The Long Cold Winter

[Toolmaker]

On the subject of vodka drinkers.. I have only had the pleasure of having known 2 from the workplace. Both were excellent machinists and hard workers with solid ethics. Didn't get to see an angry side to either fella but did get to see them hold down ridiculous amounts of vodka and experience paper vodka.

[Oldguy]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090131/ap_ ... rm_outages

Here is the news page on the recent icestorm. Many have died, FEMA is not reacting well. The new Homeland chief needs to get on the stick..IMHO.

[can't sit still]

"Everyone should realize that fiat money – by its very design – has a PERFECT historical track record, where longevity is concerned, in that it has always failed – there are no exceptions. History dictates that pure fiat money systems generally have life-spans of 30 – 40 years. Folks would do well to remember that President Nixon closed the gold window in August, 1971 – meaning that our current U.S. Dollar-centric fiat money regime celebrated its 37th birthday back in August, 2008. "
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1233606303.php

[can't sit still]

This guy has written a very interesting article http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north683.html
I've been wondering if this crash was hoped for at some level by some group, CFR, Iluminaughty or someone, Rockefeller, et al. Many people are claiming that a worldwide crash will bring us closer to one world gov. GOV has become increasingly fascist for the last 100 years. Rockwell seems to believe that the current crash will be the undoing of all the current power groups.
"The power base of the modern fascist State is unraveling rapidly. "
The US borrowed 80 % of the savings worldwide and kept Americans working. That artificial maintenance of a high employment rate is coming to an end. Much of that money was gobbled up by the military-industrial partnership. The Pentagon is currently demanding that GOV guarantees that the military gets all the money that it wants.
As the funding dries up to a trickle, will Americans settle for guns but no butter?

Will the military start wars to preserve it's funding? We built a $ 2 billion plane that crashed in Guam because 1 sensor had condensation in it. Can the military possibly justify this kind of expenditure? The US military is the biggest consumer of petroleum in the world. GOV and the dollar will crash. Will the military take all domestic petroleum for itself?
When the USSR crashed, the military was penniless. Will that happen here? Will Canada invade? [/u]

[can't sit still]

"Incredibly powerful events are in the works, to be unleashed within the next several months"
"Heck, even the United Nations drug watchdog group has let the cat out of the bag, announcing that Western banks have been dependent upon narcotics trafficking money, "
"Martial law looks inevitable, not due to other attacks on our cities, but rather from economic disintegration and breakdown."
"Just this week, Treasury Secy Geithner mentioned the word ‘collapse "
Marx; " “Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take on more and more expensive debt, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to the bankruptcy of all banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gol ... +Willie+CB

Gee, they expect unrest;
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 729034.ece

I wonder why? " I've mentioned, there are over 11,000 elementary age children in Orange County, CA who are homeless" Imagine that, homeless people in the OC.
http://homelessness.change.org/blog/vie ... melessness

The US had a good time,,, made lots of money and then lost it's job. Now, were spending down our wealth.
"This is not wealth production. This is wealth consumption. Do enough of this nonsense and you can destroy the livelihoods of an entire generation."
http://mises.org/story/3331

The West is rapidly losing it's industrial capacity. Celente says that the US will be a post-industrial country in 4 years. Just WTF are we going to do for a livelihood?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... risis.html
If we can't manufacture something, how are we going to pay for imports? We export movies and food. We can't all be actors and farmers.
We trained the rest of the world to do our job for us. They have learned very well. An Indian software developer is happy to make $ 40,000 a year. China has more honor students than we have students. Containerized shipping has put our laborers in direct competition with sweatshops in Asia.
Our unemployment is projected to reach 45 % to 70 %. Do you have a plan?

[Ugly Dougly]

FLAT money or FIAT money?
Most money is FLAT as well as FIAT, when you get down to it.

[can't sit still]

I hear that both parties are talking about nationalizing the banks. The banks were the big problem last time in '29. Roosevelt had a meeting with them and they all agreed that they would get in line and work as hard as they could things going again. They didn't want to be nationalized back then either. Funny, the FED was created 16 years earlier to avoid economic swings. 16 years of the FED and we got the worst crash of all time.

[can't sit still]

Well, it looks like Eastern Europe is going to meltdown first,,, not counting Iceland. It looked for a while that GB would win the race,,, it's still up for grabs. But Latvia and a few neighbors are worse than Britain. The Euro doesn't look to have much of a future either.
It's too, too sad
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8923.html

[can't sit still]

This is a very interesting 6 page article;
"And while homeownership has some social benefits—a higher level of civic engagement is one—it is costly to the economy. The economist Andrew Oswald has demonstrated that in both the United States and Europe, those places with higher homeownership rates also suffer from higher unemployment. Homeownership, Oswald found, is a more important predictor of unemployment than rates of unionization or the generosity of welfare benefits."

"The Stanford economist Paul Romer famously said, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.â€

[can't sit still]

It looks like Europe is running scared. The East is soon to bring down the West. [Europe]
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north689.html
It also looks like the dollar will continue to benefit from all the currency problems worldwide.
It's hard to believe but, The US was the most conservative country in the world [outside Japan] when it came to monetary inflation.
In '07, the dollar was inflated 19%,,, the Chinese Remnimbi...84%

The US is in full-on economic war with the East. As the East continues to lose this war, they are unable to purchase our bonds. Russia and China are redeeming bonds to cover their deficits. Japan keeps falling deeper and deeper. OPEC is selling their bonds to cover deficits.
The US will soon be in the position where it will have to default on it's external debt or get rid of it's military. Obama has already said that he's going to do huge reductions of the military. I expect the Pentagon to completely stonewall him. Maybe they'll trot out some more terrorist threats to get a nice expensive war going.
He's going to have his hands full.

[Oldguy]

Dow hit 7142 today and has been bouncing on the bottom. I believe this indeed is the bottom we have been waiting for.

Spring forward on the eighth of March. Full moon on the eleventh. The road crews are back on the job in my area. I dumped my radio-flyer today (It was full of water.), this latest storm dropped 3 inches of rain. Ground still too wet to turn in my garden. I think the middle of March is when things really get popping... I hope.

[Ugly Dougly]

We're still watching the pundits chanting "We're doomed! ...oh by the way, consumer confidence is down, I wonder why? That's why we're doomed!!!"

[can't sit still]

Here's a couple of quotes from I tulip;
"If you look back over the dozens of articles and newsletters published by us years before this crisis, warning you about it, you will find that they describe events developing more slowly and less dire than the actual events that transpired with astonishing speed. In short, while we have been accused of making overly apocalyptic forecasts we were, in the event, overly optimistic. What if we still are?"

"We are getting a 1930 to 1933 financial system and debt deflation collapse but in Internet time. The Internet that operated so efficiently for ultra efficient transmission of pricing information and execution of transactions is accelerating the financial and economic crisis process far more quickly than governments can respond to it. A 20th century international regulatory and trade institutional framework is no match for 21st century computer networked financial markets."

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... #post78579

The next meeting of the G-20 is april, 2009. They never reached much of an agreement in the last few meetings. Things are moving so fast, April is just too far away. Eastern Europe isn't going to last 3 weeks. When they default, it will bring down Western Europe.
"European banks may need £16.3 trillion bail-out, EC document warns"
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north689.html

These problems take lots of time to address. They can't very well fix them after the crash.

The financial crashes have hit faster then the smart people thought possible. The fallout in the producing economy has been less and later than thought by the same smart people. Obviously, I'm talking about fallout besides job losses. The worst part of the fallout hasn't happened because the banks haven't closed.

The expected loss from all the derivative instruments is about $ 1.25 quadrillion. There just isn't that much money anywhere. The bailouts are only about $ 1.5 trillion. There isn't any way to cover all the losses.
Sooner or later, the FED is going to run out of money. The FDIC and the IMF have just been recapitalized but, it's still not enough.
Sooner or later, these problems will move into the general economy. Everything that is tied to discretionary spending is falling off a cliff. The job losses aren't going to stop any time soon. This is going to take some time to play out. Japan is our best example. They've been down for 16 years.

[Ugly Dougly]

People still need to eat, and they still need to live indoors. And the government can still priint money. The rest is all commentary.

[can't sit still]

The operative word is "need". That doesn't mean "receive"
"[we may be nearing a million payrolls losses per month before long] "
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009 ... -recession
If you think that someone in GOV is looking out for you,,,,, lotsa luck.

[Rabbi Dali Rick]

Well at least the FDIC will protect my money up to $150k, so since I only have $XX, you think i'm worried?.....

doh!....

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the fund it uses to protect customer deposits at U.S. banks could dry up amid a surge in bank failures. Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year.

“Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.â€

[can't sit still]

Rabbi Rick, i got the axle for my trailer. I'm going to pick it up one of these weekends and install a third axle to carry the tractor.
GOV is absolutely amazing. Obama's budget projections are based on a turnaround in the economy towards the end of the year. Buffet said that treasuries are in a bubble and are going to blow later this year. Take your pick.

[can't sit still]

"One of the traits of the current defstag, and I don’t exaggerate when I use that word, means that there are too many goods chasing too few buyers, too much money chasing too few profitable investment outlays, too many workers chasing too few jobs; too many banks chasing too few impoverished savers and depositors. etc. This is true not only of capitalism’s current cyclical slump but applies to all facets of the crisis. The essence of the crisis of capitalism is overproduction. Or over-accumulation."

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... leId=12471
This is probably the best article that I've seen on the current situation and capitalism in general. It's a bit long but, the scope and information is breathtaking.
Dan

[Ugly Dougly]

I know, let's have an Emergency Christmas to stimulate demand!
Where's my gift?

[can't sit still]

Sounds good to me. Better have it soon;
http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-W ... Of-It.html

[Oldguy]

New Moon, Spring is on the way.......
A Message From the Hopi Elders, 2009

You have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour.
Now you must go back and tell the people that this is The Hour.
Here are the things that must be considered:
Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in the right relation?
Where is your water supply?
Know our garden.
It is time to speak your Truth.
Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.
This could be a good time!
There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid.
They will try to hold on to the shore.
They will feel like they are being torn apart, and they will suffer greatly.
Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off toward the middle of the river.
Keep our eyes open, and our heads above the water.
See who is there with you and celebrate.
At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally, least of all Ourselves!
For the moment we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.
The time of the lonely wolf is over.
Gather yourselves!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude and vocabulary.
All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in celebration.
We are the ones we have been waiting for.

The Elders,
Oraibi, Arizona

[Ugly Dougly]

Do the Elders have a website?

[Rabbi Dali Rick]

http://www.geocities.com/whitecrystalmi ... phecy.html





the rebbi

[Rabbi Dali Rick]

U.S. Army To Buy $6 Million Of Riot Equipment


The U.S. Army is to invest $6 million in riot equipment, a fact that has furthered fears that troops will be used inside the U.S. in order to quell any civil unrest resulting from the ongoing economic crisis.
The U.S. Army Contracting Agency, based at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, has a post on the Federal Business Opportunities website, requesting the equipment and has received several notices of interest from potential vendors.
The request titled “84–RIOT EQUIPMENTâ€

[can't sit still]

Well, they can take their shopping list here; http://jya.com/stoa-atpc.htm#3

It's stupid to go out and riot. Just watch TV. Think about it; April 15 is coming up. Just watch TV. Ignore your taxes. What can they do? L. A. has to empty 5 prisons. It costs $ 30--40,000 a year to incarcerate someone. They can't take your house, it's negative equity. What can they do besides threaten you? There are more than 2.3 million Americans in prison,,, 7.3 million in the system http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/03/02/rec ... index.html
If you riot, you might break a fingernail. If you stay home and ignore GOV, the worst they can do is threaten to give you 3 squares a day. They'll tell you that you can't get a job if you have a record. Well, you can't get a job anyway. Tell them that if they give you a job at the prison, you'll let them attach 25% of your wages..... you don't really care which side of the bars you're on.
SO, sign up for food stamps,,,, move in to an empty house,,,, tell GOV to piss off. Tell em, if they don't like it, it's going to cost them $ 35,000 a year. Just don't do it in Maricopa county,,, Joe Arpio will make you wear pink underwear.

[Oldguy]

Military prisons like Ft. Leavenworth use riot gear. The new army uses riotgear in urban warfare all over the world. It is just routine procurement.

When I was in prison, I noticed several inmates who might like pink clothing.

Just like Burningman, living in hot tents, greasemeat sandwiches, no regular showers, greeters at the gate, a fence around the area, loud noises in the middle of the night... good times.

At my " camp " we had our own temple of sorts. Singing on Sunday. Prayer circles. Gifted meals, candy ( at Christmas ). We waited in line to make a phone call. The Rangers were a little more demanding however.

[can't sit still]

Well, it's starting to be obvious that nobody in power has a clue.
""Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half," Schwarzman told an audience at the Japan Society. "This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime."

But the U.S. government is committed to the preservation of financial institutions, he said, and will do whatever it takes to restart the economy."

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInve ... 6Z20090310
I definitely believe that GOV wants to preserve the financial institutions. They don't seem to care about the producing economy. Banks produce nothing. The dumb fucks are ignoring the fact that mammoth job losses will preclude any return of demand.
Without a consumer economy, the banks will eat shit.

Americans refused to accept the reality that full employment is unrealistic. GOV borrowed 80 % of the savings worldwide to give everybody a job..... all done with borrowed money. After the war, we had full employment because we had all the manufacturing capacity. As foreign manufacturing competition whittled away at our competitiveness, we borrowed money to keep unrealistically high employment.
The system is broken and high unemployment is going to be a fact of life.

Since we had an overshoot of employment for decades, we're going to have a brutal correction until we're in line with global norms,,,, AND wages.
""24 Million Go from Thriving to Struggling," says a headline at USA Today. "
"
Obama says he's going to put millions to work with his spending proposals. He pointed to 60 new jobs in Maryland, on a highway-paving project:

"That's how we're going to get this country back on its feet," he said." " And in February alone, 651,000 jobs were lost. "
Half of the $ 200 million earmarked for this year is tax cuts, not spending. I don't believe that Obama is serious about jobs.
"But 3.5 million jobs almost two years from now isn't enough in the face of an economy that has already lost 4.4 million jobs, and is losing 600,000 more each month.""

You may have heard of Martin Armstrong. He developed a "perfect" program that accurately predicted economic crashes. He refused to give the code to GOV. They've held him for EIGHT years without charges,,, other than contempt. If there is anyone contemptible, it's definitely our GOV
" Now, poor Martin is a convict...serving out a five-year sentence, after having spent eight years in jail for contempt of court, on charges related to an alleged Ponzi scheme. "Alleged" is an important word, because Armstrong was never tried or convicted on the original charges."

"Even from his jail cell, Armstrong still keeps up with the economy. His 8.7-year cycle theory predicted a downturn would begin in the summer of '07 - which it did. But now...get this...he says the recession will last for 23-26 years!"
Read up on Armstrong. He's the real thing. GOV wouldn't persecute him so badly if he were a quack.

The central bankers caused this problem trying to consolidate the banking business in just a few hands. They went too far overboard in writing 1.4 Quadrillion in "insurance" on loans that they knew were going to fail. Everybody got onboard in the party. They really weren't concerned about the producing economy. They just figured that sooner or later, it would come back. As is all too common; they believed their own bullshit.

The weak point is that they have all their money "safely" in bonds. There isn't enough gold to do what they had done previously. "They" were trying to do a bank consolidation, NOT a mammoth depression. Now, they've endangered their bonds.
The deflation is going to continue because there is just too much momentum and job loss.
Capitalism has no brain. It will serenely destroy labor to maximize it's profits. Like any entity that has devolved to parasitism, it doesn't care about it's host. As it destroys job niches, it doesn't notice that it is destroying the buying power if it's customers.
When most members of society are reduced to survival wages or the dole, capitalism will have to wake up and see that it has destroyed it's markets for non-survival goods.

Carried to it's logical conclusion, banks will own all the marbles. They produce the money out of thin air. They charge a percentage of all transactions. They can buy up everything. That makes them VERY happy.
A capitalist system with full automation results in a tiny minority who work in raw material extraction and a tiny minority who control the money supply. The rewards of capitalism are payed to the producers and to the owners of the capital,,,, a tiny minority.
True, not everything can be automated. BUT, how will the consumer economy do with 40 % unemployment?

We have the huge job losses because of an ongoing , increasing utilization of computers to displace pools of workers. Any [almost] work niche that demands good wages is replaced by a computer or a slave laborer.
If I have to compete with the Asian labor market for an assembly job, I have to take global wages. Since I don't have any money, my dentist has to lower his charges. Same with many other job niches.

The whole system is unworkable. GOV inflates the money supply much faster than the GDP grows. That means that the banks need high interest to maintain "value" for their money. It only works if there is unlimited population growth. If the interest on money is higher than growth, it all falls flat on it's face. GOV blew bubbles to avoid this and prolong the good times. We had to suck in foreign money with bogus loan ratings just to keep "running fast enough" to avoid failure.

The end result of postponing the final reckoning of market forces is a more brutal alignment with market realities.
Keynesian economics is the back-door realization/introduction of socialism. Obama knows that he can't save the economy. He wants to slide in socialism to save the country. Putin already warned him that it won't work. Socialism negates greed but wipes out incentive at the same time.

By his appointments, Obama has given free rein to the banks. I assume that they will follow the Russian model. I suppose they can make the big money in privatization of public infrastructure. Meanwhile, comrade, we will get forked.

[Apollonaris Zeus]

The winter is not long enough
the snow is not deeep enough
the cold not cold enough


winter is joke

[can't sit still]

Zeus, I read a couple of your posts, You're feeling frisky tonight.

[Ugly Dougly]

Spring is coming. Buy your stocks and mutual funds now while they're still cheap.