Well, the argument du jour is whether we're experiencing deflation or disinflation. Hell if I know. Whatever it is, it has a big negative feedback effect. Every dollar that you don't spend is a dollar that someone else doesn't receive. The economy is just staggering. But, every dollar that you keep in the bank or your pocket is one less dollar that isn't going to be taxed or accrue interest charged of some kind.
So while joe average is poor, GOV and banking receive absolutely nothing [more or less] Tax revenue is projected to drop spectacularly;
2007: 2.568 Trillion
2008: 2.183 Trillion
2009: 1.618 Trillion
2010: 1.387 Trillion
2011: 1.027 Trillion
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7213.html
GOV is looking at a black hole as far as debt is concerned;
Current Government's liabilities :
National Debt ($10.5 trillion)
Money borrowed and spent from Social Security ($12 trillion)
Toxic assets in the Fed's balance sheets ($2.2 trillion)
Underfunded federal pensions ($1 trillion)
Total = $26.5 Trillion in debt
Assets guaranteed by the Government's "full faith and credit " :
Bank deposits (6.5 trillion)
Freddie/Fannie debt (5 trillion)
Money market funds (3 trillion, 1 year)
Interbank lending (? trillion)
senior debt of all FDIC-insured institutions (1.5 trillion, 3 years)
pensions backstopped by PBGC (3+ trillion)
Total: = $19 trillion guaranteed (so far...)
So, GOV owes $ 12 trillion to social security. We also need to throw in $67 to $98 trillion for future unfunded liabilities. GOV is completely insolvent. Unfortunately, GOV is you and me.
We're going into serious deflation and GOV just can't stand it. GOV is "printing" "money" just as fast as it can [almost] This is the definition of inflation. The big problem for GOV is that nobody is taking on any debt. The banks take it to buy up smaller banks and to protect them from upcoming losses.
The actual people who produce the wealth are not taking on any more debt.
Some pretty reliable sources expect 10 million jobs to be lost next year;
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post59666
People are wise to this and aren't spending any money. The banks can't find anyone who is credit-worthy who wants to borrow. No fees,,, no debt creation,,, no nothing. Just huge defaults without end. The banks expect it to turnaround. No way, Jose. Not in Japan,,, not here.
People won't pay for a house that is underwater. The price of a house has to reflect the prevailing wages in the same area. As global wages gradually make their appearance here, global house prices will appear too. Same goes for global unemployment rates.
Reportedly, there are already 10 million unemployed,,, dunno. The Swiss think tank expects the enormous deficit to paralyze GOV. That will have to bring on more GOV layoffs. Coupled with that, it's expected that another lost 10 M jobs will throw the country into depression. This isn't a new idea, but the expected year-end job losses will bring it closer to reality;
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10812
I mentioned a couple weeks ago that the new pres would receive demands from the rest of the world as soon as he took office. Well, The World didn't wait that long. Obama has been presented with a 6 page list. We can't repay our debt with our current arrangement.
Fulford has written an interesting paper on what he expects the demands of The World will be;
http://www.rense.com/general84/save.htm
GOV is trying to get Americans to be good little profligate spenders again. Stir up the economy and it generates lots of taxes, fees and interest. The reflation just isn't going to happen.
The greatest consumer in the world is the US military. They only buy super-expensive stuff and then they destroy it. Considering the deficits, it can't possibly go on.
I'm not talking about the legitimacy of the mission of the US military. I don't need to. The US military is also the greatest consumer of petroleum in the world. We can't repay The World as long as we have the super-consumer in khaki. As Fulford has mentioned, I believe that The World will insist in a <95> % reduction of military spending.
We shall see.
The Long Cold Winter
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can't sit still
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can't sit still
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For those of you who are curious about the intricacies of money and markets, here is a good article; http://www.contrahour.com/ It also has what I believe is a link to a great article . There's only 24 hrs in a day.
This is a good article on deflation; http://seekingalpha.com/article/106220- ... -deflation
It argues that there isn't any deflation yet in anything that is "real money"
Currently, the banks are taking all their "money" produced by financial shenanigans and they're trying to buy up the country at fire sale prices. The big money people drove good companies to insolvency. Now, they're buying them up CHEAP. You can buy many companies just for the cash that they have on hand.
That's exactly why hedge funds were made illegal in 1935 by the Glas-Steagall act. They were re-incarnated by the Graham-Leachey act. Now, the writer of that bill is being moved into a big power position.
There are some good articles for the necessity of returning to a gold standard. This shouldn't be confused with a gold backing. There isn't that much gold in the world.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post61139
This is all translated into the real economy eventually. I realize that much of what I post is depressing. I won't post the new numbers for layoffs.
Currently, GOV spends 36% of the GDP. About 50% of all voters rely partly or wholly on a check from GOV. GOV has stolen everything except for IRAs, 401Ks and bank deposits. They've stolen much of these things also by inflation. They've "absorbed" 80% of savings worldwide. The West has vacuumed up the wealth around the planet.
GOV is running out of wealth to steal. We're running out of blood to give to the bankers/GOV
Dan
This is a good article on deflation; http://seekingalpha.com/article/106220- ... -deflation
It argues that there isn't any deflation yet in anything that is "real money"
Currently, the banks are taking all their "money" produced by financial shenanigans and they're trying to buy up the country at fire sale prices. The big money people drove good companies to insolvency. Now, they're buying them up CHEAP. You can buy many companies just for the cash that they have on hand.
That's exactly why hedge funds were made illegal in 1935 by the Glas-Steagall act. They were re-incarnated by the Graham-Leachey act. Now, the writer of that bill is being moved into a big power position.
There are some good articles for the necessity of returning to a gold standard. This shouldn't be confused with a gold backing. There isn't that much gold in the world.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post61139
This is all translated into the real economy eventually. I realize that much of what I post is depressing. I won't post the new numbers for layoffs.
Currently, GOV spends 36% of the GDP. About 50% of all voters rely partly or wholly on a check from GOV. GOV has stolen everything except for IRAs, 401Ks and bank deposits. They've stolen much of these things also by inflation. They've "absorbed" 80% of savings worldwide. The West has vacuumed up the wealth around the planet.
GOV is running out of wealth to steal. We're running out of blood to give to the bankers/GOV
Dan
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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MoisturePup
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Ugly Dougly
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Mister Pup,, it's getting a bit late to buy gold. There is also talk about confiscation,,,again. The British GOV in their infinite wisdom sold a bunch of their gold at the bottom of the market... $250. Now, they want it back.
Your best bet is to buy bullion coins. There is less premium. Of course, if you buy numismatic coins, they aren't subject to confiscation. It's laid out on page 16 of the patriot act. All gold sales are recorded. Try to buy from a shop that is bad at record keeping. There is so much fake stuff going around that it's risky to buy from an unknown.
Right now, commodities are falling,,, precious metals too. PM aren't falling as fast as the dollar but, that mix is hard to predict. Silver, on th other hand is not subject to confiscation. FYI, the silver/gold ratio has historically has been way different than what it is now. Silver could really take off. Supposedly, there is more above-ground gold than silver. A lot of silver is consumed. Rhodium hit $9600 an ounce.
At the moment, PMs are so oversold that it's very risky to buy and not take delivery. reportedly, there is 6 times as much paper silver as physical silver. So many people are taking physical delivery that the supply is faltering. PM sales have been cut off at many mints. Now, there is a huge premium because of the shortage.
Saudi, Iran, Russia, China and a few others have been buying a lot lately. It looks like The World is getting ready to spring a big new monetary surprise on us. They can't announce it ahead of time because it would crash the FOREX. The FOREX trades 3 trillion a day.
If you've got a lot of money that you want to convert, you can go straight to the miners in Alaska. There are lots of private miners who will sell for 70% or so of the COMEX quote. They won't make records and you won't either. Chicken, AK is a good place. Just look for a company that is in the gravel business. Everybodyin Ak is in the gravel business. Funny, they wash all the gravel in a Hector Box beforehand just to clean it. When you get it from the miners, it's in flake or nugget form. It's illegal to melt it down. As long as it's in it's original form, GOV can track where it came from.
PM is in such short supply now that you have to pay a big premium. The exception is 1000 oz silver bars.They sell for the COMEX price which is way lower than what you have to pay for small bars. Someone noticed this and is melting down 1000 oz bars and selling them in the 100 oz form. They make quite a profit on the difference.
The ETFs aren't reliable. They've been working against the market. Also, if it comes to confiscation, GOV will go right to the ETFs. The language in the silver ETF...SLV is completely different from the language in the gold ETF. It looks like SLV was initiated just to take investors to the cleaners. Physical delivery is a must.
It's late in the game to buy PM. E-Bay has so-so prices.
Dan
Your best bet is to buy bullion coins. There is less premium. Of course, if you buy numismatic coins, they aren't subject to confiscation. It's laid out on page 16 of the patriot act. All gold sales are recorded. Try to buy from a shop that is bad at record keeping. There is so much fake stuff going around that it's risky to buy from an unknown.
Right now, commodities are falling,,, precious metals too. PM aren't falling as fast as the dollar but, that mix is hard to predict. Silver, on th other hand is not subject to confiscation. FYI, the silver/gold ratio has historically has been way different than what it is now. Silver could really take off. Supposedly, there is more above-ground gold than silver. A lot of silver is consumed. Rhodium hit $9600 an ounce.
At the moment, PMs are so oversold that it's very risky to buy and not take delivery. reportedly, there is 6 times as much paper silver as physical silver. So many people are taking physical delivery that the supply is faltering. PM sales have been cut off at many mints. Now, there is a huge premium because of the shortage.
Saudi, Iran, Russia, China and a few others have been buying a lot lately. It looks like The World is getting ready to spring a big new monetary surprise on us. They can't announce it ahead of time because it would crash the FOREX. The FOREX trades 3 trillion a day.
If you've got a lot of money that you want to convert, you can go straight to the miners in Alaska. There are lots of private miners who will sell for 70% or so of the COMEX quote. They won't make records and you won't either. Chicken, AK is a good place. Just look for a company that is in the gravel business. Everybodyin Ak is in the gravel business. Funny, they wash all the gravel in a Hector Box beforehand just to clean it. When you get it from the miners, it's in flake or nugget form. It's illegal to melt it down. As long as it's in it's original form, GOV can track where it came from.
PM is in such short supply now that you have to pay a big premium. The exception is 1000 oz silver bars.They sell for the COMEX price which is way lower than what you have to pay for small bars. Someone noticed this and is melting down 1000 oz bars and selling them in the 100 oz form. They make quite a profit on the difference.
The ETFs aren't reliable. They've been working against the market. Also, if it comes to confiscation, GOV will go right to the ETFs. The language in the silver ETF...SLV is completely different from the language in the gold ETF. It looks like SLV was initiated just to take investors to the cleaners. Physical delivery is a must.
It's late in the game to buy PM. E-Bay has so-so prices.
Dan
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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can't sit still
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Well, Mr Market marches on. JP Morgan's price is down to what their IPO was years ago. Morgan Stanley and CITI are crashing their share-price. CITI borrowed several billion from SWFs not too long ago. Now, they're laying off 50,000.
It may slowly dawn on the banks that they are not going to make any money if WE don't make any money. It will take a FUCKING long time before GOV figures that one out. The G-20 meeting said that they were generally going to take action. As is usual with GOV people, they didn't really have a clue what action to take. Not at all surprising because GOV themselves are the problem.
Ron Paul quizzed Helicopter Ben about his plans. BB replied that he didn't have any plans to change anything in the financial structure. Paul pointed out to him that our current structure was collapsing rapidly because of deficits. BB told him,, more or less, EGBOK.
GOV has vacuumed up all the wealth that it could worldwide. As investors flee to cash, they will keep it in banks [not the big 3 though] The FDIC is severely undercapitalised. The banks will run for safety also. They will invest it in treasuries. That means that GOV will have access to your money to carry on just as before. I fear that GOV will continue to service the deficit by using treasuries. Social security has IOUs for $12 trillion from treasury. GOV won't have any compunction about spending every cent that comes through the door.
GOV claims that they will need to borrow $3 trillion next year. If investors and banks flee to the safety of treasuries, GOV will get "it's" 3 trillion. This might buy a postponement. We also have to service our debt,,, repay or roll over $3.7 trillion,,, pay the FED,,, run the country,,, fight the wars and eat dinner. We also need to do something about $1.4 quadrillion in derivatives.
The FED is lending a helping hand buy creating dollars at the annualized rate of 800%.
Our investors/bond buyers are losing 15% a year historically. Now, they will lose quite a bit more. The Baltic Dry Goods Index is showing that a depression is unavoidable. Every investor is looking for a safe haven. There isn't one.
Ronald Raygun gets the kudos for originating the deregulation. As an actor, he doesn't have to deal with the real world. Slowly, over the decades, the regulations enacted during the depression [No. 1] , were chipped away at.
The temptations connected with a fiat currency, coupled with unlimited greed, have once more brought the system crashing down. GOV and banking are completely enamored with Keynes and Friedman. They march behind the devil.
It may slowly dawn on the banks that they are not going to make any money if WE don't make any money. It will take a FUCKING long time before GOV figures that one out. The G-20 meeting said that they were generally going to take action. As is usual with GOV people, they didn't really have a clue what action to take. Not at all surprising because GOV themselves are the problem.
Ron Paul quizzed Helicopter Ben about his plans. BB replied that he didn't have any plans to change anything in the financial structure. Paul pointed out to him that our current structure was collapsing rapidly because of deficits. BB told him,, more or less, EGBOK.
GOV has vacuumed up all the wealth that it could worldwide. As investors flee to cash, they will keep it in banks [not the big 3 though] The FDIC is severely undercapitalised. The banks will run for safety also. They will invest it in treasuries. That means that GOV will have access to your money to carry on just as before. I fear that GOV will continue to service the deficit by using treasuries. Social security has IOUs for $12 trillion from treasury. GOV won't have any compunction about spending every cent that comes through the door.
GOV claims that they will need to borrow $3 trillion next year. If investors and banks flee to the safety of treasuries, GOV will get "it's" 3 trillion. This might buy a postponement. We also have to service our debt,,, repay or roll over $3.7 trillion,,, pay the FED,,, run the country,,, fight the wars and eat dinner. We also need to do something about $1.4 quadrillion in derivatives.
The FED is lending a helping hand buy creating dollars at the annualized rate of 800%.
Our investors/bond buyers are losing 15% a year historically. Now, they will lose quite a bit more. The Baltic Dry Goods Index is showing that a depression is unavoidable. Every investor is looking for a safe haven. There isn't one.
Ronald Raygun gets the kudos for originating the deregulation. As an actor, he doesn't have to deal with the real world. Slowly, over the decades, the regulations enacted during the depression [No. 1] , were chipped away at.
The temptations connected with a fiat currency, coupled with unlimited greed, have once more brought the system crashing down. GOV and banking are completely enamored with Keynes and Friedman. They march behind the devil.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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can't sit still
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The dollar is crashing badly today. Gold is getting weird. You can't buy it for the COMEX price anywhere. You have to pay a huge premium. COMEX is just a fable as far as pricing goes. Everyone has known that there is six times as much paper gold as physical gold. Nobody was too concerned. This is changing.
"The amount that is registered to dealers, and therefore available for delivery, is only 2.846 million ounces. The delivery notices that have been issued so far in December total 1.26 million ounces, which is 44 percent of the available deliverable gold. There is also the possibility that some of the gold may be encumbered in lending/swap operations."
This means that on 31 december, people will take delivery of 44% of the COMEX gold. This percentage will probably rise because nobody wants to be the last one holding the bag. This has already happened in hedge funds. The early people got their money. The rest got hosed. The january gold contracts will probably wipe out COMEX.
Should be interesting.
"The amount that is registered to dealers, and therefore available for delivery, is only 2.846 million ounces. The delivery notices that have been issued so far in December total 1.26 million ounces, which is 44 percent of the available deliverable gold. There is also the possibility that some of the gold may be encumbered in lending/swap operations."
This means that on 31 december, people will take delivery of 44% of the COMEX gold. This percentage will probably rise because nobody wants to be the last one holding the bag. This has already happened in hedge funds. The early people got their money. The rest got hosed. The january gold contracts will probably wipe out COMEX.
Should be interesting.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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Ugly Dougly
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can't sit still
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Why, you ask? Well gold topped all currencies;
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111223- ... ource=feed
GOV is trying to destroy the dollar;
http://www.mybudget360.com/us-treasury- ... -collapse/
The dollar has dropped about 5 points in 3 days. GOV is inflating the dollar on an annualized rate of 800%. GOV is trying to drive everyone to treasury bonds. Those will be the next bubble to burst. GOV claims that they will borrow $3 trillion next year Problem is: nobody has $3 T to loan. GOV will default on it's bonds.
CITIcorp says that gold will go past $2000 next year. No paper currency has ever survived. Gold demand has never failed. There are other reasons but, this should cover it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111223- ... ource=feed
GOV is trying to destroy the dollar;
http://www.mybudget360.com/us-treasury- ... -collapse/
The dollar has dropped about 5 points in 3 days. GOV is inflating the dollar on an annualized rate of 800%. GOV is trying to drive everyone to treasury bonds. Those will be the next bubble to burst. GOV claims that they will borrow $3 trillion next year Problem is: nobody has $3 T to loan. GOV will default on it's bonds.
CITIcorp says that gold will go past $2000 next year. No paper currency has ever survived. Gold demand has never failed. There are other reasons but, this should cover it.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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can't sit still
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Not just prognostication. Gold has a 5000 year history of holding it's value. Fiat money has a 1,000 year history of 100% failure. Gold just sits there and does nothing. Fiat money, on the other hand, is controlled by P.O.S. politicians. Go ahead,,, put your faith, trust and money in the hands of politicians.
CALPERS just announced that they had lost 103% on their property investments.
Try doing that trick with gold.
CALPERS just announced that they had lost 103% on their property investments.
Try doing that trick with gold.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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can't sit still
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Burn, I can only give you my well-read opinion. Don't take it as gospel. Treasuries are paying almost nothing because of the flight to safety. They are backed by the "Full Faith and Credit of the United States Government" GOV is operating a Ponzi scheme. It is paying out less in interest than it is borrowing. It is trashing the dollar in the hopes of printing money to repay it's debts.
This can't go on for much longer. Everybody talks about a turnaround. There will be NO turnaround until john Q public gets a job in manufacturing. There is NO substitute. We screwed the pooch on finance. Service economy can't cut it. Resource extraction isn't big enough. It has to be manufacturing
GOV says that it will have to borrow $3 trillion next year. What does that say about cash flow? I posted numbers above on GOV income. It's deteriorating rapidly. The US is going to default on it's bonds. It might be as soon as Q3,,, 09.
Alt-A and option-arms are going to blow in the next 2 years. GOV will be too occupied with the banks to take care of foreign investors in bonds. Anyone with half a brain knows that house prices are going to fall much more. Buyers are on strike. The credit markets are not going to unfreeze.
All of these things are going to drag down the system.
Several economists are talking about the bubble blowing in treasuries. You should watch the FOREX for signs of a meltdown. Reportedly, the foreigners have quit buying T-bonds. Supposedly all the bonds are being bought by CIA controlled hedge funds in the Caribbean.
You should read the status of research in stem-cell research. Apparently, researchers are close to the point where they can inject special cells into any organ and it will regenerate. This has enormous implications for reducing costs in gerontology medicine. GOV will be very big into reducing costs when the baby boomers find out that SS and Medi-Care are bankrupt. There should be good investment opportunities in the stem cell field. I don't see treasuries being good for the long run. After all, GOV produces nothing. We're in this mess partly because we didn't produce anything.
Dan
This can't go on for much longer. Everybody talks about a turnaround. There will be NO turnaround until john Q public gets a job in manufacturing. There is NO substitute. We screwed the pooch on finance. Service economy can't cut it. Resource extraction isn't big enough. It has to be manufacturing
GOV says that it will have to borrow $3 trillion next year. What does that say about cash flow? I posted numbers above on GOV income. It's deteriorating rapidly. The US is going to default on it's bonds. It might be as soon as Q3,,, 09.
Alt-A and option-arms are going to blow in the next 2 years. GOV will be too occupied with the banks to take care of foreign investors in bonds. Anyone with half a brain knows that house prices are going to fall much more. Buyers are on strike. The credit markets are not going to unfreeze.
All of these things are going to drag down the system.
Several economists are talking about the bubble blowing in treasuries. You should watch the FOREX for signs of a meltdown. Reportedly, the foreigners have quit buying T-bonds. Supposedly all the bonds are being bought by CIA controlled hedge funds in the Caribbean.
You should read the status of research in stem-cell research. Apparently, researchers are close to the point where they can inject special cells into any organ and it will regenerate. This has enormous implications for reducing costs in gerontology medicine. GOV will be very big into reducing costs when the baby boomers find out that SS and Medi-Care are bankrupt. There should be good investment opportunities in the stem cell field. I don't see treasuries being good for the long run. After all, GOV produces nothing. We're in this mess partly because we didn't produce anything.
Dan
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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Ugly Dougly
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Gold is at an all-time high:ygmir wrote:if you need to ask, I probably can't explain it for you........Ugly Dougly wrote:Why the hell are you shopping for precious metals?
do some research......decide for yourself........
depends on the prognostication you adhere to.......or believe.....
http://www.goldprice.org/
Only a moron would buy it at that price.
I bought mine long before you folk started moaning about gloom and doom. At about half the price it is today.
There is only one principle that is certain: Return to Mean.
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can't sit still
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I converted to PM in '05. My brother bought at $320 an ounce. Even a moron would look smart if he bought at $ 850 when the price went to $ 2,000 as CITICORP predicts for next year. All the central banks are in a race to the bottom at devaluing their respective currencies. It's the only way that they can maintain market share of exports. So far Zimbabwe is winning the race,,, hands down. They've already knocked off 10 zeros from their dollar. They still have to print $ 200 million notes.
The bubble burst in Japan <18> years ago. They lowered their interest rate to .25%. That didn't do it . They injected several hundred billion into the economy as a stimulus. That didn't do it.
The various central bankers have now lowered interest rates copying Japan. They are injecting $ trillions a la Japan. Only a blip of success. The US GOV screwed the pooch years ago. In 1968, GOV injected $1 into the economy and got $1 increase in GDP. It has slowly gone down since then. Now, GOV injects $7 to get $1 increase in GDP.
GOV is happy to give $ trillions to the banks but nothing to the big 3 auto makers. They pump $ trillions to an industry that produces nothing but won't spend a cent on the worlds biggest manufacturer. That kind of rationale doesn't inspire confidence.
The latest "tool" from GOV is called monetary easing. They give the banks 6 or 8 times as much money as they want or need. Shit-for-brains central bankers have the cart before the horse. Nobody is going to borrow this funny money to start or expand their business going into a recession.
Monetary easing has historically only had a small positive effect. Then, it causes great inflation. GOV is running out of ammo for the simple reason that you just can't buy confidence. I never trusted the bastards.
The bubble burst in Japan <18> years ago. They lowered their interest rate to .25%. That didn't do it . They injected several hundred billion into the economy as a stimulus. That didn't do it.
The various central bankers have now lowered interest rates copying Japan. They are injecting $ trillions a la Japan. Only a blip of success. The US GOV screwed the pooch years ago. In 1968, GOV injected $1 into the economy and got $1 increase in GDP. It has slowly gone down since then. Now, GOV injects $7 to get $1 increase in GDP.
GOV is happy to give $ trillions to the banks but nothing to the big 3 auto makers. They pump $ trillions to an industry that produces nothing but won't spend a cent on the worlds biggest manufacturer. That kind of rationale doesn't inspire confidence.
The latest "tool" from GOV is called monetary easing. They give the banks 6 or 8 times as much money as they want or need. Shit-for-brains central bankers have the cart before the horse. Nobody is going to borrow this funny money to start or expand their business going into a recession.
Monetary easing has historically only had a small positive effect. Then, it causes great inflation. GOV is running out of ammo for the simple reason that you just can't buy confidence. I never trusted the bastards.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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ygmir
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well, UD, not quite an all time high, for gold........IIRC.......it's been as high as 1011.25.Ugly Dougly wrote:Gold is at an all-time high:ygmir wrote:if you need to ask, I probably can't explain it for you........Ugly Dougly wrote:Why the hell are you shopping for precious metals?
do some research......decide for yourself........
depends on the prognostication you adhere to.......or believe.....
http://www.goldprice.org/
Only a moron would buy it at that price.
I bought mine long before you folk started moaning about gloom and doom. At about half the price it is today.
There is only one principle that is certain: Return to Mean.
As CSS inferred: you might look smart to buy now if it gets to 2K.
I bought most of my PM's in '99.
I see you are very smart, and, proud of that fact. Well, good for you, of course. Buying at half the current price is a good thing. I'm happy for you. Can that be attributed to intellect, or, luck...........?
I don't know that I'd be stating anthying for certain, in these or the foreseeable future, times...........(return to mean)..........
And, gold is not the only PM worth looking at..........AG is about half it's recent highs, and, less than that compared to the the "Hunt bubble".........
Of course, being a moron, I guess I'll go it alone............
and, it can be fun to argue on the internet............win or lose...........
YGMIR
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Sail Man
- Posts: 4523
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WTF?! Explain to a financial dork here with apologies to Dork Are you saying that if I buy gold as an investment, Uncle Sam may come knocking at my door wanting it back?can't sit still wrote:The British GOV in their infinite wisdom sold a bunch of their gold at the bottom of the market... $250. Now, they want it back. Your best bet is to buy bullion coins. There is less premium. Of course, if you buy numismatic coins, they aren't subject to confiscation. It's laid out on page 16 of the patriot act. All gold sales are recorded. Try to buy from a shop that is bad at record keeping. There is so much fake stuff going around that it's risky to buy from an unknown.
Excuse me Ma'am, your going to feel a small prick.
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Algorithms never survive the first thirty seconds of patient contact
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Algorithms never survive the first thirty seconds of patient contact
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Ugly Dougly
- Posts: 17612
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Sorry about the moron bit, that was only theoretical. 
Gold prices go up when financial times seem to be bad (bear market), generally speaking.
Gold prices go down generally in a bull market. There was an obvious bull market a few years ago, which is when I bought my handful of gold.
The changes in price are never great enough to make it an effective investment, rather as a hedge, a store of value when all other instruments seem to be failing. My purchase was more for the fun of it rather than a place to stash my immense wealth.
At any rate, stock prices are still attractively low. And for most of the companies, their prices are sure to go up again.
Gold prices go up when financial times seem to be bad (bear market), generally speaking.
Gold prices go down generally in a bull market. There was an obvious bull market a few years ago, which is when I bought my handful of gold.
The changes in price are never great enough to make it an effective investment, rather as a hedge, a store of value when all other instruments seem to be failing. My purchase was more for the fun of it rather than a place to stash my immense wealth.
At any rate, stock prices are still attractively low. And for most of the companies, their prices are sure to go up again.
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MoisturePup
- Posts: 395
- Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:32 pm
what I saw
Over the weekend I was down in LA and drove through West Hollywood. Santa Monica Blvd between Doheny and La Cienega is the heart of the LA gay district.
As I turned off of Fountain onto La Cienega I noticed something I'd never seen before: empty store front after empty store front. As I rounded the corner from La Cienega onto Santa Monica Blvd (westbound) the empty store fronts continued almost up to where the giant super gay 24 hour Fitness/Starbucks is that generate a ton of foot traffic.
This struck a chord with me, as the night before I'd be listening to Art Bell (KFI is the only station that comes in through the central valley and I was driving late at night) Art Bell had deviated from his usual conspiracy theory, alien, paranormal topics and instead was doing a paraonoia inducing episode on the economy. That night he had Celente on and one of the things he brought up was an upcoming commercial real estate crash. And there it was right there in front of me, the very next day. In one of the wealthiest areas of Los Angeles empty store front after empty store front.
As I turned off of Fountain onto La Cienega I noticed something I'd never seen before: empty store front after empty store front. As I rounded the corner from La Cienega onto Santa Monica Blvd (westbound) the empty store fronts continued almost up to where the giant super gay 24 hour Fitness/Starbucks is that generate a ton of foot traffic.
This struck a chord with me, as the night before I'd be listening to Art Bell (KFI is the only station that comes in through the central valley and I was driving late at night) Art Bell had deviated from his usual conspiracy theory, alien, paranormal topics and instead was doing a paraonoia inducing episode on the economy. That night he had Celente on and one of the things he brought up was an upcoming commercial real estate crash. And there it was right there in front of me, the very next day. In one of the wealthiest areas of Los Angeles empty store front after empty store front.
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Ugly Dougly
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littleflower
- Posts: 3420
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- Location: rainforest canopy
i'm close to an executive for a rental company ... he told me recently that every time they worked with fannie mae & freddie mac to get a loan on a rental property it was hell. they wanted guarantees and appraisals up the wazoo. he was shocked when he found out how lax they were with individual home buyers.
now they have high occupancy and plenty of cash but can't buy real estate because money is so tight. nobody knows what buildings are worth. investors want 5 year guarantees. so now they are thinking of laying off their redevelopment department ...
it may take awhile to settle things, though.
now they have high occupancy and plenty of cash but can't buy real estate because money is so tight. nobody knows what buildings are worth. investors want 5 year guarantees. so now they are thinking of laying off their redevelopment department ...
it may take awhile to settle things, though.
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MoisturePup
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can't sit still
- Posts: 4645
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
- Location: SoCal
littleflower, you're quite right. It may take a LONG while for things to change.
The "ad men" have convinced Americans that the most important thing in life was to impress your fellow man. Forget about developing character or skills. Just buy a Lexus LX 450 and you became wonderful. Everyone was accumulating debt to give a better and better impression.
More and more people are seeing that this MO is not only unsustainable,,,, it"s stupid. Living one's life centered around the idea of impressing others is just bogus. As the economic ripples spread wider and wider, more and more people are finding this bogus MO to be impossible. Every person who loses their job has 3 friends that decide to be frugal.
Since Keynesian and Friedman economics require an ever-expanding supply of credit and pool of buyers, any stumble causes a slowdown and then a huge contraction. The MOOD has changed. The so-called "irrational exuberance" has been replaced with something more rational. The last thing that the corporatocracy wants is rationality. GOV can send out all the checks that it wants. This won't change a basic mood change.
Since the system is completely based on worthless economic ideas, it has to crash eventually. The ever-increasing bubbles temporarily hid the flaws. When people become unemployed, their vision seems to become much clearer. GOV doesn't want clarity because it becomes obvious that GOV is destroying the economy,,, or by proxy, the banks. There are very few props left holding up the system. Foreign investment is falling off. No more ever-increasing pool of capital.
GOV is primarily concerned with banking and itself. [one and the same] GOV figures that it will just raise the taxes an the silly sods who are stupid enough to do honest work. GOV as a parasite will eventually learn that raising taxes past a certain point will remove the profit motive. The inevitable result of removing motivation is cessation of production.
The swing in mood has killed demand. Lack of demand has killed production. Lack of production is killing the economy. A dead economy re-enforces the negative mood swing. Don't hold your breath waiting for a return to irrational exuberence.
Dan
The "ad men" have convinced Americans that the most important thing in life was to impress your fellow man. Forget about developing character or skills. Just buy a Lexus LX 450 and you became wonderful. Everyone was accumulating debt to give a better and better impression.
More and more people are seeing that this MO is not only unsustainable,,,, it"s stupid. Living one's life centered around the idea of impressing others is just bogus. As the economic ripples spread wider and wider, more and more people are finding this bogus MO to be impossible. Every person who loses their job has 3 friends that decide to be frugal.
Since Keynesian and Friedman economics require an ever-expanding supply of credit and pool of buyers, any stumble causes a slowdown and then a huge contraction. The MOOD has changed. The so-called "irrational exuberance" has been replaced with something more rational. The last thing that the corporatocracy wants is rationality. GOV can send out all the checks that it wants. This won't change a basic mood change.
Since the system is completely based on worthless economic ideas, it has to crash eventually. The ever-increasing bubbles temporarily hid the flaws. When people become unemployed, their vision seems to become much clearer. GOV doesn't want clarity because it becomes obvious that GOV is destroying the economy,,, or by proxy, the banks. There are very few props left holding up the system. Foreign investment is falling off. No more ever-increasing pool of capital.
GOV is primarily concerned with banking and itself. [one and the same] GOV figures that it will just raise the taxes an the silly sods who are stupid enough to do honest work. GOV as a parasite will eventually learn that raising taxes past a certain point will remove the profit motive. The inevitable result of removing motivation is cessation of production.
The swing in mood has killed demand. Lack of demand has killed production. Lack of production is killing the economy. A dead economy re-enforces the negative mood swing. Don't hold your breath waiting for a return to irrational exuberence.
Dan
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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ygmir
- Posts: 30403
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yeah, I've done something similar:
I tend to spend extra money on tools and materials.........
my friend buys a motorcycle, I buy a lathe.........
my neighbor, buys a boat, I get a mig welder..........
I'm slowly, building a mountain retreat.........
tons of steel, copper, granite........
welding rod/wire, propane.......
so,
that's my lavish spending........
but,
now,
when I need a pin and bushing combo for my backhoe, instead of spending half a day driving to find the right combo, and spending 50 bucks for a pin and bushing, I grab a piece of steel stock and turn the pin the right size, grab some tubing and make the correct bushing, mill a groove, and, in an hour, have my parts and spend about a buck.
is it better or worse?
I don't know
Just, for me, it's my way........
I tend to spend extra money on tools and materials.........
my friend buys a motorcycle, I buy a lathe.........
my neighbor, buys a boat, I get a mig welder..........
I'm slowly, building a mountain retreat.........
tons of steel, copper, granite........
welding rod/wire, propane.......
so,
that's my lavish spending........
but,
now,
when I need a pin and bushing combo for my backhoe, instead of spending half a day driving to find the right combo, and spending 50 bucks for a pin and bushing, I grab a piece of steel stock and turn the pin the right size, grab some tubing and make the correct bushing, mill a groove, and, in an hour, have my parts and spend about a buck.
is it better or worse?
I don't know
Just, for me, it's my way........
YGMIR
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littleflower
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:30 pm
- Location: rainforest canopy
everyone, CSS? EVERYONE? i don't think so ...can't sit still wrote:The "ad men" have convinced Americans that the most important thing in life was to impress your fellow man. Forget about developing character or skills. Just buy a Lexus LX 450 and you became wonderful. Everyone was accumulating debt to give a better and better impression.
most people i know are NOT in trouble... and none of them have lexus 450's, either...
and i live in a very fashionable place ...
i am close to someone from china ... she always tells me about chinese people she knows who came to this country, bought big houses, and park their BMWs in the driveway for all to see ... but they have no furniture in their house... can you blame that on our ad people? that's how it is in china far, far more than here ...
or another, who was so happy when eclectic home decor came into style, she was so sick of the faux-expensive homogenous impress-your-neighbor style of the 50's & 60's...
i agree that this crash had to happen, but i suspect your conclusions are a little over-the top. there are many healthy companies out there, the vast majority of people are working, and paying their mortgages... it's bad, and likely to stay bad for awhile, but ...... total collapse? some predict it, sure ... but do most?
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can't sit still
- Posts: 4645
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
- Location: SoCal
" and i live in a very fashionable place ... " Not all of us can live in a rain forest canopy. There just aren't that many to go around.
As far as most people not expecting a crash. You can say that about just about ANY big change. Very few expected it.
Every big bank in this country would be closed if it weren't for the GOV money. Did anyone expect that? Did anyone expect Lehman Bros,,, a member of the Federal Reserve to go .bust.? Whatever the herd may believe means nothing to me. The herd has no time nor the understanding to analyze what is being done to it.
When the Graham-Leachy act was passed, did the herd scream that banking would automatically collapse eventually . Ross Perot told us what would happen with NAFTA... the big sucking sound. Did anyone scream when the US gave "most favored nation trading " trading status to China. The herd is paying no attention whatsoever as long as they get bread and circuses.
Henry Ford said that if people understood banking, they would revolt tomorrow. The herd just won't take the time to do that.
The "29 crash took about 3 years to bottom out. The US economy is just too big to change direction in a few months. Give it time and then look where it's going. This next quarter will be one for the record books.
The world GDP is $50 trillion. The loses so far are $32 trillion. The exposure to bad derivatives is figured at 92% of $ 1.4 quadrillion.
The funny-money creation in the US has been $2 trillion for the last quarter of 2008 and only $1 trillion for the previous 92 years. Do these numbers not paint a picture?
California is 7 weeks from running out of cash but, still has to operate AND service $56 billion in bonds. The credit rating for Ca is lower than Slovakia.
You ain't seen nothing yet. Here's some projections for 2009; http://www.strike-the-root.com/82/allport/allport6.html
As far as most people not expecting a crash. You can say that about just about ANY big change. Very few expected it.
Every big bank in this country would be closed if it weren't for the GOV money. Did anyone expect that? Did anyone expect Lehman Bros,,, a member of the Federal Reserve to go .bust.? Whatever the herd may believe means nothing to me. The herd has no time nor the understanding to analyze what is being done to it.
When the Graham-Leachy act was passed, did the herd scream that banking would automatically collapse eventually . Ross Perot told us what would happen with NAFTA... the big sucking sound. Did anyone scream when the US gave "most favored nation trading " trading status to China. The herd is paying no attention whatsoever as long as they get bread and circuses.
Henry Ford said that if people understood banking, they would revolt tomorrow. The herd just won't take the time to do that.
The "29 crash took about 3 years to bottom out. The US economy is just too big to change direction in a few months. Give it time and then look where it's going. This next quarter will be one for the record books.
The world GDP is $50 trillion. The loses so far are $32 trillion. The exposure to bad derivatives is figured at 92% of $ 1.4 quadrillion.
The funny-money creation in the US has been $2 trillion for the last quarter of 2008 and only $1 trillion for the previous 92 years. Do these numbers not paint a picture?
California is 7 weeks from running out of cash but, still has to operate AND service $56 billion in bonds. The credit rating for Ca is lower than Slovakia.
You ain't seen nothing yet. Here's some projections for 2009; http://www.strike-the-root.com/82/allport/allport6.html
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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can't sit still
- Posts: 4645
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
- Location: SoCal
The market manipulations have driven down the price of oil so low that the Gulf States have to sell their US treasury bonds to make up for the losses. At the same time, they're generally pissed off because we vetoed a U.N. resolution for a cease fire in Gaza. The latest is that we've gone hat-in-hand asking for money'
"“According to reports published in Al-Seyassah, a Kuwaiti newspaper, and some other Gulf newspapers, the United States has asked four Gulf states for financial aid close to $300 billion to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.
Washington is seeking $120 billion from Saudi Arabia, $70 billion from the United Arab Emirates, $60 billion from Qatar and $40 billion from Kuwait."
This is just fucking wonderful. The U.S says that it will have to borrow $4 trillion next year. GOV can call for all the bailouts that it can dream up. There is no way that it can fund these bailouts. The U.S has hundreds of billions$ of bonds in custody holdings for the gulf states. Now, we're asking them to send us their cash too.
While the beast israel is perfecting the art of ethnic cleansing of Arabs in Palestine, we're asking fellow Arabs to pony up money to support Pax Americana. SICK fucking leaders. Especially our dual-citizen pieces of shit.
"“According to reports published in Al-Seyassah, a Kuwaiti newspaper, and some other Gulf newspapers, the United States has asked four Gulf states for financial aid close to $300 billion to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.
Washington is seeking $120 billion from Saudi Arabia, $70 billion from the United Arab Emirates, $60 billion from Qatar and $40 billion from Kuwait."
This is just fucking wonderful. The U.S says that it will have to borrow $4 trillion next year. GOV can call for all the bailouts that it can dream up. There is no way that it can fund these bailouts. The U.S has hundreds of billions$ of bonds in custody holdings for the gulf states. Now, we're asking them to send us their cash too.
While the beast israel is perfecting the art of ethnic cleansing of Arabs in Palestine, we're asking fellow Arabs to pony up money to support Pax Americana. SICK fucking leaders. Especially our dual-citizen pieces of shit.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.
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can't sit still
- Posts: 4645
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:21 pm
- Location: SoCal
Socialism at it's best.
The deficit next year is projected to be 1.4 trillion. That's before any stimulus package. Heres some numbers form the Post;
“Obama has confirmed he will take rapid action to cut taxes for 95% of Americans. At first blush, cutting taxes for 95% sounds like a grand idea. However, look closer. The top 5% of income earners already pay 60% of all income tax, up from the top 36.64% in 1980. The corollary to Obama’s tax reduction, which will go mainly to people who don’t pay income taxes, is that a large increase is scheduled for the high earners.
“A hint of the magnitude of the coming burden was offered by The Washington Post on January 2, when it published its assessment of the cost of the bailout as already announced.
“According to [the] Post , if equally apportioned over the 139 million tax returns filed last year, the toll of the bailout would be $61,871 per taxpayer. But taxes are manifestly not apportioned equally. Even before Obama's tax hikes take effect, 60% of the tax burden falls on 5% of earners – roughly speaking, those who earn $250,000 or more annually.
“If you are one of them, your share of the bailout cost will be about $750,000. Pencil that into your balance sheet.â€
The deficit next year is projected to be 1.4 trillion. That's before any stimulus package. Heres some numbers form the Post;
“Obama has confirmed he will take rapid action to cut taxes for 95% of Americans. At first blush, cutting taxes for 95% sounds like a grand idea. However, look closer. The top 5% of income earners already pay 60% of all income tax, up from the top 36.64% in 1980. The corollary to Obama’s tax reduction, which will go mainly to people who don’t pay income taxes, is that a large increase is scheduled for the high earners.
“A hint of the magnitude of the coming burden was offered by The Washington Post on January 2, when it published its assessment of the cost of the bailout as already announced.
“According to [the] Post , if equally apportioned over the 139 million tax returns filed last year, the toll of the bailout would be $61,871 per taxpayer. But taxes are manifestly not apportioned equally. Even before Obama's tax hikes take effect, 60% of the tax burden falls on 5% of earners – roughly speaking, those who earn $250,000 or more annually.
“If you are one of them, your share of the bailout cost will be about $750,000. Pencil that into your balance sheet.â€
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.