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Post by can't sit still » Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:41 pm

This is a very interesting paper. The conventional wisdom says that people are voluntarily cutting back on purchases. Consumer credit has declined by $ 610 billion. The paper shows good proof that $ 20 billion of this was voluntary. The other $ 590 billion ,,,
"US consumers spend, spend, spend themselves into oblivion only to be cut off cold turkey"
"they accelerate spending until the charge off threshold at the lender is breached, and all credit is cut off"
My,my,my,,, the banks offered credit irresponsibly,,, people respond by using it irresponsibly. The people walk away without a FICO and the banks take it in the shorts.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debunk ... imper-bang

The new MERS court decisions could really stick it to the banks;
http://4closurefraud.org/2010/09/13/bre ... ure-proof/
Reportedly, the debt to asset ratio of the major banks is 5 times worse than it was when Lehman collapsed. With all the MERS activity,, the flood of BKs, jingle mail and credit card defaults, the banks are going to have a bit of a cash flow problem. :twisted:
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Let's All Go Christmas Shopping...

Post by Rabbi Dali Rick » Wed Sep 22, 2010 6:21 pm

Yeah but the good news is that Christmas is only 90 days away. Maybe Jesus can save us...


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Post by can't sit still » Wed Sep 22, 2010 7:31 pm

Rick, good to hear from you. Jesus can save your soul alright. BUT, he said that "the meek shall inherit the earth" He forgot to mention that he meant " 6 feet of earth". :? :lol:
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Post by geekster » Fri Sep 24, 2010 2:48 pm

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $2.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $191.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. Down three of the last four months, this decrease followed a 0.7 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $5.3 billion or 10.3 percent to $46.6 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $3.6 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $197.9 billion. This followed a 2.5 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.1 billion or 5.9 percent to $49.5 billion.
This is going to get even worse toward the end of the year. Items such as airplanes and airplane parts have a long lead time. The tax rules change on Jan 1. Organizations are pushing as many purchases as possible into this year in order to take advantage of more favorable tax treatment. Congress has decided not to vote on extension of tax cuts until after the November elections.

So from this point on, the only thing anyone is going to order that has a three month or longer lead time is what they absolutely need. The wheels will really start falling off the cart in the middle of October. As we get closer to the end of the year, more goods wish shorter lead times will begin to feel the pinch. Apartment complexes will stop buying washing machines, for example, having bought what they figure they will need for the next few years already.

The sad thing is that the average person isn't going to figure out how badly they have been hit until April 15, 2012 when they have to pay taxes for 2011. Tens of thousands of the poor that had to pay no income tax in 2011 will have to fork over taxes in 2012.
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Sep 24, 2010 7:09 pm

"The wheels will really start falling off the cart"
No problem. We'll just continue on skids. The shuttle lands on a skid.
There is MUCH talk of deflation and inflation. There is also dis-inflation and hyper inflation.
We already know that we have currency inflation. So, we can just talk about price inflation.

GOV wants general inflation to reduce the pain of paying back the debt. GOV has not had much luck causing general price inflation. They are having a hard time trying to inject money into the economy.
The way to take the pain out of repaying the debt is to cause WAGE AND price inflation. If they just cause price inflation, there is no increase in circulated money. No tax increase. GOV is causing some inflation but, it is being offset by diminishing purchasing power. The falling velocity of money is having the same effect as a reduction in the quantity of money.

GOV / banks pushed us to use our future wages for todays goods. It's obvious that this could not go on forever. TODAY seems to be the tomorrow that we were worried about yesterday. The banks have taken all the money that the depositors entrusted them with. They gambled and lost. WE ponied up about $ 14 trillion but, there are losses above $ 600 trillion.

As investors lose confidence in paper, they try to run to tangibles. They're SOL. They can never invest a few hundred $ trillion into tangibles.
Theoretically, they could bid everything up to 50 times it's current price. That would starve a billion people and lock the economy up as tight as an ice-age.

We've already seen stock buyers run for the exits. If bond holders decide to do the same, it will be all over with. We have to cough up about $ 1.5 trillion a year to repay bonds. If they're not rolled over, we have to cough up interest AND principle.

Job # 1 in GOV is to prevent a panic. If we go into deflation, where most stuff loses value and/or has a lower price, It makes sense to be in cash. Cash gains value in a deflation [purchasing power]. Argentina is a good example of what happens to bank accounts. If everyone here tried to hold paper money, it would be all gone in a few hours. Banks / GOV are desperately trying to limit cash withdrawals.

Everyone expects the markets to get spooked eventually. Nobody knows how or when.
Most seem to bet on the second quarter of 2011.
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:37 pm

Y'all know that SS was predicted to run out of money in 20--30 years. Then,it hit sooner,,, much sooner. The Congressional Budget Office said that debt service would take 100 % of the GDP in a "few " years.
"A tipping point is reached when the government debt exceeds 90% of GDP. US government debt is currently at 93% of GDP. One year from now it will exceed 100% of GDP."
When you say it like that, It really does NOT seem very far off.
http://theburningplatform.com/blog/2010 ... l-bubbles/
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Post by geekster » Sat Sep 25, 2010 3:05 pm

Be careful, CSS, in using numbers that have emotional appeal but aren't really an argument of logic.

Lets say you make $100K a year and just bought a $200K house. Your debt is 200% of your "product". But it is manageable because you can handle the monthly payments. Same with government. The difference between a government and a person is that a person eventually retires so they must at some point pay off their debt. A government can simply take out a 30-year interest only loan (which is what a 30 bond is) and roll it over when it comes due. As long as government can make the interest payments, it is fine. Also, the federal government, if it doesn't have the money, can simply print more. States and people can't do that.

The REAL problem with social security is that the way the law was written, all of the excess social security tax collected HAD to be given to the treasury in exchange for what amount to "bearer bonds". Congress then spent the money leaving Social Security holding IOUs for that money.

Now when Social Security runs a deficit, they must take one of those IOU's and present it to Treasury for payment. But the Treasury has no surplus, it is broke, it lives off borrowed money. When Social Security presents, say, a $100 million IOU for payment, that $100 million goes directly to the deficit. The Treasury must borrow using Treasury bonds to pay the Social Security bond. They must pay one IOU by letting another IOU. This additional borrowing by the Treasury means that it must attract more buyers for its securities. The way that is done is by either increasing interest rates or by the Fed buying the bonds (printing money).

We can't increase rates right now without triggering another wave or mortgage defaults so the Fed has decided to buy treasuries (printing money). So basically we have the government funding the Social Security deficit by having the Fed print money to finance the cashing in of the Social Security bonds.

This administration is the worst this government has ever had in fiscal policy. Obama is going to destroy our economic system. It will produce "equality" by making everyone poor. A lot of people are going to be in hard times due to this moron. Oh, by the way, his chief economic adviser has already announced he is jumping ship and leaving at the end of the year.

Obama has raided the public treasury and paid it out to his biggest campaign contributors and there is nothing left. But the executives at Goldman Sachs have theirs, Jack.
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Sep 25, 2010 7:42 pm

Actually Geekster, I was only using SS as a convenient "pallet" to paint a picture of how these far-off fiscal problems morph out of their projected time frame and hit us over the head. SS is holding $ 7.4 trillion in non-negotiable bonds from treasury. You can bet that they won't all be redeemed.
I do not like obama,,, not one bit.
BUT, we have to look at the larger / longer picture.

The FED is tasked with creating full employment. This should NOT be a requirement. It is in direct conflict with their other mandates.
After WW II, the U.S. had all the surviving manufacturing capacity. We raised our standard of living WAY up. The R.O.W. built their own manufacturing capacity. We lost market share. The "rust belt" was the perfect example. We borrowed 80 % of the savings worldwide to maintain our standard of living.
Greenspan sucked in all the money that could be sucked out of hiding. It couldn't go into manufacturing because we weren't competitive anymore. They goosed it into dot com stuff. That fell on it's face because it couldn't be absorbed and it was "abuse of capital".

GOV wasn't growing enough that it couldn't absorb the largess. The only sector that could absorb $ trillions and $ trillions was housing and retail RE.
Greenspan sucked up the money and millions were employed in construction. His mandate was full employment. We lost so much market share in manufacturing that, domestic construction was the only available niche that was guaranteed to provide jobs that wouldn't be immediately outsourced. Greenspan blew bubbles to keep providing jobs for over-paid Americans. Over paid in the global labor market.

The U.S. is still the # one manufacturer in the world. Greenspan could have extended the charade for a decade longer probably. BUT, segments of manufacturing saw greater profits in outsourcing. We still might have gotten a few more years but, efficiency kicked us in the ass. When they perfected containerized shipping, a huge new segment of manufacturing was subject to foreign competition.

A short list of manufacturing niches lost in the 70s? brought the rust belt to heavy manufacturing. Containerized shipping lengthened that list enormously. The rust belt is tightly wrapped around a huge list of products and industries.
As our balance of trade went from positive to negative,,,, as jobs and niches disappeared,,,, as Greenspan lit a fire under the deficit, we started into a debt spiral.

When our trade balance went from positive to negative, that told us that we weren't competitive. We didn't lower our wages or trash our currency, so we became increasingly non-competitive in the world market.

Greenspan tried to keep people employed. Bernanke is trying to keep the economy functioning. He's not quite as inept as most people believe. He HAS managed to keep interest down.

It has to be pointed out that a very big part of the reason that we are not competitive in many areas is because of our high overhead. We haul along a huge burden of parasites. The U.S. is more efficient at manufacturing that any other country. We could compete in most areas IF we didn't have the parasites. It's safe to say that they do not plan to go gentle into that good night.

The question of bonds is not so simple as most people think. Most investors are only buying 90 day bonds. The FED and the Carribean banks [aka CIA drug money] are the only ones buying long bonds. The U.S. needs to raise $ 3.4 trillion in the next 2 years. It all depends on how many people want to rollover or,,, cashout. If bonds arrear to peak-out, everybody and their brother will short them. That would be a fine kettle of fish.

There is speculation that obama's job is to crash the system while the military is still in pretty good shape. You remember the condition of the U.S.S.R.s military when they crashed. I guess that we have to just wait and see.
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Post by geekster » Sat Sep 25, 2010 8:46 pm

The FED is tasked with creating full employment.
By whom? I have never heard such a thing. The government can not create jobs, it can only hamper the creation of them. It has no accelerator, only a brake. Government can only get out of the way and allow private industry to create jobs. The only thing the fed can do is modulate the cost of capital. But even with cheap capital, it can not force business to hire if other costs are too high. Free capital isn't enough for a business to hire if it is going to cost them an arm and a leg to pay other costs associated with having employees.

The problem we had was that post 9/11 we kept interests rates too low for too long. Eventually this caused pressure on the dollar and a reduction in buyers for our debt. In order to protect the dollar, interest rates began to go up. That resulted in a catastrophe in the sub-prime adjustable rate mortgage market because millions of people were being put into that market who could just barely afford to make their payments as it was, let alone when their payments adjusted upwards when interest rates rose.

Now we have the same problem, interest rates are too low and have been for too long but rather than raising rates to attract investment, we have decided to simply have the fed print money and use it to buy government debt. It is funny money. The only thing really saving us is the fact that Europe has been in worse shape than we are and Japan just about as bad.

Europe DOES have some bright spots, though. With the repudiation of the socialists in Sweden, their economy is showing extremely good growth and they have re-elected the center-right government there. France has moved right in fiscal policy, Britain has moved somewhat to the right, Germany is moving more to the right as has Poland and Hungary. So they might begin to get their fiscal act together though Greece and Spain are still major drags. Spain went from the fastest growing economy in Europe to one of the worst with the election of a socialist government but are now (slowly) realizing the error of their ways and are beginning to reverse some of their more hare-brained policies (such as their "green jobs" initiative that the finally realized cost them over 2 jobs for every 1 created).

Obama is going to have a very tough go of it the next two years. He can be thankful that more Dem seats weren't up for election this cycle (many more will be up in 2012) but it looks like the Dems are going to find a bloodbath in November at all levels of government. I am even hearing talk of the Dems losing between 65 and 80 seats. That would make 1994 look like a little hiccup. It doesn't look like a single Republican seat is in jeopardy.

Dems will take a steam cleaning from gubernatorial positions as well as state legislatures. Wisconsin is looking like it is going to kick Feingold out of the Senate and Minnesota is looking at the possibility of a Republican legislature for the first time since the end of the last ice age.

One thing I read yesterday was that the Democrats are going to basically be flushed out of office from Western Pennsylvania all the way to the mountain West.

So we will have two years of deadlock with Obama not willing to sign anything the Congress produces and Congress not funding any of Obama's programs. Deadlock is probably better than what we have now but we aren't going to be able to get government out of the way of industry to create jobs, even if the fed make interest rates negative.

There are just too many regulations being imposed by career bureaucrats that are not responsible to the people.
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:00 pm

There was the 1946 act and later;
"In response to rising unemployment levels in the 1970s, Representative Augustus Hawkins and Senator Hubert Humphrey created the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act. It was signed into law by President Jimmy Carter on October 27, 1978, and codified as 15 USC § 3101. The Act explicitly instructs the nation to strive toward four ultimate goals: full employment" etc, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey%E ... ite_note-0
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Post by geekster » Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:44 pm

Oh, right. But you and I both know that is hogwash. The fed can't create employment. That was probably Humphrey's gambit to create a scapegoat for high unemployment so they could remove the legislative branch from any responsibility for creating conditions that caused unemployment. You just make a law that makes someone else responsible for "full employment" and then you can do whatever you want and blame them when employment goes down.

ADDED: And my guess is Carter would have been on that like white on rice considering the economy during his administration.

After all, look at the new Democratic Party logo:

Image
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Sep 26, 2010 9:32 am

While I agree, we get back to semantics. If America wants and needs a positive balance of trade, we just have to make stuff that the ROW wants. GOV can invest in R&D to develop these products. Research grants have produced lots of results. The current problem is that most research money goes to military systems. There are about 4,000 patents that are "locked up" as being of strategic importance.
Previously, we made a lot of technical advances. They gradually were adopted by manufacturers in the productive part of the economy. We sold lots of new stuff.

Now, the R&D money is all sucked up by the military. The ROW is kicking our ass when it comes to new technology. Our education system is oriented towards producing little, conformist cogs. That doesn't help for innovation.
GOV can't create jobs. GOV can create a climate for individuals to innovate. It is doing the opposite. Actually, GOV CAN create jobs. 50% of the lawyers in the world are in America.

The fact is; any new product or innovation is soon copied. This is a self-regulating mechanism that kills high profit margins in most manufacturing. Let's say profit margins are always driven down to 7 %,,, just as a number. Any economy that is hauling along too many parasites can never be competitive.
Industries that are monopolies, like pharmaceuticals, often have astronomical profit margins.
http://www.lef.org/magazine/mag2009/aug ... Off_01.htm
There has been a trend towards consolidation in many industries so, there are more monopolies.
Life Extension Foundation did a study showing the cost of the raw materials in common drugs compared to the cost of the medicines. The markup is thousands of %. The research costs are usually passed on to GOV and NOT absorbed by big pharma.

The main reason that GOV is floundering in the current crisis is because the parasites make us non-competitive and purchasing power is falling off a cliff. GOV is trying to paint a rosy picture so that we will go back to spending future wages on today's necessities [or luxuries].
As long as the roots are not severed, all will be well in the garden.
Well, the roots have been severed. GOV can claim otherwise but, nobody is buying it.
I, personally don't have to worry about employment but, that doesn't mean that I'm going to go out and splurge.
The parasites aren't going to let go anytime soon.
The bond market isn't going to go on forever.
The safety net can't be funded forever.

They might as well open the camps. The world labor market has told Americans, ,,, we no longer need your services.
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Post by geekster » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 am

" If America wants and needs a positive balance of trade"

A positive trade balance is not always a good thing:

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3655
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=4367
http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/good-new ... e-deficit/

People do not understand balance of trade and look at it like a budget, but it isn't. It is only one side of a budget.

Right now Israel in the West and China in the East is where all the R&D is taking place.

Our education system is more interested in social engineering than educating people. I absolutely agree that government is bending over backwards to penalize innovation. For example, the favorable tax treatment for gains from venture capital go away on Jan 1 and are treated no different than regular capital gains. US venture capital is moving overseas which is actually the goal of this administration. It is part of a global socialist "redistribution of wealth" from the developed world to other countries. They do the same with other regulations such as pollution regulations. There is a reason Brazil, China and India are exempt from practically all regulatory treaties. The goal of the treaties is to make it too expensive to build a factory in the US or Europe so companies build them in those countries. You can build a steel mill in Brazil, no problem (China has built several there) but you can't build one in the US. You can burn the dirtiest coal in the world in India or China but not in France.

China has 200 nuclear power plants either currently under construction or on order to be constructed. In the US you can not build a single nuclear plant. The US wants to mandate more wind power. Wind power uses a LOT of copper wire and rare earth magnets, same with hybrid cars. Where do you open a copper mine and smelter? Not in the US. China produces nearly 100% of the world's rare earth elements. And China is increasingly tightening control of these elements: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/busin ... erals.html

Our policies are designed to send as much cash as possible to China and make us dependent on them. We can not build solar and wind power without China. We CAN build nuclear power without them. Nuclear power is basically impossible to build in the US while the rest of the world is building it like gangbusters. Even Sweden has decided that it was a mistake to stop building nuclear power and is set to renew construction. So is the UK. Even GERMANY! We are destroying our industrial capacity through policy. We are producing people who can't do anything. Our science and math abilities compared to the ROW is declining. Most of the development of products in Silicon Valley is done by people who were educated outside of the US.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/09/ ... advantage/
"The outlook for America to compete for quality jobs has further deteriorated over the past five years," according to the new report.

Only 4 of the top 10 companies receiving U.S. patents in 2009 were American companies. Most of General Electric Co.'s research and development personnel are located outside of the U.S., and 77 percent of global firms surveyed said they will build new research and development facilities in China and India.

"China graduated more English-speaking engineers last year than we did," said Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va. "The United States' share of high-tech exports has fallen from 21 to 14 percent, while China's rose from 7 to 20 percent."
We can't even build a moon rocket anymore while China embarks on a ambitious project. We are contracting to Russia to move astronauts back and forth to the space station. As of next year, for the first time in 50 years, the US will have NO manned space flight capability and no project to create one aside from the SpaceX Falcon project which is completely private and has no guarantee of a manned flight customer.

This administration and that administration's political party have a goal to destroy this country as we know it. Their goal is to produce a generation of poor people dependent on government programs where "success" is a bad word and is to be penalized.

These idiots need to go. All the way down to the level of dog catcher. "Progressive" is an Orwellian word that produces exactly the opposite of "progress" unless you define progress as retarding progress.

I am about ready to just go "Galt" and stop working altogether but that would only further their goals.

The bottom line is that the US is not friendly for business development so business is fleeing. "Progressives" seem to think, "we can make the sort of economy we want by imposing these regulation" and then business flees and they have nothing to regulate ... and the people become unemployed.
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Sep 26, 2010 1:10 pm

Geekster, I only looked at the first article. It is SERIOUSLY flawed.
"Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investment"
What a crock of shit. He completely ignores import/export. Physical things are going across the border.

"A survey of America's major trading partners reveals no relationship between bilateral trade balances and openness to U.S. exports. For example, the U.S. runs a bilateral surplus with Brazil, which is relatively protectionist, while we run deficits with Canada and Mexico, which are almost totally open to U.S. exports thanks to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
There is no connection between trade deficits and industrial decline. From 1992 and 1997, the U.S. trade deficit almost tripled, while at the same time U.S. industrial production increased by 24 percent and manufacturing output by 27 percent"

This shithead throws it all in one pot. He completely ignores petroleum and acts like all trade is manufactured goods. Canada is our number one supplier of petroleum. DUhhhh, do you think that might affect our balance of trade with Canada? Mexico is # 3. Do you think that might affect trade balance??
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petr ... mport.html
The idiot lumps it all together. Actually, he would like us to believe that capital flows matter and physical goods don't.
Other idiots claim that deficits don't matter. Yeah,, right. As debt service slowly sucks the life out of the economy, they discover that deficits DO matter.

With all the many thousands of economists in academia and private practice, nobody saw this coming. The cited article is a VERY good example of why. Even the big brains at the Harvard group that invests the billions of dollars of school money were caught flat-footed. They lost billions.
99.9999999999999999999999 % of the economists spout regurgitated pablum. The profession is a disgrace.
I have no training in economics. In '05, I read the pages from the gold bugs. It was painfully obvious back then that the economy was unsustainable. How is it that I saw it and the legions of economists didn't?
I have no interest in reading the vast majority of economists. They pull a rear-view mirror out of their asshole every few months and peer intently at it's very foggy past view. They have to make sure that it doesn't look to far and wide. Then, they make their prognostication based on what they see in the mirror. Eg, " house prices NEVER decline".
Sorry, I can't read the other 2 articles that you cited.
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Post by geekster » Sun Sep 26, 2010 7:48 pm

The first two articles are by the same guy. the third is by another but three are exactly consistent with what I learned in my college economics. People do not understand balance of trade and if you say he completely ignores import/export, then you completely didn't understand the article.

Movement of capital across borders INCLUDES import and export but that is only one side of the balance sheet. The the balance in trade is then balanced against the balance in investment. It always balances to zero. If we run a trade deficit, then we run an investment surplus, if we run a trade surplus then we run an investment deficit. It is apparent that you didn't read the article closely or you don't understand it. I really don't understand the insults as it isn't an opinion piece, it is explaining the math.
The balance of payments accounts capture two sides of an equation: the current account and the capital account. The current account side of the ledger covers the flow of goods, services, investment income, and uncompensated transfers such as foreign aid and remittances across borders by private citizens. Within the current account, the trade balance includes goods and services only, and the merchandise trade balance reflects goods only. On the other side, the capital account includes the buying and selling of investment assets such as real estate, stocks, bonds, and government securities.

If a country runs a capital account surplus of $100 billion, it will run a current account deficit of $100 billion to balance its payments. As economist Douglas Irwin explains, "If a country is buying more goods and services from the rest of the world than it is selling, the country must also be selling more assets to the rest of the world than it is buying."(17)

The necessary balance between the current account and the capital account implies a direct connection between the trade balance on the one hand and the savings and investment balance on the other. That relationship is captured in the simple formula:

Savings - Investment = Exports - Imports

Thus, a nation that saves more than it invests, such as Japan, will export its excess savings in the form of net foreign investment. In other words, it must run a capital account deficit. The money sent abroad as investment will return to the country to purchase exports in excess of what the country imports, creating a corresponding trade surplus. A nation that invests more than it saves--the United States, for example--must import capital from abroad. In other words, it must run a capital account surplus. The imported capital allows the nation's citizens to consume more goods and services than they produce, importing the difference through a trade deficit.
Again, this article is not an opinion piece, it is what amounts to a introductory primer (albeit at second year college level) in economics on an international scale. If you don't understand it, then quite likely everything you think you know about money is wrong and now your continued adherence to this gold standard nonsense begins to make better sense in that context. Quite simply, I am beginning to have my doubts about your knowledge of the subject on which you are holding forth.

ADDED: That last sentence of the quote is key "The imported capital allows the nation's citizens to consume more goods and services than they produce, importing the difference through a trade deficit."

It is BECAUSE we attract foreign capital that the US can buy more than we produce. Running a trade surplus means that the country is no longer able to purchase what it produces and must sell the excess abroad. We currently are able to purchase much more than we produce as a nation. That is a GOOD thing. If we were to run a trade surplus, we would probably be in a depression.
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Sep 26, 2010 9:47 pm

Geekster, it is you and the author who do not understand. That is shown by the fact that academia and GOV were caught flat-footed. If what you learned in college economics is what is taught today, it is obvious that it is all incorrect.
I heard an interview with a Princeton? professor of economics. He stated that Gerald Celente's group of 25 people was almost comparable to a university economics department. Yeah,, sure. Celente was right and ALL of them were wrong. The hubris of academia is SO pathetic. The same can be said of many graduates.

It IS an opinion piece. His opinions are proved wrong by events. There is no argument.
" If we were to run a trade surplus, we would probably be in a depression." Listen to yourself. The U.S had a big trade surplus after the war years. That period was when we were most affluent. Canada runs a trade surplus because they sell us oil. How could that possibly translate to "they can't purchase all they produce"? They can cut down more trees than they need. They produce 144% of their food needs. A surplus of tangibles is real wealth. A big supply of debt instruments is nothing but debt. Germany is doing well with their trade surplus. Japan did very well with their trade surplus.

ADDED: That last sentence of the quote is key "The imported capital allows the nation's citizens to consume more goods and services than they produce, importing the difference through a trade deficit."
This is another crock of shit. It assumes that a country will be able to attract foreign investment to buy the debt instruments caused by the account deficit.
How short-sighted can you get? This is the whole Keynesian BULLSHIT,,, regurgitated.
WE can only redeem the instruments [capital inflows] on maturity by paying principle AND interest. To believe in Keynes, you must believe in unending growth.
If we don't have growth, we can NOT redeem all the debt instruments that we sold.
The clown does not differentiate between capital inflows from sales and capital inflows from incurring debt. One has to be paid back on the other does not.
Russia was not able to attract capital after the bond meltdown. They closed the account deficit with OIL,,, NOT instruments. GOV makes the assumption that they can sell debt instruments in increasing amounts,, forever.

Keynes is dead without growth. Our aggregate earning power continues to diminish. You can cite all the degrees that you got from academia. They have conclusively proved themselves CLUELESS. Their world is sterile and linear.

"it isn't an opinion piece, it is explaining the math. " Yep, like global warming, they have it all figured out to the third decimal place. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Academia and it's progeny are a big joke in many cases. Events have steamrollered all their theories.
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:00 pm

This is a somewhat complex article talking about QE II. It's not an ocean liner. It refers to a second round of printing and asset buying by the FED. It is expected to happen after Nov 3,, or at the latest, a few months later. It will be announced at a meeting of the FED. The article and writers show good logic to predict that hyperinflation will occur about 6 months after QE II.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-qe ... ge-monetar

The authors call for price increases in most asset classes. Then, they foresee a general collapse. Like a far-off mountain range, the details become clearer as one gets closer. I haven't the ability to validate their arguments. These people are some of the best prognosticators in the world. It's an interesting article in that it sets a time / date for a hyper-inflationary collapse.... a risky prediction. Most of the writers who have proved to be accurate or fairly accurate are calling for a collapse in Q2 of 2011. I have no forking idea. :?
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Post by can't sit still » Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:42 pm

The IMF came out and said that things were going to be real bad until there was a more equitable distribution of wealth. Right now, global aggregate purchasing power is rapidly diminishing. The economic pie is shrinking. Most countries are trying to weaken their currency to get a bigger piece of pie. Some real smart people have predicted that the U.S. will crash the dollar. This would be the ultimate form of weakening a currency. Think trillion dollar Zimbabwe notes.
This is NOT a solution. One can weaken a currency to get more exports. If everyone does a competitive devaluation of their currency, there is no advantage. All currencies are crap.
The economy is in a spiral because there is insufficient purchasing power. There have been several suggestions to remedy this. This one is from Wallace Klinick;


What the critics and commentators fail, almost universally, to understand is that the public debt represents a shortage of purchasing power arising from failure of the financial system to distribute sufficient effective consumer purchasing power as production takes place. Under orthodox financial rules, the only option for consumers, if they are to access the flow of goods and services from industry, is increasingly to incur debt in the form of repayable credits issued as loans, ultimately by the banking system. By all reasonable standards of equity the people as a nation should own the goods and services which they produce, with the growing assistance of technology. Money, properly regarded not as a commodity but rather as a system of accountancy designed to reflect what we produce and consume, should simply reflect the value of what we do in the economic sphere. That is to say, the National Debt (or public debt. per se) reflects what the people should have been provided, additional to their earned income, as effective purchasing power so that the latter in total would equate, or balance, with the total value of consumer goods and services at any given time during any given economic production period. The National Debt actually, therefore, belongs to the Nation at large and should be a National Credit in which all citizens (i.e.,) consumers, are holders of a single share of no par value upon which they should be receiving National (Consumer) Dividends. It should not be a debt owing to financial banking institutions which, by claiming ownership of the credit which they create against the assets of others, have fraudulently appropriated the credit of society for their own advantage in terms of income and power. Default on the National Debt would be a capitulation to the Monopoly of Credit and a recognition of the validity of its false claims against the real credit (i.e., the ability to create goods and services as, when and where desired) of the nation. Your colourful statement that it is better to break our chains than to accept a sword through the heart is most appropriate to the circumstances. Defaulting on the debt would be an acceptance of the false claim of the issuers of credit, i.e., the Banking System, to ownership of the real credit of society. This would be tantamount to allowing an accountancy service to seize the assets of the firm upon which they are reporting. It would be a supine accedence and acquiescence to the principle and status of slavery. It would lend undeserved credence, and be abject submission to, a colossal falsehood--to the Incarnate Lie that is the existing Financial System. Social Credit as formulated by the late Major Clifford Hugh Douglas, is, indeed, the only known disciplined and credible alternative to the existing fraudulent and oppressive system of Debt Finance. The "National Debt" should be restored to those to whom it rightly and properly belongs--to the consuming public of the nation. Henceforth it should be prevented from accumulating through the continuous provision of sufficient consumer purchasing power allowing the consumers at large to claim the full output of industry without forced recourse to financial debt--while providing a stable basis of consumer demand backed by the financial means for industry to recover its costs of production.

Sincerely
Wally

I can't say if it is valid or not. Like all theories, it needs to be proved or disproved.
One of the big failings of Keynesian economics is that it demands GOV to save up a big cash surplus during the good times and spend it during the bad times. That part of the message has gotten lost with GOV.
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Post by can't sit still » Tue Sep 28, 2010 8:57 pm

Big, Bad, Bald, Ben Bernanke is a professor at Princeton. The other members of the FOMC are all respected economists and bankers. If you read this article, they more or less confess that economists don't have a clue what they are doing;
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/j ... -time.aspx

Two economists, Seth B. Carpenter and Selva Demiralp, recently posted a discussion paper on the Federal Reserve Board’s website, titled “Money, Reserves, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?
Fine time to ask a question like this.
"That not only repudiates the textbook money multiplier model but also raises lots of questions"
"This view is not consistent with the simple models in many textbooks or the monetarist tradition in monetary policy" "We will need to watch and study this channel carefully.â€
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Post by 1durphul » Wed Sep 29, 2010 5:24 pm

While I personally think the three or four of you in this discussion have lost all sight of reality due to an echo chamber effect, I thought you might find this interesting none-the-less:

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/arc ... ety/63582/

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Post by can't sit still » Wed Sep 29, 2010 6:17 pm

1durphul, It's a good paper with a good premise. People do feel shabby if they can't afford every luxury that they want. SOME people. I'm not at all concerned about people who had their second Beamer repoed. I'm concerned about the people who can't even get enough to eat. People who have NO prospects in the job market.
"Unemployment for one, the Labor Department's headlined (U-3) 9.6% masks the true 22% based on 1980 calculations.

With America in economic crisis, the new Census report portends much worse ahead under a president and Congress doing little to address it, the Brookings Institution Isabel Sawhill expecting the problem to "get much worse"

"In early August, the US Department of Agriculture reported a record 40.8 million Americans (one in eight) on food stamps, a 19% increase year over year, and 18 straight months of record highs."
It's about 43 million now.
"saying one in eight Americans are food insecure, meaning they don't get enough to eat. Included are 14 million children and three million seniors"

The report did not say that the kids couldn't get iPods. It said that they couldn't get food.
"First Focus reported about one million homeless students. Based on Department of Education data, the total rose by over 40% from the 2006-07 school year - 2008-09, a number well over a million now and rising."
A 40 rise in homeless students in 2 years. If living in your car isn't a sign of poverty, what is?
"On September 16, the Census Bureau reported that US poverty rose to 43.6 million in 2009, an increase of 3.8 million in the past year"

Sure, wealth is relative but, the very-sharp rise in these numbers is what counts.
"Critics, however, maintain that government figures way understate the gravity of today's crisis, and even the Bureau admits that official thresholds were developed over 40 years ago. They haven't taken into account true rising inflation levels"

I traveled across India by road. It's true that poverty means different things to different people. I believe that malnutrition is a universal qualifier.
http://www.rense.com/general92/pov.htm[/i]
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Sep 29, 2010 6:53 pm

Former FED chairman Paul Volker has had a lot to say about bankers and economists;
"USFed Chairman Volcker. The man of extreme stature, perhaps the last effective central banker of US vintage, delivered a scathing tirade to a gathering of bankers and economists, harshly criticizing them in impromptu fashion. He left no financial stone without a stain or dent, in the most ringing, acerbic, rattling harangue qualifying as internal indictment in US history!! That is not an exaggeration, not in the least. Such a shrill speech has never been witnessed in US history. "
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1285794000.php
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Post by can't sit still » Thu Sep 30, 2010 8:11 am

There is plenty of guilt to go around. Too many people wanted to live well without producing. Mobocracy always causes this. Too many bankers gambled with other people's money. Too many wars for profit.
This page is a general indictment of bankers. It claims that they have systematically crashed MANY economies for profit. These countries were offered credit that they couldn't pay back. I guess you can always count on people to take something offered,,, even if it will destroy them in the end. History says that this won't end well.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/introd ... ld-war-iii

This article talks about feudalism. It also talks about the acceleration of the collapse for this fall. It has a GREAT picture at the beginning;
http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=812

This article has graphs that prove that there is no recovery;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... usage.html
These graphs show the same;
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... o-our.html
Dan
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Oct 03, 2010 7:14 am

I received this in mail. It's an extremely informative document about how bankers have continually distorted fact and history to keep us and GOV from understanding money. Money is only related to law, not commodity. This message was testimony in front of the British house of Lords?


Tel. 518-392-5387, email [email protected]

Zarlenga:


I thank the Honorable MP Austin Mitchell for inviting me to speak in this historic hall. And Mrs. Sabine Kurjo Mcneill and Canon Peter Challen and the monetary reform groups for arranging it. It’s an honor to bring the research results of the American Monetary Institute on the World’s deepening monetary problems to your attention, - even when those results may sound controversial.

So many positive aspects of our political system originated in yours, nothing would please me more than to contribute to the good functioning of your money system. 2 hours indicated for this session, but since so many of you are versed on monetary matters we’ll get into questions after a brief presentation.

The World’s economic problems are rooted in the miscontrol of our money systems which have been based on an inadequate concept of the nature of money.

In America many States are broke and cutting needed programs and raising middle class taxes, while an untaxed corporate culture resembling institutionalized theft has unfortunately dominated for years. Enron, WorldCom, and Arthur Andersen are gone. Citibank and Merrill Lynch were fined over a thousand million $ for their complicity in scandals. It was New York’s Attorney General Spitzer, not the private Federal Reserve System, who levied the fines. Americans face a future of rising bankruptcies and falling job opportunities. Of course we all feel a lot safer with Martha Stewart heading into goal.

In England, thanks in part to the 1946 nationalization of the Bank of England, and other more recent advances the symptoms take on different, less virulent forms – but I’m told there’s deep concern over growing national commitments and the debt and interest costs they might bring under your present monetary arrangements. The good news for both our countries is that tried and true monetary solutions exist and could be applied. 2

HALF OF THE PROBLEM IS The failure of economics from Adam Smith to the present to define or discover a concept of money consistent with both logic AND history. Economists rarely define money, assuming an understanding of it.

It’s still argued whether the nature of money is a concrete power, embodied in a commodity like gold; or whether it’s a credit/debit issued by private banks. Does its value come from the material of which it’s made? Or is it, as we have concluded, an abstract legal institution of society, having value in exchanges due to the sponsorship of government?

The correct answer – the Science of Money - leads to conclusions on the proper monetary role of government; on whether private banks should be allowed to continue creating money - or whether this powerful privilege belongs solely in public hands through government.

THE OTHER HALF OF THE PROBLEM is the Mythology of Money – that what A Lot of People Think They Know About Money, just isn’t so. A body of plausible sounding but misleading – even false ideas, repeated century after century by powerful interests, now passes for monetary wisdom. A large part of this mythology is the view that government has been the main abuser of money systems and inevitably causes inflation. This deeply entrenched viewpoint assumes that society has had better experience with privately controlled money than with government issued money. We’ll examine the evidence behind that dominant viewpoint. I doubt anyone will disagree that beliefs should rest on factual evidence to remain credible?

What if an examination of the facts shows that publicly created money has a superior record to private bank created money? Such facts are found mainly in history.

IN DEFINING MONEY, METHOD IS CRUCIAL

We have two basic approaches to understanding money: A theoretical method based on logic; and an empirical approach based on experience or history. Practitioners of the two methods normally arrive at very different conclusions. Support for commodity money or private credit money tends to be based on theory, while Historians normally want a much larger role for government.

Alexander Del Mar the great monetary historian wrote "As a rule political economists...don’t take the trouble to study the history of money; it is much easier to imagine it and to deduce the principles of this imaginary knowledge."

This over-reliance on logic and downplaying of the facts has worsened with students being sidetracked into higher mathematics of questionable use.

ARISTOTLE (384-322 BC) gave the culmination of Greek thought and experiment on money around 340 BC:

"All goods must therefore be measured by some one thing...now this unit is in truth, demand, which holds all things together...but money has become by convention a sort of representative of 3

demand; and this is why it has the name nomisma - because it exists not by nature, but by law (which in Greek was nomos) and it is in our power to change it and make it useless." ([LSM] Ch. 1)

So Aristotle identifies money as a creature of the law. Not a commodity from nature but an abstract social institution. Its essence is not tangible wealth, but a power to obtain wealth.

THIS DISTINCTION BETWEEN MONEY AND WEALTH IS CRUCIAL.

PLATO Agreed With Aristotle and advocated fiat money for his Republic:

"The law enjoins that no private individual shall possess or hoard gold or silver bullion, but have money only fit for domestic use. ...wherefore our citizens should have a money current among themselves but not acceptable to the rest of mankind...."(Laws) "Then they will need a market place, and a money-token for purposes of exchange."(Republic)

Both Aristotle and Plato noted the paramount principle - the nature of money is a fiat of the law, an invention or creation of mankind. This concept is part of a lost science of money which must be relearned as we enter the 3rd millennium if mankind is to move back from the brink of nuclear disaster, to move away from a future dominated by fraud and ugliness toward a future of justice and beauty.

Significantly, Aristotle’s term "nomisma" is seldom found in early Greek texts. It’s in Herodotus in the 400s BC, but not again until Aristotle, over a hundred years later. This concept of money was probably suppressed in an ongoing struggle between oligarchic forces – a kind of "old Boy Network" relying on personal relations, arrayed against public money, and the developing, more democratic, public sphere of the Greek Polis, which introduced and controlled the nomisma payment mechanism. (LSM, Ch. 1)

THIS GREAT "PRIVATE VS. PUBLIC" BATTLE FOR THE CONTROL OF MONEY recurs throughout history to this day. It determines the outcomes that determine how well a money system works. A good one functions fairly; helping the society create values for living. A bad one obstructs the creation of values; gives special privileges to some to the disadvantage of others; promotes unfair concentrations of wealth and power, and disharmony and social strife.

Despite the prejudice against government, the historical record shows publicly controlled money functions better than private systems. Furthermore, research shows that the concept of money - how money is defined – determines whether the system will be publicly or privately controlled. If money is defined as wealth, for example gold, then the wealthy will control the monetary System. If money is defined as credit, then the bankers will control the system. If its correctly defined as an abstract legal institution then the society itself has a chance to democratically set priorities and control the money system for the common good. There’s a great deal at stake in just how a society defines money. (LSM, Ch. 16) 4

HERE ARE TWO CASES OF this monetary science from ancient Greece and Rome reflecting Aristotle’s nomisma concept:

Plutarch describes Lycurgus 8th century BC monetary reform when Sparta’s wealth became overly concentrated. He banned using gold and silver and used iron slugs for money. Furthermore those iron pieces were dipped in vinegar while hot, to render them brittle and purposely destroy any commodity value that they had as iron! They received their value through legal sanction. 400 years before Plutarch, Plato confirms that Sparta’s iron money was rendered useless with the vinegar treatment. This nomisma system lasted over 3 centuries and Sparta became a premier power. Polybius tells it faltered when Sparta’s involvement in empire retrogressed her back to gold and silver money. (LSM, Ch. 1)

REPUBLICAN ROME based her money on copper, isolating herself from the East and "disenfranchising" the gold/silver hoards and therefore much of the power of the East. Gold could still be traded as merchandise; but without the monetary power, the ability of the East to control or disrupt Rome’s money was reduced and she had a better chance to control her destiny. Roman Nomisma, were bronze discs valued far above their commodity content through the law. (LSM, Ch. 2)(XXX AES GRAVE SLIDE)

(An Aside - When the US rose to become the dominant world power, we didn’t have this advantage of monetary isolation. But interestingly during the two great crises of our nation – the Revolutionary War, and the Civil War - we erected money systems completely independent of Old World Power: the Continental Currency and the Greenbacks. And though both have been criticized, they served us well.) 5

XXX ROMA COIN, XXX DENARIUS, XXX OATH SCENE SLIDES

Rome won the Punic wars, but they destroyed her money system and she regressed to Eastern moneys- First to silver, and then with the imposition of Empire, Julius Caesar established a gold standard using the weight system of the ancient temples. The growth of plutocracy accelerated; wealth concentrated in its hands and the population degenerated into slavery. Adopting the East’s money caused power and even the Empire’s headquarters to shift eastward to Byzantium. (LSM, Ch. 2 & 3)

Since money is based in law, and in turn the money system supports the legal system, The breakdown of law and money operated negatively, one upon the other for centuries in a downward spiral of societal decay, especially in the West, where the city of Rome itself was temporarily overrun. The concept of money regressed to crude metallism and the science of money was lost again, especially in the West.

These two ancient cases illustrate that the system we are proposing is not new or hypothetical. Its almost three millennia old and important societies were based on it.

Several parts of the Lost Science are visible there:

Its legal not commodity basis

Importance of limitation of issue

Importance of keeping the control within national hands

SECTION END

SECTION START

UNFORTUNATELY A MYTHOLOGY OF MONEY has obscured this science and served to keep the money power in private hands. A Science of money is put forward logically and historically showing that seignorage – the profit of issuing money – and more importantly the POWER derived from it, clearly belongs to the nation, not to private banks.

A Plutocracy counters with a mythology – the slur that government – the organized expression of your society CAN’T HANDLE IT.

Since Adam Smith a three-century campaign raises the fear of inflation and abuse under government money, even though the evidence shows greater monetary abuse by private systems. In this campaign they still advertise the 600-700 year old cases of monarchs "debasing" their coinage, but NEVER give the context that this period which we call the KINGLY ABUSE PERIOD occurred after the collapse of European monetary order with the fall of Byzantium in 1204 at the hands of the 4th Crusade. Not mentioned is that much of the Kingly alterations were a necessary form of taxation, or that REPUBLICS fared much better monetarily than monarchies. Nor do they discuss the greater monetary problems caused by private bankers during those times. 6

In addition to my book also consult Peter Spufford’s great study Money and its use in Medieval Europe published by Cambridge. He describes how the Anglo Saxon kings re-coined the money about every six years, issuing three pennies for every four taken in. This was a 25% tax or about 4% a year. No doubt some will paint these re-coinages as nefarious, but Spufford says this revenue provided the strength of the late Anglo Saxon and early Norman kings, who adopted their system.

ALSO – While you have been criticized for snobbishly looking down on the Continent, maybe its appropriate in this area. As an island community you’ve had monetary advantages over the Continent and your Kings did pretty well on the money question:

In 1346 Parliament tried to gain control over money but was refused. In 1414 Parliament tried to get at least a veto power in monetary matters but was again refused. Breckenridge in Legal Tender wrote:

"Why did Parliament not succeed in its attempt to assume the coinage power as it succeeded in assuming the power over taxation? One reason...was that Parliament had no other remedy to propose, no other line of conduct to suggest than that pursued by the Crown."

Despite modern day prejudices, the English King’s long standing monetary prerogative was used responsibly. W.A. Shaw’s History of Currency, written in 1896, could identify only one case of monarchical coinage irresponsibility:

"This instance of debasement (1545-46 under Henry VIII) is the only one on record in English currency history," he wrote, and it amounted to a grand debasement of about 15%! WHAT’S THE BIG DEAL? If your mental impression of that case is a lot worse, maybe that’s an effect of the propaganda in this battle for control of the nation’s money.

And before bringing up the stoppage of the exchequer, do read Chris Hollis interpretation of that event in The Two Nations.

CONSIDERING MORE RECENT TIMES, distinguished conservative journalist Henry Hazlitt epitomized the modern day form of this private vs public money battle. In his introduction to Andrew Dickson White’s essay, Fiat Money Inflation in France, a classic attack on government money, Hazlitt wrote:

"(The) world has failed to learn the lesson of the Assignats. Perhaps the study of the other great inflations - of John Law’s experiments with credit in France …; of the history of our own Continental currency …; of the Greenbacks of our Civil War; of the great German inflation that culminated in 1923 - would help to underscore and impress that lesson. Must we, from this appalling and repeated record, draw once more the despairing conclusion that the only thing man learns from history is that man learns nothing from history?" 7

Hazlitt believed history backed up his viewpoint. He trusted the reports he read on those inflations. But they were not accurate, and to this day a literature about those events continues to grow, ranging from misleading to false, mostly just repeating earlier disingenuous accounts.

Lets take a look - First THE CONTINENTAL CURRENCY begun in May 1775, became the lifeblood of the American Revolution. $200 million were authorized and $200 million issued. They functioned well. In late 76 they were only at a 5% discount to coinage when General Howe made New York City the center for British counterfeiting. You Brits counterfeited billions of our Continentals. If you ever find out how many, please let us know for the record! Newspaper ads openly offered the forgeries; yet General Clinton complained to Lord George Germaine:

"The experiments suggested by your Lordships have been tried, no assistance that could be drawn from the power of gold or the arts of counterfeiting have been left untried; but still the currency ... has not failed."

In March 1778 after 3 years of war, it was at $2.01 Continental for $1 of coinage.

The Continentals carried us over 5½ years of Revolution to within 6 months of final victory. Thomas Paine, England’s greatest gift to America, wrote: XXX TOM PAINE slide

"Every stone in the Bridge, that has carried us over, seems to have a claim upon our esteem. But this was a corner stone, and its usefulness cannot be forgotten. ...But to suppose as some did, that, at the end of the war, it was to grow into gold or silver, or become equal thereto, was to suppose that we were to get 200 millions of dollars by going to war, instead of paying the cost of carrying it on." (LSM, Ch. 14)

The Continental Currency gave us a nation. Without it there would not be a United States.

FRANCE’s MONEY SYSTEM was brought down by JOHN LAW a fugitive Scottish gambler. But Law’s operations were structured as private companies despite his recommending governmental structures.

After an initial widely hailed success, his main focus became raising the price of the private company shares. We’ve all heard of the orgies of private speculation on the Rue Quincompaix in Paris, concurrent with England’s 1720 South Sea Scandal – another private affair. Law’s system was thus largely a failure of private money. The more obvious lesson which the French should not have had to learn from John Law, is that its not a good idea to turn your nation’s money system over to a professional gambler wanted for murder in his home country! DUH.

FRANCE’S later ASSIGNATS from 1789 were government issued, but under conditions of a society and economy already so ruined by aristocratic extravagance that the people had risen in revolution.



In the modern propaganda battle for control over society’s monetary power the Assignats described in White’s Fiat Money In France has been an important propaganda weapon against government money.



Few realize that was White's purpose, written in 1876 during the battles over the American Greenbacks, almost a century after the Assignats were issued. White, whose inherited fortune arose from banking, eloquently used several rhetorical methods to attack the Greenbacks. But Hazlitt’s introduction presents White’s essay as objective history on France, not as a political tract on the Greenbacks. Since a direct examination of the Greenbacks and their results would defeat Whites purpose, instead he argued from analogy, asserting that what was true for France in time of ruin, must also be true for the United States in relative calm.

Right from its publication Whites book was exposed in a lengthy essay by Stephen Dillaye, who pointed out the purpose and faults in White’s arguments including omitting to inform his readers that the Swiss and later British counterfeited far more Assignats than the French ever created. These facts became documented through English court cases in which the counterfeiters were suing each other! In the propaganda battle against government money, Whites book has somehow been continuously kept in print by conservative foundations, the latest being the Cato Institute; Dillaye’s important essay, out of print for 125 years is quite rare but we managed to find one, and will reprint it.

Well you may be thinking, no matter what Zarlenga says THE 1923 GERMAN HYPERINFLATION surely condemns all government paper money!! But in fact that occurred under a privately owned and privately controlled Reichsbank. Furthermore the hyperinflation began the very month that all German governmental influence on the bank was removed and placed in private hands at the insistence of the occupation forces. Furthermore Hjalmar Schacht tells us in his 1967 book The Magic of Money, that this private Reichsbank actually facilitated the hyperinflation by financing the speculators short sales of the mark. He didn’t mention these things in his 1928 book on the subject.

It would be asking a lot after 3 centuries of propaganda for this brief examination to convince you, but hopefully you’ll agree that a thorough examination is called for.

WHAT ABOUT THE AMERICAN GREENBACKS?

Again this case doesn’t stand scrutiny. Contemporary observers called it "the Best Money that ever a nation had" and a majority wanted to keep them permanently. But they were outmaneuvered politically by a wealthy coalition of bankers, professors and Puritan ministers. Greenback Photo

Thanks to 100 years of misreporting and propaganda, the image of the Greenbacks coming down to us is inflated or worthless paper money. But in fact, $450 million were authorized and $450 million were printed. Counterfeiters couldn’t duplicate the Greenbacks. Every Greenback was eventually exchangeable one for one with gold coin. 9

The Greenbacks were not promises to pay money later – they were the money. Since they were not borrowed, they did not give rise to interest payments and did not add to any national debt. The U.S. Treasury printed them and spent them into circulation.

Economists know little about the Greenbacks. Critics merely remark that they dropped to 36 cents in gold, and leave it at that. While that happened, its highly misleading. Here’s the whole picture: XXX Greenbacks Vs Gold CHART

Some claim the Greenbacks kept value because later legislation called for redeeming them in gold. But that unnecessary Resumption Act couldn’t pass til 1874 for implementation in 1879. That couldn’t have caused the Greenbacks to start rising in July 1864. What did happen was that in June 1864, Congress limited the amount of Greenbacks to $450 million. An important part of the science of money is limitation of issue.

ACTUAL PRICE MOVEMENTS DURING THE PERIOD were complex

Wesley Mitchell’s 1908 Greenback studies are watershed works. He quickly discovered that "There was no easy explanation of prices." Many related commodities didn’t move the same, such as wool and cotton. Gunpowder prices didn’t rise much. The fastest rising commodities in one period were sometimes the fastest falling in another period.

Mitchell constructed several price indexes, as there were none in existence. Items had to be weighted for importance. Mitchell’s indexes started at 100 in 1860. His cost-of-living index median rose a maximum of 73% by 1866 in the east, 57% in the west. This is a very different picture from mere gold prices.

YES THERE WAS INFLATION BUT REMEMBER 13% OF THE POPULATION was fighting a terrible war. 625,000 died. Greenbacks performed well despite being spent on destruction as this horrific scene from Gettysburg shows. XX GETTYSBURG

THEY WERE ALSO BEING ABUSED BY THE BANKERS. FOR EVERY GREENBACK CREATED BY CONGRESS, THE BANKING SYSTEM CREATED $1.49 IN BANK NOTES.

An infuriated Treasury Secretary Chase remarked: ‘It is a struggle on the part of the banking institutions of the country to bleed the government of the U.S. to the tune of 6% on every dollar which it is necessary for the government to use in carrying on this struggle for our independence and our life."

And Still they functioned well. Some later economists would be surprised how well:

COMMENTS ON THE WARTIME INFLATION

Unger has noted that: "It is now clear that inflation would have occurred even without the Greenback issue." 10

And comparing a wartime inflation under a government run money system (the Civil War) to wartime inflation under a private banker run system (WW1), Civil War historian Randall wrote:

"The threat of inflation was more effectively curbed during the Civil War than during the First World War. Indeed as John K. Galbraith has observed, ‘it is remarkable that without rationing, price controls, or central banking, Chase could have managed the federal economy so well during the Civil War.’"

The fact that the Greenbacks were not accepted for import duties may also have been an important negative factor against the currency:

"Hence it has been argued that the Greenback circulation issued in 1862 might have kept at par with gold if it, too, had been made receivable for all payments to the Government," wrote financial historian Dewey. Also, if interest payments on government bonds had been paid in Greenbacks instead of gold, a large part of the demand for gold would have disappeared. Studenski and Kroos, in their authoritative Financial History of the United States, pronounced in favor of the Greenbacks:

"Some writers have ascribed the price inflation almost entirely to the issuance of greenbacks, but this is a mistaken view. Even if the greenbacks had not been issued and bonds had been sold at whatever price they would bring in the market, inflation would have taken place. It would merely have taken another form - that of the monetization of debt through the issue of bank currency or the creation of bank credit."

AND WHAT IF??

WHAT IF instead of being spent on destruction, they went into building infrastructure, canals and roads; or more farm machinery factories? Spending such money on infrastructure or on productive capacity need not be inflationary. For example the Erie Canal lowered freight prices from $114 a ton down to $9 a ton.

THE GREAT LESSON OF THE GREENBACKS Is That In Times Of Crisis - and other times too - our nation has Power to do what is financially necessary, through our government. We dont have to beg or borrow money from the wealthy and, create an astronomical national debt. We don’t have to tax the middle class into oblivion, or cancel necessary programs. We can carefully use the nations’ sovereign money power far more than we presently have been allowed to realize. (LSM, Ch. 17)

We have gone into some detail since this is the system we advocate. Again its not a theoretical, hypothetical reform, but something we know how to do and have done, basing a third of our nations money supply on it for five decades. 11

THE SOUTH’S CONFEDERATE CURRENCY BECAME WORTHLESS and we agree that a fiat currency does depend upon a continuation of the government that issues it. But also the Confederate money never reached the level of real money. It was always a promise to pay money later, notably in gold or silver form. The South was afraid of paper money likening it to "the Mark of the beast."

IN MORE RECENT TIMES, DURING WARFARE, banks to assure their own survival, as in WWI and WWII, issued the money in large quantities. They knew the resulting production would be blown up, sunk or be useless and not become new consumer goods or production facilities or improved infrastructure, which would have lowered prices, benefited the populace, and made the people more independent of the bankers.

Warfare thus became associated with "getting the economy moving." But it wasn’t the warfare; it was the accompanying monetary and production activity that did it.

We haven’t seen modern cases in the English speaking world where such high levels of money creation were directed into real production, and not specifically destined for destruction. The private banking system has been unable or unwilling to do that, and they have not allowed government to do it. Partial exceptions are the limited efforts undertaken by Roosevelt after the Great Depression, which gave us projects like Hoover Dam, and the water and sewer systems still used in our upstate New York area. Another exception was NASA’s all-out effort to reach the moon, which fostered much of our modern miniaturized computerization.

In short, the Plutocracy’s inflation theme is "the big lie."

You can’t allow this mythology to dictate you actions.

SECTION START

HOW WAS THE SCIENCE OF MONEY RECOVERED AFTER ROME DECLINED?

About 800 AD CHARLEMAGNE re-instituted money in the West. But minting his pennies depended on working slaves to the death in the silver mines. XXX PENNY (LSM, Ch. 4)

When his Empire ran out of conquests and slaves, the money system faltered. This plunder/conquest/slavery basis of precious metals systems continued well into the 19th century. Modern 19th and 20th century moneys claiming to be precious metals systems, depended on an element of fraud as we’ll see.

JUST AS VENICE BEGAN EXPERIMENTING WITH FIAT COPPER COINS, Columbus found America and Europe’s precious metals money systems became more functional only after she began the plunder of the Americas. The total loot taken at gunpoint from the Indians from 1500 to 1700, was 12

over 1200 tons of gold and 60,000 tons of silver! These amounts far overshadowed European supplies, and prices rose about 400 to 500% during that time.

The theft was their minor offense. Estimates place the Indian population under Spanish control at 32 million souls and in less than 40 years they killed about 15 million of them; working most to death in the mines. Near Mexico City one report states:

"For half a league round the mine, and for a great part of the road to it, you could scarcely make a step except upon dead bodies or the bones of dead men. The birds of prey coming to feed on these corpses darkened the Sun."

Spain did the dirty work on the ground; England and Holland formed privateers to raid Spanish fleets. XXX POTOSI COIN (LSM, Ch. 8)

This was a very rare period where the gold supply kept pace with population growth. Historically it has not, and so gold money systems have been formulas for deflation. This "blood stained money" had profound effects on Europe, forcing great structural changes, distributing wealth more broadly and creating a "Renaissance of the North" which the Reformation is usually given the credit for.

The Bank of England then Usurped England’s Money Power from the Crown in 1694, after Dutch William 3rd of Orange took over England. One of the founders William Paterson remarked:

"The very name of a bank or corporation was avoided, though the notion of both was intended, the proposers thinking it prudent that a design of this nature should have as easy and insensible a beginning as possible…But it was found convenient to put it to hazard and expose so much of the nature of the thing…as was needful to have it espoused in Parliament." (LSM, Ch. 11)

Until then England’s monetary power was in the Monarch’s hands. But from this point, bank of England credits – its notes and book credits – would be substituted in place of public money. This has promoted a confusion between credit, and money, to this day. But they are different things. Credit depends on the creditor remaining solvent. REAL MONEY DOES NOT PROMISE TO PAY SOMETHING ELSE.

Credit can legally be made into money, but it’s not itself money. Money is on a higher order than Credit. It is unconditionally accepted as payment. "Credit expands when there is a tendency to speculation, and sharply contracts just when most needed to assure confidence…," wrote Henry George.

Those behind the Bank of England obscured the real source of the Bank’s power – ITS LEGAL PRIVILEGE – its notes were accepted in payments to the government.

It recovered the science of money, but for the private profit of a small group not the whole nation.



Using the principles of money for private purposes produced harmful results: 120 years of near continuous warfare spawned an unpayable national debt leading to excessive taxation which led directly 13 to horrors such as the Irish Potato Famine. Before then, when a nation’s money system was used for taxation, the revenue generally aided the society at least in terms of what a Republic or King thought was needed. But private moneys like the Bank of England’s concentrated society’s resources into a few hands, crippling the possibility for government to function properly, leading to a growing contempt of government.

REGRESSION OF MONETARY THOUGHT

The inflow of blood stained metal from America held back monetary thought in metallism. Even so, the principles of the science of money re-emerged from time to time as in England’s 1601 Mixt Moneys case, or the writings in Bishop George Berkeley’s Querest in 1735.

BUT THEN IN 1776, THE FATHER OF ECONOMICS, ADAM SMITH, In 1776 in his Wealth Of Nations book took a giant leap backward and obliterated any concept of money in the law, by defining money this way:

"By the money price of goods it is to be observed, I understand always, the quantity of pure gold or silver for which they are sold, without any regard to denomination of the coin."

Smith regressed the concept of money backwards from being based in law, not just back to a level of unlimited coinage, but all the way back to pure metal by weight, where the concept of money was before the Romans arrived in England!

The Bank of England had advanced to abstract paper money 80 years earlier; not in theory, but in practice.

Adam Smith regressed to commodity money, not in practice, but in theory.

His theory applied to their practice caused confusion and created mystery to this day. (LSM, Ch. 12) Interestingly, Marx did no better.

We find that the modern 250 year attack on government originated largely in Adam Smith’s efforts to keep the monetary power within the Bank of England. Smith glorified the Bank and obscured its private ownership saying it functioned as "a great engine of state." He attacked government issued money.

"A revenue of this kind has even by some people been thought not below the attention of so great an Empire as that of Great Britain...But whether such a Government as that of England - which, whatever may be its virtues, has never been famous for good economy; which, in time of peace, has generally conducted itself with the slothful and negligent profusion that is perhaps natural to monarchies; and in time of war has constantly acted with all the thoughtless extravagance that democracies are apt to fall into - could be safely trusted with the management of such a project, 14 must at least be a good deal more doubtful." (Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations; p.358 – in the Great Books collection, vol. 39)

Smith’s insulting attacks on the English Government marks the modern beginning of a relentless attack on society - the belittling and smearing of its organizational form - government.

The single organization potentially able to block plutocracy’s encroachments. Smith also inadvertently illuminates the major purpose of this attack: - to keep the money power in private hands.

Every day we see examples of how this disease has reached epidemic proportions. It has spread from Hayek and Ayn Rand to their intellectual heir Rush Limbaugh and his propaganda radio. Its not entertainment. Its gone beyond politics and into treason.

The attack on government is serious enough, but it becomes really obnoxious when combined with THE ATTACK ON HUMANITY, as seen in

ADAM SMITH’S SELFISHISHNESS "ERROR"

Following Buckle's lead, George identified the false axiom on which Smith’s Wealth of Nations is based:

"Buckle's understanding of Political Economy was that it eliminated every other feeling than selfishness." Wherein Smith ‘generalizes the laws of wealth, not from the phenomena of wealth, nor from statistical statements, but from the phenomena of selfishness; thus making a deductive application of one set of mental principles to the whole set of economical facts. He everywhere assumes that the great moving power of all men, all interests and all classes, in all ages and in all countries is selfishness…indeed Adam Smith will hardly admit common humanity into his theory of motives.’" (SPE, 89, 90)

Consider the negative impact on humanity of Smith’s selfishness assumption: Supporters of his doctrine argue that it is merely in harmony with human nature. But clearly, if Man is defined in such a base manner and systems of laws with their rewards and punishments are enforced along those lines, then over time, they will tend to create a form of humanity in "harmony" with their false conception of an economic mankind.

This de-evolutionary process, encouraging a lower form of humanity has been ongoing especially in the English speaking world for well over 2 centuries. The work of great English novelists 15 such as Charles Dickens or great philosophers like Bishop George Berkeley may have slowed it, but didn’t stop it.



Henry George saw exactly where it would lead:

"Nor can we abstract from man all but selfish qualities in order to make as the object of our thought…what has been called ‘economic man’, without getting what is really a monster, not a man." (SPE, 99) Ecco Homo - circa 2000!

OUR AMERICAN EXPERIENCE contains many of the best "case studies" for understanding money. We have been a great monetary laboratory - every conceivable solution was tried at some time, and we’ve been a paper money nation from Colonial days. Our development was inseparable from it - without it there’d be no United States.

English and Dutch laws forbade sending coinage to the colonies, placing them in continual distress. The intent was to extract raw materials, not for the colonists to trade with each other. An early form of globalization. The Colonies had to devise monetary innovations. (LSM, Ch. 14 & 15)

In the country pay period (1632 – 92) 17 different commodities were monetized by law at specified prices. It didn’t work - everyone wanted to pay with the least desirable commodity, in the worst condition.

1633 - Virginia and Maryland monetized tobacco, issuing warehouse receipts for it. A bumper crop in 1639. Half crop was burned; debts were reduced 60%

XXX Pine Tree COINS

1652 – Hull’s mint in Massachusetts stamped the gold and silver "tree coinage." But it quickly flowed to England and was melted down.

Private land banks were set up but were shunned by the colonists, who considered money a prerogative of government, as it was in England until 1694.

XXX Mass bill of Credit

Then in 1690, 4 years before the Bank of England, Massachusetts embarked on a radical course and issued paper bills of credit, spending them into circulation. Rather than a promise to pay anything, they were a promise to receive them back for all payments to the commonwealth. The colony thrived. Other colonies copied them and INFRASTRUCTURE arose.

XXX Franklin

In 1723 Pennsylvania’s system loaned the bills into circulation, charging interest on them and using it to pay colonial expenses. Ben Franklin wrote: 16

"Experience, more prevalent than all the logic in the World, has fully convinced us all, that paper money has been, and is now of the greatest advantages to the country."

In Franklins’s words, one detects a tension even then, between theoretical argument and practical experience, a continuing battleground in economics today.

SOME LONG LOST PRINCIPLES OF THE SCIENCE OF MONEY QUICKLY RESURFACED:

* Money need not have intrinsic value; its nature is more of an abstract legal power than a commodity.

* Accepting the government paper back in taxes was the key feature needed to give it circulating value.

* The quantity of money in circulation had to be regulated to maintain its value.

* They observed that paper money helped build real infrastructure.

* Most importantly, the colonies did not issue more money than their legislatures authorized. They have an outstanding record issuing currency.

Of over a hundred colonial issues I found only one case of fraud. In Virginia, a Mr. Robertson who was supposed to be burning the old notes as new ones were printed, was giving them to friends instead.

BUT IN THE BATTLE FOR MONETARY DOMINANCE THE COLONIAL MONETARY experience has been miscast as irresponsible inflation money.



This was the result of 18th century Boston’s medical Dr. William Douglas’ inaccurate writings. The error was corrected by Alexander Del Mar in 1900 in The History of Money in America, but was ignored. It was authoritatively cleared up again by Professor Leslie Brock in 1976 and again ignored. Many economists, and especially the libertarians still haven’t got the message that colonial government paper money was crucial in building the colonies.

In 1764, England’s Lords of Trade and Plantations prohibited all colonial legal tender issues, and that became the underlying cause of the American Revolution, not some tax on tea.

XXX Continental Currency

We have already discussed how CONTINENTAL CURRENCY became the lifeblood of the revolution.

OUR CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION CONSIDERED TWO GRAND THEMES OF HUMANITY.

First whether mankind could be self-governing or had to be ruled by authority. Often referred to as the American experiment. We are still learning the outcome, and one of the reasons it’s still in doubt is because of the way the Convention mishandled the other grand theme – which was over the nature money. 17

By the time of the Convention, the great benefits of the Continentals was nearly ignored; along with much of the rest of our hard won monetary experiences. Some wanted to emphasize that the Continentals became worthless and rejected the idea of paper money altogether.

They ignored that paper money was crucial in giving us a nation; that abstract money requires an advanced legal system in place; that the normal method of assuring its acceptability is to allow the taxes to be paid in it. Then there was the matter of a WAR against the world’s strongest power.

The convention met from May to September 1787 but the money subject didn’t come up until August 16. Remember, Jefferson and Paine were not there. Franklin was too old to speak.

XXX Witherspoon

A curious book on money appeared just then, written anonymously by Calvinist Minister John Witherspoon, – the only clergyman signer of the declaration of Independence. The book attacked Government money and promoted Adam Smith’s view that only gold and silver are money. He stonewalled our hard won colonial monetary experience.

The power for government to properly create money, long considered as a necessary part of sovereignty, was contained in 5 magic words – to emit bills of credit. This provision was already in the articles of Confederation, but the Federalists - the merchant/commercial interest, largely responsible for calling the Constitutional Convention in order to strengthen the national government, fought to exclude this monetary power, from the new government, arguing that it could not be trusted with it! Some of them intended to get hold of the power privately as had been done in England.

THE SUPREME IMPORTANCE of the concept of money now becomes evident: For if money is primarily a commodity, convenient for making trades, which obtains its value out of "intrinsic" qualities, then it could be viewed more as a creature of merchants and bankers than of governments.

But if the true nature of money is an abstract social institution embodied in law – obtaining its value largely through legal sanctions, then its more a creature of governments, and the Constitution had better deal with it adequately. Describing how a uniform currency is to be provided, controlled and kept reasonably stable, in a just manner. It was on this crucial question that the Constitutional Convention faltered.

The delegates accepted Adam Smith’s primitive commodity definition of money as gold and silver and didn’t firmly place the monetary power into government, leaving it ambiguous. Later they’d argue over what they had done.

But the power would still exist, since it is as important as the legislative, judicial and executive powers.

I am suggesting that the nature of human affairs requires government to have four branches, not three; the fourth branch to embody and administer the monetary power. 18

The Constitution trusted the people with the political power; but didn’t firmly place the monetary power in their government. This (along with slavery) is the Original Sin of American Politics!

As a result the power was left up for grabs. Alexander Hamilton wasted no time in "grabbing."

My neighbor Martin Van Buren 8th US President wrote a great book on the Convention – The Origin of Political Parties in the US. He spent time with Jefferson – discuss.

SECTION END

SECTION START

HOW PRIVATE CENTRAL BANKING BEGAN IN AMERICA

Hamilton And The Money Power Attack – First The Bond Theft as related by Van Buren.

The Constitution went into effect in late 1789; Van Buren described Hamilton’s first move as Secretary of the Treasury, in 1790:

"Hamilton assumed some $15 million of the state debts...an act...neither asked nor desired by the states, unconstitutional and inexpedient…"

What was so bad about it?

"A large proportiion of the domestic debt (was held by) the soldiers who fought our battles, and the farmers, manufacturers and merchants who furnished supplies for their support....When it became known to members of Congress, which sat behind closed doors, that the bill would pass...every part of the country was overrun by speculators, by horse, and boat, buying up large portions of the certificates for (pennies on the dollar)." (LSM, Ch. 15)

Madison, attempted to have the law pay speculators less than the original holders, but was voted down.

NEXT HAMILTON AND ASSOCIATES, HAVING KEPT THE MONETARY POWER Out of government hands, moved to assume it themselves. The Bank of North America was the only bank in the US, formed in Pennsylvania on Tom Paines initiative to assist the revolution. Arguing that it was only a state bank, Hamilton suggested it come forward if it wanted to alter itself for the national purpose. Curiously, the Bank took no steps toward this obvious increase in profit and power.

Hamilton’s Federalists quickly put through legislation to charter the First Bank of The United States, as a privately owned central bank on the Bank of England model. The Bank would be issuing paper notes not really backed by metal, but pretending to be redeemable in coinage, on the one condition that not a lot of people asked for redemption! They really did not have the coinage. The bank would do what they had blocked the government from doing! Print paper money. 19

Thus the real question in practice was whether it would be private banks or the government that would create paper money. Will the immense power and profit of issuing currency go to the benefit of the whole nation, or to the private bankers? That’s always been the real monetary question in this country.

XXX BANK OF US NOTE

While gold and silver served as a smoke-screen, what the bankers really counted on, were the legal considerations of the money. They knew that all that was needed to give their paper notes value, was for the government to accept them in payment for taxes. That, and not issuing too excessive a quantity of them. Under those conditions, the paper notes they printed out of thin air, would be a claim on any wealth existing in the society.

And we see why the Bank of North America was not put forward for this purpose: the U.S. Government had owned 60% of it. Thomas Willing resigned the Presidency of the Bank of North America, to become President of the first Bank of The U.S. The government would only own 20% of the new bank.

JUST WHERE DID THE MONEY FOR FIRST BANK OF THE U.S. CAME FROM?

The $10 million share subscription for the banks shares, was oversubscribed within 2 hours. Less than 1/10 of it was ever paid in gold. The rest of the payment was accepted in the form of bonds – the very government bonds that Hamilton had turned from pennies on the dollar to full value. So you see where the money for the bank actually came from – from the American people! THAT’S HOW PRIVATE CENTRAL BANKING STARTED IN AMERICA!

Even if the bank had "faithfully" stuck to gold and silver, the nation’s monetary power would still have been alienated to the east - to the European holders of those commodities. Same people we’d just fought the revolution against!

Thanks to Jefferson’s efforts, the bank was liquidated in 1811. Three quarters of it was found to be owned by Europeans – English and Dutch. (LSM, Ch. 15)

THE 2ND BANK OF THE U.S. - THE BANK FROM HELL Operated illegally from inception, accepting IOU’s instead of the required gold in payment for its shares. So again the banker’s gold "requirement" turned out to be a masquerade.

This private central bank immediately embarked on a wild monetary expansion. Beginning operations in April 1817, by July it had 19 branch offices and had created $52 million in loans on its books and an additional 9 million in circulating currency, based on gold and silver coin reserves of only $2.5 million. This tremendous expansion caused a wild speculative boom. 20

Then in August 1818, the bank turned abruptly and began an insane contraction, causing the panic of 1819. It cut its outstanding loans and advances from a high of $52 million, down to $12 million in I819. Its circulating notes dropped from $10 million to $3.5 million in 1820. A massive wave of bankruptcies swept the nation.

The subsequent history of this bank and its fight to the death with President Jackson reads like a financial soap opera. The story of various state chartered banks is similar.

MEANWHILE THE US GOVERNMENT ACTED RESPONSIBLY

In the aftermath of liquidation of the first and second Banks, the US Treasury notes were responsibly substituted in place of banknotes. About $65 million were authorized and only $37 million actually issued. The U.S. Treasury spent them into circulation. Initially they were all large denomination, paid interest; were redeemable in gold and required formalities to transfer. By 1815 they became bearer certificates with no redemption date, paid no interest and were in smaller denominations. Thus they were nearly a true money form. The fact is that the US government has always acted responsibly in creating money. Not so the private banks!

SECTION END

SECTION START

APPLYING THESE CONCEPTS TO MONETARY REFORM NOW

APPLYING THESE CONCEPTS TO MONETARY REFORM NOW

APPLYING THESE CONCEPTS TO MONETARY REFORM NOW

The definitional problem continues – gold is not much discussed and bank credits are openly substituted for money.

Economists are now confusing credit with money. They call money "high powered money" and they are calling credit "Lower powered money."

They should be more forcefully distinguishing between credit, and money. Blurring the difference empowers the bankers.

They should be examining the unfair privilege this system places in the bankers hands and

They should be examining the results. For example The deteriorating infrastructure situation – see Engineers report in the Lost Science of Money, ch. 24

A GREAT DANGER: THE PURPOSEFUL DE-FUNDING OF GOVERNMENT at the local, state and federal levels, arises out of this disease of attacking government as the enemy. Carl Rove said he wants to shrink government to a small enough size to be able to drown it in a bathtub. He is one of Mr. Bush's religiously oriented advisors. Unfortunately the atheistically oriented Libertarians hold a similar view. My friend Douglas Casy while recently chairman of the Libertarian Party Presidential Committee remarked that he didn't see any need for government at all. 21

ACHIEVING MONETARY REFORM NOW? It’s a bit different For America and England. In broad terms

America needs to:

First: Nationalize the Federal Reserve, place it within the Treasury. Long term it becomes an independent fourth branch of Government. We use the greenback mechanism initially to fund infrastructure improvement and repair. The American Society of Civil Engineers 1998 Report estimates that $2 trillion will be needed. Much more is required to assure water supplies. This immediately starts solving all sorts of economic problems including unemployment.

Second: Remove the privilege banks have to create money. Only government should have this power. This means much more than requiring banks to have 100% reserves. A special 100% reserve solution elegantly transforms all previously bank created money into U.S. created money. This does not cause deflation or inflation.

Third: Institute anti-deflationary programs to assure that sufficient money is introduced by government into the system.

Your job in England is much easier – you have already nationalized the central bank BUT CLEARLY

YOU MUST NOW COMPLETE THE 1942 INITIATIVE OF ARCHBISHOP WILLIAM TEMPLE, which led to that nationalization. HERE IS A QUOTE FROM TEMPLE's BOOK :

"In the case of money, we are dealing with something which is handled in our generation by methods that are extremely different from those in vogue a century or half century ago. When there was a multitude of private banks, the system by which credit was issued may have perhaps been appropriate, but with the amalgamation of the banks we have now reached a stage where something universally needed - namely money, or credit which does duty for money - has become in effect a monopoly…

The private issue of new credit should be regarded in the modern world in just the same way in which the private minting of money was regarded in earlier times. The banks should be limited in their lending power to the amount deposited by their clients, while the issue of newer credit should be the function of public authority.

This is not in any way to censure the banks or bankers. They have administered the system entrusted to them with singular uprightness and ability and public spirit. But the system has become anomalous, and, as so often happens when anomaly has persisted through a long period of time, the result is to make into the master what ought to be the servant." Reverend William Temple, Archbishop of Canterbury, September 26, 1942

The Bank of England was nationalized in 1946, but the Archbishops intent was sidestepped: 22

If you want your banking system to be the servant of your society instead of its master, then "The banks should be limited in their lending power to the amount deposited by their clients, while the issue of newer credit should be the function of public authority."

How do you go about this? You can:

Wait for another crisis while having the legislation ready to go

Educate the populace on why this is important

Inform your leadership on the necessity for this through the early day motion – do a world class independent study which gets the facts regarding public vs private money on the table. Place the pressure on the banking establishment to justify this fantastic privilege which they enjoy, to the detriment of the entire nation.

WHAT WAS THE MORAL EFFECT OF BANKING ON THE EARLY US?

Here is what William Gouge, a banking expert wrote in 1833:

"Without clearly distinguishing the causes, men have come to see clearly the wealth passing continually out of the hands of those whose labor produced it, or whose economy saved it, into the hands of those who neither work nor save. They do not clearly see how the transfer takes place, but they are certain of the fact. In the general scramble they think themselves entitled to some portion of the spoil, and if they cannot obtain it by fair means, they take it by foul." "The Banking system is the principal cause of social evil in the United States." (It still is, in 2004!)

To summarize the argument: The nature of the money power is societally derived, not one originating in the activities of private corporations. Because of its great importance to all, control over the process belongs under public authority. Both logic and history show that its not safe to delegate this power, and certainly not acceptable to allow its usurpation.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

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Post by 1durphul » Sun Oct 03, 2010 9:17 pm

can't sit still wrote:I
...
usurpation.
Wow, longest post EVER!!! :-)

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Post by geekster » Sun Oct 03, 2010 10:56 pm

"Fiat money" isn't the cause of our problems. Canada has fiat money, but their banking sector isn't in flames in general and their mortgage industry in particular is sound. But their government doesn't use their home mortgage industry for social engineering. Sweden's economy has made a tremendous turn around and is growing at one of the fastest rates in Europe now that they have extracted their government from meddling so much. Estonia has a good economy, they have fiat money ... in fact, every country on the planet has fiat money ... every single one. NOBODY uses a fixed commodity standard anymore. There must be a reason for that. The fundamental reason is that you can't grow the economy any faster than you can grow the supply of gold or Latinum or whatever. If you have a fixed or declining supply of it, your economy can not grow.

It also turns economics into a zero sum game where in order to grow your economy relative to someone else's, you must accumulate the material in relation to them. In a world with a static or declining supply, one nation must get poorer for another nation to get richer. With fiat money you don't have that problem. What determines your nation's growth is the extent to which your government decide not to interfere.

Government can not produce wealth. Government manufactures nothing. It improves nothing. It only moves things around from one place to another. Mostly paper. A government can only stimulate an economy to the extent to which it held it back previously. It is like moderating the speed of an engine by riding the brake. You can only allow the engine to go faster now if you already have the brake on to begin with and can release it a little.

Any commodity-backed monetary standard is a bad idea because in order to work properly, everyone must use it. If you are the only one using it, you might as well back your currency with silly putty. Outsiders can manipulate your currency by manipulating the price of the underlying commodity. It is no skin off their nose because their currency isn't based on the commodity. If they want stuff they buy from you to be cheaper for them, they simply dump gold on the market, reduce the price of gold and thereby devalue your currency so their currency buys more of it. Only if everyone's currency is based on the same commodity does it make any sense. In that case, dumping gold on the market would devalue everyone's currency equally meaning there is no relative gain.

Now what happens when there is a major gold strike someplace. Suddenly the supply of gold is through the roof, the value of gold drops and your currency is devalued.

It doesn't work. It can't work. It has been tried. It has failed. It was tried again and it failed again. There is a *REASON* nobody uses it. And it isn't because they all hate CSS, want him to be poor, and are just greedy old bastards. It is because it just plain doesn't work.

I believe my own positions are probably best reflected by Professor Walter E. Williams (Economics, George Mason University)
Daily Bell: What is the difference between a conservative and neo-conservative, if any?

Walter Williams: (Laughing) I don't know. But conservatives, neo or otherwise, and liberals all believe it's all right for government to take the property of one person and give it to another. They prove H.L. Mencken's definition of an election as "...an advance auction on the sale of stolen property." Liberals believe in taking your money and giving it to poor people and poor cities. Conservatives believe in taking your money and giving it to farmers, banks and airlines. They both agree on taking our money, but they disagree on who should get it.

Daily Bell: Was George Bush a good president? Was he conservative? Are there any good presidents?

Walter Williams: Well my hero of all presidents, at least modern day presidents, is Grover Cleveland. He was the "Veto King." He vetoed more legislation than all presidents before him combined. His veto message to Congress often was that "this is not authorized by the United States Constitution." We don't hear presidents today vetoing acts of Congress because they are not authorized by the Constitution.

Few people appreciate how serious our Founding Fathers were about the Constitution. For example, James Madison is considered the Father of the Constitution. In 1794, when Congress appropriated $15,000 for the relief of French refugees who fled from insurrection in San Domingo to Baltimore and Philadelphia, James Madison stood on the floor of the House to object, saying "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents."

Now if you look at the federal budget, two-thirds to three-quarters of it is for benevolence, and it's been the same under all recent Presidents. Whether you are talking about foreign subsidies, bank bailouts, welfare programs, food stamps, Medicare or prescription drugs. There is no tooth fairy or Santa Claus giving the government the money; the only way the government can give one American citizen one dollar is to first take it from some another American. I think it's despicable. It's legalized theft.

Daily Bell: What is your opinion on America's present condition? Is it like Rome in the empire days?

Walter Williams: Yes. Rome? Spain? Portugal? France? They all went down the tubes for precisely the same reason. Bread and circuses! In 1892, if someone had suggested during Queen Victoria's Jubilee that England would become a 3rd-world power and be challenged on the high seas by a 6th-rate power such as Argentina, he would have been put into an insane asylum. But the British Empire went down the tubes for precisely what we are doing in our country now – what we have been doing for the past 50 years. Bread and circuses and big-government spending.

Daily Bell: Are we headed toward an international world government?

Walter Williams: I don't believe that's the case.

Daily Bell: How do you see the European Union. Will the EU survive?

Walter Williams: Milton Friedman predicted the EU would survive until one or two countries get into trouble. It looks like Greece and the PIGS are having some problems now. There is a real question as to whether the Portuguese and the Greeks will allow their domestic policy to be dictated by Germany.
I don't really follow or parrot his stuff so much as I reach many of the same conclusions independently myself and it feels quite validating to see someone with his stature in economics reach the same conclusions I have. That interview was published on August 1, 2010 and says the same things I have been saying for about the past two years now.

Fiat money isn't the problem. The problem is the government raiding YOUR pocket and blowing it on whatever fancies them this week.

The US government takes in about 1.15 trillion dollars in personal income taxes. The top 1% of taxpayers pay about 40% of that amount. So 99% of US taxpayers pay about 690 billion dollars in incomes taxes, which is about the same size as the $700 TARP spending. If the Congress wanted to provide a financial stimulus and ease the burden on the financial companies, they could have simply given 99% of the taxpayers in this country a one year hiatus from income taxes. If people had no income tax withheld, they could probably make their mortgage payments and not nearly so many homes would be in foreclosure.

NOTE: It is the STATE governments that DO have the right to use their taxes like a charity if they wish, but no such power is granted to the federal government. If a state wants government health care, cradle to grave welfare, etc. it is perfectly within its right to do so, but the federal government has no such power.
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Oct 04, 2010 7:49 am

I agree
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:01 am

How's that for short? :D
Gold backing is too limited. It does bring discipline but, at the cost of growth. The average life of a currency is 30--40 years. So, what's the cure for over-issue?
If I recall correctly, JFK started Viet-Nam to impress Khrushchev. That was the first item that eventually brought about Nixon's closing of the gold window. Up until that, gold prevented over-issue. I'm keeping it simple here.

Viet-Nam made a lot of money for the military-industrial-banking complex. They decided to run with the ball and overtly pursue empire. How do we stop grabs at empire?
I know "great society" and other programs were contributory.
We have a business model of mobocracy and war-profiteering.... simplified.
Not working out too well.
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Post by geekster » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:04 pm

You might find these interesting. It isn't opinion as much as a recounting of history.

Part 1 http://mises.org/daily/3325
Part 2 http://mises.org/daily/3402
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Oct 04, 2010 6:45 pm

Absolutely fascinating. Hard to believe that they shipped gold to New York for a 1 cent arbitrage. The moral of the story is that GREED will win the day. Part of our debt was in rebuilding Europe. Then, later GB knocks on the door of the treasury and demanded 2500 tons of gold. Even IF central bankers hold some kind of discipline, the private investors and private banks will blow it all to hell.
Thanks for the article.
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

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