Population estimates

David M · Post by **David M** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:24 pm

I enjoyed the population decline last year. Any guesses on the what the attendance will be this year?

theCryptofishist · Post by **theCryptofishist** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:26 pm

The economy's still tough, so many will not be able to afford it. HOwever, many who didn't go last year may go because it's been too long for them. I'm expecting about the same, but have no real insight.

Token · Post by **Token** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:56 pm

Once the first three tiers sell out, that's a minimum of 35k.

Anything else is just gravy.

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 3:45 pm

Token wrote:Once the first three tiers sell out, that's a minimum of 35k.

Anything else is just gravy.

Edit: Yes, they have.

http://tickets.burningman.com/

I'm gonna guess.. 42k.

The economy isn't perfect, but the fear of last year isn't quite as bad.. and yeah.. many that didn't go last year will come this year, and there is a huge growth explosion of people getting off their arses and finally doing it. No less than 40k, no more than 45k. You heard it here first.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:38 pm

junglesmacks wrote:
Token wrote:Once the first three tiers sell out, that's a minimum of 35k.

Anything else is just gravy.

Edit: Yes, they have.

http://tickets.burningman.com/

I'm gonna guess.. 42k.

The economy isn't perfect, but the fear of last year isn't quite as bad.. and yeah.. many that didn't go last year will come this year, and there is a huge growth explosion of people getting off their arses and finally doing it. No less than 40k, no more than 45k. You heard it here first.

damn it, I was gonna guess that.

Clar-i-ty · Post by **Clar-i-ty** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:06 pm

Did we ever get a final # last year? I must say, I really enjoyed a mellower playa last year. Not as many obnoxious idgits. I almost missed them...almost.

geospyder · Post by **geospyder** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:12 pm

Based on this site - 43,435

http://awesome.good.is.s3.amazonaws.com ... /flat.html

Rice · Post by **Rice** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:17 pm

The BLM permit looks like the maximum population allowed has been set at 50K... So, my random & mostly arbitrary guess will be 49500.

Anyone know what the 09 count was??

Rice

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:19 pm

geospyder wrote:Based on this site - 43,435

http://awesome.good.is.s3.amazonaws.com ... /flat.html

A steady increase in mental health and alcohol related issues. Where's Papa Smurf and his silo when you need him..

Token · Post by **Token** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 7:07 pm

Its all published in the afterburn report.

2007 was the peak year due to the extra hippie mob.

some seeing eye · Post by **some seeing eye** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 8:25 pm

I would guess similar to last year. You do know that all the published population counts are bogus, don't you? Just how it is.

shiznicks1 · Post by **shiznicks1** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:30 pm

Last year was smaller compared to most? It was my first burn and I was blown away at how many people were there! I wish I would have been able to participate in 07. Im looking forward to the Sunday-Thursday population, dont really care how many, I just like the vibe before the weekend hits.

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 5:15 pm

ygmir wrote:
junglesmacks wrote:
Token wrote:Once the first three tiers sell out, that's a minimum of 35k.

Anything else is just gravy.

Edit: Yes, they have.

http://tickets.burningman.com/

I'm gonna guess.. 42k.

The economy isn't perfect, but the fear of last year isn't quite as bad.. and yeah.. many that didn't go last year will come this year, and there is a huge growth explosion of people getting off their arses and finally doing it. No less than 40k, no more than 45k. You heard it here first.
damn it, I was gonna guess that.

I'm revising actually after getting the figure from last year of 43,435.

Just for reference, the numbers for the last 5 years are:

2004 - 35,664
2005 - 35,567
2006 - 38,989
2007 - 47,366
2008 - 49,599
2009 - 43,435

I'm going to say.. that given the slight uptick on the economy from last year, plus the growth in popularity of the event.. yet slightly negated by economic times..

2010 - 46,897

Playa Foot · Post by **Playa Foot** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 7:39 pm

Forty one thousand six hundred eighty eight

Post by **AntiM** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:47 am

2008 was such a sucky year dust and paya-wise, I think a lot of newbs never returned. We had folks in Hushville bail out in Tuesday.

This year, I have never seen so many enthusiastic newbs on eplaya. Are there more newbs, better quality, or is the eplaya actualy useful now? All three?

lucky420 · Post by **lucky420** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 12:14 pm

eplaya has been extremely useful to me. I love all the help & info here (stuff the survival guide doesn't quite cover) and the snark keeps me laughing. Thanks so much to you Anti M and the other mods for keeping this site up and running

VeganChoirGirl · Post by **VeganChoirGirl** » Fri Aug 20, 2010 1:21 pm

AntiM wrote:2008 was such a sucky year dust and paya-wise, I think a lot of newbs never returned. We had folks in Hushville bail out in Tuesday.

This year, I have never seen so many enthusiastic newbs on eplaya. Are there more newbs, better quality, or is the eplaya actualy useful now? All three?

My birgin year eplaya was very helpful. I met a group to camp with, made some friends in the local area, formed a packing list, found a performance venue, and got me thinking about how I could give back to the community.

I think it's only not helpful to those with a really thin skin. But who knows??

I look back at some of my own posts and think...how did ANYONE ever take me seriously when I first arrived. Oh well. They did. And I am thanful for it.

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:52 am

How could anyone not take seriously someone named VeganChoirGirl?

shroom · Post by **shroom** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:18 am

lucky420 wrote:eplaya has been extremely useful to me. I love all the help & info here (stuff the survival guide doesn't quite cover) and the snark keeps me laughing. Thanks so much to you Anti M and the other mods for keeping this site up and running

Same here. I'm a very excited and very informed newb!

bluesbob · Post by **bluesbob** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:28 am

AntiM wrote:2008 was such a sucky year dust and paya-wise, I think a lot of newbs never returned. We had folks in Hushville bail out in Tuesday.

This year, I have never seen so many enthusiastic newbs on eplaya. Are there more newbs, better quality, or is the eplaya actualy useful now? All three?

We're drunker.

robotland · Post by **robotland** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:46 am

gyre wrote:How could anyone not take seriously someone named VeganChoirGirl?

Be You Not Deceived...she has the military might of Apokiliptika behind her!

CapSmashy · Post by **CapSmashy** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:50 am

robotland wrote:
gyre wrote:How could anyone not take seriously someone named VeganChoirGirl?
Be You Not Deceived...she has the military might of Apokiliptika behind her!

And the cut throat psychopaths at Raiders guarding her 6.

Gage · Post by **Gage** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:52 am

VeganChoirGirl wrote:
AntiM wrote:2008 was such a sucky year dust and paya-wise, I think a lot of newbs never returned. We had folks in Hushville bail out in Tuesday.

This year, I have never seen so many enthusiastic newbs on eplaya. Are there more newbs, better quality, or is the eplaya actualy useful now? All three?
My birgin year eplaya was very helpful. I met a group to camp with, made some friends in the local area, formed a packing list, found a performance venue, and got me thinking about how I could give back to the community.

I think it's only not helpful to those with a really thin skin. But who knows??

I look back at some of my own posts and think...how did ANYONE ever take me seriously when I first arrived. Oh well. They did. And I am thanful for it.

So true. We planned and prepped for 5 months due to the great info on here, then had an amazing time, and of course counldn't find ANYONE we met prior to the burn through ePlaya or Tribes until Burn night...

I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 49,995 this year, because the mass media advertising of the event has increased dramtically through youtube, flickr, multiple tv show specials, facebook/twitter presence, the musical community, attendee word of mouth, etc. I know a lot of 1st timers going this year...

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:28 am

GageNdG wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 49,995 this year, because the mass media advertising of the event has increased dramtically through youtube, flickr, multiple tv show specials, facebook/twitter presence, the musical community, attendee word of mouth, etc. I know a lot of 1st timers going this year...

I agree.. there seems to be a serious gravitational pull this year. I know tons and tons of first timers.. including me. Lots of people that may be technically burgins, but not necessarily to the world of gatherings and/or this lifestyle. It's like.. I've been meaning/trying to go for 6-8 years now, and every summer something gets in the way. This year finally I cleared the agenda way in advance and said come hell or high water, I'm going. I know many people that are doing and have done the same. We could quite possibly reach sellout levels..

BurningRando · Post by **BurningRando** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:28 am

When the permit was inked five years ago there was a population growth stipulation of 5% per annum. The original 50K is now 60K if it ever comes to that, being that this is the fifth and final year of the contract.

Trust me, BM will never sell out. The bigger the crowd, the bigger the check for the BLM and LEO cost recovery.

SnowBlind · Post by **SnowBlind** » Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:32 pm

BurningRando wrote:When the permit was inked five years ago there was a population growth stipulation of 5% per annum. The original 50K is now 60K if it ever comes to that, being that this is the fifth and final year of the contract.

I tried to find the permit online, but the original link doesn't work anymore. Looks like the BLM has cleaned up their site.

But if my memory serves, then it was a 5% annual increase, but no more than 50.000 total. Not increasing the 50k number every year. Of course we blew way past the 5% in 2007 anyway. So as far as I know, the 50k cap still stands.

junglesmacks · Post by **junglesmacks** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:58 pm

Word is that we beat 50k this year..

http://blog.burningman.com/eventshappen ... e-the-man/

TomServo · Post by **TomServo** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:31 pm

junglesmacks wrote:Word is that we beat 50k this year..

http://blog.burningman.com/eventshappen ... e-the-man/

50,503 I think....was the BLM report.

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:53 pm

You do know that all the published population counts are bogus, don't you? Just how it is.

You do know that making such a blanket statement entitles myself (and others) to requests a cite or two regarding your statement.

Don't you? Sorry, that's just how it is.

ibdave · Post by **ibdave** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:02 pm

51,515 according to this..

http://www.rgj.com/article/20100905/EVENTS04/100904022