present level of luxury, but, still eat and be warm......

Just wonderin'.....

[can't sit still]

YGMIR, they don't say poof. They declare "force majeure" It's the same thing,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, only more polite. There are already some scenarios laid out for doing just that. Timing would be important. If the US defaulted on it's debt,,, which looks likely, our creditors would petition the bank of international settlements to do our books and make awards. Since David Walker, our former comptroller-general was never able to certify that our books were honest or accurate, the IMF and BIS would be lost for decades.
Our combined national debt is $37 trillion. Our creditors would want to send oil COD in the meantime. We would probably have to pay in gold. Our gold is gone but GOV has a solution. Same as last time; confiscation. The patriot act has a definition of which coins are bullion [to be confiscated] and which coins have numismatic value. BIS settlements are always done in gold.

The prospectus has us defaulting after the European markets close. Stay tuned for further details.

[ygmir]

wow,
that'd stir the pot........

Maybe it's needed, the whole planet taken to it's fiscal knees, and, start over..........
Might be better in the long run.......

I'd just hope it happens while I'm still able to chop wood and work hard.........and shoot straight.........

[Ugly Dougly]

wow,
that'd stir the pot........

Maybe it's needed, the whole planet taken to it's fiscal knees, and, start over..........
Might be better in the long run.......

I'd just hope it happens while I'm still able to chop wood and work hard.........and shoot straight.........

How romantic. Ever see anyone starve to death?

[ygmir]

nope.

[can't sit still]

Currently, the west is borrowing from the east as fast as possible. Evidently, the west plans to borrow every cent that they can until the east cries uncle. China has now instructed it's banks to stop lending to the west. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 3720080925
All the rating agencies are in the west. They refuse to downgrade the creditworthiness of the US GOV. Now that China has said stop, the rest of our investors are going to get very nervous. GOV now wants $ 612 billion for the military budget.
Any idiot can see that a $700 billion bailout won't save a quadrillion of worthless derivatives.
China loses 15% a year on their US bonds. It looks like they may turn off the spigot. We have other problems besides the derivatives. If our creditors walk away, GOV will go catatonic. You will be on your own.

[Ugly Dougly]

They will declare an emergency and suspend the constitution before that happens, don't worry.

[Intubater69]

I think a lot of the overpriced labor relates directly to unions.........they started out as a necessity, and, did the good work, but, IMHO, now, they are bloated and driving companies out of business..........they require not just a very good wage (in comparison to non union doing the same job), but, a huge amount of money, for, what I call, "Protection"...........

And, high labor equates to high prices, and so on........

Precisely