Playa Weather

dragonpilot · Post by **dragonpilot** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:38 pm

Is this for real? Look at the forecast high temps!

http://www.playaweather.info/

gaminwench · Post by **gaminwench** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:42 pm

Looks like it might be chilly!

Long Johns, check!

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:49 pm

90ish and dry.

geospyder · Post by **geospyder** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:52 pm

Chilly is OK but rain is another story - expecially on the entry day. That would be one huge stucky mess.

BurningRando · Post by **BurningRando** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:56 pm

Acuweather also has 38 for Sunday night.

Last time we swung from a strong el niÃ±o into a strong la niÃ±a was 1999 and it was cold and wet.

ENSO is ~ a 10 - 12 year cycle, so we are right on schedule.

Just_Joe · Post by **Just_Joe** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 5:27 pm

dragonpilot wrote:Is this for real? Look at the forecast high temps!

http://www.playaweather.info/

It's for real. It's my site.

Accuracy is open to interpretation, however.....
As Token pointed out, the "curent conditoins" are actually for Lovelock, but the general forecast should be fairly close.

A cool front is definitely on it's way this weekend.
As with most frontal passages, a chance of rain is there but I wouldn't get to worried about it....yet.

For anyone interested, I'll be posting forecasts, hi/low temps and winds.
http://eplaya.burningman.org/viewtopic. ... ght=chilly

dragonpilot · Post by **dragonpilot** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:38 pm

Weatherman! Out-fricking-standing website!!

*hoists one for the Weatherman*

hollywallydoodle · Post by **hollywallydoodle** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:52 pm

omg omg omg. i would sure love to see it rain on the playa!

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs 67 to 77. Lows 42 to 52. Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs 67 to 77. Lows 42 to 52. Monday...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs 71 to 81.

even if it is a giant sticky mess.

Token · Post by **Token** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 7:58 pm

It ain't that much fun when you have 50 pound 8 inch Playa Mud(tm) platform shoes just going to the JOTS.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:09 pm

A cool front is definitely on it's way this weekend.

And my experience on the playa is that it gets windy as FUCK when that front passes through. So if you are getting shit put together, try to get it together enough that it won't be blown apart (wow, what a name for a camp ... Napoleon Blown Apart ... but I digress).

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:14 pm

I checked about 5 weather sites today, and "Accuweather" is the only one claiming it will be a low of 38Â° on Monday. ALL of the other sites had lows in the 50s--not even 40s. I say "Accuweather" because we were camping a couple of weeks ago when 5" of rain fell in 2 hours and the whole campground flooded. "Accuweather's" report was rain EVERY hour for the entire rest of the day, so we didn't put our stuff out to dry when it let up. WRONG! Once the rain stopped, it didn't rain again at all that day. So, I don't trust Accuweather. Yesterday, the only weather that was accurate for our town was Weather Underground. They only go out 5 days, so who knows what they'll say about the Playa next week. I'm going to check on Thursday night before we leave.

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:18 pm

I checked about 5 weather sites today, and "Accuweather" is the only one claiming it will be a low of 38Â° on Monday. ALL of the other sites had lows in the 50s--not even 40s. I say "Accuweather" because we were camping a couple of weeks ago when 5" of rain fell in 2 hours and the whole campground flooded. "Accuweather's" report was rain EVERY hour for the entire rest of the day, so we didn't put our stuff out to dry when it let up. WRONG! Once the rain stopped, it didn't rain again at all that day. So, I don't trust Accuweather. Yesterday, the only weather that was accurate for our town was Weather Underground. They only go out 5 days, so who knows what they'll say about the Playa next week. I'm going to check on Thursday night before we leave.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:25 pm

Weather Channel is calling for the same front in Reno. Reno is generally a good bit warmer than the playa at night, so is Winnemucca and Lovelock. The daytime highs are about the same but the playa is cooler because there is no "urban heat island" and the cool air sinks down onto the playa at night from the surrounding hills.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNV0076

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:28 pm

They all agree that a cool front is coming through. But only "Accuweather" has the lows as low as 38. ALL of the rest that go out that far are higher.

geospyder · Post by **geospyder** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:34 pm

Here is the ten day Weather.com for Gerlach http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNV0033

Rain (if it rains) can make a real stucky mess on Monday with all the in coming vehicles.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:38 pm

Bling wrote:They all agree that a cool front is coming through. But only "Accuweather" has the lows as low as 38. ALL of the rest that go out that far are higher.

Because most of those forecasts are for urban areas. Accuweather is probably closer to correct for the playa.

I have *often* seen it down in the 30's on the playa during the event. That is not rare at all. It might get even colder than forecast, who knows. It really depends on the wind. If it is cloudy and windy all day and then clears out and gets calm that night, temperatures can get down into the freezing-ass colds.

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:40 pm

I'm not disputing that it gets down to the 30s--just that I don't trust "Accuweather." If they can't tell whether or not it will RAIN (in an "urban" area), how on earth will they know the highs and lows 10 days out?

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:50 pm

Well, nobody's temperature forecasts are that good 10 days out but they are generally pretty good for 5 or so. That is why the forecasts change from day to do. What is forecast for 10 days from now might be completely different from what the forecast is for the same day 5 days from now. A system might stall, it might not develop as the models forecast it would, etc. That is why they can't issue hurricane warnings 5 days in advance. The storm might be 100 miles from where they thought it would be 5 days from now.

I read the forecast like this:

There is a good PROBABILITY that it will get very windy, possibly rainy, and then probably cold going into this weekend (not burn weekend, pre-event weekend) so I am going to be prepared for it and if it doesn't come to pass, no skin off my ass. But if I "don't believe it" and do nothing and that wind comes up and blows my shit to Winnemucca even though I knew it might be coming, then I am a dumbass.

It is just meant to give you an idea of what MIGHT happen, no weather forecast is going to ever tell you what IS going to happen at the place where you are physically located. "scattered showers all day" will mean that you might only get one of them.

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:55 pm

I want to be a weather person, and make tons of $$$ to be WRONG all the time.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:59 pm

Bling wrote:I want to be a weather person, and make tons of $$$ to be WRONG all the time.

That sounds more like the role of economist.

Google economy+unexpected returns about 14,800,000 hits.

Token · Post by **Token** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:00 pm

Wunderground is no good for Gerlach anymore.

The MADIS station on the water tower went down for a few months before being partially restored. Data from it is no longer being used until it gets fixed and emails get sent.

Wunderground used data from either Alturas, Lovelock or the two mountain peak stations Fox mountain and one other I can't remember.

Point is, its all extrapolated data by NOAA, Wunderground, AccuWeather, Weather Channel etc. , until the MADIS data once again is complete from the Gerlach PWS.

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:04 pm

geekster wrote:
Bling wrote:I want to be a weather person, and make tons of $$$ to be WRONG all the time.
That sounds more like the role of economist.

True! So many choices, so little time...

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:05 pm

Token wrote:Wunderground is no good for Gerlach anymore.

The MADIS station on the water tower went down for a few months before being partially restored. Data from it is no longer being used until it gets fixed and emails get sent.

Wunderground used data from either Alturas, Lovelock or the two mountain peak stations Fox mountain and one other I can't remember.

Point is, its all extrapolated data by NOAA, Wunderground, AccuWeather, Weather Channel etc. , until the MADIS data once again is complete from the Gerlach PWS.

So, whose weather is likely to come the closest?

Token · Post by **Token** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:12 pm

If there are PWS or MADIS stations close by, Wunderground is great.

If not:

NOAA for 3-5 day extrapolation.

AccuWeather for 15 day if you are farming and like their long term averages based extended forecast.

Everyone else I know of is geared off of the NOAA feed and usually geared to urban centers.

This all of course is my amateur opinion. Not a trained meteorologist just a hobbyist thats good with numbers.

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:13 pm

What's NOAA?

Token · Post by **Token** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:21 pm

National
Oceanic
and
Atmospheric
Administration

or

Http://www.weather.gov

Bling · Post by **Bling** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:25 pm

Thanks, Token!

Just_Joe · Post by **Just_Joe** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:07 pm

Token wrote: Everyone else I know of is geared off of the NOAA feed

Yup. Their satellites, radars and observations are the basis of almost every forecast you'll find.
Here is NOAA's point forecast for the playa:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

Token · Post by **Token** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:55 pm

And most importantly, since the Playa is a guestimate area, the text if the forecast:

BIG WEATHER CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEST COAST TROUGH...WITH 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES BETWEEN -2 AND
-3 OVER PORTIONS OF CA/NV BY SUNDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS IN THE CORE OF THE LOW BETWEEN 0C AND -2C AS IT TRACKS
OVER NWRN NV AND NERN CA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE REGION. COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE AS THIS EVENT IS
STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. IF SCATTERED SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...THEN
TEMPERATURES IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
60S. DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE WITH TIME...BUTÂ CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY/MONDAY

And yes, they always shout.

So, Sun/Mon we freeze our buns off.

We may warm up later in the week but no way to tell at this point.

Clar-i-ty · Post by **Clar-i-ty** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 11:04 pm

Looks like Monday is gonna be some fun.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNV0033

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