Earthquake prediction

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:17 am

I could easily see the roads being "taken out" not so much by the shaking, but, the panicked drivers and wrecks. one huge pile up, and, it's all over anyway.

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:17 am

wrong oracle yggy...bark up that tree and you'll get nothing but a total sap.

Roberto Dobbisano · Post by **Roberto Dobbisano** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:19 am

i would go with the team thats Undefeated, like the 1974 Dolphins.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:46 am

Roberto Dobbisano wrote:i would go with the team thats Undefeated, like the 1974 Dolphins.

when I did follow sports, I was a 9ers fan...........

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:35 am

littleflower wrote: CSS ... did they say how big an earthquake would need to be, and exactly where it would need to break, to take out ALL of these freeways at once, from all directions??????

i mean, this is really very funny ...... and i know that you know how huge LA is ....

6 = 5 X 10
7 = 6 X 10
8 = 7 X 10
9 Richter = 8 R X 10

It's actually a complex question, which is one reason for measuring results.
Earthquakes are three dimensional with all that implies in possibility.
And maintenance and construction plays into this too, and the base layer below.
But the wrath of god fissures and drops do occur, as they did in alaska.

wedeliver · Post by **wedeliver** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:57 am

Isotopia wrote:
I'm more interested in driving the Texas Panhandle looking for tornadoes
Always thought that was mid to late summer but I see that things actually get started up from April to July.

If I were chasing a tornado I think I'd forget the whole armored, satellite directed bus and stick with the go kart and the modified 25 gallon gas tank.

I was reading fast when I passed the above post. Thought it said TOMATOES. Didn't think twice about it.

Here is some info about the "Northridge Earthquake" which was actually in Reseda not Northridge. I was working for (cough cough) Packard Bell in Chatsworth, my wife worked at Sears Northridge and we lived about a mile and a half from the epicenter at Wilbur and Saticoy streets, in Reseda.

"The 6.9 magnitude Northridge Earthquake shook the town of Northridge, California and its surrounding region at 4:31 a.m. on January 17, 1994. Fifty seven people were killed and almost nine thousand people were injured. Northridge is a college town that is approximately twenty miles northwest of Los Angeles. The entire region between the town of Northridge and the city of Los Angeles is populated with suburbs.
The earthquake caused damage to more than 65,000 homes and businesses. It caused part of the Antelope Valley Freeway to collapse onto part of the Golden State Freeway, just south of the town of Newhall, California. It also caused part of the Santa Monica Freeway to collapse, just west of the city of Los Angeles. The earthquake also caused landslides in the surrounding mountains of Santa Susana, Santa Monica and western San Gabriel. This indirectly caused damage to roads, water lines and homes."

The above does not mention the Train that fell over just a half mile from where we lived. 2 Engines and 11 cars all on their sides.

I also do Earthquake prediction and so far I am 100%. I predict when earthquakes WON'T happen. So far I have never been wrong!

Bob · Post by **Bob** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:47 pm

ygmir wrote:so, Iso, what do you hear about the quake prediction for you in the Bay this weekend?
I'll be in Fremont on Saturday......wondering if I need swim fins.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KICK THE TROUGH EAST...
AND QUICKLY SPIN UP A POTENTIALLY DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY. THE
MODELS STILL DON`T AGREE ALL THAT WELL ON THE SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE
00Z NAM DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER SURFACE LOW WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO...AS
LOW AS 980 MB...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A LOW OF 995 MB AND
988 MB RESPECTIVELY. EVEN IF THE LESS INTENSE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ON SUNDAY...
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS. ALSO...HYDRO ISSUES MAY
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE REGIONAL WRF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL HILLS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM AND THEN ADDS
UP TO ANOTHER 3-4 INCHES IN THE HILLS BY LATE SUNDAY.

cite

You are doomed.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:26 pm

Bob wrote:
ygmir wrote:so, Iso, what do you hear about the quake prediction for you in the Bay this weekend?
I'll be in Fremont on Saturday......wondering if I need swim fins.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KICK THE TROUGH EAST...
AND QUICKLY SPIN UP A POTENTIALLY DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY. THE
MODELS STILL DON`T AGREE ALL THAT WELL ON THE SPECIFICS...BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. THE
00Z NAM DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER SURFACE LOW WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO...AS
LOW AS 980 MB...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A LOW OF 995 MB AND
988 MB RESPECTIVELY. EVEN IF THE LESS INTENSE SOLUTIONS VERIFY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ON SUNDAY...
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ACTUALLY TRACKS. ALSO...HYDRO ISSUES MAY
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THE REGIONAL WRF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL HILLS WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM AND THEN ADDS
UP TO ANOTHER 3-4 INCHES IN THE HILLS BY LATE SUNDAY.

cite

You are doomed.

thanks Bob........you may recline.

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 2:57 pm

Weather prediction is still a matter of probabilities; I doubt that we'l ever get that close with quakes.

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:51 pm

so, Iso, what do you hear about the quake prediction for you in the Bay this weekend?

Right up there with the predictions of Apocalypse that fundamentalist Christ-o-holics are predicting for May 15th this years. Both are bullshit. Both anchored in hope and faith and nothing to do with science.

Nothing.

If you take a look at this 7-day earthquake map (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/ ) you'll see that there are quakes along the San Andreas constantly. There's nothing new. So I'm wondering how many of the Jean Dixon shit hats are gonna pick any one of these temblors and lay claim to their predictions being right.

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 5:04 pm

I predict that when reaching perigee, the moon will appear larger in the sky.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 5:05 pm

Isotopia wrote:
so, Iso, what do you hear about the quake prediction for you in the Bay this weekend?
Right up there with the predictions of Apocalypse that fundamentalist Christ-o-holics are predicting for May 15th this years. Both are bullshit. Both anchored in hope and faith and nothing to do with science.

Nothing.

If you take a look at this 7-day earthquake map (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/ ) you'll see that there are quakes along the San Andreas constantly. There's nothing new. So I'm wondering how many of the Jean Dixon shit hats are gonna pick any one of these temblors and lay claim to their predictions being right.

oh, yeah, I get that part.
I follow the usgs site daily.
I just thought I remembered you having a penchant for geology, (as do I) and, since there had been "predictions" flying about for this weekend, thought since you are in that area (IIRC), you might have any input.
And, I see you do.
That was about it.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 5:54 pm

Littleflowe, while L.A. is a large city, it has dozens of faults. Some are active,, some are known. Others are not;
http://www.data.scec.org/faults/faultmap.html
The Northridge quake fault was 11 miles deep and unknown. The periodicity on the San Andreas locally was thought to be about 150 years. The periodicity has recently been shortened to 90--120 years. The last big movement wast the 1865 Tejon Quake. In general , the shallow faults give a sharper jolt while the deeper faults give a longer duration. When the San Andreas lets go in a big way, the duration is expected to be 7 minutes in L.A.
The southern San Andreas is quite a bit overdue for a shaker of 7 or above.
http://www.physorg.com/news70114196.html
It is expected for the quake to propagate at the speed of sound.
I was in L.A. for the '71 quake but left the day before the '94 event. Both took out bridges. Here are a list of quakes.
1857 Fort Tejon (7.9) Â· 1872 Lone Pine (7.8 Â· 1906 San Francisco (7.8 Â· 1952 Kern County (7.3) Â· 1992 Cape Mendocino (7.2) Â· 1992 Landers (7.3) Â· 1999 Hector Mine (7.1) Â· 2010 Baja California (7.2)
Large
(6.0-6.9)

1868 Hayward (6.8 Â· 1933 Long Beach (6.4) Â· 1971 San Fernando (6.6) Â· 1983 Coalinga (6.5) Â· 1984 Morgan Hill (6.2) Â· 1986 Chalfant Valley (6.2) Â· 1989 Loma Prieta (6.9) Â· 1992 Big Bear (6.4) Â· 1994 Northridge (6.7) Â· 2003 San Simeon (6.5) Â· 2004 Parkfield (6.0) Â· 2010 Eureka (6.5)
You notice that the quake on the San Andreas was 7.9 . That makes it 10 times as strong as the last 2 quakes in L.A. that took out several bridges. There were also reports that the damage in the San Fernando Valley would have been much, much worse if the quake had gone on just a bit more than the initial 45 seconds. We know that the big faults will let go. We use GPS and strain gauges to try to figure out when.

LLQchasm · Post by **LLQchasm** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 6:19 pm

Will you quit this 2012 BS already? The bill is going to come due in 2013 and it will be a bummer for those who bought it.

littleflower · Post by **littleflower** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:13 pm

CSS ...

an earthquake is NOT likely to cut off every major road into LA, because the area is too big. a major earthquake will be horrible, but life goes on, you know? also, there is at least as much concern for a 7+ in the downtown area as there is for an 8 around the salton sea, which is the area expected to break. they find new faults in LA all the time, i've heard it described as a huge plate of broken glass. nasty stuff. but cut off the entire city? think about it .....

you are constantly predicting gloom 'n doom on every subject possible, with amazing amounts of errors and omissions and articles from questionable sources..... WTF???? can't you ever focus on anything good? or are you just stuck on apocalypse??? you're worse than the evening news, but far less dependable.

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:26 pm

2013: Smarter Than the Mayans.

ibdave · Post by **ibdave** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:06 am

T-Minus 3:00 Until Earth-Moon closeness/quake episode/event

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:10 am

Simon of the Playa wrote:ok,

lets review.

santas vs. clowns
ninjas vs. pirates
monkeys vs. robots
Art Fags vs. SparklePonies(tm)

and now this year,

TERRANS VS. SPACEMEN !!!

welcome to the beginning of the Technocalyps

yes, NASA has decided a Four Person One-Way trip to mars to determine sustainability is in our near future

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/ma ... _crew.html

it's time for YOU TO TAKE SIDES!

do you want to EVOLVE into a bio-mechanical essence that can travel to the far reaches of the universe via technology or do you want to stay on stinky old polluted doomed earth.

i think the answer is clear, and Werner Von Braun was Right.

we must go where no man has gone before, and i'm not talking about the ugly lesbian at the YMCA who works the front desk.

SPACE!

it's time.

let the Terrans wallow in their own Filth and Nag Champa.

we have worlds to conquer.

i think i just shit myself in multiple dimensions....

jella · Post by **jella** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:11 am

Ok if this is already imbedded in the thread somewhere I apologize but good info non the less. Growing up in So Cal we were fed the duck and cover with a spoon

http://www2.bpaonline.org/Emergencyprep ... -copp.html
It doesn't hurt to be prepared.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:08 pm

jella, that's good info. It all depends on what kind of building you're in. I went to Managua after their quake. It was only a 6.2 but caused a huge amount of death. I walked around in a dead city. It was all heavy poured concrete and masonry to withstand tropical storms. It all came down except for the Hilton. Wood-frame construction is less likely to flatten.

As far as bridges going down. I never said or implied that all the bridges would go down. It's the high overpasses and interchanges that are most prone to collapse. The 10--15 interchange is a good example. The 5--14 went down twice already.
I didn't post the prediction link because I thought it would happen. I posted it so that YOU could evaluate the risk. If nothing happens, we have a reprieve. The continental plates are not going to stop moving just because we don't like it.

TomServo · Post by **TomServo** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:15 pm

No earthquake yet!

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:26 pm

(tick, tock, tick...)

Still waiting......

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:40 pm

Wouldn't be hard to damage roads enough to stop traffic.
I see delta settling lift concrete plates enough for fatalities.
How long to repair minor damage may have more to do with the total situation, gridlock, number of blocked roads, etc.
Possible to end up with enough damage to stop traffic for an uncomfortable time.

Roads are rather delicate considering.

Simon of the Playa · Post by **Simon of the Playa** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:42 pm

[youtube][/youtube]

cowboyangel · Post by **cowboyangel** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:44 pm

Trishntek wrote:
Kinetic V wrote:Anyone who wants to go chasing tornadoes or even thinks about it needs to chase down their local NWS meteorologist and get storm spotter training before doing anything else. Follow that up with any courses offered by your local emergency management team. Then instead of rushing out to chase on the first good day stay home and use your internet connection to learn more. And even further you can look and learn even more with these Spotter Guides: http://spotterguides.us/, or follow along with Severe Studios and their Ustream feeds and save yourself some gas and serious hail damage....

That being said the last thing tornado alley needs is another addition to the road clogging, emergency vehicle blocking caravan of idiots that put themselves and first responders at risk by not knowing what the fuck they're doing out there. If you chase...if you think about chasing, go educate yourself. Otherwise stay the fuck at home and watch the Discovery Channel.

Sorry for the rant but I've been "chasing" and reporting for the NWS for over 14 years now, and this is a subject I am quite familiar with. The best "chasers" can stay parked most of the time while the zoo goes flying by...we get the NWS the warning info they need, and we get our video...while the rest gets the gas bill and hail damage.
But But Buttttt! You are making the huge assumption they want to survive!

Kinetic means well, and I appreciate it. I don't do anything extreme before checking out all the important stuff. Twice on Denali and once on Aconcagua taught me that.

gyre · Post by **gyre** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:46 pm

Denali can be a little dangerous

Ugly Dougly · Post by **Ugly Dougly** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 3:53 pm

ygmir wrote:I could easily see the roads being "taken out" not so much by the shaking, but, the panicked drivers and wrecks. one huge pile up, and, it's all over anyway.

Didn't you just get one on I-80?
Absent a quake, I mean.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 4:58 pm

Cowboy, is Mt. Saint Elias on the menu? THAT one has a bad reputation. I drove by it, at a distance, a dozen times. Never heard anything good about it.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 5:05 pm

Ugly Dougly wrote:
ygmir wrote:I could easily see the roads being "taken out" not so much by the shaking, but, the panicked drivers and wrecks. one huge pile up, and, it's all over anyway.
Didn't you just get one on I-80?
Absent a quake, I mean.

yup, shut I-80 down for most of the day.
pile up, in snow.

ibdave · Post by **ibdave** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 8:24 pm

slow day on the shakeOmeter:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/