Earthquake prediction

wedeliver · Post by **wedeliver** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:55 pm

REALLY slow day in LA as far as shaking goes. Normally there are more in the 1 to 3 range everyday, but not so much this last week. Almost unusually calm

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 9:41 am

Y'all know that it is impossible to find sources that don't have any lies or mis-info or mistakes. YOU have to sort out the truth. If you want to rant about a HAARP cite on the same page as a USGS report,,,, go ahead.
We do know that the pole is shifting slowly. It is a constant process. There is speculation that the shift is causing increased earthquake activity.
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Earth_Chang ... -2010.html
This article examines some of the theories;
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/03/5-t ... ncing.html

This stuff takes on added importance because so many people live on the Pacific Ring of Fire. They situate their power stations on faults. This is a bit of black-humor;
"The late great environmentalist David Brower, used to tell audiences solemnly, â€œNuclear plants are incredibly complex technological devices for locating earthquake faults.â€

dj_john69 · Post by **dj_john69** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:18 pm

Personally, id be more worried about the Cascadia subduction zone over San Andreas fault.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:54 pm

Support your local fault.

I'm in Van Nuys, 60 miles from the San Andreas. My house in Bend, Or is supposed to be right in the exact location of the next cinder cone that is produced by Mt. Paulina. My house in Myrtle Point wants to fall down all by itself. There was a 8.8? off the coast in 1859? My immediate problem is that there is a big cougar living in my [large] front yard and a big bear up at my spring. My river is in flood and 2 of my big trees blew down from the HIGH winds. It keeps me on my toes

wedeliver · Post by **wedeliver** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 4:33 pm

can't sit still wrote:Support your local fault. I'm in Van Nuys, 60 miles from the San Andreas. My house in Bend, Or is supposed to be right in the exact location of the next cinder cone that is produced by Mt. Paulina. My house in Myrtle Point wants to fall down all by itself. There was a 8.8? off the coast in 1859? My immediate problem is that there is a big cougar living in my [large] front yard and a big bear up at my spring. My river is in flood and 2 of my big trees blew down from the HIGH winds. It keeps me on my toes

Good thing you are a young guy and have the energy to deal with all that!

Perhaps if you introduced the bear to the cougar things might work themselves out.

I have been to big bear but never been to big cougar
Good luck

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:03 pm

The cougar lives on one side of the river, the bear on the other. My spring is up high on the far side of the river. There is a high poly-pipe suspended above the river. In low-water, it is 30 meters across the river. I carry a chain saw up to the spring in the hopes that the bear will hear me coming. I prefer not to shoot her. The cougar is another question. He just watches.... so far. There is an abundance of deer so the carnivores have it easy. The river rises about 10 meters in flood and I don't try to cross. When a tree floats down, it takes out my poly pipe and guy-cable. Much of the pasture downstream has been submerged for over a month.
The house is protected by 2 giant [sort of] redwoods. 2 meters diameter. Local loggers want to cut them down for me. I declined.

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:20 pm

Personally, id be more worried about the Cascadia subduction zone over San Andreas fault.

Worrisome to say the least. Mendocino Triple Junction and all of that. Besides the Hayward of San Andreas popping loose anytime soon I think I'd be more worried about the Cascadia fault. Like the one that just hit Japan the Cascadia is a deep subduction fault. Such faults are always the most intense though not always the most damaging. But when the Cascadia goes Portland and Vancouver residents better have their shoes on.

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:48 pm

Isotopia wrote:
Personally, id be more worried about the Cascadia subduction zone over San Andreas fault.
Worrisome to say the least. Mendocino Triple Junction and all of that. Besides the Hayward of San Andreas popping loose anytime soon I think I'd be more worried about the Cascadia fault. Like the one that just hit Japan the Cascadia is a deep subduction fault. Such faults are always the most intense though not always the most damaging. But when the Cascadia goes Portland and Vancouver residents better have their shoes on.

IIRC, there is also the threat of a global sized methane release associated with that fault. Supposedly, there is a vast amount of frozen methane there, as well.

TomServo · Post by **TomServo** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:19 am

12:19....monday morning...no earthquakes...or any ones we could feel..

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:54 pm

I thought that the big Oregon quake was in 1859. Apparently, I was way off;
http://www.oregonlive.com/earthquakes/i ... earth.html

Isotopia · Post by **Isotopia** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:43 pm

Personally, id be more worried about the Cascadia subduction zone over San Andreas fault.

Dude, the San Andreas is the remnant of what continues on as the Cascadia fault.

wedeliver · Post by **wedeliver** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:56 pm

can't sit still wrote:Well, as most of you know, there is a California geologist who has a good record of earthquake prediction. He was right on target for the "world series earthquake". He says that various indicators predict a quake in Ca for this weekend.

There was another guy who reportedly predicted the Christchurch

The above is why I have chosen to predict when Earthquakes WON'T happen. So far my record is 100%!

Here is the current Los Angeles quake look see.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 18-34.html

The map at this time says there are 20 earthquakes on it and the list includes..

20 earthquakes in list

biggest one is 2.5. this is kinda interesting to me. It seems very calm. When I look at this map there are typically 60 to 100 earthquakes on it. The mag might be all below 2.0 so nobody feels them, but TO ME at this time the map seems very, unusally calm.

Oh, I did "predict" one Earthquake when I lived in Los Angeles. When the Northridge earthqake hit the weather in Los Angeles was very nice, summery, beautiful, warm. while the rest of the nation was in a deep cold freeze. So, I was saying to people, "This is earthquake weather" and it turns out I was right!

Mag Date
y/m/d Local Time
h

s Latitude
deg Longitude
deg Depth
km Location
2.0 2011/03/21 15:03:05 34.301N 118.793W 23.2 6 km ( 4 mi) NW of Simi Valley, CA
1.5 2011/03/21 14:47:28 33.975N 117.241W 16.1 6 km ( 3 mi) NNW of Moreno Valley, CA
1.4 2011/03/21 10:50:52 34.639N 117.304W 0.0 14 km ( 9 mi) NNE of Victorville, CA
1.4 2011/03/20 05:58:49 33.884N 117.844W 9.5 1 km ( 1 mi) E of Placentia, CA
1.3 2011/03/20 00:00:41 34.005N 117.199W 17.3 6 km ( 4 mi) SSW of Redlands, CA
1.4 2011/03/19 09:33:31 33.792N 117.426W 1.8 12 km ( 7 mi) SSW of Woodcrest, CA
1.3 2011/03/19 07:23:32 34.478N 117.135W 12.4 8 km ( 5 mi) ESE of Apple Valley, CA
1.3 2011/03/19 07:14:07 34.194N 117.475W 8.6 7 km ( 5 mi) WSW of Devore, CA
1.8 2011/03/19 04:47:06 34.968N 118.438W 11.7 18 km (11 mi) S of Tehachapi, CA
1.4 2011/03/18 11:21:57 33.704N 117.424W 5.6 8 km ( 5 mi) WNW of Lake Elsinore, CA
1.7 2011/03/17 20:15:52 33.946N 117.733W 15.2 3 km ( 2 mi) SSW of Chino Hills, CA
1.3 2011/03/17 13:59:58 33.864N 117.496W 0.0 7 km ( 4 mi) E of Corona, CA
1.4 2011/03/17 10:54:32 34.152N 117.466W 9.5 6 km ( 4 mi) N of Fontana, CA
1.9 2011/03/16 23:24:11 34.410N 118.773W 13.2 2 km ( 2 mi) E of Piru, CA
1.5 2011/03/16 15:09:20 33.845N 117.483W 0.0 8 km ( 5 mi) ESE of Corona, CA
1.1 2011/03/16 12:48:28 33.658N 117.006W 11.3 9 km ( 6 mi) SE of Winchester, CA
2.5 2011/03/16 08:53:45 34.159N 118.596W 10.7 1 km ( 1 mi) SE of Woodland Hills, CA
1.0 2011/03/16 02:38:52 34.404N 117.736W 7.0 11 km ( 7 mi) WNW of Wrightwood, CA
2.1 2011/03/15 10:25:23 33.866N 118.314W 16.0 3 km ( 2 mi) S of Gardena, CA
1.3 2011/03/15 09:07:25 34.633N 117.316W 0.0 12 km ( 8 mi) ENE of Adelanto, CA

ygmir · Post by **ygmir** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:00 pm

Isotopia wrote:
Personally, id be more worried about the Cascadia subduction zone over San Andreas fault.
Dude, the San Andreas is the remnant of what continues on as the Cascadia fault.

aren't they only separated by that "notch" near the CA, OR border, offshore?
The other thing, isn't San Andreas a "slip fault" and Cascadia, a subduction fault?
Not that they're not the same "crack", just, different mechanisms?
or, is NA plate subducting at Cascadia, but, the Pacific plate is still moving laterally, as well?

wedeliver · Post by **wedeliver** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:11 pm

The interesting conversation above had me search and find the following.

" Seismic activity on the southern Cascadia Subduction fault may have triggered major earthquakes along the northern San Andreas Fault, according to new research published by the Bulletin of Seismological Society of America (BSSA). The research refines the recurrence rate for the southern portion of the Cascadia fault to approximately every 220 years for the last 3000 years."

from this web site; http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 131923.htm

What I get from the article is if you live in the Bay Area or north, you might consider evacuating if there is a quake on the Southern Cascadia.

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Sat Mar 26, 2011 7:38 am

Excellent article on clusters and prediction;
http://news.yahoo.com/s/dailybeast/1313 ... NyZWxhdGVk
Holy mazoly. Hasn't anyone heard of tinyurl?

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Thu May 19, 2011 7:17 pm

It looks like science may have a new tool for earthquake prediction. "They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.

At the same time, satellite observations showed a big increase in infrared emissions from above the epicentre, which peaked in the hours before the quake. In other words, the atmosphere was heating up."
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/ar ... /?p1=Blogs
Also, "DEMETER spacecraft showing a significant increase in ultra-low frequency radio signals before the magnitude 7 Haiti earthquake in January 2010 "

TomServo · Post by **TomServo** » Thu May 19, 2011 7:45 pm

I predict, we will have an earthquake in California! Maybe even a few.

today, and tomorrow....and the next day...

wedeliver · Post by **wedeliver** » Fri May 20, 2011 5:50 pm

TomServo wrote:I predict, we will have an earthquake in California! Maybe even a few.
today, and tomorrow....and the next day...

can you please be more pacific!

ibdave · Post by **ibdave** » Fri May 20, 2011 9:05 pm

wedeliver wrote:
TomServo wrote:I predict, we will have an earthquake in California! Maybe even a few.
today, and tomorrow....and the next day...
can you please be more pacific!

[youtube][/youtube]

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:30 pm

This is another interesting article on earthquake prediction; http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80bea ... n-advance/

can't sit still · Post by **can't sit still** » Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:52 pm

This is a vid where Piers Corbyn talks about earthquake effects being caused by the solar wind;

Earthquake prediction

Re: Earthquake prediction