Stock Market Mania

[Apollonaris Zeus]

The stock markets are coming into buy territory. Hopefully, you people bought Shorts when I told you too. Some of you, like me, have made a shitload of money.

Nothing that our government with all its bailout can't change the major correction that the DOW never had but the Nas did. Stocks have been over inflated since the 90's

under 8,000 dow safe for long term investment

under 7,000 moderately safe for short term playing. Play the micro ups and downs. Buy going up and short going down. Back and forth.

under 6,000 Buy, Buy, Buy!
take your money out of metals, real estate (if you have any left), bonds whatever!

Here are the charts. See the big bubble after halfway after 1999. What you are seeing is real estate money leaving that market and going into the dow. The real estate market bubbled with the Turn-This-House mentalility.



Now the Dow has tanked. The real estate money is taking its profits and leaving.


Hopefully Dr. Pyro has fully liquidated his stocks and is on the short train, because if he or anyone that has stock that were bought in this century aren't worth more then the price before the bubble!

AIIZ

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Same for Nasdaq but at 1,500 or lower!

Short now, buy later!


AIIZ

[gyre]

As bush said, "I'm buying, and I urge those who still have any money left to buy too."

[Elderberry]

As bush said, "I'm buying, and I urge those who still have any money left to buy too."

Well that's good enough for me--NOT. But Warren Buffett is buying; and that's news you can take to the bank.

I never understood all that puts and calls and short and long and derivitive crap. And if I don't understand it I stay away from it. Frankly I think it is this complexity and gambling aspect of the market that has developed over the years that has been a big contributor to the current crisis.

JK

[Apollonaris Zeus]

As bush said, "I'm buying, and I urge those who still have any money left to buy too."

Well that's good enough for me--NOT. But Warren Buffett is buying; and that's news you can take to the bank.

I never understood all that puts and calls and short and long and derivitive crap. And if I don't understand it I stay away from it. Frankly I think it is this complexity and gambling aspect of the market that has developed over the years that has been a big contributor to the current crisis.

JK

Warren has money to lose and if he doesn't invest, he loses money and he will.

to play the market, you first have to lose some money to learn how to do it. Or you can let some broker do it for you and you lose money anyway. I don't trust broker houses. They get together in a meeting to decide which stocks they want to move higher so their funds can move higher. Then once they get the stock to a certain point, they unload them first after placing short sells on them, then if you're a good customer, they tell you to unload, but they don't tell you to short. Too many shorts and other brokerage houses and to start buying to push it back up. Then they move back in with buys and unload their shorts.

As far as, if this contributes to the decline of the market, I disagree and so do many brokerages. It is actually helpful in keeping the market active because no one makes any money in a stagnant market. It helps the market because if you could only make money when it goes up and that limits investment. It also helps to correct stocks that are oversold- and we haven't seen any of that in our markets have we?

The market has never been a save place for the average citizen. The gambling aspect of stocks have always been there and will always be there. If an investment house or even an individual broker ever says Shorts are bad and they don't do it. They are lying! It is just an investment tool.

Our markets have been oversold for over a decade and the factors I spoke are the real contributors to the bubble and bubble always burst!
this is a good thing

Why didn't FDR have social security funds invest in the market as bush and the republicans do? I can only say I'm glad that the Democrats ended that from happening!

AIIZ

[Elderberry]

There have only been two stocks I have ever lost money on--WebVan and WaMu--both I bought solely because I did business with them and was impressed. I figured that if they gave such good customer service they had to be successful. They both went belly up. But on the whole, I'm happy with my other more conservative choices--even now. I'll leave the puts and calls to you younger guys.

JK

[Dr. Pyro]

Well AIIZ, I do hold some stocks (sadly a bunch of Wachovia) but shit, I'm so stinking rich that if I lose 50-large like I did last week, it doesn't even effect my bottom line. So there.

[can't sit still]

Sure Buffet put some money in. BUT, he demanded senior debt with a couple of concessions. They needed his money so bad, they made his paper senior to everyone else's. The PPT is buying stocks left and right,,, and trying to punish shorts. I wouldn't be surprised if the $10 B was a GOV check with Buffet's name on it. More bang for the buck.
You can buy the DOW at 6,000 but without capital, the P / E will be sucky. P / E has been sucky for 6 years adjusted for inflation.
Reportedly, we need several trillion to keep rolling. We have lots of liquidity but, very little capital. We'll be on the skids without capital.
If you can chew through this doc, it shows debt issuance. Pretty dead.
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/co ... t_id=10125
Yes, I read the whole thing. If you can't read the whole thing, it at least has a pretty graph.

[Elderberry]

how did you ever sit still long enough to read that whole thing?

JK

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Well AIIZ, I do hold some stocks (sadly a bunch of Wachovia) but shit, I'm so stinking rich that if I lose 50-large like I did last week, it doesn't even effect my bottom line. So there.

Dr. P if your investments were started over 25 years ago as you say and you have liquidated the majority except the Wachovias. I would say you're sitting pretty good.

May I ask where you placed those assets i.e. gold etc?

Can't Sit Still that was a good post on the credit bubble!!!

Here's the an important excerpt from it- posted at the very end:

Here at home, our maladjusted economic system will only be sustained by somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.0 TN of new Credit. It’s simply not going to happen. The $700bn from Washington would seem like an enormous amount of support. In reality, it’s nowhere even close to the amount necessary for systemic stabilization. To the $2.0 TN or so of new Credit required this year (and next) add perhaps as much as several Trillion more necessary to accommodate speculative de-leveraging (liquidations forced by huge losses). Importantly, the Bust in Wall Street Finance has ensured that insufficient liquidity will be forthcoming to maintain inflated asset prices and sustain the Bubble economy – creating catastrophe for the leveraged speculating community.

The “Freidmanitesâ€

[can't sit still]

Zeus, reportedly there was $160 billion riding on $4 billion worth of oil. It spun out of control. MSM was reporting last night that GOV was going to take concerted action. Japan was going to lower their interest rate. Well, it's already at 1/4 of a percent. Been there for years and didn't change a thing.
I try to make my posts balanced. I read hundreds of papers a week. If you want to read something on the pessimistic side, you can always read Kunstler.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kunst ... 00708.html
He can definitely make you lose sleep. Much of his theorizing is based on conventional views of peak oil. When Hubbert wrote peak oil, there was much that wasn't known about both exploration, recovery and location of oil. The Russian developments of recovering very deep oil has shown that there is a lot of oil that is located where conventional petroleum theory says it should not exist.
Commodities are crashing and this will reduce the investment in alternative energy. Too bad.

[thisisthatwhichis]

I'm thinking, now's the time to start buying....

We haven't seen these kind of deals for years!!!!.... but, I'd guess you would havta have liquidity...... which I don't..... Damn ex's...

[ygmir]

I bet it drops more, even commodities, after the election, maybe not until Jan after the Xmas boost......

[Dr. Pyro]

Zeus, fair question. As a hedge, I bought the Rydex Inverse 2X S&P 500 ETF (symbol: RSW). And I don't mind having a bunch of cash. I also wrote (at the time) in-the-money call options against 1000 shares of Cisco and 1000 shares of MBIA. Used that money as leverage to buy the RSW. And the rest, about $150,000, is in cash at the moment along with almost a million in my 401(k)/Defined Benefit Plan, which I really haven't bothered to touch for the past, well, decade I guess. I own no financial funds, some international and conservatively-managed domestic growth, and like I said, an inverse hedge and cash.

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Well Dr. P you are in a safe place! Cash!

The Fed cut rates and the market at this time: 12:26pm in back in the green territory, but the market is really volatile today as it doesn't know what to do. The plunge earlier proves it and the houses are moving cash into the market to cover short losses.

On the delayed housing starts report, new home construction was up for this summer. That's good new for construction and their suppliers, but its bad news for the market because it their cash that the stock market really needs. If the real estate starts pulling huge amounts of cash, nothing any government can do can keep their market from dropping.

So i'm still holding shorts and buying and selling them each day. I don't do the early market before the opening bell so I want to be in cash overnight.

The morning trend (except for today because of the fed rate change) has been a big drop at the opening so I been placing shorts then and sell when it start to turns up then witch to a buy selling them off at their peak and back to cash overnight. Until the trend changes, I'll stick to this trend but intensely following the overnight foreign markets for a clue as to when to switch my methods.

But my gut feeling for todays market is that where going below 9,000 either today or tomorrow. Well see?

AIIZ

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Well we dropped 200 pnts

Tomorrow below 8,000

I do have to say, and this is the one thing about using retirements in the stock market. Is that the funds have to buy into market where ever the market is at during that time. If your retirement fund buys at the peak you will only lose that money. It sucks. There is nothing that Joe 6 pack can do about it. You're a tool of the market.

So here's my advice for Joe, better roll that money into the money market fund since retirements fund don't allow you to short the market its the only safe place. Like Dr. Pyro its best to liquidate it into cash and sit on it for as long as your fund allows you to before you have to pay taxes on it.

Good luck and make a sacrifice to your patron gods because you're gonna need it.

AIIZ

AIIZ

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Oops, I forgot another reason the DOW bubbled. 1999 was also the beginning of the Nasdaq bubble burst. When Nas Stocks holders started putting their money into the unaffected dow. That along with the real estate money created the dow bubble.

yesterday I heard a early morning interview with a floor broker. He was saying the same tone that we heard in the Nas burst when it was about 30% less then it all time high> There are some great bargains to be had: discounted stocks are ripe to buy!

Then the nas tanked almost to where it started but not all the way.

this correction, which I predicted then, will take the nas to that predicted 900 mark.

AIIZ

[can't sit still]

Hey, a sure bet is to buy stocks in security cameras. The Brits love Gatso bashing. For all you Brits who can't reach the high ones, buy one of these;
http://www.catsdomain.com/

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Bingo

below 8,000

Lets see if we stay there, but there are no new positive news other IBM so there is not reason why it won't stay there.

AIIZ

[can't sit still]

Well, the FED has $221 billion left and the FDIC has about $45 billion. AIG blew through their ?85$ billion in no time and now needs 37? billion more. The $700 B bailout is going up in smoke pretty fast. B of A and CITI are going to need money pretty soon. Citi has $1 trillion in CDOs that are worthless.
Met Life will soon be standing in line behind California, 17 other states, Detroit, AT&T, GE and Iceland.
The US is also making noise about supporting foreign banks. Foreign banks have started guaranteeing all their deposits. Problem is, like America, they don't have the bucks to pay off.

Good thing that the American taxpayer has such deep pockets. The British banks are lower rated than the banks of Botswana;" Business leaders in Britain rated UK banks a mere 44th in the world for solvency, well behind countries in Africa and Latin America including Senegal, Botswana, El Salvador - and even behind Iceland, whose three main banks have all been taken into national ownership after collapsing into financial turmoil this week."
Don't laugh, the US came in behind Panama and Chille.
There is an interesting analysis of banks around the world.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 912649.ece
If you want a clear picture of the banking problem, just imagine 10 lbs. of C4 in a full outhouse.
Investors worldwide are fleeing the stock markets and going to cash and US treasuries. The flight to treasuries will allow GOV the capital to bail out more and more of Paulson's friends. How nice.
There is a remote possibility that Fulford is not completely full of shit. His contention is that tons of Chinese assassins are going to wipe out the Illuminati if they go ahead with their plan to eliminate the east. According to Fulford, a Chinese secret society with 6 million members, including 1.8 million Asian gangsters and 100000 professional assassins,
http://www.livevideo.com/media/tag/benj ... lford.aspx
Now, I didn't say that it's likely but, it is an entertaining idea.
There are a lot of British bankers. The Chinese haven't forgotten that the Emperor begged the English monarchy to stop sending opium to China.
It's all very interesting, Dan

[gyre]

The chinese will conquer the us by dropping one third of their population in the midwest and simply spreading out armed with rakes and hoes.

[ygmir]

The chinese will conquer the us by dropping one third of their population in the midwest and simply spreading out armed with rakes and hoes.

a new movie: Red Dawn, the yellow hoard.......

[Apollonaris Zeus]

As I stated above, The market pattern is the same as it was during the Nas Correction. Big drop at the opening, a recovery with houses shoving money to counter short buys, pushing the market up then a dumping of stocks.

Don't think that the shorts aren't being placed by the houses. They are playing the same trend as I.

Expect a big sell off at the end of the day as we head into the weekend. As Investors protect their money over negative over the weekend. So a short play at the end of the day, might make you some money as well.

Again, if you have retirement stocks, I have to highly recommend that you should sell them off and take advantage of the rollover allowance then roll them back into stocks at the end of the time allowance before you are taxed for withdrawing them prematurely.

the market is moving down fast and that's a good thing. Once we hit below the 7,000 we will be in a safe area for completing your rollover and be in a safe long term investment area even if it does go below 6,000.

Don't let the news channels and politicians scare you. We are in a corrective market people!!!!! It's not the Great Depression.

It's only a corrective market!!!

The Nas had it dot com and cooked asset books and it need to be corrected.

The Dow has the Sub-prime Mortgage, easy credit and oversold Real Estate market and its now it time to correct it.

AIIZ

[Marscrumbs]

Read in the LATimes that the Dow is back where it was in 2003. Let's see in 2003 life wasn't that bad, like nobody starving in the streets and such. I hope it retreats back to 2000 so we can have a do over of the Bush years.

[Elderberry]

Read in the LATimes that the Dow is back where it was in 2003. Let's see in 2003 life wasn't that bad, like nobody starving in the streets and such. I hope it retreats back to 2000 so we can have a do over of the Bush years.

that's funny.

JK

[Apollonaris Zeus]

Read in the LATimes that the Dow is back where it was in 2003. Let's see in 2003 life wasn't that bad, like nobody starving in the streets and such. I hope it retreats back to 2000 so we can have a do over of the Bush years.

1999-2000 is a safe area, it could go lower, but there will be a rebound unless GWB and his cash cronies do otherwise to fuck up the nature of rebound markets. they seem to have fuck up everywhere else.

McCain want to put a freeze on the housing market. Not allowing people to sell their house less then what they have bought it for. Can you believe it. He's in big time with developers and wants to save his wealth which isn't his wife's wealth- remember they have a pre-nuptial agreement!

I'm nicknaming him: Negative Nixon!

AIIZ

[Apollonaris Zeus]

We just broke the 7,000 mark!

which means we're going lower!

[Toolmaker]

[youtube][/youtube]

[Apollonaris Zeus]

I think elvis Great Depression prediction is a stretch Toolmaker. If we break though 6,000 it could go lower.

Yesterday while I was watching NBCMSN, I heard laughter coming from the stock trading floor around the last half hour of trading, but none of the hosts knew what was happening. It was the announcement that the Feds were going to buy financial stocks. That news saved the market from dropping below 8,000.

But the market had already reacted to this a week ago and was adjusted at the time. But Wall Street needed some renew encouragement.

We'll see how strong a bottom forms if it keeps bouncing off 8,000 mark next week but I'm seeing or hearing that it will.

Oh, sorry for the mispost on going below 7,000 I meant to 8,000. Me Bad!

AIIZ

[Elderberry]

Oh, sorry for the mispost on going below 7,000 I meant to 8,000. Me Bad!

AIIZ

Thought so, but it came close though!

JK