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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:56 pm

"UN report on glaciers melting is based on 'speculation'"
"even the scientist who was the subject of the original story admits it was not based on fact. "
"Dr Syed Hasnain, an Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said that the claim was "speculation" and was not supported by any formal research. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthn ... ation.html
We donna need any stinking research. Just give us the money. :lol:
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Post by dr.placebo » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:30 pm

Even if the Telegraph article were to be correct, all it means is that one particular prediction is off the mark (and should have been vetted by the IPCC). It does not have anything to do with the general evidence of glacial melting.

But let's look at the source of the article. The Telegraph is a strongly conservative paper in the UK, and a leading source of climate change denials. What I find interesting about the side bars to the story is that one of the "Related Articles", as chosen by the Telegraph, is titled "What right do Colin Powell and Tom Ridge have to lecture the Republican party?" (a Telegraph article of 25 May 2009). This is an article that bashes Powell and Ridge, but is unrelated to climate change. Another "related" article is titled "Leading climate change cheerleader James Hansen has 'lost the plot'" (a Telegraph article of 17 Feb 2009), which alleges that Dr. Hansen is insane, but has no credible sources, and has no . Also, the Telegraph lies about what people say, with this being a recent example.

In other words, if you get some fish wrapped in a copy of the Telegraph you should throw out the fish, just to be safe.

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Post by dr.placebo » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:31 pm

[edit bug]

"which alleges that Dr. Hansen is insane, but has no credible sources, and has no ."

should have read

"which alleges that Dr. Hansen is insane, but has no credible sources, and has no bearing on the observed data about climate change."

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Post by theCryptofishist » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:51 pm

dr.placebo wrote: In other words, if you get some fish wrapped in a copy of the Telegraph you should throw out the fish, just to be safe.
*a single tear runs down her cheek*
The Lady with a Lamprey

"The powerful are exploiting people, art and ideas, and this leads to us plebes debating how to best ration ice.
Man, no wonder they always win....." Lonesomebri

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Post by can't sit still » Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:56 pm

*a single tear runs down her cheek*
Aahaa, a quote from Waterworld ,,, a completely ridiculous global warming piece of propaganda. Dennis Hopper.
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Post by theCryptofishist » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:12 pm

He stole it.

[youtube][/youtube]
The Lady with a Lamprey

"The powerful are exploiting people, art and ideas, and this leads to us plebes debating how to best ration ice.
Man, no wonder they always win....." Lonesomebri

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Post by can't sit still » Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:31 pm

You're grasping at straws,,, just like The New Scientist;
"The bottom line is that, just as a few hot years do not prove global warming is real, neither would a few cool years prove it is not. Models suggest that it is perfectly possible for a decade or two of cooling to occur even when there is a long-term warming trend."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1 ... rming.html
Yeah right, they've got it covered,, no matter what the temperature is. :lol:
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Post by dr.placebo » Tue Jan 19, 2010 12:01 pm

I don't follow your line of argument, css. Are you saying that a few years of either warming or cooling is significant evidence for climate change? If you are not saying that a few years is conclusive evidence, then what objection do you have to what was stated in the New Scientist?

BTW, it's not really cooling off. 2000-2009 ranks as the warmest decade recorded, and 2009 ranks as the 2nd hottest year. See

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Where-d ... where.html
http://www.skepticalscience.com/2009-2n ... ntury.html
http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailing ... re2009.pdf

I realize that I should have dug out a few more cites about the related glacier data. So here's a post from Climate Progress:

http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/18/s ... evel-rise/

which points out that the IPCC is sloppy in other cases as well, most of them underestimating the changes. I'd like the IPCC to be more accurate, but only citing where they have been alarmist on the warming side ignores where they have been complacent on the cooling side.

As for the Telegraph, they are in cherry-picking mode, only picking up problems in the IPCC reports where it suits them. Wankers.

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Post by can't sit still » Tue Jan 19, 2010 12:32 pm

Here's an immensely informative video;

It's 31 minutes of info and about 15 of Q&A. Great stuff.
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Post by littleflower » Tue Jan 19, 2010 1:13 pm

dr.placebo wrote:But let's look at the source of the article. The Telegraph is a strongly conservative paper in the UK, and a leading source of climate change denials. What I find interesting about the side bars to the story is that one of the "Related Articles", as chosen by the Telegraph, is titled "What right do Colin Powell and Tom Ridge have to lecture the Republican party?" (a Telegraph article of 25 May 2009). This is an article that bashes Powell and Ridge, but is unrelated to climate change. Another "related" article is titled "Leading climate change cheerleader James Hansen has 'lost the plot'" (a Telegraph article of 17 Feb 2009), which alleges that Dr. Hansen is insane, but has no credible sources, and has no . Also, the Telegraph lies about what people say, with this being a recent example.

In other words, if you get some fish wrapped in a copy of the Telegraph you should throw out the fish, just to be safe.
an astonishing lecture from a guy who has been known to post stuff from sources such as The Nation and the DNC.

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Post by dr.placebo » Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:07 pm

littleflower wrote:an astonishing lecture from a guy who has been known to post stuff from sources such as The Nation and the DNC.
I just ran a quick scan from this discussion, and I don't find any cites from me of either the Nation or from the DNC, neither of which I would trust all that much on climate change. Actually, I would not trust their information to be unbiased on any topic, although sometimes biased information can be revealing.

A lot of my cites come from climate blogs. I do try to cross-check the info, going back to original sources where I can, but time is always short. Here are some of the places I trust (at least, mostly):

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
http://climateprogress.org/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
http://www.realclimate.org/
http://tamino.wordpress.com/
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/

I am well aware that climate change deniers probably don't like any of these sites and do not consider them reliable. These sites generally pass my personal objectivity and consistency filters, but I don't consider any of them to be infallible.
can't sit still wrote:Here's an immensely informative video;
l=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1
It's 31 minutes of info and about 15 of Q&A. Great stuff.
I agree about the Peak Oil arguments. Oil is simply not going to become cheaper, given the growing demand and shrinking supply. The points about OPEC consumption are especially apt. I'm much less confident that the cost of transportation fuel is going to cause an end to globalism, though.

What I see as especially dangerous is that oil prices will become high enough to make the conversion of coal (especially bituminous coal) to liquid fuel attractive. It only requires relatively abundant coal and a desperate need for liquid hydrocarbons. The technology exists, and produced a lot of fuel in WW2 Germany. It's a wasteful and dirty process, but it could easily be the China (or US) fallback position, and it could drive CO2 levels well beyond the business-as-usual scenario (which is bad enough). For a pro-coal position, see:

http://www.ultracleanfuels.com/

Calling this process "clean" is like calling Stalin "beneficent."

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Post by can't sit still » Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:50 pm

"I am well aware that climate change deniers probably don't like"
Hey, I never denied climate change. It's far too obvious. But, since you used the plural, it doesn't necessarily include me. We're in climate change,, big time.

" I'm much less confident that the cost of transportation fuel is going to cause an end to globalism," That's a tough one. The Emma Maersk can bring a container from China for less than it costs to move that same container 100 miles inland. I'd expect that heavy, low-value goods would be the first affected.

"It only requires relatively abundant coal and a desperate need for liquid hydrocarbons." It remains to be seen if coal can be converted with a process that uses substantially less water.

Much of this debate leaves out the buying power of the consumer. As we move towards a "global mean wage", the consumer will have much less disposable income. She will be spending her income for high food and electric bills with little left over for personal travel.

Towards the end of the Q&A, a guy with an Indian accent asked him how the US was going to force China to conform to CO2 reduction if the US was then only a minor trading partner. He waffled around and did NOT provide a usable answer to the question. The truth is that, if the Asians are trading amongst themselves, our CO2 demands can be ignored. Of course,,,, Asia has LOT of people living on low-lying ground.
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Post by littleflower » Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:15 pm

dr.placebo wrote:I just ran a quick scan from this discussion, and I don't find any cites from me of either the Nation or from the DNC, neither of which I would trust all that much on climate change.
my bad, i didn't realize that this remark
In other words, if you get some fish wrapped in a copy of the Telegraph you should throw out the fish, just to be safe.
referred only to the telegraph's position on climate change. :D

seriously, doc, you're very quick to criticize any conservative source, and you have referenced the nation and the DNC in posts before, probably in other threads, but still. i have been holding that in for a long time.

in any case, i find that our sources, and who and what we trust, have much to do with many influences ... and none is sacrosanct. but i do try to be very cautious about completely disregarding any, especially if they are read by a lot of people. the argument is, after all, the important thing... and expecting everyone to agree is silly. we never, ever will!!

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Post by can't sit still » Tue Jan 19, 2010 7:07 pm

" and expecting everyone to agree is silly. we never, ever will!!"
YOU'RE COMPLETELY WRONG. I DON'T AGREE WITH YOU. :? No,, wait a minute. ....
What was the question again? :lol:
Copernicus, et al proved that any commonly held belief can still be wrong. My argument with global warmers is that they don't have enough data. They don't consider enough influences. One can't possibly consider Terran weather with considering the weather of Sol. One can't possibly consider the weather of Sol without considering the external influences to that weather. It's a very new science and the vast majority of climatologists just ignore it. Nobody has proved "anthropogenic" to my satisfaction.

"Incidentally, that is not quite enough energy to stop us from freezing. The average temperature on
the earth's surface would be about -20 deg C (as it is on the moon) if it were not for the
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere -- mainly water and carbon dioxide -- keeping us a bit
warmer. The average surface temperature on earth is about +15 deg C."
"The sun’s energy reaching the earth surface is 15,000 times more than our energy demanded. In each fully sunlit hour, about 1kW of power is available to each m2 of surface.
Before reaching the earth surface, about 30% of the 177x1012 kW is reflected back to outer-space. 47% out of the 70% reaching the earth converts to heat. It keeps our earth warm. The rest absorbs by water.
In the environment, about 0.2% of the energy transforms and carries by winds and currents, while photosynthesis absorbs about 0.02%. "

177 X 10 to the 12th power [Kw] reaches the earth. It's been clearly proved that the "solar Constant" is NOT constant. Take 177 x 10 to the 12th and add some variations.
NOW, tell me that it is anthropogenic.
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Post by dr.placebo » Tue Jan 19, 2010 7:14 pm

Frankly, I don't think very highly of the press in terms of accuracy or objectivity these days. The reporting of the New York Times, for example, just keeps sliding downhill, and that's one of the best papers. The reporting of the Wall Street Journal is now entirely suspect, not because of its conservative bias (that has always been there) but because of its disregard for truth. So if I slam the Telegraph for its climate reporting I assure you that its not because of its conservative bent, but because "fair and balanced" is now a misleading trademark rather than a journalistic ideal.

Any paper can and should have its editorial section, and an op-ed page, and even run special features with an agenda. That is the right of the publisher and the editorial department. Opinion is expected to be biased, and I don't think that the paper has to agree with me.

The article cited about the Himalayan glaciers was not even the most egregious. It kept largely to the facts and avoided character attacks, unlike the Telegraph article about James Hansen. But by avoiding mentioning that other data indicates a general shrinking of the Himalayan glaciers, and of glaciers worldwide, there is the not-so-subtle implication that any glacier data reported by the IPCC is untrue. This implication is, IMHO, systemic, deliberate and misleading, and it places the Telegraph on my list of unreliable sources.

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Post by littleflower » Tue Jan 19, 2010 7:54 pm

dr.placebo wrote: This implication is, IMHO, systemic, deliberate and misleading, and it places the Telegraph on my list of unreliable sources.
i have no doubt that your list of unreliable sources would include just about everything most of my conservative friends consider to be reliable ... and your reliable sources would all be on their list of unreliable.

that's the joke of it all.

and Doc P, your education, while excellent (i know, MIT grad), is not more impressive than that of some of my conservative friends. if you think that everyone who vehemently disagrees with you is somehow ignorant or stupid or greedy or evil or uncaring, guess again. that's just the easy way out. and one that i often wish i could take. one gets sick of being torn by ideology.

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Post by can't sit still » Tue Jan 19, 2010 8:25 pm

My sister has a masters degree from Berkely. I had 20 minutes in a community college. That was enough to convince me that nothing there could hold my attention. Both of us can read a book and absorb an equal amount of information. The lack of a structured guidance from a formal education has not stopped me from absorbing and utilizing whatever information I needed for whatever endeavor I undertook.

I did miss out though on the snobbish conviction that everything that i knew was unquestionably accurate. I'm absolutely convinced of very few things. I rarely feel the need to pass a final judgment. Most things are an open question and a developing process. No inputs are totally without value.

My dismal lack of education hasn't prevented me from learning other languages,,, pursuing several careers, traveling the world and making a fair bit of money. It has however, prevented me from assuming a rigid outlook at new or contested information. I have no alma mater to anchor me to outdated processes or information. :cry:
:lol:
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Post by littleflower » Tue Jan 19, 2010 9:09 pm

CSS ... my comment had nothing to do with education ... something that never, ever ends in anyone with any wisdom.

it's just that i am so sick of liberals who mindlessly dismiss conservatives, and conservative sources, as stupid, or ignorant, or evil, or greedy, or uncaring.

and yes, i get sick of conservatives too.

i just wish i could find more civil arguments and respectful disagreements.

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Post by ygmir » Tue Jan 19, 2010 9:29 pm

LF:

Image
YGMIR

Unabashed Nordic
Pagan

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Post by dr.placebo » Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:06 pm

LF, I generally try to avoid stating my background because I don't think that it grants any particular authority. One has to work at it. And in this particular debate I think that what we attempt is an honest approach to interpreting some noisy data.

CSS brings forth a reasonable objection to AGW, that the data are insufficient. For the moment, let's assume that GW has been observed, and that it is significant. The question that CSS raises is whether there is sufficient excess GHG due to human activity to have a significant (and eventually harmful) effect on the global average temperature. CSS takes the position that there is insufficient proof.

The brief outline of the main AGW argument is that (1) we observe a significant global warming using a large number of modes, (2) we observe a CO2 level that is rising rapidly and is unmatched for millions of years, (3) we observe a rapid, but not quite so rapid CH4 increase, (4) we know that CO2 and CH4 are significant greenhouse gases, (5) we observe via satellite that there is reduced infrared coming out of the atmosphere on the top in exactly the spectra expected for GHG, (6) we observe increased infrared coming from the atmosphere to the ground in those same wavelengths.

If you don't accept the gist of the measurements then we probably don't have a place to meet. We don't have to agree about the exact numbers, but the directions and approximate magnitudes are consistent across a variety of independent data sets.

That still leaves open the possibility that there is a significant increased natural CO2 source or decreased natural CO2 sink.

There are two other sets of evidence that suggest human sources for CO2. One is that the rate of CO2 rise is far more rapid than in the past 600K years (based on ice core data). The other is that isotope ratios (C13/C12) strongly suggest fossil fuel origins for the rise in CO2.

Now we come to the judgment call. Is there enough evidence to prove that humans are a primary cause of global warming? I think that reasonable people can differ on this last call, although I clearly think that the evidence is sufficient.

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Post by geekster » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:27 pm

[quote]Perhaps the key point discovered by Smith was that by 1990, NOAA had deleted from its datasets all but 1,500 of the 6,000 thermometers in service around the globe.
Now, 75% represents quite a drop in sampling population, particularly considering that these stations provide the readings used to compile both the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) datasets. These are the same datasets, incidentally, which serve as primary sources of temperature data not only for climate researchers and universities worldwide, but also for the many international agencies using the data to create analytical temperature anomaly maps and charts.

Yet as disturbing as the number of dropped stations was, it is the nature of NOAA’s “selection biasâ€
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Post by geekster » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:36 pm

The simple analogy below explains exactly how this fraud is perpetrated:

Take 10 people in a room. Measure their height. Produce an average.

Have all but the three tallest people leave the room.

Measure the height of the remaining 30%, produce the average, and declare that human beings are growing at an astronomical rate.

That is EXACTLY what they have done with the GHCN.
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Post by dr.placebo » Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:53 pm

So why do the different global data sets show the same temperature trend?

Multiple synchronized fraud?

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Post by can't sit still » Fri Jan 22, 2010 7:07 pm

Yes, it's anthropoooooogneic.
"Excerpt: All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously"
This quote is from my first post when I stated this thread. Is this info no longer relevant,,, no longer accurate?
BTW, good summary Dr Placebo.
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Jan 22, 2010 9:14 pm

This is the only thread that comes to mind for weather news. Reportedly the weather service is calling for extreme weather in California. The Sierras are going to get a pounding. YGMIR, you need to put out blizzard ropes. :lol:
http://www.metagrrrl.com/metagrrrl/2010 ... oming.html
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Post by bm_cricket » Fri Jan 22, 2010 10:14 pm

ygmir wrote:
Ugly Dougly wrote:
can't sit still wrote:One side of the plateau has ice receding,, the other side has ice advancing. It;s climate change,,, not overall warming. Just changing weather patterns.
The scientists that I know call it "Climate Change" - the journalists call it "Global Warming". :?
a grand example of "headline" as opposed to "accurate information".........
http://www.phdcomics.com/comics.php?f=1174

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Post by can't sit still » Wed Jan 27, 2010 5:13 pm

I got this in mail. It has some interesting numbers concerning radiant heat versus trapped heat. It may not be an answer but, it has some interesting numbers.

DIY ocean heating

by Mark Imisides

December 7, 2009

Scarcely a day goes by without us being warned of coastal inundation by rising
seas due to global warming.

Carbon dioxide, we are told, traps heat that has been irradiated by the oceans,
and this warms the oceans and melts the polar ice caps. While this seems a plausible proposition at first glance, when one actually examines it closely a major flaw emerges

In a nutshell, water takes a lot of energy to heat up, and air doesn’t contain much.
In fact, on a volume/volume basis, the ratio of heat capacities is about 3300 to 1.
This means that to heat 1 litre of water by 1ËšC it would take 3300 litres of air that
was 2ËšC hotter, or 1 litre of air that was about 3300ËšC hotter!

This shouldn’t surprise anyone. If you ran a cold bath and then tried
to heat it by putting a dozen heaters in the room, does anyone believe
that the water would ever get hot?

The problem gets even stickier when you consider the size of the ocean. Basically,
there is too much water and not enough air.

The ocean contains a colossal 1,500,000,000,000,000,000,000 litres of water!
To heat it, even by a small amount, takes a staggering amount of energy. To heat
it by a mere 1ËšC, for example, an astonishing 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
joules of energy are required.

Let’s put this amount of energy in perspective. If we all turned off all our appliances
and went and lived in caves, and then devoted every coal, nuclear, gas, hydro, wind
and solar power plant to just heating the ocean, it would take a breathtaking 32,000
years to heat the ocean by just this 1ËšC!

In short, our influence on our climate, even if we really tried, is miniscule!

So it makes sense to ask the question – if the ocean were to be heated by greenhouse
warming of the atmosphere, how hot would the air have to get? If the entire ocean
is heated by 1ËšC, how much would the air have to be heated by to contain enough
heat to do the job?

Well, unfortunately for every ton of water there is only a kilogram of air.
Taking into account the relative heat capacities and absolute masses, we
arrive at the astonishing figure of 4,000ËšC.

That is, if we wanted to heat the entire ocean by 1ËšC, and wanted to do it by
heating the air above it, we’d have to heat the air to about 4,000˚C hotter than
the water.

And another problem is that air sits on top of water – how would hot air heat
deep into the ocean? Even if the surface warmed, the warm water would just sit
on top of the cold water. Thus, if the ocean were being heated by greenhouse heating
of the air, we would see a system with enormous thermal lag – for the ocean to be
only slightly warmer, the land would have to be substantially warmer, and the air
much, much warmer (to create the temperature gradient that would facilitate the
transfer of heat from the air to the water).

Therefore any measurable warmth in the ocean would be accompanied by a huge
and obvious anomaly in the air temperatures, and we would not have to bother
looking at ocean temperatures at all. So if the air doesn’t contain enough energy
to heat the oceans or melt the ice caps, what does?

The earth is tilted on its axis, and this gives us our seasons. When the southern
hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, we have more direct sunlight and more of
it (longer days). When it is tilted away from the sun, we have less direct sunlight
and less of it (shorter days). The direct result of this is that in summer it is hot
and in winter it is cold. In winter we run the heaters in our cars, and in summer
the air conditioners. In winter the polar caps freeze over and in summer 60-70%
of them melt (about ten million square kilometers). In summer the water is warmer
and winter it is cooler (ask any surfer).

All of these changes are directly determined by the amount of sunlight
that we get.

When the clouds clear and bathe us in sunlight, we don’t take off our jumper because
of greenhouse heating of the atmosphere, but because of the direct heat caused by the
sunlight on our body.

The sun’s influence is direct, obvious, and instantaneous.
If the enormous influence of the sun on our climate is so
obvious, then, by what act of madness do we look at a variation
of a fraction of a percent in any of these variables, and not look
to the sun as the cause?

Why on earth (pun intended) do we attribute any heating of the
oceans to carbon dioxide, when there is a far more obvious culprit, and
when such a straightforward examination of the thermodynamics render
it impossible.

Mark Imisides is an industrial chemist working in the private sector.

He makes some interesting points. I already mentioned that the sun hits us with 117 X 10 ex15 watts of energy. His numbers give another aspect.
Dan
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:36 pm

Now, both Russia and Canada are complaining that GOV refuses to use temperature data from their colder areas. "they" were incorporating data from 600 Canadian stations,,, now , only 45. Canada has over 100 stations above the arctic circle. NOAA only uses the data from ONE station. The warmest one they could find. Hey, nothing obvious about that. Just toss out all the cold stations that you used for your baseline and ,,,voila, the mean temp goes up. Just don't let a third grader look at the original data.
If you look at the amount of BULLSHIT and lies in data acquisition, you HAVE to suspect the conclusion.
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I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

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dr.placebo
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Post by dr.placebo » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:11 am

Yes, the ocean is really big.

Did you ever notice that on a warm summer day, when swimming in a lake, that a shallow layer on the top is nice and warm and farther down it's really cold?

That's because the lake water does not mix well, and despite waves and currents and such the ocean also does not mix well. That's why surface water in the tropics is warm and in the arctic it's cold.

In other words, it takes a really long time to heat the ocean, but not so long to heat the top few meters, and that's the part that is in contact with the air.

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ygmir
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Post by ygmir » Thu Jan 28, 2010 6:52 am

I didn't know ocean water doesn't mix........interesting.
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