Fears for tiers

[Zhust]

What is not explained in the FAQ is the way tiers work. Either:

• I can sign up for multiple tiers and if I win a ticket at a lower price, I'll receive that ticket.
• I can sign up for only one tier and there are separate drawings for tickets in each tier.

The first case completely defeats the quoted purpose of the tier system which allowed people who had financial hardship to buy at a lower price, offset by those willing and able to pay more.

If I can only sign up for one tier price, will tickets be selected from lower-priced tiers first then any unsold tickets added to the pool for the next higher-priced tier?

[delle]

Ha. Fears for tiers.

Clever!


(just wanted to acknowledge that. got nothing else to say at the moment....)

[trilobyte]

The way it works is you choose the highest tier you want to pay.

If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tiers 1 and 2 (25,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tiers 1, 2, and 3 (40,000 ticket opportunities).

You will be charged at the price tier for which you are awarded tickets (ie you said you'd pay up to $390, but you were awarded in the tier 2 draw, you would be charged $320).

There will likely be no unsold tickets in either tier 1 or tier 2 (that many tickets were sold on the first 48 hours in 2011). Any unsold tickets from tier 3 will be added to the ticket supply for the Secondary Sale in March.

[junglesmacks]

Any word on the order in which the tiers will be drawn?

[Elderberry]

Any word on the order in which the tiers will be drawn?

Wouldn't they have to be drawn lowest to highest to give all of those that put in for the highest amount would have a chance for a lower priced ticket?

[theCryptofishist]

Any word on the order in which the tiers will be drawn?

Wouldn't they have to be drawn lowest to highest to give all of those that put in for the highest amount would have a chance for a lower priced ticket?

I'd be happier with: First tier drawing, all the first tier people, then open it up to the rest with any extra, and so on up the line.
I don't think that's what they are doing though. And maybe a good thing, because then you'd be getting sure thing as a first tier only purchaser, at least until the all those slots had been taken.

[trilobyte]

Yes, jkisha

[junglesmacks]

Any word on the order in which the tiers will be drawn?

Wouldn't they have to be drawn lowest to highest to give all of those that put in for the highest amount would have a chance for a lower priced ticket?

You would think.

[wh..sh]

"Q: Will I possibly end up buying a ticket at a pricing tier I can’t afford?
A: No. During registration, you’re able to specify the highest pricing tier you wish to be considered for."

If I say that the highest pricing tier I want to be considered for is $320, it doesnt make sense to consider me for $240.

[junglesmacks]

"Q: Will I possibly end up buying a ticket at a pricing tier I can’t afford?
A: No. During registration, you’re able to specify the highest pricing tier you wish to be considered for."

If I say that the highest pricing tier I want to be considered for is $320, it doesnt make sense to consider me for $240.

Then don't approve the $240 tier for sale..

[wh..sh]

"Q: Will I possibly end up buying a ticket at a pricing tier I can’t afford?
A: No. During registration, you’re able to specify the highest pricing tier you wish to be considered for."

If I say that the highest pricing tier I want to be considered for is $320, it doesnt make sense to consider me for $240.

Then don't approve the $240 tier for sale..

My point is... if people pick all three tiers, it simply goes to show that they can afford $390 given the worst of worst situation. They might not "like" to pay $390, but they will if push comes to shove. But if someone picks $240, it goes to show that they absolutely can't afford anything more than that even if it involves a risk of not finding a ticket. It would make more sense to me to pick the highest tier someone has selected and throw then in that lot (that way people who can only afford $240 would get a fair shot at it).

I am not wondering what tier to pick, I am just simply thinking of logical way this system might be working in the background. Sort of my rough paper.

[theCryptofishist]

"Q: Will I possibly end up buying a ticket at a pricing tier I can’t afford?
A: No. During registration, you’re able to specify the highest pricing tier you wish to be considered for."

If I say that the highest pricing tier I want to be considered for is $320, it doesnt make sense to consider me for $240.

Then don't approve the $240 tier for sale..

My point is... if people pick all three tiers, it simply goes to show that they can afford $390 given the worst of worst situation. They might not "like" to pay $390, but they will if push comes to shove. But if someone picks $240, it goes to show that they absolutely can't afford anything more than that even if it involves a risk of not finding a ticket. It would make more sense to me to pick the highest tier someone has selected and throw then in that lot (that way people who can only afford $240 would get a fair shot at it).

I am not wondering what tier to pick, I am just simply thinking of logical way this system might be working in the background. Sort of my rough paper.

People don't "pick" three tiers. People sign up for the highest tier and might get tickets from the lower ones.
At least as I understand the procedure. I"m sure I'll get corrected if I'm wrong.

[Roberto Dobbisano]

it's ok jason,

let it all out...

[youtube][/youtube]

[wh..sh]

My point is... if people pick all three tiers, it simply goes to show that they can afford $390 given the worst of worst situation. They might not "like" to pay $390, but they will if push comes to shove. But if someone picks $240, it goes to show that they absolutely can't afford anything more than that even if it involves a risk of not finding a ticket. It would make more sense to me to pick the highest tier someone has selected and throw then in that lot (that way people who can only afford $240 would get a fair shot at it).

I am not wondering what tier to pick, I am just simply thinking of logical way this system might be working in the background. Sort of my rough paper.

People don't "pick" three tiers. People sign up for the highest tier and might get tickets from the lower ones.
At least as I understand the procedure. I"m sure I'll get corrected if I'm wrong.

I thought so too, until I read this part

Q: How do I increase my chances of getting a ticket in the Main Sale?
A: You can increase your chances by opting into all the pricing tiers. (We believe, based on many years of analyzing supply and demand, that most participants will find they are able to access a ticket on an acceptable timeline.)

[Arcticcircle]

They can't make the buyer just compete in one tier, because for anyone who JUST WANTS TO GO at ANY price, then it becomes some dumb game of guesswork over which will be the least competitive drawing. I'm not convinced that the highest priced tier will be the least competitive -- most people ready to lay down 2000 bucks to supply up for BRC are *able* to pay the top price for the ticket. So if they made each tier an exclusive lottery, the lower tiers may actually be less competitive. I have no idea what everyone else's psychology would be in terms of how to game this ridiculous process in order to get a ticket. No idea. I really hope that I am understanding them correctly that you pick the highest tier you are willing to pay, and then you are eligible for that AND and the lower priced tiers as well.

[clerkkent]

I didn't infer that from the info.. it would seem to be counter to the goal of having people the highest bracket they can afford, in order to leave lower priced tickets for others. If someone is willing to buy at the $320 price point, under your model, they would possibly get tickets at the $240 price point.

My interpretation is that the three tiers are 3 separate buckets, so if one enters the $320 lottery, they would only be eligible for the $320 lottery. People who don't get picked for the $320 bracket can reenter into the Secondary sale (as can any 'non-winners' from the $240 and $390 brackets).

The way it works is you choose the highest tier you want to pay.

If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tiers 1 and 2 (25,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tiers 1, 2, and 3 (40,000 ticket opportunities).

You will be charged at the price tier for which you are awarded tickets (ie you said you'd pay up to $390, but you were awarded in the tier 2 draw, you would be charged $320).

There will likely be no unsold tickets in either tier 1 or tier 2 (that many tickets were sold on the first 48 hours in 2011). Any unsold tickets from tier 3 will be added to the ticket supply for the Secondary Sale in March.

[essjay]

I didn't infer that from the info.. it would seem to be counter to the goal of having people the highest bracket they can afford, in order to leave lower priced tickets for others. If someone is willing to buy at the $320 price point, under your model, they would possibly get tickets at the $240 price point.

My interpretation is that the three tiers are 3 separate buckets, so if one enters the $320 lottery, they would only be eligible for the $320 lottery. People who don't get picked for the $320 bracket can reenter into the Secondary sale (as can any 'non-winners' from the $240 and $390 brackets).

According to the FAQ and clarifications from trilobyte, you are wrong. Signing up for the highest tiers automatically enters you into the two lower tiers. Because it is a lottery system, you still have the chance of "winning" a $240 ticket. There is no way to request a ticket only in the highest tier. It works the other way around - you can limit your purchase to a lower tier and opt-out of the higher tiers, but you can't opt only for the highest tier.

I agree that this is counter to the goals of having cheaper tickets available to low-income participants, but that's how it is.

The way it works is you choose the highest tier you want to pay.

If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tiers 1 and 2 (25,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tiers 1, 2, and 3 (40,000 ticket opportunities).

You will be charged at the price tier for which you are awarded tickets (ie you said you'd pay up to $390, but you were awarded in the tier 2 draw, you would be charged $320).

There will likely be no unsold tickets in either tier 1 or tier 2 (that many tickets were sold on the first 48 hours in 2011). Any unsold tickets from tier 3 will be added to the ticket supply for the Secondary Sale in March.

[bradtem]

As described, there are two ways they can implement it. One is the 3 rounds, with everybody in round 1, only $320 and $390 people in round 2 and only $390 people in round 3. This means the more you bid, the better chance you have of getting a ticket (which makes sense from an economic standpoint, but possibly not from the burner ethic "wealth is not what gets you a ticket" standpoint.)

The other way is to give the $240 bidders first crack at $240 tickets. They won't be trying for others, so apportion them there. This gives them a much higher chance of getting a ticket, gives other people a lower chance, and makes it far more likely you will pay your maximum.

Both have their advantages and disadvantages.

On the other hand, scalpers will probably focus on $240 tickets. If they learned that it was being done the 2nd way they would make their buys be only-$240. Scalpers don't want to gamble, they want max profit. If Scalpers estimate that they will sell for $500 (a reasonable estimate) they would rather have 1 $240 ticket than 3 $390 tickets, because the overall profit is much larger and the risk is lower. If scalpers think they can scalp for $1,000 they would change their logic, and be happy with just about any level as long as they don't get so many as to leave lots unsold. The scalper cares about the average price they pay per ticket.

[unjonharley]

JUST BEAT THAT DEAD HORSE

As described, there are two ways they can implement it. One is the 3 rounds, with everybody in round 1, only $320 and $390 people in round 2 and only $390 people in round 3. This means the more you bid, the better chance you have of getting a ticket (which makes sense from an economic standpoint, but possibly not from the burner ethic "wealth is not what gets you a ticket" standpoint.)

The other way is to give the $240 bidders first crack at $240 tickets. They won't be trying for others, so apportion them there. This gives them a much higher chance of getting a ticket, gives other people a lower chance, and makes it far more likely you will pay your maximum.

Both have their advantages and disadvantages.

On the other hand, scalpers will probably focus on $240 tickets. If they learned that it was being done the 2nd way they would make their buys be only-$240. Scalpers don't want to gamble, they want max profit. If Scalpers estimate that they will sell for $500 (a reasonable estimate) they would rather have 1 $240 ticket than 3 $390 tickets, because the overall profit is much larger and the risk is lower. If scalpers think they can scalp for $1,000 they would change their logic, and be happy with just about any level as long as they don't get so many as to leave lots unsold. The scalper cares about the average price they pay per ticket.

[Zhust]

The way it works is you choose the highest tier you want to pay.

If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tiers 1 and 2 (25,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tiers 1, 2, and 3 (40,000 ticket opportunities).

I'm not fond of this design. It means that those with the most money are more likely to get a ticket. I'd prefer the outline I queried:

• If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
• If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tier 2 and any remaining tickets from tier 1 (15,000 opportunities at tier 2 price + remainder of tier 1 at tier 1 price).
• If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tier 3 and any remaining tickets from tier 1 (unlikely) and tier 2 (15,000 opportunities at tier 3 price + remainder of tier 2 at tier 2 price + remainder of tier 1 at tier 1 price)

To win the game, you pick your highest price you'd be willing to pay (which is pretty true in both cases). Thinking while I type, let's say B1 burners sign up for tier 1, B2 for tier 2, and B3 for tier 3. In triolobyte's outline, the odds of getting a ticket are:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / (B1+B2+B3)
• Tier 2: 15,000 / (B2 + B3 - B2 & B3 people who already got a ticket)
• Tier 3: 15,000 / (B3 - B3 people who already got a ticket)

In mine, it works out something like:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / B1
• Tier 2: (15,000+remainder of tier 1) / B2
• Tier 3: (15,000+remainder of tier 1 & 2) / B3

So let's say 8,000 people sign up for tier 1, 12,000 for tier 2, and 12,000 for tier 3, then triolobyte's odds work out like this:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / 32,000 = 31% chance of getting a ticket, so 2,500 people in B1 get tickets, 3,750 people in B2 get tickets, 3,750 people in B3 get tickets. At this point 5,500 people who applied for only tier 1 get no ticket.
• Tier 2: Of the 24,000 people in B2 and B3, only 16,500 don't have a ticket already so the odds are 15,000 / 16,500 = 91% chance, so 7,500 more people in B2 get tickets and 7,500 more people in B3 get tickets. At this point, 750 people who applied for tier 1 or tier 2 get no ticket.
• Tier 3: Only 750 people from group B3 remains or, so everyone gets a ticket in that group. 14,250 tickets go unsold.

and mine are:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / 8,000 = everyone gets a ticket with 2,000 tickets remaining
• Tier 2: 17,000 / 12,000 = everyone gets a ticket with 5,000 tickets remain
• Tier 3: 20,000 / 12,000 = everyone gets a ticket with 8,000 tickets remaining

[unjonharley]

Now that you have shown us your great math skills... Are you going to buy a ticket or not???

I'm not fond of this design. It means that those with the most money are more likely to get a ticket. I'd prefer the outline I queried:

• If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
• If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tier 2 and any remaining tickets from tier 1 (15,000 opportunities at tier 2 price + remainder of tier 1 at tier 1 price).
• If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tier 3 and any remaining tickets from tier 1 (unlikely) and tier 2 (15,000 opportunities at tier 3 price + remainder of tier 2 at tier 2 price + remainder of tier 1 at tier 1 price)

To win the game, you pick your highest price you'd be willing to pay (which is pretty true in both cases). Thinking while I type, let's say B1 burners sign up for tier 1, B2 for tier 2, and B3 for tier 3. In triolobyte's outline, the odds of getting a ticket are:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / (B1+B2+B3)
• Tier 2: 15,000 / (B2 + B3 - B2 & B3 people who already got a ticket)
• Tier 3: 15,000 / (B3 - B3 people who already got a ticket)

In mine, it works out something like:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / B1
• Tier 2: (15,000+remainder of tier 1) / B2
• Tier 3: (15,000+remainder of tier 1 & 2) / B3

So let's say 8,000 people sign up for tier 1, 12,000 for tier 2, and 12,000 for tier 3, then triolobyte's odds work out like this:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / 32,000 = 31% chance of getting a ticket, so 2,500 people in B1 get tickets, 3,750 people in B2 get tickets, 3,750 people in B3 get tickets. At this point 5,500 people who applied for only tier 1 get no ticket.
• Tier 2: Of the 24,000 people in B2 and B3, only 16,500 don't have a ticket already so the odds are 15,000 / 16,500 = 91% chance, so 7,500 more people in B2 get tickets and 7,500 more people in B3 get tickets. At this point, 750 people who applied for tier 1 or tier 2 get no ticket.
• Tier 3: Only 750 people from group B3 remains or, so everyone gets a ticket in that group. 14,250 tickets go unsold.

and mine are:

• Tier 1: 10,000 / 8,000 = everyone gets a ticket with 2,000 tickets remaining
• Tier 2: 17,000 / 12,000 = everyone gets a ticket with 5,000 tickets remain
• Tier 3: 20,000 / 12,000 = everyone gets a ticket with 8,000 tickets remaining

[essjay]

I didn't infer that from the info.. it would seem to be counter to the goal of having people the highest bracket they can afford, in order to leave lower priced tickets for others. If someone is willing to buy at the $320 price point, under your model, they would possibly get tickets at the $240 price point.

My interpretation is that the three tiers are 3 separate buckets, so if one enters the $320 lottery, they would only be eligible for the $320 lottery. People who don't get picked for the $320 bracket can reenter into the Secondary sale (as can any 'non-winners' from the $240 and $390 brackets).

The way it works is you choose the highest tier you want to pay.

If you choose tier one, you will be in the draw for tier 1 (10,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier two, you will be in the draw for tiers 1 and 2 (25,000 ticket opportunities).
If you choose tier three, you will be in the draw for tiers 1, 2, and 3 (40,000 ticket opportunities).

You will be charged at the price tier for which you are awarded tickets (ie you said you'd pay up to $390, but you were awarded in the tier 2 draw, you would be charged $320).

There will likely be no unsold tickets in either tier 1 or tier 2 (that many tickets were sold on the first 48 hours in 2011). Any unsold tickets from tier 3 will be added to the ticket supply for the Secondary Sale in March.

Sorry, I screwed up the text in my last post. To clarify, this is the comment I meant to make, instead of burying it within someone else's quote:

According to the FAQ and clarifications from trilobyte, you are wrong. Signing up for the highest tiers automatically enters you into the two lower tiers. Because it is a lottery system, you still have the chance of "winning" a $240 ticket. There is no way to request a ticket only in the highest tier. It works the other way around - you can limit your purchase to a lower tier and opt-out of the higher tiers, but you can't opt only for the highest tier.

I agree that this is counter to the goals of having cheaper tickets available to low-income participants, but that's how it is.

[junglesmacks]

Signing up for the highest tiers automatically enters you into the two lower tiers. Because it is a lottery system, you still have the chance of "winning" a $240 ticket. There is no way to request a ticket only in the highest tier. It works the other way around - you can limit your purchase to a lower tier and opt-out of the higher tiers, but you can't opt only for the highest tier.

This is a big question here.. can we get some clarification please?

Can you opt for ONLY a higher tier without automatically opting for a lower tier?

[unjonharley]

Can you opt for ONLY a higher tier without automatically opting for a lower tier?

This same question has been asked and ansewer ed in at least three different threads.. NO

[Eric]

Can you opt for ONLY a higher tier without automatically opting for a lower tier?

This same question has been asked and ansewer ed in at least three different threads.. NO

Unjon is correct.

You will be entered in the drawing for all prices up to and including the top you can afford. You can only win from 1 tier.

As for it being unfair to the low income people- um, it's been unfair for years. It's all luck (when did you log in, did you get dropped, how many people were ahead of you...)- until this system is tried there is absolutely no honest way of knowing how "fair" it is. If only 20,000 people register than everyone will get tier 1 or 2. If 50,000 people register 10,000 will have to wait to March to try again. Without this system the entire event would be sold out in weeks, if not days. Imagine the bitching then...

[trilobyte]

@jaycerochester - I'm sorry that you're not fond of the design.

@junglesmacks - not in the Main Sale, no. However the Pre-Sale is only drawn at a $420 price (which help offset the reduced price of the lower tier and Low Income/Scholarship tickets), and the Secondary Sale is priced at tier 3.

[Zhust]

@jaycerochester - I'm sorry that you're not fond of the design.

Bummer. It's kind of a shame that if there are 32,000 orders for 40,000 tickets that with my system everyone gets what they want but with the existing design, only 25,750 orders are fulfilled and 6,250 tickets go unsold.

[Eric]

@jaycerochester - I'm sorry that you're not fond of the design.

Bummer. It's kind of a shame that if there are 32,000 orders for 40,000 tickets that with my system everyone gets what they want but with the existing design, only 25,750 orders are fulfilled and 6,250 tickets go unsold.

Those 6,250 would go into the Open Sale in March, along with the 10,000 already allotted for that. There won't be unsold tickets, you can bet on that.

II. MAIN SALE -- 40,000 TICKETS SOLD VIA RANDOM SELECTION JANUARY 2012 -- $240/$320/$390 + s/h -- LIMIT 2 PER PERSON AT ALL TIERS

Participants will register for the Main Sale during a two-week period from January 9 until January 22 (at 11:59pm PST), 2012.
Entrants will need to provide a valid credit or debit card number at the time of registration.
On or before February 1, a random selection will be conducted to award 40,000 tickets as follows:
$240: 10,000 tickets
$320: 15,000 tickets
$390: 15,000 tickets
If you are awarded tickets, your credit card will be charged for the total amount of your tickets at that time.
All sales at all Tiers for the Main Sale are limit 2 per person.
Those who are awarded tickets will receive notification on February 1 via email that their credit cards have been charged for their tickets and at which pricing tier.
Any remaining tickets not claimed in the Main Sale will be moved into the allotment for the Secondary Open Sale.

[bradtem]

@jaycerochester - I'm sorry that you're not fond of the design.

Bummer. It's kind of a shame that if there are 32,000 orders for 40,000 tickets that with my system everyone gets what they want but with the existing design, only 25,750 orders are fulfilled and 6,250 tickets go unsold.

It seems that this is pretty unlikely, but were it to happen, I have a wild guess that BRCLLC would fix it, and give $240 tickets first to $240 only people, at the cost of charging some other folks more. Since they have not laid out their plan for allocation in this way, they leave such a fix open. However, I believe they anticipate sellout. In the event of sellout, the question is who gets tickets and who doesn't. It can be random, or it can be biased to favour those who bid less.

I'm looking to find some professional game theorists to study this problem, but their answers may not be ready in time for this year.

[Zhust]

@jaycerochester - I'm sorry that you're not fond of the design.

Bummer. It's kind of a shame that if there are 32,000 orders for 40,000 tickets that with my system everyone gets what they want but with the existing design, only 25,750 orders are fulfilled and 6,250 tickets go unsold.

Those 6,250 would go into the Open Sale in March, along with the 10,000 already allotted for that. There won't be unsold tickets, you can bet on that.

Oh, I know they'll get sold. I'd just hate to have to be the one to put in the JRS, "we set up the early-sale for 40,000 tickets (by tier, 10K/15K/15K) and we had 32,000 tickets ordered (by tier, 8K/12K/12K) so we sold 25,750 tickets (by tier, 10K/15K/750) and hope that the remaining 6,250 orders (placed by people who played by our new rules but didn't get a ticket yet) can be fulfilled in the general sale." I think such a communique makes the sender look awfully dumb, but maybe that's just my perception of it.

Regardless, it's all speculation on my part anyway, so no worries.