The Long Cold Winter

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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:21 pm

Apparently, GOV is in a debt-trap when it comes to bond issue;
"Just doing the math tells us this will require a US Bond issuance of one maturity or another of almost $16 Billion A DAY"
http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... o-zimbabwe
We used to get by on about $ 2 billion a day. We will soon be paying 50 % of GDP for bond service.
Now, Bernanke has warned against making sharp budget cuts :?: :?: :?:

The bond market is NOT happy with Bernanke;
http://www.philstockworld.com/2011/02/0 ... nt=Twitter

GOV is sucking all the investment money into U.S. bonds with little left over for private enterprise.
Obummer seems to be following the path of Roosevelt. It was a bust last time and it will be a bust again;
http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/ ... 226ED0211C

Ron Paul believes that our collapse will be worse than the collapse in Russia;
http://www.dailypaul.com/156527/ron-pau ... nt=Twitter

There are others who say that it will eventually be far worse than Great Depression I. Considering that the banks are screwing us to save their asses, I don't doubt it.

Found it;

"World famous investor Harry Schultz recently published the last issue of his legendary financial newsletter.
After 45 years, the following is how Schultz summed up the economic collapse that we are now facing….

“Roughly speaking, the mess we are in is the worst since 17th century financial collapse. Comparisons with the 1930’s are ludicrous. We’ve gone far beyond that. And, alas, the courage & political will to recognize the mess & act wisely to reverse gears, is absent in U.S. leadership, where the problems were hatched & where the rot is by far the deepest.â€
I don't post things because I believe that they are the absolute truth. I post them because I believe that they should be considered.

can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:06 am

Jim Willie has a great paper showing rising prices in many areas. U.S. GOV is showing GDP growth because more money is changing hands. Willie points out that consumers are paying more for the same amount of stuff. GOV interprets this increase in money as a growth in GDP. It is simply price inflation, NOT GDP growth.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1297285200.php

Smith has a lot to say about how bogus the whole system is. He points out that Marx understood but Keynes did not; you can't unwind the system.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Feb 12, 2011 4:11 pm

Y'all can't say that I didn't try to warn you. Here are a couple of quotes from the Bank of International Settlements. It is the central bank to central bankers.
" Debt will explode
(the correct word!) from 62 percent of GDP to an estimated 100 percent of GDP by the end of
2011 or soon thereafter. The authors don’t mince words. "

OK,,,, end of 2011, debt will be 100 % of GDP.
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploa ... 021111.pdf
That means that everything that is needed to operate GOV will have to be borrowed. When the bond market demands higher interest, it is "game over".

Martin Armstrong is an interesting guy. He and his colleagues built a computer / program that he named "Socrates". It ran 23,000 variables. He was an economics professor at Princeton. His accuracy was so good that GOV demanded his machine. He refused and GOV threw him in prison for 6 years. He says that Socrates self-destructed.
His system used very long-term data and canceled out much of the "noise". He continued to refuse so, GOV gave him 15 more years of prison. He was recently refused parole.
Armstrong claims that we have passed a tipping point. I would be the last to argue with him.
http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpre ... 3-2011.pdf

This article claims that hyperinflation is a given. GOV has no way or method to remove all the extra money that the FED printed.
The GOV and banks claim that the monetary inflation would NOT cause price inflation. GOV only wanted price inflation in Assets and Housing. Obviously, it didn't work out that way. There is no possibility of causing RE inflation while wages are going down. As obvious as this seems, it seems to have escaped Bernanke. Here are some price hikes.
* heating oil +41%
* copper +59%
* silver +91%
* palladium +212%
* corn +91%
* wheat +79%
* cotton +143%


http://www.economicnoise.com/2011/02/11 ... ce-to-pay/
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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:08 pm

OK, so we're currently borrowing $ 16 billion a day. The Pres has a plan. He will cut $ 400 billion over the next 10 years.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20110213/twl ... d0ae9.html
OK, we borrow $ 16 B a day and he's going to cut $ 40 B a year. I haven't heard a Plan B.

Just imagine that that you drive away from your house one morning. There is a rope of unknown length tied to the tree in your front yard. You tie the other end of this rope to your neck and drive away.
The bond market is the rope. Sooner or later comes the "big jerkoff" :lol:
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:24 am

This is an interesting article talking about the depression days that inspired Steinbeck to write "The Grapes of Wrath". It compares current conditions to conditions in the 30s.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=10725

There is a lot of talk about budget cuts. In the end, cuts will only diminish the amount of money in circulation. "As much as I would like to believe these budget cuts will somehow erode the corporate collectivist state, it appears they will only cause more suffering to a good many people who had nothing to do with creating the suffocating national debt."
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/02/eng ... lapse.html

The West spends more than it produces. The money powers take far too big a chunk of the wealth that is created. There just isn't enough left over for a decent standard of living for those who don't control the wealth.
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Feb 14, 2011 7:42 pm

Within several months, debt service will take 100 % of GDP. All GOV operations will be done on borrowed money. The bond market will take notice that there is no wealth being produced that isn't being vacuumed up by GOV. The debt can only be serviced by "new" money coming into the system. Getting nervous, the bond buyers will hold out for higher interest. The interest on 10 year notes has climbed 47% in the last several months. Bond buyers are getting nervous.

Everyone in Christendom [ and the Japanese too ] is screaming that treasury bonds are in a bubble. As the estimates for the total debt this year gradually rise towards $ 2 trillion, the bond investors will see that it is time to head for the exits. The West has had high inflation for decades. Asset prices have a huge cumulative inflated price built in. When investors desert the bond market, they can only run to emerging markets, cash or commodities.

This article lays out a scenario for a mass exodus from bonds into commodities.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08 ... -will.html
The guy gives a good explanation of how this causes hyperinflation in commodities.
It isn't a pretty picture. People will liquidate whatever they have to survive. This drives down all asset classes except durable necessities and consumables.

The inflation rate for basic food products is showing 50% inflation in 6 months. The graph looks like the the side of Mt. Fuji. GOV printed up trillions hoping to lift RE prices,, STUPID. RE was / is so over-inflated that NOTHING could lift prices. The excess money flowed into tangibles because all other asset classes were already super-inflated by GOV.
First, precious metals took off. When they jumped, it showed the relative worth of the dollar. As QE took hold, a flight into tangibles showed that investors had no faith in instruments. How long will commodities continue to absorb all the hot money?
"When did the index really take off? Last July. Why then? That's when the realization was made that QE2 was coming. Will it continue rising? As long as QE continues? Will QE ever end? No. It can't."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... rdingly-ii

GOV would collapse in a minute if QE stops. QE III is in the works.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb11/QE3 ... -2-11.html
This will push commodities far higher. Commodity demand is growing in spite of the price hikes. Mother Nature has chosen this moment to insure that commodity demands remain VERY high;
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/world ... &seid=auto
Oil will not climb as high as food commodities. There is currently a glut of oil. People will cut back as prices rise. Food commodities will rise WAY up. GOVs will collapse,,, people will die.

By the end of summer, commodity price hikes will cause riots worldwide. The food and fuel hikes will freeze-out other segments of the consuming economy. As the producing economy screeches to a halt, the bond market will grind to a stop. GOV will have no funding for it's operations.
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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:01 am

2-1=1 This seems fairly straightforward. When GOV says this,,,,, you can't believe them.
We frequently hear that the deficit increased,,,say $ 100 billion. But then, a check of the total debt clock shows an increase of ,,,, say $ 150 billion. So, what gives?

Recently, the BIS said that debt would increase to 100 % of GDP by the end of 2011,,,, or shortly thereafter. http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploa ... 021111.pdf
Next, you hear Tiny Tim say that debt-service costs are set to triple;
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-1 ... ecord.html
OK,,, one is total debt and the other is debt-service. David Walker, the comptroller-general said for several years that he couldn't certify that the "books" were honest.

Tiny Tim is being too optimistic saying that debt cost will triple by 2016. Another part of the problem is that we don't have a 2011 budget. It never passed. We're operating on a "stopgap spending law". I don't expect D.C. to get it together this year either.
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Feb 16, 2011 8:16 pm

Big, Bad Bald, Ban Bernanke is printing $ trillions to keep the cost of borrowing down. Interest is going up anyway. Every 1 % rise in interest costs an additional $ 100 billion in debt service. It went from 2.14 % to 3.76 %. It isn't much yet.
Things are falling aparet faster than anticipated.
"The CBO released a report disclosing that the net cash flow for the Social Security trust fund -- excluding interest received from the book entry bonds it holds in U.S. debt -- will be negative $56 billion in 2011, and for every year hence even more so. This is the train wreck that was supposed to happen in 2020. It is upon us now."
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/ ... aring.html

There was also a revision in employment statistics;
"a decline from previously reported employment in December 2010 of nearly 500,000 jobs, and a reduction in the workforce of a similar amount. "

It's not just the U.S. "First, temporarily bailing out Wall Street and now they are doing the same for the US Treasury. They are being copied by the UK, Europe, China and many other countries worldwide, all of which are destined to meet the same ignoble end."
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalF ... 867320.php

Here are some vids and statistics;
http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... o-zimbabwe
They mention a few options. ALL of them are bad.
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:33 pm

Centuries ago, the majority of people had very little disposable income. The industrial revolution changed all of that. People became much more productive. There was more money circulating. Over time sales were done more and more by companies / corporations and less and less by artisans.

Today, most production and sales is done by corporations. Because of monopoly power, more and more goods are sold for a price that is FAR above cost. The excess profits are invested in more production rather than in wages.
After WW II, the U.S. had 3 % of the population and 50 % of the world's manufacturing capacity. We saved a lot of money from doing a lot of production.

As we went into the 70s, the world had rebuilt much of it's productive capacity. By 1971, wages had stagnated. Our productivity is / was growing like crazy. From '45 to '71, the economy had grown from necessities stuff to include a huge market for gadgets. The consumer economy consisting of necessities and gadgets comprised 72 % of the total economic consumption.
Since wages were stagnant, the gadget part was diminishing. To keep the consumer economy powered-up in the face of stagnant wages, cheap credit was force-fed to the system.
Foreign competition gave us gadgets at a lower price but diminished our employment. GOV came to the rescue with GOV-borrowing$ to give lots of GOV jobs,,, on credit. We bought gadgets on private credit and many people bought gadgets with earnings paid for with public credit.

The corporations were making huge profits and banking them rather than paying higher wages. We maintained gadget consumption with credit. The corporations plowed more money into gadget making for us consumers. Since the corporations put their excess earnings into instruments rather than into wages, our consumptive power was steadily falling. Credit has crashed and gadget consumption is falling off. The consumption spiral causes a production spiral,,, self-reinforcing.

Our productivity went way up but, we couldn't afford the gadgets. Wages were / are fixed but, inflation is diminishing our purchasing power.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5303590.stm#graph
Our standard of living was falling but, propped up by credit. Wages are actually diminishing.
The workforce participation is falling. Wages are falling. Inflation is rising,,, 30 % in some areas. The consumer economy is dying. We will buy necessities, not gadgets.
The owners of capital have reaped all the gains. The workers have not participated. The workers can no longer carry their previous part of the consuming economy.
"Historically, the gains from productivity have been shared between the owners of capital and the workers. However, over the last decade or so almost all the gains have gone to capital"
http://www.stockbloghub.com/2010/03/04/ ... ving/29787
All the info shows the rich getting much richer.
The rich can't very well arbitrarily raise all the wages. We would be non-competitive in the global market.

One must remember that most of the wealth held by the very rich is held as
INSTRUMENTS. The world GDP is $ 50 trillion. Just the contracts denominated in dollars amount to $ 1.2 quadrillion dollars. This is an old number but, you get the idea. There are probably 10 quadrillion worth of contracts. The instruments can NEVER convert to tangibles.
So, the rich are holding $ 10 quadrillion worth of DEBT contracts. Eventually, the world can produce $ 10 quadrillion worth of consumables. The wealth is steadily draining away to the top 3 % of the wealthy. In the current situation, there will never be $10 Quadrillion worth of consumption.
Without consumptive power, the economy will revert to an economy of necessities.

We aren't remunerated for our vastly increasing productivity so, our aggregate productivity will fall until it is commensurate with our consumption.
GOV tries to juice up consumption with the destructiveness / consumption of war. It's all paid for with taxes on the seriously diminishing number of producers. GOV, in it's foolishness sees war as a way to gas the producing economy. It's false productivity paid for with false wealth to accomplish false [useless] consumption.

Our uber-efficiency has led / forced us to print illusions of wealth. History says that it will all come crashing down. Most of the wealthy will crash too.
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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Thu Feb 17, 2011 7:56 am

Here's a nice "don't worry" article for those who are concerned for the future of the country;
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/defici ... eid=YAHOOB
If you're unemployed, the "don't worry" article is aggravating.

Here's a "worry" article;
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... Stansberry

Here's an article by Martin Armstrong. He makes an interesting point-of-law about GOV immunity. He's currently in prison because he crossed GOV.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/So ... 9-2011.pdf
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:54 pm

Eric Jantzen has had an accurate picture of all this for the last 12 years,,, at least. He says that we have reached the point where GOV/ Banks will have to decide between saving the FIRE economy or the producing economy;
"This culmination of the inherent contradiction of monetary policy objectives between the FIRE Economy and the Productive Economy is the end of the line for the either the FIRE Economy or the Productive Economy. The Fed will be forced to choose between them."

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... post189867

GOV blew a few bubbles in the last few years. ALL of them blew. GOV is now in the process of blowing a bubble in bonds. This author believes that stimulus will stop in June. There is no possibility of operating GOV without endless money printing. The majority of writers believe that it will be QE to infinity. If / when the bond bubble blows, it will take out the whole economy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-thir ... ars-2011-2

The Swiss group believes that the Middle-East crashes will continue and end the dollar-oil connection. The dictators and autocrats are killing as fast as they can but, this may backfire and galvanize the people to even more resistance. Bernanke caused food-price inflation,, and denies it. This is causing lots of problems for all the mid-east leaders. Egypt only has 80 million people but, is the largest importer of wheat in the world. They're going into debt to buy food. GEAB compares the middle-east problems to the fall of the Berlin wall.
http://www.leap2020.eu/geab-n-52-is-ava ... a5927.html

Here's an interesting page on inflation; http://bpp.mit.edu/ I think it's biased.
The Automatic Earth believes that the dollar still has 2 good years left in it;
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... ocent.html
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Post by Sail Man » Sat Feb 19, 2011 12:03 pm

Here's a little something, slightly off topic but better here I think then the survival thread

Links between US Marxism, Communism and Islamic Terrorism
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:36 pm

Sailman, for millennium mankind has been experimenting with a "cookbook" on,,, how to run the show. Everyone wants more than they produce. The aristocracy points out that the masses continually make bad decisions. The aristocracy has to make decisions for the masses. It's an ebb and flow of different groups having control. sometimes royalty,, sometimes religion,,, sometimes rich businessmen,,, sometimes populist control.

All men are NOT created equal,,,, except in the eyes of the law. Look at Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. Some people are just a lot smarter and a lot more motivated. Socialism is a recurring idea for all the world improvers. They drag it out and prop it up on a regular basis. And, on a regular basis, it trashes the economy and crashes society. Socialism is anti-natural. It sends equal resources regardless of an individual's "worth' or "contribution" .
This erases motivation and puts the productive economy in the doldrums.

Classic socialism could never work because it destroyed motivation.
There is the possibility that socialism could work where most of the productivity is done by machines. Machines don't need motivation. In 25 years, there will be few job niches that can't be filled by a machine.

Many of the Eskimos on the North Slope receive money from the Native Lands Settlement Act. They don't need to work. They drink instead.
150 years ago, Ireland was so poor that the gentry paid the Irish to build stone walls. An Irishman would pick up a stone from the pasture,,, walk to the end of the wall,,, place the stone and eat his lunch. Then, he would walk back home and eat dinner. He placed one stone with a full days walk.

Today, GOV pays TSA workers to grope everybody searching for non-existent terrorists. As time goes by and the Machine Age advances, there are fewer and fewer people needed by the economy. The Machine age uses carbon energy to produce endless bounty. Socialism and communism are old ideas that are no longer applicable.

The problems of the future are; no jobs resulting in no consumptive power. The fascist segment / power group that is currently running the show wants to give as little support as possible..... the new "neo-feudalism". This, like socialism, is also unworkable.
We can't produce jobs in the face of global wage arbitrage. The fascist segment refuses to fund the safety net. A hundred million will fall into poverty.
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can't sit still
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Feb 20, 2011 10:20 am

Japan, and now the U.S. have lowered the prime interest rate to zero to try to get the economy rolling. America is so debt-saturated that, even ZIRP can't restart it. ZIRP is for the bankers and financial elites anyway,,, not for us. It's their game.
"The Grand Partnership of the Central State and the Financial Plutocracy (parasitic global cartel Capitalism writ large) have suppressed this natural implosion of speculative debt by printing and distributing trillions of dollars in "free" money."
"As any profits will be theirs to keep (private) while any losses (and all the risk) will be backstopped by their partner, the Central State and its tax-donkeys, the taxpayers"
"But a funny fork in the road appears after a massive dose of free money: the free money flows into speculative bets on actual tangible resources, creating massive inflation"
"The Central State/Financial Elites are thus faced with an impossible choice: if they let the speculative free money flow, then their populations starve"
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb11/202 ... s2-11.html

The general belief is that GOV is so broke that it is addicted to ZIRP;
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=123040

GOV, [you and me] is flat broke because "regulatory capture" has allowed mega-corporations to avoid taxes. This chart shows just how low our taxes are compared to other counties. Unfortunately, it doesn't show corporate taxes as a percentage of business;
http://www.ekonomifakta.se/en/Facts-and ... ge-of-GDP/
The pres is talking about new taxes,,,a couple $ trillion. Which segment of the economy is supposed to pay them?
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/ ... rauthammer
If we consider the productive economy to be the "goose that lays the golden eggs", the mega-corporations are starving the goose.
Our fascist owners don't see any reason to share the wealth. Apparently, they prefer to build a police state to keep the goose from running away.

As they starve down the goose, the golden eggs will cease. Regulatory capture starves the goose by murdering the "free market" and destroying the legal, physical and moral infrastructure. The communist system murders the free market at the same time that it kills off motivation. Both systems kill profit motivation but, communism does it more efficiently.
The fascist state is spending-down the wealth of the producers by sending all their losses to the public treasury. WE are steadily losing consumptive power and can not feed the goose.
The elitists want to gut all our savings, both public and private, to keep supporting their megalithic parasitic constructs. They also want the goose to continue to lay golden eggs. They can't have both. As Eric Jantzen recently wrote; the FED will soon have to decide which segment of the economy to support.
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Post by Sail Man » Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:45 am

can't sit still wrote:Socialism is anti-natural. It sends equal resources regardless of an individual's "worth' or "contribution" .
This erases motivation and puts the productive economy in the doldrums.

Classic socialism could never work because it destroyed motivation.
There is the possibility that socialism could work where most of the productivity is done by machines. Machines don't need motivation. In 25 years, there will be few job niches that can't be filled by a machine.
I do think as well that you could exchange the word socialism with communism.

We will continue to advance towards a more "machine age" though I think more rapidly in the manufacturing industry, and also surgery and transportation. I think other industries and/or jobs, requiring more of an actual "human" counterpart will be further off into the future but it will happen.

I came home from work the other night and my younger son was watching WALL-E, I haven't seen it myself, but it was near the end? and everybody was let out of hibernation and they were all obviously obese. Possibly from not having to physically accomplish tasks. I fear we are already headed towards this "plumping" of society and it will be worse as machines become more prominent.
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Post by can't sit still » Tue Feb 22, 2011 7:54 am

ALL governments are parasitic. They may start out to be symbiotic. But, since power corrupts,,, and attracts the already corrupted, pure parasitism is the eventual result. Like any true parasite, GOV doesn't want any limitations to it's sustenance. It eventually breaks the bank.
To avoid limitations on sustenance, it contrives means to steal what it doesn't produce. The invention of "token" money is always a favorite means. This allows GOV to cause inflation also. Since no parasite feels a need for limited growth, it always destroys the token money on it's way to destroying the producing economy. About 3---4,000 paper currencies have come and gone. NONE survived. This wasn't limited to just paper currencies. The roman Solidus was 100% silver at one time. By the time that Rome crashed, the solidus was down to 3 % silver.

A few thousand years ago, the Greeks defined the necessary properties of a currency. If it didn't have all of these properties, it had no long-term viability. Among these properties was; it had to be a store of value. Time has proven the Greeks to be correct. Any currency that didn't have intrinsic value,,,, didn't survive.

The Bretton Woods agreement at the end of WW II was one more admission that only gold could bring discipline and stability to world commerce. The cost of the Viet-Nam war broke this discipline. Once again, GOV "got the bit in it's teeth" and ran with it. Once again, unrestrained printing of token currency is destroying society and commerce. Once again, the world is facing war. The last war involved fairly primitive weapons by today's standards. With spaced-based and biological weapons, WW III would be quite destructive. There seem to be people hard at work to avoid it.

Since the economy has far outgrown the supply of gold, it would be impossible to back currencies with gold. The Bretton woods agreement only backed the dollar with gold and the rest were referenced to the dollar. Currencies can no longer be backed by gold but, there is another possibility.

It's referred to as "Freegold". It's been well proven that a currency must be a store of value OR that we must have a store of value that has intrinsic value. With the proposal of Freegold, we would still have fiat currency for transactions but we would use gold as a store of value. In this scenario, currencies would freely trade. If a GOV debased it's currency, the market would discount it. It's relatively easy with computers to keep track of economic activity.

Because of runaway greed, the military-industrial-banking complex keeps continual war going. WE put money into the banks. This money is available to finance all these wars. If / when GOLD is used as a store of value instead of token money, there would be very little wealth available for war. Here is a quote from a paper by FOFOA.

"Through the unavoidable **meritocracy** that is coming straight at us with the inertia of a runaway locomotive, we will witness the unexpected retreat of the social welfare state as well as the reversal of the destructive force of regulatory capture. You see, without the captive money of the savers to be diluted, the printing press becomes a self-defeating mechanism that will be controlled because it will be in the self-interest of the printer to do so. As F.A. Hayek wrote (which I quote and source in Windmills, Paper Tigers, Straw Men and Fallacious Fallacies):

"There are many historical instances which prove that it is certainly possible, if it is in the self-interest of the issuer, to control the quantity even of a token money in such a manner as to keep its value constant."

If GOV can no longer leverage token money to finance wars because,,,, all wealth is stored as gold, GOV can't finance wars.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-i ... egold.html

The work of FOFOA is NOT easy to follow. He writes with an uncommon command of information and logic. If you do enough reading, you'll see that he supports all of his ideas and theories.

It's a very attractive thesis; GOV would severely curtail it's war-making powers and the burgeoning police-state in the interest of preserving the general economy. The alternative is equally un-attractive. A descent from economic competition into military competition. Also, the destruction of the productive economy to ramp-up to WW III. Including the necessity of a police state. Including the destruction of the free-market,,, destruction of much of society, etc, etc.

Our Malthusian future may have been postponed by many decades but, it is approaching. A descent into WW III may be believed necessary as a eugenics goal. Hopefully, something can be worked out.
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:08 am

The U.S. hegemon is based on belligerence. We don't play "nice". War is the basis of our empire. The U.S. military blows up everything in sight. The CIA trashes regimes, both good and bad. We install puppets everywhere we feel it is necessary. The military hegemon specializes in destruction. What if that isn't enough?

Much of our energy supply comes from countries that we strive to control. The control is slowly slipping away. The dictators and monarchies in the middle-east are giving concessions as fast as they can. The battle in Tunisia was won with practically no effort. Egypt was more of a mess but, not as bad as Libya. Several other countries are pushing to rid themselves of their leaders.

Does the CIA have a playbook on how to bring stability and prosperity? Does the U.S. military have a contingency plan on how to produce oil and load ships?
The U.S. will eventually go off a cliff when the interest rates go up. So says the Congressional Budget Office. EVERYBODY knows that another oil-shock will have the same results.

There has been a great awakening in the middle-east. They realize that they only have to shut down the economy to bring disaster to their leaders. Since they're not sharing in the prosperity of the leaders, a shutdown doesn't make things that much worse for them. The people just have to stay home and it will all crash.
The Egyptians tell me that they had a government-in-waiting ready to take over. They've organized very well. They plan to refuse any loans from the IMF and European banks.

In Saudi Arabia, the Shias are a despised minority. Turns out, the Shias are the predominant employees in the oil fields. That could be a big mess if they decide to sabotage things.

The PTB of the world are great at destruction. If the masses decide to stop producing, there isn't any way the PTB can force them to work.
I suspect that another oil shock is on it's way.
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Feb 26, 2011 8:03 am

You must keep in mind that Bernanke is running the show. HE is supposed to be the brains of the FED. This article points out that his failures at prediction have been consistent. His actions have been consistently wrong. The results have generally been opposite to what he expected. The go-to guy doesn't have a fucking clue.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/denni ... 22211.html

OK, so how does this affect you? His actions have caused a self-reinforcing spike in oil and food prices. For each dollar that oil rises, we transfer $ 100 billion out of the U.S.
The bankers are just chomping at the bit to give us lots of austerity medicine.
What about the future?

The claim is made that our total indebtedness to the FED is $ 62 trillion. Goldman Sacks is running the show, NOT GOV. http://www.newswithviews.com/Duncan/al102.htm
There is no possible scenario where we pay this off. The economy and GOV spending are on cruise control. GOV says that they can't cut back on spending in any meaningful way or it will cause too much pain.
This writer believes that Americans are fatalistic about their upcoming date with disaster;
http://www.munknee.com/2011/02/american ... -splatter/
I don't know. I'm certainly not going to sit back and starve. I believe that most Americans are unable to comprehend what a depression will look like.

The FED can't possibly believe that we are going to generate an extra $ 62 trillion. What long-range plan do they have? If the big-brain Bernanke represents the game plan of the financial powers at the FED, we are ALL fucked. :shock: :D 8)
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Post by Simon of the Playa » Sat Feb 26, 2011 10:40 am

truth of the matter is CSS, you're fucked.

you're paranoid, delusional, and you live in a echo chamber of Tin-Foil Hat Websites.

i feel very sorry for you and anyone with your mindset.

good luck with that. Plonk...


god that felt good....almost as good as beating the shit out of Gov. Walker would feel.
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Post by can't sit still » Sun Feb 27, 2011 9:32 am

Several months ago, the credit agencies said that American credit would be downgraded in 2 years if we didn't get our deficit under control. A couple of months ago, they threatened to move the downgrade forward to the very near future. About 6 months ago, Dagong, the Chinese credit rating agency down-rated U.S. credit because we have little possibility of creating adequate wealth in the future. They claim.

U.S. GOV has apparently told one credit rating agency to shove it. They [we] don't want to be rated. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-wit ... nsolicited

Looking at the numbers, it appears difficult to repay or even service the debt;
"That analysis, based on the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term alternative fiscal scenario, shows an unfathomable fiscal gap of $202 trillion"
http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/un ... right-now/

Our credit rating was Aaa,, I believe. S&P mentioned that our debt to asset ratio was 3 times as bad as other countries that have an equal rating.
S&P, Moodys and Fitch are all American companies. It wouldn't be surprising if they were reluctant to down grade American debt.

This site has some excellent graphs about income inequality, taxes and voting;
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02 ... hart-graph
Ron Paul says that we'll be in a depression that will last 15 years.


Dunno, there are a lot of calls for a GOV / Dollar crisis in the autumn.
"The Intermediate Term calls for higher market highs into June 2011 - then it gets ugly - fast!"
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1298667000.php
Since mainstream economists and academia completely missed all the problems, it makes sense to read the investment economists and goldbugs.

Many investment funds are forbidden from buying debt that is rated below a certain level. With U.S. debt no longer rated,,, after may 24, I have no idea how they will react.
Just have to wait and see.
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Feb 28, 2011 8:14 pm

I found an excellent write up on money. It talks about why debt can never be repaid. It's the third article down. The first article is excellent also.
http://www.marijuanaparty.ca/forum/show ... apsed&sb=5

This is a sort-of vid that is very good about current financial problems;
http://www.wimp.com/crisescapitalism/
Here is a good pie chart of income and expenses. It IS a lie though.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-only ... wed-2011-2
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Mar 02, 2011 8:37 pm

This page has some incredible charts. Excellent and informative. The pie chart here is a lie just like the previous one that I posted. They show about $ 750 billion for the Offense Department. It's actually about $ 1.4 trillion.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ncial.html
The general consensus that I see is that we MUST cut our entitlements. OK, cut them. Cut Offense too. The medical entitlements are just too expensive. But, the wars are all unnecessary. The medical is SO egregious. The chart shows that we spend as much on healthcare as all the other OECD countries COMBINED. We get shit for it.

Truth is,,, we've waited too long. The structural problems are just too big. Any tax increase that would address the problems would KILL the economy. Even the cheerleaders at Blomberg are starting to wake up;
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russe ... 30111.html

GOV refuses to do anything until it all collapses. NOBODY in GOV wants to take the heat for canceling SS and Medicaid. To avoid the fire, they're all just going to wait for it to crash. They'll attempt to pick up the pieces and say that it couldn't be avoided.
Ron Paul said that we are going to be in a depression for 15 years. I'm pretty certain that he told congress the same thing.
Will GOV belatedly institute a Tobin tax or will they just screw all of US. The top 10 richest in congress are worth a couple of $ billion. ALL of them voted to extend the tax cuts for the rich. Does that give you any indication on how they would vote on a Tobin Tax?
Reportedly [Burien], GOV has $ 100 trillion invested in various places. Will GOV dig into the money reported in their CAFR reports to save the starving? Don't bet on it.

This is the CAFR report for Wisconsin. They've got $ 123 billion;
http://realitybloger.wordpress.com/2011 ... explained/
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Post by can't sit still » Thu Mar 03, 2011 8:42 pm

We seem to have passed some new threshold; "#7 Americans now owe more on student loans than they do on credit cards

Americans now owe more than $849 billion on student loans, which is a new all-time record and, sadly, student loan debt is nearly impossible to get rid of. Once you are committed, it will follow you around for the rest of your life."
http://www.munknee.com/2011/02/american ... heres-why/

This is an unusual call; "Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig calls for Wall Street banks to be broken up"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... en-up.html

This is an excellent article talking about how a private central bank will invariably screw up an economy;
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICL ... ankers.php

This is a good article talking about how the dollar is no longer considered a safe haven in times of civil unrest A very important distinction. http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/117956/2 ... dollar.htm

This page has good graphs showing the relative historic tax burden between the rich and the poor;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ic-finance
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Post by can't sit still » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:30 pm

From the Automatic Earth;
"The overall message of the poll is that a large majority of Americans don't want significant cuts to entitlement programs. Unfortunately, as Richard Russell indicates, those cuts will come anyway, and soon. American leadership has decided that saving banks trumps saving people,"
"Again unfortunately, there are very few people out there who understand what must of necessity lie ahead"
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... ed-if.html
Here's some more info From Martin Armstrong;
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Th ... 7-2011.pdf
There's bad news. There's good news. http://www.forbiddenknowledgetv.com/vid ... t-bad.html
We'll just have to wait around to see what happens. 8)
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Post by can't sit still » Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:01 pm

EVERYBODY is arguing whether we are in or will have deflation or inflation. Here are some thoughts. Everybody is in one camp or another.
Sherm, one has to be VERY careful about "camping". Obviously, one has to specify whether one means Currency inflation or price inflation. Next, one has to be careful about generalizing. During the Weimar meltdown, food went up and rent went down. One also has to be careful not to mix the effects of a quantitative increase of currency,,,, the effects of a quantitative increase in credit and the effects of material shortages.

The FED has [sort of] printed $ 17 trillion or so. Residential RE has lost $ 13 trillion of paper value. $ 5.5 trillion of HELOCs have been rescinded. Paper losses in stocks and bonds have been huge. The stock market has nominally recouped much of the loss thanks to the PPT. There was originally reported $ 1.2 quadrillion "worth" of derivatives. The Dodd-Frank bill listed the [then] current value at $ 523 trillion. Supposedly, $ 500 trillion were mutually self-canceled between zombies. It's difficult to know the actual quantity of currency,,, of credit,,, of M3,,,M1,,, etc. Impossible to say if we're in currency deflation or inflation. People feel poorer when their house loses paper value. Does that translate to a decrease in the velocity of money? Does a decrease in credit have the same "effect" as a decrease in M1 ?

We're in a deflationary depression from many aspects. Houses will continues to go down. After all, in the final analysis, the price of a house always has to be proportionate to the wages in the same area.
CRE is in for a huge crash. The U.S. has 5 times the retail space per-person that France has. Utilization of industrial capacity is crashing. TOO much competition. Consumption is crashing through the floor. If a company has great earnings in a foreign division,,,, and the earnings are held off-shore, does this truly reflect in the stock market?

Mac n Mae are on the way to being dissolved? If 97 % of mortgages are backed by GOV, what does this imply for treasury?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/97 ... overnment/

The U.S. has had a long-term run-up at inflation. Several areas will be in deflation. GOV obviously wants to use inflation to reduce the debt. How can they balance debt reduction against the danger of causing a $ 20 loaf of bread? Oil is out of their control. How can they expect to fine-tune inflation?

The price inflation that we see now is due, in great part, to market forces. As we approach the 2012 alignment, the weather will get MUCH more violent. Read Jennifer Lawson and Piers Corbyn.
The existing violent weather has caused crop destruction. I can send a TON of info from the dept of Ag and several other sites. Suffice it to say that the food reserves are at the level of 1974,,, and there are a LOT more people. Food price inflation is the result of G.S. [wheat] and speculation AND actual shortages.
Market forces.

Oil price inflation is tied to speculation and unrest. Market forces also. Not to mention that EVERYBODY in OPEC lied about reserves. Saudi's production is falling off rapidly. Mexico's production from Cantarell is crashing.

I believe that we wills see severe deflation in several areas after June. QE II is demonstrably a failure. QE III will chase out more investors. The MARKET controls interest rates. The FED "follows". By autumn, interest rates will be rising sharply.
GOV knows this. That is why they have the pedal-to-the-metal on spending. GOV wants to declare force majeure before the military disintegrates. Everybody is on 90 day paper hoping to "time" the crash and get out just in time.
Force majeure will cancel a LOT of contracts.

Greenspan is no dummy. He blew bubbles and sucked in money. He wanted to prolong the party until the axis of evil was vanquished. Remember, Bush declared victory post-haste. Bernanke proved that he is a dummy,,,, by taking the job.

This whole pretend-and-extend BS is going to cause things to be much worse.

This is a good article that tries to differentiate between credit and money.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gol ... rect=False

This article renames stagflation as biflation;
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/03/eco ... creen.html
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Post by can't sit still » Tue Mar 08, 2011 7:17 pm

I'm reading around a lot. There is a common thread running through the financial posts. The U.S. is broke as shit and WE need to cut entitlements.
"many politicians are afraid to reform or even to discuss changes in the largest problem areas: Medicare and Medicaid."
"The more that our government runs up unfunded obligations and debt, the more we are setting a trap for ourselves. " "Under the second option, if entitlement programs are cut, many Americans would naturally have to learn to live on less and take a hit to their standard of living."
He doesn't mention freezing or starving to death. He doesn't mention living in agony because medication is cut off.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/busin ... f=business
Mish has lots of good graphs showing what's going on;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ncial.html

The common thread is that entitlements are bad,,, no matter if we paid in to them or not.
They MUST be cut or done away with.
The total military and spy budget is about $ 1.5 trillion. No mention of big cuts there. We MUST preserve America from all those terrorists.

The country has been taken over by banks and corporations. Corporations are great at cutting out non-performing assets. The retired and elderly are non-producing assets. The military produce great wealth for the arms industry. The military is a great tool for stealing from other countries.
All the old farts just tie up capital that could be used to produce wealth for banks and corporations.
The politicians are afraid to come out in the open and cut the entitlements. They'll just run the whole system into the ground and say that they had no choice.
The February deficit is about $ 7.9 billion a DAY. Not the entire budget,,, just the deficit. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/februa ... rgest-ever

Bernanke wrote a paper in ?'94 showing that Quantitative easing does NOT work. He's firmly on the QE train because his pet theories did NOT work. He was so sure that he could avoid a repeat of great depression I. His hubris and academic myopia have crashed us all. Lots of credit should also go to Paulson and Geithner.

QE was / is proved unworkable in japan. So, what do we get?,,,, QE. Will it work? Not likely, says Bill Gross. http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ar ... ed-to-Fall

There is speculation that the FED will abruptly end QE II. The FED is buying at least 40 % of the GOV bonds. NOBODY will make up the difference if QE stops. It will all come to a crashing halt. GOV won't pay it's bills. Who knows?
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/coming-rout/53869
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Mar 09, 2011 8:01 pm

Y'all know that I've been preaching that the bond market is, by far, the most important market / indicator. PIMCO is the largest bond fund in the world. Bill Gross has been warning that treasury bonds are headed for a crash. He / PIMCO is 100 % OUT of treasury bonds. They sold about $ 29 billion. This is a lot for a fund.

"Based on still to be publicly reported data by Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, in the month of January, has taken its [Treasury] bond holdings to zero," writes Tyler Durden at Zerohedge."
PIMCO is holding $ 54.5 billion in cash. That would indicate that Gross believes that even though the dollar is losing value, he expects treasury bonds to lose even more.

OK, GOV is discussing cuts to fix the situation;
""but Democrats have rejected GOP-backed cuts of more than $50 billion, and Republicans have ruled out Democrats' cuts of less than $10 billion" The February deficit alone is $ 223 billion. I'm sure that I don't really need to explain that nobody is serious about all this. Here's a link if you want an explanation; http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploa ... 030711.pdf

There are credible claims that GOV is going to purposely crash the whole thing because they don't want to be held responsible for cutting benefits. There is speculation that a stopgap funding will NOT be approved in time for the march 16? deadline. Imagine if GOV spending comes to a stop. 1/3 of wages is handouts; http://www.cnbc.com/id/41969508
GOV is perfectly happy to spend $ 1.5 trillion for the military but,,,, screw education; http://www.activistpost.com/2011/03/def ... ricas.html

This is a very interesting article with lots of graphs. It talks about unemployment and food subsidies worldwide. The whole world is in for a rough time; http://www.safehaven.com/article/20207/ ... ge-of-rage

This article claims that GOV is losing control of the markets. When this happens, the interest rates will rise. That will make debt-service extremely difficult for several countries. Any country that raises rates will attract all the hot money. The $ 54.5 billion from PIMCO will flow to wherever the best earnings are. If America is forced to pay more interest, the debt can't be serviced and the economy dies. Add in the oil-shock and it gets very rough. A Mid-East war would put all of us on bicycles. :wink:
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Arti ... chtime.htm
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Post by can't sit still » Wed Mar 09, 2011 9:19 pm

In summer of 2005, I was happily unemployed and living in Bend, Or. Swimming and lazing in the sun all day. Between swimming, lazing, eating and biking, I started reading the predictions from the goldbugs,,,, among other stuff. They wanted to sell gold so, they were real negative on the economy. The stuff that I read made some sense though. I did more reading and concluded that they had logic and history on their side. I had just moved to Bend in the spring and I was looking forward to taking it easy for a few years. I had built a log house in the woods and I wanted to enjoy some carefree time. It was all paid for.

The info from the goldbugs convinced me that a collapse was on it's way. I didn't want to be pushing a shopping cart and eating dog food so, I abandoned Or. and came back to L.A. Bummer.
The goldbugs haven't had perfect accuracy and they tended to jump the gun a bit. But, in the long run, they tended to be mostly accurate. They sell gold as their main business and sell gloom-and-doom as a side business. Here are a couple of articles from Jim Willie and Bob Chapman. They paint an extremely bad picture. You can read their archives and judge for your selves if you should believe their predictions.
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalF ... 683100.php
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1299704400.php

The Daily Reckoning has written about the death of Treasury bonds. Here are their recommendations.
" Food stamps are setting records too. They're now being sent to more than 44 million people. And another 15 million qualify - one out of every 5 Americans."
"Daily Reckoning readers are urged to raise chickens. And plant gardens. For those who want to be fed by at government expense will soon want bread."
Notice that they didn't say "buy gold". They didn't say "protect your portfolio" They said "plant a garden"
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Post by can't sit still » Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:41 pm

All currencies are dying and losing value. ALL paper currencies die in the end. They last, on average, 40 years. The U.S. dollar is losing purchasing power 48 % faster than the other dying currencies. The U.S. dollar is exactly 40 years old as a fiat currency.
http://www.economicnoise.com/2011/03/09 ... ur-future/
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Post by can't sit still » Sat Mar 12, 2011 7:17 pm

This is interesting testimony from Galbraith. "Economist Jamie Galbraith in testimony to the Senate Crime subcommittee on May 4th, 2010:" "Credit will collapse during a crisis. Money does not collapse."
"There must be a thorough, transparent, effective, radical cleaning of the financial sector and also of those public officials who failed the public trust. The financiers must be made to feel, in their bones, the power of the law. And the public, which lives by the law, must see very clearly and unambiguously that this is the case. Thank you.â€
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