How many people registered for the 'Lottery' sale?

[jcoffy]

I am extremely curious to know how many people registered for the 'Open Registration Main Sale' lottery. If there were 40,000 tickets did more than 20,000 people sign up? I think that Burning Man could release that number without creating any sort of scalper problem. So let us know...haw many people registered for how many tickets? What are the odds I will get my two tickets?

[tamarakay]

According to anyone who knows anything, the earliest we might possibly ever get that kind of data is in next years afterburn report, if then.

[remi]

I never understood why that information must be kept confidential either.. I mean, I know it comes out in the afterburn report.. but why couldn't you just give an approx. number of how many people registered. Just because you don't feel like it? You like making peoples hair fall out? Oh well.. are we still waiting on the 2011 afterburn report?

[TT120]

I'm going to say 19,312 people registered for the main sale. We'll get our tickets.

[trilobyte]

It's not my decision, but I can certainly understand why they wouldn't want to publish every statistic surrounding the event. The world of event production is a crazy place, and while Burning Man may not be commercial or highly competitive, most other events (and event production companies) are. Plus, the posting/boasting of numbers and stats pre event seems like a kind of commercial thing to do, the kind of thing companies do when they're hyping up their event or trying to get people worked up into a frenzy.

Tamarakay is correct, we probably won't see any details until the 2012 event afterburn report, which will likely be released after the event, in late winter of next year (the 2011 report will likely come out in late winter this year). Burning Man just does not historically post that kind of information pre-event. To be honest, I'm surprised at the level of pre-event sharing that they're doing this year - they've never disclosed how many total tickets would be on offer before (and they could have easily done that this year by leaving out totals for the secondary sale).

[Elderberry]

Why would that be surprising? They've never had a sellout before either. There is a finite cap on the number of tickets imposed by their agreement with BLM which is public knowledge. When you combine that with the distinct possibility the event will again sell out, their numbers announcement is nothing more than stating the obvious.

[BBadger]

Suppressing such information helps prevent speculators from affecting the ticket sales too.

[Sham]

The drawing has not started yet.
The drawing will take place on Tuesday 31st of January and Wednesday 1st of February.

This is the official word from upstairs.

[forty_eight]

Suppressing such information helps prevent speculators from affecting the ticket sales too.

I agree with this ... it would be the metric used by specualtors to understand scarcity and forecast return on investment.

If there were 40,000 registrants (adjusted for potential double dippers), a scalper could get a more informed idea of the position they might take in the open sale.

Still, the BMORG sponsored secondary market is a good hedge against pricing bubbles as the (potentially) remaining tickets from the Open Sale and price regualted seconday market sales would be the first resort for laggers. Those markets have to go fully dry before a scalper can reap the return on investment that make them play in that space to begin with. I wasn't in the market for a ticket last year, so it will be interesitng to me to see how the true scalper market (on craigslist or ebay) plays out.

[trilobyte]

I also think that a good chunk of the tickets that turned up on Craigs List and eBay last year were from legitimate burners who had tickets they couldn't use, and had no other easy way to sell them. If they build the right system that makes it easy for people to do the right thing, they may be less inclined to resort to CL/eBay listings.

[frankbank]

The drawing has not started yet.
The drawing will take place on Tuesday 31st of January and Wednesday 1st of February.

This is the official word from upstairs.

so we can safely use our debit cards till the day before or after, yes yes?

[trilobyte]

Do whatever you like. You're a grown-up person and able to manage your money and your accounts as you see fit. But if your card is declined for any reason, you will lose your tickets and you'll have to try your luck in either the secondary sale or the after-market.

[frankbank]

Do whatever you like. You're a grown-up person and able to manage your money and your accounts as you see fit. But if your card is declined for any reason, you will lose your tickets and you'll have to try your luck in either the secondary sale or the after-market.

I'm not worried about funds, I'm worried about spending limit. I don't want to make my car payment tomorrow and the lotto is tomorrow.

[Savannah]

I think people will be hesitant to advise you on that, because we don't know how much leeway you have with your car payment, or what quirks your card might have, or whether there is a chance in hell that the dates for the drawings could change (though right now official word is that the drawing will be January 31st and February 1st). It seems like a highly personal thing, and no one wants you to lose out.

[frankbank]

I think people will be hesitant to advise you on that, because we don't know how much leeway you have with your car payment, or what quirks your card might have, or whether there is a chance in hell that the dates for the drawings could change (though right now official word is that the drawing will be January 31st and February 1st). It seems like a highly personal thing, and no one wants you to lose out.

If that's you in the profile pic, I love you.

I understand, I will put off the payment till after the lotto haha

[trilobyte]

That's between you and your bank - different banks have different limits, and sometimes the limits can vary greatly between customers who use the same bank.

[lemur]

42,317

[soupman]

I say 56,000 people registered for 2 tickets a piece, and of those 28,000 will have their credit/debit cards denied due to lack of funds.

[lemur]

whoever guesses how many marbles are in the jar gets a free 2013 ticket!!

(this idea is good!)

[moltensteelman]

31,719.9

[Zhust]

I'm going to say 19,312 people registered for the main sale. We'll get our tickets.

But at which tiers did they select? Let me open up "Snarky Ticketing Douchebag.ods" and assume an even split ...

For the 6437 orders willing to pay for Tier 1:
- 3333 (51.8%) get tickets.
- 3104 (48.2%) get no ticket at all.

For the 6437 orders willing to pay for Tier 2:
- 3333 (51.8%) get Tier 1 tickets.
- 3104 (48.2%) get Tier 2 tickets.
- 6437 (100%) get a ticket and 0 (0%) get no ticket at all.

For the 6438 orders willing to pay for Tier 3:
- 3334 (51.8%) get Tier 1 tickets.
- 3104 (48.2%) get Tier 2 tickets.
- 0 (0%) get Tier 3 tickets.
- 6438 (100%) get a ticket and 0 (0%) get no ticket at all.

Of the 40000 tickets for sale, only 16208 are sold.
Of the 19312 orders placed, 3104 go unfulfilled.

[remi]

I'm going to say 19,312 people registered for the main sale. We'll get our tickets.

But at which tiers did they select? Let me open up "Snarky Ticketing Douchebag.ods" and assume an even split ...

For the 6437 orders willing to pay for Tier 1:
- 3333 (51.8%) get tickets.
- 3104 (48.2%) get no ticket at all.

For the 6437 orders willing to pay for Tier 2:
- 3333 (51.8%) get Tier 1 tickets.
- 3104 (48.2%) get Tier 2 tickets.
- 6437 (100%) get a ticket and 0 (0%) get no ticket at all.

For the 6438 orders willing to pay for Tier 3:
- 3334 (51.8%) get Tier 1 tickets.
- 3104 (48.2%) get Tier 2 tickets.
- 0 (0%) get Tier 3 tickets.
- 6438 (100%) get a ticket and 0 (0%) get no ticket at all.

Of the 40000 tickets for sale, only 16208 are sold.
Of the 19312 orders placed, 3104 go unfulfilled.

Your forgot to include a column for declined CC/Debit cards... which I assumed is at about 5%.

EDIT.. wait, I'm guessing that's what the Of the 19312 orders placed, 3104 go unfulfilled is about... too early... my bad.

[Dustdevil]

My guess is that 48,174 people have registered for total ticket requests of 82,175. While me may only be able to speculate by the number of people who didn't get tickets and their collective outcry, it will make for a strong secondary sales market in June.

[theCryptofishist]

My inside source (a robotic fly on the wall, oh how I love my flybot) tells me that 2864 people have entered the lottery.


One problem with my flybot is that in order to save weight, there isn't much memory.

[Zhust]

EDIT.. wait, I'm guessing that's what the Of the 19312 orders placed, 3104 go unfulfilled is about... too early... my bad.

Actually I didn't count declined credit cards.

I was just using the formula for the way the sale of tiered tickets has been set up as confirmed by trilobyte in this thread. Everyone who put in an order is in the running for Tier 1, so the 10,000 tickets get split up evenly among everyone. But then when the tickets are distributed for Tier 2 and Tier 3, the people who only picked Tier 1 and didn't get a ticket in the first round won't get a ticket at all. (Then the same with Tier 2.) So although fewer than 40,000 tickets were ordered, not all orders will be filled.

[Dr. Pyro]

I don't know whether to take you people seriously or not.

[trilobyte]

I'd take the armchair event production and ticket distribution theory stuff with a humongous grain of salt.

[Just_Joe]

I'd take the armchair event production and ticket distribution theory stuff with a humongous grain of salt.

Top or bottom of the shaker? and just how big *is* the shaker?
...and does it include scholarship "sweat of the brow" salt?

[theCryptofishist]

I don't know whether to take you people seriously or not.

People? I don't see any people...

[jcoffy]

Wow, This thread has created quite a stir. I guess we only have to wait a few more days and it will mostly clear up. Hold your breathe, cross your fingers, prey, dance around naked, give gifts, stress out, eat, stress out some more.....It will all be handled. The one thing I like about the 'new process' for buying a ticket is that it has definitely created more chances for people to have discussion and dialogue. So that is nice.
I hope every single one of you gets the tickets you hope to get! And please come check out my camp this year. I am working very hard on it already.
I am making a gift each day. That started at Burn night last year. Then I am making a small painting about each gift experience. I will be doing this until burn day this year. At which point I plan to give all 365 (really 363) paintings away. People who get a painting can check out my blog when they get back to default world and see what gift inspired their painting. Check it out here - http://www.theGiftProlific.com Feedback is super appreciated. Thanks.

I can't wait till Tuesday to find out!

Jcoffy - http://www.theGiftProlific.com

Also looking to recruit people to make this happen!