The Long Cold Winter

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:06 pm

i can get those on craig's list, SLIGHTLY used for 25k.

it's a bare market.

d6 · Post by d6 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:10 pm

bastard!
always one step ahead.............

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Tue Jan 25, 2011 4:56 pm

You are clueless, Pollyanna. And, way off topic. Take it to the politics thread.

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Tue Jan 25, 2011 5:02 pm

tell it to tonetta, bitch.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:38 pm

Department of Labor is another department that can be completely abolished. It produces absolutely nothing.

In fact, abolish:

Veterans Affairs - Have defense dept handle that
Education - State function
Transportation - State function
HUD - State function
Labor - Not the role of government

Reduce:

Interior (keep national parks, turn BLM and Bureau of Reclamation to states)
Energy (keep functions related to nuclear energy, abolish the rest)
Homeland Security - Defense function

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:34 pm

Geekster, at the risk of stating the obvious. GOV does NOT want efficiency. Are you familiar with the aspects of Keynesian thought as they relate to the Hegelian dialectic? GOV taxes the crap out of the producing economy to grow it's family of sub-parasites even larger. These sub-parasites are thralls that must vote the government ticket for continued nourishment.
While I agree with your assessment, GOV is married to Hegel until the bitter end. As the private sector gets more efficient, GOV takes up the employment slack. This serves to keep the masses employed and also to promote a slow slide to a collectivist system. 50 % of the lawyers in the world are in America. Would you like GOV to just throw them into the street? What solution to you offer to the legions of paper pushers who are un-needed by private enterprise? Make-work jobs are the bread and butter of GOV.
All these things could be cut back but, where would the former employees go?

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:20 am

Most of the people who claim to support Keynesian economics have never read John Maynard Keynes. Few of those who HAVE read him, understand him because most Americans are illiterate when it comes to basic economics. They tend to parrot some line that feels somehow soothing to them without really understanding it ... sort of like the gold standard people.

Some of my favorite quotes of his are:

â€œThe ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.â€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Wed Jan 26, 2011 7:50 am

Geekster, Keynes wasn't always consistent in his claims. It's Hegel who bears close examination. I haven't the energy to dissect them at the moment,,, or the time. Here is an excellent paper from Mish that has a very telling examination of credit creation, the exponential function, and debt--GDP divergence.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... nomic.html
The classic debt spiral.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:11 am

eh ... Milton Friedman is all people need to read ... or even watch. There are plenty of his talks on youtube.

Actually, reading through Professor Williams' columns might be a good exercise:

http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/wew/articles.html

Professor of economics at George Mason University.

His book "Liberty vs. the Tyranny of Socialism" is a good one, too.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 1:26 am

Here we go!

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/ ... 6861.shtml

From that bastion of right-wing extremism, CBS:

Sick and getting sicker, Social Security will run at a deficit this year and keep on running in the red until its trust funds are drained by about 2037, congressional budget experts said Wednesday in bleaker-than-previous estimates.

The massive retirement program has been suffering from the effects of the struggling economy for several years. It first went into deficit last year but had been projected to post surpluses for a few more years before permanently slipping into the red in 2016

And to make matters worse, Obumbler just cut the social security payroll tax by 2%. Exactly the wrong thing to do at precisely the wrong moment to do it.

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:37 am

how about this....lets try to be civil from now on.

you dont call OUR president childish names and i wont call you a reactionary piece of shit conservative.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 8:56 am

Would you care to search through the "childish names" our last President was called in this board?

Belittling politicians is an American tradition as old as the country itself.

ADDED: And there is no way I am a conservative. I am libertarian. I do, however, see the Republicans as orders of magnitude less dangerous than the Democrats.

Or the last sentence holds true as long as the "progressive" uberliberal left wing controls the Democrats. But what we are seeing now is the party drifting deeper into left field with many center Democrats switching party. The latest was 9 Democrats in Lamar County, Texas that switched last week.

This is going way beyond national politics and is reaching deep into the local rank and file in just about every place but California.

Some like Andy NuÃ±ez of New Mexico did yesterday are simply leaving the party and going Independent. In the last couple of weeks there have been literally dozens of Democrat lawmakers and other political officials leaving the Democrats.

Russ Nowell of Lousiville was another than left last week.

The Republicans are apparently STILL gaining seats in legislatures around the country months after the election.

Now, that is not opinion. That is just what is happening. People are leaving the party in droves all across the country.

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:39 am

But take heart! A lapdog press is doing what it can to remake the image of Obama from an FDR to a Ronald Reagan:

Yet the truth is that we have the spirit of Jimmy Carter alive and well in Washington no matter how the press attempts to "spin" it this week.

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:57 am

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) has been one of the few GOP lawmakers willing to make good faith efforts to work with President Obama, especially on foreign policy issues. Most recently, Lugar aggressively lobbied to pass the New START nuclear arms treaty with Russia, and didnâ€™t hesitate to call out members of his own party who spread misinformation about the treaty.

Lugarâ€™s moderate stances and cooperation with the White House have earned him scorn from many conservatives, and tea party activists in Indiana are gearing up to field a primary challenger against Lugar in 2012. The senator has said he is ready for a challenge from his right, and this week, Lugar seemed to increase such a possibility by taking an opening shot at the tea party. As quoted by US News, Lugar said the conservative activists are â€œunhappy about life in America,â€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 1:13 pm

"you dont call OUR president childish names and i wont call you a reactionary piece of shit conservative"
Simon, you seem to be under the impression that your actions have an effect on what I write. DVD Burner told me that you were an intelligent guy. Yet, you've degenerated to critiquing my spelling errors and name calling. Is this all that you have to add to the discussion? Do you expect me to consider you to be relevant to the discussion?
Call me anything that you like. Marshall up all your socks. Your pixels are as nothing.
Wasted keystrokes. Bye

geekster · Post by **geekster** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 7:33 pm

I thought this was funny:

This week we have a crank duet, provided by Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne and US EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson. The shakiest of America's three domestic car companies, Chrysler, and the US Government are teaming up to bring the world something nobody asked forâ€”a non-electric hybrid mini-van. The company announced that it would partner with the US Environmental Protection Agency to build and test prototypes of a hybrid vehicle that accumulates energy not in a battery pack but by compressing a gas hydraulically. This could be final proof that both Chrysler and the EPA should be disbanded.

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content ... sa-jackson

This next one ... not quite so funny if you think about the sheer magnitude of the money wasted:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01/27 ... green-job/

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Thu Jan 27, 2011 8:03 pm

Back on topic. I'm trying to illustrate the basic problem in our economy. It's very difficult to make all the facts and figures into a picture. There is one factor and one factor only;
EMPLOYMENT
When agriculture was mechanized and automated, everyone had to move to manufacturing. Manufacturing has been automated and mechanized. Add in the outsourcing. Add in the rest of automation. All the printers, vending machines, assembly robots, etc, etc. Then, add in the software. It just keeps getting better. The applications reach farther and farther into every corner.
The precision of CNC processes is so great that new products are designed to lend themselves to CNC production.

The U.S. had a "lock" on manufacturing after WW II. We developed a very high standard of living. We borrowed 80 % of the savings worldwide to maintain this standard of living. Competition has yanked the rug out from under us. The central bank blew bubbles to try to extend the good life for the working man. Greenspan knew what he was doing. He blew a bubble in housing to keep Americans working in the only field that wouldn't be swept away to foreign factories. The FBI and the SEC warned about an approaching bubble. They had the RE fraud divisions cut by 99%. There was no "accident" in the bubble blowing.The last big bubble is getting ready to blow. Treasuries.

47 % of Americans are working full-time. http://dailybail.com/home/just-47-of-wo ... -jobs.html
OK, close your eyes and imagine how many Americans would be working if;
1. They brought back all the soldiers.
2. Closed all the foreign bases
3. Cut out the huge military weapons budget
4. Closed the various GOV departments that produce nothing.
5. Closed the domestic bases that are not needed for defense
6. Got rid all of the subsidies that allow American businesses to be globally competitive.
7. Cancel the war on drugs.
8. Cancel the war on terror

We have a certain accustomed wage standard. 78% of the economy is driven by the consumer. Imagine what the consumer economy would look like if Americans earned the wages of Easterners. Imagine what the tax base would be if much of the consumer economy was erased. Suppose we did away with the military-industrial complex and the wars on terror and drugs. What would we do with everybody???????????

1% of Americans work in farming. What are the other 99% going to do if they aren't busy waring? If we design an innovative product, it immediately escapes to a low-wage producer. I posted that South Carolina spends $ 36,000 for every mile of state highway all-inclusive. California spends $ 99,000 per mile just on administrative costs. There is only ONE way to interpret that. Ca pays paper-shufflers.

VERY FEW Americans are working. MANY are working in GOV make-work jobs. We ARE in a position to live in a world of plenty. We ARE NOT in a position to live in a world of high employment. The plan,,, "Social Credit" would give everyone sustenance. There is no possible plan that would bring high employment. We've automated ourselves out of a job. We've priced ourselves out of competition in the global market for manufacturing.
Call me a Neo-Luddite. The fact is, we've killed the jobs with efficiency. We've priced ourselves out of the market. Every recovery from a recession has been increasingly more "jobless". What does that say for the "long run"?
On another post, I wrote that everyone is confounded by the dearth of jobs created. Look at automation. Look at global-wage arbitrage. There isn't any surprise.

As fewer and fewer workers are needed,,,, as Western wages slip towards a par with Eastern wages, the purchasing power of the consumer will continue to diminish. These are market forces that NO politician can reverse. In the old days, a war would be started. The equipment used in war is SO expensive, war is no longer the cure. It's a new paradigm and GOV is operating on the OLD paradigm.

Everyone is starting to notice that there are NO effective policies coming out of our leaders. The PTB refuse to abandon the old power structures and the old paradigms.
Just as you look around and see no solution, you will continue to see no solution. How does one create jobs in a world enamored with labor-saving devices?

The private sector introduces efficiency. The public sector introduces in-efficiency to compensate for job losses. This is done to perpetuate a standard of living that is driving the country bankrupt. Morphing into a collectivist police state isn't going to bring jobs back. It will certainly reduce motivation though. The PTB are operating on obsolete paradigms. They aren't working.

Rabbi Dali Rick · Post by **Rabbi Dali Rick** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:12 am

Simple. We become a service oriented country, and the unemployed can just exist in the Matrix online in "Second life", they just stay on line, and will need a permit to interact in real life, from the "Office of Real Life".

There, problem solved. Now if we could just figure out how to make Playstations in the US...

the rebbi

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:33 am

CSS
my apologies.

i will try from now on to consider each post and source and reply without the usual vitriol.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:39 am

Rabbi, there was a sci-fi book many years ago that talked about device called a "Free-Faring". You lay down on a grid and your non-physical body is swept away to any corner of the universe that you desire. You had all your perceptions but, no physical presence. The device was so seductive that people would fail to come back in time to maintain their physical body,,, They died.
I don't really know if "second life" is that seductive or not. A sedentary life is quite destructive.
http://www.webscription.net/p-878-the-c ... orlds.aspx
There are some other parallel scenarios from sc-fi. There is one where, you're in a matrix sort-of womb. An interface / computer continually stimulates ALL of your pleasure centers. I plan to stick with the physical world.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 12:08 pm

Simon, it would be great if we all posted our beliefs and ideas without being "married" to them. I hold no animosity towards you. I don't get consumed by ideas, no matter how "elegant" they may appear. The "Global Cooling" thread is an attempt to air out all the ideas.
I hope that the larger audience will fill in ANY gaps and contest ANY inaccuracies. Flames make newbies very nervous. They may have something valuable to add. I have no interest in deception. Also, I have no interest in burying the ugly side of life out of view.
We're far less susceptible to manipulation if we know the truth. I espouse the truth regardless of it's origin. The zigs and zags that come before the truth are all useful.
Truth,, Peace,,

Rabbi Dali Rick · Post by **Rabbi Dali Rick** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 1:02 pm

awww aren't you two just the cutest...

the rebbi

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:49 am

don't make me break out my Flying Kosher Sabbath Monkeys, Rod Carew.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:05 pm

In the post above, I tried to make the case that GOV produces lot of make-work jobs. The big fear of GOV is "disaffected youth". Why do you think that obama et al came up with the idea of universal national service for young adults?
http://www.nationalserviceact.org/
As pensions disappear, more and more of the elderly will continue to work. There will be fewer and fewer slots for the young. Youth unemployment is very high in many countries,,,, usually above 20%. The disaffected youth have a lot of energy and no outlet,,, no jobs. They are plenty pissed off;

The worst thing that a GOV can do is to put somebody "their back to the wall". The wildfire from Tunisia is spreading;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... et_29.html
Whether or not, they have legitimate cause doesn't matter at this point. They don't have jobs.
Things will get worse. Their birthrate is too high. The first guy who lit himself on fire worked selling vegetables in the souk. He had 8 kids. Job niches are disappearing everywhere.

The advance of robots will only make the situation worse;
http://www.fujipress.jp/finder/xslt.php ... 010005.xml

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_o ... archtype=a

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/robot ... bots_N.htm

There is no solution for the efficiency of automation.
Geithner says that he's not worried about inflation. That's fine, he doesn't pay 50---70 % of his salary for food.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... 04050.html
It appears that a lot of people are not aware of looming problems.

The other issue is our credit rating. A couple of months ago, Moody's said that America would get downrated at some time in the future. Now, they've bumped up the date for downrating. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-2 ... rtens.html
This will drive up interest rates. It will also force many institutional investors to unload bonds. Their bylaws don't allow them to hold bonds that are below a certain rating.

Just to make sure that everyone in GOV is on the same page, the Congressional Budget Office has just released their report. They're obviously smoking crack. One small quote;
"They expect total revenues to rise 43% in the next 2 years alone and 129.6% over the coming decade"
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... crack.html
Just remember, these people hold your future in their hands.
The IMF has warned us to quit borrowing;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011 ... is-warning
The U.S. has no intention of cutting back;
http://dailyreckoning.com/us-continues- ... -in-sight/
We can't possibly quit borrowing. We borrow today to service the loans of yesterday.
Sumptens gotta give.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:27 pm

This is copied from a paper by the Tanzanian Royalty exploration Corporation. It is a very interesting view on Bernanke's printing and the resultant inflation.

"CIGA Pedro clearly outlines how the demise of the dollar is the demise of much more. Greenspan gave away more than anyone knows.

Gold is your only insurance policy against things we cannot control regardless of the wild fluctuation of the price. We must be our own central bank.

Inflation Inflation Everywhere and Not a Drop to Drink

At last, the doubters have nowhere to hide. The world is starkly revealed as an interconnected political economy force, and not as a disparate grouping of various nations, some authoritarian, some choosing democratically agreed upon policies, creating policy choice and thereby shaping of political outcome. Greece, Ireland, Tunisia, and now, the fulcrum of the Arab world, Egypt, stand as testimony. They are countries caught up in the machinations of a monetary policy to debase the world's reserve currency.

All "he" wanted was some inflation, a little inflation to get America and the west out of the deflationary spiral caused by the failure of financial instruments (a.k.a. OTC Derivatives) and un-payable government debt - but he can't get it. Everywhere it rages, but the place he wants it - home. So it erupts in global food prices and manifests itself in the attempts to bail out stone dead banks on the backs of the marginal economic player - post-destruction of the middle class. Most of the world has no savings to get through difficult times. Most of the world cannot "hedge" inflationary outcomes. Those outcomes appear quickly and change realities violently. The inflationary reality is their reality - the difference between starvation and survival. The result? Global upheaval, leading to where, we are not sure... but probably nowhere nice. Think American monetary policy was a uniquely sovereign, American affair? Think again. You are watching QE II live on television. American monetary policy and the global "race to debase" is that raging crowd you see on the television from Ireland to Greece and Egypt. It is that nascent force which Chinese leaders awake in terror, wondering what a billion plus people might do if faced with stark choices. If you can't make the connection between the monetary policy and the political reality, you need to change the causal way you look at the world.

Nations hold dollars in reserve to meet the demands of running an economy. When debasement takes place, the marginal economic player gets hit first. This is what we see now. But there is another, geo-political aspect many are missing. The western attempts to control multiple political outcomes and a global geo-political/military order rests on the ability to finance and control that order. When the money gets degraded, the ability to finance that order goes with it. Degradation of currency inhibits foreign force projection, both militarily and politically. Nobody in Egypt believes America is capable of controlling political outcomes, as they did from Suez to Mubarak. That era has passed. It passed with the Shah of Iran, and the death of the widely despised (in Egypt) Anwar Sadat. The Mubarak intermezzo is over. In the Arab world, what happens in Egypt doesn't stay in Egypt. The potential for "regime change" in Saudi Arabia is growing. Now we find that the financial necessity for Dollar debasement wasn't as politically benign as people in Washington thought. Instability rages across a region that could usher in an era of global conflict.

People say, "be careful what you wish for" when you talk about the end of western hegemony, but while the political hegemony is dying by the hour, the monetary hegemony is currently intact and its results are evident. When those results swing full circle and return to the west, currency upheaval will be guaranteed. Global system breakdown, which made its debut in 2008 is now back for its main act. Money printing didn't quite work out the way it was supposed to. This time, a rush to the security of Treasury instruments is unlikely to be the fallback position for global capital that now sees Fed monetary policy as a destructive boomerang cutting inflationary swathes across the planet... en route to its place of origin.
CIGA Pedro

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 8:02 am

This is an article by Edwin Vieira. The guy has 4 degrees from Harvard. That would indicate that he has closely examined the past. He writes about our 2 big problems; financial collapse and the police state. In his opinion, the complete implementation of the police state is more dangerous than the financial collapse. He doubts that we can avoid either. The article is a great read. The comments are interesting. As usual, the comments by Bill Ross are superb.
http://www.thedailybell.com/724/Edwin-V ... kdown.html

BTW, the economics dept at Harvard was completely taken by surprise by the collapse. The Harvard endowment fund lost $ billions. The dumb shits shouldn't have been looking inward. They should have looked at the Austrian school of economics. THEY had correctly predicted the fall of both Russia and Japan.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Wed Feb 02, 2011 10:19 am

This is an excellent article talking about Bernanke stuck in a "loop" where he believes in everything that he does. He has lots of logic but, no common sense. WE are going along for the ride.
"Bernanke will drive us all to ruin, pushing ever harder on the gas pedal and repeating, â€œI must act, I must act, I must actâ€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Feb 04, 2011 9:06 pm

I've posted a ton of stuff about the accumulated national debt. Here's another file.
" Let me state that again, ...$3.3 trillion in 81 months
followed by $5 trillion in 39 months....Hello? How can any sane financial,
academic, military, spiritual, or political leader look at these numbers and
honestly convince those who are listening to them that â€œthe recovery is gathering
steamâ€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:23 pm

All money is debt-money. When you pay off a loan, you destroy money. Loans are currently being destroyed rather than payed back. This too, destroys money. Bernanke rides to the rescue with his printing press. But, all that created money is debt. It has no value.

"After careful examination, it becomes evident that debt does not fuel economy, it suffocates it. It does not nurture growth, it stunts and poisons it. Extreme debt is not a fundamental organ in a body of commerce; it is an aberration, a spreading cancer which disrupts the circulation of healthy trade"
"America was awash in credit, to the point that it was nearly impossible for the average person to avoid the temptation of borrowing. What we didnâ€™t understand then, but are beginning to grasp now, is that credit derived from fiat is not â€œcapitalâ€

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:44 pm

This is an excellent article by Martin Weiss. He explains the phenomenon of rising interest rates on bonds at the same time that bond value is crashing;
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-most ... -all-42612
Evidently, few people understand this.

The Long Cold Winter

go suck a dick...