The Long Cold Winter

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 6:01 pm

careful CSS......
speaking ill of the Messiah, or his angelic entourage, can bring charges of blasphemy, and, heresy.......
Torquemada awaits..............in the re-education camp........with an electrode and pillow, just for you.......

MMMEWWWWWUUUUHHHHUUUHHHHUUUU

Post by **Elderberry** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 6:29 pm

can't sit still wrote:
quadrillion.

Damn, I ain't never even heard of a quadrillion before. I'm afraid to ask how many zeros that number has.

JK

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 8:08 pm

ygmir, when I lived in Madrid, there were lots of book sellers on the streets in the center of town. I bought an 1864 Spanish-English dictionary for under $3. One of the things that I passed up on was a book titled "The Importance of Loving",,, written by Torquemada. The king's inquisitor killed a lot of jews for their money. I didn't want to read what he had to say.

I don't believe that Obama had a clear idea of what state the economy was truly in. The fact that he's talking about immediately spending the remaining TARP funds before he's even in office shows panic. They must have briefed him.

The real reason that we're screwed is that he's listening to the people who created this mess,,,, in order to fix it.

There is even one economist who wants to tax savings so that people have to spend all their money or get it taxed away.
The Mises school of economics has all the answers. Nobody will listen to them. As long as we can dream; maybe Obama will let the FED advance $trillions to the U.S. banks and them he'll throw out the FED.
As it stands, we're flogging along using failed policy.
As an aside, 2 of the most reviled men in recent history tossed out the bankers. Adolf Hitler revived Germany in just 2 years by throwing out the banks who were bleeding Germany dry.
Fidel Castro nationalized foreign interests in Cuba when foreigners owned almost the entire productive economy.
Stalin, Idi Amin, Milosevich and all the rest are forgotten,,, not reviled in perpetuity. Kick out the fucking bankers and Cruise will be making a movie about you 60 years later.

!,000,000,000,000,000 The aggregate value of the derivatives is supposed to be $1.400,000,000,000,000

Post by **Elderberry** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 8:32 pm

can't sit still wrote:The aggregate value of the derivatives is supposed to be $1.400,000,000,000,000

At least I know the derivatives are a bad bad thing--along with comodity speculation.

JK

MoisturePup · Post by **MoisturePup** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 12:40 am

can't sit still wrote: Kick out the fucking bankers and Cruise will be making a movie about you 60 years later.

This is just a guess but, if you kick out the bankers AND attempt to exterminate an entire people, you'll have Tom Cruise make a movie about you 60 years later.

Perhaps Obama could just kick out the bankers, and skip the genocide.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:47 am

MoisturePup wrote:
can't sit still wrote: Kick out the fucking bankers and Cruise will be making a movie about you 60 years later.

This is just a guess but, if you kick out the bankers AND attempt to exterminate an entire people, you'll have Tom Cruise make a movie about you 60 years later.

Perhaps Obama could just kick out the bankers, and skip the genocide.

Ice cream with no brandy? ......
come on now MP........

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 9:56 am

can't sit still wrote: !,000,000,000,000,000 The aggregate value of the derivatives is supposed to be $1.400,000,000,000,000

That can buy a LOT of candy!

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 4:38 pm

All 3 of the people that I named were guilty of genocide also. Stalin made sure that more christians were killed in WWII than jews. Idi Amin killed 1.2 million of the Matebele tribe. The people farther downstream on the nile complained because the crocks couldn't keep up with all the bodies. I don't recall how many deaths are attributed to Milosevic. It was enough that the Western powers bombed them back to the stone-age to bring peace. The Dalmation cost has been an ethnic battleground for centuries.

Yes, $ 1.4 Q would buy a lot of candy. A much better use for the money would be to buy the Playa and have Burning man all year long.

Here's a quote from The Daily Reconning, that is worth thinking about;

The World Bank says global trade is shrinking â€“ for the first time in 25 years. And here, is where we pick up the trail. With so many clues...so much data â€“ so much noise! â€“ itâ€™s easy to get lost. But here we have a lead we can work with. Let us begin here.

World trade is shrinking. Across borders, at least, people are buying and selling less. Why would they do that?

We were afraid you would ask that. Because the answer requires more time than we have this morning. So we will simplify. Economies naturally expand and naturally contract. In an expansion, world trade increases. In a contraction, it diminishes. Typically, the big increases in global trade correspond with the rise of imperial powers â€“ armed forces large enough to protect trade routes...guarantee the safety of merchants...and enforce a uniform, reliable commercial code. Trade expanded greatly during the Roman Empire...then contracted sharply when it fell. The Mongol Empire too created a huge free trade area in Eurasia. Then, the British and other European powers expanded their sphere of trade along the shipping lanes...throughout most of the world...until they were rolled back from much of Eurasia by the advance of other hostile empires â€“ the Soviet Union and China.

The last major boom in world trade came with the Reagan Administration. The free-marketers in the â€™80s â€“ both in England and America â€“ lowered taxes and reduced barriers to commerce. Then, a remarkable thing happened â€“ the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving its member states and client countries free to enter into trade with the West. China also realized that its rice bowl would be fuller if it too began selling to the West, rather than threatening it.

That Golden Age of ebullient world trade is now over. It could, of course, be nothing more than a temporary setback to the system of imperial finance that is otherwise in good shape â€“ a mere runny nose and sore throat...nothing to worry about. But the noise we hear sounds more like a death rattle than a head cold.

But the quacks are at work, busily making the situation worse.

Looking at the essentials of the economic situation, we see it in 3D:

A natural Deflation of asset prices in the financial world...

...leading to a natural Depression in the economic world....

...with an army of public officials Determined to turn things around.

Their approach is the old â€˜hair of the dog that bit himâ€™ technique. The world has had too much credit; they propose to give it even more. With $10 trillion in â€œstimulusâ€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Mon Jan 19, 2009 8:36 am

This article has a good representation of the value of various "things" in our economy. Surprisingly, diamonds don't look good at all. The guy also prominently mentions the Kondratieff winter. At this moment, the absolute most important thing to watch is the bond market. The money has fled to treasury bonds for safety. Soon, people will discover that they aren't safe. Forget the stock market. The author makes some predictions that seem a bit hard to swallow but, in these days, who knows?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/115284- ... urce=yahoo
There are some great links here too.
Obama is going to make some changes but,,,, too much time and money was pissed away by bush. He can buy a postponement but he can't buy prosperity.
Dan

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Mon Jan 19, 2009 5:11 pm

LEAP 2000 has been making predictions with a timeline and specifics. Their accuracy has been extremely high on events and very high on timelines. Their latest paper explains that central banks are fighting illiquidity while the problem is actually insolvency;
http://www.leap2020.eu/geab-n-31-is-ava ... a2688.html
The housing and credit bubbles are a result of GOV trying to paper-over the fallout from job losses. The job losses are a result of bare-knuckles capitalism searching out the cheapest labor markets. Since bare-knuckles capitalism has no brain, it only patronizes bottom-dollar production [producers] regardless of the fact that this strategy destroys it's needed base of consumers.
Capitalism produces luxury goods for consumers who can no longer afford them. Since wages are slowly being driven to the global mean, there won't be a renaissance of high wages to buy luxury goods. No renaissance of high wage jobs means no rich consumers to buy luxury products of capitalism.
The various pundits talk about a recovery. Is that a recovery of jobs?.... a recovery of high house prices? A recovery of exports?
The price of a house is ALWAYS a reflection of the wages in the same area. Until Americans are willing to accept global wages, the manufacturing jobs won't return.
Jobs are the only thing that can reduce our internal debt. Exports are the only thing that can reduce our external debt.
GOV is in the process of crashing the dollar to wipe out much of our foreign debt. The dollar crash should also bring us closer to global wage standards. The end result will be that we still won't be able to afford luxury goods.
As the rest of the world develops their own manufacturing capacity, the wage imbalance between the U.S. and the developing world will be slowly equalized. It hit Japan first. Now it's our turn.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Thu Jan 22, 2009 7:23 pm

This site has an animated graph that gets the debt into perspective;
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post71727
This site has a very interesting historical perspective of our problems;
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1232546472.php
It seems that we've overdone it a bit

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:19 pm

can't sit still wrote: A scheduled disaster

Whatever happened to this? I got ten cases of MRE and 1000 rounds of ammo for nothing???

Toolmaker · Post by **Toolmaker** » Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:54 pm

Ugly Dougly wrote:
can't sit still wrote: A scheduled disaster
Whatever happened to this? I got ten cases of MRE and 1000 rounds of ammo for nothing???

I go thru that in 3 months.. i'll take any 308 or 7.62 off yer hands at current sportsmans guide pricing.

Obama has only been in for a lil while.. give hime a few weeks. The news will tell you all you need to know.

Watch job loss vs. job gain.. and watch out for the increase in suicides. Alot of folks are still homeless after losing their houses and more homeless are expected, record numbers in fact. Unemployment will be at an all time record breaking high as well though reports stats are often only people who qualify for some assistance. Once you're off their books they dont count ya anymore.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:18 pm

Hey, i just quoted Powell and Biden. I wouldn't be in too much of a rush if I were you. Obama says that he's going to stimulate everything. It won't happen. Our creditors are cashing in their bonds to meet deficits. They aren't going to buy any new ones. There is no way in hell that obama can borrow $2 trillion to run the GOV and stimulate anything.

The lying sack of shit who preceded him set him up good!!!
"The end result is that it looks like there is going to be a lot of borrowing and printing of money, as Bloomberg.com reported that â€œThe U.S. budget deficit soared to a record in the first quarter of the 2009 fiscal year,â€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Wed Jan 28, 2009 8:22 am

Well, the economy is certainly center stage now. Everyone is throwing out terms with little understanding in the public. The current worry is velocity of money. I found a good explanation; http://www.rense.com/general84/monet.htm
The other much-debated term is deflation. Are we in deflation, disinflation, inflation, balance-sheet reduction or shrinking of demand in a supply-and-demand world?
If demand is shrinking, is that the same as deflation?
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post72798

I see headlines stating that consumer confidence is still low. Well, I guess that that just proves that consumers can read. WTF do they think is going to be the result when over 1/2 million jobs a month are lost,,,, when stock markets worldwide lose $ 35 trillion,,, when there is a $ 7 trillion loss in housing equity?
Consumers aren't spending and GOV is going down a black hole. Fiat currencies are in danger of doing what all fiat currencies have done throughout history. We don't have much time before Argentina and Zimbabwe come to America. Obama's approval rating went down 15 points in the first 2 weeks. What does that say for confidence?
His infrastructure spending will be far too late.
Washington acts like the banking sector is the only important part of the economy. It produces nothing! As long as the focus is on the fortunes of the bankers and not the fortunes of joe average, America will not turn around.
Dan

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Wed Jan 28, 2009 9:34 am

So the Democrats want to send out money in the form of a check from the Treasury, but the Republicans want a "tax rebate" instead, which amounts to a check from the Treasury.
So while they're haggling over what color to paint the money, we're going down the toilet. WTF?

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Wed Jan 28, 2009 1:12 pm

GOV is flat broke and they want to cut taxes. Better have a VERY large toilet

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:48 pm

Ugly Dougly wrote:So the Democrats want to send out money in the form of a check from the Treasury, but the Republicans want a "tax rebate" instead, which amounts to a check from the Treasury.
So while they're haggling over what color to paint the money, we're going down the toilet. WTF?

Dougly, were you expecting a check in the mail?
"The CBO says only $136 billion of the $355 billion that House leaders want to allocate to infrastructure programs will be spent by October 1, 2010. The rest will be spent after the recession/depression is projected to have ended. The report does not analyze the entire $825 billion stimulus package. "
So, they're going to spend $ 136 Billion in the next 21 months. That will make a big splash.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:59 pm

can't sit still wrote:GOV is flat broke and they want to cut taxes. Better have a VERY large toilet

It's kind of interesting how gov always looks at deficits as not enough revenue,

as opposed to to much spending........

Toolmaker · Post by **Toolmaker** » Thu Jan 29, 2009 7:55 pm

28,000 Iraqi refugees coming to South Florida. Just what we need right now.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Fri Jan 30, 2009 5:36 am

nice.........
do you have to have multiple language public forms, and provide interpreters there, too, for all the immigrants?

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Fri Jan 30, 2009 7:57 am

my neighborhood is full of russian jewish refugees ... west hollywood does everything in english, spanish, and russian! i always thought that a charming combination. but it's even more charming that it all seems to work out peacefully....

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:01 am

or, move to America, learn english.............

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:42 pm

My 20 minutes of college did not prepare me to figure out what's happening with the economy. I see the present fair enough. It's the future results of present actions that eludes me. Maybe someone else can add some brainpower. I'm thinking about money.

Reportedly, our central bank only produces 5% of the money supply. The banks create the rest.
In the last quarter of 2008, the FED produced $ 2 trillion new dollars. The accepted definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply. Now, it would seem that the action of the FED is extremely inflationary. GOV hates deflation and will do anything to produce inflation... hoping to pay off the foreign debt on the cheap.
At the same time, we have to remember that the banks create "new" money by writing new loans. Every loan that is paid off destroys money. The banks aren't making many new loans. Many people and companies are paying off their existing loans. The same goes for defaults. I believe that defaults cause a "writedown" and destroy capital.

So, we have an enormous destruction of capital,,, about $ 20 trillion lost in capital and equity. Does this $ 20 trillion equate to an equivalent reduction in the money supply? It can't be equivalent because much of it was paper profit.
How much money destruction is balancing against the money creation from the FED?

The default rate of commercial RE and credit cards and ALT-A loans is getting ready to take off. CITI, B of A and JP Morgan are holding about $ 140 trillion in trashy instruments like CDOs. The Payout from Lehman's CDOs was about 91.7 % loss. There is about a $ trillion in credit card debt that is currently failing at about 10 %. Job losses are expected to make this much worse

Gov is doing it's damnedest to stamp out deflation and kick up inflation. It really doesn't look like GOV can stop deflation with a few trillion dollars. Most of this money is stuck tight in the financial economy where it doesn't really affect prices anyway.
GOV is shitting bricks because it can't force people to borrow money. Money creation is dying. Wealth destruction worldwide is up to to $ 50 trillion and all that GOV can do is print more paper.
It really appears to me that wealth destruction will overrun and flatten any "money" creation that GOV does. Wealth destruction along with demand destruction will keep deflation coming at us. We're slowly seeing a demarcation being drawn between "money" and wealth. As the gulf widens, there will be less demand for "money" and more for wealth.
The US mint set a new record for silver sales last year,,, 20 million silver eagles as opposed to 10 million for the previous year... also a record.
When the demand reduction reached the FOREX, it will be ugly.
Dan

Post by **Elderberry** » Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:50 pm

littleflower wrote:my neighborhood is full of russian jewish refugees ... west hollywood does everything in english, spanish, and russian! i always thought that a charming combination. but it's even more charming that it all seems to work out peacefully....

Really? I thought it was only two--the Gays and the Russians, and they don't get along at all! Go to a city council meeting one time! LOL

JK

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:01 pm

lol ... i think the russians dislike all non-russians ... we have robbed them of their once very affordable housing...

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:01 am

Russians are a generally angry aggressive people......

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:12 am

i hate to generalize .... and i do have a russian friend who i have known for 20 years ... she told me where to find excellent caviar, at an excellent price ...!

i think most people, wherever they are, just want to live peacefully. but then, i'm an optimist.

Post by **Elderberry** » Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:16 am

ygmir wrote:Russians are a generally angry aggressive people......

LOL That is so true! Actually, I am of Russian ancestry. 2nd generation on my dad's side and 3rd generation on my mom's side. When I first moved to West Hollywood from Ohio, I was amazed at all the signs in Russian here. Actually, I was sort of excited thinking I might connect with my heritage. Well, it turned out that the Russians here were all Jewish--I was brought up Russian Orthodox. And they were all refugees, all loud, all rude. Just to walk by two of them talking you would think they were having a big argument, but turns out that's just the way they talk.

My dad always used to say 'those damn Russian Jews'--I don't even remember what would set him off about them, but all of a sudden that thought came back to me--maybe it's just the Jewish Russians? Who knows. I haven't found a conclave of Russian Christian immigrants to compare them too.

JK

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:28 am

my russian friend is a jew who came to the US via marriage in the '80s. when the USSR fell, the orthodox christians started attacking the jews, and that is why they are here. it always depresses me that such hate could result from new found freedom. but, anyhow, my friend got her mother and sister out of russia, and moved them to weho.

i don't remember her stories of what was going on in russia that prompted the move, but she did tell me that her mother was cuckoo - never quite recovered from the siege of leningrad - very fat, and old. moving her was difficult, but things were bad enough for her in russia to move her here. of course, a great many russian jews emigrated to the US or israel in the early '90s.

there are, no doubt, different versions of such events...